Official Short-term Investments Thread [Archive] - Page 182 - Beyond.ca - Car Forums

SilverRex

10-06-2009, 06:31 AM

ok oil is in a critical stage technically speaking its current level of resistance around 71.50 must hold if it doesnt I will start to question the top at 75.00,

while I expect 71.50 to hold if my counts are true, but we cannot rule out the fact that the US dollar may have no bottom. if that scenario plays out, then oil will take out 73.30s therefore while my bias remains bearish, watch the 73.30 area very carefully, if this level is taken out I would imagine that is a bullish trend reversal. and all of this noise we had down to 65 may be only a correction.

yes, until price takes out well above 73, I can only comment that oil along with the US dollar is in a large flat correction. Notice oil is still under the previous trendline which should become resistance. If my initial analysis remains true, then the current level in oil provides a fantastic shorting opportunity. but with price hovering above 71.50, your stop now should be above 73.30

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil100609.jpg

gold finally took out 1006 and 1023 as I said eariler if it doesnt it will be bearish, but even then its right at the door step below 1033. I suggest gold is to top out eventually, while it was struggling to get above 1033 when I expected it too do so, the recent rally still has me doubtful therefore it may worth opening a short position near 1030, because if this level holds and we get a top in gold, then you could potentially ride this until mid november for cyclist's low turn date in gold.

and for the US dollar, while it was unable to breakout of its own down trend line and price is now testing a few critical support the last one near 76.13. until it takes out 75.83 I will still hold on to my bullish view for the dollar. confirmation of trend reversal will come when dollar can clearly break above 77.40, price is extremely oversold. there fore any down side will be limited and reversal will be come quite soon.

also the 76.13 area is a 78.6% fibo retracement support which means we could very well be seeing just a steep correction which typically comes after an initial wave I move.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar100609.jpg

997TT

10-06-2009, 07:33 AM

I thought RIM might find a bottom around $70 (just my guess when it tanked $13 after its disappointing quarterly results) but i guess it looks like it will trend lower. Possbbly testing the gap up .... i'm thinking now is a good time to take an initial position. Maybe add more as every $5.

Dinan

10-06-2009, 08:08 AM

damn, GOLD is on fire!!!!

so are the markets!

where is this pull back? or did we have it, last week....

there is lot of money on the side lines, everything we get some kinda sell off, the buying starts....

davidI

10-06-2009, 08:18 AM

Yea, Bell releasing the iPhone doesn't help - although Canada is a pretty small market in the grand scheme.

I'm somewhat tempted to sell some of my positions today on the up-tick. Is this rally seriously sustainable that much longer!?

KleanCord

10-06-2009, 08:42 AM

I hate to use the words must, has, or will. But this market has to reverse today. If not I am thinking we are only heading higher.

But Gold is now very much overbought, Dollar very much oversold. There are whopping divergences in the both indicators and volume on almost all fronts (oil, gold, SP500).

I am down a lot today and I don't want that to cloud my judgement, but just too many things were and still are pointing to further down. The bounce off the 50 day was to be expected, but then it looks like Goldman threw some more gasoline on when announcing upgrades for the major banks (which had already started to turn down), and now a collapsing dollar.

One thing I have learnt in the past 3 months that I keep vowing to never forget is to stop betting against the trend no matter what reports say.

997TT

10-06-2009, 08:58 AM

Q3 earnings start tomorrow with Alcoa. If they beat or meet the street expect the next leg up. Earnings should be leveraged to the upside with cost cutting initiatives ...

if they disappoint, could be the start of the leg down.

good luck whichever side of the fence you are on...

Dinan

10-06-2009, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
Q3 earnings start tomorrow with Alcoa. If they beat or meet the street expect the next leg up. Earnings should be leveraged to the upside with cost cutting initiatives ...

if they disappoint, could be the start of the leg down.

good luck whichever side of the fence you are on...

what side are you on ?? lol

i'm staying away from etf's... just playing stocks... thats how i made my cash, and lost it on 2x etf's lol :facepalm:

KleanCord

10-06-2009, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by Dinan

what side are you on ?? lol

i'm staying away from etf's... just playing stocks... thats how i made my cash, and lost it on 2x etf's lol :facepalm:

Not that I am a promoter of leveraged ETFs but I am willing to bet you bought stocks and went short with ETFs.

