Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Dinan]

76 and 90 is a long way... specially 90 .....


so SR, whats the plan? still holding HOD or you getting into HOu now

[SilverRex]

one note as to why I still believe in the US dollar rally, look at oil. its quite crystal clear that oil is in the final stages of reaching 5th wave top.

what I thought was a truncated 5th when oil started to collasp a week ago was merely within a larger 5 wave structure.

yes the ultimate clue that oil will emark on a very steep decline to a larger degree will be that oil breaking below the larger up trend line. but short term oil's upside will be limited. If you take the typical wave V equals wave I, then that will put oil at about 79 which is also above the 38% fibo level at around 76.

So while short term oil is bullish, the max upside would be between 75-79 then I think it will be finished. Of course you can also apply certain limitations such as wave 3 is always the longest and never shorter than wave 1 and 5, there fore by knowing this oil should not exceed above 86.67

This is why I think the dollar is closer to a bottom than it is beginning a new wave down much lower. Look for the market to top out in the next 2-3 weeks then this bear market rally should be over.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil082109.jpg

[Dinan]

are you guys getting out of HOD???

[Super_Geo]

Crude Oil Rises to Highest Level This Year as Equities Advance


By Rachel Graham

Aug. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures in New York advanced to the highest price this year, following rising equity markets on speculation that the global recession is easing.

Oil headed for the biggest weekly gain since May as European equities and U.S. stock futures gained. The euro strengthened against the dollar after German services and French manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in August, buoying the appeal of commodities as a hedge against inflation.

“People are moving back to equities, commodities and credit markets,” said Kaha Kiknavelidze, a managing partner at London-based Rioni Capital Partners LLP, a hedge fund specializing in emerging markets. “There is concern about the dollar.”

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as $1.57, or 2.15 percent, to $74.48 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the highest intraday price for a contract nearest to expiration since Oct. 21.

The contract traded at $73.81 as of 1:45 p.m. London time. A close at that level would mean a rise of 9.3 percent this week.

Nymex September futures expired yesterday at $72.54. The switchover to October crude as the front month contract helped put oil prices near their previous highest level of the year.

“While equities remain positively oriented the crude price will also remain firm,” Harry Tchilinguirian, senior oil market analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London, said by phone.

In London, Brent crude oil for October settlement added $1.32 to $74.30 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange as of 1:45 p.m. local time.

Oil Survey

Oil futures may fall next week on speculation that a rise in U.S. jobless claims signals the economy will be slow to improve, according to a weekly Bloomberg survey.

Twenty-one of 38 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said futures will decline through Aug. 28. Eight respondents, or 21 percent, forecast that the market will rise and nine said prices will be little changed. Last week, 50 percent of analysts said oil would drop.

The U.S. Energy Department reported on Aug. 19 that crude inventories last week fell 8.4 million barrels to 343.6 million barrels, contrary to analyst expectations for a rise of 1.2 million barrels.

OPEC members will ship the same amount of oil in the four weeks to Sept. 5 as they did in the previous month, consultant Oil Movements said.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will export 22.59 million barrels a day by sea in the four-week period, the Halifax, England-based consultant, which calculates shipments by keeping a tally of tanker rental accords, said yesterday. That’s the same as in the four weeks to Aug. 8.

OPEC’s adherence to production quotas has slipped during the past four months, according to Bloomberg estimates. The group’s next policy-setting meeting is Sept. 9.

We will see where this goes...

[KRZY403]

i honestly dont know why im still holding hod...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by KRZY403
i honestly dont know why im still holding hod...

you think thats bad, i'm still holding HNU :(

[SilverRex]

^ I Think if oil is to make higher and so is dow, hnu should have a mini rally. but dont expect the rally be in sync with the market. I think too often NG rallies when there is a sell off in the market place.

no surprise at all for this morning's reaction to the market shooting up, gold up, oil up.

as I said yesterday, all the main support has been broken. (for dollar) so market wants to head higher. and so it did.

