Official Short-term Investments Thread

[997TT]

Down 6% to open
now back to almost even...
where it goes from here....please down. lol

[tylere]

Look at ECA go!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by tylere
Look at ECA go!

thats because they splitting into two companies, one pure NG and one oil...

[tylere]

Yup! Its been rumor around here for a while. Finally happening

[Dinan]

i can't watch this anymore :drama:

[bilal.h1]

GUYS Dont Panic NAT GAs will go down by 9 am
:)

[Sugarphreak]

.....

[tylere]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


The price jump is all hype; when it splits you get 1 share of each company... but who wants a share of a company that is in NG right now?

I might pick up some shares of the oil side once it goes through, my guess is the O&G will be undervalued to start while the NG side will be way overvalued.

If you buy ECA right now it is like buying a combo meal at McDonalds, sure you get the crap fries & watered down drink... but all you really want is a Hamburger and you could have bought it for less on it's own.

But if you had shares at ~31 dollars today is a great day :clap:

[SilverRex]

euro tanking big

come on fall everything :D

[Dinan]

^ it's moving back up now :(

so is NG

[Sugarphreak]

....

[bilal.h1]

lol guys give it a break, it needs to take as much money out as possible.natural gas is dropping today, and thats just positive thinking lol

i am only down 1000$ so far. :banghead:

[KRZY403]

Originally posted by bilal.h1
lol guys give it a break, it needs to take as much money out as possible.natural gas is dropping today, and thats just positive thinking lol

i am only down 1000$ so far. :banghead:


you think thats bad im down almost $2000

[bilal.h1]

i guess half as bad, but not to worry, it will drop like a rock today:burnout:

[Dinan]

^^ why you say that?? i hope so...


Originally posted by KRZY403



you think thats bad im down almost $2000

same here... i just hope this doesn't turn out like HNU and wait for a rally to get out......:facepalm:

[SilverRex]

thats why you guys should have waited till the foll over is 100% for the more conservative approach.

while I fully expected this rally, I guess the sharp rise is hurting many of you hnd holders. I cant imagine those who bought in the high 20s are doing. if you aint got the stomach, you must use stops.

now I myself got out of hnu too soon, some days I kick myself for not following my own advice lol

anyways. we have about a week left before another turn date approaches. and we'll see if we can hang in there and ride this out.

while I cannot be right everytime and for all of your sake I hope I can get this right. but just from my observation, NG is near a top and I expect it to sell off soon my target is back to about 2.68-2.70 area

[bilal.h1]

i am in at 3.20$ or 16.20 HND.

not that bad if you tell me, if it drops to 2.80 i'll be in heaven
but my target is 3.00 i am not as greedy :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
thats why you guys should have waited till the foll over is 100% for the more conservative approach.

while I fully expected this rally, I guess the sharp rise is hurting many of you hnd holders. I cant imagine those who bought in the high 20s are doing. if you aint got the stomach, you must use stops.

now I myself got out of hnu too soon, some days I kick myself for not following my own advice lol

anyways. we have about a week left before another turn date approaches. and we'll see if we can hang in there and ride this out.

while I cannot be right everytime and for all of your sake I hope I can get this right. but just from my observation, NG is near a top and I expect it to sell off soon my target is back to about 2.68-2.70 area

your still in HND, so for your own sake too...yeah like you said we should have waited till roll over but you didn't wait either :facepalm:

[SilverRex]

^ well the good thing is I dont play with as much fund as you guys. oil play is just small for me. I play in other markets like forex

[guessboi]

i bought 200 shares more at 14.45. HND. hope for the best. one last run. :nut:

[bilal.h1]

SR when does NG roll over 100%

[Dinan]

i think monday after 2:30pm eastern

[bilal.h1]

so probably its good to hold until monday anyway

[bilal.h1]

oil is tanking

[SilverRex]

^

good if oil goes no where, NG isnt going anywhere either once it completes it technical top

[bilal.h1]

good thing i am the type that panics, lol positive thinking will get us there, NG started to sell off, nothing major yet

[troyl]

Originally posted by bilal.h1
SR when does NG roll over 100%

17th

[997TT]

there goes oil and NG

HND $15.95...c'mon i need $17.3 to break even.

else i'll be trading down into a kia

[Dinan]

U getting out at even or waiting for profit

[bilal.h1]

i hit my my break even point, now some profit and i am out ;)

[djayz]

Damn HOD just exploded I had a sell order in for 11.50 and that got wiped out as I went away to do something, now the things sitting at 11.85! Was not expecting that

[Dinan]

Guys still holding HND? I'm going home just now, what's the price?

