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SilverRex
09-03-2009, 01:24 PM
yeah I originally had two position but after the break down this morning, I exited half, I will leave the other half another week, right now the current contract is in its own mind, I will most likely exit all if there is any slight rally.

I am convinced with such huge contanto it is better to go short starting when next month's contract rolls over

foolish for me to try and time a bounce. eating my own words here as I've said, the trend is clearly down and bearish for NG so the only time to act is short on rallies

djayz
09-03-2009, 01:45 PM
So whats the short term outlook on gold? I'm finally up on a 13.90 position I took over a month ago and just looking to clear that out or hang on depending on if we are going to see the burst when we hit 1000 gold or is that when it comes crashing down?

SilverRex
09-03-2009, 01:55 PM
^ is that hgu? or hbu?

rex2009
09-03-2009, 02:26 PM
why good time buy hnd on sept 14??

djayz
09-03-2009, 02:27 PM
Originally posted by SilverRex
^ is that hgu? or hbu?

HGU...still holding will see how things play out tomorrow. Gold is showing some strength still so i've got a stop loss set but whatever comes out of it will be good if it does go past 1000 and shoot up like crazy.

Dinan
09-04-2009, 06:15 AM
well i'm getting the fuck out of HNU, sell at the open or wait for a lil rally lol. yeah a rally, thats what got me in this fucken mess... :banghead:

damn, i never seen a chart like this.... we could have made shitload of $$$ on HND

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NATGAS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p28121432249

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 06:52 AM
ok so today will be an interesting day, with the job report coming out it could move the market or comfirm the worse but no matter its all bout watching the critical price levels regardless of what the news says.

update: unemployment is 9.7% but loss of job is better than expected, i think the unemployment number rising more than expected is actually bad over all.

ok so oil isnt very exicting every since it touched 67, and has since holding above the bottom of the up channel trend line, with stoch open up I expect it to rally alittle to test either support near 69 or the down trend line near 70.50. I would view oil to further increase strengh only if the down trend line is broken to the upside. otherwise I continue to favor the down side when the dust settles. or a break below 68 would quickly confirm the resumption of a down ward move. so over all, get ready to hold onto your hod a bit longer than usual.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil090409.jpg


looking at the dollar index, it has been struggling for some time but yet the up trend line on the bottom is holding nicely and we have had broken 2 fan lines waiting for one final break out to upside. I expect buy on rallies and breaking the last fan line to put the dollar index back to testing 79+ of course this would be bad for the market, oil and hopefully gold which I will explain in a min

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar090409.jpg

while gold's break above 965/971 and even 991 has turned short term bearish to neutral. after revisiting the charts, I still believe gold is in a corrective pattern. reason as follows. yes gold has broken out of a trinagle struture, but recalling EW says trinagle patterns are usually formed in a wave 4 of 5 or wave B of an ABC correction.

therefore while everyone seems to be quite excited for gold's recent run up including myself as I hold physical gold. the fact remains, this could be a mother of all shake out then drop like its hot. I would think again if gold breaks above 1033, but until then, I am going to give the bearish out look one more kick at the can and expect a top to be formed some where between 990-1032. of course if gold in a few weeks or month does come down and break below 925 that would probablly be panic sell signal, but I am a risk taker and if gold is to top out once again near 1000, that would be a gift selling it to an expected bottom to mid 600s to confirm a larger correction sequence. then we will talk 4 digits for good.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold090409.jpg

Dinan
09-04-2009, 07:06 AM
:eek: NG is up 5 cents :eek:

is this a good time to get into HND :dunno:


i hope it stay up like this for the open and i'll put in a stop and let this ride and sell at the end of the day :dunno:


what you think SR?

Dinan
09-04-2009, 07:39 AM
comeon NG give me one last rally before i sell....

Bisklimpkit
09-04-2009, 07:46 AM
I bought HND yesterday, and since it seems like everything I buy goes south I figured maybe getting the HND would help out those with HNU. You can thank me later! :rofl:

Dinan
09-04-2009, 07:47 AM
unlucky, but don't worry, this is just short covering, i'm setting a stop and see how far this can take me...:cry:

Nova316
09-04-2009, 07:49 AM
SR, Do u think the DOW at 9221 or close to 9221 is the new bottom, or are u still expecting a major correction around sept 15th for the last of the EW waves?