The only way to make money the past 6 months has been going long.

The weird thing is I have lost a lot of money on stocks and made it back on the ETFs (short and long).

997TT

10-06-2009, 09:15 AM

Originally posted by Dinan

what side are you on ?? lol

i'm staying away from etf's... just playing stocks... thats how i made my cash, and lost it on 2x etf's lol :facepalm:

I'm in the same boat ...staying away from etf's and buying stocks.
trying to not make money on the way down (ie short) but rather take profits when i can and view pullbacks as buying opportunities.

Dinan

10-06-2009, 09:17 AM

Originally posted by 997TT

I'm in the same boat ...staying away from etf's and buying stocks.
trying to not make money on the way down (ie short) but rather take profits when i can and view pullbacks as buying opportunities.

any good stocks you playing??

i like LVS,MPEL, WAV.to was good to me ... trying to get some GTE now, fst anc cwei are crazy volatile

SilverRex

10-06-2009, 09:42 AM

interesting, but I Feel its a bull trap since many indicators are extremely over bought. while gold made new highs (which was expected many weeks ago anyways), the dollar is yet to make new lows

sure didnt expect the rally to be so persistant in the last few months since ive been calling a bearish tone since DOW made the 9400 target many months ago.

but its one of those things just when the market finally convinces even the bears to go long, is when they suddenly out of no where fall week after week.

im holding onto my bearish views. :)

the dollar is testing the 78.6% fibo support as we speak and so far is holding. its do or die

bilal.h1

10-06-2009, 09:59 AM

for some reason, i am feeling the same way, i exited one of my long postions today. and going to short some currencies Now. i think market is trying to get as many ppl on board going long, then head down again.starting tom with AA earning release.

sputnik

10-06-2009, 10:13 AM

Here is a pretty good article speculating the current demise of the US dollar.

Basically there is a fear that commodities might be moving away from the US dollar for trading.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

KleanCord

10-06-2009, 10:15 AM

I am actually very worried about earnings season. At least this time analysts have been upgrading this quarter, but it still feels like there is too much negative sentiment which leaves a lot of room to the upside.

RIMs earning results were encouraging for bears like me, because it showed that a company could beat on so many levels and disappoint on Revenue and get hammered. But since then I have noticed companies still not beating on Revs and yet they aren't punished.

I am willing to bet that in 1982 with a new plateau in unemployment companies started beating on bottom lines and not on top and people were probably saying the same thing everyone is today about disappointing revenue with a beat on earnings due to cost cuts isn't sustainable. Yet for almost two straight decades the market would go up.

DRKM

10-06-2009, 10:16 AM

Originally posted by KleanCord

Not that I am a promoter of leveraged ETFs but I am willing to bet you bought stocks and went short with ETFs.

The only way to make money the past 6 months has been going long.

The weird thing is I have lost a lot of money on stocks and made it back on the ETFs (short and long).

All I trade are ETFs. The main problem I see with a lot of the guys on here is the risk controls that you have in place. You have to be willing to risk a certain amount to make a certain amount. Stops are extremely important as well as sticking to your risk/return strategy. Losses should be expected sometimes but are greatly outweighted by returns.

SilverRex

10-06-2009, 10:27 AM

Originally posted by sputnik
Here is a pretty good article speculating the current demise of the US dollar.

Basically there is a fear that commodities might be moving away from the US dollar for trading.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

now I cant help but wonder there is so much news on weakness of the US dollar, but the deflationary scare isnt completely gone yet and the dollar is due for a big rise.

So now what if, we have entered a trendless period where the market will continue to struggle in both directions?

I mean the link you provided suggest china's bearish view in the dollar and so what stops china from unwinding their trillion US dollar asset everytime the US dollar rises? maybe that explains every rise in the US dollar fails.

this could be difficult times, because it would put a cloud over technical anylsis until the dust settles.

all I know is, there could really be a currency crisis coming up if it heats up further.

bilal.h1

10-06-2009, 10:48 AM

djayz

10-06-2009, 10:55 AM

Ohh my god gold went ballistic, was definately not expecting a jump above yesterdays highs :banghead:

Ohh well exited my 12.75 position but now im down huge on HGD, had to open another position today in that. Wish I had held HGU for 1 more day would have done very well.

