Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

lots of selling with DOW above 10k

its only the beginning, just wait until some news to rattle the average investor. low volume = standing on one foot

[Dinan]

Originally posted by djayz


Haha I didnt over contribute so I'm safe, and I've only made 10 trades in the account with an average of 15%/2. So basically I've made a 40% return on my 5k which isnt bad...now I wish I had abused it and over contributed 100k and done the same haha


wow, that's really good! what stocks did you buy in that account ?

[SilverRex]

does anyone want to guess where you think dow is headed next just by looking at this megaphone up channel?

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow102109.jpg

[Dinan]

^^^^^ 9,600 lol:nut:

[djayz]

Originally posted by Dinan



wow, that's really good! what stocks did you buy in that account ?

SLW 3 times and HGU 1 time. So A total of 8 trades not even 10.
I used my regular strategy in there and it worked quite well, didn't go for any and every trade and did not get greedy, ended up getting very lucky.

So made a profit of $1900 so 38% YTD return.
Will see what else I can churn out by end of year but right now I think I'm just going to leave whats in there as it until I see an awesome opportunity.

[Meback]

Originally posted by djayz


Haha who's on to me?

I've been holding HGD for 2 weeks now and it has barely moved. Everyday gold dies down near the end of the day, next days open then starts low and heads higher and it repeats like this everyday. I know the day I try to swing trade HGU im going to get screwed as thats the day gold will tank...where the hell is this correction!!! haha

lol I am in EXACTLY the same boat!!!

[SilverRex]

ok so oil after breaking down from the 50EMA and bottom of the trend channel, I thought the run to 75 area started early , however thanks to the sudden collasp in the dollar, it pushed everything back up.

and if you just use common sense alone you would know oil by re-closing above the broken trend channel, would make a dash back to the top of the channel which was exactly at 82. now the short term correction will have to hold, oil is yet again this morning trying to take out a near by angled trend line similar to the previous 4 or 5 times, once it does it should move it to a near double top or higher. Upper trend target now lies at around 83.

we are all so close to the 85 target, we'll see if it has enough momentum left to get there. otherwise to re-instate the bearish case, first it needs to take out 79 in order to test the 77.50 support which it establish yesterday. but I will see have to wait for a clear take out under 77.50 before putting the 75 target back on the table.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102209.jpg


for gold I said near 1046 would be a good swing trade based on the heavy laiden neck line support. well it only got as close as 1047.9 I believe then it turned around again thanks to the dollar and a rising DOW. Now the pattern looks more like an asending wedge. I would swing trade between this until a clear break out on either side occurs. while most will view this as a bullish pattern at the heels of a run up. I would say it can also fail so until a break out occurs on either side of this wedge I would swing trade with a tight stop below the previous day top or bottom.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102209.jpg

while the dollar made new lows which was expected. for some reason it's getting more and more difficult with every drop, there is no clear sell off, yet again it rallied back above its broken up trend neckline , the good thing is, the larger down trend line is still forcing the dollar to turn back down. What is so good about this is I would watch this trend line. The first clue that it breaks will and more than likely signal a dollar bottom near term. until then I will look to short on all dollar rallies until this happens. However the pattern would call for once a new low in the dollar puts forth, I would exit since something or somewhere is trying to stop the dollar's bleeding every time it makes a new low by pushing price back up.

Maybe its the other way around, something or someone is trying to let the dollar drop gradually instead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102209.jpg

[SilverRex]

i must admit, while the trend for further upside looks intact, the fact the DOW has been selling off sharply everytime it grinds back above 10k has me concern. I would imagine we are at a cross road here. watch for clues for sudden selling to mount for all sectors. Cyclist has called out to 81 dollar months ago, and now just came out saying all of these things has been satisfied, a 74 dollar (we did hit 74.90 briefly) 80 dollar oil, and also the bkx index at 50 (49+)

GS chart is looking very weak at the moment. with this I dont think we got too much top side left in every sectors.

be prepare for roll over to commence shortly.

[SilverRex]

here is a live update posting for the oct 22 hearing on wamu's 4 billion deposit

http://twitter.com/WaMuUpdates

[SilverRex]

here we go moment of truth, euro ready to resume drop

[997TT]

gonna take a shot at that pos stock pgd.
5k shares ... see if this sucker has a pop back to $3.30+ in the coming 2 weeks.

edit: up 0.15 already. shit maybe i sould take my $750 and run .... pre is down. should've sold that pos at $14+

least WEE is up another 6%. These venture stocks are gonna be the end of me i'm sure.

[civic_rida]

Not looking good for wamuq

[skandalouz_08]

997 what are your thoughts on WEE? How much more of an increase are you anticipating?

[997TT]

Canaccord capital is pretty bullish on WEE and their technology ... same guys who were very bullish on BNK (of which i sold 10k shares at $2.2 and now its $5 ... FML).

