Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
so you think silver will make new highs too...?? it closed under the trend line on the daily and just under the hourly charts too....


hahaha, i bought at 2.60 too, you only think will hit 3$ ??

well I am surprise that despite the big fall of the dollar and rise of the euro, the rally for silver and gold is relatively weak in comparison. such weakness could limit the upside potential for these two pairs.

I took my profit for silver a few hours ago when the chart was about to turn bullish, and sure enough it rose, I will wait for a higher short or a break down below 14.05 which ever comes first.

[Dinan]

i see... i was up .20 cents but now i'm back where i started :(

14.05 is a good support should have gotten out myself too...

[Z_Fan]

LOL I had to go out today. Sold my HOD ... all of it ... at $11.50 and was worried. But not any more LOL. Would have lost a lot of cash if I would have held it. So I'm happy. Was going to buy HNU at 2.57 this AM but that stock still sucks ass IMO. We'll see, but I can see it tanking further.

[997TT]

coincidently i sold all my silver today as well. In the short time that i've traded it, its all about entry price.

With my initial buy i had to average down just to get out.

cmon TCK ... run back to $28+

[SilverRex]

alright finally its a friday. let see what oil looks like this morning. yesterday I suggested oil would break down if it heads below 70.50 unfortunately it was held up from a previous support near 69.80, so price at the end rallied off the previous broken down trend line. but no matter I was expecting price to move back into the 73 area anyways. now that price is near our target between 73-73.50, this area will be very important, notice how it is currently just under the uptrend line intersecting near 73.50? well if 73.50 gives away, then oil would likely want to head back to near 75 or higher. otherwise this area would and should be worth a look at being a good swing pt high knowing stoch is heavily overbought.

of course the dollar index made a huge break down yesterday, thus pending how the dollar holds up, oil could also break out, but right now if all things play out the way it should, I expect oil price to more likely hold around 73 area before falling.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil082809.jpg


now for gold, because the directionless of the dollar, I only recommend playing gold repsect to their swing pts. as seen price did rally off our nearest swing pt low circled area, and now price is right up against an upper swing pt high, while the break down of the US dollar is fueling gold's early morning rise and it appears ready to break out around the 952 area, I will still use this as a swing pt high, you can play it safely be shorting it here with stop against this morning's high just about over 953. if 953 gives away then look for next swing pt high near 957s.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold082809.jpg

and finally onto the dollar index, when it broke above 78.50, I thought the sail was clear, unfortunately the break down is giving me concern this ABC larger correction may be at stake. and price is currently testing a very important up trend line. initially the index held up after touching near 77.86 which is an important weekly number. so I would suggest this is the land in the sand if 77.86 gives away, then the dollar will have quite alot of momentum trying to test 77.44 as well as breaking below it.

Cyclist suggested a turn date on sept 15 for the market and he also targets by the 15th the dollar would hit 74. so far it appears probable, but until it happens, we wont know for sure. we only require confirmation and that is to resume our corrective struture that the dollar bottom at 77.44 is intact, dollar must quickly get back above 78.50, otherwise I would hold off on any longer term bets at the moment and focus only on intraday movement or swing trades and that is dollar at 77.90 (trend line), or 77.44 (support)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar082809.jpg

[Dinan]

damn, silver just shot up! and NG tanked....

[SilverRex]

^ yes I said if silver at 14.35 doesnt hold, this it will head higher.

but now that it shot up, gold near 957, 957-961 is a critical area I would attampt to short gold at this level with stop above 961 because its a good swing pt high

[Dinan]

well it looks overbought at the moment, would it be good to short silver too?


are you going to sell hnu at the open now thats below yesterdays low?

[SilverRex]

^ im going give NG no lower than 3 dollars on the oct contract. might bail if it heads lower

[Dinan]

is just under 15$ silver a good resistance to short?

[997TT]

Dinan, i'm no silver expert but once silver broke 14.70 all bets are off.

I know last time it got to $15 that was a great entry point if i had to pick a side, i would go long with a stop.

It was different when silver was under $14.35.

futures, oil, gold, silver all up. C'mon TCK...give me that 5% day.