I dont expect it to go up every day for 3 weeks either. there are going to be pull backs, especially take gold for example, its stopping at 957 (previous supprt/ressitance) and continues to provide short term resistance, but price can easily turn around and retest the break out in the 40s,

while I expect short term all sectors is bullish, but for the dollar I Think you will see more of a side way grind, so when the dollar tanks, everything shoots much higher, but when the dollar drives upward, all sector sell off will be short and limited.

as for hod, I am hedging with hou equal amount until oil looks to top out in the range I suggested then I will let hou go and double up my hod

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^ I Think if oil is to make higher and so is dow, hnu should have a mini rally. but dont expect the rally be in sync with the market. I think too often NG rallies when there is a sell off in the market place.

we had few sell offs in the lasst week or soo and HNU didn't move at all... i'll take any rally i can get, just want to take some shares out with a smaller loss...


what should we do with HOD? i'm in at 10.91, should i get out.. or wait for a small pull back and get out...

[997TT]

back in HZD at $18.77

Have flipped it 3x for gains ... SR is da man.

I dont' know why but whenever i buy/sell HZD through TD it never shows up in both volume/last trade price.

Oh well...as long as my account activitiy is right i could care less what TD does.

C'mon HOU ... get to $74.75 so i can dump

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
back in HZD at $18.77

Have flipped it 3x for gains ... SR is da man.

I dont' know why but whenever i buy/sell HZD through TD it never shows up in both volume/last trade price.

Oh well...as long as my account activitiy is right i could care less what TD does.

C'mon HOU ... get to $74.75 so i can dump

already shorting silver already? it be worth holding out a bit longer for a higher level short.

[Super_Geo]

Existing homes sales stats comes out in 5 mins... should move things.

[Dinan]

shouldn't silver rally too with the market???

[KRZY403]

Originally posted by Dinan


you think thats bad, i'm still holding HNU :(

wow thought everyone dumped that yesterday.:nut:
nothing to see today. going back to sleep

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex


already shorting silver already? it be worth holding out a bit longer for a higher level short.

15$ silver or is that too much??

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan
shouldn't silver rally too with the market???

Most posts i read says gold/silver should fall medium term.

ST is anybody's guess.

Plus i last sold my shares at $20.19 so getting it back in the $18's is nice. Sure i could hold out ...but i'm looking for $0.7-$1.5 share and Silver has been good to me so far.

[SilverRex]

^ true

I've sold all my spot silver at 13.50-13.80s will look for at least 14.50+ to begin my short accumalation

[Dinan]

sr you bought HOU?

[997TT]

maybe i should've waited a bit longer ... lol

HOU is a monster .... sweet.

[SilverRex]

^ yup again to hedge short term

[Red@8]

I bailed out of HOD this morning and got into HOU. Looks like I did something right today.

997TT are we going to officially declare HOD as our 2nd disaster?

[997TT]

Originally posted by Red@8
I bailed out of HOD this morning and got into HOU. Looks like I did something right today.

997TT are we going to officially declare HOD as our 2nd disaster?

oh crap ... we're in the same stock again. lol

i'm close to selling HOU ... to avoid potentially owning the same stock as you. lol

[SilverRex]

with the euro very over bought and dollar very over sold. even if the rally has more legs I think one more push higher for gold and euro should be done for the day. because that would imply the us dollar index to be near the 77.44 support. I dont expect this area to break on first attampt, and if my larger correction bottoming for dollar happens, this must hold anways. so look for a good shorting opportunity for hold above 957

[Dinan]

is 77.80 some support for the US$ ???


i'm the only one that hasn't bailed on HOD lol


i guess we had a small rally for HNU and now it's heading back down :facepalm:

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Dinan
is 77.80 some support for the US$ ???


i'm the only one that hasn't bailed on HOD lol


i guess we had a small rally for HNU and now it's heading back down :facepalm:

Hey don't feel bad about your HOD, mine hit stops at 10.4 then it proceeded to go right back up. :banghead:

[Super_Geo]

Dinan, I'm still in HOD.

I got more right after the home sales data at 10.42 as oil hit 74.70 and then started coming back down. My one gut feeling that paid off this week (has been ugly for me... haha, short position in HNU, long position in HOD)... home sales numbers were good, but not outside of analyst's expectations and oil overreacted to the news.