DJ_NAV

10-06-2009, 11:35 AM

so what etfs is beyong buying??? hnu??

max_boost

10-06-2009, 11:56 AM

Oh noes what happened to the early morning market gains? +250 and now only +120. :cry:

SilverRex

10-06-2009, 11:59 AM

^ bull trap to put all the late comers to hold the bag

KleanCord

10-06-2009, 12:24 PM

^ I sure hope so. My account was decimated this morning and instead of taking my losses as I would have usually done, I decided to keep it running.

But as I said in other posts today. The divergences in the market, oil and gold have been there, it is running into all sorts of trendlines and there has already been a rollover. The last two days felt like a punch in the gut, and I am still worried about Alcoa breaking better than expected results tomorrow.

Edit: Sorry to sound like I am wishing ill on any of you longs. I don't mean to.

Dinan

10-06-2009, 01:27 PM

US$ is going down! and GOLD at 1300-1400
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/q4trades/

bilal.h1

10-06-2009, 01:38 PM

DINAN,
if wat he is suggesting is right, and the S&P 500 is going to test new lows, then US$ should be going up from Now until s&P 500 hit a bottom.

or what do u guys think?

Dinan

10-06-2009, 01:46 PM

Originally posted by bilal.h1
DINAN,
if wat he is suggesting is right, and the S&P 500 is going to test new lows, then US$ should be going up from Now until s&P 500 hit a bottom.

or what do u guys think?

yeah but if the US$ goes up then GOLD shouldn't make new highs though ....:dunno:

KleanCord

10-06-2009, 04:32 PM

I have been noticing strength in Gold over the past couple months despite SRs analysis on the USD. All I can figure is I believe in the strength in the USD coming, but maybe this time Gold doesn't go down on dollar strength. The only way I can see that happen is due to panic.

Government bonds have been going up, the dollar has started to bottom, gold has started to go up, meanwhile the market is rocketing.

Something has to give and the only thing that would make Bonds, USD and Gold trade in tandem would be panic and a flight to safety.

djayz

10-07-2009, 03:01 AM

Originally posted by Dinan
US$ is going down! and GOLD at 1300-1400
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/q4trades/

If this guy is right it could break my entire year with gold alone. And by the current looks of it gold is going on a rampage. I sold out on monday thinking we had reached a top at 1025 for now only to find out the next day it went balistic, it's on course again today for another record breaker and here I am holding the biggest short position I've ever held...boy am i screwed :barf:

SilverRex

10-07-2009, 06:23 AM

so yesterday we were at the edge of our seats. having all market testing their critical resistance and supports and gold made new yearly highs.

however until certain prices gets taken out strongly, I still remain bearish in the general market.

first oil, while I suggested to move your stops to above 73.30, the resistance around the 71.50 area appears to be keeping price in control and so far with oil coming out of overbought territory I am expecting oil to come back down starting now. this could be viewed as a steep 78.6 fibo retracement against its prior move down from 73.30 to 65. which is still normal in the EW count. so my bias remains bearish unless oil can sucessfully take out well above 73.30 until then, look for shorting opportunity at current level.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil100709.jpg

while gold is moving with oil for some time, gold did break out of its own down trend line and forced a blow off top. While its hard to say if this is the top we've been waiting for (if you recall many weeks ago when gold punched thru 965 and 991 respectively, I had a target of some where between 1033-1189) all I know is gold was looking for a top, and while it struggled around the 991-1023 area for quite some time, I didnt expect it had enough strength to push thru 1033, but it finally did. now that gold has a negative divergence to price on MACD. I caution all upside moves to be limited. first we need to confirm by gold breaking below around 1039, then any up move will be viewed as shorting opportunity as well.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold100709.jpg

and for the dollar, remember I said 76.13 needs to hold. apepars to be the magic number right now as it has rallied off this level twice. again similar to oil. the 69.13 area is a 78.6% fibo retracement against its prior up move. Which suggest. which tells me the 75.83 bottom could still be in tact and we are merely seeing a steep correction which often occurs after wave I. I hope this is the case since we have linger long enough anticipating dollar's bottom. With the world completely given up on the dollar, such lob sided extreme will only mean one thing, that is no one left to push dollar further south and the only way it will go is a surprise move to the upside.

