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cosmok
12-04-2009, 09:56 AM
USD is on a rampage and oil's dropping like a ton of bricks, if it breaks below 75.6 longs could be in some trouble.

Edit: Seems like guys in the US are scared the liquidity from the US Government will dry up and are running to the Dollar. Any thoughts?

SilverRex
12-04-2009, 10:22 AM
ok while the chart pattern points oil to 85

however if the dollar begins a huge surge in the coming weeks. then no chart could defy that.

today was a prime example of technicality taking over fundamentals.

good report, oil should be surging. but dollar is rising instead.

tells me its a sell on news. perhaps the rally are all factored in of late.

dollar was able to sustain above 75.20, this could begin to look bullish. last confirmation is to take out 76

I am going to slowly add to a rising dollar with stops below 75 on the index

SilverRex
12-04-2009, 10:37 AM
im jumping the gun because cad looks ready to move into a wave III of its own (ignoring the news. the move of the dollar today is extremely impulsive)

as a result I anticipate dollar to breakout

but short term I would expect the dollar to pull back abit after retest 75.90

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/cad120409.jpg

SilverRex
12-04-2009, 01:06 PM
we got our 1160 target for gold and now I expect a bit of a mini rally as bears take profit to close out the week.

however caution there is another neckline supporting at 1150 for gold. and since the euro hasnt quite got to the 1.4800, this may have a chance to bottom out there instead. so if your playing the rally. use stops.

until next week :)

Canmorite
12-04-2009, 01:08 PM
What a dollar/gold move. Wild!

Good looking analysis SR.

cosmok
12-04-2009, 01:57 PM
Looks like the dollar wants to test 76

KappaSigma
12-04-2009, 03:39 PM
And refilled my EC position at $1.00. Well see what next week brings...

broken_legs
12-07-2009, 04:11 AM
DXY is over 76 right now... Could be an "interesting" day

KRZY403
12-07-2009, 05:35 AM
For the past month I've been plotting the TSX and Dow Jones indices and noticed that there's a strong correlation between the two. I've had no luck in finding an answer through google so it'd be greatly appreciated if someone could explain why or link me to a webpage that does.

broken_legs
12-07-2009, 06:54 AM
Originally posted by KRZY403
For the past month I've been plotting the TSX and Dow Jones indices and noticed that there's a strong correlation between the two. I've had no luck in finding an answer through google so it'd be greatly appreciated if someone could explain why or link me to a webpage that does.


Most markets will have a high correlation to the US stock market, however in the last year or so its almost a mirror.

Watch the stock market move, its the exact mirror of the USD/EUR.

The answer is that this market action is pretty much fake, mostly run by computers that all use the same indicators in their algorithms for trading (ie USD.EUR)

70% of the volume on the NYSE is computers trading with each other in millisecond trades.

Note that the only real volume days are DOWN days - Thats when actual people sell, not just computers.

KRZY403
12-07-2009, 07:09 AM
Originally posted by broken_legs



Most markets will have a high correlation to the US stock market, however in the last year or so its almost a mirror.

Watch the stock market move, its the exact mirror of the USD/EUR.

The answer is that this market action is pretty much fake, mostly run by computers that all use the same indicators in their algorithms for trading (ie USD.EUR)

70% of the volume on the NYSE is computers trading with each other in millisecond trades.

Note that the only real volume days are DOWN days - Thats when actual people sell, not just computers.


wow.. Thanks but I'm not quite sure I even understood that lol. Btw, this is for a project that I have to present in class on Tuesday in front of a bunch of students and my instructor so I gotta know what I'm talking about. Hoping someone can offer a more simple answer preferably one that can be linked to a website just in case.

broken_legs
12-07-2009, 07:28 AM
simply put - As the dollar gets weaker (value goes down) the amount of stocks that each dollar buys goes down.

So - If A stock was worth $10 USD, then the USD was devalued 25%, the same stock to maintain the same relative value would have to go up in price to $13.33.

Everyone is shorting the USD and buying risky assets - This is why the stock market is rallying - This is also why the s&p 500 / DJIA etc.. mirror the EUR/USD currency pair exactly (and because it's all done in real time with computers)

If you can open up a real time quote and watch the currency market ticks a the same time as the major indexes, it mirrors in real time - Hard to believe that People making trades could have that type of precision in a reaction to price movements.

Look up High Frequency Trading, Dark Pools, Co-Location etc...


www.zerohedge.com

^^ Alternative financial news backed with facts - Although the commentary is sometimes a bit wild.

SilverRex
12-07-2009, 07:46 AM
alright so we had a impulsive rally in the dollar last friday. the strong move caused a panic sell off in oil, and gold. And this morning momentum continued. but wait there could be things we need to be careful which I'll exaplin in the dollar itself.

but chart wise oil even though has turned around, the one thing that bothers me in believing the dollar has truely bottom is that the latest consolidation for oil hovering between the 75-80 for most of the last month concerns me that we have topped. and ignoring what the US dollar is doing, I would expect the dollar to find a bottom some where between 71.5 to where we are now 75.

Yes as contradicting as it sounds, while dollar looks like its on a mission, I believe we still need it to confirm one more thing, and until it does, I will suggest looking for a spot to go long in oil (if oil is your thing), with stoch over sold. I'll expect anything below 75 is a good pick. Now key is to ensure stops are below 71.50 because technically if oil takes out the 71.50 or more specificly 71.39 support, then it would invalidate the current Ew up count.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil120709.jpg

now for gold, I am quite happy to see the much larger correction as I have come to expect. before I was thinking gold was invisible, but after all it surcame to the technically that even gold needed to retrace. with gold breaking two necklines one at 1160 and one 1150 it has became bearish short term, while imo the over sold condition will certainly make for a good short covering rally, my expecation is gold to find a way to fill the gap lefted near 1120. my target range is between 1100-1120. Then we look for a bullish consolidation between the low 1120s and 1200 until a breakout for a final wave 5 top beyond 1227.

the run for gold in the last month has been impressive, its all because it was a sub wave III of III of B. B because I believe gold hasnt made the final correction it needs in order to fly to the moon.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold120709.jpg

ok now the dollar I have said the dollar would go after 76 once it sustain and remains above 75.20. surely it was obvious it did just that, and while the 75.90 area provided a bit of a resistance to begin the week, the dollar regain momentum and now pushed slightly above 76. imo, before we can say the dollar has more room to go, I expect the next move is down, simply it has gone a bit too far too soon. Looking on the daily chart. while it was nice to see it break one neckline, price is still under another. Price needs to break above this mornings high of 76.18 in order to make another advance towards 77.

To confirm the dollar has finally bottom and we can comfortably go long on every dip is to make sure the dollar clears 77, why 77? because it is a prior sub wave IV. clearly this would be bullish for the dollar.

I was quite excited on friday when I saw how the dollar performed. but until 77 is clearly I have to be cautious. its nothing new that every time the dollar tries to rally it sorta fooled every dollar bulls only to see the dollar make further extended wave patterns to the down side. A worse case scenario in the dollar would even have it as I wrote in the alt count in brown color that if gold can have an extension. what if, the dollar is simply just coming off completing a sub wave III instead of being in a final wave v of V? that would be scary, because that would imply we have much further upside in the market ahead. its always possible, since oil's consolidation in the 75-80 still concerns me (looks corrective) and the fact gold still has a final wave V move seeking for a final top.

if that is so, it does tells us it is highly unlikely that the dollar will be able to break above 77. and so my recommendation is that unless the dollar breaks above 76.18 today. I'll look for short opportunity. we will know the dollar was a fake rally if it re-enters below 75.50


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar120709.jpg

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollardaily.jpg

SilverRex
12-07-2009, 08:08 AM
here is potentially what may unfold.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollayweekly-1.jpg

Bisklimpkit
12-07-2009, 10:16 AM
What's the call on natural gas? Is today one of the spikes up before another couple days of dropping prices?

SilverRex
12-07-2009, 10:20 AM
oil is rally off a daily trend line support off 74 maybe a good swing pt buy here with stop below 74.

if the dollar's advance has peaked and my assumption of further dollar weakness hold true (unless it breaks above 76.80 on the dollar index)

then 74 oil may be a good starting entry for an upside breakout

mr2mike
12-07-2009, 12:21 PM
Originally posted by Bisklimpkit
What's the call on natural gas? Is today one of the spikes up before another couple days of dropping prices?

Wondering this too!
Don't want to see my gain pull back to par tomorrow.
Maybe this cold weather is floating down East to drop storage A BIT?

KappaSigma
12-07-2009, 01:12 PM
Originally posted by KappaSigma
And refilled my EC position at $1.00. Well see what next week brings...

$1.13 right now. Easy money. :)

djayz
12-07-2009, 02:17 PM
:banghead: Anyone else having trouble with ITrade? I keep getting the error message that Brokerage Data Service Unavailable when I go the "Get Quote" :thumbsdow

edit: Getting the error message trying to do anything, can't even put in a trade!!! WTF

KappaSigma
12-07-2009, 03:52 PM
Originally posted by KappaSigma


$1.13 right now. Easy money. :)

Solid close. $1.19.

broken_legs
12-07-2009, 05:26 PM
My personal feeling is that NG will be headed lower over the next couple of weeks.

It really makes no sense that NG can be so highly supplied and so little in demand and at record levels and sustain these prices.

What makes even less sense is that the last 2 days, every single commodity on the bloomberg creen is red except NG!

I'd say its a headfake before inventories - I am holding about 1800 shares of HND now. I just added some today at 6.70 and I obviously believe its going down, down, down.

But then again I am wrong a lot too!

:rolleyes:

e36bmw///
12-07-2009, 10:48 PM
nm

SilverRex
12-08-2009, 08:26 AM
ok so not much excitment in terms of direction, but lets check on oil once again. still within its trend channel however we are now back near our low side and the previous price support at around 72.50

if you ask me I think if oil is corrective, it has sold off far long enough. and I would expect once it finds a bottom some where around currently levels it should begin a move up.

Oil must not break below 71.39 as long as this holds its a good buying level for oil to shoot for 85. things will be different if 71.39 is broken to the down side so ensure your stops are in place.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil120809.jpg

and for gold while it hasnt retraced siginificantly it hasnt broken down siginifcantly either. the next time we take out above 1165 should push gold back higher towards the 1180-1185 area. my expecation is that gold should be able to hold above 1135 and make an advance. if I feel the dollar has peaked then gold shouldnt decline any further. there is always the possibility that the dollar is after a higher target, then yes gold can then make its full correction down to the low 1100-1120s but until then I have to expect gold's run stops here since oil is near a critical support and must turn around to avoid further bearish sentiment.

so as long as gold holds above 1135 I would attampt to go long here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold120809.jpg

finally the dollar as you can see it has trying multiple times trying to break above 76.18 but so far is still manages to get rejected. you do have to keep the breakout in mind because if it does break above the next area of resistance is 76.80, if dollar breaks above this, it would set off alot of technical signals to bulls. but we will worry about that if we get there. and until we do, I have to expect dollar just like it did for so many months. trend is down and its ready resume decline. so either you can bet against the dollar with a tight stop right here or wait until the dollar can comfortably take out 75.5 to the down side. and to confirm the new down leg is fully underway a break below 75.20 would be another bearish signal.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar120809.jpg

Bisklimpkit
12-08-2009, 09:05 AM
Is anyone else here holding any WEE? And if so, does anyone have any idea why their shares are tanking so much?

997TT
12-08-2009, 09:22 AM
i hold it. :banghead:

glad i sold half my shares at $2.85. But now i think im in the red overall ... mfkr

mr2mike
12-08-2009, 10:47 AM
Out of HNU because I think it's hitting resistance and breaking down. As well, all the news and all other things are in the red, it's almost a fluke that NG took that big run. I was expecting resistance around $10 but it climbed, now it's starting it's decline and now I'm into HND, shows a good chart I think. Could be wrong.
Broken_legs, I think you're good in HND, just didn't get the bottom. I might not have either. We'll see.

e36bmw///
12-08-2009, 02:53 PM
nm

s_havinga
12-08-2009, 03:07 PM
Can someone help me out with how to set stops? I can't seem to figure it out.

I have a holding of 200 shares HOD. It is currently at $10.36 I want to set a sale at $11 and a Stop-loss at $10.25.

How would I enter that into the td waterhouse Sell screen?

The catagories I need to fill in are:
Action (Sell, Buy, Buy on Stop, Sell on Stop)
Price (limit or market)
Special instructions (All or none, Stop Limit $)

I have been meaning to figure this out for a long time becasue it seems stops really are the way to save your ass with day trading so please help me out.

Thanks

Bisklimpkit
12-08-2009, 03:28 PM
Originally posted by s_havinga
Can someone help me out with how to set stops? I can't seem to figure it out.

I have a holding of 200 shares HOD. It is currently at $10.36 I want to set a sale at $11 and a Stop-loss at $10.25.

How would I enter that into the td waterhouse Sell screen?

The catagories I need to fill in are:
Action (Sell, Buy, Buy on Stop, Sell on Stop)
Price (limit or market)
Special instructions (All or none, Stop Limit $)

I have been meaning to figure this out for a long time becasue it seems stops really are the way to save your ass with day trading so please help me out.

Thanks

You can only do one or the other if you want to sell all 200 shares. You are not allowed to 'bracket' your shares. I don't use TD Waterhouse so I can't speak to the options as they're set up differently than the brokerage I use.

broken_legs
12-08-2009, 03:58 PM
Originally posted by s_havinga
Can someone help me out with how to set stops? I can't seem to figure it out.

I have a holding of 200 shares HOD. It is currently at $10.36 I want to set a sale at $11 and a Stop-loss at $10.25.

How would I enter that into the td waterhouse Sell screen?

The catagories I need to fill in are:
Action (Sell, Buy, Buy on Stop, Sell on Stop)
Price (limit or market)
Special instructions (All or none, Stop Limit $)

I have been meaning to figure this out for a long time becasue it seems stops really are the way to save your ass with day trading so please help me out.

Thanks

If you upgrade to active trader you can set bracket orders, otherwise you can only set one stop for the same position.

SilverRex
12-09-2009, 07:17 AM
ok so not much happening with oil, still expecting upside for oil unless oil takes out 71.39

now for gold, it looked as though it was after the gap at 1120 however price never got that. as the chart as shown the 50% fibo retracement support held price up and now if the dollar is to make a drop then I now expect gold to finish its bottoming process and advance higher amid not straight up

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold120909.jpg

and the dollar it took out 76.18 and appear ready to head towards 76.80 however price was still unable to advance further so a failed breakout? as long as it continues to trade below 76.20 my expecation is that the dollar still has the potential to top out right here. short term confirmation requires it to drop below 75.80, once we do the short on rally will continue

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar120909.jpg

SilverRex
12-09-2009, 08:46 AM
update

euro just broken an uptrending neckline and short term appears bearish going after its low.

it will be a test if the dollar can hold or further upside still remains.

unless dollar takes out 75.80, expect upside pressure to continue.

continue to keep the 76.80 area in mind, if dollar has not topped out, the potential for higher highs will no doubt give gold further down side, and we could very well hit our target area between 1100-1120 after all.

cosmok
12-09-2009, 09:42 AM
Crude oil inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels
Motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels

Pretty neutral

mr2mike
12-09-2009, 10:35 AM
Haven't been paying much attention to it but I see ECA (Encana) is at -44.7%??? Real?

broken_legs
12-09-2009, 10:41 AM
Originally posted by mr2mike
Haven't been paying much attention to it but I see ECA (Encana) is at -44.7%??? Real?

nope.

s_havinga
12-09-2009, 11:29 AM
haha, sold HOD (at a loss) for 10.3, now its 10.9. I just can't win...

mr2mike
12-09-2009, 11:46 AM
Originally posted by s_havinga
haha, sold HOD (at a loss) for 10.3, now its 10.9. I just can't win...

Not sure when you bought it but I'm guessing a few months back. Be careful to look for support. If there's no support on the trendline, don't pick it up, it could be falling further until a new support line is made. I'm not saying it's easy, just trying to help with advice. I'm no pro either.

Try to be weary of the spikes in the trend. Let profits roll (hardest part for me). If you see a trend breakdown, then look to bail.

Someone told me when you're buying a stock, look for reason why NOT to pick it up rather than why I should buy it. If you can't find a NOT, then go for it.

Keep a notebook to log your trades and what was going through your head and reasoning for the trade, expectations when you buy (your predetermined sell points, etc).

It's more about controlling emotions than actual finance knowledge, for the most part.

DJ_NAV
12-09-2009, 12:26 PM
Originally posted by s_havinga
haha, sold HOD (at a loss) for 10.3, now its 10.9. I just can't win...

Same here!! My avg. was 10.7 and had been holding for over a month. I was feeling good when i reduced my losses big time, but now I do not feel good.

cidley69
12-09-2009, 01:45 PM
I'm holding a bunch of HOD that I bought at 11.13......


And wondering if I should sell now at a loss, or wait and see if it will return to that price again.....

s_havinga
12-09-2009, 02:46 PM
glad I am not the only one! I wanted to make sure I got out before this run to 85 SR keeps talking about. If oild is still low after this sale clears, I think im getting into HOU.

mr2mike
12-09-2009, 03:03 PM
Originally posted by broken_legs
My personal feeling is that NG will be headed lower over the next couple of weeks.


You called it, this time! Hopefully HND still performs tomorrow too.

ckangarloo
12-09-2009, 03:28 PM
Question? Are you guys making anything on trades with HOU/HOD HNU/HNG or just loosing lots of money? Can't believe I still see lots of action in this thread regarding them.

I was burnt trading these for a few months and now realize there are much simpler equities to play with instead of these which really only make Horizon lots of money. Plus, I got tired of tracking CL all the time.

mr2mike
12-09-2009, 03:37 PM
Personally, I've been doing well but I just started. HNU was bottom of the barrel as I saw it. Picked it up, started studying it's moves and doing very well on it.

This thread got me into them to be honest. Otherwise, I am mostly trading US stocks in a US trading account.

I only went to these Horizon trades for my TFSA. The plan was a long term investment in HNU. But, I can't keep away from trading it weekly.

But then again, RBC told me the TFSA was only for Canadian stocks (if I used this account to trade). Which is not the case as people have told me.

Doing better on these Horizons than my US stocks. That's for sure.
But I do know guys that have been burnt BADLY by these stocks and told me stay away!!! They're in the financial industry. I took his advice, and thought, to make money you don't do what all the sheep are doing. So I bought in.

KappaSigma
12-09-2009, 09:38 PM
Watch EC next 2 days. If it pulls back between $1.05-1.10 time to reload again.

davidI
12-09-2009, 11:46 PM
I had to carry HOD for around a month but am back in the money now. I sold half my position at even and am only carrying 400 shares now but am significantly up. It ended up just being a much longer hold than I envisioned. I usually only play the leveraged ETFs for short-term swing trades and carry a more diversifivied long-term portfolio. I've exited most positions at the moment though as I still think the market is overdue for a correction. I guess I left some money on the table by exiting when I did but hopefully I can get back into my long-term holds at cheaper prices in the next few months.

SilverRex
12-10-2009, 07:18 AM
ok so I see the oil did take out the 71.39 support which I had hope hold price in check. but breaking this isnt the end of the day of oil. not yet, as the dollar has yet to confirm its trend reversal and because of it I have revised to the following.

as you can see oil is still very much within its megaphone pattern on the low side. if anything I still expect the next major move is to the upside. unless of course both gold and dollar signals a large scale trend reversal.

I dont think oil will hit 65 unless it takes out 69. so until it does, with its current over sold conditions on multiple time frames. oil should slowly grind back up. look for oil to get back and hold above 72

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil121009.jpg

now for gold, i just couldnt believe how many times this continues to work out. Gap does get filled. and so yesterday the gap at 1120 was filled. Also there is a descending wedge pattern forming which typical means gold will eventually bottom around near current prices and breakout to the upside. The pattern also means the sell off is getting exhusted. and buying pressure is slowly beginning to mount. I do not expect gold to hit any lower than 1100 and possible the 1115s may have been hit with a bullish candle hammer yesterday. Obviously confirmation will require gold to breakout from the wedge but if your risk tolerence allows it, you may go long with stops below 1100.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold121009.jpg

finally the dollar. it continues to remains under the trend channel upper trend line. and with the way things are going with oil and gold. I continue to remains bearish on dollar unless it can take out 76.80, when dollar first attampted to break above 76.20 it looked like 76.80 was about to be tested. but its been struggling to do just that, and the struture is begining to look corrective at current heights. while the dollar short term is moving in a triangle pattern with potentially breakout to the upside, I do expect the pop would be short lived. key is to rebreak below 75.90 to begin new down leg.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar121009.jpg

997TT
12-10-2009, 09:27 AM
Originally posted by ckangarloo
Question? Are you guys making anything on trades with HOU/HOD HNU/HNG or just loosing lots of money? Can't believe I still see lots of action in this thread regarding them.

I was burnt trading these for a few months and now realize there are much simpler equities to play with instead of these which really only make Horizon lots of money. Plus, I got tired of tracking CL all the time.

I've never once lost money on any leveraged ETF.

Signed,
Tiger never cheated.

on a serious note, glad WEE bounce back. pos stock had me worried there.

cosmok
12-10-2009, 09:31 AM
Natural gas had a net decline of 64 Bcf :eek:

broken_legs
12-10-2009, 09:42 AM
i am in a significant amount of pain right now.
:barf:


Edit:

still going to hold though... :eek:


I still see major resistance around teh 5.20 level for NG.

I also see a giant megaphone happening here - If the next part of the megaphone fills in its down to 4.10-4.20 for NG

cosmok
12-10-2009, 09:47 AM
Originally posted by broken_legs
i am in a significant amount of pain right now.
:barf:


Edit:

still going to hold though... :eek:
I don't think stops would have helped much either in that situation, it fell right off a cliff

s_havinga
12-10-2009, 09:50 AM
what a drop!! I feel your pain Im holding too, dont need the cash, Ng will drop again one day

broken_legs
12-10-2009, 09:51 AM
Originally posted by cosmok

I don't think stops would have helped much either in that situation, it fell right off a cliff


Currently my risk management is hope and prayer and a hunch. Despite the fact that I have access to trailing stops, brackets etc I've fallen in love with a story and sticking to it.

cosmok
12-10-2009, 09:54 AM
Originally posted by broken_legs



Currently my risk management is hope and prayer and a hunch. Despite the fact that I have access to trailing stops, brackets etc I've fallen in love with a story and sticking to it.
:rofl: right on, I'd wish you luck but I'm on the other side of that trade

yellowsnow
12-10-2009, 10:02 AM
just bought 2000 in HND! Glad I didn't buy it yesterday, crazy drop there.

mr2mike
12-10-2009, 10:06 AM
Took the loss too broken_legs.
I'm out of NG until it settles down from this hype.
Into HOU. $7.87 falls into $7.50 range, I'll probably exit.

s_havinga
12-10-2009, 11:25 AM
anyone ever played PES.UN? I've been watching it for a few months now and watched it make a run from .40 to .7 its back to .42, thinking of picking up a couple thousand shares...

KappaSigma
12-10-2009, 03:01 PM
GWY with possible news leak on drilling? It just ran 20 cents in about 10 minutes!!! WTF lol

Rat Fink
12-10-2009, 07:04 PM
.

davidI
12-10-2009, 09:23 PM
Damn. Had 1k shares of HOD at $9.30 - been taking profits off the table and only have 200 shares now. I didn't expect oil to continue dropping! I guess a small win is better than a big loss...

Just not sure where to re-invest my money right now. I have too much cash on the sidelines!

KappaSigma
12-10-2009, 09:37 PM
Originally posted by Rat Fink


Just be careful dude, I see that Front Street Investment management is starting to sell some of the shares they just got at 85 cents. Could also be getting heavily promoted behind the scenes, you just never know

Thanks for the heads but I sold my position today.

cidley69
12-10-2009, 09:57 PM
Any predictions on where oil prices are going next?

It doesn't seem very possible that they can get any lower.......

e36bmw///
12-10-2009, 10:33 PM
nm

SilverRex
12-11-2009, 09:19 AM
ok sorry for the late posting. but bias hasnt changed. I Expect oil to move up once the dollar tops out.

for now 69 must hold and next move to the upside

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil121109.jpg

and for gold as you can see it broke away from the descending wedge, amid that indicates a bullish move, the dollar appears to have just popped out of its own consolidation triangle and such gold is now retesting some support. again I do not see gold lower then 1100 at this time, look for a place to go long

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold121109.jpg

dollar as I have said will temporary breakout to the top side but given these triangle patterns are usually in the final wave, this thurst upwards should not last. I could be wrong if the dollar impulsively takes out 76.80 I cant stress enough the importance of these level. but unless it does my bias remains bearish on the dollar

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar121109.jpg

cidley69
12-11-2009, 10:01 AM
Does anyone on here use Q-trade (from First Calgary)?

I am trying to figure out:

limit
stop limit
stop market

the help feature of Q-trade is not much help.

davidI
12-11-2009, 11:44 PM
It was easier to google the response than type it out for you:

Limit, Market and Stop Orders

To buy or sell a stock, one can enter a few different types of orders to best serve one’s trading goals. The following short description uses orders for 800 shares of YHOO to illustrate some common ordering variants:

Limit Order-- to buy 800 shares of YHOO at 125: buy 800 shares YHOO at 125 or better (lower price). Sometimes one gets a series of partial trades (partially filled orders) at different prices all equal to 125 or better. If the market price of YHOO moves up before the order can be executed, one may lose the opportunity and never get the trade done.
Market Order-- to buy 800 shares of YHOO: buy 800 shares of YHOO now at whatever prevailing market price. Usually one gets the stock at the ask price of the moment when the order reaches the exchange. Sometimes, one gets a series of partial trades at (partially filled orders) different prices, with different shares adding up to 800 shares. With such a market order, one always gets 800 shares of YHOO, although there is a risk of getting them at a considerably higher price.
Limit Order-- to sell YHOO at 125 1/8: sell YHOO at 125 1/8 or better (higher price). Sometimes one may get a series of partial trades (partially filled orders) at different prices all equal to 125, for example, or better. If the market price of YHOO moves down before the order can be executed, it is possible to lose the opportunity and never get the trade done at all.
Market Order-- to sell YHOO: sell YHOO now at whatever prevailing market price. Usually one will get the stock at the ask price of the moment when the order reaches the exchange. Sometimes, one gets a series of partial trades (partially filled orders) at different prices, the shares of which add up to 800. With such a market order, one can always sell 800 shares of YHOO, although there is a risk of selling them at lower prices.
Stop Market Order-- to sell 800 YHOO at 122: sell 800 YHOO at the market price if the bid price hits 122.
Stop Limit Order-- to sell 800 YHOO at 122 stop and 121 1/2 limit: sell 800 YHOO at 121 1/2 or better (higher) price if the bid price hits 122.
Stop Market Order-- to buy 800 YHOO at 128: buy 800 YHOO at market price if the ask price hits 128.
Stop Limit Order-- to buy 800 YHOO at 128 stop and 129 1/2 limit: buy 800 YHOO at 129 1/2 or a better (lower) price if the ask price hits 128.

davidI
12-12-2009, 01:43 AM
Does anyone know of a good, free, stock sorter for the TSX?

What I mean by that is that I'd like to be able to do a search for companies with a market cap >$XXX, Yield >$XXX, Beta <X etc. and find all those listed companies fitting those parameters.

cosmok
12-12-2009, 12:01 PM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34379259 interesting article for those in a NG play

broken_legs
12-13-2009, 04:59 PM
Originally posted by cosmok
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34379259 interesting article for those in a NG play

Schorck is only right when im trading against him.

Damn you Schorck.

SilverRex
12-14-2009, 07:53 AM
ok this will be an important week. as I have a good feeling for how it unfolds will tell the story.

beginning with oil. while I still had hopes of a oil rally late of the week, but ever since it took out the support 71.39, and not only that it also took out 69 briefly this morning. I have to now turn oil into bearish sentiment. Its unfortunate. but as you can see oil has slowly but surely take out one support after another. The only thing holding it back is its very over sold. With this said, I believe oil has just completed a 5 wave pattern. For the time being I believe going long on oil may not appear too probable (obviously, the dollar will play a huge role in this)

While I expect oil should find a bottom and hopefully make a rally from here. I expect the next rally to be a head fake. Next target support is at 65. 65 will be a good area for a swing trade in the upward direction. But if oil some how makes a low at 65 before making a high back above 72+ then oil would be even more bearish.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil121409.jpg

and for gold, so far 1100 is holding, but certainly doesnt look pretty. its in a mini declining trend channel and gold must break out of this channel in order to have any short term upside, other wise my suggestion is if your long have tight stop below 1100, after this gold's next most likely area of buying will come in near 1070 which is also the last support before turning gold bearish as well. But until then, I expect gold isnt quite finished. And we should see at least one more wave of buying between 1070 or 1100 area to take off for a final drive towards 1200+ The only downer to gold is that, it has already completed a sub wave iii, and is currently undergoing a larger sub wave iv correction. when it comes to wave V it risk a chance of a failure unlike wave iiis which are typically strong and lasting. so I would only swing trades near major support and resistance going forward.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold121409.jpg

finally the dollar, from a higher time frame, there are a few bullish signals last week, it has broken a multimonth long trend line, not only that it is currently retesting an important resistance near 76.80, while price is so far not able to push above this, but I feel its only a matter of time. However if the dollar did bottom near 74, based on EW it hasnt given us the 5 wave pattern to the down side. So that is why I said this week will be important, because either the dollar Has bottomed and will make a correctional move downwards and breakout to the top side or it will find its way back to low of 74 which wold suggest the recent dollar rally nothing more than a larger flat iv correction. While until the dollar unfold itself over the next few days, my bet is a larger wave iv correction that will eventually result in one more dip to a new low.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar121409.jpg

on the lower time frame, the dollar is ready to complete a top and begin a move downward. We will soon see if the down draft will be correctional or impulsive. But in saying so, risk remains that if this is simply a larger correctional wave iv on a higher time frame, the dollar can make a high towards 77.30 given how sub wave i moved. but that only means any rise will be short lifted. If the dollar is to suddenly make a sharp breakout, look for a quick short either wise a good swing trade is to short at currently levels with stops just below current highs.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar121409B.jpg

DJ_NAV
12-14-2009, 01:08 PM
US dollar wont show any signs of recovery hey.

tryingtobebest1
12-15-2009, 01:08 AM
2 posts for monday?? WTF?

anywhay, would like to know your guys thoughts on HND and HOU??

SilverRex
12-15-2009, 07:28 AM
Gold is down again retesting 1110 area. Some european economic reports seem to be responsible for the euto going down against dollar. I believe that we are going up after this double bottom at 1110. I am looking forward to your analysis of Dollar/Euro and Gold.

Thanks

TSR

ok then lets start with gold. your right so far support is seen at 1100, however it will all dpend if the dollar as topped yet or not. For the time being the obvious oberservation has it that gold needs to break above 1130 in order to initiate the double bottom play at 1100 as well as breaking away from the current trend channel. with stoch in over sold, it does appear ready to make an advance to the top side. but risk towards 1070s remains so long its under 1130 and especially taking out 1100.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold121509.jpg

and for oil, sort of in a similar stance execpt given how bearish oil has become of late. even if oil breaksout above 70, the most likely rejection may take place between 71-72.5. Oil will continue to remain bearish until it can sustain above 72.5 And if gold is to drop to 1070 that could easily open up oil towards 65 as well.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil121509.jpg

and finally for the dollar which leads all market imo, i am expecting we are in a mini wave iii of (v). Its going to be during the down move of the dollar once it completes a top that will tell the story if the dollar's recent rally is for real or simply just a larger wave IV flat correction.

obviously I welcome the idea for the dollar to top out this morning so that gold and oil can retrace a bit. but given the current structure I think the dollar still needs to hit a bit higher into the 77-77.30 area before it is finished.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar121509.jpg

KappaSigma
12-15-2009, 09:10 AM
Just reloaded on EC.

Dinan
12-15-2009, 09:14 AM
what you guys think about the EURO/USD ???

IM Looking to obuy some euro, about 5kUSD worth... you guys think it will drop more, the EURO ?

997TT
12-15-2009, 09:25 AM
Wee has been on a nice run. Now if gold would remarch to back to 1200 my kgn and hgu holdings would be worth a lot more. Lol

roopi
12-15-2009, 09:29 AM
Originally posted by davidI
Does anyone know of a good, free, stock sorter for the TSX?

What I mean by that is that I'd like to be able to do a search for companies with a market cap &gt;$XXX, Yield &gt;$XXX, Beta &lt;X etc. and find all those listed companies fitting those parameters.

Does your brokerage account not offer this? Who do you use?

broken_legs
12-15-2009, 10:43 AM
Originally posted by davidI
Does anyone know of a good, free, stock sorter for the TSX?

What I mean by that is that I'd like to be able to do a search for companies with a market cap &gt;$XXX, Yield &gt;$XXX, Beta &lt;X etc. and find all those listed companies fitting those parameters.

i use globeinvestor gold - 14$/month.

mr2mike
12-15-2009, 11:20 AM
NG is still climbing but the temp is warming in the East. Anyone thinking that storage will be up?
Thinking HGD? Anyone else? Besides broken_legs who I think is still holding and praying.:(

DJ_NAV
12-15-2009, 11:57 AM
NG is being affected by the Exxon deal, which is causing causing the price to go up as gas is taken seriously again.

KappaSigma
12-15-2009, 12:35 PM
Originally posted by KappaSigma
Just reloaded on EC.

Looking good today now. See if it breaks out later this week.

WOW< look at WZR go today!

broken_legs
12-15-2009, 02:12 PM
Originally posted by mr2mike
NG is still climbing but the temp is warming in the East. Anyone thinking that storage will be up?
Thinking HGD? Anyone else? Besides broken_legs who I think is still holding and praying.:(

Well slightly more than just hoping... lol

Either were in a condition like this:

http://www.trending123.com/media/free/patterns/megaphone_bottom.png

^^ In which case I am going to be a big fat loser. :facepalm:

Or we are in a condition like this:

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/ng_12_15_09.jpg

I guess we'll see on Thursday
:dunno:

cosmok
12-15-2009, 03:57 PM
^Place your bets at the Horizons casino

Zewind
12-15-2009, 04:07 PM
Anyone have an idea if/when Globalive Media(Wind Moblie) will put shares on the TSX?

troyl
12-15-2009, 05:47 PM
Originally posted by mr2mike
NG is still climbing but the temp is warming in the East. Anyone thinking that storage will be up?
Thinking HGD? Anyone else? Besides broken_legs who I think is still holding and praying.:(

Just remember that inventory reports are for the previous week. It was fairly cold last week, so I expect another draw, but thats just me. Of course inventory reports are only one factor that impacts NG prices.

Inzane
12-15-2009, 09:27 PM
I decided to cut my losses and dumped all my remaining HNU today.

We'll see if I cry later this week about that or not...

Mx6er
12-16-2009, 02:09 AM
been following this thread for awhile, love the TA you guys put up here!

I am looking at potential Uranium plays. I was wondering if you guys had an opinion on Uranium's outlook short term & long term.

Ive made a few flips on trading HAT.V and a few others, but thinking about going long on U.TO or Cameco. what do you guys think?

SilverRex
12-16-2009, 07:47 AM
so nothing too exciting. for oil, since it took out a declining trendline. price slowly moved up inch by inch and so far is trying to get thru a nearterm resistance at 71.50

looking at the chart I would say upside for the time being would be limited to between 72.5-74, for oil to become bullish again it will require alot of work, and until then look for price to hit its breaks beginning 72.5 for the time being.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil121609.jpg

and for gold, while it did finally punched thru 1130 briefly, it is begging to become over bought which is the one thing that may concern me. other than that, the fact that it move passed out of its own declining trend channel suggest we may indeed have a double bottom at 1100. That is not to say 1100 is a sure thing, but in fact had just became a real support. meaning if we do see gold taking out 1100 then it most likely will get into the 1070 range. but until that happens. gold is looking good to bottom around here. I think we may see further consolidation before it begins higher rise.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold121609.jpg

and for the dollar, I expected a bit further upside, but it only got as high as 77.09, now it is testing a trend line support as well as a prior sub wave I at 76.70, so there is still chance for the dollar to make higher top above 77.09 if 76.70 holds. and if you want to short. wait until price can sustain below 76.70 then we can talk anti dollar. There are a few support to take into consideration shall dollar begin to fall. One is at 76.3 and the other 75.90 abouts. but lets deal with 76.7 first. I'd be happy seeing this give way first.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar121609.jpg

SilverRex
12-16-2009, 07:47 AM
so nothing too exciting. for oil, since it took out a declining trendline. price slowly moved up inch by inch and so far is trying to get thru a nearterm resistance at 71.50

looking at the chart I would say upside for the time being would be limited to between 72.5-74, for oil to become bullish again it will require alot of work, and until then look for price to hit its breaks beginning 72.5 for the time being.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil121609.jpg

and for gold, while it did finally punched thru 1130 briefly, it is begging to become over bought which is the one thing that may concern me. other than that, the fact that it move passed out of its own declining trend channel suggest we may indeed have a double bottom at 1100. That is not to say 1100 is a sure thing, but in fact had just became a real support. meaning if we do see gold taking out 1100 then it most likely will get into the 1070 range. but until that happens. gold is looking good to bottom around here. I think we may see further consolidation before it begins higher rise.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold121609.jpg

and for the dollar, I expected a bit further upside, but it only got as high as 77.09, now it is testing a trend line support as well as a prior sub wave I at 76.70, so there is still chance for the dollar to make higher top above 77.09 if 76.70 holds. and if you want to short. wait until price can sustain below 76.70 then we can talk anti dollar. There are a few support to take into consideration shall dollar begin to fall. One is at 76.3 and the other 75.90 abouts. but lets deal with 76.7 first. I'd be happy seeing this give way first.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar121609.jpg

Bisklimpkit
12-16-2009, 08:01 AM
Originally posted by Mx6er
I am looking at potential Uranium plays. I was wondering if you guys had an opinion on Uranium's outlook short term &amp; long term.

Ive made a few flips on trading HAT.V and a few others, but thinking about going long on U.TO or Cameco. what do you guys think?

I am currently long on U.TO (bought in yesterday) as I believe the indicators were there to make it a buy. I've been tracking CCO.TO for a while and it appears due for one of it's drops, so I'd look to be able to get in around the $31 mark but I still think you'd do ok in the long run even at current prices.

Another thing with Cameco is that they're in the process of de-watering their Cigar Lake mine. Once they get that mine up and running, they're going to take off. The question is when are they going to be at that point?

997TT
12-16-2009, 08:26 AM
I'm long on Pdn. Have been for a while now. Have flipped it a few times and sold calls to take profits but I feel it has good support here and is a potential takver target. With Cco seliing its stake in Centerra I'm hoping an acq is around the corner.

cosmok
12-16-2009, 09:34 AM
Oil inventory decreased by 3.7 million barrels
Motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels

mr2mike
12-16-2009, 09:39 AM
Thanks Cosmok.

Good to see oil inventory decrease. Good for my HOU.

broken_legs
12-16-2009, 11:40 AM
Someone asked about globallive:




Wind Mobile launches new cellphone services
10:37 EST Wednesday, Dec 16, 2009
Print this article Email this article
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Toronto — The newest player in Canada's wireless sector has launched its services, bringing more competition into the already hotly contested cellphone market.

Wind Mobile has launched stores in the Toronto area and says it plans to open more later this week in Calgary, to be followed by a rollout in Vancouver, Ottawa and Edmonton in the new year.

The company rolled out its full lineup of products and services, which includes Research in Motion's BlackBerry Bold 9700 and competitive unlimited calling and data plans.

TWSTART1402512TWEND

Outside of its coverage area, Wind says it will provide national coverage through a roaming agreement.

While it did not immediately say what its pricing will be, Wind Mobile says its service will offer no activation fees, contracts or system access fees.

It will also not charge for enhanced 9-1-1 services or incoming texts and long distance calls and will not charge penalties for changing or cancelling a plan.

Wind Mobile hardware:

* BlackBerry Bold 9700
* HTC Maple
* Samsung Gravity
* Huawei U519
* Huawei E181 data stick

Calling plan features:

* No contracts
* No monthly service charges
* Free calling between Wind phones
* Free long distance on certain plans or as an add-on

The company, which is owned by parent firm Globalive, says its network is live and operational with some customers already testing the service.

Globalive is one of several companies that bought wireless spectrum in a government auction last year. It was initially prevented from launching when the CRTC ruled it had too much foreign ownership with Egyptian telecom firm Orascom taking too big a stake in a the company.

That ruling was later overturned by Industry Minister Tony Clement.

Wind Mobile will be going up against the already established players, Rogers, Bell, and Telus. The company has formed a partnership with video chain Blockbuster and has opened boutiques in 13 stores in Toronto and three in Calgary.

More to come ...




Why WIND? WIND is an established and growing brand with a successful history of over 10 years in two large European markets (Italy and Greece). WIND is a brand of Wind Telecomunicazione, an operating unit of Weather Investments s.p.A., WIND has a reputation as a market challenger in Europe, and its customer base shares a very similar profile with our primary target segment.


Jobs in calgary:

https://globalive.tms.hrdepartment.com/cgi-bin/a/searchjobs_quick.cgi


Investor relations:


Investment Relations

Anthony Lacavera
[email protected]

DRKM
12-16-2009, 03:38 PM
Sold my hou for a quick profit before the inventory report. I have been up so many times prior to and then in the negative after the report so I never hold through the reports.

I may start to become short on fincials pretty soon.

As for a NG play it looks like it is right on the cusp of a breakout. If it fails hopefully it retraces the megaphone pattern.

Broken: Have you been using the HNU/HND options? They just came out...

I was thinking about buying some cheap VIX options since every month there seems to be a day where the vix jumps 20% or something stupid.

mr2mike
12-16-2009, 03:41 PM
Thought about selling HOU. I'm with you on the not holding through a report. Got burnt on TRLG (true religion jeans) this way. Held through a Q report. VERY risky!

I'll take my chance.

Looking for an entry on HND but it's on the rise still w/no break down yet. Possibly on Thurs when storage is up again?

DJ_NAV
12-16-2009, 09:43 PM
Oil is likely to be higher by the end of the year.. but not by much i would say.

Gas on the other hand could go either way, but should be volatile.

SilverRex
12-17-2009, 06:26 AM
ok I hate to say this but I hope i am finally right since a trend reversal is no small matter.

but for oil I think it has topped at 82 and the recent downdraft to 69 would mark the 1st wave down. now oil after cracking 72.5 should make a move higher. over bought condition may consolidate it a bit further or sell of a bit but I dont think it will take out the support established below 70. now the correction could easily take this back to 75 or even as high as 79. Since wave 2 corrections can often be as steep as 78.6% fibo retracement.

So yes oil is bearish and I would either look for a swing trade up north to 75, then look for a shorting opportunity beginning near 75-79 for a sub wave iii of I to initiate.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil121709.jpg

as for gold, while risk to 1070 remains as long as 1110 holds my expecation continues to be up this week. Again similar to oil, I am beginning to believe gold has topped and should begin a bit of a larger correctional move north of here. Max top side I see would be again the 78.6% fibo at 1200. so once we get back to 1150-1180 starting thinking short.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold121709.jpg

now why turning oil and gold bearish you say? well looking at the dollar. I was suggesting recently that the dollar isnt done moving up and we should see a bit more updraft. and so we got just that, a sharp move upwards. a bit more than what I expect but none the less within my expecation. And with the recent rally for the dollar, couple the fact that it broke out of a multi month down trend line. and more importantly, it has made a 10EMA and 20EMA death cross which we have not seen since april this year I would think that should warrant some attention. But with the dollar overbought on the daily chart. I will limit its upside and will soon top out quickly then begin a multi wave sell off down towards the 75-75.6 area. And if the dollar does just that then begin another move climb from there on. then we know the dollar is beginning a sub wave 3 move which would be larger than the one we recently witnessed. So no need to panic, lots of time to pick a good spot to go long in the dollar imo. Or you can short at current levels so some quick swing trades going down.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar121709.jpg

DJ_NAV
12-17-2009, 09:12 AM
What are you trade picks today? HGU? its down big time already... time for recovery?

broken_legs
12-17-2009, 09:22 AM
Originally posted by DRKM

Broken: Have you been using the HNU/HND options? They just came out...



Expiry dates aren't good for me. But I will have a look...

cosmok
12-17-2009, 09:30 AM
:eek: 207 Bcf decline, thats the largest in history!