[Nova316]

I have shares in low 20's HND :(
I averaged down a lot with the 14.20 buy this morning tho

Currently at 15.90

[guessboi]

THERE GOES HND and HOD!!!

[Nova316]

^^ and the TSX WHOOP sitting ~95% cash on US side, cant wait to reposition

[SilverRex]

so far so good boys

[RX_EVOLV]

wow somehow back to even on HND. i'm not sure if I can handle this kind of action.;.. back to gold/ oil for me.

[bilal.h1]

you guys should pay me for my positive thinking, i ended up selling at 16.81 and i am happy with the result. cheers:D

[civic_rida]

Wow.
lucky guy.

[Dinan]

not sure if i should take my loss here or wait...

[SilverRex]

^ im holding NG short until it gets to about 2.70s at the least and depnding on if the chart gets updated to nov contract, I may continue holding it

for oil im expecting oil to reach 65.50 and further down side to 63

if 75 to 67 is wave I, then oil could be set up 72.90 this morning to about 65.5

why 65.5? because if the 1st drop was wave I, then wave III has to be no shorter than wave I.

just like the same analysis I use when NG first dip from 4.57 to 3.22, I said when NG finds a top around 4-4.32, it will drop to about 2.6-2.8 because it has to at least drop as much as wave I if not more. since wave III are the most powerful in strength, it went beyond and actually got as low as 2.41.

then the consolidation wave 4 came and we get to see amazing retracement.

[guessboi]

go HND!

[bilal.h1]

i hate ETFS and especially canadian's so this should be my last ETF trade, as for Oil.
i follow thorougly with your analysis (SR) and i thank you for that.i think i will short oil on monday.

[SilverRex]

funny how oil completely rallied off 69 you know why?

because 68.95 is what looked like a sub wave I top from these recent run up. so if 68.95 is broken to the down side, it will invalidate its current up move and turning into a correction instead which would fulfill the original assumption that 75 is the top and a wave III is in progress

here picture speaks a thousand words

we need oil to break below 68.95 to invalidate current up move completely and begin wave III down to min 65.5 (since this is last support) if it is in fact wave III then it could head lower to next target at 63

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oiltoday-10.jpg

[997TT]

Need another $0.60 to break even.
Fak i got myself into another really bad situation. Had to average down 4x....lol

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
Need another $0.60 to break even.
Fak i got myself into another really bad situation. Had to average down 4x....lol

ahhahaha, me too.... are you getting out even or holding for some $$$$$

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan


ahhahaha, me too.... are you getting out even or holding for some $$$$$

fak i dont know. $17.14 ...my cost is $17.30

holding fkn 6k shares...lol

[Dinan]

my cost is 17.25, only 900 shares,,, might take out half... :( and if it dips buy back ... i dunno, SR says hold :D

YESS finallly NG drops like we were expecting :D


HND has gone up 3$, howmiuch more can it go :love: lol i love that line, hahahah, as from what we saw yesterday, it can GO alright!

[troyl]

Originally posted by 997TT


fak i dont know. $17.14 ...my cost is $17.30

holding fkn 6k shares...lol

6000 shares :eek:

[997TT]

dinan, imagine if we got in around $14 or $15
god damn hate averaging down and chasing my losses.

never again am i not setting stops. from down $13k to up now
$17.44.....weeee

[eljefe]

Originally posted by 997TT


fak i dont know. $17.14 ...my cost is $17.30

holding fkn 6k shares...lol

Well, that would put you up 10k from the low today- go with your gut and try to think back to what you were thinking when you were 10k down this morning.....Was it something like "Fuck if I could just get that 10g's back I would walk the fuck away" or was it "Fuck this piece of shit stock I am am going to ride it til I'm up" ?

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgastoday-1.jpg

remember this a while back? that was when someone ask me what to do with NG, I said if I bet its going down :)

the power of wave III

[Dinan]

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.14
Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.89


maybe 2.90 would be good take take profit.... ?