with the 75.83 bottom so close to where we are, I will remain bullish until this level is taken out then we will revise our count and review the situation accordingly.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar100709.jpg

davidI

10-07-2009, 07:47 AM

In on HOD @ $11 w/ a stop @ $10.55

Out of my UTS. Nice gains considering I had it at $1.61.

I'm trying to decide if I should exit most of my positions and wait for the US$ to bounce back and drag down the markets. Q3 earnings will certainly be interesting!

Dinan

10-07-2009, 10:08 AM

wow, UUU is on fire today and no news ....

Dinan

10-07-2009, 10:10 AM

i would get out of your gold shorts..

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold106/

davidI

10-07-2009, 11:12 AM

Woo! Go HOD!

Thanks for the analysis on that one SR!

997TT

10-07-2009, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by Dinan
wow, UUU is on fire today and no news ....

Jr Uranium stocks are doing quite well.

PDN up almost 7% too.

Dinan

10-07-2009, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by 997TT

Jr Uranium stocks are doing quite well.

PDN up almost 7% too.

still holding IEC ??

KleanCord

10-07-2009, 11:37 AM

I will explain my gold position:

Unfortunately I was caught short. However, I was originally long and went short for a couple of reasons.

1) USD looks like it is bottoming.
2) Talk has grown too much
3) Seasonallity is negative right now.

After record volume in GLD yesterday and today a flat day I can't help but think it is going to retreat in the near term. Not crash but at least pull back to 980-950.

Dinan

10-07-2009, 11:46 AM

damn! NG is crazy lol!! lots of money to be made if u play it right :D

997TT

10-07-2009, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by Dinan
damn! NG is crazy lol!! lots of money to be made if u play it right :D

and for those that didn't such as myself lots to be lost ... lol

ya, i'm still in IEC. gets up to 0.57 then falls back to .50

also own a bit WEE.V ...

Dinan

10-07-2009, 01:05 PM

Originally posted by 997TT

and for those that didn't such as myself lots to be lost ... lol

ya, i'm still in IEC. gets up to 0.57 then falls back to .50

also own a bit WEE.V ...

i'm not sure, i think i lost more then you :banghead:

yeah i was so close buying it at .46 or soo, maybe i should have...

what other stocks you in or looking at ?

997TT

10-07-2009, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Dinan

i'm not sure, i think i lost more then you :banghead:

yeah i was so close buying it at .46 or soo, maybe i should have...

what other stocks you in or looking at ?

Trust me buddy i can almost guarantee you that i lost more than you on HND/HNU .... :banghead:

so the stocks that i'm looking at are: avl, pre (already own), gtc, pdn, rim, tck.b, bnk, eas, su, gce (all on cdn exchanges)

I would recommend you short any of the above as i buy them .... guaranteed winner.

djayz

10-07-2009, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by KleanCord
I will explain my gold position:

Unfortunately I was caught short. However, I was originally long and went short for a couple of reasons.

1) USD looks like it is bottoming.
2) Talk has grown too much
3) Seasonallity is negative right now.

After record volume in GLD yesterday and today a flat day I can't help but think it is going to retreat in the near term. Not crash but at least pull back to 980-950.

Exactly my thoughts when gold was around 1025 on monday, proved me wrong twice now by hitting a new high on tuesday and now today too.
I'm not looking for a crash but a correction down to sub 1000 is on the charts and in the air it just doesn't seem to be following any trend right now.

I now have 2 short positions on it one from monday and one from tuesday down huge on both already so lots of catching up to do..