I think the market hasn't reacted to the jobless claims numbers enough yet. The US uses 25% of the world's oil, and if their unemployment numbers truly are increasing (as they have been in the past couple of weeks) then consumer retail spending is going to take a prolonged hit. People can't buy things if they don't have jobs. If jobless claims increase next week, I'd expect considerable downward pressure on oil.

This, of course, comes with the caveat that the US dollar can't shit the bed. If it does, I don't know where that'll put oil... haha, that's SR's area of expertise.

[Dinan]

come on give me another 30 cents to get out even or soo... or i should just take a 40 cent loss :(

[SilverRex]

interesting that the euro suddenly turned around

could be attributed to the over bought, however the market is in a bit of a shit show I will have to wait until the closing of today to see what happens. refrain going in other directions until other wise.

[skandalouz_08]

I'm still in HOD, I'm gonna hold off selling for now. I got in way too early at 11 and 11.50 and didn't have stops set so now I'm kicking myself. Wait for today to see if I buy HOU to hedge my bet or stay with HOD and wait for it to come back a bit.

[superboyazn]

I bought in at 12...

We almost have hold to see what monday brings. Otherwise risk absorbing the loss. Or sell and buy in again if it gets even lower.

[Vanish3d]

still in HOD as well. Im in at 11.6.... so i refuse to take a $1+/shr loss.....

[Dinan]

i had my chance to get out with a small loss, but i didn't take it :(

[guessboi]

i haven't made a single trade this week. I dunno what to bet on. all mixed info. :nut:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by guessboi
i haven't made a single trade this week. I dunno what to bet on. all mixed info. :nut:

are you holding your HNU shares or you going to bail ??

i got 2600 shares at about 5.7 :(

:facepalm:

[Bisklimpkit]

I have 450 HOD @ 11.97 and 1000 HNU @ 4.26. So you're not alone in anything, Dinan! I'm planning on holding all until at least break-even. So I may never sell...

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan


are you holding your HNU shares or you going to bail ??

i got 2600 shares at about 5.7 :(

:facepalm:

Damn Dinan, your down more than me. haha ... and i got torched on 15k shares. Glad i put that $3.05 stop in....pos commodity.

Sold HOU ... have no idea if oil is going up more or going to tank.
i see the rest of today as a write off so if i take a position its really for next week.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


Damn Dinan, your down more than me. haha ... and i got torched on 15k shares. Glad i put that $3.05 stop in....pos commodity.

Sold HOU ... have no idea if oil is going up more or going to tank.
i see the rest of today as a write off so if i take a position its really for next week.

u bought 15k shares ?? didn't you buy them over 4$ ??


yeah i'm down a shit load :banghead:

[guessboi]

I am holding my HNU @ 5.67. Eventually in the longer term, natural gas price will go back up otherwise natural gas production company will not survive.

[997TT]

HND $17.07 ... holy fk.

one of us step up and buy the darn thing. Its like a freaking gold mine.

[Dinan]

yeah NG is fucked,,,, no one is touching HNU but neither HND...

[Dinan]

i wish i wasn't kidding when i said i need to buy HND the other day....:banghead:

[Vanish3d]

fk i remember back when HND was around 10 and i posted debating whether to get into HOD or HND.... but i chose HOD... fuck me!

[Dinan]

wow,i'm getting smoked with HNU... whats with this sell off now??

[997TT]

HNU is fkd. i'm buying HND on the next 0.2 dip.

The watch the money come in ...day after day.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
HNU is fkd. i'm buying HND on the next 0.2 dip.

The watch the money come in ...day after day.

haha, that means ng HAS to move upp, LOL,, don't count on that... just buy now lol

[Dinan]

lets see if 3.15NG holds and gives us some kinda fucken bounce here :nut:

[eljefe]

damn look at the spread between October and November- major canfukingtango October 3.23 and November at 4.21

[guessboi]

fcuk HND. keeps going higher and higher. :banghead:

[Z_Fan]

I just bought some HNU at $2.78.

If you would have told me 10 days ago HNU was going to go from $5.40 to $2.74 I would have thought you were crazy. Not impossible, but seemingly unlikely.

