Official Short-term Investments Thread

[max_boost]

All I know is, this sucks.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by max_boost
All I know is, this sucks.

what have you been trading?? still xiu ??

[997TT]

up $.50 on HGU already ... mabye i should take my money ... nah i'll wait till it hits $12-$13

WEE...glad i sold half. But should've sold all and rebought. POS

[SilverRex]

we're about to close the monthly chart on silver with a very clear reverse red hammer. if you look back the last few peaks, every time there is a reversal pattern, it results in further weakness.

There fore I will say it will line up with cyclist's low in 3rd week (for now) that november will bring both gold and silver down further.

this will only mean that the dollar has more room (upwards to go)

stay tuned.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver103009-1.jpg

[Dinan]

HGU had a nice run, too bad didn't buy in :(

[max_boost]

AM I READING THAT RIGHT? DOW FUTURES -240PTS RIGHT NOW?

FML.

SilverRex, I should have listened to you about wave 3 or whatever it was!

:cry:

I can wait it out obviously but no one likes watching their portfolios go down in value!

:cry:

[DRKM]

Overseas markets very strange this morning. Commodities getting pushed up after large losses in Asian markets.
Euro markets reativly flat but commodies are getting pushed up quite a bit.

With CIT going bankrupt I wonder what monday will bring...

[SilverRex]

ok so as I have said last week I Believe the bottom in the dollar should initiate further losses across most sectors.

however let see if we finally get some trend unfolding. I'm quite tired with the flat corrections and consolidation these days.

if things played out exactly, I would expect oil to resume dropping and looking at the chart, it isnt has easy to read as say the dollar or even gold, yes we got our drop last week but they are merely retesting last week's low and so far price refuses to collaspe.

but we did manage to hold under the 200 EMA, 50EMA had the death cross, and if the dollar is to resume upward this week, right now I can only expect oil to have a limited upside then finally take out 77 onto 75. initial target I'll suggest testing the 73 support more than likely.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil110209.jpg


and for gold, it interesting put in a bit of a late day rally last friday, and so far has manage to defy much weakness by pushing above 1050. but in this drop since 1070, so far gold's recent rally appears corrective. It could also be looking for a corrective top in a C of an ABC correction. It tested the previous broken neckline and with stoch again back to over bought. my expecation is one small drive higher, then its down she goes.

yes the one thing I have to consider is the nature of gold's role in the market place. if it again rises along side with the dollar, who knows what it can bring. but technically I'd just have to stick to my view that the entire run off 681 in the technical world looks very corrective. So I have to continue to expect a large drop from gold before it can climb to extreme hights.

pay close attention to gold, if it can re-enter above the broken neckline and stay above it, then you must wait and see what it does (that is if gold hasnt put in a top) but based on silver's weekly close last week, I have doubts with any rally coming in this week.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold110209.jpg

now the dollar has made a nice correction then attampted to breakout from a monthly long down trend line holding the line just under 76.6, however stoch is nearly oversold and this week we will see if we finally get the confirmation signal that I've been waiting for all this time. my expecation is we will see this line finally get taken out to the top side and onto a sub wave iii of I which should be quite strong taking us back aboe 77.5, the only thing stopping this if the alt count in brown takes place that we have a bit of a larger correction making one more sell off lower to complete an ABC correction. I completely welcome this as well and if this happens, I would take that as an opportunity to get into position (long dollar that is)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110209.jpg

[SilverRex]

for HND holders if there are anyone out there still holding.

with the dollar bottomed I expect oil to begin further sell off in coming days/weeks. This will mean NG will go no where. initial target I am expecting HND to at least go back to the range of 7-8 dollars.

the only thing to watch is there appears to be gap that needs to be filled in the low 5s. A possible scenario where price would find a way there before making a good run in the coming weeks.