997TT

10-07-2009, 02:34 PM

Alcoa posted a profit and revenue number that topped expectations ... shares doing very little so far in after hour trading. But it did run up 10% in the past 2 days ....

could be a good sign for Q3 earnings

Dinan

10-07-2009, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by 997TT
Alcoa posted a profit and revenue number that topped expectations ... shares doing very little so far in after hour trading. But it did run up 10% in the past 2 days ....

could be a good sign for Q3 earnings

they are up over 15$ now....

Dinan

10-07-2009, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by 997TT

Trust me buddy i can almost guarantee you that i lost more than you on HND/HNU .... :banghead:

so the stocks that i'm looking at are: avl, pre (already own), gtc, pdn, rim, tck.b, bnk, eas, su, gce (all on cdn exchanges)

I would recommend you short any of the above as i buy them .... guaranteed winner.

ahhahahah, maybe lol....

you only buy canadian stocks?? any US ??

nah i wouldn't short any lol, but maybe i'll stay away from the ones you in, hahaha, just playing....

i'm going to look into those, thanks :)

PGD seems to be off the highs about 2$ .... i would try and pick some up at the 20 day at about 2$....

KleanCord

10-07-2009, 03:01 PM

Yaaa! the worst is past us. Alcoa posted a gain and -34% Revenue from a year ago.

This is a snapping recovery.

Funny thing is the SPYs and DIAs are not up that much in After Hours. Also a few of my short positions are actually going down on the news. I guess maybe Alcoa beating by cutting 13.5k jobs is not necessarily a good sign for the broader economy.

I guess it is time I join the recovery brigade.

SilverRex

10-08-2009, 06:22 AM

ok so oil was the only thing semi made my expecation by coming down to 69. however it has since been stalled because of the falling dollar, rising euro and gold over night has surge higher.

not much has changed for oil. short term critical trend line continues to be at around 71.50 with make or break level of 73.3.

so those are your two key numbers. if broken. take caution, if not. this is where you want to be if you have any guts left to short the market.

In gold gold did not confirm the negative divergence by clearly breaking down below 1038, instead it helded for hours and finally made a higher higher to 1058. now looking at MACD we have a even stronger negative divergence on the table. which means its only time until it finally hits a top. the pivot resistance lies at 1039 obviously this did not hold and the next level that may signal a top is between 1070-1082.

so my expecation is one more drive higher to reach a top then fall. again in order to confirm we have a true negative divergence we need price to break the red up trend line. so which ever comes first then you will know A top is in place.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold100809.jpg

as for the dollar, the dollar took out the 78.6 fibo support at 69.13 however given the fact its quite oversold and while gold made new highs, the euro, oil never made new highs. so I am concluding we are finally near the end of a dollar bottom. the long grind for the last weeks if not months has been quite painful but all in all its probablly due to a flat correction. While my expecation is that the bottom at 75.83 should hold for the index, I will say any spike below this will be a head fake, with the way things are moving it does not appear the dollar is ready to break down hard instead I think the opposite is going to happen. expect any surprise drive lower in the dollar as the dumb money chasing the wind, I'll say this is quite the bear trap. with my sub wave I count bottom at 76.70, And we know if the run is further down, it cannot re-enter the area of wave I, therefore I will now use this level as make or break for dollar bears.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar100809.jpg

cosmok

10-08-2009, 08:53 AM

69bcf build in NG inventories

davidI

10-08-2009, 09:16 AM

Well, bought HOD @ $11 yesterday and got stopped out at $11.45 when I went for dinner (I'm in Yemen, 9 hour time change).

Trying to decide whether I want to do it all over again today!?

KleanCord

10-08-2009, 09:25 AM

Did the dollar just break down? Why the sudden jump in oil price?

davidI

10-08-2009, 09:32 AM

My thought is oil is up with the markets due to earnings reports coming in strong and the US Jobless report going down this month.

e36bmw///

10-08-2009, 09:36 AM

Dinan

10-08-2009, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by cosmok
69bcf build in NG inventories

and up it goes .... :nut:

Dinan

10-08-2009, 10:33 AM

Dinan

10-08-2009, 11:22 AM

i just noticed, but why isn't there a January contract for GOLD?

damn, new lows for US$ ....:eek:

997TT

10-08-2009, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Dinan

WOW, TCK.b is on the move!!! i hope you still holing guy, can make some of that NG loss :)

Dinan, you must mistaken me for somebody who actually makes money in the markets ... of course i'm not holding TCK. Lol .... sold way too soon and hold my losers way too long.

