Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Dinan]

wow!!! where did i see TBZ before, it looks familiar :dunno:

[SilverRex]

call me stupid but im not buying the rally

shorting oil

exited NG

holding my dollar longs (unless 75.5 caves in)

[cosmok]

What NG position you have SR?

[SilverRex]

^

i sold just above 7 on hnd this morning.

while I believe NG would have further down side, it just the previous resistance of 4.57 in the past bugs me a little.

im turning into shorting oil instead but if NG suddenly rallies I will look for a better entry to short again

dollar still holding above 75.5 which is great.
market starting to run out of gas

[djayz]

And another 2 short position opened up on gold, damn this is getting scary now!

[Dinan]

Originally posted by djayz
And another 2 short position opened up on gold, damn this is getting scary now!


HGD ??

[Mark_Nguyen]

HGD is the Gold Bear for stocks or the commodity?

[Mark_Nguyen]

Just realized it was the opposite of HGU so HGD is for GOLD stocks

[Dinan]

Originally posted by Mark_Nguyen
Just realized it was the opposite of HGU so HGD is for GOLD stocks

they both bear and bull for gold stocks... not gold it's self... but most of us here use them anyways, and most of the time get pissed with gold drops and HGD doesn't really move, cause the gold stocks don't drop...

[superboyazn]

Finally HND comes back!

Bought it when it was $14 before the split.. finally broke even! :clap:

[Bisklimpkit]

Originally posted by superboyazn
Finally HND comes back!

Bought it when it was $14 before the split.. finally broke even! :clap:

Lucky guy...

I averaged down with it, and am still in at a current average of 11.05. Probably going to dump it today and take the loss, and then get to work building my equity back.

[s_havinga]

7.93 is my break even on HND. Think we'll see it?

[SilverRex]

good risk/reward gamble here to short silver with stop above todays high target into the 14s (silver price)

[Dinan]

wow, anyone know whats up with GO.to

i bought at 5.30 the other day for a quick flip and look at it now :nut:

[cosmok]

^Nice one

[Dinan]

Originally posted by cosmok
^Nice one

hahaha, if i only hang on to it :(:banghead:

[Artega]

SR,

is now the time to jump into HGD?
hoping that the eventual drop in price will drag down the stocks?

[Bisklimpkit]

How is the roll-over beginning on Monday going to affect the price of HND? We'll be 87.5% Dec and 12.5% Jan, correct? I didn't sell any before the market closed, so I'm curious to see opinions on what people forecast Monday might bring.

[DRKM]

Honestly ng is the hardest thing to forecast in the world the volatility is insane.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by s_havinga
7.93 is my break even on HND. Think we'll see it?

Sell it at 13.00

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Sell it at 13.00

13 HND.to?

assuming no roll over, your expecting NG to drop from 4.55 to 2.80

obviously its possible but the most likely target right now is around 3.3-3.5

[troyl]

Originally posted by cosmok
Was anyone else watching TBZ? http://www.google.ca/finance?client=ob&q=CVE:TBZ
:eek:

10 for 1 consolidation. Dont get to excited.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex


13 HND.to?

assuming no roll over, your expecting NG to drop from 4.55 to 2.80

obviously its possible but the most likely target right now is around 3.3-3.5

Yeah im looking for it to re-test the low.

[djayz]

Looks like anyone holding HGD is going to get slaughtered, gold is defying gravity right now so it's not looking very good. I'm so loaded up on it right now too that if gold tanks I'll probably make back the remainder of my losses for the year!

[SilverRex]

well thanks to the G20, it was anti-dollar, and so it has put the dollar on caution alert.

first look at oil, while it was great that it fell thru the cracks on friday while the stock market continued higher, because of the sudden weakness in the dollar I have to caution dollar's breakout potential. While a dollar bottom would have been convinced to short every oil rally. it has made the 80-80.50 area a extremely critical resistance. You may continued to short the oil but make sure stops are in place above 80.50 If this level is taken out I believe this break out will fuel a rally as high as 85. but not all hope is at lost for shorts either and I'll explain in the next few charts.

however I must comment there is a bit of a gap to be filled just under 78. so we will see if it will do that this morning.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil110909.jpg

now for gold, gold never broke its neckline (in red) and as a result, its uptrend remained in tact. with this count I expected its in the final stages of establishing a sub wave 5 simply on the basis that wave V = wave I and if wave I gave us about 20-21 dollars, it has put the 1107-1108 range a top a ideal target to end this current rally off the 1020s. But I would caution shorting until we see a new correction started by first taking out the 1095 until then, any more weakness in the dollar could result in a blow off top, but stoch being overbought is definately a 1st sign that gold may have exhusted its run to begin the week.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold110909.jpg

Finally the dollar, again thanks to the G20 over the weekend (havent caught all the details but the headline was dollar negative and so we have a bit of a break down and currently dollar is holding just above the 74.90 lows that was established a few weeks ago.

It was discouraging to see dollar take out the 75.49 support which was originally a sub wave I top that must hold but since it didnt, it has collasped the recent up leg. I feel guilty in being caught with my pants down again. What can you do. But I wont short dollar at this moment either. it has gone back to neutral. now we wait. dollar is over sold, its near its previous support. and also near a major support of 74.50 could very well test this for all I know, but the key now is that again similar to oil, a gap needs to be filled above 75.35. I can only fathom a double bottom off 75 at this point in time.

So lets wait and see. after all once we truely confirm dollar has lifted off, there will be plenty of upside to get back into the trend. First lets wait to see if the dollar wants to break down and test the last major support at 74.50 or recapture above 75.50 or turn the entire struture back to bullish sentiment if it can break above the purple down trend line or namely 75.95 (remember I said dollar must take out 75.95 last week to confirm and because it didnt we got the beat down.

Again no panic here for dollar longs. its just that now we have to wait a tad longer before getting exciting again.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110909.jpg

also notice while gold is up, oil is up, stock's up. but NG is still down? NG play is probabablly the last thing people will play unless everything is all rosy. I guess an indication something isnt adding up.

[SilverRex]

ok this may worth a look.

gold made new highs, oil almost broke out, dow made new highs.
dollar testing previous low.

but yet silver hasnt able to muster enough to technically break out. instead it is respecting its down trend line just under 17.80 this chart was forseen last week and I expected the 17.70 area to hold up and so far it is.

could the recent rally simply be a corrective structure with a steep retracement?

if silver is going to lead the market or gold, then the next wave possibly a wave III will be quite strong.

this would go hand in hand for the dollar to formulate a double bottom imo.

for silver players. watch the red trend line, if broken to the upside, it could be a prelude to what is to come for the rest of the market. but as long as its looking weak which is what its doing now with negative divergence to price occuring. the next major drop I still favor the down side. my target remains silver to break into the 14s.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver110909.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

good day for the market today... almost 200 pts!! made some money. any thoughts on rim??

[DRKM]

Got a signal for hou for tommarow. But I am a little cautious since this hurricane shit will have blown over by tonight.

[The_Rural_Juror]

What kind of a signal?:dunno:

[SilverRex]

ok so monday was monday. lets see what tuesday will bring. oil again still under the trend channel. so far the rally on monday appears corrective as long as it remains under yesterday's high which is around 80.3 I believe. as long as this isnt broken, next move I am going to have to favor is still down. but if it suprises us with an upside breakout, then caution as oil would be ready to make new highs.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil111009.jpg

gold after touching just above 1110 apperas finished in a sub 5 wave pattern and retracement was underway. first test will be towards the up trending neckline which is now in the low 1090s. Certainly with a bullish dollar set up this tuesday morning I am going to pick a break down, but even if it breaks down, the 200 EMA near 1080s would most likely offer the next support. I dont believe gold will become extremely bearish unless it can close below the 200 EMA. While silver is moving down nicely, gold continues to remain neutral in my books at the moment.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111009.jpg

finally the dollar tested the previous bottom and is holding as support. will this be a double bottom pattern in the making? well a few clues that may suggest so. one is the large gap left by opening down over the weekend. I suspect we will fill this gap either today or tomorrow. key would be if the same down trend line (in purple) will cap its advance. it would bring the bulls back to the table and suggest the double bottom play with we can get dollar back above 76. until then caution on the dollar. but I view if there is a sudden sell off, next support will be around 74.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111009.jpg

[DRKM]

I have noticed that since that massive sell of on the 6th volume has returned. Another thing that is intresting is that it oil was moving the opposite direction this morning of the EURO/USD. But who knows how long that will last.

As for the Dow it is trading near the top of its range. But I really don't think we will see any real market weakness for a little while till they stop pumping up the market with cash.

Oh also something else that is intresting is the pattern of the EURO and dow on the daily charts are very very very similar.

As for the demise of the dollar until the EURO/USD goes below 1.4626 I am short. Mind you the EURO is trading in the upper end of its box, a break out is at 1.56**.


Asset Bubble anyone?

[The_Rural_Juror]

Thank you for your tuesday morning thoughts gentlemen.

[SilverRex]

its interesting despite oil is near its high, dow is at a its high. NG is the only sector with a continued sell off.

hnd back above 7.5, who would have thought lol

[SilverRex]

also DOW is coming up to its 50% retracement at 10334 and the 200 EMA on the weekly chart just under 10463

is this where the DOW wants to pick a trend reversal?

[superboyazn]

"Global gas demand looks set to fall this year and the market is likely to remain oversupplied until 2015, despite a rise in demand when the economy begins to recover, the International Energy Agency."


This might kill gas prices?

[Bisklimpkit]

So what's the general consensus on WEE now that it's dropped below the 2.40 mark?

[mr2mike]

What's the concensus on HNU? It's riding lower and lower. It's nearing the low that it had in April09. Just wondering when everyone might start stepping into this?

I'm seriously considering it. Although I'm hesitant to hold for longer than a day as it seems to gap down quite a bit after a late day surge.

[SilverRex]

^ its your call but i feel NG is still in a bearish enverioment

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by Bisklimpkit
So what's the general consensus on WEE now that it's dropped below the 2.40 mark?

I'm watching it, but didn't expect this big of a drop. Going to try and pick it up near the end of the trading day.

[st184]

Just doubled my money in OTC:SNRG, considering trends it might have quite a bit of life left in it.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by mr2mike
What's the concensus on HNU? It's riding lower and lower. It's nearing the low that it had in April09. Just wondering when everyone might start stepping into this?

I'm seriously considering it. Although I'm hesitant to hold for longer than a day as it seems to gap down quite a bit after a late day surge.

Listen DO NOT BUY HNU! Are you out of your damn mind?
If you want to play the NG market but want substantially less volatility by into ng stocks.

[Dinan]

damn, GOLD IS ON FIREEE!!!


HGU at 14.50 ... wow... should have pulled the trigger at 10.60 ......ahhhhhhh

[SilverRex]

ok so it wasnt really other a spectacular day by anymeans. While the dollar tried to bottom out, it failed over night as it push to new lows while gold achieved newer highs.

looking at oil, I am not going to post as the last few chart is very much the same. in a trend channel with a possible breakout to the upside. set your stops above 80.50, as long as this channel holds under 80.50, many are taking advantage of this heavy resistance area to the down side. but a breakout from this trend channel should easily take out 82 and onto 85 which has always been my target.

as for gold, clearly it did not break down, the new neckline is now revised to just a bit under 1101, until this gets taken out, gold will remain bullishly planted. however my new count suggest this is a 5 wave extension off the 5th wave and based on price projection and the fact its near the 1120 next level resistance. suggest A temporary top should be near if not in place. my expecation couple with the over bought indicator suggest next major move down to at least 1101 retest with a possible break down if this infact is a finished extended 5 of 5 and onto the 1080s area. however dont rule out any spike this morning either as there is plenty of optimism in the market place on preopen.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111109.jpg

so the dollar double bottom did not hold, but it also didnt sell off as one would think. The US allowing a slow death in the dollar?

perhaps the analogy goes, the further the sell off, the harder the swing higher? who knows. right now dollar touched near 74.70s, and remember the next major support is around 74.50 I expect there will be activity in this region. not only that I still feel confident its a matter of time until the gap up to 75.70 will be filled which means all the latestest sell off could only mean divergence. and stoch is showing just that. expect the dollar to at least turn around for (A) bottom and even the possibility of (THE) bottom today. Any sell off towards 74.50 would be viewed as a buying opportunity.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111109.jpg

also the dow is near some major areas. only a 100 pts away from tis 50% retracement, a strong weekly 200 EMA near 10463 and also for those that follow Jim armstrong turn events. he suggest the 10800-11k area to be critical. breaking above this would signal inflation is sooner than anticipated. He offers some critical areas such as 8800 which will be the level to watch before the year closes out. it will be interesting with 1 1/2 month to go, if the market can hold above 8800. and if it does, it could very well signal the bottom off 6500 would be it.

but until the yearly closing price. I believe he's prediction is still calling for 4000 dow. So we will just have to see how it plays out.

[SilverRex]

DOW is at 10301, I am expect the 103xx to turn this around to provide A top and possibly the top.

[SilverRex]

DOW is at 10301, I am expect the 103xx to turn this around to provide A top and possibly the top.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex
DOW is at 10301, I am expect the 103xx to turn this around to provide A top and possibly the top.
Nice call

[djayz]

Damn gold and markets, this is probably the worst stretch ever to be heavily weighted in HGD, gold is on a huge bull run, the markets seem to continue to go up day by day even though market sentiment is bad and I'm sitting here watching my portfolio decrease by 3% everyday :(

SR we going to see a down wave or turn around soon or what, think it's a good time to avg down on HGD again?

edit: I couldn't resist bought another position in HGD at 4.20

[DRKM]

Oil is setting up a nice head and shoulders pattern on the hourly.

e

[SilverRex]

well let see here, while like I said, we will need confirmation. looking at the dollar weekly chart. what do you think,

we just touched off the uptrend line dated back to the low in 2008. Could this be where the dollar finally fulfill its target?

while the next major support near 74.40-74.50 hasnt been hit. its not a bad thing that it rallies off here.

confirmation requires the 10 and 20 EMA cross over.

either way that will take some time but once its confirmed I think there will be plenty of time to catch the ride

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarweekly.jpg

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by DRKM


Listen DO NOT BUY HNU! Are you out of your damn mind?
If you want to play the NG market but want substantially less volatility by into ng stocks.


I wouldn't be buying HNU either unless it's for a quick 3-4 day hold as it bounces off support

The problem with NG is this:
- It's oversupplied
- It will remain oversupplied. Why? Because all of the producers are hedging their production at 5-6-7-8 dollar gas well into the future so the crap spot price barely affects them. They only need 3-4$ gas to be making money with Shale gas.

- ie I understand encana has 75% of its gas hedged at 9$. They are laughing right now.

If you were a gas producer would you be shutting in your wells when youre producing at 3$ and selling at 8$???

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by SilverRex
confirmation requires the 10 and 20 EMA cross over.



Explain EMA? Still learning the lingo.

Thanks for the chart postings for the part-time traders who don't have trade station or other charting software.:thumbsup:

Broken_legs: You're right. The company I'm at, our hedging has kept us afloat for the past year or so accounting for easily 50% of our monthly net income back when gas was in the $2 range.

Is there a site where you can see who's hedged at what price for the majors? Or even airlines for that matter.

I guess I shouldn't be looking at this but I can't resist thinking it might hit a spike. I can't see it going lower than what it did a few months back and if it does, I'm out. It seems to slow on it's decline and flattening out. I guess I'll study the gold since everyone's buzz word is gold these past few weeks.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by mr2mike


Explain EMA? Still learning the lingo.

Thanks for the chart postings for the part-time traders who don't have trade station or other charting software.:thumbsup:

Broken_legs: You're right. The company I'm at, our hedging has kept us afloat for the past year or so accounting for easily 50% of our monthly net income back when gas was in the $2 range.

Is there a site where you can see who's hedged at what price for the majors? Or even airlines for that matter.

I guess I shouldn't be looking at this but I can't resist thinking it might hit a spike. I can't see it going lower than what it did a few months back and if it does, I'm out. It seems to slow on it's decline and flattening out. I guess I'll study the gold since everyone's buzz word is gold these past few weeks.


EMA is exponential moving average.


i dont see NG stalling out on its fall, to me its perfectly confined in a channel on the way down for the last few weeks. We are at resistance on the spot price, and on Dec/Jan contracts. I think it needs to fill the gap in the spot price still.

as far as checking the hedging you have to check each companies releases. The biggest producer in the US is hedged like no ones business. There are some blogs and what not out there, i found searching on google for blogs only "Natural Gas" was a good method to weasel out some good info.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/Gas1.jpg

[Dinan]

what you guys use, EMA or SMA ?? and why ?


thanks :)

[Dinan]

keep in mind today should be low volume as it's remembrance day and all so will see how tomorrow goes..


other then 2x etfs, lol what else you guys playing...


MPEL is really oversold, for anyone interested and earnings are on tuesday, should pop, macau is doing good :)

[e36bmw///]

nm

[troyl]

Originally posted by Dinan
what you guys use, EMA or SMA ?? and why ?


thanks :)

EMA's place a heavier weight on the most recent prices. SMA use a simple average calculation. For short term swing trades i like to use 10/13 ema's. For longer term i like SMA's the good old 50 and 200 day. Investopia should have the details of the full calculation assosiated with EMA's.

[troyl]

Originally posted by Dinan
keep in mind today should be low volume as it's remembrance day and all so will see how tomorrow goes..




Yup low volume day. Darn, Nat gas numbers dont come out until friday now due to remembrance day. Oil tomorrow.

[DJ_NAV]

Anyone making moves for Oil?

[SilverRex]

ok as I have posted yesterday with the dollar on the weekly chart has touched off a important trend line, so far the buying has started. We will require confirmation if this recent up move has any more legs.

so lets look at the dollar first. I suggested yesterday any further sell off would be short lived as there is gap to be filled. and the fact that it rallied off a trend line support on a higher time frame, it was expected for the dollar to rally and it did. now the key confirmation will come if it can find its way back above 75.50 and most importantly 75.95 until it does take caution, as the dollar rally is approaching over bought.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111209.jpg

with the dollar making a move, oil continues to struggle above 80 and again is coming down. The feeling isnt so strong with this down ward trend channel as it came on the heels of a rally breakout from 75. The pattern suggest a break out to the upside, but until it can break or close above 80.50, the view continues to short on rallies.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil111209.jpg

and for gold, it finally punched a bit over 1120 over night and is so far selling off due to over bought condition and nothing else. gold will remain neutral and semi bullish until it can take out the neck line now just under 1105. and it will require further breakdown below 1095 to bring the bears back out. so until this happens you can swing trade to the upside with tight stops near 1105 or 1095. below this I would begin to short on rallies. Also kind of hard to see, but gold is beginning to move into an expanding wedge that could suggest this up leg is terminal.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111209.jpg

Now for silver watchers going to throw this back up. for days I have mention the possibility that silver is having a steep retracement and could form a H&S patter on a higher time frame. its a surprise silver hasnt broken out of its own and still repsecting a trend line just under 17.75, while in hopes for a dollar bottom and market fall out, this steep retracement could be finished here and begin a sub wave iii of I to the down side. in order to fulfill this count it will have to take out 17.15 but if it does now it finds support instead with a eventual break out over 17.75 then this will mark a sub wave iv correction completed with a break out to the upside towards or above 18. Obviously this would turn the metals even more bullish.

So make or break we will soon find out today or tomorrow.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver111209.jpg

[Rat Fink]

.

[DRKM]

What I am finding interesting about gold is that it regularly making new highs overnight when the liquidity is low in asian and European markets.

I would be weary to short the trend at the moment but I suspect gold will move sideways before it moves tanks.


As for oil it needs to do something. Like SR said the pattern is a break out up but with the euro being unable to cross the 1.56* I am think ing that we are running low on steam.

[DRKM]

Also inventories out today!

[SilverRex]

wow hnd finally back to near 8 dollars.

I feel easier for those that stuck out holding NG short.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[mr2mike]

HOU: Looking at it. If it starts to bounce off resistance and rise a little, I'm in for a quick run.

[s_havinga]

Originally posted by SilverRex
wow hnd finally back to near 8 dollars.

I feel easier for those that stuck out holding NG short.

Where do you expect things to go from here? is $9.50-10 likely do you expect NG to pick up again?

[DJ_NAV]

JUst got some HOD... watching carefully.

[SilverRex]

ok so shorting on rallies all week long was the right move after all. while until oil moves breaks above or below this trend channel we can only continue to trade the channel with a buy low sell high approach. oil will continue to consolidate side ways until the dollar clearly makes its next major move either up or down.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil111309.jpg

looking at gold, it broke the 1105 neck line and hence it is now gone from bullish back to neutral but here I posted the daily chart it closed with a reversal candle pattern that suggest we have A top at the least. now any thrust should be viewed as a short at least to the 1065 area imo. taking out the 1060s would imply a larger correction is underway towards the lower 1000s

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111309.jpg

now the dollar, its just great that these little things tends to play out. I mention how the gap needs to be filled near 75.75 and it filled to the tick and reversed over night. now that price is correcting, lets see if the recent rally can hold. first the 75.20 marked as a sub wave i needs to hold, then our eyes will be the break above 75.95 which is not only a previous overhead resistance but also the trend line on the daily, breaking this is critical if dollar is to emerge from this multi month decline.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111309.jpg

[cosmok]

The hub prices for NG fell 10% yesterday, should be a clear indication that inventory continues to rise for those looking to play the report today.

[yoda124]

I'm thinking the market will keep rallying to years end yet this forum getting a little dead...anyone out there making money?

[Bisklimpkit]

I've started just looking at some larger companies, researching them a bit, and then just trying to take a few percent per trade out of them. I made myself 12% on my money this week doing it. I think I'm staying out of ETFs for a little while since getting burned by HND...

[Vanish3d]

of course HND is up, been climbing ever since i sold at 6... only lost 50% on that trade....

[bigbadboss101]

Same here. Was dropping everyday for weeks until I sold. Since then it went up $2.5

[997TT]

^lol

add me to the ranks of HND haters...

[guessboi]

I am still holding my HND. :nut:

[Bisklimpkit]

Originally posted by guessboi
I am still holding my HND. :nut:

:clap:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[s_havinga]

Originally posted by guessboi
I am still holding my HND. :nut:

Me too, I wish I would have had more money to average down a third time when I was -45%... I am now pretty close to break even on HND. Still about 15% down on HOD though

[djayz]

Looks like another slaughter day for anyone on the gold shorting side (like myself). I hope SR is right and we see a breakdown to 1065. Markets are in a bullish mood with futures up almost 1%.

I think i'll buy into HGU in the morning and see where it takes me because HGD is going to get killed today with gold up in the 1120's and a bullish market.

[SilverRex]

ok lets put gold up first. namely because of what shown here on the higher time frames. ever since gold broke out from this trinagle pattern, it was in a terminal move towards some where between 1033-1189 was my initial area. and so far we have got to as high as 1131 abouts.

now looking at the chart. what I notice is that there is definately an extension happening in the sub wave iii (marked in blue wave count) this is pretty bullish imo. while due to overbought and gold may have landed a short term Top around 1130. you may attampt to swing trade a short position down to near 1100 as there is where a uptrend neckline is holding the latest rally up. key level to watch for today is around 1102, which is the 50 EMA, breaking below this should begin a sub wave iv of iii correction taking it back to some where within the 1070-1080 range.

once completed it should make another run to complete the sub wave v of iii. then a larger correction. so appears it could be some time before gold's rally is finished.

the only way gold can technically force a bearish tone is to first take out 1070, then more importantly 1023, I am sure many EW expert would agree with these critical support area. until then, gold on a smaller time frame is moving in a widening wedge which is terminal so its only a matter of time until it peaks out and retrace into the 1070s area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111609.jpg

now onto oil, as suggested, its been over 3 weeks since oil has been trading in this trend channel. the pattern imo most likely will breakout to the upside and onto the 85 target I suggested. but until then buying low and selling high continues to be the right play. depending on if there is a mini sell off today because of some over bought condition it may retest the 75 area, but my asumption is that the next major move is back upto 80 amd a break above 80.50 should trigger a sharp rise to 82 which imo shouldnt hold and onto 85.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil111609.jpg

finally the dollar, ever since I said dollar needs to refill the gap left in the 75+ area it completely finished that but that was all she wrote, with dollar taking out 75.20 area has put the latest rally in japarody. And in such the next expecation is now new lows. Next major support under 74.80 now lies at around 74.30s would be the next likely area to go long.

but I would not jump in on dollar's strength today as I see it short lived. the for any dollar rally, I expect it continues to favor shorting the rallies until we get a confirmation of a stronger up trend unfolding. that will begin by taking out 75.95. Until it does that, we have to put all dollar rally on hold ane expect a lower low in the coming days.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111609.jpg

for NG, it has been quite the rebound for hnd. from 4.44 to near 8 dollars. while over all because of supply and demand I expect NG continues to be in a bearish trending marketing. the last major rally was quite the freak show or perhaps a massive short covering. I would anticipate next target low some where in the 3.3-3.5 for NG contract price. but with the weak dollar, and potentially higher high breakout in oil, I would expect NG may rebound a bit before resuming further down side. so take caution if your still holding after an impresive rebound for hnd.to

[DRKM]

COT LINK (http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm)

Look at the huge difference in short positions between the institutions and money mangers. Sweet jesus.

Also if you look at silver it is highly short as well...

Again commodities rise overnight on liquidity in asain markets.

If oil does not move lower expect it to stay in its range for a while and start to look on the upside.

Gold is just ridiculous at the moment so I have no comment on that. congrats if you are making money on gold stocks.

[cosmok]

Looks like NG is forming a bottom. Anyone jumping on silver long?

[997TT]

bought TLM on Friday ...hope to sell in the $20 range if Oil makes a move.

just picked up HGU at $14.92.

Fak...markets look like they will make another leg up. Will re-assess after 5-10% in profits...

oh ya since this is a car forum after all...i just picked up a set of HRE 590R's for my turbo. Probably get them in 5 weeks or so ... and then they sit in my garage till spring. lol

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by 997TT
bought TLM on Friday ...hope to sell in the $20 range if Oil makes a move.



I think buying TLM was a smart buy, I think it is undervalued, when the restructuring goes through in December watch for this company to be a solid performer.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
bought TLM on Friday ...hope to sell in the $20 range if Oil makes a move.

just picked up HGU at $14.92.

Fak...markets look like they will make another leg up. Will re-assess after 5-10% in profits...

oh ya since this is a car forum after all...i just picked up a set of HRE 590R's for my turbo. Probably get them in 5 weeks or so ... and then they sit in my garage till spring. lol

nice... so i guess you been making some nice cash from your recent trades :D

[997TT]

Originally posted by Dinan


nice... so i guess you been making some nice cash from your recent trades :D

not really...lol
just rather get something in return for my money then to add to my growing list of cap losses.

nothing worse than losing $x thousands of dollars and then thinking about what you could've done with that money (ie trip, car toys etc)

[cosmok]

Originally posted by guessboi
I am still holding my HND. :nut:
Getting killed today, hopefully it can stay above 7

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by cosmok
Looks like NG is forming a bottom.

That's what I was after last week. Got in last week $9.40. Happy on the gain but think it might be short lived. Watching closely. But it is forming a bottom, I agree. Possibly, won't hit $8 range like the last few times.

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT


not really...lol
just rather get something in return for my money then to add to my growing list of cap losses.

nothing worse than losing $x thousands of dollars and then thinking about what you could've done with that money (ie trip, car toys etc)

hahah, i know, please don't remind me :banghead:

[cosmok]

SR what are your thoughts on silver?

[cosmok]

Bernanke sure helped the USD climb edit: and it's worse off than before..


Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke early this afternoon on the status of the U.S. economy before the Economic Club of New York. His views on the recovery are very similar to earlier comments. He expects growth in 2010 to be "moderate" and that unemployment will stay high. The Fed chairman sees unemployment declining slowly. He cautions that household spending will likely be constrained due to stagnation in labor income. He sees commercial real estate lending as a problem area—anticipating sharp deterioration. Even though Bernanke states that the recovery is due to more than temporary factors, he believes the recovery will not be robust. He even cautions that future setbacks to economic growth are possible. Bernanke stated that the Fed is committed to a policy that maximizes employment and price stability. He reiterated that the fed funds rate likely will be exceptionally low for an extended period. The bottom line is that Bernanke falls in the camp that recovery is soft, held back by a subdued consumer sector and deteriorating commercial real estate lending.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok
SR what are your thoughts on silver?

silver has just broken out, obviously both gold and silver are still in a short term up trend. as suggested in my gold chart this morning. gold is in a terminal move looking for a top, but the medium term still has it looking for a higher top. unless gold can crush thru 1023, I see gold correcting towards 1070-1080, then make another move upwards. (first it needs to take out 1100 area)

right now gold is quite over bought, it should hit a top quite soon here

[cosmok]

^Wait for a pullback before entering a position at these levels? I think there's some big upside potential for silver

[997TT]

golds up $23 ... BAM

run mfkr run.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey SR

whats your thought on HOD?

wait till oil hits 82?
or will oil re test 76 tomorrow/

just looking for a quick flip
thanks

plan your moves around the chart I posted. but above 80.50 would be a breakout then you wait. personally for swing trades i would short at 85, you can attampt to short at 82 with a tight stop if its a fail breakout.

but right now based on the pattern, it does feel like oil is on a move higher and not lower

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by mr2mike


That's what I was after last week. Got in last week $9.40. Happy on the gain but think it might be short lived. Watching closely. But it is forming a bottom, I agree. Possibly, won't hit $8 range like the last few times.


Really? You guys think ng is bottoming?

I'm perfectly happy with the spot price staying between 4-5, it just keeps going down when it switches to a new contract - good time to be in HND if you can stomach it


http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/ng20091116.jpg

[mr2mike]

I'm basing my analysis solely on the HNU chart. Going back a year, it's bottomed around this point (April & Sept). Yes, I can still see it dropping lower after this quick up it had today. But I don't think it will drop into the $8 range (based on HNU chart) like previous bottoms.

Seeing the gas prices chart, I don't disagree, it's got a tough fight out but I see good support at the $4.40 range. I don't see the falling top quite as drastic as you have it but there's definitely resistance there.
But I'm up for other's opinions, it's what makes this trading fun and it can point out something that I don't see and vice versa.