As the news releases come out i've changed my mind from a pump and dump (ie take the 10%-20% and never look back) to giving this stock a bit more time and ignoring the ST volatility in hopes of possibly seeing this stock considerably higher.

As for a target I don't really know but it appears to be a company on the right track

[max_boost]

Amazon up 10% after hours already. Smoked estimates.

Alllllright. :clap:

[sputnik]

Originally posted by max_boost
Amazon up 10% after hours already. Smoked estimates.

Alllllright. :clap:

The force is strong.

[yoda124]

another 52 week closing high for the beast(TCK.b).Could it reach $40+?I see a gap at $42.50-44.36.

[RecoilS14]

http://cxa.marketwatch.com/TSX/en/Market/quote.aspx?symb=PGD&sid=2190723


Just giving you all the heads up about this little gem i stumbled on about 2 months ago. It made a nice short term gain i wish i could have capitalized on; however, the long-term possibilities on this company are quite positive. Im projecting (not that im a pro or anything) that this stock could easily hit $30 if they keep up the good work and do things properly, not to mention a large diamond deposit like it looks like.

I don't have any shares purchased as of this time, mainly due to losing my job recently. I will once i get back on my feet, as this looks, to me, like a good potential fun to help make me a house down payment in a few years.

Anyway, just for your consideration.

[SilverRex]

so after oil took out the nearby angled trend line again the over all trend remained up. depending if the dollar will break out or break down today. we will see if oil can reach a new upper channel high of 84 today. right now I expect if it breaks below 79.80 it will certainly increase chance of further drop to 78 which imo is the last support before putting 75 back on the table.

the clock is ticking, there is no other reason supporting higher oil prices other than a falling dollar.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102309.jpg

gold was expectd to be trading between this wedge, a breakout or break down will soon occur. I am actually betting to the down side.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102309.jpg


and for the dollar, lets remind everyone how we are extremely close to and end to this drawn out decline that lasted nearly 8 months. stoch is beginning to turn up (positively) and zooming in dollar will be testing a very strong near term trend line. so either we have a double bottom at 74.95 and as cyclist puts it we have satisfied our 74 target and a clear impulsive breakout to the top side will begin our journey of a strong dollar rally. or we get another knock down pushing the dollar to a new low. My bet is anywhere between 74-74.50 should be the final landing stop if we get one more dive., notice the last 5 days there has been heavy dollar buying every time it dips, it will be no different than as soon as you reach some sort of low it will rally hard once again. I smell a breakout is soon to be had within days if not hours.

my initial dollar rally target suggest once we breakout I would expect it to at least get back to the prior wave iii/iv range which is between 79-81.

This pull back is required regardless if the dollar has further weakness ahead simply because this is the nature of price movement, it must consolidate and retrace. of course the notion is if the dollar exceeds this range, then we will know deflation is back at full force.

the dow has already rallied multiple times back above 10k, but it has also sell off sharply back under. I do not see dow leasting very long above 10k especially if it hits the all important number of 10300. you can call me undyingly stupid for waiting for something that may not happen. but the chart is screaming at me a correction is due. and I just stick to this, no way i am going long at this market at this critical junture

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102309.jpg

[sputnik]

Does anyone have a new live feed for crude oil prices?

It looks like the cmegroup link has gone dead.

[tylere]

http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/dataSuite.html?template=fut&productCode=CL&strategyType=SP&assetClassURL=http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy-metals/&selected_tab=energy_tab

[The_Rural_Juror]

http://www.postchronicle.com/images/articles/balloon-boy-halloween.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

ok

so as suggested on friday while after oil broke a nearby angled trend line it tried to repeat what it did best buy shooting for a new high, it failed and fell a few dollars, but this morning it is right up against a support up trend line. we will either see oil recapture the 80.40 area which should formulate a base to push oil higher. Now the upper trend channel is at 85 my min target based on EW equation.

or failure to hold above 80.40 will result in oil attampting another sell off back towards the 200 EMA near 78. I will not suggest oil has topped unless the 200 EMA gives way.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102609.jpg

for gold, we my assumption that the breakout to the upside was false so far is holding true, and for range trading it is still in tact. however if the dollar has not bottom out. gold still has one more thurst upwards, and as this chart shows, we could very well have completed an abcde triangle pattern and ready to breakout to the upside. but until it does, range trade between the range. if gold is to breakout from this bullish pattern, it will target in the 1110 area imo. but if it fails, the immediate reaction is down to 1020 sharply. with 1006 to be tested shortly after wards. perhaps a retest of the broken neckline.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102609.jpg

and the dollar, while the double bottom just under 75 held. the sequence unfolding of late looks too corrective and not strong enough to convince any big breakout. we can only asssume the dollar's decline has not finished. there fore until the dollar can take out 76 as well as 76.7 abouts where the trend line 1 is situated. it will not confirm a dollar bottom. So I expect based on the fact it broke trend line 2 this morning, it should have a bit more momentum to the upside then a rejection to follow. we have not meet our 74 target yet, even though cyclist has said it has fulfill this requirements.