[997TT]

gold up $10...was $16 when i left the house.

c'mon HGU give me another 0.50-$1 and i'm out.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
gold up $10...was $16 when i left the house.

c'mon HGU give me another 0.50-$1 and i'm out.

playing with fire :) gold can surprise anyone but HGU is tied more to the marketplace and if the market has gone into a sell on rallies I'll actually do the opposite and pick up HGD every time it drops

[s_havinga]

$7-8 HND Sounds good to me! so does $73 Oil... it's a strange feeling to be hoping the market crashes. haha

[997TT]

Originally posted by SilverRex


playing with fire :) gold can surprise anyone but HGU is tied more to the marketplace and if the market has gone into a sell on rallies I'll actually do the opposite and pick up HGD every time it drops

HGU off 0.30 from its open... wonder if i should just take my 0.70

RIM at $60. Crazy

edit: HGU moving finally ... up $1.15 from my purchase on Fri.
cmon ...lots of losses to make up. :banghead:

[cosmok]

USD fell off a little cliff there, hopefully that's it for downside

[997TT]

sold HGU for a nice little gain...nice start to the week.

In HZD at $12.80 ... stop at $12.30 or $17ish silver.

[SilverRex]

definately have your stops in place.

while the trend will be clearly down, if US keeps pumping up these positive data, the market will keep pushing back up.

dont forget it has been long in my view for oil to at least hit 85, or gold at 1100 area.

now that hold is right back at a make or break area, cant rule out a possibillity for the market to push one more gasp higher top out then collasp.

a double top for dow?

havent got my confirmation in the dollar index quite yet. but no fear, I thnik weeks from now it will all pay off

[SilverRex]

ok

let zoom down to a 15 min chart, gold has gone as far as it needs to (if this is it)

we had two 5 wave pattern completing an ABC correction that is counter trend. of course if gold breaks higher above 1062 then caution is advised.

but if the count is correct and this whole rally off 1025s to 1060 is corrective. then we should begin to see a sell off back to 1050 area.

but confirmation that this move up is indeed corrective, we need gold to break below 1046 about. taking this out should resume gold's bearish outlook quickly. with next target into the 1006 area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldcorrection.jpg

[SilverRex]

here is an interesting comparo with the 1929 crash as well as 1987 to 2009

http://slopeofhope.typepad.com/.a/6a00e00989822288330120a5e54fa7970b-800wi

[Dinan]

damn, the DOW is selling off.... even with the good economic data this morning....

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
damn, the DOW is selling off.... even with the good economic data this morning....

welp its right back down to the uptrend line, any break lower would target the 9400s

[997TT]

up another $0.40 on HZD ... 13.20 x 13.25.

SR would you sell?

few sites say silver is bearish....few sites say silver is bullish.

fawk ... what to do?

i guess i could move my stop to break even ...12.80 and let it ride

[SilverRex]

^

I'll move your stop to zero and let it ride

the dollar is RIGHT up against the down trend line, DOW is on the verge of breaking down below a very important neckline.

if all plays well, you would see silver drive down significantly

remember last week I said silver had formed a weekly bearish candlestick, and I expect further weakness for month of november for silver. silver should be looking good to test the 15s area

[997TT]

Originally posted by SilverRex
^

I'll move your stop to zero and let it ride

the dollar is RIGHT up against the down trend line, DOW is on the verge of breaking down below a very important neckline.

if all plays well, you would see silver drive down significantly

remember last week I said silver had formed a weekly bearish candlestick, and I expect further weakness for month of november for silver. silver should be looking good to test the 15s area

^ Done.

13.30 now ... moved my stop up to $12.80.

man i hate making money ... i was on the verge of quitting and then WEE/HGU/HZD had to get me addicted again.

lol

[SilverRex]

ok dollar is ready to breakout, SAR back on bottom.

come on, let me be right one more time

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarbreakout.jpg

[cosmok]

Crude just doesn't want to drop

[Red@8]

^ I just picked up some hod :D

Tight stop though.



Is anyone else having trouble getting the NYMEX data real time oil site to work?

