Official Short-term Investments Thread [Archive] - Page 187 - Beyond.ca - Car Forums

broken_legs

11-17-2009, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by Bisklimpkit

I read that these guys are basically going to be paying down debt until at least year's end, which usually means share prices decrease. I'd be tempted to wait until their next quarterly report to see how things are going before I'd buy in, as I think you'll see that drop to $0.99 relatively soon. Just my two cents.

I think i read that somewhere too. Stockchase.com is good for analysts comments.

I should have mentioned I'm only looking at it technically.

This stock has been pretty much obliterated from $20.00 to $1.00.

I just like the support at 1.00 and the wedge.

Dinan

11-17-2009, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
Just bought KGN and GTE ...going long on both.

GTE a play on the fact that other colombian oil companies have done exceptionally well and their strong balance sheet.

KGN a play on their assets, potential takeover target and the fact that canaccord capital is bullish on them (same guys who liked WEE/BNK).

Oh ya, just rebought my half position on WEE that i sold earlier.

i was looking at GTE when it was in the low 4's then some guy on BNN pumped it on how good the balance sheet was and stuff and it popped over 5$ and never looked back, but looking at the charts it seems overbought and the full stoch is crossing down... i see some support close to the 5$ range, will look there to pick some up..i also noticed it bounces off the 20SMA, it's currently at 5.14, could be a good bounce play

by the way, that was for the US based stock...

yoda124

11-17-2009, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by broken_legs

I think i read that somewhere too. Stockchase.com is good for analysts comments.

I should have mentioned I'm only looking at it technically.

This stock has been pretty much obliterated from $20.00 to $1.00.

I just like the support at 1.00 and the wedge.

good support and wedge but the volume is missing.

DJ_NAV

11-17-2009, 11:50 AM

where are SR's comments today?

SilverRex

11-17-2009, 11:55 AM

sorry I was away this morning. not going to comment much on oil other than continue to trade within the trend channel, buy the low sell the high until a breakout occurs

for gold, it tried to breakout from its own megaphone pattern, but soon quickly fell back. my expecation is it will require a down move before it can go any higher. the higher time frame suggest an extension wave structure is happening indicating further upside. but even then short term I expect the next major move to be down at least to fill the gap within the area of 1118 as well as retest the important 1100 neckline that is support this entire trend.

breaking 1100 will quickly retest the 1070s. and breaking 1070s would then turn gold back to bearish atmposhpere.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111709.jpg

the dollar made a bit of a rally after achieving the expected new low. while it did not hit the 74.30s which was the next major support. sometime tells me every dip will always be met with buying. I dont think the US gov will allow massive sell off in the dollar, they would allow a steady decline.

while long term chart reamins bearish and is quite damaged. it will take a very strong dollar rally to turn the indicators around but until then we have to see confirmation.

with the dollar just broke out from a short term down trend line, we have some momentum, but with it being over bought it needs to fall back my expecation is a retest of the 75.20 support then make another assult towards 75.95 until dollar can over take this level dollar will continue to remain bearish

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111709.jpg

DJ_NAV

11-17-2009, 11:58 AM

thanks SR! really great input you have to this thread!

yoda124

11-17-2009, 02:41 PM

tck.b poised to break out again.

997TT

11-17-2009, 03:12 PM

what a recovery for gold ...

HGD $3.94 ... nuts.

pretty soon we are going to get a reverse split like the other horizons ETF's.

Dinan

11-17-2009, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by 997TT
what a recovery for gold ...

HGD $3.94 ... nuts.

pretty soon we are going to get a reverse split like the other horizons ETF's.

i take it you got out of HGD.....:)

e36bmw///

11-17-2009, 03:56 PM

DJ_NAV

11-17-2009, 04:09 PM

I want oil to tank to 70!! I know it wont.. but 75 would be nice.

broken_legs

11-17-2009, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by yoda124

good support and wedge but the volume is missing.

Yes you're right. Volume would be the confirmation, but I'm trying to get in before the move up. If it breaks down, i have a tight stop to limit risk. I would rather get into the trade and set my stop closer before a breakout is confirmed. To me i'm comfortable this way because the stop is closer and more obvious than somewhere on a trend line. 4-5 times it's hit 1.00, or 1.01. so i set my stop at 0.99

Meback

11-18-2009, 04:20 AM

Is anyone still holding onto HGD? I have average down my shares to 4.31 and I ain't giving in. Even though gold had just hit ~1146. I m sticking it thru!

SilverRex

11-18-2009, 07:23 AM

let see, oil is right on the edge of its seat, its a break out or another swing trade high and back down she goes. this pattern has been the most consistance over the past few weeks. the buy at the bottom of the pattern and sell short at the high continues to play out every day. with indicators again over bought. I can only continue to swing trades the range until it breaks free. if your long off 75, now would be the time to take profit. if your short, make sure stops are above 80.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil111809.jpg

yes I am sure some of you have notice, gold is back up, and with the break beyond its former megaphone pattern, it is now forming a wider pattern, but the pattern remains the same. with a bit of a gap to be filled in the low side. I still expect gold to retrace some where back to about 1115-1118 once it figures out a top. right now the 1 hour, 2 hour, 4 hour 8 hour and also daily charts are over sold. Unless gold defies technicality, otherwise chart is telling me next swing trade should be down.

also based on the triagle break out on the daily chart pattern since 991, the next probable projection target is near 1189, we are quite near imo. we will talk bearish if it can break this pattern to the down side.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111809.jpg

and finally the dollar, as I have expected, since dollar is very much in a bear trend, it did not have enough strength to even test the 76.95 let alone break thru it., the 75.20 support it re-established also did not hold price up and its back to basic perhaps retest the low near 74.70.

with most indicator again oversold, my expecation is that if it does not turn around here, it wont have much further to ago. what I meant by that is from yesterday's post I suggested that any sell off will continue to be met with a short rally. the US gov isnt going to let it slide to the pits all in one shot. so as soon as it makes a new low shortly after, buying picks up. appears the short covering or most shorts is figuring out that appears to be the pattern. short the high, get out after a new lows is established. but it just as difficult to hold on to your shorts without seeing profits vaporized imo, hence you get the 2 step down wards 1 step up action.

now we also have a over head neckline just under 75.60 if these type of near flat resistance necklines forming, you can imagine the daily chart is beginning to put in a rounded bottom, or at least it is trying to.

so let see where the dollar lands. 74.3? 74.70? or are we finished.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111809.jpg

cosmok

11-18-2009, 08:35 AM

Sold silver, watch it go to the moon now!

cosmok

11-18-2009, 09:31 AM

Oil inventories down by 0.9 mmbbls
Gasoline down by 1.7 mmbbls
Distillate down 0.3 mmbbls

Not very strong numbers for the bulls

s_havinga

11-18-2009, 10:29 AM

HND flirting with $8.00 again! NG testing $4.40.

mr2mike

11-18-2009, 10:41 AM

There's the drop in HNU I was expecting, yesterday.

997TT

11-18-2009, 11:37 AM

How about kgn and gte ...

Ride this next wave up.
Dinan, stopped out of hgd at 4.5. Now on the bull train with hgu. My portfolio is overweight gold ... But I'm cool with that. Lol

DJ_NAV

11-18-2009, 12:39 PM

so gas inventory is down.. but gas still moves down??

cosmok

11-18-2009, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
so gas inventory is down.. but gas still moves down??
That was gasoline, sorry. NG is reported Thursdays while oil is Wednesdays

The_Rural_Juror

11-18-2009, 01:37 PM

Good buying opportunity on RBI at under $15.

KappaSigma

11-18-2009, 01:59 PM

A heads up. GWY on the venture should begin drilling later this month. They are a play with VEN and GSl. Both have huge value and VEN especially has pulled amazing gold grades. Sucker could break out when drilling starts. Previous NR (nov 17) said expected second 1/2 of November 2009.

Also, for tose that bought VMS back a few months ago, they would of had a nice 50-70% gain as of today :)

Once again, this is just a heads up and do your own DD.

