Official Short-term Investments Thread

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

sold at 22 hnd, looking to buy back, not because I got lucky, but my target as I said yesterday was 21-22 :)

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
sold at 22 hnd, looking to buy back, not because I got lucky, but my target as I said yesterday was 21-22 :)

missed that...otherwise i would have waited for 21 :)


when you looking to get back in?

[Red@8]

Getting real tempted to get into HND here in the low $19's.

[skandalouz_08]

me too...hoping it will hit $19 and I'll get in

[Dinan]

i'm looking for yesterdays low..... cause there is still a chance that oct can get to 3.20-3.30 and nov to 4.16

like SR said, it should make a higher high this time, and it shouldn't get over 3.28 and 4.16 oct and nov contract.... if we want to see lower NG....

[SilverRex]

^

true but the other scenario would call it the nov contract will sell right off to 3.22-3.45 just as it rolls over.

we now trade I believe 50% oct and 50% nov

picked some up at 19.50, saving ammo if oct does reach 3.22 that is probablly around 16-17 bucks

also as we trade more of nov which is 1 dollar more than oct, the drop of the same 10-20 cent wfor nov will not be as big of a deal as 20 cent drop on oct.

for example if we are trading 100% nov. and NG using current price to shoot up from 3 to 3.20, about 7%, Nov say at 4.00, goes from 4.00 to 4.20 is only 5%

[Dinan]

^

Beginning 2:30pm ET on September 9, 2009:
October, 2009 (75%)
November, 2009 (25%)

from the horizon website...

[SilverRex]

let see if oil can break todays low at 70.90, if it can I think next move is towards 69-69.50, anything lower would make me happy as it would force a bearish outlook resumption

I wont mind the dollar index to shoot higher to test 77.82 resistance. so I can get all my oil, NG in the green. unload then wait for it to drop again for a buy back

[civic_rida]

Im holding hod really want to sell before the weekend.

[Dinan]

HND is temping.... but there is still time, only 12pm est .... patients :nut: :D


under 19$.... even more tempted.... buy at 18.70, come on....

[skandalouz_08]

HND just dropped below 19, sooo tempted...

[SilverRex]

if DOW can break below 9550 that would be good

[Dinan]

anyone pull the trigger on HND....

nov contract took out yesterdays high but oct hasn't reached yesterdays high yet....

[Red@8]

I'm in HND in the low $19's.

[SilverRex]

here we go oil near 71, come on break new low baby

[Dinan]

come back down HND... ahhh, i'm getting to greedy lol

[SilverRex]

hnd its either 19 is the low (came back to retest for adouble bottom) or its 16.50 in my books

[SilverRex]

oh broke todays low 70.86

hopefully that is things to come.

expecting euro to crash to about 1.4470s that would be sweeti, bring her down

dow at 9561.

[Dinan]

in at 18.77, not patient enough..... damn NG is on the move!!!!

oct contract
http://futuresource.quote.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=NG%20V9&o=&a=D&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=CANDLE&st=BOLL%2820%2C2%29%3BMACD%2812%2C26%2C9%29%3BMA%2810%2C20%2C50%29%3BRSI%2814%29%3BSTO%2814%2C3%29%3B

[Vanish3d]

:guns: :thumbsdow

[SilverRex]

dam breaking a new low for oil didnt help, it needed lower. gold at a critical pt 997 testing, any more upside to this then trend continues

[SilverRex]

I guess NG's up move is coming early, going to look for hnd at around 16.50-17 for my next play here

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I guess NG's up move is coming early, going to look for hnd at around 16.50-17 for my next play here

ahhh, if i only waiting another few min, could have gotten in a lot cheaper... ahhhh....


so 3.28 and 4.16 should hold?

[SilverRex]

gold is ready to tackle 1000 again, lets get this over with, shoot up way up onto 1033

[Super_Geo]

what is this up move in NG based on???

I absolutely don't get it... 69bcf into storage, maybe another 400-500 bcf of storage remaining, and localization of availabe storage is going to be an issue in the coming weeks.

I took a small position in HND, [email protected].