[997TT]

Originally posted by eljefe


Well, that would put you up 10k from the low today- go with your gut and try to think back to what you were thinking when you were 10k down this morning.....Was it something like "Fuck if I could just get that 10g's back I would walk the fuck away" or was it "Fuck this piece of shit stock I am am going to ride it til I'm up" ?

it was defiantely "fuck if i could jsut get my 10g's back"
i'm reducing my position...but wil hold onto half or so

[997TT]

Originally posted by SilverRex
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgastoday-1.jpg

remember this a while back? that was when someone ask me what to do with NG, I said if I bet its going down :)

the power of wave III

halleluah to WAVE 3

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
dinan, imagine if we got in around $14 or $15
god damn hate averaging down and chasing my losses.

never again am i not setting stops. from down $13k to up now
$17.44.....weeee

i know, shit man, i would have been up few G's not down lol... but now i'm up few bills, i dunno if i should take it and move on or wait for some more... hahahaha, the greed is kicking in...

[SilverRex]

and now wave III is completed.

we are in consolidation mode.

meaning it will move up and down for a while.

either it will then break down and make a double bottom or repeat what it did before, break a uptrendline and sell off towards 2 dollars

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/NG091109.jpg

[Dinan]

you still think will see 2.70 ..... sell or not to sell.... :D


997TT, did you sell :D


wow, just saw oil is under 69$ ... :)

[SilverRex]

remember this froma few days ago

:)

its called dont mess with TA

ive been calling anything 11 or below for oil is fantastic buying opportunity for hod.

ok done with the bragging. I know I Cant be right every time, but when I do I wanted to enjoy every second of it :D

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/NGtoday-1.jpg

[997TT]

Dinan, not yet. lol

Greedy slant eye that i am. 17.80 .... tank NG tank.

[Dinan]

sold at .74 lol.... ahhh i couldn't take it anymore, i was down over 2k and now i'm up few bills, good enough for me, MIGHT buy back, ahhhh NEVER learn :(

[guessboi]

SR are u selling or selling half at this point? how about u dinan?

[Dinan]

i sold all, but should have sold half... i'll buy back half if it dips in the low 17's :dunno:

[guessboi]

I am going to sell end of day today. :rofl: lunch time.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by guessboi
SR are u selling or selling half at this point? how about u dinan?

im holding hnd/hod as long as I Could

but thats not to say price wont turn around.

if my count is correction, and if 69 oil holds. then expect an ABC retracement then drop again

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Dinan]

^^^ nice, i hope you guys got out some what, or something... i'm going to see how the charts look after what just happened today and see, might stay away from etfs for a while lol, i feel 10 years older from last friday till now..:nut: :rofl:


EDIT: but damn 17.15 looks damn tempting... i should just log off and go lol

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Vanish3d]

come on 24 HND! ! lol
got a while to go

[cosmok]

Am I ever glad I sold that HGU this morning above $14 and bought HND under $15. Funny how that works. Great calls again SR :thumbsup:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok
Am I ever glad I sold that HGU this morning above $14 and bought HND under $14. Funny how that works. Great calls again SR :thumbsup:

wow! nice call man! did you sell HND yet... luck guy u got in at the low :thumbsup: lucky ass... my lowest position was at 15$ ...

[cosmok]

I think my average is 14.8, going to hold for lower NG price. Glad to hear you're up as well man. You quoted my post before I edited it even haha, that was fast

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok
I think my average is 14.8, going to hold for lower NG price. Glad to hear you're up as well man. You quoted my post before I edited it even haha, that was fast

hahaha,,, wow, thats a low average man.... nice :thumbsup:

you up really nice here... you can hold over the weekend for sure :) or you can always sell half :D

[RX_EVOLV]

cant believe I end up making money on this HND trade. Solddddd! dont want to have a stressful weekend.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Yea i wan to sell it now

But....SR!! Are you holding HND till monday?

Or do you think it will hit $18 tomorrow, cause im going to sell it then

thanks

yes im holding because I dont buy a million shares like you guys.

but if you are doubtful and want to sleep better. sell it

but if you want the best of both worlds, sell half

if you are a gambler and doesnt cry when you loose all your money, then hold

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

^ difficult to predict because oil can stay within a dollar range, then suddenly drop off and resume breaking lower. or (if US dollar shows more weaknes)

oil could make a retracement back to 70.50-71.50 and in turn could lift NG higher.

I think oil is waiting for the market if not solely on the us dollar to make a move.

but this impulsive drop today could be a setup for what is to come for the general market. if I am not mistakem I remember oil first made new lows to 33 then it started rising aggressively, shortly after the stock market began to rose but a bit of a delay

the only thing I Can take with me to next monday is next week is the final week that the US dollar suppose to bottom. so either we've seen the bottom or it will make one final thrust lower. once completed. a steady up rising dollar should force oil, down over the medium term. and if oil breaks down, NG again will have no where to go but down. the 1 dollar roll over from nov is an added gift

[e36bmw///]

nm

[guessboi]

I am still debating to sell or risk for next week. :nut:

[Dinan]

so monday is the last day of the roll over, and tuesday it trades 100% nov, and it does the split...


the only ballers here are MAX and 997TT :bigpimp: :angel:

[SilverRex]

^ let see if NG plays out like oil when hou first went to 2 dollars then reverse split back to 20 only to drop back to 4, then finally made the rise to 10

if you recall last month's roll over. NG was already selling off from 4.16 to 3.31, even when oct rolled over like 40 cents higher, it continued selling off to 2.41

so as a min, im looking as we trade NG at 4.05, ok lets not be greedy and be realistic, dont you think NG should be able to sell off back to at least 3.00 for the nov contract? I mean oct already touched 2.41

if nov's 4.05 sells off to 3.00, that is 25% which is 50% gain on hnd. so that would move it back to 25.5

but for dreamers, if nov NG sells from 4.05 to 2.41, that would be 40% which is 80% gain to about 31 dollars

of course we're thinking big how else we going to make money :nut:

[997TT]

i'm holding out for the jackpot ... lol
looking for anywhere from $2+/share profit.
i have lots of losses to make up. :facepalm:

[guessboi]

^ poor you. I think i will hold for next week as per SR's tips. being greedy :nut:

[max_boost]

Looks like the markets are still fairly bullish.

Oil and nat gas down. Gold up. TSX up 90pts!

What will next week bring?

Have a great weekend everyone.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
i'm holding out for the jackpot ... lol
looking for anywhere from $2+/share profit.
i have lots of losses to make up. :facepalm:

where did you go wrong? your TCK got back up, what else you been trading or trade?

[troyl]

Originally posted by Dinan
so monday is the last day of the roll over, and tuesday it trades 100% nov, and it does the split...


the only ballers here are MAX and 997TT :bigpimp: :angel:
Isnt it the 17th of september? Which would represent the 12th day of trading for the month.

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan


where did you go wrong? your TCK got back up, what else you been trading or trade?

I've been wrong many times .... haha like others i'm sure, i don't post every single play.

all i know is went back into history and calculated all of my deposits less withdraws and compared that to my current balance. And lets just say it wasn't pretty.

Need to move away from 2x ETF's and into some junior mining/oil/uranium stocks. Then just sit on them for months

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


I've been wrong many times .... haha like others i'm sure, i don't post every single play.

all i know is went back into history and calculated all of my deposits less withdraws and compared that to my current balance. And lets just say it wasn't pretty.

Need to move away from 2x ETF's and into some junior mining/oil/uranium stocks. Then just sit on them for months


yeah i know what you mean, i'm waiting for this pull back SR is talking about, and pick something up... it's just around the corner :D

what stocks have you been playing, if you don't mind :D

trying to get a collection of stock and try buy and let them ride for a bit :thumbsup:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by troyl

Isnt it the 17th of september? Which would represent the 12th day of trading for the month.

not sure, it's trading at 50/50 oct/nov now, so i think thats the last roll, and then it's the split.....wouldn't it be easier to do the split after all the rolling over is done?

[troyl]

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trading Day(s)(1) Primary Contract Secondary Contract
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
1-4 100% 0%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 87.5% 12.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
6 75% 25%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 62.5% 37.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 50% 50%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 37.5% 62.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
10 25% 75%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
11 12.5% 87.5%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 0% 100%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------



4 more trading days until it is fully rolled.

http://www.hbpetfs.com/pdf/20090901_hbp.pdf

[Dinan]

Wow, it takes that long? I thought it was only the 7th,8th and 9th day of the month, so 9 days, that's like half a month, so by the time it rolls over 2 weeks later time to roll over again, :)

With this long rollover you would think the stock shouldn't lose vaule that much, but it has!(damn contango)i bought in at 5.97hnu at about 3.90NG front contract. And today at 3.40 it got up to 2.80, wow, that sucks! When will this hit 6$?

Why can't we get those 5-10% down days again with NG, would be so much easier :)


Despite breaching 50% retracement of 4.16 to 2.409 at 3.28, Natural gas' sharp fall on Friday is still inline with the view that rebound from 2.409 is merely a correction to fall from 4.162. Initial bias is flipped back to the downside this week. Break of 2.744 minor support will bring retest of 2.409 first. Break there will bring fall resumption to 2.0 psychological level next. On the upside, however, break of 3.424 resistance will argue that natural gas has indeed bottomed and will turn focus back to 4.162 key near term resistance.