IF the dollar has bottom we need a strong up impulsive up move. so until we get one. expectation is look for dollar short around the corner.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102609.jpg

[Dinan]

wow, what just happened.?

dow was over 100 points up and now it's 40 down,,, so was oil and everything else lol... the USD just spiked...


damn, NG is dropping..... anyone still holding HND ?

[Vanish3d]

im still in HND.... my break-even is $12 LOL

[Bisklimpkit]

Still in HND, as well. Break even is somewhat better than Vanish3d though. 11.30 required to break even. Thinking I'll start putting in sell orders with stops around $0.50 below current market and just keep bumping them up. I'd settle for selling for $6 or better right about now just so I can get my money working again.

[Dinan]

damn, the markets just dropped!!! huge... 200points...


finally the canadain dollar is dropping... :) now get below 90cents... lol....

[SilverRex]

well is this finally what i have been waiting for for so many weeks?

I need the dollar to break above 76.6 to confirm we have a true bottom, but so far this dollar rise is pretty impulsive.

[SilverRex]

hmm the drop for euro still extremely bearish, gold is falling out of a bullish triangle, and oil appears to ready to head below 78.

I duno, something tells me, this may be it.

meaning, I think we might get a bit of a bounce the other way, but every bounce may be result in further selling ahead.

time to cheer for the dollar index back to 80

like I said last week, dow over 10k is unsustainable.

we had 5 cracks above 10k, each resulting in sharp sell off back below it.

looks like this is it folks.

time to stay away going long

[s_havinga]

so SR, If this is in fact the drop you have been predicting for the last month or so, how low can we expect oil and NG to drop?

[josecuzzani]

NRI Nuvo research has a drug thats getting FDA approval Nov 4th... They submitted everything and the drug is already being used in Canada... should see a big jump!
Get in , super cheap now

[ckangarloo]

^ NRI guy:
Where are you getting your info?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by josecuzzani
NRI Nuvo research has a drug thats getting FDA approval Nov 4th... They submitted everything and the drug is already being used in Canada... should see a big jump!
Get in , super cheap now

yeah i was looking at that too.. why did it drop to 14cents today though ?

[SilverRex]

.

[SilverRex]

so it was a pretty sharp sell off in the euro, however the dollar really didnt rise that much, but none the less every market sold off accordingly.

oil's last defense was the 200 EMA near 78, while this is holding it up, unless oil can climb back above 81 I would begin to use any rise as a chance to short oil yes. of course this would have to mean the dollar has bottom and I sure hope so. My expecation is a rise than fall pattern unless of course it takes out 78 again, then this would be weaker than what I expect.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102709.jpg

gold's triangle failure wasnt really a surprise either, if the talk of gold town is so bullish, gold would have been at 1300 by now after taking out 1033 but it didnt. still struggling, what gives? well, it may still be the fact that gold is in a correction, meaning, we need a substiantial fall before rise. but just looking at the breakdown below 1050, it appears the neckline supports the idea that a H&S target of 1025 is in the works., again with stoch very over sold, hopefully it will catch a breath then resume sell off.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102709.jpg


looking at the dollar, yes it rose, but not to what I wish for, still under a few critical areas. It would be a nail in the coffin if it can get above 76.6 until then, it may continue to fight, stoch is extremely over bought, expecting a bit of a drop then a new drive higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102709.jpg

[997TT]

stocks are all over the place at open....seeing pretty good swings

least WEE bounced back .... was getting worried there for a sec.
Good ole news release saves the day.

[davidI]

C'mon oil...sink sink sink!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
stocks are all over the place at open....seeing pretty good swings

least WEE bounced back .... was getting worried there for a sec.
Good ole news release saves the day.

wow!!! :eek: :bigpimp:

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan


wow!!! :eek: :bigpimp:

2.65 and counting ... run mfkr run.

edit: 2.84 now. BAM

[ExtraSlow]

Well, I'm into HNU now at 13.50.
I've already set my sell order at 15.55, which is pretty conservative if it does start climbing again.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
Well, I'm into HNU now at 13.50.
I've already set my sell order at 15.55, which is pretty conservative if it does start climbing again.

Nobody learns from us... Anyway just make sure you got firm stops in place or it can bit you in the ass fast,

[almerick]

Bought ING at 17.78 a few days ago, it is now at 13.28, FML

[cosmok]

WAMUQ taking a beating again today

[ExtraSlow]

Yeah, I do know the dangers of the BetaPoo etfs. I can 100% afford to lose this money. I'm gambling.
Somewhere a couple hundred pages back, I was one of the guys talking about HOU.

I think NG is a better value proposition right now. Not that these etfs are solidly connected to fundamentals.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I think NG is a better value proposition right now. Not that these etfs are solidly connected to fundamentals.

Last week of injection (upto the 31st of October) and with that prices trend down; especially with no production cut backs.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/3/35/UndergroundGasStorage_9.JPG/500px-UndergroundGasStorage_9.JPG

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by 997TT


2.65 and counting ... run mfkr run.

edit: 2.84 now. BAM

Its looking good, I got in at 2.35 the other day. Happy I did now just have to decide when I want to get out.

[997TT]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08


Its looking good, I got in at 2.35 the other day. Happy I did now just have to decide when I want to get out.

good stuff. It took a beat down at open ... but rebounded.

my buddy who bought in has sold out for $1 gain.
I'm still holding though and struggling with the same question. Sell now and rebuy or just hold.

$2.86 currently. Up 25%

Picked up WZR at $1.59 this morning. waiting on drill results in coming weeks.

[KleanCord]

Originally posted by 997TT


good stuff. It took a beat down at open ... but rebounded.

my buddy who bought in has sold out for $1 gain.
I'm still holding though and struggling with the same question. Sell now and rebuy or just hold.

$2.86 currently. Up 25%

Picked up WZR at $1.59 this morning. waiting on drill results in coming weeks.

I would fully recommend to sell WZR. I don't often give advice but I have a feeling the drilling results did not go so well as someone knew something on September 14th. Since then the trend has been down.

Mind you maybe the news has already been factored in but you can bet if they screw up their second well then that leaves either a highly dilutive secondary offering or lights out.

I believe that the price moves long before the news, especially in these sorts of stocks where the news is only released to pump upthe price for the people who already own the shares (the insiders).

[997TT]

Originally posted by KleanCord


I would fully recommend to sell WZR. I don't often give advice but I have a feeling the drilling results did not go so well as someone knew something on September 14th. Since then the trend has been down.

Mind you maybe the news has already been factored in but you can bet if they screw up their second well then that leaves either a highly dilutive secondary offering or lights out.

I believe that the price moves long before the news, especially in these sorts of stocks where the news is only released to pump upthe price for the people who already own the shares (the insiders).

thanks for the tip... might either take you up on your advice or set a stop.

any of you guys follow the REE stocks like AVL/QUC/RES?
been getting pummelled lately.

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by 997TT


good stuff. It took a beat down at open ... but rebounded.

my buddy who bought in has sold out for $1 gain.
I'm still holding though and struggling with the same question. Sell now and rebuy or just hold.

$2.86 currently. Up 25%

Picked up WZR at $1.59 this morning. waiting on drill results in coming weeks.

I had a sell order set at 2.90 which just got filled. Wish I would've set it higher, but a gain is a gain and MUCH better than the losses we've both taken on HNU/HND lol

[997TT]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08


I had a sell order set at 2.90 which just got filled. Wish I would've set it higher, but a gain is a gain and MUCH better than the losses we've both taken on HNU/HND lol

$3.04 just bagged a 50%

sweet.

Now where do i sell half at let the rest ride? or just hold like the idiot that i am and watch it come tumbling back.

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by 997TT


$3.04 just bagged a 50%

sweet.

Now where do i sell half at let the rest ride? or just hold like the idiot that i am and watch it come tumbling back.

Did you sell? Its now back to 2.74...

[997TT]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08


Did you sell? Its now back to 2.74...

sold half at 2.85

holding the rest for now.

any pull back i will add to my position. HOping for 2.40 or less (2.20 would be ideal) but who knows ....

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by 997TT


sold half at 2.85

holding the rest for now.

any pull back i will add to my position. HOping for 2.40 or less (2.20 would be ideal) but who knows ....

A pullback to anything below 2.40 and I'll rebuy into it too. Guess we'll wait and see if that happens.

[Meback]

man, I can't seem to catch a break, putting my money into the wrong things, and letting emotions get in the way in deciding to sell or hold.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Dinan]

what news came out for WEE ?? i don't see any ... for the pop today

[Dinan]

anyone buying PRE ??? what price did u get in at 997TT ?

[josecuzzani]

Originally posted by ckangarloo
^ NRI guy:
Where are you getting your info?

A time line for its drug Pennsaid is the best way to understand how big of an opportunity biotechnology investors have here.
First, an introduction of Nuvo's lead drug, from Nuvo Research's 09Q1 Report:
The Company’s lead product, Pennsaid, is used to treat the pain and symptoms associated with knee osteoarthritis (“OA”) a condition that afflicts 27 million Americans.
The drug combines the transdermal carrier DMSO with diclofenac sodium, a leading non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (“NSAID”), and delivers the active drug through the skin directly to the site of pain. Pennsaid is approved for sale and marketed under license and distribution agreements in Canada and several European countries.

In August of 2002, when Nuvo Research went by the name of Dimethaid, the FDA issued a non-approvable letter to them stating clinical efficiency and safety were major concerns. The FDA wanted 2 more clinical trials completed.

Between that time and 2006, they had submitted another application to the FDA for Pennsaid. They had also switched their name to Nuvo Research in this time period.

"In December 2006, the United States (“U.S.”) Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) issued an approvable letter (“Approvable Letter”) that indicated Pennsaid is approvable subject to Nuvo satisfying certain conditions including the provision of additional nonclinical dermal safety and packaging data. None of the conditions in the Approvable Letter related to the clinical efficacy or the clinical safety of Pennsaid, which were evidenced in Nuvo’s Phase 3 trials."

That statement is the one statement that I believe will make investors of Nuvo a lot of money. It specifically states that the clinical efficacy or safety, previously a problem, are no longer a problem.

“During 2007, the Company engaged in communications with the FDA to clarify the Agency’s expectations regarding certain of its requirements in the Approvable Letter for additional information relating to Pennsaid. Based on the contents of the Approvable Letter and these clarifications, the Company completed several short-term studies (the “Short-Term Studies”). In addition, the Company concluded it must complete three (3) longer-term animal studies (the “Long-Term Studies”) to confirm the dermal and systemic safety of Pennsaid. The three Long-Term Studies are as follows:

• a six (6) month repeat dose dermal toxicity study (the “Six-Month Tox Study”);
• a twelve (12) month repeat dose dermal toxicity study (the “Twelve-Month Tox Study”); and,
• a two (2) year dermal carcinogenicity study (the “Carc Study”) preceded by a
dose finding trial (the “Carc Dosing Trial”).

The FDA confirmed in written minutes of a telephone meeting with the Company, that the Carc Study can be completed post approval, provided no safety concerns are identified in the Six-Month Tox Study or the Twelve-Month Tox Study (together the “Tox Studies”). The Company completed the Tox Studies and based upon its interpretation of the data believes there are no safety concerns such that, as per the Company’s agreement with the FDA, the Carc Study may be completed post approval.”

More studies were completed and if you refer to the FDA's most recent reason for denial (dermal safety), then you can see that Nuvo's studies were a direct response to them- 3 dermal-related studies.

February 4, 2009 - “the Company filed a complete response amendment to address all of the FDA’s concerns raised in the Approvable Letter and subsequently, the FDA set August 5, 2009 as the date pursuant to the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (the “PDUFA Date”) by which they will advise Nuvo of their decision regarding Pennsaid’s approvability; however, there is no guarantee that the FDA will complete its review in this timeframe. If approved by the FDA, Pennsaid will be permitted to be sold and marketed in the U.S. However, there can be no assurance, if or when, the FDA will approve the sale or marketing of Pennsaid in the U.S.”

A day before the 8/5/09 PDUFA date:
“During the review process, Nuvo provided the FDA with supplemental information, which the Agency determined to be a major amendment to the Pennsaid New Drug Application. As a result, the FDA has extended its action date by three months to provide time for a full review of the submission”
The new FDA date is now November 4th, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------

On June 16th, 2009, Nuvo announced a license agreement with Covidien.

“Nuvo said it will receive $10 million up front from Covidien and $15 million or $20 million for FDA approval of Pennsaid, depending on the drug's labeling.”
More info on Nuvo's other product, Pennsaid Plus, will be coming soon.
Disclosure: Long Nuvo Research Inc. (TSE:NRI)

[josecuzzani]

Originally posted by ckangarloo
^ NRI guy:
Where are you getting your info?

A time line for its drug Pennsaid is the best way to understand how big of an opportunity biotechnology investors have here.
First, an introduction of Nuvo's lead drug, from Nuvo Research's 09Q1 Report:
The Company’s lead product, Pennsaid, is used to treat the pain and symptoms associated with knee osteoarthritis (“OA”) a condition that afflicts 27 million Americans.
The drug combines the transdermal carrier DMSO with diclofenac sodium, a leading non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (“NSAID”), and delivers the active drug through the skin directly to the site of pain. Pennsaid is approved for sale and marketed under license and distribution agreements in Canada and several European countries.

In August of 2002, when Nuvo Research went by the name of Dimethaid, the FDA issued a non-approvable letter to them stating clinical efficiency and safety were major concerns. The FDA wanted 2 more clinical trials completed.

Between that time and 2006, they had submitted another application to the FDA for Pennsaid. They had also switched their name to Nuvo Research in this time period.

"In December 2006, the United States (“U.S.”) Food and Drug Administration (“FDA”) issued an approvable letter (“Approvable Letter”) that indicated Pennsaid is approvable subject to Nuvo satisfying certain conditions including the provision of additional nonclinical dermal safety and packaging data. None of the conditions in the Approvable Letter related to the clinical efficacy or the clinical safety of Pennsaid, which were evidenced in Nuvo’s Phase 3 trials."