Rat Fink
09-04-2009, 07:59 AM
.

Dinan
09-04-2009, 08:07 AM
come on NG give me some of my money back today,:nut: :rofl:

Vanish3d
09-04-2009, 08:33 AM
you will get your wish dinan, HNU will hit 1.81 then monday its back south.

i got out yesterday at 1.78, so as long as it doesnt go TOO much higher than that, i'd feel good about my decision.

cosmok
09-04-2009, 08:33 AM
There's your pop Dinan

Dinan
09-04-2009, 08:33 AM
anyone having problems with the bmo website... investors line ??

Vanish3d
09-04-2009, 08:34 AM
hahaha 1.8 as i typed it!

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 08:36 AM
front month hnu has sold off way too much, the volatility to also swing back the other way as well, while I Still hold hnu, but with very little money so im not too concern, if it does swing high I will exit and wait for nov contract to roll over mid sept, then I will start to pick up hnd for another sell off

as for gold/silver I am going to add a short position and will begin to add more if it goes any higher.

going to believe we have one more false crack at 1000

also im stilling holding my last hod position in anticipation of further weakness

Super_Geo
09-04-2009, 08:36 AM
Took a small 1000 share position in HGD earlier on this morning at 4.95 with a tight stop at 4.88... I'm willing to take a $100 gamble that gold takes a dive :)

Dinan
09-04-2009, 08:49 AM
SR, in your opinion where u think NG will stop?

debating if i should sell half and let the rest ride till tuesday or sell everything..

troyl
09-04-2009, 08:51 AM
Originally posted by troyl
Picked up a few VST today, broke through the 50 day MA. I like the other technicals on it aswell.

Out today at 0.81 :thumbsup:

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 08:53 AM
^ right now front month NG is unpredictable because it is moving away from the rest of the contract in a pretty strong sell off mode, we dont know if the bottom is in and its a 50/50 both ways.

to sell NG I would wait until nov contract to be in play and we are above 3+ dollar NG

otherwise it could be a bull and bear trap playing NG at current level.

I do want to see a good mini rally swinging back up 20-30 cents so I can unload my own

Dinan
09-04-2009, 08:55 AM
Natural gas' decline extended further to as low as 2.467 today so far, meeting mentioned long term projection target of 2.50. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 2.755 minor resistance holds and further decline could still be seen to next key psychological level of 2.0. ON the upside, above 2.755 will turn intraday outlook neutral an bring consolidation. But a break of 3.155 support turned resistance is needed to indicate that a short term bottom is formed. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish.


lets hope it gets near 2.75 ....

Dinan
09-04-2009, 08:56 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
^ right now front month NG is unpredictable because it is moving away from the rest of the contract in a pretty strong sell off mode, we dont know if the bottom is in and its a 50/50 both ways.

to sell NG I would wait until nov contract to be in play and we are above 3+ dollar NG

otherwise it could be a bull and bear trap playing NG at current level.

I do want to see a good mini rally swinging back up 20-30 cents so I can unload my own

well it was moving away the other days too, it was way over sold.. compared to the nov contact...

cidley69
09-04-2009, 09:03 AM
Anyone else holding HOD? it climbed nicely from last week, but wonder where the higher end support is.

anyone want to give their analysis?

Dinan
09-04-2009, 09:42 AM
another 10 cents, come on NG,

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 09:43 AM
wel cyclist is calling market top out on the 15th, so we have one week left, this could be the one week bullish momentum on the market,

I know he is also calling for 74 on the dollar index by the 17th then reverse.
the index was unable to break above the last fan trend line near 78.70,

we will get a better direction soon if it is going to break up or down.

but if it is down I expect a sudden drop and all market flushing upward but this will be and should be the run before running out of gas.

while I expect gold to top out, I will want to see a top establish between 991-1030 or even possibly making a higher high.

Dinan
09-04-2009, 09:51 AM
you think this is short covering with NG?



oh boy, not sure what to do, sell all or half.... i waited this long, i would hate to see this go and i miss it :banghead:

damn you NG!!!! damn you!! :banghead: emotions are kicking in, not good!!