[cosmok]

The CME page? Mine's working fine

[Red@8]

http://nymexdatardc.cme.com/

^ thats the address I am using. I cant get it to work!?!?!

[cosmok]

http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/datasuite-server/dataSuite.html?template=fut&productCode=CL&assetClassURL=http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy-metals/&header=new

[Red@8]

Thanks cosmok that works perfect.

[DRKM]

Hmmm... I got an HOU signal for tommarow.

[CSMRX7]

Anyone else playing the CIT BK?

[Dinan]

Originally posted by CSMRX7
Anyone else playing the CIT BK?

how? you shorted ?

[CSMRX7]

Originally posted by Dinan


how? you shorted ?

P-shares and bonds.

I shorted the common as well but am out as of last friday on the common.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by CSMRX7


P-shares and bonds.

I shorted the common as well but am out as of last friday on the common.

why didn't you wait for the BK.. today?? could have made a killing

[CSMRX7]

Originally posted by Dinan


why didn't you wait for the BK.. today?? could have made a killing

There was substantiated rumors that it would be frozen today. Didn't think the risk was worth it.

Looks like it will just get moved to OTC though but expect CIT common to disappear completely in the next 2 months.

[SilverRex]

ok folks, things is starting to look interesting.

lets look at oil, it appears something is holding oil up from crashing but technically because its still under the 200 EMA I can only expect the next major move is to the down side. but caution is advised. I would have stops just above 80 to ensure it does not pull anyone's leg out of surprise. and if 80.5 gives away I would sit and watch the 82 level and see what happen first. otherwise I'll short any rally for target next down to 73-75

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil110309.jpg


the thing that is interesting is that dollar finally broke out to confirm a bottom, but yet gold remained up. if you compare the movement in the last few days, gold appears (starting) to follow the dollar. in sync, I am not sure what to say. obviously that is great for gold bulls, but its defying technicality. So this morning I can only say watch the 1065 area closely. I'll have stops just above this, a break above this would trigger another rally possibly taking out 1070 and onto 1100 area. But if it does not I'm going to try and hold onto my bearish view that it would collasp. Gold is on caution and I would say its neutral right now unless it can take out 1046.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold110309.jpg

and finally the dollar, been waiting for a break out like this for much of the last few months. With this breakout imo I would comfortably say the bottom at 74.90 appears to be in. And now I expect because of overbought conditions for the dollar to retrace a bit then take off. Perhaps retesting the breakout trend line. Now if you can see thre appears to be a triangle pattern breakout. my thoughts are would this be a wave iv consolidation correction instead. because if it is, then the dollar had just put in a sub wave V top and price can easily head back to low 76. However if my original count was more correct and we've already had a 5 wave structure upwards, then this recent breakout would be a sub wave iii of I which suppose to be powerful. In such then I expect price should not break below 76.40

With this breakout, now the break or break for dollar has risen from 75.5 to about 75.8 meaning if 75.8 support gives away it will force a recount and question the 74.90 bottom. so I hope that wont happen.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110309.jpg

[Dinan]

how far do you see the dollar going ???

and how low do you think this pullback will go ? you think it's a double dip ?


off topic... what you like more EMA or SMA ?? thanks

[997TT]

back in hgu at 11.21.

just cant stay away from these damn etf's

sold hzd for a decent gain....nothing special but every little bit helps

[Dinan]

damn!!!!! lok at HGU.... nice move !

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
back in hgu at 11.21.

just cant stay away from these damn etf's

sold hzd for a decent gain....nothing special but every little bit helps

nice, that's over a $ gain :)


did you make your money back from NG lol

[cosmok]

Short on rallies!

[SilverRex]

looks like DOW is ready to crack

falling below 9700, targets 9400s

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan


nice, that's over a $ gain :)


did you make your money back from NG lol

lol ... dinan, thats like a 3-5 year plan if all goes well.

lol....actually past 2 days i'm up $5k on HGU/HZD
just need a lot more of these ... :banghead:

[djayz]

So what's the verdict on gold, still bearish with a minor bullish trend today or are we seeing a new rally for gold that will take it over the 1080 mark now?