That statement is the one statement that I believe will make investors of Nuvo a lot of money. It specifically states that the clinical efficacy or safety, previously a problem, are no longer a problem.

“During 2007, the Company engaged in communications with the FDA to clarify the Agency’s expectations regarding certain of its requirements in the Approvable Letter for additional information relating to Pennsaid. Based on the contents of the Approvable Letter and these clarifications, the Company completed several short-term studies (the “Short-Term Studies”). In addition, the Company concluded it must complete three (3) longer-term animal studies (the “Long-Term Studies”) to confirm the dermal and systemic safety of Pennsaid. The three Long-Term Studies are as follows:

• a six (6) month repeat dose dermal toxicity study (the “Six-Month Tox Study”);
• a twelve (12) month repeat dose dermal toxicity study (the “Twelve-Month Tox Study”); and,
• a two (2) year dermal carcinogenicity study (the “Carc Study”) preceded by a
dose finding trial (the “Carc Dosing Trial”).

The FDA confirmed in written minutes of a telephone meeting with the Company, that the Carc Study can be completed post approval, provided no safety concerns are identified in the Six-Month Tox Study or the Twelve-Month Tox Study (together the “Tox Studies”). The Company completed the Tox Studies and based upon its interpretation of the data believes there are no safety concerns such that, as per the Company’s agreement with the FDA, the Carc Study may be completed post approval.”

More studies were completed and if you refer to the FDA's most recent reason for denial (dermal safety), then you can see that Nuvo's studies were a direct response to them- 3 dermal-related studies.

February 4, 2009 - “the Company filed a complete response amendment to address all of the FDA’s concerns raised in the Approvable Letter and subsequently, the FDA set August 5, 2009 as the date pursuant to the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (the “PDUFA Date”) by which they will advise Nuvo of their decision regarding Pennsaid’s approvability; however, there is no guarantee that the FDA will complete its review in this timeframe. If approved by the FDA, Pennsaid will be permitted to be sold and marketed in the U.S. However, there can be no assurance, if or when, the FDA will approve the sale or marketing of Pennsaid in the U.S.”

A day before the 8/5/09 PDUFA date:
“During the review process, Nuvo provided the FDA with supplemental information, which the Agency determined to be a major amendment to the Pennsaid New Drug Application. As a result, the FDA has extended its action date by three months to provide time for a full review of the submission”
The new FDA date is now November 4th, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------

On June 16th, 2009, Nuvo announced a license agreement with Covidien.

“Nuvo said it will receive $10 million up front from Covidien and $15 million or $20 million for FDA approval of Pennsaid, depending on the drug's labeling.”
More info on Nuvo's other product, Pennsaid Plus, will be coming soon.
Disclosure: Long Nuvo Research Inc. (TSE:NRI)

[DRKM]

^ Pump and dump bot?

[ckangarloo]

ya, that is kind of what I'm thinking. This stock is getting tons of volume without any significant price movement.

[SilverRex]

ok so the dollar continue to rise but we sort of got the semi rally that I was expecting, it wasnt all that power ful and for oil it took it back near 80 and now we are back under. while it is still possible it can push slightly higher, my current views favor that oil is a short on rallies. will expect oil to move to 75 area once it takes out 77.50 and if your shorting keep your stops above 81. I will only consider this path invalidated if oil suddenly over comes above 81

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102809.jpg

and looking at gold, similarily, it didnt offer the type of pull back I was hoping (retestinng the broken neckline (red) and because of it, for all I know we could see see that happen, so keep that in mind as 1050+ would act as a heavy resistance, I'm still targeting gold to touch at least 1020-1025 area with 1006 to be on the radar

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102809.jpg

and finally the dollar, its slowly making the type a up move that will soon mean more than just a head fake. we are very near a critical resistance at around 76.6, my expecation is that, there should be quite the selling around this area as the whole world only believes in weak dollar right now. so if we get there, we should see heavy selling but the moment of truth will come when we see it suddenly break above this which imo will confirm 74.9 as the bottom.

From a technical world this would be pretty big and should shock enough technical traders to abandon near term dollar shorts and so I would expect a sharp climb back to the 80 area in due time.

one can only wonder how this will impact all other markets. Remember oil's rise these days are mainly due to weak dollar not because of fundamentals.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102809.jpg

[Bisklimpkit]

Is gold soft enough to try to swing a trade right now, as in buy some HGD now and sell it once gold drops to the 1025 or lower range?

[SilverRex]

well the idea is to look for opporunity to short gold when it rallies, as it is breaking low right now, im not sure if the risk/reward is on your side even though I expect it to hit 1025.

edit: so far so good, dollar just doesnt want to fall lol

hopefully this really is it

HND back to 6 dollar, not to shabby coming off 4.4 low, my expecation is back to 7-8 dollars at a min

hopefully thats good news for whoever still has natgas short under their pants.

I tell you those dollar gap contago is whats keeping NG short from jumping off the cliff

oil just broke the 77.50 support. its pretty important moment for bears. further weakness ahead

[Dinan]

well this was well over due, now lets see how low can it go!


SR, you think oil will have good support at 75??

[SilverRex]

^

I think there will be buying at 75

but if the dollar rally is real, then 75 wont hold out too long.

remember, things always fall much faster than going up. what took months to build could sell off quickly in days.

looks like euro is again making new lows

[SilverRex]

looks like we got a little bit left to go to test the all importantneckline (in red) about 9600

probablly there will be buying there, but its only a matter of time until this cracks, this widening megaphone pattern is typically terminal. the fun will begin once this neckline gives away.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow102809.jpg

[Neil4Speed]

Wow oil index took a beating today!

[davidI]

Well, I'm certainly happy I've been out of all positions except for HOD & RIM these last couple off weeks.

My gains on HOD have off-set my losses on RIM. One has to wonder how far things are going to fall...I think the reports due out today could really push things one way or the other!

[SilverRex]

ok so we've had some weakness other than oil didnt quite sell off to 75 which I was expecting, the dollar has already made a move to its critical resistance 76.57 (remember to confirm dollar breakout we need it go punch thru 76.6-76.7) funny how it stopped at that and turned around.

and so oil is in a bit of a retracement. watch for resistance between 80-81 to hold. would be a good shorting opportunity on rallies.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102909.jpg

and for gold, we pretty much got our 1025 expecation, gold also in a bit of a pull back, with a descending widening wedge, I would see gold pull back a bit further, but I will view anything close to or above 1050 to resume selling pressure

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102909.jpg

finally the dollar, after it took out a sharper down trend line earlier in the week, I fully expected it to test the 76.6, we got right to 76.57 pretty magical number. my expecation wise it will not pass on 1st attampt, this same down trend line has been the much of the driving force in the last few months pushing dollar lower and lower. so to confirm, I expect once we finish a bit of a pull back here, it should find a way to thurst above it. there fore keep your tight stops, there will be alot more gains down the road once dollar confirms this move to the up side

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102909.jpg

[997TT]

happy to see the market bounce back after yesterday ass kicking.

Cmon Wee hurry up and put out another news release...haha

skandalouz_08 did you rebuy WEE?

[DRKM]

Damn I just into hod yesterday morning... Real rally? Vix fell back to 25...

Anyone looking at the volume today? Crude is crazy low...
Looking over volume is low everywhere. Strange.

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by 997TT
happy to see the market bounce back after yesterday ass kicking.

Cmon Wee hurry up and put out another news release...haha

skandalouz_08 did you rebuy WEE?

I haven't yet, but I've been thinking about it. 2.60 seems like a good place to get in as it doesn't want to get below that.

[Bisklimpkit]

What exchange is WEE on? I can't seem to get my trading service to find it (I use QuesTrade).

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Bisklimpkit
What exchange is WEE on? I can't seem to get my trading service to find it (I use QuesTrade).

wee.V


pre is having a nice bounce... everything seems to be having a nice bounce... even oil is over 80$ again :nut:

[Bisklimpkit]

QuestTrade won't recognize wee.v. I wonder if my account can only trade certain exchanges or something like that? I may give them a call.

[skandalouz_08]

Its on the venture exchange so if you can't find wee.v then you probably don't have access to the venture with quest.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[997TT]

WEE is on the move again ... $2.94.... fk i should've rebought my half I sold.

[skandalouz_08]

oh I know, I didn't think it would jump this late in the day so I was gonna wait for tomorrow and now I missed my chance...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so HOD a good idea rihgt now?
oil over $80 slihgtly

ill say anything at or above 80 oil is a good short

I believe the dollar HAS bottomed and for the next little while we would see a steady rise, this will bring the market down

[SilverRex]

while i would have posted this tomorrow morning, lets get this dollar chart over with.

I'm more and more confident that we have completed a sub wave 5 of V hence a dollar bottom is in (imo)

what we saw today is simply the dollar being rejected at 76.6 )76.57 to be exact) and that was within my expecation, now this pull back is where it will trap market bulls, I expect the dollar to find a support some where between 75.5-75.70, as stoch is again over sold.

once dollar breaks above 76.6 the world will soon find out the other ugly side of deflation for the next few month if not weeks at the last.

initial target is back to 80-81, which imo will be enough to put a big dent 25% off the Dow. and if the dollar exceeds above this, then that only means deflation is back in full force.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarbottom.jpg

[cosmok]

^^WAMUQ had a nice bounce today for you as well

[SilverRex]

ok so as I've posted ahead yesterday, I believe dollar HAS bottomed and so we look for clues for the next advance.

I completely expected the market to give a head fake and we got that, now looking at oil we still under 80 this morning. my expectation is as long as 80 holds, we should see oil test the bottom neckline in red, the next time it breaks below 77 should initiate a sell off to 75 which I expect there will be buying but wont last long.

the only thing about oil that may bother me is that it hasnt dropped as much as I Would like to see comparing to say gold or euro. oil never got to the 85 target I suggested and so you just never know if oil isnt finish until it does so.

but I wont entertain that idea unless it can stay above 80, other wise expect further weakness ahead as the dollar resume its rise

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil103009.jpg

for gold as I suggest the widening wedge it was obvious breakout was to the upside, we got our upside move and now I expect gold to begin a sub wave iii of I to newer lows with next target down to 1006. if 1050 was the last sub wave I bottom, gold shouldnt exceed this or it would put my EW count in question.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold103009.jpg

so far the dollar is hugging a previous broken trend line and near a support. the 200 EMA on this chart isnt far off near 75.7, stoch is over sold and ready to turn back up, I believe the rise from 74.9 to 76.57 was a wave I pattern, and so we are in a ABC correction. once finished, we should see a greater advance that will take us back above 77. why 77+ because the rise of 74.9-76.57 is about 1.67 and wave iii should exceed this amount if the correction bottom is at the current 75.85 that will bring us to at least 77.47.

again im expecting the dollar to find a solid bottom between 75.5-75.80

again it would put my dollar bottom in question if it takes out 75.5 to the down side but right now I dont think that will would happen.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar103009.jpg

[DRKM]

Whats up with ng? A report come out about the ice age?

[davidI]

Haha. Holy am I getting killed on RIM. Guess I'll have to bite the bullet soon and either take a $1k loss or look at it as a long-term hold. Wasn't a well-thought-out purchase, that's for sure.

I hope the market and oil just sink, sink, sink!

[997TT]

ya, i bought into Rim the day of the Q3 release.

Sold the following day right at open around $77 for a $13 kick in the balls.

but am happy i didn't hold.... watching BNN the dude from blackmont said he'd wait to buy RIM ... that its a great candidate for tax loss selling near the end of this year. So sometime in Dec try nibbling away at it as people sell it ....

[Mark_Nguyen]

Originally posted by 997TT
ya, i bought into Rim the day of the Q3 release.

Sold the following day right at open around $77 for a $13 kick in the balls.

but am happy i didn't hold.... watching BNN the dude from blackmont said he'd wait to buy RIM ... that its a great candidate for tax loss selling near the end of this year. So sometime in Dec try nibbling away at it as people sell it ....

Seasonally tax loss selling happens in September and October for institutional traders

[997TT]

^ i'm assuming he meant the average investor who looks at his personal portolio come year end and looks at ways of realizing a cap loss to offset cap gains ....that clearly is not me since cap gains is foreign terminology.

I still have Rim shares with my broker ... just none in my daytrading account.

For all i know my broker might recommend we sell RIM and rebuy it immediately since he is up quite a bit YTD.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[997TT]

just picked up hgu at 10.68

[cosmok]

Originally posted by DRKM
Whats up with ng? A report come out about the ice age?
What a turn around :nut:

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
just picked up hgu at 10.68


i was just about to say, if anyone is looking into HGU lol....


all the gains and then some are gone from yesterday! :eek:


USD is on fire!!!!


now, is this it, the pull back or what ??

[Bisklimpkit]

Based on what SR said, wouldn't you want to shy away from HGU until gold has dropped at least another $10, possibly another $30? I was close to buying some HGD this morning but decided I'd wait until I could see a clearer trend with gold.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Bisklimpkit
Based on what SR said, wouldn't you want to shy away from HGU until gold has dropped at least another $10, possibly another $30? I was close to buying some HGD this morning but decided I'd wait until I could see a clearer trend with gold.

cause i personally think the trend is still buy on dips :dunno:

[Bisklimpkit]

LOL...and I'm thinking the trend is to short on highs. Though I went against that yesterday with a junior gold mining company and made a little (bought at 9am and sold 2 hours later), so I guess I don't really know what I think.

[Criticull]

Originally posted by davidI
Haha. Holy am I getting killed on RIM. Guess I'll have to bite the bullet soon and either take a $1k loss or look at it as a long-term hold. Wasn't a well-thought-out purchase, that's for sure.

I hope the market and oil just sink, sink, sink!

I am happy I sold my RIM at 68.22, and only lost 500. Luckily everything else I have has made some money. Rogers is kicking ass.

I don't think the market is seeing RIM in the right light, as it's earnings are growing, and despite having a shittier consumer segment than apple, it owns the enterprise segment, the smartphone market as a whole is growing, and earnings should follow to some extent. Don't know if it's worth $100, but given the right catalysts it could get there with irrational exuberance lol.