I've been waiting to get back into TCK but each pull back i pvssy out ... one day i'll buy. lol

Dinan

10-08-2009, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by 997TT

Dinan, you must mistaken me for somebody who actually makes money in the markets ... of course i'm not holding TCK. Lol .... sold way too soon and hold my losers way too long.

I've been waiting to get back into TCK but each pull back i pvssy out ... one day i'll buy. lol

i'm the same way guy! fuck i wait for a pull back and pussy out when i get it,,, ahhhh, i was about to buy LVS under 15$, look at it now... mid 18's :banghead:

KleanCord

10-08-2009, 01:36 PM

Anyone noticing IBM, GS, AAPL, all trading lower on a strong market.

I am starting to think this could be the mother of all Bull Traps.

Why would the leaders be heading down when all signs say they should be going up.

P.S. Don't listen to me. I have barely got any picks right in over a month. At least that is how it feels right now.

Dinan

10-08-2009, 02:03 PM

well AAPL wasn't to bad, and i heard that some analyst said that the new Windows 7 was as good as the AAPL system...

it set another 52week high!

max_boost

10-08-2009, 02:11 PM

HOLY FACK! TCK.B

I had some.....a long time ago :(

Dinan

10-08-2009, 02:13 PM

Originally posted by max_boost
HOLY FACK! TCK.B

I had some.....a long time ago :(

those long time ago, would have make you some real nice cash today!

KleanCord

10-08-2009, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by Dinan
well AAPL wasn't to bad, and i heard that some analyst said that the new Windows 7 was as good as the AAPL system...

it set another 52week high!

So did Goldman followed by going negative at the end of the day. I had turned bullish and then the market had to throw that at me towards the end.

With such a strong day when the Bulls could have bullied anyone left short why did the strongest stocks that started the whole thing fall by the end of the day.

hattonlynch

10-08-2009, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by max_boost
HOLY FACK! TCK.B

I had some.....a long time ago :(
im still mad at myself. picked it up at 4.00 and said "this stock is going to 32 within less then a year". decided to go to montreal, took most of my profits at 12, then the rest at 16 and off i went.

FML

SilverRex

10-09-2009, 06:30 AM

ok so yesterday was really a bit of a mess. no clear direction as price both both ways, amid oil cracking the near term 71.50 resistance it is now trading under again.

I'm re-posting the daily chart just so everyone can see. price is pretty much got as high as it should and it remains under the trendline that broke a few weeks ago.

you can say price is simply retesting the broken trend line. It will be up to the dollar if oil is to remain bearish in the short term.

technically no change from prior readings. 73.3 must hold or it could set off a blowoff top some where above 75 dollar oil. which I do not wish for since I have been calling for a dollar bottom quite some time now.

I will continue to pick the 71+ area as a place to short unless it can take out 73.3

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil100909.jpg

im not going to post gold since not much has really changed, you can expect the direction of gold to follow oil, with gold hovering above 1049, the top side could from yesterday's read has it near by next major resistance at 1070-1082.

and for the dollar, while I expected any sudden drop to be short live and it did briefly touched a notch making a new low to 75.76 price quickly made a move back above 76. However with stoch overbought right now and price is again appears ready to test the lows. the break of the new lows yesterday has me concern, because if it was real breach then the next target would put the dollar at 74 which would be nasty since that will only fuel oil and gold higher.