[DRKM]

Originally posted by SilverRex
looks like DOW is ready to crack

falling below 9700, targets 9400s

Wow recent correlations are going to the shit. Euro tanking-Oil going up?

Gold ralleying?

WTF?

[cosmok]

Originally posted by djayz
So what's the verdict on gold, still bearish with a minor bullish trend today or are we seeing a new rally for gold that will take it over the 1080 mark now?

Looks like it's decoupling from the USD

[djayz]

gold broke above 1080 now its going up quick already making a break towards 1085...I just bought a huge chunk of HGD as I think this rally will not be sustainable for gold.

[997TT]

run mfkr run ... HUI is on fire.

[djayz]

Gold swept to a record high above $1,080 (U.S.) per ounce on Tuesday, defying U.S. dollar strength as the International Monetary Fund's 200 tonne sale of gold to India's central bank boosted sentiment toward the metal.

That explains it, they sold 200 tonnes for 6.7 billion!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


lol ... dinan, thats like a 3-5 year plan if all goes well.

lol....actually past 2 days i'm up $5k on HGU/HZD
just need a lot more of these ... :banghead:

nice man!! i just need 3 of those and i'm back LOL


you still holding HGU ?? nice rally today :)

[997TT]

^ holding HGU

I must've found someones horseshoes b/c i rocked gold/silver the past 3 days.

Fri - bought HGU
Mon - sold HGU and bought HZD
Tue - sold HZD rebought HGU

gold goes up Mon (i sell 0.10 off the high) and silver goes down (i got in near its low)
silver tanks today after opening down and after i sell and gold shoots thru the roof 0.1 off its low.

Why can't trading always work in your favor like this? lol

[troyl]

^ Good call unloading HZD this morn, got pounded today.

[DRKM]

I got a two day long signal for HGU from todays last.

[djayz]

Originally posted by DRKM
I got a two day long signal for HGU from todays last.

You're going to be making big bucks if you bought in on HGU yesterday, gold is exploding overnight and we could see 1100 by morning, if we hit 1100 there could be a huge explosion to who knows what.

:banghead: I just went huge on HGD yesterday too because I didn't think this gold rally would hold with the dollar regaining strength.

Think I'm going to take a HGU market order for the morning and just ride it up, could be another 10% up day for the etf...

[SilverRex]

ok so everything is at the edge of their seats. Dow wasnt able to crack 9700 really and is forcing a bit of an upside here until it does, but the buying hasnt really gone great either = buying is really drying up. I guess people are now turning to gold?

lets look at gold first. It has always been my expecation from the start ever since it punched thru 991 that the projected target top out for gold would be some where between 1033-1189. 1189 max peak based on the 681-1006 run price projection. If you stick to technical work. Gold must fall first before it can rise to extreme heights.

so I caution everyone that gold has gone as high as it should and if it closes above 1060, it would turn gold neutral, and if it over takes 1065 (the red line shown) then it's gunning for a move to 1100. And so after it broke thru that we got as close as 1095. Not to shabby just sticking to the obvious. With such short term bullish momentum, I can only expect if the dollar turns around, it will take a bit of a breather but no lower than 1060 to make the final drive higher (a blow off top?) unless it can quickly re-enter under 1050 then the bearish view comes right back to us. But with the dollar over sold, and gold overbought. I wont take a long position here either.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold1104009.jpg