Vanish3d
09-04-2009, 09:54 AM
in HND at 24

this better not be the turning point for HNU or i'll be PISSSEEDD

broken_legs
09-04-2009, 10:16 AM
I started buying HOD today. I have a tight stop.

Rat Fink
09-04-2009, 10:17 AM
.

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 11:06 AM
wow, the dollar index refuse to break down below the same trend line thats been holding the dollar up for nearly a month.

The good thing about this is, a break below this trend line and stay there would be very bearish to the dollar in the short-medium term, but at the same time as long as price holds. it would be a good place to keep buying on the dips until the trend breaks

max_boost
09-04-2009, 11:11 AM
Originally posted by Vanish3d
in HND at 24

this better not be the turning point for HNU or i'll be PISSSEEDD

hahaha just might. :devil:

Good luck :D

bigbadboss101
09-04-2009, 11:12 AM
The day I sold HNU it rises!

Dinan
09-04-2009, 11:43 AM
NG is driving me CRAZY, i can't wait for the long weekend!!!!!!!

e36bmw///
09-04-2009, 11:47 AM
nm

guessboi
09-04-2009, 11:50 AM
i bet HND will rise due to the rollover next week.

e36bmw///
09-04-2009, 11:52 AM
nm

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:02 PM
Originally posted by guessboi
i bet HND will rise due to the rollover next week.

HND doesnt fully get rolled over to nov's contract until the 14th

but the roll over will begin on the 5th business day of the month. in very slow 15% increments I think

it is best to wait out at least until the 10th so that most of the price is november before going hnd.

why? because NG current month already touched 2.40s, and now at 2.60s, you can say its in the middle of no where and it can go both ways.

but once it is fully rolled over, having NG back at 3.50s is extremely high and will again sell off as usual

you will see they are going to reverse split hnu probablly back to 15-20 dollars, then it will sell off back to single digits is my thoughts.

Dinan
09-04-2009, 12:05 PM
Originally posted by SilverRex


HND doesnt fully get rolled over to nov's contract until the 14th

but the roll over will begin on the 5th business day of the month. in very slow 15% increments I think

it is best to wait out at least until the 10th so that most of the price is november before going hnd.

why? because NG current month already touched 2.40s, and now at 2.60s, you can say its in the middle of no where and it can go both ways.

but once it is fully rolled over, having NG back at 3.50s is extremely high and will again sell off as usual

you will see they are going to reverse split hnu probablly back to 15-20 dollars, then it will sell off back to single digits is my thoughts.


i thought it was the 7th,8th and 9th day... they doing a 5:1 so don't think it will be 15% unless NG rallies big....


and a 1:2 for HND....

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:20 PM
I^ I was just using 15-20 as an example

I have checked on betra pro's website. NG rolls over differently than OIL

they spread out NG more instead of the typical 3-4 days 25% each day.

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:20 PM
Originally posted by SilverRex
NG is different than HOU when it comes to how the betra pro rolls over

Days 1-4
100% NG1, 0% NG2
Day 5
87.5% NG1, 12.5% NG2
Day 6
75.0% NG1, 25.0% NG2
Day 7
62.5% NG1, 37.5% NG2
Day 8
50.0% NG1, 50.0% NG2
Day 9
37.5% NG1, 62.5% NG2
Day 10
25.0% NG1, 75.0% NG2
Day 11
12.5% NG1, 87.5% NG2
Day 12
0% NG1, 100% NG2
Day 13 through 1st Nearby Contract Expiration
0% NG1, 100% NG2
Day 1 of new 1st Nearby Contract through to the end of the Month
100% NG1, 0% NG2
2

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:23 PM
also check out the DOW, is there smiliarities from the last time it sold off? notice how previously it broke thru a former top which then acted as resistance.

we could very well see the same thing as DOW so far is unable to break pass above its previous support now turned into resistance (in red)

but key is below 9221 just to happen the dollar is right at its critical trend line, so is euro. the only thing that broke out was gold.

so we will see within the next few days if we are going to get a break down in the US dollar, or if this would be it. the top is in for the market

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow090409.jpg

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:28 PM
NG just popped

we have extreme selling volume on hnd

hnd has gone up 300% in this latest run that is why I dont recommend buying hnd until the roll over, the mass sell off would swing both ways and is a complete bull/bear trap

Dinan
09-04-2009, 12:31 PM
are you selling HNU??