So now its best to sit a wait for direction. if the dollar bottom is in we should see price get back above 76.70. if it does not the new lows that was set yesterday may signal further dollar weakness ahead.

yes I am surprised at how long this dollar bottoming process has become lets hope for the sake of both bulls and bear we at least can get back to a healthy trend.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar100909-1.jpg

SilverRex

10-09-2009, 07:28 AM

here is another thing to note,

the DOW bounced off the 78.6% fibo retracement yesterday.

now either things such as the US dollar breaking down will cause DOW to further move up

OR

if this 78.6% level holds. then we could begin a wave iii of III decline in the DOW that whould be quite powerful.

the dollar is now trying to close back above 76.13 which is showing early signs that perhaps the break down to new lows yesterday was fake

KappaSigma

10-09-2009, 08:38 AM

Thinking of adding a position in Vonage if it hits around $1.50. Their new app of brining VOIP to blackberry and Iphone I think could be something decent.

s_havinga

10-09-2009, 09:02 AM

Put in an order for HOD at $10.50, we'll see if it gets filled. I am such a sucker for these ETF's... probably be the death of me!

KleanCord

10-09-2009, 09:04 AM

I am confused by the sudden inverse relationship with the dollar. Is this the start of something new or is it simply that a one time affair?

Treasuries are taking one hell of a beating. Could be what is propping up the markets, but I am not sure if this is a trend or based on what Bernanke was saying last night.

SilverRex

10-09-2009, 09:55 AM

this may help the dollar

Asian Central Banks Intervene as US Dollar Sags
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33233199

or do they know something we dont

civic_rida

10-09-2009, 10:39 AM

Anyone still holding wamuq?
Seems like oct. 22 is the big day.

e36bmw///

10-09-2009, 11:10 AM

KleanCord

10-09-2009, 11:22 AM

Anyone found anything on Treasuries?

I would like to know why they are taking the beating they are. I can't see people selling the treasuries while the dollar is rising.

Criticull

10-09-2009, 11:26 AM

Originally posted by KleanCord
Anyone found anything on Treasuries?

I would like to know why they are taking the beating they are. I can't see people selling the treasuries while the dollar is rising. .

Cdn treasuries or US? I think the US ones are declining because of lack of confidence both in the US dollar given it's decline, and the fact that the recent 30 yr bond sale this week went poorly.

e36bmw///

10-09-2009, 11:58 AM

Dinan

10-09-2009, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey SR, any suggestions about NG?
buy more HND or pick up a few HNU?
thanks

i think he said to short NG till november ....

damn the CND is kicking some serious ass.... i bought in at 91cents...

SR, do you see any more upside...

Criticull

10-09-2009, 01:31 PM

How do you guys go about trading currencies? Do you have accounts with forex brokers? I want to buy GBP/CAD, and since it's not a common pair I don't think there is a relevant ETF...is the only way to go to open a forex account?

Meback

10-10-2009, 04:24 PM

Originally posted by Dinan

i think he said to short NG till november ....

damn the CND is kicking some serious ass.... i bought in at 91cents...

SR, do you see any more upside...

I also bought in for 91cents a couple of months ago, I hope USD does not break down any further, as I am holding HGD, but if CND hits a value of $1.10 I m gonna go ALL in on USD.

SilverRex

10-11-2009, 11:12 AM

Monday is a canadian holiday so im just going to be brielf.

the dollar index which made new lows last week was indeed concerning, but it did hold and since moved back above 69. The question time and time again, has the dollar finally bottomed? before we get ahead of ourselves once again, we need confirmation. So far the dollar has rallied off the desecnding wedge that it broke out from and this coming week will be important. I would stay on the side line until we see the dollar can take out about 69.70 and even more so with 70.08, once we do I will confidently say the dollar bottom is finally in.

I know the cyclist has a turn date on oct13. it was projected to be the low in the market, however I have a feeling that may be the top instead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar-2.jpg

oil and gold really dont have much change. oil is still trapped in the 71-72 area and gold is in the top out process. Again oil for weeks now, critical make or break remains at 73.30, once this area is taken out. higher highs would be on the radar, until then, im amazed at how well it is holding up. you could say oil is waiting for the market to roll over. and its doing what it can to keep it under control. But this could be a volatile month as spikes or breaks could quickly be seen as a divergence.

if all things line up perfectly, we should see one drive higher for gold then the decline may begin. Will gold be decoupled with the dollar? I think so but I dont think its anything immediate.

and for the DOW, it has been within an ascending megaphone pattern or a widening wedge what ever you want to call it. there is plenty of over lap which suggest both pattern and overlapping could only mean one thing. it is unsustainable. If the current top in the DOW does not hold, then we are looking into the early 10200-10300s for the next level of resistance. So if the dollar did bottom last week and cyclist turn date on the 13th means anything.