I wonder how low it will go now that I've bought some shares!

[Red@8]

Just got out of HOU for a $21 profit. Watch and learn people! :nut:

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by Red@8
Just got out of HOU for a $21 profit. Watch and learn people! :nut:

Profit is profit.

$21 is a whole lot more than -$1860.00 which is my situation on HOD in just a couple short days!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I just bought some HNU at $2.78.

If you would have told me 10 days ago HNU was going to go from $5.40 to $2.74 I would have thought you were crazy. Not impossible, but seemingly unlikely.

I wonder how low it will go now that I've bought some shares!

hahah, why did you tell me this, now i'm thinking about buying some MORE too :(:banghead: :devil:

[bg_27]

you guys are crazy to keep buying NG bear or bull. What are you basing these decisions on?

[Z_Fan]

I had some money sitting in cash and decided WHAT THE FUCK, I might as well piss that away.

:poosie:

And so in lieu of posting that picture of the roulette wheel...that's my rationale. :devil:

[997TT]

Originally posted by Red@8
Just got out of HOU for a $21 profit. Watch and learn people! :nut:

This might be the start of a new trend where we both buy winners.

i sold HOU too. slighty bigger gain than $21 though :thumbsup:

If i can get $17, i'm going to buy HND. Need it to pull back a bit.

[guessboi]

$21. :rofl: profit is profit right??? $21 is a good lunch.

[Red@8]

^ I made the same joke earlier with one of my friends.

997TT if we can both get in on the same stock next week and turn a profit I may become a believer. Especially if I can make back some of what i lost in HNU and HOD this week.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by eljefe
damn look at the spread between October and November- major canfukingtango October 3.23 and November at 4.21

yeah man. That's HuGE! :eek:


Originally posted by guessboi
fcuk HND. keeps going higher and higher. :banghead:

Nat gas strikes again.

:devil:

It makes me selling my HNU at $4.50 a smart choice. :nut:

[997TT]

taking a position in HOU ...order just filled at $9.61.

technically, by breaking $73.38 I expect a push towards $75.

lets go oil
:clap:

[Dinan]

^^ you do technical analysis too ???


well so much for a NG rally,,,, fck it, i'm not buying, was close to buy in at 2.76 but i said fuck it lol... i hope i was wrong and it shoots up monday ... but most likely i'll be dreaming..

[SilverRex]

^ thats why once NG made the last pop to 4.16, it was done and it was so ready to retest the low at 3.22, however what made NG even more deadly is the fact of the roll over when front contract NG hit 3.30, it jumped back to 3.80 because of the next month coming in, then the entire drop process repeated it self dropping day after day.

its all in the technicality of the contango

I still recall when hou went from 10 bucks to 2 bucks did a reverse plit back to 10, went up to 16 then nose dive to 4. if it hadnt been for a reverse split it hou would have hit like 25 cents sort of speak.

I still remember few weeks ago I said NG is just too volatile, and giving the chart is very bearish, if I had to bet I would short it. now i regret not puting my money where my mouth is lol

have a good weekend, i'll be in red deer at the vex this sunday.

hopefully next week will be a good week ;)

[Dinan]

so what you think now SR, Ng is at 3.22 or so now... could we finally see some up movement.... ?

[Dinan]

Oil Must Clear $73 or Face 25% Drop in Coming Weeks: Technical Analysis


Well it looks like we closed over 73.40 so 75 here we come! Looks like us hod holders will get burned on monday! :(

[bg_27]

just read on globe and mail, that NG is at its lowest price since Aug 2002, which if you think about it wasn't that long ago, and since then, the availability of NG supply has increased.

Quote from the article:
But analysts say more supply will have to be pulled out of the market before there is a balance between supply and demand.

A cool summer in eastern North America has meant much less demand for air conditioning that would have sucked up natural-gas-fuelled electricity. And the annual worry about hurricanes has also abated, with a calm season forecast. The proportion of North American gas that comes from the Gulf of Mexico is shrinking as massive new supplies of onshore “shale gas” come to fruition.

In Alberta, on the Natural Gas Exchange, the price is $2.37 (Canadian) and could fall toward $1, some analysts have predicted.