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:33 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
are you selling HNU??

i sold half this morning, and will sell the other half if it can swing another 20 cents more higher. it has momentum right now

Dinan
09-04-2009, 12:34 PM
howmuch more can it go, damn it's up like 16%

cosmok
09-04-2009, 12:34 PM
^Gold doesn't seem to want to break down, you thinking there will be some more upside until next week?

Vanish3d
09-04-2009, 12:38 PM
damn it!!!!
jumped ship on HNU yesterday and got into HND

went from selling on a loss to buying and losing even more! wtf!!!

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:40 PM
NG oct (current month ) is 2.72

look at November it is 3.72 (+ 1 dollar)

December is a little better 4.50s (80 cents)

Jan is even better 5.00 (50 cents)



as long as we have these huge contango, shorting NG is the play for the next few months. of course dont just jump in, wait for a pull back again hnu has already gone up 300% since beginning of August. it is due for a drop

but I will be looking to buy now if it dips any lower to 14-18 dollars or if roll overs comes in which ever is first

Dinan
09-04-2009, 12:47 PM
you still think NG has legs to ruun, i sold most of my shares at 1.81, 1.89 ... still got half... not sure to keep over weekend or not...:dunno:

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:49 PM
the roll over for november is still over a week away

and we are in september now and with the extreme over sold condition I expect if there is a mini rally, it should have legs at least to try (attampt) to retest 3.00

I will sell my other half near 2.30 hnu

and will wait patiently for entry point on hnd

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:54 PM
if we can close above 2.75 for the day then it will should open up 3.00-3.20

Dinan
09-04-2009, 12:55 PM
Natural gas' decline extended further to as low as 2.467 today so far, meeting mentioned long term projection target of 2.50. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 2.755 minor resistance holds and further decline could still be seen to next key psychological level of 2.0. ON the upside, above 2.755 will turn intraday outlook neutral an bring consolidation. But a break of 3.155 support turned resistance is needed to indicate that a short term bottom is formed. Otherwise, outlook remains bearish.


what you think about that,,, 2.755 a resistance... ??

Dinan
09-04-2009, 12:55 PM
Originally posted by SilverRex
if we can close above 2.75 for the day then it will should open up 3.00-3.20

doesn't it close at 2.30??

what time is the close ?

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 12:59 PM
im looking at the daily chart for natgas on stock chart

Dinan
09-04-2009, 01:04 PM
Originally posted by SilverRex
im looking at the daily chart for natgas on stock chart

true ture, i'm not all here today, been just watching HNU all fucken day..,.. not sure if i want to gamble and hold over the weeeekend or not...

Z_Fan
09-04-2009, 01:05 PM
LOL

I bought HND yesterday. Set a stop loss at 20%.

It got triggered today.

Way to piss away the money. Good job. :nut:

Dinan
09-04-2009, 01:06 PM
looking at this chart, we can see that RSI is moving up and stoch has crossed over to the up side, and the macd i covering a bit too.. but it's still to early, it;'s hardly likely this is the bottom, storage is still full inventories keep on building, i think this is short covering


lots of volume on the oct contraact too

Dinan
09-04-2009, 01:13 PM
forgot the link lol

http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=NG%20V9&o=&a=D&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=CANDLE&st=BOLL%2820%2C2%29%3BMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%29%3BMA%2810%2C20%2C50%29%3BRSI%2814%29%3BSTO%2814%2C3%29%3B

Dinan
09-04-2009, 01:17 PM
Originally posted by Z_Fan
LOL

I bought HND yesterday. Set a stop loss at 20%.

It got triggered today.

Way to piss away the money. Good job. :nut:

sorry to hear that guy, if it makes u feel better i lost a hell a lot more money, :( i know it won't cause no one wants to see anyone lose money, at least i don't,,, sucks what you going to do, and i lost some on my TSFA TOO
:banghead:

i lost like 80% of my gains since i started trading in the last 6-7 months... :(

cosmok
09-04-2009, 01:31 PM
I hate long weekends :rofl:, to sell all bull stocks or not is the question

Dinan
09-04-2009, 01:32 PM
Originally posted by cosmok
I hate long weekends :rofl:, to sell all bull stocks or not is the question

hahaha, what you have??

cosmok
09-04-2009, 01:33 PM
3500 HGU and some smaller positions in HOU and HND

Dinan
09-04-2009, 01:39 PM
are you up?? i would hold HGU, gold seems bullish..

well i'm officially out of HNU... :banghead:

i dunno... ahhhhhh

max_boost
09-04-2009, 01:53 PM
I bought 4000 shares of GAS this morning at $4.20 and sold at $4.50

EASY MONEY.

:rofl:

I don't have the balls to play HNU, GAS will do. This is my first play in weeks hahaha

:D

Have a nice long weekend everyone. :devil:

Bisklimpkit
09-04-2009, 01:54 PM
Originally posted by Dinan
are you up?? i would hold HGU, gold seems bullish..

well i'm officially out of HNU... :banghead:

i dunno... ahhhhhh

Congrats on getting out. I still haven't brought myself to be able to take the loss, and I'm sure that's going to hurt me even more. I have 1450 shares right now at an average of 3.54.

Dinan
09-04-2009, 01:58 PM
Originally posted by Bisklimpkit


Congrats on getting out. I still haven't brought myself to be able to take the loss, and I'm sure that's going to hurt me even more. I have 1450 shares right now at an average of 3.54.

dude, thats peanuts to what i lost !

Dinan
09-04-2009, 02:01 PM
Originally posted by max_boost
I bought 4000 shares of GAS this morning at $4.20 and sold at $4.50

EASY MONEY.

:rofl:

I don't have the balls to play HNU, GAS will do. This is my first play in weeks hahaha

:D

Have a nice long weekend everyone. :devil:

hahaha, nice, what made you buy GAS?? no more XIU:devil:

tylere
09-04-2009, 02:04 PM
Originally posted by Dinan


sorry to hear that guy, if it makes u feel better i lost a hell a lot more money, :( i know it won't cause no one wants to see anyone lose money, at least i don't,,, sucks what you going to do, and i lost some on my TSFA TOO
:banghead:

i lost like 80% of my gains since i started trading in the last 6-7 months... :(

Im out as well. Just updating my spreadsheet and my loses from HNU are around 80% of my gains from the begining of the year as well..... I need beer right about now

max_boost
09-04-2009, 02:07 PM
Originally posted by Dinan


hahaha, nice, what made you buy GAS?? no more XIU:devil:

I was hoping for a bounce on nat gas and it did and I guess GAS went up quite a bit along with it.

I still have 6000 XIU but no rush with that one. If the markets go crazy, I'll cash out. If it doesn't, I'll collect the 3% dividend :D

max_boost
09-04-2009, 02:10 PM
Originally posted by tylere


Im out as well. Just updating my spreadsheet and my loses from HNU are around 80% of my gains from the begining of the year as well..... I need beer right about now

Ahhh well, lesson learned. It's tough playing these 2X etf's man. When it's going good, it's GOOD. Imagine if you bought HND instead? You would have doubled your money easily in the past month.

tylere
09-04-2009, 02:14 PM
Originally posted by max_boost


Ahhh well, lesson learned. It's tough playing these 2X etf's man. When it's going good, it's GOOD. Imagine if you bought HND instead? You would have doubled your money easily in the past month.

Yup.... Emotions got in the way and I keep moving my stop loss... Lesson learned, set the stop loss and forget it.....

SilverRex
09-04-2009, 02:19 PM
good close for NG ung alike

hopefully this is the bounce i was expecting.

expecting more upside next week towards 3, then my eyes will be on hnd between 14-16 dollars

max_boost
09-04-2009, 02:25 PM
Originally posted by tylere


Yup.... Emotions got in the way and I keep moving my stop loss... Lesson learned, set the stop loss and forget it.....

Yep.

I bought HNU at $6.00, when nat gas was at $4.00.

1 month later.

HNU at $5.50, nat gas was at $4.20

Didn't average down, didn't sell, emotions got in the way and I ended up selling HNU at $4.50 for a $1.50 loss.