[SilverRex]

well after silver broke pass 14.35, it was clearly headed up so we got the pop

looking at the chart, if my count is correct, silver is onto a sub wave 3 of 5 in an ABC correction. since we are right up against a previous up trend line channel, silver should turn around here, make a bit of a pull back, shoot higher for a double top or complete its wave 5 then collasp. that is just my view

silver's drop could come sooner if price can break below 14.40 to end this EW short term bullish out look.

but with this said, the dollar has to respect the 77.86 and 77.44 support. otherwise a break down to new lows in the dollar could easily overwrite my count and force further upside movement.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver082809.jpg

[cosmok]

Are you shorting silver and gold through a forex account?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok
Are you shorting silver and gold through a forex account?

yup shorting silver with a tight stop

[Dinan]

where is your stop SR?

[SilverRex]

probablly above 14.90,

added another position near 14.83

1st position at 14.73

gold use your stop above 961

so far oil is still within expectation, it touched 73.52 and is repecting this area.

do or die we are at a critical juncture folks

[Dinan]

^^ thanks.....


damn NG, :facepalm: ... well lets hope it's like you said, an intraday low and then pop's up....



maybe i should buy some HOD.... stop at 73.50 oil :dunno:

[tylere]

Originally posted by Dinan
^^ thanks.....


damn NG, :facepalm: ... well lets hope it's like you said, an intraday low and then pop's up....



maybe i should buy some HOD.... stop at 73.50 oil :dunno:

I picked HOD up at 10.68, let's hope for a breakdown today!

[Dinan]

SR, got out of HNU yet...???:banghead:

[tylere]

Wow! There goes oil

[SilverRex]

^ nop

like I Said yesterday I dont rule out NG may dip lower to 3 bucks for a intraday divergence.

so im holding it for 1-5 days regardless

but so far silver, gold and oil is looking good

[zumba]

Dont know much about financial, but mmmm.... study!!

[Dinan]

you sure did say that....



so i take it 14.54 would be a good support to take profit from the silver short?

[SilverRex]

^ thats what im going to do

[Red@8]

Would it be too much to ask to see HOD back down ~$10.7X


Edit: Looks like I got my wish - picked up some HOD

[Dinan]

damn, NG is just going lower and lower....



HND is near 20$ .. we are so bearish on NG but yet i don't think anyone is holding HND :facepalm:

[Z_Fan]

I bought some HND at $14 sure which I kept it!

Anyhow, I sold my HNU.

Bought some HOD at $10.78 but flipped it at the high $10.9's and now it keeps on running.

Was hoping to catch another down turn, but doesn't look like that's gonna happen.

Bought some HGD too.

[SilverRex]

i dont think I got this lucky before, but 2 days ago when I Expected oil to hit the 73s, I entered an order at 10.67

I got my order this morning, it touched 10.66.

why 10.67? because I expected oil to break no higher than 73.50

and how beautiful is that lol

it was a scary moment eariler when oil was trying to break higher, but so far euro has since came down, and gold is slowly as well off the 957 I mention.

hopefully we are out of danger here for a bit.

[Dinan]

nice, USD just broke out to the up side :D


should see lower oil,gold,silver soon :D

[Red@8]

Oil seems to be all over the place!

[Dinan]

SR, you going to hold your silver short over the weekend?

[guessboi]

I am tempted to get back into HOD around 10.6ish.

[Vanish3d]

got an order for HNU at 2.42.... i kinda hope it doesnt get filled.... i dont even know why im getting into it :banghead:

[Dinan]

something is off.... the USD is moving up but so is oil,gold,silver other then NG:nut:

the euro is breaking down too...

[cosmok]

HGD is kicking my ass and I've been holding since 970 :rofl:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok
HGD is kicking my ass and I've been holding since 970 :rofl:

how? what price did you get in at?

[Dinan]

i don't get it, with the strong dollar why isn't oil,gold,silver pulling back like NG :dunno:

[ballah]

i was out golfing today and this guy was talking bout his latest investment (Dinar)..

it apparently supposed to be a hot item according to this guy, but i have just recently checked into it, and found some people saying that this is a hoax..

anyone know of anything bout this??

Dinar is Iraq currency...

[SilverRex]

ok so last week was a scary moment for the dollar but to my surprise the assumption that the dollar is simply producing a larger ABC correction seems to be intact.

looking at oil this morning, as you can see, there is some what a similarity the last time oil broke down 5-6 dollars. however, will it be this morning? I have suggested 73-73.50 would be a great shorting opportunity last week, and we nail that to the penny at 73.52, so now we are set for a break down.

I am still calling 75 as our wave 5 of 5 completion. meaning as long as 75 holds and short term 73.50 holds. I expect oil to begin a more aggressive sell down, especially when the dollar makes an advance which I will get to just in bit.

depending on what the dollar is trying to do this morning, oil could break down and begin its aggressive drop now, but in the event it does rally because the dollar is pulling back , then look at it as your final chance to short oil

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil083109.jpg

and for gold, I have been calling swing trades all week last week, as clearly price has been bouncing off multiple trend lines in both direction. I also say 957 would be a good place to short but your stop needs to be higher than 961. why? look at it over night, it again too hit that straight on, then collaspe, again similar to oil, depending on what the dollar wants to do, gold could either hold at the nearest down trend line near 950 or break down straight to 947, any rally would be a shorting event, but if you did get in at the 957 as I recommended last week, then it is time to hold in attampt for a break down, breaking below about 944 would be a very good technical clue that gold's drop is also beginning.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold083109.jpg

and also silver, I expected from my own count last week that silver would pull back abit then shoot higher for a divergence and to complete its own subwave 5 of this ABC correction. And so far so good. If the dollar is to rally this week as I am expecting, then gold and silver will drop alot more than you think

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver083109-1.jpg

and finally the dollar which is so important in trading pretty much everything else. the assumption that the dollar is simply in a more stretched out correction noted in ABC is completely in tact. And the break above the supply trend line or above 78.50 would be nail in the coffin, however if because of overbought condition that the dollar would retrace back down, look for a short pull back then break out. so any pull back is a buy back opportunity. I anticipate a break out of the US dollar this week technically.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollartoday-5.jpg


finally I have to show you this the usd/cad pair, it is what I expect and its fulfilling it perfectly. see it is too a ABC correction and now price has since broke above 1.1010, the reason why the loonie broke down further in this large ABC correction is simply hitting the 78.6% retracement. that is what the dollar is doing also, so now I anticipate the dollar to produce a similar scenario once technically it breaks out of the 78.50 funk

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/lonnie083109.jpg

[Dinan]

hey SR, what you planning on doing with HNU?? still going down, under 3$

[SilverRex]

yeah not looking good for NG at the moment, but then again I only have a very small unit will see what happens. NG is quite oversold, I am expecting one more rally especially we are heading into september which typically is a good month for NG.

for those who are heavy in NG, may consider selling out half your position. it would be better to hold oil short then it is NG.

[Dinan]

yeah will look to get into HOD on the next rally...


damn NG:banghead:

[997TT]

i bought some HND on Friday for a quick flip .... had i held i'd be up 5%.

at some point NG has to bounce ...even if its just a 1 day thing.

[Dinan]

it did on thursday, now we are back down, 7 days down and one small day up lol... thats the pattern :(


well i got out of my silver short with a 35$ loss with fees and all...


bought some HGD, but i dunno why it doesn't track the spot price of gold,

[997TT]

HNU is only down 2.5% now from 5% at open if thats any consolation.

lol.

oil and gold just went on a tear .... see how long this intraday run lasts.

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan
it did on thursday, now we are back down, 7 days down and one small day up lol... thats the pattern :(


well i got out of my silver short with a 35$ loss with fees and all...


bought some HGD, but i dunno why it doesn't track the spot price of gold,

HGU/HGD track a group of stocks - Barrick etc. not the price of gold.

Here are some of the stocks in the grouping that HGD/HGU track

1. Barrick Gold Corp. 18.28% 6. Agnico-Eagle Mines 5.47%
2. Goldcorp Inc. 16.63% 7. Gold Fields 5.11%
3. Newmont Mining 12.17% 8. Yamana Gold Inc. 4.19%
4. Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. 8.35% 9. Lihir Gold Ltd. 3.36%
5. Kinross Gold 8.21% 10. Randgold Resources 2.86%

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
HNU is only down 2.5% now from 5% at open if thats any consolation.

lol.

oil and gold just went on a tear .... see how long this intraday run lasts.

so the dollar couldnt break out this morning, hence it is now a small corrective pull back imo

I expect the rally is short lived. so it will be a pop then drop today

update: here we go, oil looks weak, euro is already retraced as much as it needs to

I expect resumption drop begining

[Dinan]

you guys buying anything today....