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/natural-gas-price-sinks-to-lowest-in-7-years/article1259064/

[bg_27]

Hitler Misses the bull market:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqkn1tviGMM

[DJ_NAV]

oil already up in 74's already.

[Inzane]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
oil already up in 74's already.

FAWK!!!!!!.......... says a HOD holder.

Damn. At least I only have 400 shares at the moment.

[in*10*se]

i guess my company got bought out :)
options vest :)

HPX.TO

:D :D :D :D

[Dinan]

Thanks for the heads up, before, lol

Originally posted by in*10*se
i guess my company got bought out :)
options vest :)

HPX.TO

:D :D :D :D

[davidI]

Does GAS.TO have the same contango / rollover issues as HNU would. It looks like they're already into the October contract for 20% and 80% September. Do they do a 3-day rollover like HNU does?

[SilverRex]

ok monday a new week, let see what things are looking up to this morning.

I'll talk about the dollar index first. Because this chart would be the most important and would indeed setup how the other sectors going to perform for the next few months

after the dollar broke down a important up trend line I expected it to crash thru 78.12, and it did exactly that. however price has since rallied off neasr 77.80 and as a thought 77.86 seems to be an important weekly chart number, so closing above this gave the dollar a bit of a holdiong mode.

However if the 77.44 last seen two weeks ago is to be the low of the year, then not only does 77.44 needs to hold I think we need to see the dollar make an aggressive rally. The current alt count would be seen as a very large ABC correction, and in order to confirm this , we need to be patient and wait for dollar to break above the 200 day EMA as well as the supply trend line in red currently at about 78.60 because if we dont, the there is a very high chance that the dollar index will want to test the 77.44 support.

While I have my own expecation this morning, it is my take that we must wait a bit longer to see the the dollar is trying to do (a, break down to new lows, b) make a double bottom or c) produce a larger correction.

because we will have plenty of time to get into the market by waiting for the right signal, blindly jumping in now may be dangerous but at the same time based on my expecation this week you can still swing trade with tight stop.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar082409.jpg

now for oil, it was an alarm bell going off ever since it broke thru 70, let alone the 71.54 down supply trend line last week. And ever since price has been hoving around near 74 most of the time. If you recall many weeks ago, I did call for oil to reach the range of 74-79. But when it crashed down from 73, it did looked like we had a famous truncated 5th wave double top. but how things have changed and now that same idea is back on the table.

But until I see what the dollar is trying to do this week oil may be a tough read at the moment, but if I must analysis this chart, I would view oil to continue rising unless it breaks down below this morning low at about 73.57, and when that happens, it would confirm we may have a short term break down, knowing stoch and MACD is negative, I expect a drop today to levels between 70-72 mainly because we completed what looked like a 5 wave pattern marked by i thru v, and so oil (assuming it is still in uptrend) should retrace to prior wave iii and iv before taking off again. but it can be equally bearish if oil takes out 70, then we may have completed an early top above 74.

however until that happens, I expect oil to find a top between 74-79. But there is a worse case scenario, I mention on friday that the max pain for oil could go as high as mid 86 given the fact our wave III oil from 45-73 gave us 28 dollars. And using the EW theory that wave 1 and 5 shouldnt be longer than wave 3, that will put wave 5 no more than 86.67. But so far I Dont see this happening but I Cannot rule it out technically either. if you look at oil's recent rally from 58, you can clearly see what appears to be a 4 waves completed. so we are and should be in the final stage of completing a sub wave 5 top to mark the end of oil's bear market rally there fore the range of 74-79 appears very logical.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil082409.jpg

now while every sector broke out to new monthly highs including oil, dow, the one sector that appears quite underperforming is gold. can you believe it gold is still under 1000? so only two things can happen, either gold is waiting to breaking big time, or the depressed value is telling everyone something is about to happen. while the 957 offer a good resistance and is still doing so this morning, because I expected the market to drop today then rally for the rest of the week, gold may head down first to the area between 937-945 then rally. but over all the key thing to watch is price above 971 or price below 937. if below 937 then gold's big drop could begin early but if gold breaks above 971, then we need to watch it closely as the bearish stance now becomes neutral and if gold crosses 991, then we could have a break out on our hands. otherwise my view towards gold continues to favor the down side