Looks like the right choice given it's at $1.97 right now.

So I switched to GAS. NO leverage so I can sleep at night. I'm just happy I made my first trade in a few weeks. Been just sitting around and watching, scared. hahaha

Dinan
09-04-2009, 02:27 PM
Originally posted by SilverRex
good close for NG ung alike

hopefully this is the bounce i was expecting.

expecting more upside next week towards 3, then my eyes will be on hnd between 14-16 dollars

hahahaha, thats just great... :banghead: lol


it's at 2.755, ahahaha, what are the odds,:rofl:

Dinan
09-04-2009, 02:31 PM
Originally posted by tylere


Yup.... Emotions got in the way and I keep moving my stop loss... Lesson learned, set the stop loss and forget it.....

tell me about it, same here, i guess i needed to see most of my profits vanish to realize this isn't working out!:banghead:


i'm so pissed, now i'm back to almost even!

and i haven't been trading either, since the down fall of NG, so it's not like i made anything either....

Dinan
09-04-2009, 02:34 PM
Originally posted by max_boost


I was hoping for a bounce on nat gas and it did and I guess GAS went up quite a bit along with it.

I still have 6000 XIU but no rush with that one. If the markets go crazy, I'll cash out. If it doesn't, I'll collect the 3% dividend :D

nice, where u planning on leaving it if it didn't.....

Dinan
09-04-2009, 02:41 PM
could this have something to do with the rise??

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Pickens%20Says%20Natural-...Superior%27%20to%20Diesel&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vbBFYSmmocaQ.asf


still long time from now tho...

djayz
09-08-2009, 02:42 AM
gold finally above 1000 can't wait to see whats in store for HGU when markets open :hitit:

DRKM
09-08-2009, 04:34 AM
Hmmm... I am kinda weary of this up trend in gold. The macd in the hourly has been diverging from the price since the 3rdish. Only with this lastest pop did the MACD swing back up.

Vanish3d
09-08-2009, 06:11 AM
damn NG was down alllll weekend, and now that market is gonna be open its back to where it left off friday. I hope it drops a bit so i can get out of HND

Dinan
09-08-2009, 06:29 AM
Wow, everyone is getting out of hnd?

Nothing seems to want to go down anymore, oil is up, gold over 1k, markets still in the green, and even NG is starting to move up, maybe I should re buy :s

DRKM
09-08-2009, 06:32 AM
I would not pursue NG until roll over. It is bound to drop a little even if this persistance keeps up.

NG rolls on the 14th>?

SilverRex
09-08-2009, 06:44 AM
so no more holidays. back to business.

the US dollar broke an important up trend line, and with the falling of the US dollar, it has pushed everything up on gold, oil and euro.

looking at oil, it has tested right up against a falling trendline as well as previous resistance which is holding just below 70 oil.

technically this 70 oil will be a barrier. dollar index is pretty much right at 77. a break below that would push everything even higher.

but until it does 70 oil will be resistance. either it will turn around here or breaking this will test next resistance area, although oil is laden with so many various resistance at 71, 71.50 and even 72.

I would suggest you can swing trade shorting oil near 70 with stop over 70. if 70 gives away. time to sit back and wait for oil to see how high it will go before jumping in.

I view the market has about a week left of momentum before things fall off the cliff

so far NG is doing go, breaking above a critical resistance at 2.75. I Expect it will muster more strength towards 3.00 this is the bounce I was expecting last week and I hope it will continue. once the rally ends or tops out and november contract which is quite high rolls in, then it will be time to short it again for a good return. but until then stay way from buying and shorting until next month rolls over. the current month is even more volatile then you might imagine, after selling off quite heavily, it is making a big short covering.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil090809.jpg

now the dollar index has broken its own uptrendline thus, falling straight thru 77.44 support. the mental 77 support is holding it up for the moment. as cyclist forecasted also, he expects if 77 breaks it will shoot for 74 and his timing has the dollar bottom at 74 by the 17th of september. So far according to his plan, things seems to be lining up as well. I wasnt a big fan of his cycle counts and more of a EW analysis these days. but with what is happening, I just have to give the thumbs up to his guy and cant help but do what I can do tie both EW and his cycle turn dates together. So if he is giving the market one more business week to go up, then lets take that as a good reference point.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar090809.jpg