DOW has to come down.. like now. I've been amazed at how persistance the market is this past months. could it be the result of the fed delaying their QE program out by a month? I recall reading a while back some program were supposed to be shut down in sept but instead they moved the dead line out into october. May explain why the market refuse to roll over.

and because of this, cyclist's turn dates could very well be flipped.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow.jpg

SilverRex

10-11-2009, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by Meback

I also bought in for 91cents a couple of months ago, I hope USD does not break down any further, as I am holding HGD, but if CND hits a value of $1.10 I m gonna go ALL in on USD.

well technically it did break down, but the recount has it the CND may rise just abit more then then turn around anyways so any more strength in the loonie should be limited.

Dinan

10-12-2009, 07:53 AM

damn the canadian dollar is on the move!!! :(

why did our market have to be closed, i wanted to give HOD a try... but it seems like it wants to break above 73.5

djayz

10-13-2009, 03:11 AM

Looks like its going to be another slaughter for HGD holders today :(
Man did I jump ship on the worst day ever...

SilverRex

10-13-2009, 06:08 AM

well looks like the critical area of 73.30 did not hold for oil. last stand lies at 75. if this breaks oil may spike higher. I would stay on the side line and wait if oil breaks 75. because for all I know we either have a break out on our hands (aka dollar breaking down)

or this will be the blowoff top that will trap bulls alike.

a quick snap at gold, I was expecting one more drive higher and so far gold finally punched higher but is holding steady and stoch entering overbought, notice the red neckline. This must break to confirm gold is on its way down, until then stay away and we need to see how high gold can muster.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold101309.jpg

for the dollar which is the most important indicator of market direction. notice on the daily chart, we are in the final leg of a wave v of V. however will the 75.80s be the bottom or will it hit the next support in the 74s? Price projection has it that if initial wave I down from 89.50 to 82.50 is about 7 pts. then wave V should also equal wave I that will bring it down from 81.50 to you guessed it 74.

this would be the ultimate level of support imo that if the dollar does break down and target. Of course if 74 does not hold then I will have to revised that perhaps inflation may be at hand and that throws deflation theories out the window. But until that happens, I can only anticipate a dollar rally soon. with all this crappy noise down below the safer bet is to wait until dollar comfortable breaks above the descending red trendline to confirm move. otherwise I know.. its getting quite annoying trying to pick the bottom. I agree. But you know something is about to change. the dollar has gone on down long enough and even if the over all trend is down, it is due for quite a bounce.

again with oil flerting with 75. dollar right at its previous bottom 75.80s, we will know if this is simply a spike/blowoff bottom. of the beginning of one extremely drawn out wave left down to 74s area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar101309.jpg

davidI

10-13-2009, 07:34 AM

Hmm, HOD at $10.24...yikes!

997TT

10-13-2009, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by davidI
Hmm, HOD at $10.24...yikes!

Damn taht is cheap ....

what a gong show driving in ... what i get for putting off my winters.

SilverRex

10-13-2009, 08:22 AM

hmm there appears to negative divergence forming across the board for euro, gold and oil to head down. that is a pretty crazy line up of indicators.

if that is so we could indeed be met with a blowoff top here

Dinan

10-13-2009, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by davidI
Hmm, HOD at $10.24...yikes!

this is why you don't hold those damn 2x ETF's .......

SilverRex

10-13-2009, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by Dinan

this is why you don't hold those damn 2x ETF's .......

here is something that may sooth the pain for HND holders.

remember next months contract is at 5.5 these contango is actually helping NG short holders reduces their risk some what. since can you imagine if we had a clear run from 2.41 low to 5.3, hnd would be much much lower. but partly the rise is due to the contango roll over.

while the contango is huge, and its stablizing (sharp rise is loosing steam) , NG will get rolled over to 5.50 and again hardly sustainable imo.

i must admit, its been quite challenging to pick a top in NG. I still have some position myself. im just going to hold it thru oct and wait for the much anticipated dollar bounce to collasp the price.