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold082409.jpg

final chart to boot is the dow, dow has been on an impressive run ever since it touched 8100, there was so much momentum that it did not even complete a healthy retracement. if everyone recall when dow was dropping, I expected it to hit the 7500s, but it ended at 8100, and I said if it breaks 8400 and to confirm above 8600 it would set up a nice run towards 9400. And so we have achieved that target. but when will dow end?

there are many view, one would be the cyclist're forecast that last week aug17-22 was a turn date and the market is suppose to give its final thrust into september 15. which is 3 weeks.

couple the fact my expectation in EW also calls for a top some where above 9400 to no more than 10300 based on price projection in purple and the abvious abc correction. Dow is indeed closer to the top than it is a bottom imo.

I am expecting it to either this morning, today or tomorrow to test the break out around 9400, then make another run higher. unless it breaks new high first then the correction I Was hoping for may have already came and gone.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow082409.jpg

[997TT]

Hou owners time to make some money ....

Silver up overnight. Fawk.

[SilverRex]

yeah off last week's chart didnt I said silver has more up to go? you shorted silver right after it broke out, hence momentum was going to the other side.

[sputnik]

Originally posted by davidI
Does GAS.TO have the same contango / rollover issues as HNU would. It looks like they're already into the October contract for 20% and 80% September. Do they do a 3-day rollover like HNU does?

GAS.TO tracks the NGX Spot Day Index. So while the index can move slightly as months rollover, for the most part it tracks AECO spot day gas.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
yeah off last week's chart didnt I said silver has more up to go? you shorted silver right after it broke out, hence momentum was going to the other side.

i remember that, you also said around 14.50 is a good short right???

should i take a 50 cent loss on HOD and buy HZD instead or should i wait, maybe oil will pull back to 72, which will be green fro me on HOD...?

[Dinan]

can't believe my eyes, NG is UP :D

[SilverRex]

right now oil, silver and euro even gold are all near a resistance, either it will break above and shoot higher or it will turn around and drop a swing point can be had with tight stop

[Dinan]

what about silver ??? whats a better short now? silver or oil,.... do i get out of hod and get into hzd or wait??

[davidI]

Originally posted by sputnik


GAS.TO tracks the NGX Spot Day Index. So while the index can move slightly as months rollover, for the most part it tracks AECO spot day gas.

Yea, that's what I had thought but reading the claymore website is confusing me.

http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/etf/fund/gas

TOP FUND HOLDINGS
as of 8/21/09
AECO NATURAL GAS CONTRACT SEPT302009 80.44 %

AECO NATURAL GAS CONTRACT OCT3109 19.56 %


NGX Canadian Natural Gas Index
The NGX Canadian Natural Gas Index replicates an exposure to the monthly contract (1-month spot price) for physical natural gas for delivery on the TransCanada Mainline (AECO/NIT) in Alberta, that is rolled to the next contract prior to delivery. AECO is the most liquid physical natural gas delivery point in Canada. The index is posted daily at www.ngx.com.

Now I'm confused as to how it works!! Does it track the daily spot price, 1-month spot price or some combination of the 1-month spot price and forward month spot price (with what sort of rollover!?)

Haha, damn these ETFs. I should know better than to play with something I don't completely understand lol.

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan
can't believe my eyes, NG is UP :D

dont look now... HND has come back from $16.60 to being even now.

wow

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


dont look now... HND has come back from $16.60 to being even now.

wow

hahaha, so much for that!!!


ui got into HND

[997TT]

no, didnt have the balls to buy this morning when it opened down and continued to free fall.

just added some more HZD at $18.06. But again, netiher volume or last trade price updated when i buy via TD.

[Dinan]

how many shares?? i don't see any volume on it either....



i see 1k shares at 18.16

[djfob]

hmm what does everyone think of HNU at 2.84? I'm so tempted but it looks like theres room to move lower.

[bg_27]

Originally posted by djfob
hmm what does everyone think of HNU at 2.84? I'm so tempted but it looks like theres room to move lower.