[SilverRex]

^

all technical my friend, it needs to consolidate into a sub wave 4 then make a final wave 5 bottom. been expecting this up move for over 2 weeks

[Dinan]

i wish i would have kept HNU few more days, always happens to me... after i sell it shot up lol....




Originally posted by Super_Geo
what is this up move in NG based on???

I absolutely don't get it... 69bcf into storage, maybe another 400-500 bcc if storage remaining, and localization of availabe storage is goon to be an issue in the commg weeks.

I took a small position in HND, [email protected].

wow and you held on this long!!!:thumbsup:

[Vanish3d]

you think we'll see 24+ HND in the near future? I need to break even

if i held my HNU i woulda broke even today....

[Red@8]

Hey SR you dump your $19.XX HND or you gonna avg down in the $16-17.

Dinan you're in to right?

I think I am going to get rid of them here with the loss and take a look at them again when they are lower.

[Dinan]

yeah im in HND just before NG took off.... my whole profit from yesterday gone just like that....

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last week's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.

However, closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.137 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the late summer decline, weekly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target.

Natural gas pivot point for Thursday is 2.88

First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 3.00
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.14

First support is last Friday's low crossing at 2.41
Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.96



the markets are setting new highs of the year.....

[Bisklimpkit]

Bought a position in HND @ 18.34. Hopefully next week will bring the gains I'm looking for.

[997TT]

HND is 16.95 now.

FK ME

[Dinan]

^ did you buy back?? hope not in the 20's

thinking about buying few more shares....:dunno:

[Super_Geo]

Once again... don't fuckin question SR's predictions :rofl: :banghead:

[Dinan]

oct 3.15 and nov 4.163 ..... :eek:

[997TT]

16.63 ... FU NG

[RX_EVOLV]

just took a small position in HND @ 16.65. Gamble gamble

[Vanish3d]

seriously.... wtf.....
I'm down $9/share on HND now... this morning I almost put a stop at 20...but didnt cuz i didnt want it to touch 20 then shoot up.

[Dinan]

:eek:


SR was right, wait AFTER the roll over and plit....:banghead:

[RX_EVOLV]

lol already @ 15.9 by the time i submitted the last post. What I am doing :rofl:

[Red@8]

HND in the $15's now!

:banghead:

[997TT]

saw 15.87 was ready to put my fist thru my monitor....thanks for advising me not to use stops on HND Dinan. Lol...j/k

back to 16.37.... pos stock.

[Dinan]

^^ well a mental stop... shit :(
i just hope this is ONLY a short covering....

No change in Natural gas' outlook. While some more recovery might still be seen, upside is expected to be limited below 50% retracement of 4.16 to 2.409 at 3.28 and bring fall resumption. Below 2.63 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 2.409. Break there will target to 2.0 psychological level next.

[max_boost]

Oh shit!

Nat gas strikes again!

[cosmok]

Almost -25% on the day

Edit: Who's buying here? :rofl:

[max_boost]

And once again, majority of you are on the wrong end of it. :(

My brothers, this 2X shit is one dangerous game!

As for me, I put a market order in for XIU this morning and got in at $16.60, sold it at $16.80. Only $0.20 but at 6000 shares = $1200, I can take the day off. :D

[djayz]

damn hnd is insane glad i'm not in on that ride, I can barely handle HOD right now. Up and down 4 times in the same trading range in tthe last 2 days. Between 10.80-11.50. Missed the boat twice at grabbing it down low and miss selling my 11.08 position in the high elevens 3 times :(

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by max_boost
And once again, majority of you are on the wrong end of it. :(

My brothers, this 2X shit is one dangerous game!

As for me, I put a market order in for XIU this morning and got in at $16.60, sold it at $16.80. Only $0.20 but at 6000 shares = $1200, I can take the day off. :D


ya i hear ya, but mainly NG is the dangerous shit

oil/gold/silver is a +/- 10%.... we can stomach a 10% loss... NG is nuts...

[Z_Fan]

Lost $570 in 1 hour and 20 minutes today on HND.