I am going to post a silver chart here, which I normally wouldnt since silver follows gold or vice versa. But while gold notched a new all time high, silver is still lagging. looking at this higher time frame. Silver hasnt broken out just yet, but the gain has been impressive none the less. You can say silver had a truncated 5th wave bottom and turned the thing around completely. But to make sense of it all. silver isnt in the clear just yet. The top neckline in red must be taking out just above 17.70, also there is a 78.6% fibo retracement just near 17.65. marking this is a good short bet around this area couple with over bought stochastic. Not saying you jump in with both feet. but for bulls this area must be taken out to further fuel market rally (and gold further rise)
but this will be at the least a good swing trade around here with a tight stop just above 17.70 (imo)

now the fun would begin if it does turn around and heads for the bottom neckline. why? then silver would put in a very nice H&S pattern. Taking out this neckline would instantly be extremely bearish then we will know the commoditiy sectors had topped out. so long ways to go but that is my expecation at the moment. Silver must take out 17.7 and 18.10 to negate the H&S possibility. Keep your silver chart watch closely since gold is in a topping out process that may not be easy to read but silver offers a better view of what is happening.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver110409.jpg

ok done with too much talking, back to oil. I caution oil is having the most difficult time staying under 77. and with the rise in gold, it helped pushed oil back to recent highs. the 80.50 in my view is a make or break. Taking this out for oil = breaking out of its trend channel. then I would sit and wait and see what it does between 80.5-82. because remember I said oil based on Major wave I which is around 20 dollars. still might target 85 to complete its full 5 wave cycle top? perhaps oil is too have not topped out yet.

with stoch also extremely overbought, im not just if the breakout here above 80.50 will be a real one. but then again 82 isnt that far, my suggestion is, it is a good risk/reward bet to short between 80-82 with a stop just above 82 and see if the dollar can turn around (which I'll explain next) to help bring oil back down. why is it such a good swing trade or short bet? because if the dollar is indeed on a true rally, oil will last long at these heights, and if it does take a nose dive to the down side shorting oil above 80 = amazing entry. again short only on your own risk tolerence.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil110409.jpg

and so the dollar is the only pair that has been making good of my own analysis. I expected a breakout which I got, and I expected a drop to test the previous broken trend line which I also got. so now that the dollar has hit extreme oversold. my expecation is the drop should be finished and we should see dollar climb again. however nothing is always 100%. ideally I would want to see the dollar hold just above its 200EMA and re-capture above 76.30 to bring the bulls back (technically) for bearish view is if dollar cannot sustain above 76.05.

it would turn dollar from bullish back to neutral (larger correction) if it breaks down to 75.90 or even 76.6 support. (and if it takes out 75.5) then that would be very bearish and I would kick my self in the face yet again for jumping the gun on ths dollar bottom play. That would be quite disgusting and I Am sure just when I jump on the dollar to the pit wagon this thing will turn around. The last thing I want is following the spec traders alike on this. Remember the DSI reading had 98% investor bearish on the dollar? with such extreme conditions, there is no one else left to further dollar's sell off. its an early indicator that the dollar is about to head the other way just like it did back in march 2008. but anyways. one day at a time. dollar is over sold. my view is up from here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110409.jpg

[DRKM]

What is very intresting is the rally yesterday in oil had no volume what so ever. I would post up a picture but I seem to be having troubles posting for some reason.

Anyway volume has been steadily decreasing since the 27. oil is trading at the top of its overnight range so place your bets on the breakout on either side...

But today is a big day hopefully with all of the insane variance we have been having.

[SilverRex]

Ok so anyone reads the news (old now) that India bought 200 tonns of Gold off IMF?

think about it. IMF isnt stupid, they've held their holdings for so long.

while the news appears positive I Think IMF found a sucker to buy at current prices.

remember the rich gets richer and the poorer gets poorer.

if gold just broke to new highs, why would IMF sell gold now?

I think this is a divergence. before india laughs at their purchase, they are going to see red for a while first.

it would be quite ironic if they see a panic sell off in gold and they dump it back onto the market only to be picked up by smart players like china who only buys at the right price.

its also concerning (for gold bulls) why china doesnt jump in with both feet on the purchase for themselves.

also the cot are hitting extreme record high in short cocentrated position for both gold and silver. havent seen such level of short contracts since gold first hit 1033 for the first time.

either the big players /banks GS/JPM or who ever is behind all of this is quite stupid or they continue to believe gold isnt going anywhere just yet.