[SilverRex]

ok so last week the only thing that really moved in our favor and expecation was oil. Which is a good thing since I believe oil leads the market, if oil dropped like that (looking weak) its only logical that eventually it will lead all other markets down...eventually.

so I expected oil to advance to more than 73.50, and anything 73+ was a good shorting opportunity. we got it, it went as high as 72.90 and completely shit the bed, the sudden drop to 69 was a good impulsive move without any significant retracement.

Now price is holding between 68-69 which is testing near previous support. I said if price broke below 68.95, then technically, there isnt much upside left for oil. I expected the drop from 72.9 to 68 as a sub wave I of III. and price should be in a sub wave II correction. unless of course the drop is not finished (pending what the dollar wants to do this morning which I'll explain) but if oil does begin to correct I expect the area between 70.50-71.50 area to provide the resistance we need to further resume oil's decline. Technically, oil must not break above 73.50 remains to be the critical area to maintain the bearish outlook.

If oil does resume decline, next target to reach imo would be in the 65.5 area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil091409.jpg

now looking at gold, the attampt to breakout aftering pushing thru 1007, failed and now looks like there are divergences coming in on higher level chart which does not bold so well for gold. while price is near 1000, its a bull and bear trap right at this moment. I would only look for swing pts only. If you had gone long ways before below 960. you can hold out for possibility of higher gold towards 1030-1189. if not I would stay on the side line and only play the swing pts such as the trend line indicates near 987 or 960-965 with tight stop. or the usual short near resistance at 1011 again with tight stops. on the medium term out look, when gold tops out I expect selling in full force

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold091409.jpg

ok so the most important chart of all, the dollar. as seen below, we will soon enter the final wave v of v of V if you know what I am talking about. The inital assumption that dollar bottom at 77.44 was revised so this more recent count. And if the low last week was a sub wave iii of v of V, then the only two possible out come left is for the dollar to consolidate into a mini wave iv correction that should see it climb no higher then 77.50-77.82, then make one final thurst lower to complete a lower low bottom. Just so happen cyclist is calling turn date this weak as he expects dollar to bottom by or on the 17th. Talk about perfect timing this week. Kudos to his work as I try to match turn dates with EW.

Technically, if the dollar sudden advances early and breaks above 77.82 and especially 78.00 which is a prior sub wave i. Remember price cannot break the previous wave i if the down trend is to be maintained. So if price breaks the above territory, then we know the dollar has bottomed.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar091409.jpg

[Dinan]

anyone getting back into HND, ??? NG is up 12 cents ...

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.860. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.

However, closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.090 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the late summer decline, weekly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target.

Nat gas pivot point for Monday is 3.11

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.090
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.424

First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.40
Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.960


it made it over 3..09, but iti's currently under, maybe i'll buy and have a stop over 3.10 ....

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan
anyone getting back into HND, ??? NG is up 12 cents ...

Natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates above the 10 day moving average crossing at 2.860. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that additional short covering gains are possible near term.

However, closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.090 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If October renews the late summer decline, weekly support crossing at 1.960 is the next downside target.

Nat gas pivot point for Monday is 3.11

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.090
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.424

First support is the reaction low crossing at 2.40
Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.960


it made it over 3..09, but iti's currently under, maybe i'll buy and have a stop over 3.10 ....

3.14 right now

[Dinan]

so today is 50/50, 17 cents and 18 cents up... i'm ganna stay away for now and see, NG took some of my cash already, don't want to give any more :banghead:


i don't see NG going anywhere,, this is a good opportunity to short, but i got fucked big time with it so i'm gonna wait for a clearer picture...

[cosmok]

Wow from being 5k up to 0 gain makes me wish I was near a computer Friday :nut:.

[SilverRex]

picked up some in the mid 14s

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok
Wow from being 5k up to 0 gain makes me wish I was near a computer Friday :nut:.

wow, had 5k and didn't sell, :eek: :facepalm:

[eljefe]

Originally posted by Dinan


wow, had 5k and didn't sell, :eek: :facepalm:

Sounds like he couldn't- wasn't near a computer....bummer dude

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Dinan


wow, had 5k and didn't sell, :eek: :facepalm:
No internet in a combine ;)