[guessboi]

fuck HNU and HND, always on the wrong side of things. :banghead:

[Dinan]

:facepalm:

[civic_rida]

I was able to sell half my hnu @2.62 for a smaller loss.
I also bought hnd @ 15.19

[max_boost]

The day high for HND was $22.10, that's a 32% spread to the low of $15.00. HOLY FACK!

[civic_rida]

Wow this feels like hou at beginning of the year.

[Vanish3d]

32% AND counting my friend haha

I'm predicting HND will close at 14.57

[Dinan]

this is what i was scared off :banghead:

[sputnik]

Originally posted by Dinan
what are the odds of it going up?

quoted again.

:rofl:

[Dinan]

yupp... we fucked

[Bisklimpkit]

Just wait until mid to end of next week, all of my HND holding friends. If you can hang on that long, I think you'll be feeling fine once again. Currently holding 3 positions of HND with an average of 20.83.

[cdnsir]

3 straight weeks of losses, then you go ahead and break me back to even in 4 days! GAS, I love you. :love:

[civic_rida]

Dinan did you sell hnu?

[Super_Geo]

:rofl:

I don't understand how this is even close to possible.

Last time Oct NG was at 3.30 the amount put into storage was way less (40-50BCF), and available storage was way more.

Now... we're at a point where we're traditionally starting to draw from storage as demand picks up. Instead, we're putting even more into storage, not only that, but we have less storage capacity than ever. The fundamentals are completely fucked.

Ever since I got burned on HOD I've set tight stops at $100 from initial purchase, so this time it saved my hide. But still... I don't even know where to re-enter... I'm thinking around 3.25 NG, but who knows what the fuck it's trying to do!


There are market movers who set the bear and bull traps to strip a lot of money from casual investors. I'd say this is one of those days...

[Dinan]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Dinan did you sell hnu?

:banghead: yup :banghead:


looks like the trend has changed and i had to go ahead and pull this move from hnu to HND :(


are there any hurricanes or anything??

[bigbadboss101]

Damn the day I sold HNU and got HND was the day the tide changed.

[civic_rida]

To think last week hnd was at 27 dollars

[guessboi]

fuck I am holding this time. I lost my patient in HGU and HNU the last time. got fucked both times. HGU shoots up and HNU now shoots up. FML.

[Dinan]

could use SR about now....

[Dinan]

maybe we should do a group buy for VECTOR VEST :rofl: :facepalm:

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by guessboi
fuck I am holding this time. I lost my patient in HGU and HNU the last time. got fucked both times. HGU shoots up and HNU now shoots up. FML.

I'm in the same boat. I think HND will come back, especially after such a large drop, so I'm gonna hold until I'm within the $100 loss range or less. Down 22% in an hour hurts considering I didn't expect it to drop when I got at 19.00

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Dinan





are there any hurricanes or anything??

ya its called beyond-group-buy located in calgary.

[bilal.h1]

i hate canadian stocks or ETFS

i bought in at 16.20, to minutes lates i am down 600$ so sweet.
:guns: :closed:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by sputnik


quoted again.

:rofl:

Quoted for potential awesomeness!

Fack. I actually agree with sputnik for once. :rofl:

[Dinan]

agree with what? that there are builds and increasing week by week ??? or that the storage is over 90% full ??:dunno:

i never thought it would rally this much, i just hope this is just short covering....

the good news is it didn't close over 3.28 but the bad news is it did get over that at one point...

i like how he comes on when we make a bad trades...

[Bisklimpkit]

Originally posted by Dinan
i like how he comes on when we make a bad trades...

I guess that's why he's got 'Beyond bully' under his name. I'm glad he does, because it gives me something else to direct my anger at :poosie:

[max_boost]

^

It's not really that. It's the high degree of volatility in these ETF's. Basically trading something that is beyond your control.

I mean, everyone was on HNU and HND took off. You guys all switched to HND and guess what? HNU took off. It's 50/50 black or red but yet you guys lose more than 50% of the time!

Don't get me wrong, I want you guys to make money man but it just sucks watching you guys get killed collectively day in and day out.

[sputnik]

This isn't a matter of coming on after a bad trade.

This was a matter of calling out bad advice that was posed in the form of a question and predicting that the "whats the worst that could happen" mentality was bound to make for an interesting day.

[Red@8]

Originally posted by max_boost
^

It's not really that. It's the high degree of volatility in these ETF's. Basically trading something that is beyond your control.

I mean, everyone was on HNU and HND took off. You guys all switched to HND and guess what? HNU took off. It's 50/50 black or red but yet you guys lose more than 50% of the time!

Don't get me wrong, I want you guys to make money man but it just sucks watching you guys get killed collectively day in and day out.

Isn't trading anything in the stock market beyond your control to some extent or another? These ETF's just happen to magnify the volatility or risk/reward but I would think that everyone here who is trading them knows that going in.

I cant speak for anyone else on the board but are there that many users getting killed day after day? As in ultimately loosing more than they are making? I certainly don't fall in that category, but if everyone is getting destroyed more times than not (as you imply), I would really like to know why they are trading!

[Proyecto2000]

So I have been sitting on the sidelines watching this thread for the past few weeks (been sidelined after my OPC purchases :banghead: ) and I was finally going to make a trade and buy 3500 HNU shares yesterday afternoon. I got called out and was to busy to get on the PC and buy them this morning. Now I read this thread and checked the price and now im pissed at my self again :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

on the plus side, atleast i didnt lose money like you guys.

[Dinan]

it's official, another group buy fail... lets jump back into HNU...

Natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.158 confirming that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's rally, broken support crossing at 3.584 is the next upside target. Closes below today's low crossing at 2.740 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 3.32
Second resistance is broken support crossing at 3.58

First support is today's low crossing at 2.74
Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 2.41

[troyl]

Picked up a few EOX on a "tip" haha we all know how those can work out.

[KRZY403]

fml. i come home and turn on my computer to find that im down 34% today because of hnd:banghead:

[Chandler_Racing]

Beauty day for HNU, finally. :love:

[Dinan]

hahahah, i like how all the HNU holders are coming out :rofl:

lets see what SR says, there might be more HNU holders after tomorrow :eek:

[DRKM]

Predictions for next couple of days:
Gold falls
Oil falls
NG falls

[Dinan]

Time to buy HNU ????

http://i24.photobucket.com/albums/c38/bmw330ci05/ng-1.jpg

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it extends Thursday's breakout above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.137. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.

If October extends this week's rally, broken support crossing at 3.584 is the next upside target. Closes below Thursday's low crossing at 2.740 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Natural gas pivot point for Friday is 3.11

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 3.32
Second resistance is broken support crossing at 3.58

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.14
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.89


HBP NYMEX Natural Gas Bull+ and Bear+ ETFs:
Currently tracking:
October, 2009 (62.5%)
November, 2009 (37.5%)
Beginning 2:30pm ET on September 11, 2009:
October, 2009 (50%)
November, 2009 (50%)

[SilverRex]

ok let look at oil this morning, while silver made new highs, euro new highs, dollar new lows, even NG was a monster. I was expecting this rally on NG but did not expected to it reach beyond 3.22, but anyways it did I'll explain my comments later.

oil is still stuck in a right range and looking like it needs to decide if it wants to break aobe 72.50 and head higher or below 71 once again, but something has to give. and we will see what it will do I think it will move based on the dollar, meaning, the lower the US dollar, the higher oil goes but at a very struggling rate, but if the US dollar pops rallies higher then I think oil is going to drop like a brick. thats how I feel, other wise, oil should have made new highs by now but it didnt. it tells me its weak. very weak.

even if oil pops. I expect 73.50 to hold. again look for that as a shorting opportunity. if you want to play it now, have a tight stop above 72.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil091109.jpg

while gold came down to 983, it did not quite reach the 975 area that I would like to see and price has since made it back above 997 which put gold back on the bullish radar. however while silver made new highs. gold remains under its previous top at 1007. and if the dollar decides to cave in today, gold may go no where. there fore look for a shorting near 1007 or if gold breaks below 997, im expecting gold to make it back into the range trading of 885-997 area for now.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold091109.jpg

now the US dollar has got down below 77 finally, but it isnt selling off as it should so something tells me something is holding it up, with stoch over sold, I have a guy feeling its waiting to pop. the pop may not signal the end to dollar bottom is over unless it can get back above 78 imo. but none the less the chart is very setup for a mad dash upward once it breaks out of the sharp declining wedge, but there could be a scenario where it suddenly falls off and test the 75.9 support. if that is the case, it would make a good buying opportunity as I feel there will be plenty of buying if that happens and push price right back.

cyclist calling a dollar bottom on the 17th. we are close. very close to a bottom. I hope the bottom comes sooner, so we can say good bye to oil/ng

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar091109.jpg

now NG has made a nice pop but given its recent rally I dont think it can sustain it since nov contract is like in the 4.30s. which is technical breakout if the chart ever rolls over and oct expire. there fore I expect a sell off similar when NG first hit 4.06, sold off, then slightly made a bit of a higher high at 4.16.

I cant possibly see NG holding above this level, it will be a great shorting opportunity right at this moment.

all in all what I wanted to say is, I expect nov NG price to fall so when the price does roll over on the chart, it actually will make it look like it rallied but the sell off continues.

now having NG breaking above 3.25 is a bit concern that could opening up to 3.45 area, so depending on how you can stomach the upside risk, my bias is still down in the medium term while short term is bullish but could turn at any moment.

looking at the chart, notice how NG made an ABC correction then drop to 3.31 then next month rolled in about middle of the month to about 3.70s and continue selling off. I Expect similar scenario however the consolidation pharse may look a bit more volatile then the ABC correction, it could be of a triangle meaning, every drop back towards 2.40 will be met with a mini rally to the pt that it breaks another trend line and I think that is when it will attampt to make a final low or double bottom which we wont know until it happens.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/NG091109.jpg

[Dinan]

since NG is just a North american product, the USD doesn't really effect it, thats what i hear....

well even on the current chart, we can see NG has rallied quit a bit...

did you buy in again SR? into HND?

[SilverRex]

^ yup double up my position.

also NG is affected by the dollar because oil is affected by the dollar and NG moves in accordance to oil. while it does not appear so but if you put them side by side, NG on the higher time frame will only moves when oil begins to show life. so if oil tanks, not much hope left for NG but that does not mean oil makes a new low say below 30 dollars NG has to make new lows as well. because tops and bottoms are based on supply and demand to a degree. NG cannot goto zero so it must find a bottom and remain there until oil stabalizes and NG will move on a day where oil just makes a healthy up move or thereafter

[Dinan]

where would you look to take some profit or get out of HND ? or you confident and holding it?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
where would you look to take some profit or get out of HND ? or you confident and holding it?

im going to hold it I believe NG has to come down to at least form an uptrend line, and given the last two big rise, it always came back near the bottom but not quite.

assuming 3.33 is the top and it does come down,

so based on the last to first rise, the initial retracement has been steep. the 81% and 71% seems all tofamilar, remember there is a 78% fibo retracement.

this could be the case here, if we conservatively take 70% as our target and assuming 3.33 is the top, then that will bring it down to 2.68 to setup our trend line support

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/NGtoday-2.jpg

[Dinan]

3.40:eek: :banghead: :facepalm:

[SilverRex]

^ yup just what I was afraid off

[Dinan]

^^ whats that?? the low has been posted and it's moving on up now?


whats plan B?

[SilverRex]

2.41 is A low not the THE low imo

[Dinan]

still going to hold?

what is up is up with this rally ?

it went from 2.41 to 3.42 in 5 days, damn!

[Vanish3d]

oh boy.... here we go

[SilverRex]

nice gold cracked the 1007 area, perhaps we going to see a test of 1033 after all

edit: hmm

euro and gold not moving as it should on breakout, fishy

could I get the big drop I wanted :)

come on dollar spike spike

[Dinan]

it's dropping, but 3.28 should be a support now, anyone getting out?


damn! NG is officially i WILD MONSTER!

[Rat Fink]

.