I am holding my view gold have to drop first before it rises to extreme heights. while technically most including myself expected it to hi the 500-600 area. with the higher high these days, its no denying gold will be a great pick up if it drops for what ever reason 200 dollar/ounce.

the next major crisis will be a currency event. I sure hope we get to see one more panic sell off in gold then its load up time :D

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by DRKM
What is very intresting is the rally yesterday in oil had no volume what so ever. I would post up a picture but I seem to be having troubles posting for some reason.

Anyway volume has been steadily decreasing since the 27. oil is trading at the top of its overnight range so place your bets on the breakout on either side...

But today is a big day hopefully with all of the insane variance we have been having.

i agree I look at USO and ever since it broke out from a consolidation pattern, its been declining in vol ever since.

if 82 oil top isnt it. certainly I would put in a large short position right at 85 oil.

85 oil just seems so perfect.

wave I rise 35-55 (20 dollars) wave III rise 45-74 (about 30 dollars) then wave V rise (final) 65 to ? remember often than not wave I = wave V so 85?

[SilverRex]

hey notice depsite the strong gold rally and rise of oil. NG popped a bit over night but now is in red.

hnd is hugging the 6.60 quite some time now. is it waiting to break out higher?

[DRKM]

Originally posted by SilverRex
hey notice depsite the strong gold rally and rise of oil. NG popped a bit over night but now is in red.

hnd is hugging the 6.60 quite some time now. is it waiting to break out higher?

I don't think that there is as high of a correlation between oil and NG as people think there are.

One thing that is very bearish for NG is the hedging that took place in spring. Gas was being hedged at 6-8 dollars.

Now think about the mess low prices will create with people hedging this year?

[troyl]

It will be interesting to see what Nat Gas will do in the coming weeks. Typically inventories build into nov, so they start to draw down. Good for us nat gas bulls.. Am i the only one here? Holding ITX for gas exposure.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by DRKM


I don't think that there is as high of a correlation between oil and NG as people think there are.

One thing that is very bearish for NG is the hedging that took place in spring. Gas was being hedged at 6-8 dollars.

Now think about the mess low prices will create with people hedging this year?

all I know is oil really is more tied to the dollar's movement then anything else. while NG imo strictly moves based on supply/demand. NG isnt black gold as most would call it for oil.

but if oil doesnt keep making new highs. NG will certainly not be able to move aggressively.

the last bit of a surprised rally was probablly due alot more with short covering then anything else.

My expecation for NG in the coming weaks remains down.

also DOW is near 9900. make or break. its the 50% retracement and 9950 61% fibo from the recent highs to lows. either we turn around here or its a retest above 10k.

based on how the dollar is moving of late. my expecation is for the DOW to turn around yet again, and the next time we take out 9700 = straight to 9400s. then a bit of a short covering rally back to retest the broken trend line some where around current levels that would put in a nice H&S view.

let see if that's what it 'll do

[cosmok]

4MM bbl draw of crude

Edit: Strong initial reaction but it seems to be heading back down

[cosmok]

Some crazy spikes on the USD index :nut:

http://www.chartseeker.com/images/USDX-1HR-LG.png

[SilverRex]

fed announces likely to keep rates down for more time. concern with growth.

now if the market is recovering like they say why would they not begin to raise the rates?

probablly because we are not out of the woods yet?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok
Some crazy spikes on the USD index :nut:

http://www.chartseeker.com/images/USDX-1HR-LG.png

nice way to test the 75.50 area close enough. 75.5 must hold if the dollar is to begin a strong rise out of this correction

[SilverRex]

wow looks like bears are winning, big bearhs hammer on the euro. this may be the peak of a next major wave down boys

[997TT]

sold HGU.

anybody taking a chance on an overnight buy going into tomorrow?

tempted to buy HGD .... but in this market being short is risky.

[cosmok]

^You could try a play on natural gas.. inventory day is tomorrow.