[SilverRex]

short oil, gold/silver, euro, long usd/cad

[Vanish3d]

i hate stocks!
i got stopped out of HOD at 10.92 on friday, now its up
my stupid buy order got filled for HNU friday, now its down

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
short oil, gold/silver, euro, long usd/cad

short oil at this price???

i got out of my silver short and it pop up so i was kinda happy but it's going down again, thinking about buying back...

[Z_Fan]

Vanish3d I had bought HOD at 10.76 and silly me flipped it at 10.89. Bought it back at 10.79 or something and sold it again at 10.89.

Had I just kept those shares...until today... :poosie:

[Dinan]

^^^you must have bought lots of share to sell for 10 cents profit...

well on the positive side, NG is holding up good, compared to oil...first time, wow... :nut: should be some what of good news

[SilverRex]

phuck., anyone buying WAMUQ.pk?

its breaking out.

well silly me, as I didnt want to offer everyone pink slip penny stock. because it is pure gamble

but if the washington mutal wins the court battle or gets a settleman, the stock will fly 20x

for the record I got in a .082 :)

[davidI]

All the takeover speculation I had expected with UTS is finally heating up. The volumes / price are pretty heavy today! I wonder when SU is going to make a bid...

[Dinan]

^^^ wow, good buy :thumbsup:

[Vanish3d]

^ so SR, u think 0.2 is a good gable then for a few bucks?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
All the takeover speculation I had expected with UTS is finally heating up. The volumes / price are pretty heavy today! I wonder when SU is going to make a bid...

you own any shares?

[SilverRex]

^ to me its either zero or 2-5 bucks imo so gamble what you can afford to loose

[Dinan]

^^^ damn, thats a big gamble, well i'm gambling here with HNU and losing, not sure if i can take more losses here... :(

[Vanish3d]

hmmm hnu is kinda slowly climbing up... maybe we'll see a +1% today which I will instantly put a stop at breakeven

[SilverRex]

wow LEH has gone up 600% since last week

[davidI]

Originally posted by Dinan


you own any shares?

6000 at an avg. cost of $1.61. Been holding for the last few months while it was down around ~$1.50. I figure SU could bid $1.85-$2 and take them out pretty handily. Total was rejected at $1.75.

[davidI]

Oops, I lied, 5000 shares of UTS. Got 6k shares of BCF.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
Oops, I lied, 5000 shares of UTS. Got 6k shares of BCF.

what price u got on BCF,,, whats that all about?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI


6000 at an avg. cost of $1.61. Been holding for the last few months while it was down around ~$1.50. I figure SU could bid $1.85-$2 and take them out pretty handily. Total was rejected at $1.75.

1.61 ?? did you just buy, or you averaged down ??

you think it's still a good buy? how about BCF

[davidI]

I've been holding UTS for a while now. Picked it up after the Total bid fell through and the SU / PCA merger came up. I really can't tell you if it's a good buy anymore...I still think SU / PCA will make a bid at some point here as it makes sense for them to operate 100%, but there are no guarantees.

BCF is a small oil producer. They've got lots of potential but it's more of a long-term hold for me. I may sell if it gets up to $0.85 just because I think oil / TSX are going to take a hit and present a better buying opportunity in the near future.

[rex2009]

lehmq is actually up 600% since last friday... so in 2 days...up 600%

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
I've been holding UTS for a while now. Picked it up after the Total bid fell through and the SU / PCA merger came up. I really can't tell you if it's a good buy anymore...I still think SU / PCA will make a bid at some point here as it makes sense for them to operate 100%, but there are no guarantees.

BCF is a small oil producer. They've got lots of potential but it's more of a long-term hold for me. I may sell if it gets up to $0.85 just because I think oil / TSX are going to take a hit and present a better buying opportunity in the near future.

thanks... i guess u got BCF lot lower.... guess i'll put it on my watch list...

[davidI]

Yea, I've actually been flipping BCF a bit but it's low volume and hasn't seen the same volatility lately so I'm in more of a buy and hold situation now.

UTS is at 3x it's average daily volume now. Still haven't seen anything public or even any rumours online yet, but the reason for the price pop / volume must be takeover talk.

[Vanish3d]

come on HNU you POS !!! be greeeeen ! haha

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
come on HNU you POS !!! be greeeeen ! haha

it's holding good today, im surprised

[Dinan]

damn oil is down 3.30 and NG only .02 :eek: this is really good, don't want to get too happy for nothing, but it's looking strong today...if we didn't have suck a weak day today i think NG would have been up a good amount today..

[Red@8]

I'm up over a $1 a share on HOD right now. Sell finger getting real itchy here.

Who is still holding?

[Rat Fink]

.

[Dinan]

anyone holding HGD, i'm up like 10 cents lol..

[SilverRex]

^ im gunning for 67.50

[Dinan]

seems like oil isn't tracking the USD anymore...

[Rat Fink]

.

[Bisklimpkit]

I'm holding 450 shares of HOD that I picked up too early (@ 11.97). I'd love to see that 67.50 oil SR is talking about to get out of that position...

[997TT]

in HOU at 8.36 (hoping the $69.15 support holds for oil).

[Z_Fan]

I just bought some HOU too.

I'll set a fairly tight stop. Just in case. :poosie:

Dinan I have some HGD too which I'm now up on so I've got a stop in at $6.56 and it's just about to sell. ;)

[Dinan]

SR, why is USD down and so is oil,gold,silver and equities ?

friday was the same, they were all up, only the euro was down, today is opposite , everything is down and euro is up... new trend maybe :dunno:

[Red@8]

Just got stopped out of HOD. No complaints here though.

[Rat Fink]

.

[Z_Fan]

I bought some HND too.

Should have kept my shares from the $14's.

Some of you guys recently bought this in the $9's and bailed on it when it jumped to $11 or so. That's nuts to think it is $20's now.

I'm thinking it's gonna be like HOD and hit $40. :poosie:

[Dinan]

^^ take that back, now LOL

[cosmok]

Oil can't seem to get above $70, lets see a big rejection here

[Dinan]

what the fck... i got a stop for HGD at 6.55, never got filled...

[skandalouz_08]

Just sold HOD as it started coming down again from the 11.98 high. Took a small loss on it but glad to be out. Now I need to invest into something that will make me money, enough of this HNU/HOD stuff.

[Bisklimpkit]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08
Just sold HOD as it started coming down again from the 11.98 high. Took a small loss on it but glad to be out. Now I need to invest into something that will make me money, enough of this HNU/HOD stuff.

I think you'll be kicking yourself for taking a loss on it in a couple of days, but I guess only time will tell.

[skandalouz_08]

You could be right, but I had quite a bit (for myself anyways) tied up in HOD and I knew if I pulled it out now and took the loss I could make it back within the next couple days (or hours)...

[Bisklimpkit]

^ Ah-ha. There was a point when I bought into HNU that I was thinking the same, but then I held on...and held on...and am still hanging on. Good luck to you!

[broken_legs]

oil is selling off because the chinese stock market is tanking.

no china growth = no demand for oil

[Rat Fink]

.

[skandalouz_08]

Chinese firm just bought a portion of Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. for $1.9 Billion, dunno if that will do anything to the markets, but pretty big news.

[Dinan]

^^ thats why CLL and UTS are up...

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


Honestly, when you start getting spooked.....either sell down to your "sleeping point" (only hold what you would be comfortable holding so you can sleep easy at night) or just get out. Sometimes your subconcious recognizes price patterns that your concious mind doesn't recognize and thats a way of warning you.....or you are invested too heavily in one stock (sell to your sleeping point).

Being spooked affects your judgement.....no matter how hindsight plays out in the future I always either sell some or all of my shares when I get spooked irregardless of what people around me are doing. My system, my money, my game. :thumbsup:

EDIT: just to add, preservation of your money is just as important as trying to make more. There's always going to be another trade if you have enough money to make it.

Very true, I know 997's risk tolerance is way higher than mine that's for sure. I'm not worried about sleeping at night, I don't let that affect me, I just need to learn not to get greedy and take the $0.50 cent increases and get out rather than waiting for the $1.00 increases and getting burned.

[Dinan]

damn, as oil is getting stronger NG is getting weaker

[997TT]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08


Very true, I know 997's risk tolerance is way higher than mine that's for sure. I'm not worried about sleeping at night, I don't let that affect me, I just need to learn not to get greedy and take the $0.50 cent increases and get out rather than waiting for the $1.00 increases and getting burned.

I'm also a super pussy when it comes to maxing out profits too.

sold my hou already ... way before current prices.

and picked up some TCK...hope for a gap up tomorrow