last week as gold broke upwards, thru 971, it was clear the trinagle break out pattern has given gold new life and its only a matter of time until it test a breaks above 1033 to make new highs. but that doesnt mean gold is going to the moon either. gold has temporary find a top near its previous resistance at 1006, next test is 1033 (nothing stopping it in between). based on projection and breakout strength, gold can easily hit anywhere from 1033-1189. So for swing trades, either buy the dips until gold finds a top. but dont get overly excited just yet.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold090809.jpg

now i am also throwing this dow monthly chart up. notice how dow made hints of a smilar pattern where it broke higher but only to fall lower. I veiw gold is making a smilar move where once it makes a new high and tops out, it will fall hard possibly lower than 681 shortly afterwards. The only difference is, gold only made a major wave I and has plenty of upside to go in the years to come but DOW has made a grand cycle top which suggest it could be in for quite a dreaded side way grind imo similar to the japanese market when it topped out and never made new highs since.

but for what its worth, given the similarities, you can still swing trade gold similar to DOW's breakot and retest circled in black. so you can short gold near 1033, then buy gold when it breaks above and restest the same 1033, and if and when gold does break above 1033 and finally falls back below this point, you know gold is in for a good drop.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dowgold.jpg

SilverRex
09-08-2009, 06:57 AM
Originally posted by DRKM
I would not pursue NG until roll over. It is bound to drop a little even if this persistance keeps up.

NG rolls on the 14th>?

yes ther is when november's current 3.90s+ NG price rolls over 100%

but NG begins rolling overing under HNU/HND starting today at very small increments.

today, hnu/hnd will buy 87.5% current month and 12.5% november

Dinan
09-08-2009, 07:15 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex


yes ther is when november's current 3.90s+ NG price rolls over 100%

but NG begins rolling overing under HNU/HND starting today at very small increments.

today, hnu/hnd will buy 87.5% current month and 12.5% november

today is good for HNU holders...

i think roll over will favor HNU, cause november contract has been strong all this time....if it stays like that and oct doesn't drag it down then it should favor HNU


and the split is on the 15...so maybe buy on the 16??

Dinan
09-08-2009, 07:19 AM
wow, NG is crazy today..... it's under 2.70 now, and it was at .88 a bit ago...


SR, you think it would go and test the highs again? maybe buy some HNU,,, ahhh i never learn hahahahaha,

SilverRex
09-08-2009, 07:21 AM
like I said, its both a bull and bear trap.

its better to stay away NG until november (most of them) rolls over

Dinan
09-08-2009, 07:28 AM
so wait yesterday and today is all in one day? the chart for NG doesn't show yesterdays close....

Dinan
09-08-2009, 07:30 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
like I said, its both a bull and bear trap.

its better to stay away NG until november (most of them) rolls over


true true,,,, so u waiting after the split to get into HND or before.....?

is it true that it takes time for the shares to get converted and updated? and you will get charged service fee from your broker?

cosmok
09-08-2009, 07:34 AM
Wow the gap on HND is crazy right now

Dinan
09-08-2009, 07:35 AM
damn, should have held half of my HNU shares, could have made another 6% on my money :(

wow, HNU is crazy, seems to be tracking nov contract more then oct.....

Dinan
09-08-2009, 07:39 AM
did HND get halted or something, it's hasn't moved ... at least in my ticker...

KRZY403
09-08-2009, 07:40 AM
Originally posted by Dinan
did HND get halted or something, it's hasn't moved ... at least in my ticker...

mine is the same :confused:

Vanish3d
09-08-2009, 07:40 AM
why is HNU up 7% while HND down 0.36%?? evne if they are tracking percentages of new contract should they not still be up/down the same amount?
or is RBC messed up and giving me wrong price ?

I see HND at 22.10 and HNU at 2.12

cosmok
09-08-2009, 07:40 AM
Same as mine, stuck at 22.1

bg_27
09-08-2009, 07:44 AM
yah its stuck on mine too (TD Active trader)

Dinan
09-08-2009, 07:45 AM
yeah 22.10.... hmmmm i'm with BMO