[djayz]

Opened up another position of HGD at 4.66, just couldn't resist. It's been jumping up and down so much I could probably flip it for a couple hundred bucks at a time instead of waiting for the 10%+ days :D

[SilverRex]

DOw collasping yet again

watch the next time it takes out 9700 its straight to 9400 imo

its put in a abc corrective top at 9850 and the 9900 today

[skandalouz_08]

997 are you still watching WEE and looking to get back in if it gets into the 2.60's?

[997TT]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08
997 are you still watching WEE and looking to get back in if it gets into the 2.60's?

still holding my the 1/2 position i didn't sell

doesn't seem to sell off much so i'm hoping its building a base around $2.60-$2.90 and if another news release comes out we get another 15%+

[Criticull]

Originally posted by SilverRex
fed announces likely to keep rates down for more time. concern with growth.

now if the market is recovering like they say why would they not begin to raise the rates?

probablly because we are not out of the woods yet?

Fed won't raise rates until inflation becomes an issue or sustained growth resumes. It would help the USD, but the economy is way too fragile.

[SilverRex]

ok so oil was a bit of a crap shoot, it wasnt perfect but it still was able to remain under the trend channel, the break above 80.70 seem like a perfect breakout, but with price finding ways to close under the channel. one can only wonder if that is just pure weakness.

Right now I would apply the same expecation that as long as oil doesnt break above yesterday's highs around 81. I would continue to expect the next major move is down. But if 81 is broken I will wait to see if it will take out 82 and pehaps attampt to time the next top at 85 oil.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil110509.jpg


gold didnt drop much but it didnt rise too much as well. now a bit of a minor neckline is forming, gold must take this out to begin a bit of a pull back down to test the breakout resistance around 1065. until it does this, based on pattern it may break out to the top side for a bit of a higher high but I still feel gold around 1100 is to be a short term top area. expect down side higher probability in the next few days.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold110509.jpg

im posting the DOW as you can see the strong up trend line remains in tack (denote in red) however the final sell off late in the day is of concern for bulls. the recent rally off just under 9700 appears corrective in structure. while my expecation is the next leg down will finally break the trend line and onto a stronger sell off targeting between 9200-9400 area. I must throw out an alt count in case this 3 way pattern zig zag offers a higher high some where near 10k

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow110509.jpg

finally the dollar, after peaking at 76.80 and selling off to my expecation, didnt expected the sell off would be this steep. dollar is still holding at its own 61.8% fibo level which means bullish view is in tact. but it is very close to a make or break support just at 75.50 or 75.49 to be exact. it would turn dollar back to neutral and semi bearish territory if this level does not hold. otherwise I expect the next major move is up. this entire sell off could be seen as a larger abc correction.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110509.jpg

[997TT]

just filled HGD at 4.72.

stop at 4.50

[cosmok]

NRI guy was right

[cosmok]

Summary
Working gas in storage was 3,788 Bcf as of Friday, October 30, 2009, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 29 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 379 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 414 Bcf above the 5-year average of 3,374 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 123 Bcf above the 5-year average following net injections of 27 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 227 Bcf above the 5-year average of 962 Bcf after a net injection of 1 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 64 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 1 Bcf. At 3,788 Bcf, total working gas is above the 5-year historical range.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.gif

[SilverRex]

^

supply apperas to be increasing still.

anyways NG I will be expecting it to drop to near 4 dollar on first attampt as that is a previous breakout trend line.

and if the market is overly bearish, next target would be around 3.3-3.5

[cosmok]

^^I think 4.34 (previous NGZ9 low) is going to put up a fight, if it breaks through that it'll be interesting

[SilverRex]

well tomorrow's going to be a big day with the payroll and unemployment.

one can only fathom what will happen to the market if we get a double digit unemployment rate across the head lines.

so far the market is setup to fall substiantially. and the dollar is at a crossroad either a sell off to new lows or a strong sub wave III rally to higher highs 77+

the only thing that looks kinda bullish right now is oil on the edge of a breakout it appears does it really want to hit 85?

dow was a surprise didnt expect a strong rise today, now hovering juder under 10k. concerned that it came out of a mini H&S that will target the 10200 area. So perhaps DOW may want to put in a double top or divergence also before the big move down?

tomorrow will be a very important day for the US dollar. We may be at a potential top that will fade into the distance in a few months.