My opinion is to wait until the downward trend stops and the upward trend has started and established itself. Don't try and time the bottom, as you said there is room to move lower.

[Dinan]

SR, how much higher do you think silver can go?

[sputnik]

Originally posted by davidI


Yea, that's what I had thought but reading the claymore website is confusing me.

http://www.claymoreinvestments.ca/etf/fund/gas

TOP FUND HOLDINGS
as of 8/21/09
AECO NATURAL GAS CONTRACT SEPT302009 80.44 %

AECO NATURAL GAS CONTRACT OCT3109 19.56 %


NGX Canadian Natural Gas Index
The NGX Canadian Natural Gas Index replicates an exposure to the monthly contract (1-month spot price) for physical natural gas for delivery on the TransCanada Mainline (AECO/NIT) in Alberta, that is rolled to the next contract prior to delivery. AECO is the most liquid physical natural gas delivery point in Canada. The index is posted daily at www.ngx.com.

Now I'm confused as to how it works!! Does it track the daily spot price, 1-month spot price or some combination of the 1-month spot price and forward month spot price (with what sort of rollover!?)

Haha, damn these ETFs. I should know better than to play with something I don't completely understand lol.

Playing around with ETF that utilize commodities indices and futures is risky if you don't understand how they work.

I worked for 6 years at NGX a while back so I know a bit about how it works.

If you want to know more about how NGX calculates their index prices, here is a doc about their methodology.

http://www.ngx.com/pdf/NGXPIMG.pdf

Check out the section pertaining to "AB-NIT Month Ahead Indices".

[997TT]

if anything i'm considering HND at $16.44 ...

lol. Why do i even bother with NG? its been such a drain on my portfolio. Even with a few good gains in there i'm pretty sure i'm down a lot more than i'm up.

[Dinan]

damn NG is holing greeN...HAHAHA, hope it's not just a short covering.... few more days like this and i can take some shares out :D

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Dinan
damn NG is holing greeN...HAHAHA, hope it's not just a short covering.... few more days like this and i can take some shares out :D

Short covering natural gas?

[guessboi]

HNU is still up. :clap: is this the bottom? :rofl:

[997TT]

cmon oil take out $75.26 resistance.

Set a stop at in case all hell breaks loose and oil corrects. As we've seen when it corrects it falls $3+ in a day.

HND taking a $hit kicking. Z_fan cashing in on his buy friday.
nice play HNU alsmot back to my stop at $3.05.

wonder if this is the start of a pop or simply an opp to get HND cheaper?

[Dinan]

HNU over 3, lol yayyyyy :D could this be cause of the bad weather we been having lately? maybe some gas leaks here and there, i know there was one here in toronto when we had the tornado touch down, and we had or still have bill on our east coast, that could have done something...


there goes oil now, should have pulled the trigger and took the loss already...

:dunno:

[Super_Geo]

Haha interesting predicament with NG... HNU or HND?

October NG is at 3.36, we can still see a downside in gas given that Sept gas is in the high-$2s. But then again there's also some healthy upside too.

What's really scary is Novermber... it's currently at 4.32. There's a shitload of downside possible if industrial use doesn't step it up, if we keep on putting gas into storage that 4.32 gas is going to fall real quick.

WTF is a guy to do... prices are so cheap at the moment, but the contango is just brutal.

[997TT]

commodity ETF's just stopped dead in their tracks.

HGD shot up,
HND shot up
HOD went up
HZD shot up.

TCK dropped $0.7

[Dinan]

damn i was about to short silver and it just drop like a rock!!!

[Dinan]

well the markets are selling off like SR said, damn so is NG....

[Meback]

Originally posted by Dinan
damn i was about to short silver and it just drop like a rock!!!


that means you buy MORE!!!:D

[Z_Fan]

Originally posted by 997TT
Z_fan cashing in on his buy friday.

Not exactly. I bought 400 shares. LMAO!

[DJ_NAV]

Whats website you use for live commodity prices? been using bloomberg but it has a 15 min. delay.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan


Not exactly. I bought 400 shares. LMAO!

hope you have a stop set, dropping back down again :facepalm: