Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

ok so the turn date on the 13th came and went, if the market doesnt roll over today then I duno what it is. this bear market rally has gone on long enough and I am starting to feel stupid seeing how persistant it had became.

no matter lets look at oil, after oil broke the 73.3 I mention it was obvious it was headed to retest 75. while 75 is the last stand for oil top, it temporary broke above briefly, it also hadnt spawn the kind of reaction to the upside if 75 was that important. now trading below it at 74.75 I do question how much legs it can have even if it does grind lower. similar to the dollar chart I posted yesterday, the new lows it created is concerning, and we should sit aside and wait for further confirmation.

oil looking like it is in a ascending wedge, does not look like it can sustain at this level for too much longer. I expect a pull back regardless even if the eventual outcome is higher. I see oil falling a few dollars first. then we will see how other markets line up after wards.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil101409.jpg

for gold, 1070 is a special number and so far its doing its job keeping gold down, with the advance bar down this AM, watch the same red neck line, as soon as this breaks its time to play a little to the short side. and for those who remember, ever since gold broke above 991, it was still within my expecation that gold was to find a top some where between 1033-1189. of course I wish this was it, but until the dollar/euro confirm their own move. lets just be patient.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold101409.jpg

today im not going to post the dollar chart just because its going no where, unless something of significance happens such as dollar index pushing right back above 76 then 76.6, it appears it keeps grinding lower and lower. and the next support now that 75.80s did not hold, supposed to be at 74. which imo would be the final chapter in this unbelievable drawn out decline which too exceed my expecation.

anyhow looking at euro a little bit more clarity, as it appears we are entering a final sub wave 5 of V. It is also coming off from its own upper trend channel. therefore my expecation is we may have A top. and to confirm euro has completed its 5 waves up and a new down leg to begin I would like to see it break below 4817. If this happens, this would cause some noise and the dollar should begin to rally and oil to drop. That is why we must hold out a bit and wait for confirmation.

wasnt it today the 1 year anniversy of the dow to drop in oct? actually its the 1 year anniversry of the last rally in 08 which stalled at 9794 then it never recovered unil it touched 6500. let see how much of significance this would impact our market today.

DOW looks to be forming a double top at around 9900, if the market does cave in and dow dips below 9500, then you will know this may finally be it. With the way things are going this past few weeks, it may be better to wait for confirmation then to pick a top which we have been unsuccessful of late.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro101309.jpg

[davidI]

JP Morgan earnings came out way above expectations....82 cents per share rather than the 51 cents EPS expected. Intel had strong results too. Could be an interesting day today and again tomorrow.

Lots of big releases tomorrow - CPI, Jobless Claims, EIA NG Report & Petroleum Report.

[davidI]

HOD at $9.78, how can I not!?! Hahaha

:nut:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by davidI
HOD at $9.78, how can I not!?! Hahaha

:nut:

hahahahah, but oil is holding up over 75$


damn there is no pull back in the cards guys, just need to jump in and buy in dips!

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan


hahahahah, but oil is holding up over 75$


damn there is no pull back in the cards guys, just need to jump in and buy in dips!

thats whay i'm thinking ... i'm still not ruling out a 5-15% correction and with the beta on some of my plays that would mean more ... but buy on dips and go long.

for you guys who are smart it probably means time to short since i'm consistently wrong.

[SilverRex]

not that it will surely happen

but I recall back in 03/04 if my memory serves me right, i was trading euro at the time, and it just broke an important new high, so technically that was suppose to be quite the breakout, however then it fell thru the cracks and went on loosing 10% against the US green back.

so these breakout of late could be a trap. the market has gone way beyond it needs to and the risk is back there with many people all sugared up.

just take caution

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


thats whay i'm thinking ... i'm still not ruling out a 5-15% correction and with the beta on some of my plays that would mean more ... but buy on dips and go long.

for you guys who are smart it probably means time to short since i'm consistently wrong.

yeah thats why leave some cash to average down a bit:D

[bilal.h1]

i am gonna stick to my theory. currently going long on USD/CAD.

[Dinan]

^^ hope your right.....



could we see 10k on the down today ?

[997TT]

should've picked up some GTE at $4.4-4.5
oh well, least Pre is doing well.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
should've picked up some GTE at $4.4-4.5
oh well, least Pre is doing well.


yeah i know, i was looking into GTE too...


wow PRE is on fire! nice, should give u some of your NG loses...

you almost got your 15$,


i remember you talking about it when it was under 13$ :( ahhhh, nice pick!

hold it, you never know it could be the next TCK :D

[cosmok]

USD looks very weak right now

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok
USD looks very weak right now

now? it's been weak for a very long time now :(

[Dinan]

crude oil heading over 90$
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/crudeoil1013/


looks like we closed over 75$ today!

[Dinan]

wow, the DOW at 10022 :eek:

[bilal.h1]

god damn

[max_boost]

Don't fight the force! Markets are ready to explode! LOL

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
Don't fight the force! Markets are ready to explode! LOL

hahahah, lets hope on the up side :D


DOW closed over 10k and oil over 75$.


and the damn canadian dollar is at 97.5 :facepalm:

[KleanCord]

I promise that is the last time I try to trade against the grain.

Mostly long and strong.

[cosmok]

API Crude Report
Oil imports were down 585K bbl per day. There was a small overall draw at 178K bbl. Refinery utilization drops from 84.3 to 81.2, expected build of 700K but API data show a draw of 2.6MM in gasoline stocks.

If these estimates are correct, watch the price of oil [artificially] go through the roof tomorrow due to the shut-in of capacity at refineries. API has been wrong before so take the numbers with a grain of salt.

[davidI]

Haha, I suck at reading the markets.

[Meback]

GOLD is SHOWING wEAkNESs! PARTY TIME!

[SilverRex]

ok so oil over night shot up to 76+, but only to get shot back down immediately, this was caused by the fact oil for the 1st time on the daily chart has hit its 38.6% fibo which in a way is a significant retracement.

however with the break above 73 and 75 I must recount the entire run that the recent consolidation looks more like a triangle pattern which suggest this was the wave iv correction, and with the break out, chart wise it suggest we are to find a top somewhere between 75-91.

as scary as that sounds. we just have to wait and see, for the short term it may have turn bullish but in saying so all eyes are not on oil but rather on the dollar. yes because the dollar is extremely close to major support which I'll explain later.

for now its still better to wait even thought the break out above 75 appears tempting, for risk takers you can try to go long on pull backs with tight stop. for longer term traders we may want to see price break below 65 to confirm the top is completed. of course depending on what the dollar does we could pull a top sooner but will have to wait and see

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil101509.jpg

for gold after nearly two weeks, it has finally taken out the uptrend neckline, so we have A top at 1070 in place. with this I expect a bit further weakness first down to the 1020-1025 area (previous peak), and if furhter weakness pervails the next probable low would be in the 995-1005 area

the other outcome unless gold can quickly close above 1060, the trend at the moment is down.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold101509.jpg


now onto the dollar, as you can see, ever since it broke thru 75.83, I guess from a technical picture it was in fact bearish and we should be looking at the next major support which is at 74. with the low at 75.20s, we are extremely close. Not only is the next support at 74 is around the corner, but if EW theory suits me correctly, wave V often equals wave I in length. looking back when this entire decline started. the dollar dropped a good 7pts from 89.5 to 82.50, and if you take that measurement and apply to our current wave iv top we get exactly 74. coincident? I've always wonder if this was a possibly, but now im more of a believer, just didnt think this would get drawn out so long. but we are definately near some sort of significant pull back that will put the dollar back onto the prior wave iii/iv range which is 79.5-81.00 regardless if the overall direction is up or down.

So now we wait either a break above the trend line (denote in red) or price hits 74 which ever comes first.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar101509.jpg

[SilverRex]

also someone posted on the S&P, which sums up how close we are near a level of significance.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/StY5J5Bmz3I/AAAAAAAACKo/mqMeTwi-d4E/s1600-h/spxdaily.png

[davidI]

^thanks for that chart link. Very interesting...

I was hoping RIM would pop today a bit on the Storm2 announcement and RBC's buy recommendation, but alas it's down to $70 again. Guess October is my month to give back some gains.

I think Maxboost has the right idea with XIU!!

[cosmok]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.html

For those of you interested in the weekly NG report

[cosmok]

And http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt for oil

[Proyecto2000]

OPC has been looking good all week, hopefully I can reach my break even point one of these days :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
OPC has been looking good all week, hopefully I can reach my break even point one of these days :D

damn, any news? $2.51

[Z_Fan]

I just sold a stock that I have had a huge loss on now for some time.

But for those who like to hear nasty stories...to help you feel better about what you've lost, here is this one.

Book Value: $14,854.67
Sale Value Today: $16.05

Loss: $14,838.62

Virtually 100% loss.

Happy trading guys! :devil:

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I just sold a stock that I have had a huge loss on now for some time.

But for those who like to hear nasty stories...to help you feel better about what you've lost, here is this one.

Book Value: $14,854.67
Sale Value Today: $16.05

Loss: $14,838.62

Virtually 100% loss.

Happy trading guys! :devil:

damn!

only news from Opti is that they just got the upgrader working again so the oil/money is finally starting to flow :clap:

[HuMz]

Originally posted by Dinan


damn, any news? $2.51

Steam upgrader back running and earnings report coming up on the 28th which should be postive news.

Proyecto2000 what did you buy in at?

[civic_rida]

Thats why i never hold more than 10g in a single stock. Could never stomach that loss.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
I just sold a stock that I have had a huge loss on now for some time.

But for those who like to hear nasty stories...to help you feel better about what you've lost, here is this one.

Book Value: $14,854.67
Sale Value Today: $16.05

Loss: $14,838.62

Virtually 100% loss.

Happy trading guys! :devil:

wow, sorry to hear that man :(

what stock was this ?

[Z_Fan]

Material Technologies.

This started a long time ago really. But yeah, this is why you must follow the stock, and why you must set stop losses and NEVER EVER have faith that it will one day come back. Because, well, there is no reason that it will unless you are lucky.

:poosie:

[cidley69]

So, after reading that never come back theory...will HOD ever come back above $11?

[Z_Fan]

LOL the difference between $9 and $11 isn't much. That's a start point of $11000 versus a now point of $9000 - you might make the decision to wait and that is in fact how it all starts.

However, it's totally different scenario because some stocks are not really based on anything. And HOD is based on something...

Go figure. ;)

[max_boost]

$80 oil tomorrow. Bye Bye HOD holders. :devil:

[997TT]

Originally posted by Z_Fan
Material Technologies.

This started a long time ago really. But yeah, this is why you must follow the stock, and why you must set stop losses and NEVER EVER have faith that it will one day come back. Because, well, there is no reason that it will unless you are lucky.

:poosie:

Sorry to hear your loss. don't worry, i dwarf your loss in HND ... not in % terms but in real dollars.

Fkn trade has scarred me for life. Just need to move on and get it back slowly ... i hope. lol

[Neil4Speed]

Sorry for your Loss Z-Fan, these things happen, and you can learn from it and come out stronger!

A pretty general vague question/comment for you guys.

I have really noticed that many of the big oil have turned around and are able to commission a pretty good premium on their stock value (CNQ, TLM, BIR), while others have failed to go anywhere such as Husky and Imperial (and Enerplus in my experience fuck). Its funny because in my limited knowledge I would have assumed that most of the big oil to have a pretty similar return in the long run as they are all operating out of a similar geologic area.

That brings me the question, do you feel that the blue chip oil that performed poorly since the crash have greater room for growth, or are in the position they are in for due reason.

Iteration Energy has always been a stock I have been watching, I was able to capitalize on their 40% raise in the last month, and repositioned myself around 1.22 with the hope of another increase given their impressive land assets and the increased price of Gas which may be prime target for a takeover. Thoughts??

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by HuMz


Steam upgrader back running and earnings report coming up on the 28th which should be postive news.

Proyecto2000 what did you buy in at?

$3.35

are you also holding OPC?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


$3.35

are you also holding OPC?

if you averaged down then you could have been out by now :p

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


Sorry to hear your loss. don't worry, i dwarf your loss in HND ... not in % terms but in real dollars.

Fkn trade has scarred me for life. Just need to move on and get it back slowly ... i hope. lol

yeah, same here! my HNU trade has scared the shit out of me! i'm trying to move on and don't trade as many shares now, if i have i could have made more money since, but it's hard to get over that loss! :facepalm:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
$80 oil tomorrow. Bye Bye HOD holders. :devil:

http://broadcast.ino.com/education/crudeoil1013/


posted that few days ago...

[max_boost]

997TT, you have so much $$$, plow it all into XIU. When it hits 13,000, you probably make back everything you lost hahaha

[HuMz]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


$3.35

are you also holding OPC?

Yeah I bought in at around $1.50 at the end of August, i'd like to hold it long term but I'll be needing a downpayment on a house pretty quick so ill probably sell around 3$.

[s_havinga]

So is the general concensus that oil is going up now? Wow I am good at making bad picks, now I am in on HOD and HDN and losing with both of them I am in HOD at around $11 and HND at around $8 should I count my losses and get out or hold on? My first two trades in ETF's and I am down over 25%, what do you guys recommend?

[997TT]

Originally posted by max_boost
997TT, you HAD so much $$$, plow it all into XIU. When it hits 13,000, you probably make back everything you lost hahaha

Max, edit on original post

[SilverRex]

ok so my expecation that to buy on the dip ever since oil broke 75 appears to be holding true.Once it retested 75 the shot up over 78.

the question is how much further can it go?

why I actually would want a completely collaspe and begin our wave III down on the daily chart. but I cannot ignore the fact that the recount suggest a higher top is in the works.

currently I anticipate a bit of a pull back then go for another shot higher. I would contemplate a top some where starting at 85 as that is 20 dollars off 65 which equals the run from 35-55. That would be my first guess as EW states wave V typically equals length of wave I.

the other higher target would be near 91 as that is the 50% retracement from the entire decline since 2008 peak.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil101609.jpg

for gold. it also finally begin to move in my favor ever since it broke the neckline it was obvious a retest of that line was the place to go short. now I expect it should produce a further low some where to its prior sub wave iii/iv range 1035-1040 at the least then perhaps a little pull back before making another dive.

I am not sure if 1070 is our top yet, it will depend on how the dollar plays out next week to confirm a few things

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold101609.jpg

right now for the dollar, I no longer expect to believe it will rally hard above my critical resistance (in purple) until I actually see it do it. so my expecation is it has completed a sub wave III, and will repeat what it did late sept but producing another ABC correction to the upside, then make one final sub 5 wave pattern selling down towards the 74 area to call it a final bottom. the surprise would be to take out 76 as well as 76.66. if that happens I will be laughing since ive been dying to see it do this type of breakout to the upside for weeks if not months. And what would be ironic if it does it right when my expecation is further weakness. we will see soon enough. unless the above takes hold. expect heavy resistance at that red line around 76 then make another 2 pt grind towards 74.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar101609.jpg

[997TT]

guys should check out WEE.

everytime there is some news it pops for a nice gain. I'm in around $2.

What a shock ...venture stock with news release creates a pump. lol

[davidI]

Hmm, DOW is getting crushed on the BOA earnings release...

[sputnik]

Originally posted by davidI
Hmm, DOW is getting crushed on the BOA earnings release...

The Dow is also getting hit hard by IBM and GE today.

The BOA loss is small potatoes compared to those two.

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Dinan


if you averaged down then you could have been out by now :p

I thought of doing it a few times, but I didnt want to risk losing even more on that stock. O well I will just hold it long term, give it a year or two and it will probably do well.

[cosmok]

Sick jump on HNU today

[SilverRex]

anyone still holding wamu

volume is extremely dry and price is holding steady at 0.21s which is extremely encouraging.

with next court date at OCt 22, I expect some activity beginning near close and next week leading up to the court date.

my expecation is, if the betting begins once again, we should see a bit of a rally towards high 20cent or early 30cents before it is to be met with heavy selling.

over all I expect we will consolidate after that between 0.025-0.30 then follow by a breakout.

[Dinan]

NAL Oil & Gas Trust enters into arrangement agreement to acquire Breaker Energy Ltd.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2009/13/c5946.html



what you guys think? picking up some WAV.to ?

[civic_rida]

Im holding Wamuq and cant wait to see what this week brings hoping for $8+

[e36bmw///]

nm

[guessboi]

$8. LOL. that's a hugh sprike. lol. u better sell it fast if it gets there. lol. what goes up must go down. especially those sprikes. lol.

[Red@8]

I am hoping for $0.28 for wamuq

[SilverRex]

ok its a new week its OCt, every market is at a high. regardless if the world has fully recovered or not. technically its due for a big correction. but until this is confirmed we can only stay with the trend as I have learn, cant fight the trend right?

looking at oil. ever since it took out 73 and 75, the short term trend is clearly bullish. it was a good call to go long after it retested 75 last week, touching 79 abouts. you can tell oil is in an up trend channel. my expecation is a good swing trade shorting at the upper channel near 80-80.50 could be had. based on my count if I am correct, once it breaks below the red trend channel trend line (in red) it will trace out a larger correction back to the 74-76 area.

and over all, until it can take out and re enter below 73 again, I will not call it bearish just yet.

my expecation for a target top is around 85 which is 20 dollar off our revised count Major wave IV bottom at 65. which is a good projection based on the wave V equal wave I theory and wave I did give us 20 dollars from 35 to 55.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil101920.jpg

for gold, we have have A top at 1070. and recalling last week's suggestion, it was a good place to short after gold broke down below its up trend neckline. it retested the line as I expected and since then is unable to find its way back above it. my expecation would be unless it can close and remain above 1060, otherwise any upmove will be shorted heavily imo this week. and we should begin a slow grind decline with initial target back to around the low 1000s. gold will need to take out 1000 again in order to suggest any more weakness ahead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold101909.jpg

and finally the dollar, the dollar aftering hitting the low 75s, has been trying to move higher but the run looks corrective similar to the last correction. unless the dollar can take out 76 then 76.6, I will not call a dollar bottom until it reaches 74. therefore wait a bit for confirmation. if the dollar takes out the purple line to the down side its an immediate short resumption to new lows imo. otherwise wait and see what the dollar is trying to do when it comes to near 76 and more importantly 76.6, technically it will not turn bullish until thess levels are taken out. you can attampt to swing trade by shorting any rally near those levels with a tight stop. and if there is newer lows coming, then those would be the ideal entry point.

Remember, while my expecation is further weakness, but things CAN suddenly take a turn, but the good thing is we will know if things have turned the corner with the critical resistance I mention above. keep your eyes peeled.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar101909.jpg

[SilverRex]

also the dow closed below 10k on friday. just the beginning of how a sharp sell off will look like. all it takes is one bad sentiment/news release or bad earning the sell off will become more violent.

I believe the next resistance target is 10300, and it is to my understanding the selling pressure will mount between 10k-10300 right now I am expecting this to be A top. since that is the 50% retracement from the 14k to 6.5k low.

another reason why I think the top is near, not only is it a 50% retracement, but this rally has gone on for 6+ months and hasnt given much of a healthy retracement on the way this is unhealthy in an uptrend and could fall sharply since there isnt much support underneath. also, the volume has been dropping every inch it goes higher which is also a divergence.

while I applaud anyone who's been long on this lengthy mini bull rally. caution is advised I will not go long at these levels. once you begin to see the violent swings, it would be a better risk/reward even for day trade to short the high starting with DOW over 10k.

I Feel the dollar is ready for a good rally either starting this week or upon touching 74.

[yoda124]

an important indicator that no one is talking about is the SPYDR's approaching that 110.34 point filling in a huge gap down that happened on oct 6 2008.We are at a top or very close to it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=SPY&a=09&b=3&c=2008&d=09&e=31&f=2008&g=d

[almerick]

Originally posted by Dinan
NAL Oil & Gas Trust enters into arrangement agreement to acquire Breaker Energy Ltd.
http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/October2009/13/c5946.html



what you guys think? picking up some WAV.to ?

It's up 0.36 (6.73%) :eek:

[max_boost]

^

Not as much as TIM (Timminco) +$0.98 = +57%! haha

120% in 2 days.

I ain't touching that stock or anything small. Index investing FTW for me haha

[Dinan]

Originally posted by almerick


It's up 0.36 (6.73%) :eek:

yeah, i picked some up on Friday near the close :D

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
^

Not as much as TIM (Timminco) +$0.98 = +57%! haha

120% in 2 days.

I ain't touching that stock or anything small. Index investing FTW for me haha

Wav is not small


wow, TIM
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/10/19/afx7016839.html

[almerick]

Originally posted by max_boost
^

Not as much as TIM (Timminco) +$0.98 = +57%! haha

120% in 2 days.

I ain't touching that stock or anything small. Index investing FTW for me haha

Whoa! That stock is bananas!

(Sorry I just wanted to use an uncommon word)

[DJ_NAV]

can't believe oil is up this much.... time for it to retract!

[SilverRex]

ok so oil remains in its up trend channel. after hitting the upper channel over night it came down from the 80s as I expected. however we cant trade after hours, so that is the bummer, we will see if market open will give us another shot above 80 to open a short position however the upper channel top is now closer to 81. the chart shows there is a sharper uptrend line supporting price underneath (in red) breaking this will test the lower channel. of course I cannot tell you when they will break until they do, and if they do especially the bottom channel, it will be bearish action back to the 200 EMA at 75s. Stoch is also breaking down as we speak, I dont think oil has much upside left without a larger correction.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102009.jpg

for gold, gold is again back above 1060s however its been struggling ever since. now looking at it, there are two necklines, which one are we moving to? are we simply retesting a previous broken support now turned into resistance and should be head down next or did we re-close above it and retested the same support to launch gold higher?

right now its back to neutral, it was setup for a nice fall but the fact that it got back above 1060 suggest hold on for a second and wait. we are very close, unless gold breaks out above 1070, I am still thinking short. stoch is overbought, however the safer bet is to wait until gold takes out 1055

also keep in mind around 1045 is a larger neckline that this chart could in a way produce a H&S pattern that will bring gold down to 1006 again.

but until it does gold could very well be moving side ways between 1055-1080until the market takes a larger breather that should point gold in a new direction.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102009.jpg

finally, not fighting against the trend, the last abc correction upwards was indeed a correction. once it took out the trend line underneath (circle in black) it was obvious its headed to new low. we got our new lows, but again no dramatic sell off as most expect, only a slightly newer low then price made its way back above. The entire chart is bearish until it hits 74 imo, right now dont get excited unless dollar can take out 75.5, then 76 or even 76.6 those will remain on my confirmation radar screen that the dollar is on an aggressive up move. until that happens. continue to think short the dollar until we see these technical breakouts or if it hits 74 which ever comes first.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102009.jpg


also ive posted this dow comparison chart up with today's dow movement and the movement in the 1030 comparison. do you see any similarities? I'll let you decide. caution is definately advised for going long in the market place.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dowcompare.jpg

[Vanish3d]

sooo since the the general favor for beyond is to short oil, I just bought some

lets try this out for once cuz everytime I follow the beyond trend I get killed.

come on 85 oil!

[guessboi]

i hope u are right SR with the bear...haven't been trading much for the past 2 months.

[davidI]

haha, yea, I've been sitting on the sidelines for a while now (other than a few swing trades here and there) so hopefully the market returns to reality in the next few weeks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/11-ETFs-You-Shouldnt-etfguide-3843425160.html?x=0&.v=1

[cosmok]

UUU has been fairing well recently

[civic_rida]

wamuq crashing for some reason.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civic_rida
wamuq crashing for some reason.

yeah I added an extra position on friday, looks like im taking that back off the table.

I guess the market is saying there wont be anything ground breaking out of the OCt22 hearing.

none the less im still going to hold onto my 45k position until they come to a resolution or a pop which ever comes first.

might add if they dips to 0.175

[SilverRex]

let see gold below 1055, euro is beginnig to look impulsive crashing down.

dollar is breaking above 75.5, let see could we have an early top here folks?

[cosmok]

^USD seems to have leveled off at 75.7x

[SilverRex]

^
key here is volume, for the past months. both gold and dow has been inching higher and higher with declining volume.

either way you look at it, the market is due for a pretty substantial correction.

it needs a catalsyt, would it be a strong rising dollar? interest rate hike? the details release of the banks insolvency test?

[cosmok]

^It'll be an interesting week, good luck to everyone

[DJ_NAV]

yea gl to everyone... anyone buying any USD? is it gonna turn around now or is the CND gonna go above the USD?

what about gas? I think 'm jumping on HNU. Everyone tells me gas has no reason to go up... i kinda agree... but it still is going up. the USD going down and winter causing demand to go up is probably pushing it higher IMO.

[HuMz]

Anyone have some good tips on a few short term holds (month or 2 tops)?

Don't have the time to follow ETF's close enough given there so volatile, thinking about loading up on NSU tomorrow.

[SilverRex]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dIi3oz-4vY

Harry Dent Oct update on the market

[DRKM]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^
key here is volume, for the past months. both gold and dow has been inching higher and higher with declining volume.

either way you look at it, the market is due for a pretty substantial correction.

it needs a catalsyt, would it be a strong rising dollar? interest rate hike? the details release of the banks insolvency test?

From a news point of veiw a lot of news is coming out about the need for a strong American dollar.

At the moment what other currency is going to replace it? The rand? The euro? The Aus dollar?

I see this downward momentum for gold stocks and tsx lasting for at least 2 days on opening daily prices.

Oh sr. The one thing that I think is an important difference between the 30s and now is the amount of stimulus spending the goverment spent. In the 30s they still tried to balance the budget even as shit was going down the tube,

[djayz]

From the Globe and Mail.


TFSA move targets savvy investors
Roma Luciw
15:18 EST Tuesday, Oct 20, 2009
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Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's crackdown on Tax Free Savings Accounts targets a small group of savvy investors and traders, who are taking advantage of loopholes and insufficient penalties to reap significant rewards, but will leave most Canadians unscathed.

Introduced at the start of this year, TFSAs allow people to save or invest $5,000 a year for any purpose – retirement, education or a rainy-day fund – without paying tax on any gains. The problem is that some sophisticated market players are using them as an active-trading tax avoidance scheme.

“For the average everyday Canadian who is putting $5,000 a year into a TFSA account, these changes will be of absolutely no interest,” said Jamie Golombek, managing director tax and estate planning CIBC Private Wealth Management. “It is a group of highly sophisticated traders and investors who are exploiting the rules. It is not a lot of people, but the people who do it have huge opportunities for tax-free gains.”

In an announcement released late Friday, the Finance Minister unveiled a series of changes designed to clamp down on “inappropriate transactions to draw excessive benefits.” The changes, which kicked in on Saturday, aim to eliminate schemes that involve investors making deliberate over-contributions or unapproved investments because the tax-free gains exceed the penalties.

The first loophole Mr. Flaherty is trying to close is deliberate over-contribution, where people put money into their tax-free accounts in excess of the annual $5,000 limit. The old penalty for going over the limit was 1 per cent a month tax on the excess contribution. Under the new rules, people will also have to pay a 100 per cent levy on any gains or income they make with the excess contribution, effectively erasing any incentive to earn that money.

One theoretical situation involves an investor putting an extra $100,000 into a TFSA and buying a junior mining penny stock on bets it will be taken over. If the company does indeed get scooped up and the stock doubles, the investor would have to pay a penalty of $1,000 (the 1 per cent a month on the amount of the over-contribution) but would be left with a large gain that is then secure in a tax-free shelter. The new rules will mean that all of the investor's stock gains and/or income from the $100,000 excess contribution will go to the taxman.

“For the average person who invests a little more than $5,000, this is not a big deal. Again, this is targeting people making enormous amounts of over-contribution,” Mr. Golombek said.

The government was also concerned about asset transfer transactions, where investors were trying to make gains in the value of their investments by transferring money from their RRSPs and other registered savings plans, which discourage early withdrawals with heavy taxes, to their TFSAs. From now on, TFSA amounts that are “reasonably attributable” to these kinds of transfers will face a tax of 100 per cent.

The last loophole Mr. Flaherty tackled relates to prohibited or non-qualified investments. It appears some investors were making these investments despite the existing penalties because the gains remained in the accounts even after the offending purchase was removed. Again, under the new rules, any gains on prohibited investments, such as shares of a company in which you own a significant interest, will be taxed at 100 per cent while any secondary income related to non-qualified investments, such as land or general partnership units, will be taxed at regular rates.

Mr. Golombek believes the amendments will cause investors to second-guess their questionable tax strategies.

“These new measures are punitive and have taken away the advantage that existed. It also may give any financial institutions ammunition to warn investors who are engaged in this kind of trading.”

Finn Poschmann, vice-president of research at the C.D. Howe Institute, said TFSAs are still a good investment with strong appeal. “Like everything else, they do need regulations so that people do not take advantage of them.”

He believes Canadians are finding TFSAs to be a attractive vehicle for savings and that, over time, Ottawa should consider raising the contribution limit for them.


There goes the advantage of using this account. 100% tax on any gains made on over contributions is stupid, should make it like 85% plus the 1%/month.

Anybody been using their TFSA like that? I sort of have without over contributing, just trading in and out with the 5000 but nothing crazy

[Bisklimpkit]

^ I've been using my TFSA, but just with the $5000 so I guess none of this applies to me. I don't think that what is being done to close these loopholes is bad, though, as I think the gov't is going to be losing enough money as it is with these things. Don't get me wrong, I like finding legal ways to give the gov't as little of my money as possible, but the way the TFSA was able to be used was taking way too much tax money out of their hands, which would probably come back to bite the tax-paying citizens in the end.

[SilverRex]

so as per yesterday or the start of this week, shorting oil at around 80+ was indeed a good swing move. as it is now below 78, not only did we get a good shorting move at 80, but it also broke the up trend channel which is short term bearish.

I expect oil (possibly because of oversold to retest the broken up channel) to make a move lower over time to test the prior range iii/iv range between 74.5-76.5

oil on a larger scale remains bullish and correction to the 75 area remains healthy. I would only consider the 80s as the top if oil can some reason take out 74 it would turn the chart back to neutral and upon taking out a previous wave I top at around just under 71, then oil will have completely its last wave 5 of 5 top at 80.24 but we are far from that, we'll look at that if we get there.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102109.jpg

gold was indeed retest the previous broken neckline which was lifted above 1060s. since then it has form a right shoulder of a H&S pattern this pattern would be very bearish with a target back to 1006 if it can take out 1046 today. there fore watch closely at this red neck line. until then you may expect a good swing trade with tight stop near 1045. otherwise be ready, I think its only matter of time until it takes out this to trace out a lower gold. imo this would coincide with oil hitting back the 75 area.

for gold to resume higher it will have to take out 1060, which I dont see if happening right now. until then I Expect the first attampt near 1046 to hold, and should complete a small 5 wave pattern that will retrace back to the range of 1052-1060, then make a new move to break 1046 then begin further decline. imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102109.jpg


for the dollar the down trend line rejected price to the spot and twice it did sending the dollar back down, but this morning it is trying to make another crack at the same line, this would turn it bullish in the short term if it can take out the red line and trade above it. until then the general feeling is to expect the dollar take out the bottom up neckline and things will be back to normal (aka weak dollar) but if we get the breakout scenario then all eyes will be watching since i would expect the dollar to begin retesting the important 76 area. the bullish case will increase if it takes 76 out as well. then we may an early stage of what appears to be finally a strong rising dollar moving in.

so this week will be quite the setting if we get that.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102109.jpg

[997TT]

I'm gonna sound like a fkn idiot for posting this but since i hardly ever make money and dont know any of you guys anyways ... fk it. haha

WEE is up 10% ....

wwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeee (symbol happens to tie to the joy of making money ....something which i hardly experience).

I need to shadow Max and buy XIU and only XIU

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
I'm gonna sound like a fkn idiot for posting this but since i hardly ever make money and dont know any of you guys anyways ... fk it. haha

WEE is up 10% ....

wwwwweeeeeeeeeeeeeee (symbol happens to tie to the joy of making money ....something which i hardly experience).

I need to shadow Max and buy XIU and only XIU

hahahaa,,,, hope you bought shit loads of that :)

Pre is doing good too.... still holding that too ?

[civic_rida]

Wow wamuq not doing what I thought it would.

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan


hahahaa,,,, hope you bought shit loads of that :)

Pre is doing good too.... still holding that too ?

ya still holding PRE. can't decide if i should sell here and attempt to rebuy lower or if i should just ignore the ST volatitily and view it as a MT-LT play.

last thing i want is another TCK where buy/sell 10-15x only to make less than i would've had i done nothing. Its fantastic feeling selling for $1/profit here and there when the stock goes up 10x over. last rebuy was at $17 so essentially its doubled since then and i've been on the sidelines thinknig WTF

[SilverRex]

euro breaking above 1.5

dollar ready to make new lows.

come on lets get this 74 bounce over with

Dow ready for new highs, next stop 10300 should be interesting

edit: or a double bottom at 75 that works too, seems like the breakout isnt as strong as I thought, head fake?

[Dinan]

wow!

oil at 80.50 :eek:
CND over 96 cents
Euro over 1.50
DOW is trading over 10k
gold in the 1060's

NG is over 5$... damn

everything is on the move!

[s_havinga]

don't remind me!, man this is just not a good month for me. I just have no idea how things are going to go now. It doesn't seem like anyone does... everything I read says we will either have a correction, or things will keep steadily increasing... I broke my own personal rule by buying HND and HOD, I have always held the theory that the markets will always go up eventually and then I went and bought etf's that work against my theory :facepalm: now I am at a loss on what to do... do I count my losses (now 35%) and jump on the bull train or wait it out and see what happens? I can hold the stocks as long as I need to but I am just losing confidence that oil and NG are going to drop in the next 6 months or so. Maybe this recent rally is just clouding my vision but I am getting pretty frustrated with myself and the bad trades I have been making lately.

[max_boost]

Do not fight the force! HA!

997TT, XIU all the way haha

Djayz, they are on to you!:devil:

[SilverRex]

caution boys, GS chart is looking bearish negative divergence forming going to roll over. and if GS rolls over, the market will follow.

dollar is near A major bottom, of course ideally it would land right at 74 on the index, why 74? wave V = Wave I, wave I gave us a 7 t drop. and from 80.50 which was wave IV, that puts it right at around 74 ish.

you guys can continue to swing trade, but I do not recommend a buy and hold at these level for more than a few week

[HuMz]

Fuck TD:banghead:

Tried to load up on some NSU & SDX this morning but kept on getting an error message.

SDX up a whopping 60% and NSU around 10%:facepalm:

[djayz]

Originally posted by max_boost
Do not fight the force! HA!

997TT, XIU all the way haha

Djayz, they are on to you!:devil:

Haha who's on to me?

I've been holding HGD for 2 weeks now and it has barely moved. Everyday gold dies down near the end of the day, next days open then starts low and heads higher and it repeats like this everyday. I know the day I try to swing trade HGU im going to get screwed as thats the day gold will tank...where the hell is this correction!!! haha

[max_boost]

Originally posted by djayz


Haha who's on to me?

I've been holding HGD for 2 weeks now and it has barely moved. Everyday gold dies down near the end of the day, next days open then starts low and heads higher and it repeats like this everyday. I know the day I try to swing trade HGU im going to get screwed as thats the day gold will tank...where the hell is this correction!!! haha

TFSA loophole. :devil:

[djayz]

Originally posted by max_boost


TFSA loophole. :devil:

Haha I didnt over contribute so I'm safe, and I've only made 10 trades in the account with an average of 15%/2. So basically I've made a 40% return on my 5k which isnt bad...now I wish I had abused it and over contributed 100k and done the same haha