[997TT]

^hui just wont give up 430

might consider selling for a 0.1 gain on hgd ... $500 is $500 and i'm not sure i want to fk with this market.

[SilverRex]

^

wait for gold to drop below 1085 first until it does, hgu not going anywhere.

aside tomorrow will be a big day, im expecating a big rally in the US dollar after the data is released

[DJ_NAV]

rally in the dollar up or down?

[hattonlynch]

has anyone gotten into BCB (Cott Corporation)? I remember watching that stock go from 93 cents and now its at almost 10.00.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
^hui just wont give up 430

might consider selling for a 0.1 gain on hgd ... $500 is $500 and i'm not sure i want to fk with this market.

yeah my though exactly.. hard to be short...

500$ is not bad at all:D


any other stocks you looking at ?

[Dinan]

wow, didn't see this coming today, close over 10k again...

[DRKM]

Wow was shorting hgu all day. End of day rallys suck...

[SilverRex]

ok the moment of truth is here. we wil soon find out just what the dollar is made of today. Starting with the unemployment and payroll data coming out shortly, this will be a market mover. Why anything can happen, technically I am hoping its going to be dollar positive since the charts are so far setup that way.

lets look at oil, its amazing oil continues to trade under the trend channel. so only two possible scenario. a second break out above 80 that will push oil back to 82 and possibly the 85 target. Or a trend reversal here and right back down to the bottom of the channel which is at around 76

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil110609.jpg

and gold is in a similar scenario while not in a channel but upside is getting exhusted. any pop would be viewed as a good short opportunity imo, or a confirmation the downleg has started would be a break below 1088 at this point. expectation is to the down side back to 1065-1070

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold110609.jpg

and the US dollar, has tested the 61.8% fibo 3 times and have tested near 75.5 two times. This is where the US dollar must turn around or risk turning the entire struture back to bearish territory. look for clues the up leg has started once it re-captures above 75.95.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110609.jpg

again the data released today will be pretty significant, could we be met with high volaility, who knows. the DOW closed above 10k, could very well hit a double top near 10100? I continue to believe 10k+ at this point is unstainable without a substantial pull back correction some where south of 20%

let the fun begin

[SilverRex]

wow unemployment rate 10.2%

this is going to stink the market place

is this the catalyst we need for a start of a bigger pull back ?

[DRKM]

10.2% Hell yeah! But what I don't get is why Gold spiked like a mother fucker>?
But damn oil dropped like a rock!

Should be an intresiting day still shorting HGU at the moment. Just need gold to cooperate.

[SilverRex]

^ while I expect weakness for gold if your shorting gold because of a weak stock market or strong dollar just be careful

gold is the one thing that can suddenly follow a rising dollar,

but then again, its not gold's role your worried its the gold mining stocks which imo does follow the market. so if stock tanks, so will the miners

[SilverRex]

still need to confirm dollar index over 75.95 for a resumption of uptrend not completely out of the woods yet.

[cosmok]

^Looks like it wants to go the other way

[DRKM]

Both canadian and american job post reports where bearish as hell and the market rallys?

[SilverRex]

^

yup doesnt make sense but for me my eyes are on the trigger (going long on usd/cad)

if the dollar at 75.50 gives away, then I have to exit my market shorts and wait. otherwise I just have to believe the next major move is down

[SilverRex]

DOw has touched the 78.6% fibo, gold touched 1100

its a perfect turn around area so let see what happens

[Dinan]

wow, gold over 1100 :eek:

[cosmok]

Was anyone else watching TBZ? http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=CVE:TBZ
:eek: