Official Short-term Investments Thread

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by troyl


Ouch! Today has gotta sting a bit.

Yeah lots of red today, down almost $1000 today, was up almost 600 yesterday. So whaddya gonna do :dunno:

[broken_legs]

i think NG just topped, so i just bought some more

another 200 HND :D

[cosmok]

Originally posted by troyl


Ouch! Today has gotta sting a bit.
:cry: It sucks to not have locked in profit, that's for sure.

[SilverRex]

gold and euro is about to top out

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by cosmok

:cry: It sucks to not have locked in profit, that's for sure.


I work nights, its hard to day trade... I should be in bed right now actually, but I just wanted to make sure what i think is going to happen happens :)

Also im not in this trade for 15-20% im in it for %100 hehe

[cosmok]

^^Good luck man, what are you basing your readings on?

[bigbadboss101]

Ok, I am going to South America for 10 days. Holding HOU, HND, RIM and WAMUQ.

Safe to hold the ETF's or should I wipe clean before the trip?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by cosmok
^^Good luck man, what are you basing your readings on?

the COT

Fundamentals

TA on the broader market

I know they are bat shit crazy drilling up a shale gas storm in the US right now.

EDIT:

I love paint - Heres how I feel about NG:
http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/ng20091125-1.jpg


This is looking promising now, just need a little volume....

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/CMTTO-1.jpg

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bigbadboss101
Ok, I am going to South America for 10 days. Holding HOU, HND, RIM and WAMUQ.

Safe to hold the ETF's or should I wipe clean before the trip?

ive lost thousands while in mexico, pulled my hair out in an internet cafe in egypt

it's not worth it! May as well stay home if you're already worrying about worrying about it

[broken_legs]

http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/11/17/saupload_nat_gas_vs_ung_20091113.jpg

[cosmok]

^not looking good so far

[SilverRex]

euro just had a blowoff top, I believe its done, ready to make a move back down

gold just got near 1189 I think that too has put in A top

[djayz]

Originally posted by SilverRex
euro just had a blowoff top, I believe its done, ready to make a move back down

gold just got near 1189 I think that too has put in A top

:eek: I hope you're right about gold this time. I've been holding HGD for so long now that it feels like I haven't done any trading in months!

997tt I'm sorry to say it since youre in HGU but I hope you can lock in your profits and make some money on the downturn that I have been waiting to bank in on for a long time now.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex
euro just had a blowoff top, I believe its done, ready to make a move back down

gold just got near 1189 I think that too has put in A top
Nice call on oil by the way :thumbsup: always appreciate your calls

[mr2mike]

Out on HNU. I'll wait to see what tomorrow brings. Hoping for a gap down or pull back.

[DJ_NAV]

I am close to selling HGU... I am thinking maybe it can hit 16$ before the end of the day. Do you guys think it can?

[mr2mike]

Not by end of day but I think it has potential for another run.

I just used my TFSA w/Royal Bank. Anyone have experience with RBC investing? Are they slow at putting trades in or what?!?! My TD Waterhouse is almost instant on notifying if you've sold or bought. RBC, I've been refreshing for 10min with a price that's for sure been holding so I can get that sell order in at the limit price I stated. It's pissing me off, if I didn't sell, I don't wanna be chasing this stock down!!!

[cosmok]

Have you agreed to all of the exchanges terms of service? You have to do that to get live quotes. After that go to the trade tab and click order status, they go through almost instantly.

[mr2mike]

F'ing whore at RBC said, she set it all up and I'm good to go. Second time this lady's screwed me on something (last it was her promise to drop my account fees on savings acc't which she didn't). Looks like I'm going in to talk to the branch manager.
If my trade didn't go through, I'm gonna be livid!

Just for everyone else to accept these agreements you go to Home > edit profile > manage US & Can Agreements (near bottom of screen).
Then go through and accept them all.

I knew something was off when she said there's nothing else to agree to or sign. For sure TD made me sign these at the branch.

/rant.

[s_havinga]

why didn't you just get a waterhouse TFSA?

[mr2mike]

In the long run, I should have. I use Waterhouse to trade US stocks and I felt I could more easily use RBC with a TFSA to trade CAN stocks as I believe you can only trade Canadian stocks with the TFSA.
I use RBC for daily banking so I can move money in and out easier than I can with Waterhouse.

Oh well, lesson learned. I still might move the account

[Bisklimpkit]

Originally posted by mr2mike
...as I believe you can only trade Canadian stocks with the TFSA.


I have a TFSA through Questrade and can trade anything I want through it. Is RBC or TD trying to limit it to being only Canadian?

[mr2mike]

That's what the girl at RBC told me. Damn, if I find out you can trade US... wow.

Going to do some research on that. Thanks for the input guys.

[Euro_Trash]

I've traded US stocks with my TD TFSA:dunno:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Meback]

Originally posted by djayz


:eek: I hope you're right about gold this time. I've been holding HGD for so long now that it feels like I haven't done any trading in months!

997tt I'm sorry to say it since youre in HGU but I hope you can lock in your profits and make some money on the downturn that I have been waiting to bank in on for a long time now.


Lol, Same here!! I got no money left to average down, so i m just sitting on it, its good to know i m not the only one left on the boat.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by mr2mike
That's what the girl at RBC told me. Damn, if I find out you can trade US... wow.

Going to do some research on that. Thanks for the input guys.
I've traded OTC, US and Canadian stocks through mine on RBC

[broken_legs]

Dubai postpones debt payments oops

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJt_l0bIKgJI&pos=2

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
yes you can trade US stocks, but the constant exchange rates is a bitch

constant? I use to having to do that every US trade was reverted back to canadian dollar, but then I realize this and called my bank to leave my money in the US funded account. and since been trading without it being exchanged over every time I release a position.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex


constant? I use to having to do that every US trade was reverted back to canadian dollar, but then I realize this and called my bank to leave my money in the US funded account. and since been trading without it being exchanged over every time I release a position.

Would you say the strong reversal in Natural Gas yesterday was a overreaction to economic news? The chart looks like it's turned bullish

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Not by end of day but I think it has potential for another run.

I just used my TFSA w/Royal Bank. Anyone have experience with RBC investing? Are they slow at putting trades in or what?!?! My TD Waterhouse is almost instant on notifying if you've sold or bought. RBC, I've been refreshing for 10min with a price that's for sure been holding so I can get that sell order in at the limit price I stated. It's pissing me off, if I didn't sell, I don't wanna be chasing this stock down!!!

I use RBC Direct Investing with Dashboard. Its kind of slow sometimes, kind of meant for beginners to trading. Waterhouse is a much better platform. RBC typically works much better on Internet Explorer but to get good up to the date numbers I use stockstream, a great program to supplement my RBC usage.

[997TT]

Gl to hgd holders. I personally am close to 100% invested and although I'm not oblvious to another correction/pullback I think the mkts rally higher. I sold hgu yesterday afternoon at $15.7X and just rebought it this morning at $15.48. I will continue to add to my gold position by flipping hgu while holding G, DGC, and KGN as MT plays. Remember though I suck ass when it comes to investing so you'd be wise to do the opposite of me. Lol

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by 997TT
Remember though I suck ass when it comes to investing so you'd be wise to do the opposite of me. Lol


:D

Thanks for the RBC TFSA advice. I have lodged a complaint with the branch manager and will follow up. The information I was supplied was totally wrong and other commitments they promised were not fulfilled until I complained in writing.

HNU: I expected it to pull back a lot more than it did. Staying out of it for the time being as I can't see where it may be going. Not in HND either.

[SilverRex]

ok I away this morning but to recap as expected from yesterday the dollar was retracing to retes thte previous broken support which is now at 75

so far so good. the dollar was rejected perfectly at 75.

now my expecation couple with over bought on stoch is that the dollar will resume its drop

the only catch is the dollar did touched off the major support at 74.30 area. but since the trend remains bearish, I wont call that a bottom until the dollar can re take above 75 as well as 76.

until then, expect further weakness ahead for the dollar. which bolds well for oil's chance for a breakout towardfs 85

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar112609.jpg

[Bisklimpkit]

Originally posted by SilverRex


now my expecation couple with over bought on stoch is that the dollar will resume its drop

the only catch is the dollar did touched off the major support at 74.30 area. but since the trend remains bearish, I wont call that a bottom until the dollar can re take above 75 as well as 76.

until then, expect further weakness ahead for the dollar. which bolds well for oil's chance for a breakout towardfs 85


Which ETF based on the USD would I get into if expecting the USD to continue dropping? I'm thinking it's HDD but I've confused myself...:confused:

[KappaSigma]

VEN halted right before the bell. HMMMMM

[superboyazn]

legal issues for Ven..

[Criticull]

Originally posted by Bisklimpkit


Which ETF based on the USD would I get into if expecting the USD to continue dropping? I'm thinking it's HDD but I've confused myself...:confused:

HDD is correct.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by superboyazn
legal issues for Ven..

yup ahaha. Talk about greedy people wo optioned them the land. VEN pays all the poayments and the other party UNDER contract tries to not take the payment to break the contract. lol

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Bisklimpkit


Which ETF based on the USD would I get into if expecting the USD to continue dropping? I'm thinking it's HDD but I've confused myself...:confused:

I'd be buying HDU if anything right now.

Safe Haven trade coming back big time

Futures are down over 300 points on the dow right now.

Gold getting clobbered

Oil down to 73 dollars! There goes the Channel y'all been trading on........ Now NG needs to catch up on the way down.

I'm glad I bought this yesterday: HJD.TO - Emerging markets BEAR fund. Looking at international markets China is down over 5% right now!!!

Is this it??? Is this the big one???

I've been waiting for this BS market to crash forever :guns:

[djayz]

^
I hope this is it, been hanging on the bear side for this whole rally :banghead:

Even though gold collapsed to 1140, its made a comeback so far to 1160 which has me wondering if by the end of tomorrow we end up even or maybe positive today.

Didn't know about the emerging markets etfs, they sound interesting...any leverage on those or just 1x etfs?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by djayz
^
I hope this is it, been hanging on the bear side for this whole rally :banghead:

Even though gold collapsed to 1140, its made a comeback so far to 1160 which has me wondering if by the end of tomorrow we end up even or maybe positive today.

Didn't know about the emerging markets etfs, they sound interesting...any leverage on those or just 1x etfs?

I'm pretty sure its a 2x.

Fuck Me - If the market somehow pulls of a big december rally I am going to be pissed.


Goldman Sachs was out yesterday saying that December is always the best month - Christmas rally - and that December rallys are always the strongest on a strong year


EDIT:

HJD - bid/ask is already at 18.00, bought in at 14.80ish yesterday

Just need brazil to crash with mexico today and that will do it :)

[SilverRex]

ok the fun has finally begun, but lets get oil out of the way. yes oil appeas to have broken down from its trend channel, however the next support around 73 did help push price back up (remember oil was struggling to break above 73.3? a while ago? well its not providing the resistance. with a very bullish hammer off the 4 hour and 1 hour chart. at least for today the sell off should be done. and price should slowly head higher. but is this the end of oil's run? not quite I'll explain with the dollar chart. oil is still very much in an uptrend since even price touching as low as 72 can still be seen as corrective (a near 61% fibo retracement from the 65 to 82 move. There is only one thing that can confirm oil's demise and that is if the dollar's recent rally is for real.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil112709.jpg

and for gold, I have long shouted that its only a matter of time until gold pulls a larger correction. we got that. and we got it beautifully. It even filled the recent gap lefted off at 1150. Gold retraced all the way to the bottom of the megaphone channel near 1140 but on initial impact, many are viewing the low of the channel as a perfect buying opportunity and short covering and so price and since rallied pretty hard. However there are a few things one needs to consider

For bulls.
we may have just completed a sub wave iv of v correction and are now beginning to push for a final leg back up. 1140 must hold otherwise further weakness ahead.

For bears take out 1140 and you will be laughing. also remember 681-1006 price projection has it that gold should top out at 1189 which I suggested a few days ago, price was completely rejected off the 1190 area. So this could potentially lead to a very powerful reversal. but for the short term we could have a bit of a strong retracement to the upside and perhaps initiate a failed wave v pattern then off to the down side we go.

Also didnt cyclist forecast a low for gold end of november? This could be scary, if this timing is correct, then either gold just made a bottom at 1140 and a multi month rally begins here. Or we have a top in place instead and down we go until new year.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold112709.jpg

ok the dollar, in a perfect world, the resistance off 75 should have push the dollar back and down and onto new lows. but a surprise breakout to the upside over 75 has lead to the resurging bulls. Now the dollar is in no mans plan. meaning we need to see how it unfolds. remember the gap that needed to be filled just under 75.60 but didnt quite get that on the 23rd? well price just filled the gap completely and price has since came back down. Now that the dollar is over bought, we have to see which way it will go. to confirm a bull trend reversal , the dollar needs to hold above 75 then retest 76. breaking above 76 should imo be the signal to trigger high prices in the coming days. this will go in line with the dollar having to have tested not only the 74.30 support but also rallied off hard in an impulsive fashion with the uptrend line marked on the weekly.

however if 75 gives away, then this would line up that oil is in fact still has a shot at a breakout to the upside (85+) and gold's wave iv correction being completed and looking for a final 5th wave top. The dollar could then be looking at the 73 target since the latest down move in the dollar should have been a stronger sub wave iii of v of V.

for bulls

dollar rallied off the daily/weekly trendline (shown on the chart)
dollar's latest rally is very impulsive
dollar recaptured above 75
confirmation = brekabove 76 with sustainability.

for bears

dollar filled gap under 75.60 and ready to head back down.
dollar remains bearish until 76 is taken out.
dollar must retake under 75
confirmation, take out just under 74.70 to invalidate the latest up move in EW terms.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar112709.jpg

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarweekly-1.jpg

[SilverRex]

Has gold topped? it appears we have just completed the price projected target reaching as far as 1195 of the triangle breakout

and in EW terms, triangles are either a wave iv correction or wave B of an ABC correction. Clearly we have fully achieved the price projection based off the initial run from 681 to 1006.

stoch on the weekly is now over bought and ready to turn down, and the monthly chart has the potential to suggest a negative divergence

what will be critical is how we close today which could suggest a candle top on the weekly. again bearish.

if this is the case that means the market has to correctly siginifcantly from this point on and the dollar will continue to rally. this would mean we have taken the bull path for the dollar.

but unless the dollar can prove me wrong by taking above 76, I'll say short the dollar until otherwise.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldweekly.jpg

[cosmok]

Black Friday indeed, shorts are finally paying off :clap:

[997TT]

going to get hammered today ... good thing i'm leavig for vegas sunday.

will need a few dances/drinks to make me forget HND and others.

[SilverRex]

for a bear count this is what I expect of the dollar

confirmation break below 75

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarbear.jpg

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
going to get hammered today ... good thing i'm leavig for vegas sunday.

will need a few dances/drinks to make me forget HND and others.

you still have you long stocks??

what are you currently holding?

[cosmok]

Anyone else watching MXI.V? I had some at $0.18 but sold at $0.24 and it's around $0.78 now :banghead:

[SilverRex]

oil regain about 3 dollar talk about a strong recovery, hopefully this is the path to 85 oil

dollar looks ready for a wave iii of iii of V which should be strong

[997TT]

Dinan,

Ya I'm still long on a lot of equities. I own a basket of almost 20 stocks and am about 95% invested.

Am thinking of selling some stocks before I take off as I don't plan on checking the markets while I'm vacation. Only the risky 2x etf's. Haha

[DRKM]

Has anyone been paying attention to the second largest economy in the world? The Nikki hit 10.5 and plummeted from there its now at 9081. That is increadably bearish.

But I do think this stimulus rally has ended yet, every thing is still gang busters and risky assets.

[SilverRex]

oil has recoverd greatly, looking good.
almost recoverd 4 dollars.

I have added a position with hou at 8.61

averaging out my position to about 75.5 oil

looking for 85 oil target.

[cosmok]

Lets go CCJ! One hell of a day today

[Dinan]

Originally posted by 997TT
Dinan,

Ya I'm still long on a lot of equities. I own a basket of almost 20 stocks and am about 95% invested.

Am thinking of selling some stocks before I take off as I don't plan on checking the markets while I'm vacation. Only the risky 2x etf's. Haha

oh yeah, 20?? damn... do you mind posting what stocks ?? :D

thanks :thumbsup:


oh yeah, have a good vacation.. hope you have better luck in the casinos :bigpimp:

[997TT]

My broker manages the majority of my money. We own cnq, su, tck.b, pow, lif.un, bac, imn, pdn, G, dgc, trp, pow, apa, enb ... Fk drawing a blank as he pretty much does his thing and I let him

I have my daytrade acct where I currently hold kgn, hgu, wee, gte

[bwling]

Wow, the fluctuation in Nat Gas this morning is unreal :eek:

HNU's range 9.51-10.99 :nut:

[SilverRex]

looks like USD/CAD just completed an ABC correction and broken a mini uptrend line meaning, resumption of dollar weakness

gold/oil should move up again

[cosmok]

Originally posted by bwling
Wow, the fluctuation in Nat Gas this morning is unreal :eek:

HNU's range 9.51-10.99 :nut:
Glad I dumped my HND this morning and picked up HNU. NG looks like it's continuing the 3-5 week trend and the trend is up

[bwling]

^ I hear ya. Wish I would have picked up some more HNU as well. I'm just glad I didn't dump it in a panic.

[mr2mike]

Damn, I was away from the computer for a bit and missed that run! Too late now...

[SilverRex]

alright a new week, lets see how she goes.

looking at oil while we had quite the breakdown because of the dubai situation, however that doesnt deter our bias that the next major move should be up. and because of that, we got out support to hold around 73. Looking at the wave count, we should have just completed a sub wave iv of V correction and soon to make a final thrust towards my 85 target min. of course it will require a breakout above 80.50

critical make or break should be that oil should break below 71.50 or it could force a recount of this current structure.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil113009.jpg


gold is similar to oil but appears even more bullish as it is in a megaphone within a larger megaphone pattern, because this pattern is ascending, it suggest that its terminal in the longer term. short term the 1140 support appears to be a sub wave iv of (v) of {v} completed. If 1140 does not hold, look for the next major support near 1070-1080 to hold. That would be our alt count wave iv instead. however give gold's bullish momentum, 1140 should be the short term bottom.

we are still waiting for gold to take out 1180 and force further upside.
make or break is if gold takes out below 1070 that will destroy our current bullish out look.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold113009.jpg

finally the dollar, last friday as the dollar surged I suggested until we got confirmation it could go either way, but my bet is that there is further weakness on the dollar given I believe the dollar was just making a correctional sub wave ii of (v) of {V} and if that is so, then it was a perfect shorting opprotunity and so far proves to be the correct play. With stoch over sold, and a bit of a gap to be filled after this weekend. I expect a mini rally to begin the day then down she goes for sub wave iii of (v) of {V}

make or break is just under 76 which is a prior wave (iv), taking this out would turn the dollar bullish. but until that happens, look for short on rally this week.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar113009.jpg

[broken_legs]

whoa abu dhabi stock market plunge....

NG down 0.20...

:dunno:


Who knows what will happen today... Heres some interesting headlines:

TD Bank - More US real Estate exposure than previously thought (changed way they classify loans to make it look better than it is)...

Dubai - PLUNGE

asia - recovering losses

US flat futures

Obama - pledges more mortgage support for deadbeat homeowners (extending stimulus and printing more money)

[cosmok]

Anyone know what's going on with CCJ.to?

[KappaSigma]

Another nice liuttle GWY flip. Bought at 1.15 and sold for 1.23.

[SilverRex]

ok so yesterday while things didnt quite exploded in our favor, it none the less move in the direction we anticipated.

oil got above 78 and is currently begining to run into over bought considitions on the lower time frame. expecation is a bit of a pull back then move higher.

key area now lies for a another attampt to breakout above 80, once we do hopefully that clears the path to 85 for good.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil120109.jpg

for gold, suggested it went higher and so we did but we only punched to about 1199-1200 which have completed a mini 5 wave up. while the 1140 we can label as sub wave iv, key support now lies at 1165. if the 1165-1180 area is taking out, then this will produce the purple alternate path that a larger correction is in play. the larger ABC correction would suggest a C possibly hitting the 1150 area or possibly lower towards 1100 so caution is advised.

[http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold120109.jpg

and the dollar, which played out perfectly. now only did the dollar refilled the gap it also retested the trend line that was previously broken as expected and completely reversed back down. expecation again begining to run into over sold conditions but bias is still down to retest the low if not new lows.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar120109.jpg

[broken_legs]

NG down another 0.2 :dunno:

Plan is to be short for 2 more weeks atleast... May update plan on thursday

[mr2mike]

I'm going the other way broken_legs. HNU is rising nicely bought at $8.84. But am planning on being out by days end unless something major happens.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by mr2mike
I'm going the other way broken_legs. HNU is rising nicely bought at $8.84. But am planning on being out by days end unless something major happens.

Looks like that will be a good play for the session :thumbsup:, looks like oil is running out of steam, anyone shorting here?

[djayz]

Wow HGD finally gets kicked in the nads, I can't believe gold and the markets are going as crazy as they are I completely did not expect this.

Looks like I'll be taking up another HGD position at 3.60. Hopefully it can bounce up to 4.00 again or I'm screwed :banghead:

[SilverRex]

gold is currently in a bullish trend. buying HGD may not be the right play

[djayz]

Originally posted by SilverRex
gold is currently in a bullish trend. buying HGD may not be the right play

:( too late order just filled at 3.60, definitely won't be holding this position. Will sell at the earliest opportunity even if it means I take home $50 haha. Need to start making up the losses on the other 5 positions I'm holding...:nut:

[Meback]

Originally posted by djayz


:( too late order just filled at 3.60, definitely won't be holding this position. Will sell at the earliest opportunity even if it means I take home $50 haha. Need to start making up the losses on the other 5 positions I'm holding...:nut:


werd.. i m getting raped, I don't even want to look at the red right now, but i can assure you its at a 17% lost. I just hope that SR is right and that gold is gonna take on a massive correction.

[yoda124]

crazy to play inverse etf's and be short right now.Markets usually go up in December before xmas.Dubai fiasco is all bullshit.I'm long tck.b and bce.

[SilverRex]

so nothing all to exciting yesterday, after all I suggested we may see oil again get rejected near 80 oil, I think it got as high as 79 ish and has since reversed. with stoch over bought on higher time frame, my expecation is a turn to the down side to about mid 75s before giving it one last thrust to the upside over 80 that is.

I'll say the next time we cross over 80 oil would be a breakout.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil120209.jpg

and for gold, my expecation yesterday was a mini pull back then to new highs. it was so bullish it didnt even retest the 1180 support. and since has gone on over night to new highs just off 1217, now with this chart if this count is possible, then price projected target would have it the latest up leg would end some where around 1221 giving a upper trend channel is around this area, I'll say there is a very good chance the next move would be down.

but with gold being so bullish I'm going to keep the current down side target to just about 1170-1180. Unless it takes this area out, then we will be looking at a larger correction towards 1110

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold1202009.jpg

as you can see the dollar while I expected it to move down further it did, but not quite the distance I had hoped for. with gold, oil in a bullish trend unfolding. I can only expect the dollar continues to favor the down side until a significant breakout occurs such as breaking above 76.

until then I expect a bit of a rise short term then drop again. the dollar could be moving in a 3 wave pattern up and down for a much side way correction. imo However even so that doesnt mean the other market has to do the same.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar120209.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[cosmok]

Crude inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels
Gasoline inventories increased by 4.0 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels

[Dinan]

now you guys bullish on GOLD? maybe it is time to get into HGD :rofl:


looks like will rally into the end of the year and then might start that "correction" or "double dip"

[s_havinga]

Hey SR, is it reasonable to hold out for $8.50 HND? I missed $8.33 once waiting for it and dont want to make that mistake again... I'd would really like to see $9 but think I have given up on that hope. Thanks again for your daily updates!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Dinan
now you guys bullish on GOLD? maybe it is time to get into HGD :rofl:


looks like will rally into the end of the year and then might start that "correction" or "double dip"

not sure about the others but ive been calling gold to be looking for a top (which is bullish for the time being) for multiple weeks or ever since it took out 991 at the time I suggested a bullish top side to around 1189, we broke thru that so its much more bullish then I first thought

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by s_havinga
Hey SR, is it reasonable to hold out for $8.50 HND? I missed $8.33 once waiting for it and dont want to make that mistake again... I'd would really like to see $9 but think I have given up on that hope. Thanks again for your daily updates!

I havent really looked at NG ever since I got my target reached from 4.4 to mid 8s as I have recover all my loss plus made a few dollars.

chart wise NG isnt in a bullish trend just yet.

however I just look at how oil plays.

oil is in a short term sell off today which would bold well for NG for a bit more upside.

but I continue to favor an upside breakout for oil (based on the current trading pattern) which will be negative for NG. If you wanted to short NG, maybe wait until oil breaksout and hits 85

of course oil could fail to breakout. so trade at your own risk

[cosmok]

4.6 seems like a solid base for NG but the report tomorrow could easily wipe that out.

Edit: Wow I read that one wrong :banghead:

[s_havinga]

Originally posted by SilverRex


I havent really looked at NG ever since I got my target reached from 4.4 to mid 8s as I have recover all my loss plus made a few dollars.

chart wise NG isnt in a bullish trend just yet.

however I just look at how oil plays.

oil is in a short term sell off today which would bold well for NG for a bit more upside.

but I continue to favor an upside breakout for oil (based on the current trading pattern) which will be negative for NG. If you wanted to short NG, maybe wait until oil breaksout and hits 85

of course oil could fail to breakout. so trade at your own risk

Thanks, I am just at my break even around 8 so I might set a stop if it jumps over that and then hope to get a little spike and maybe make a few $ on that. That enough with NG for me though, I think I will stick with oil after this!

edit: man this is driving me crazy! I can sell now and break even but I have been holding so long I would like to see some profits! HND seems to be slowly rising but how high can it go?

[broken_legs]

sell at 13

[s_havinga]

Originally posted by broken_legs
sell at 13

Your still holding out for $13 hey? I would love to see that but would like to free up some money before the new year and just can't see those prices happening before then...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by s_havinga


Your still holding out for $13 hey? I would love to see that but would like to free up some money before the new year and just can't see those prices happening before then...

or 8.75 when ng closes the gap in the spot spot price.

[KappaSigma]

Anyone else making a good return on junior gold plays.

Ive played GWY and now EC a few times on pullbacks and run ups.

[SilverRex]

ok the dollar is at a cross road. and because of it oil either would breakout and make another thrust towards 80 or it will head a bit lower. looking at the chart this morning, its currently being confined to its odnw down trend line, my expecation is that a higher probability that it will trace out the next two level of fibo retracement between 75-75.75 before turning around for a breakout. of course unless it takes out 77.50 then we may have another test towards 79 and breakout above 80, but with this scenario that means the dollar has broken down further

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil120309.jpg

and for gold my expecation yesterday was that one more mini rally up towards 1221 hugging the upper trend channel then a move down. and so far we got our up move, so the down move should begin any time. Especially if you notice, asian market tends to lift gold up while the NY session brings it down. clearly the US does not want gold to go up.. geez I wonder why.

confirmation require gold to take out 1215 below to begin a down move. for now i am targeting between 1185-1200 area as an conservative approach because gold is indeed very bullish at this point in time. but if it takes out 1185 we will be looking at the 1150s. and only if 1150s is wipped out we will suggest a much larger correction is in play. And this would require the dollar rallying sharply higher and a breakout of its own.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold120309.jpg


now as for the dollar, I suggested yesterday it would make a mini rally and turn around at 74.70 and to my surprise that is exactly what it did. I wish every day was this perfect and I know it wont be. but now that it has turned around, it has confirmed a trend line (in purple) being establish in the other direction. so the key this morning is will the dollar break below this trend line and resume its decline this would hold gold up as well as pushing oil higher. but if this trend line holds or may be the key to a strong dollar reversal, then look for a breakout above 74.50 to begin a rally towards 75 this would bring further correction to oil and gold as I have so far expect this morning.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar120309.jpg

[Meback]

N.M i m a tool bag

[cosmok]

NG had a net increase of 2 Bcf from the previous week

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by cosmok
NG had a net increase of 2 Bcf from the previous week

inventory is still building 1st week of December and we are all time highs for storage. Meanwhile the economy and demand is on the decline. Meanwhile producers are not cutting back because they are hedged and selling at much higher prices and have no incentive to shut in their wells. Meanwhile shale gas reservoirs are producing way more gas than conventional wells.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.gif

Now if today is finally the day the dow gets rejected for the last time at 10,500 and starts the move down....


Here was my thoughts on NG last week:

[IMG]http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/ng20091125-1.jpg

[cosmok]

Been playing this range very successfully for the past few weeks. I think in the next day or 2 we'll have some significant movement in oil whether it be up or down depending on the green trend; which is based off of the lows from the beginning of the year

http://i45.tinypic.com/5wazx2.png

[997TT]

took first 3 days off this week and didn't look at my stocks as i was in LV....watched CNBC for a bit just to see how the indexes/commodities were doing.

glad to see gold push through 1200.

Now back to the drawing board and losing more money....

[KappaSigma]

Almsot time to reload on EC and possibly GWY

[yoda124]

major downside ahead?Triple peak on the s&p500.Note the 1110 level is the 50% fib from the july 2007 all time high of 1555 and march 2009 low of 666.Today is the third try it failed.

[SilverRex]

alright this morning could be an interesting day, I believe the the data report due in 20 mins will determine if the market has more legs or could give off a strong sell off. given most market is near the higher of their range and away from some major support such as oil and gold. a bad report could suddenly push them down similar to the dubai situation

looking at oil, I suggested oil was after its 50%-61% retracement, it got as far as 50% and since then price still trading within range so looking at this descending wedge, either its headed lower towards 75 and even 73s you can say with the stoch over sold, its waiting for a breakout to retest 80.

while I cannot predict what the report this morning will hold. but the chart is set up waiting for a breakout.

if price begins trading above 76.5 then the correction may have been completed. but a bad surprise from the data this morning could put oil testing the next two major support between 73.75-75

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil120409.jpg


now for gold, it was very good to see that it conservatively got to the target I mention between 1200-1085, after making a final mini rally it was obvious anything above 1221 was a short opportunity.

now that price has reached 1200 it hasnt gone lower. so 1200 is our short term support this morning. but again similar to oil, depending on the report. gold could make a move to retest above 1220+ or make a push lower. so really I would only attampt swing trades at near by support beginning 1200, then 200 EMA at 1190 after that I wouldnt touch a ten foot pole until 1160 unless you holding the short side since 1220

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold120409.jpg

as for the dollar, since breaking out a sharp declining trend line, my expecation was that it was headed to retest 75, but it didnt quite get there yesterday, it only got as far as 74.85 abouts. but no matter I guess everyone is waiting for the report to come out before taking a larger position in any direction. looking at the last 3 days. the dollar's rally appears corrective with so many overlapping against prior swing pt highs which suggest if the dollar was to break below 74.40 watch out. we could drop towards 74 really fast.

and because of this I have to say, dollar continues to be bearish (look for shorting opportunity) until it can sustain above 75-75.20. and even then it will only turn the dollar back to neutral. Bullish move remains breaking above 76.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar120409.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok so the dollar index did push above 75.20, we have to see if it can sustain above this.

so far oil is breaking higher, market is up, gold is holding above support. the only thing that is not right is the dollar pushing above 75.20, if we can close back below 75.20 then it would be safe to short the dollar

because clearly news is dollar negative

[Bisklimpkit]

Thanks for the call on gold, SR. Bought HGD yesterday morning at 3.48. I already sold it this morning for a nice gain!