SilverRex

11-19-2009, 07:25 AM

ok so oil did not break out of the pattern. and I will continue to repeat trade the channel until a breakout occurs. as long as 80.50 oil holds I would continue to trade the 75-80 range.

with stoch over bought, a good chance oil could again resume its decline back to 75 but it will depend how the dollar acts this morning, because the dollar is making some interesting movement of late which I will explain in a bit.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil111909.jpg

for gold, the drop appears to have started after touched a high of around 1152. the drop however is supported but a nearterm neckline just under 1135 and with stoch also over sold, we will soon find out if gold is still very bullish or will take a further correction. my expecation is if the dollar can make a surprising breakout, then gold should be able to find its way to the next support range which is 1115-1125. the reason for such a range is, there is a few items that could hold gold up that would be the 200 EMA, two different necklines supports depending on how you connect the lows.

my bet is gold to find its way to this range, since if you look at the daily chart. it appears gold is in a short term top out process. our latest rally may appear ready to take a breather imo.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111909.jpg

ok the dollar, remember I suggested yesterday even if the dollar was to head lower, buying will immediately pick up. the sell off is becoming less sustainable (for some reason) since its near some critical support levesl a daily trend line drawn out since the 72 area, the 74.3 support and the fact that the dollar is over sold for months.

regardless if the dollar is ready to drift further, technically its expected to make a good short covering rally here some where.

so we saw the dollar recapture the 75.20 support. but is now over bought. a short term neckline is holding it down. key is to break above this drawn necklink to complete a reverse H&S pattern that should allow the dollar to test the 75.95 resistance. my bet is until we see the dollar climb over 75.95 and sustain above it, dollar is still bearish and you will find sell offs at these cirtical juncture.

my expecation this morning is that the dollar will drop and perhaps retest towards 75.20, and hopefully make a run to an eventual break out to the upside.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111909.jpg

cosmok

11-19-2009, 09:41 AM

Another 20 bcf build of NG

997TT

11-19-2009, 12:08 PM

So normally when I buy something it tanks asap.
Kgn and gte bucking the trend.
Maybe I've turned a new corner. Ya right ... Bring on the cap losses baby

e36bmw///

11-19-2009, 01:02 PM

cosmok

11-19-2009, 01:21 PM

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Hey I got a question for you guys..

Say if you register as a day trader.
I know you can wright off your expenses like some of your rent, internet, possibly laptop, iphone etc.

but you have to pay taxes on all trades, as opposed to half

what if you just trade on your TFSA?? can you still wright off all that stuff and not pay tax?

Depends if you have another job; if you just traded with a TFSA and had "zero" income you wouldn't be able to have any write offs.

yoda124

11-19-2009, 01:48 PM

tck.b still defying gravity...amazing

Meback

11-19-2009, 02:52 PM

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Hey I got a question for you guys..

Say if you register as a day trader.
I know you can wright off your expenses like some of your rent, internet, possibly laptop, iphone etc.

but you have to pay taxes on all trades, as opposed to half

what if you just trade on your TFSA?? can you still wright off all that stuff and not pay tax?

I did not know this, how do you go abouts in writing this stuff off?

Rat Fink

11-19-2009, 05:40 PM

djayz

11-20-2009, 04:22 AM

Anybody buying manulife?
I may pick up some shares since it's under $20 again, it always seems to rise no matter how bad it get pummelled.

SilverRex

11-20-2009, 07:15 AM

ok not much happening with oil other than the fact you will continue to profit by trading the channel. cant repeat enough with this obvious play. with the dollar creeping up again as expected. oil is making a move towards 75 once again. that would be the most likely take profit and perhaps a chance to go long with a tight stop

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil112009.jpg

now gold while it tries to resume an up move back to 1147, it has headed back down also due to dollar strength. now near a neckline, breaking below this would turn gold short term bearish.I still think we will see the likes of 1115-1125 simply because there are some gaps to be filled on the 1 hour chart as well as the daily chart.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold112009.jpg

to my surprised, im quite encourage to say my dollar expecation was executed perfectly. after resting the near term neckline forcing the dollar to head back down. I say the bullish count would have 75.20 support to hold and reverse back up with a breakout. we got exactly that this morning. now the dollar finally found a way back to test near 75.95. a break above 76 and sustain above this would begin to put the bulls back in charge. let see if its any different this time around. Will the dollar again be met with a sudden sell off and begin for a new low, or will this be the it? a confirmation the dollar is finally on a medium term (at the least) up swing that will bring the market down. if my count is correct, then the dollar is on a sub wave iii of III on the hourly chart. if the impsulsive move continues. this will be quite the powerful signal or trend reversal.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar112009.jpg

for NG, after that little rally which I kinda saw that coming a few days ago. the over all trend continues to be down and im happy to report, further weakness ahead.

997TT

11-20-2009, 09:49 AM

Eca started get back down there. I remember when I traded it from $52-55 several times.
Since I bought kgn a couple of days ago its up 20%. Don't know if I should sell half/all or just hold it. Frick I hate when I'm up. Lol

KappaSigma

11-20-2009, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by KappaSigma
A heads up. GWY on the venture should begin drilling later this month. They are a play with VEN and GSl. Both have huge value and VEN especially has pulled amazing gold grades. Sucker could break out when drilling starts. Previous NR (nov 17) said expected second 1/2 of November 2009.

Also, for tose that bought VMS back a few months ago, they would of had a nice 50-70% gain as of today :)

Once again, this is just a heads up and do your own DD.

Anyone take my advice on GWY???

ckangarloo

11-20-2009, 11:32 AM

^Nice pick. I'll listen more closely next time...

natejj

11-20-2009, 11:45 AM

http://www.google.com/finance?q=CVE%3ATRX

Anyone else watching TRX? Just waiting on a federal permit, looks like a perfect takeover target for Goldcorp, they already own 60% of there project.

Neil4Speed

11-20-2009, 03:19 PM

For any of you guys who sustained any losses this week, a story to make you feel better.

Holding NVA from about Wednesday on, lost about 10% of its value with no real good reason, I decided to hold on until today when I just said fuck with it when it was 1.7% down... Finished 2.9% up... Its like someone had it out for me.. FML.

Dinan

11-20-2009, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by 997TT
Eca started get back down there. I remember when I traded it from $52-55 several times.
Since I bought kgn a couple of days ago its up 20%. Don't know if I should sell half/all or just hold it. Frick I hate when I'm up. Lol

damn, nice pick, again....... where you find these ?? :)
did you sell ??

whats next :)

yellowsnow

11-22-2009, 11:36 AM

Would you guys hold HNU long right now? I know it's probably going down a bit more, but I'm ready to buy into it soon

broken_legs

11-22-2009, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by yellowsnow
Would you guys hold HNU long right now? I know it's probably going down a bit more, but I'm ready to buy into it soon

no way in hell

DJ_NAV

11-22-2009, 07:08 PM

I would buy HNU... i have a strong feeling that gas will recover going into 2010.

djayz

11-23-2009, 02:19 AM

Stupid gold just die already. I've been holding HGD for over a month now and even though the value hasn't been slaughtered it's not enough to make me want to sell because gold is just getting over bought like no tomorrow.

Looks like today is the day when HGD goes below 3.50 and the tsx sets a new record for the year :banghead:

SilverRex

11-23-2009, 07:28 AM

ok, pretty big reversal for the dollar to start the week, lets just get over with the oil chart first.

nothing new here.

the trend channel with oil remains and looks corrective on every dip. trade the channel until it breaks above 80.50 for an upside breakout towards 85.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil112309.jpg

ok lets look at gold. it appears gold never was able to make new grounds lower and never broke out of the megaphone pattern which suggest its terminal. the sub wave iii of III according to this count posted is not finished. but we are quite near even if it does not finish today. the next major resistance level would be around 1189 based on the 681-1006 rise. it would be logical if gold can begin a sub wave iv correction now breaking below the widening wedge pattern. there is now two areas of gap that needs to be filled eventually in the 1118 and 1150 area. I believe once it tops out for good in this sub wave iii, it will trace out all the gap then make a move up for a final sub wave v of III.

clearly in the medium term gold remains bullish. but with this terminal move, every time gold is near the top of the wedge channel a short opportunity appears to be the right play.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold112309.jpg

ok and the dollar. I suggested that in order for the dollar to make a serious breakout it needs to cross 76, unfortunately not only did it not do that, it also took out the 75.20 support which now puts the latest count or rally corrective. with that said, dollar is now ready to retest the low and even make new lows.

however with stoch heavily oversold. I am just not buying any further sell off this morning. my expecation is the down side for today will be limited and we should get a bit of a bounce for the dollar . I'll give it a day or two to see how things hold up. our eyes on next major support near 74.3 will be closely watched.

also the dollar has its own gap to fill up to around 75.5, perhaps we will get a rally to this area then get knocked down for a new dollar low.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar112309.jpg

cosmok

11-23-2009, 08:25 AM

Looks like shorts are going to get crushed today, NG may be a buy soon (there hasn't been 3 consecutive up days in over a month)

troyl

11-23-2009, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by yellowsnow
Would you guys hold HNU long right now? I know it's probably going down a bit more, but I'm ready to buy into it soon

If i was going long term say 6 months+ I would hold GAS. Short term HNU.

Dinan

11-23-2009, 08:36 AM

damn, look at KGN:nut:

troyl

11-23-2009, 08:37 AM

CLL keeping its legs from friday afternoon, finally some action.

KappaSigma

11-23-2009, 08:39 AM

Go GWY! Just broke its 52 week high. Looking good was the drill has broken the ground! If its the next VEN, drinks on me!

997TT

11-23-2009, 08:40 AM

I'm lovin kgn.
Bam

e36bmw///

11-23-2009, 08:42 AM

yoda124

11-23-2009, 08:55 AM

tck.b blast off to another 52 week high :clap:

SilverRex

11-23-2009, 08:56 AM

I expect the dollar now to make a gap filling rally that should temporary put a top in gold

broken_legs

11-23-2009, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by troyl

If i was going long term say 6 months+ I would hold GAS. Short term HNU.

I'll take the opposite side of that trade this week.

Just bought 950 shares of HND.

SilverRex

11-23-2009, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by broken_legs

I'll take the opposite side of that trade this week.

Just bought 950 shares of HND.

for your sake I hope NG just keeps tanking

longer term I Believe it will have to head back to the low 3s

but in the mean time, what worries me is that oil's price movement of the last few weeks appears corrective in nature and is ready to punch higher into 85+ area.

so while NG remains bearish, I wont be surprise to see a bit of a strong rally for NG before making another wave downwards.

so be careful.

Dinan

11-23-2009, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
I'm lovin kgn.
Bam

damn, hope you still holding....

where u find these guy lol

got any more :D

Dinan

11-23-2009, 09:28 AM

Keegan Resources Inc. Announces $36.0 Million "Bought Deal" Financing
Posted by mincho2008
Saturday, 21 November 2009

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UNITED STATES NEWSWIRE SERVICES OR FOR DISSEMINATION IN THE UNITED STATES.

Keegan Resources Inc. (the "Keegan" or the "Corporation") (TSX:KGN)(NYSE Amex:KGN) is pleased to announce that it has entered into an agreement with Dundee Securities Corporation and a syndicate of underwriters, including Clarus Securities Inc. and Canaccord Capital Corporation, (the "Underwriters"), under which the Underwriters have agreed to purchase on an underwritten basis 6,100,000 common shares (the "Common Shares") of Keegan at a price of $5.90 per Common Share for total gross proceeds to Keegan of $35,990,000. Under the agreement, the Underwriters have an over-allotment option to purchase up to an additional 915,000 Common Shares, which if exercised in full will result in gross proceeds of $41,388,500. The proceeds of the offering shall be used primarily for general and administrative expenses and for working capital.

The Common Shares to be sold under this offering will be offered by way of a short form prospectus in the Provinces of British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario and the Common Shares to be sold under this offering will be offered in the United States on a private placement basis pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirements of the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The offering is scheduled to close on December 9, 2009 and is subject to certain conditions including, but not limited to, the receipt of all necessary approvals, including the approval of the Toronto Stock Exchange, the NYSE Amex and other applicable securities regulatory authorities.

This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy nor shall there be any sale of the securities in any state in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. The securities have not been registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from registration requirements.

SilverRex

11-23-2009, 09:33 AM

my expecation in oil
anything under 78 is a buy, a bit of a small gap there as well.

but if oil breaks above 80.50, wait for a retest of 80 then go for 85

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oiltarget-1.jpg

997TT

11-23-2009, 09:52 AM

Im in KGN at $6.1

i wish i got in at $5...lol

Dinan, will keep you posted on any plays i buy. Even GTE, i'm up just under 8% so no complaints from me there.

We all things just dont go up and never look back ... have to decide where to take some profits on KGN and look to rebuy. After such a run up, i figure some consolidation/profit taking is on the horizon

broken_legs

11-23-2009, 11:53 AM

The last time Bill yields turned negative (in essence investors paying the Government to hold their money for them) was in the days after the Lehman bankruptcy, when the entire world was about to blow up. So why did Bill yield for January maturity just turn negative once again? In other words, why are investors suddenly running for the hills? As Dow Jones reports, January and February bills hit a yield of -0.03% earlier. Some explanations have to do with Bill scarcity, as nobody wants to be exposed to anything beyond 3 months down the curve, let alone 1 year. However, the fact that bond investors may not be buying into the whole recovery BS (or just realize that there is nobody willing to roll near-dated treasurys into longer-tenor pieces of paper) and are once again running scared and willing to pay Ben Bernanke to hold their money for them should be very, very troubling. Additionally, could there be something more pressing and/or catalytic? We have not heard peep from any of the big banks in a while...

Dinan

11-23-2009, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
Im in KGN at $6.1

i wish i got in at $5...lol

Dinan, will keep you posted on any plays i buy. Even GTE, i'm up just under 8% so no complaints from me there.

We all things just dont go up and never look back ... have to decide where to take some profits on KGN and look to rebuy. After such a run up, i figure some consolidation/profit taking is on the horizon

thanks... i'm looking into GTE too, just don't want buy now, stoch is overbought... seems like it's starting to turn down... i'll look to get in at the 20SMA at about 5.20 or soo... but will see how it looks.....

same with kgn....

do you trade any US stocks?

Euro_Trash

11-23-2009, 01:11 PM

Anybody buying oil right now?

yoda124

11-23-2009, 01:18 PM

s&p can't hold above that 1110 level.Looking for a drop until end of the month then a xmas rally.

badlivertt

11-23-2009, 02:04 PM

^glad you think so. i loaded up hxd with a tight stop a couple hours ago.

Dinan

11-23-2009, 07:46 PM

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1340313179&play=1

asp integra

11-23-2009, 11:58 PM

last year i did a econ project on a company called Teck Cominco, at the time the price was $3/share and i was thinking about putting some money in, i wish i did, because as of today the share price is $35.30!:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

max_boost

11-24-2009, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by asp integra
last year i did a econ project on a company called Teck Cominco, at the time the price was $3/share and i was thinking about putting some money in, i wish i did, because as of today the share price is $35.30!:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

Don't worry buddy, you would have been gone when it hit $6 or $9 or $12. You wouldn't be holding it until $35. :devil:

broken_legs

11-24-2009, 04:56 AM

Originally posted by Dinan
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1340313179&play=1

When did rick start hosting fast money?

If you believe in the money pyramid Gold will go up if the dollar goes up too.

SilverRex

11-24-2009, 07:19 AM

ok so oil came down and filled the gap just under 78. it got as low as 77 I would suggest the 75-77 area as a good buy area in anticipation of a breakout to the upside.

with stoch resetting from oversold. now we wait for price to retest 80 and hopefully this multiweek trend channel is about to be finished. Any sudden or further weakness is viewed as a buying opportunity.

While it is difficult to time it correctly but once we take out 80.50 we should be able to retest 82 quickly perhaps a retest at 80 then shoot for our projected target at 85

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil112409.jpg

gold while every time it is at the upper trend line in this ascending wedge pattern the shorting was a good bet, but gold refuse to drop out of its range, and it hasnt even retrace the lower support.

with two gaps in the 1120s and 1150s area that needs to be filled. it is all so close to A top I'll suggest anything above 1170 would be a good shorting area and the next major move once a top is established to be down that will take it right back to at least the 1120s area. Yes that is 50 dollars so we will see how long gold can hug the upper channel. things may get intresting to the downside but first it will have to take out the 50 EMA at around 1160 first.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold112409.jpg

and finally the dollar, after the dollar made a reversal off its own up trend line, it tried to fill the gap above 75.5, unfortunately it did not fill it completely. with price again retesting the trend line just under 75. look for this as a make or break. If price can hold and close above 75.20 we may have a second shot at making one more dash above 75.5, but if 75 is taking out, look for a retest of prior lows near 74.70 and perhaps new lows.

hopefully this would signal oil's breakout advance.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar112409.jpg

997TT

11-24-2009, 08:42 AM

Just bought HOU at $76.80 oil ...

from what i'm seeing 76.20 is a decent stop but i'm not sure i want my stop to be that tight.

so i put in a stop at $9.00 HOU. I can stomach a 0.35 loss if oil should tank.

broken_legs

11-24-2009, 09:21 AM

So whaadda ya guys think is gonna happen when gas inventories are up again?

:dunno:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.gif

My read is if inventories are still gaining going into December, NG is screwed. Inventories need to reverse the trend and start heading lower to stop NG from going to a nickel

SilverRex

11-24-2009, 09:34 AM

oil bounced off the lower part of the trend channel , bought another position in hou.

let see if this is the base to shoot for a breakout

997TT

11-24-2009, 09:58 AM

fkn WEE ... pos.
should've waited to rebuy

Bisklimpkit

11-24-2009, 10:14 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
fkn WEE ... pos.
should've waited to rebuy

So what do you figure is the reason for the drop on this one? Where do you think it's headed? I still think that we'll see it back up to 2.40 range not too long from now, but I sure didn't see this dip coming.

cosmok

11-24-2009, 10:28 AM

Is everyone loading up on HOU? Maybe I should reverse my position :rofl:

mr2mike

11-24-2009, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by broken_legs

My read is if inventories are still gaining going into December, NG is screwed. Inventories need to reverse the trend and start heading lower to stop NG from going to a nickel

Praying for a VERY cold VERY long winter for down east since there's no news of hurricaines in the gulf.

I'm thinking the breaking point is about the end of December around xmas time. If storage is still peaking, then gas prices will remain low. But from the chart I've seen (plot on gas storage through the past 20 years, it follows the same general trend (there's a couple years where it didn't) But generally, Around the end of December is where the storage levels will start to change (if they do). My opinion.

Euro_Trash

11-24-2009, 10:49 AM

Come on oil!

broken_legs

11-24-2009, 11:09 AM

Originally posted by mr2mike

Praying for a VERY cold VERY long winter for down east since there's no news of hurricaines in the gulf.

I'm thinking the breaking point is about the end of December around xmas time. If storage is still peaking, then gas prices will remain low. But from the chart I've seen (plot on gas storage through the past 20 years, it follows the same general trend (there's a couple years where it didn't) But generally, Around the end of December is where the storage levels will start to change (if they do). My opinion.

I'm praying for a warm winter with lots of snow on the mountains :)

skandalouz_08

11-24-2009, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by 997TT
fkn WEE ... pos.
should've waited to rebuy

I didn't expect the drop either but had a stop set just in case which got taken out last Fri. I think it will go back up, but I'm going to wait a bit before getting back into that.

cosmok

11-24-2009, 12:34 PM

Looks like someone got the NG report early

Edit: or with the expiration of NGZ9 today there could be short covering..

997TT

11-24-2009, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by Bisklimpkit

So what do you figure is the reason for the drop on this one? Where do you think it's headed? I still think that we'll see it back up to 2.40 range not too long from now, but I sure didn't see this dip coming.

beats me ... i'm gonna hold and watch it carefully.

trying to find a good entry point into RBI ...hopefully something sub $15

KappaSigma

11-24-2009, 02:31 PM

Come on GWY keep pulling back for a few days so I can rebuy again!

KappaSigma

11-24-2009, 02:41 PM

Anyone know of a good site that dicloses a venture stocks short interest?

Rat Fink

11-24-2009, 06:36 PM

KappaSigma

11-24-2009, 07:03 PM

Originally posted by Rat Fink

http://infoventure.tsx.com/TSXVenture/TSXVentureHttpController?SaveView=true&GetPage=LcdbSearch

Short interest for GWY has increased from 368,200 shares on Oct 31 to 605,700 shares on Nov 15

Thank you!

SilverRex

11-25-2009, 07:25 AM

ok so oil continues to be within the trend channel like always. while the pattern suggest the next major move is a breakout to the upside, we just have to see what happens since the dollar has just touched off near a major support which I'll explain in a bit.

if the dollar does rally one would assume oil will drop but since oil is already near the low of the trend channel, we can only stick to the rule that with the oil chart, the next move is back up with stoch over sold. who know what the inventory numbers will bring.

I would suggest going long on oil with stops below 75. if 75 is taken out the next place to go long would be in the 74 area, since you can then revise the pattern as a megaphone pattern as well. and if the dollar does rally, that may just be the possibly that we may see under 75 for a moment.

but again just sticking to this multiweek pattern for oil, the entire structure looks corrective. the 85 target continues to be favorable at this point in time.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil112509.jpg

for gold, I mention inorder for the larger correction to take place first it has to take out 1160, unfortunately it did not and therefore gold continues to hug the upper trend line to just over 1180. Now remember based on the 681-1006 price projection, the next most likely resistance is near 1189. so we are dam close.

with a bit of a triangle pattern breakout to the upside (marked in purple) I would favor the down side with the upside limited not much higher than 1180. and who knows we might get a fake blow off breakout towards 1200 then correct.. I continue to stress the gap in the 1120 and 1150 area will need to be filled and I Would imagine the larger wave IV correction will fulfill this in due time. so expect a limited upside then a larger down side coming.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold112509.jpg

finally the dollar I mention the dollar is in its own trend channel, however I also suggested if the dollar does not get back above 75.20 then we are ready to make new lows. and sure enough the dollar broke the trend channel to the down side. and with that yes it was bearish, to the point it made new lows at 74.40 abouts. with the next major support at around 74.30 couple with the fact that its over sold and on the higher time frame there is a trend line that I mention it had finally hit. for the short term I expect the dollar to rally back and retest the breakout point near 75. technically the play would be once a retest is in, dollar short will resume pushing it back down.

so we will see just how strong the low at 74.4 is. after a good swing trade up, retest near 75, then drop again. we will then wait for confirmation if the dollar is to decline further, or will finally make a more noticable advance. My own bull count requires dollar to now retake above 75 and also close above 76 to confirm this. until then, dollar continues to be bearish.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar112509.jpg

997TT

11-25-2009, 08:14 AM

Good thing gold is up to 1180. Let's take 1200 out this week. Need hgu/kgn to make up for Wee's disasterous week.

SilverRex

11-25-2009, 08:19 AM

ok so let take alook at the dollar count so far.

based on this and I am sure many would agree, we have quite the 5th wave extension happening.

if this count is correct, then the dollar is to make ways towards 73. there fore look to short on rallies especially if it gets back to 75.

for my own I would say if the dollar can recapture 76, that may turn the corner but most EW experts would wait until it takes out 77 instead.

Currently the dollar is in a mini wave iii of sub wave (v) of major (V)

why target 73? because the sub wave (i) was close to 4 pts. and typically wave V equals wave I, and so 77-4 gives us about 73

anyways obviously I'm hoping for a dollar rally taking us back to about 79-81, but right now dollar indeed remains bearish which suggest gold/dollar has more upside coming

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarcount.jpg

cosmok

11-25-2009, 08:44 AM

Where'd the momentum for crude go? USD goes down 50¢ and it moves sideways :zzz:

SilverRex

11-25-2009, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by cosmok
Where'd the momentum for crude go? USD goes down 50¢ and it moves sideways :zzz:

well oil is quite heavily over sold I'm thinking it will hug around 75 area until the dollar is ready to make another wave of sell off.

cosmok

11-25-2009, 09:31 AM

Crude inventories up 1.0 million barrels
Gasoline inventories up 1.0 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels

Expectations were a lot higher

cosmok

11-25-2009, 10:28 AM

Here comes oils run

mr2mike

11-25-2009, 10:53 AM

Need advice on my HNU. I was in at $9.40 and it's busted out of the resistance it had from a few days ago. Yet, I missed the boat when it hit $10 last time, then pulled back.
Anyone's thoughts? I think this up for NG is short lived? Opinions?

Looking strongly at oil now too, thanks cosmok.

cosmok

11-25-2009, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by mr2mike
Need advice on my HNU. I was in at $9.40 and it's busted out of the resistance it had from a few days ago. Yet, I missed the boat when it hit $10 last time, then pulled back.
Anyone's thoughts? I think this up for NG is short lived? Opinions?

Looking strongly at oil now too, thanks cosmok.

I'd say set some stops so some of your profit is protected, the NG report comes out in 4 minutes and it could really go either way

Edit: Only a 2Bcf build, you'll do well today. I think top point for HNU would be another 10% or mid to low 11's (around 5.30 for natural gas price)