Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

ok while things hasnt really changed from the last post. but things are moving along pretty well so far.

lets look at the dollar, as you can see, after the dollar made quite a rally to end the year, it has since moving into a declining trending channel. and the obvious expecation is once this correction completes (breakout above 78) the dollar should make new grounds higher.

the only thing that worries me is that it did not retrace enough. I was expecting at least 76.8 so we cannot rule out even if price punch out of this channel, it may still be able to fall back to induce a lower low. all in all, trend is up, its currently correcting and I think that is as good as it gets in terms of views.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar010710.jpg

and with the dollar correcting, the move in oil and gold will certainly depend very much on it. yes, it Will be a dollar play. after all how often was it not to begin with?

while the dollar did not quite correct to a text book level yet, we see gold has so far moved along just fine. I was expecting weeks ago once gold touched down close to 1070, it would begin a mini rally towards the range of 1130-1170. And so far it hit about 1140 which has satisfied the min 38% retracement. In order to call this rally finished. I would like to see gold take out the 1115 level, and will begin to look very bearish if it can even take out the purple trend line below 1100. until then you can attampt short with stops above 1140 if you believe the dollar is ready to make a move. or wait a bit and see if gold may still have enough juice left to hit the next target area at 1150.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold010710.jpg


can you believe it, while oil was bearish in my view and I called a top at 82, it took out 82, however given oil trades with a contango, would this be a breakout or a false one? because depending on what charting service you use, while the front month contract has broken to new highs but that was due to a roll over price, but if you were using the feburary contract price chart since it came out, then you will realize it hasnt quite breaking out the say way so I wouldnt call it a panic buy just yet.

in fact my expecation is that oil should retest 80 and I'll call it a top if it can take out the trend line to the down side.

yes, if the dollar is to make a move, I dont think oil can advance, even if it does, it will ever be so painful.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil010710.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[cosmok]

153 BCF draw of NG

[troyl]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
thanks SR

has anyone noticed march contract for ng is cheaper that feb??
i dont remember ever seeing that before

Backwardation.

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by cosmok
153 BCF draw of NG

Looks like everyone tried to jump the news and bought HNU yesterday. No 10%+ drop in HND today on the news, I think is good news for all us HND holders who bought yesterday. Looks like hnd was oversold and I am waiting for the correction. But with the cold in the US, I'm very cautious like cosmok said.

[troyl]

Originally posted by troyl
Picked up a few more CLL at 0.85.

CLL 1.51:clap:

[SilverRex]

im always curious as to how gap filling actually works more often than not.

looking at both hod and hnd as you can see both have various price level gap that needs to be filled in due time.

while we cannot base our trades solely on one condition. the fact I believe the US dollar has more room to advance gives me more confidence in expecting a counter move coming very soon.

for the time being im expecting oil to get back to the 10s and gas to the 7s.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gapfilling.jpg

[SilverRex]

hey, does any one know off the top of their head what is the process of withdrawing money back out of TFSA?

I notice its simple to deposit money, but I use TDwaterhouse and there is no option in any where I can withdraw the money.

is it locked and I have to call in?

[mr2mike]

I've always just called them and they'll send out a cheque. I know if it's in a US account, it takes a bit longer with the exchange back to the CAN side then cutting the cheque.

You would think a call and they can do an elect. transfer.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by mr2mike
I've always just called them and they'll send out a cheque. I know if it's in a US account, it takes a bit longer with the exchange back to the CAN side then cutting the cheque.

You would think a call and they can do an elect. transfer.

thanks

I'm not actually taking money out, but its good to know in case I need to

[cosmok]

Tabernac, missed the opportunity to dump HNU today

[SilverRex]

view this week hasnt changed a whole lot

just to throw a quick update on the dollar. as you can see it does appear the dollar has some what broken the trend channel in the north direction and retested the breakout point.

if things fall accordingly, it should advance shortly after.

but given we have a big report due out in 10 mins. we may experience some potential wild swings. meaning, during the release of report. it is not common to have price violently swing both ways we could be met with false breakout or break downs. so caution

but if the dollar is to gain ground, then then that would translate to weaker oil and gold and even NG. So lets hope that is exactly what it plays out.

but again during my last chart update I mention because the dollar did not quite retrace to a minimum 38.6% level, it has me concern if the dollar may still put in a larger flat correction, meaning, even if we broke out and the dollar heads higher, you have to set stops as there is a possible scenario where the dollar may still crash to make a lower low. So dont get just to excited just yet.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar010810.jpg

[DRKM]

Job less report out. Bearish on both sides of the border. Will we see a jobless ralley today like last time?

[The_Rural_Juror]

I need a cheaper cost trading account than Waterhouse. Does anyone have any recommendations?

[SilverRex]

so we got our wild swing in a way, defying the breakout some what, but price has since rebounded and slowly close to making a move for a new high in the dollar. if that is so,

expect weakness for oil, gold and even NG

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarreport.jpg

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by The_Rural_Juror
I need a cheaper cost trading account than Waterhouse. Does anyone have any recommendations?

People keep telling me Scotia iTrade. I'm with Waterhouse and RBC. Both are pretty high commission.

I liked this site to review them all. He says he keeps the info current.

http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/review-canadian-discount-brokerages.htm

[The_Rural_Juror]

Thanks mr2mike!

[Mx6er]

Originally posted by troyl


CLL 1.51:clap:

Pretty excited about this play. Picked up a few thousand shares at $0.88. Been burned by this one in the past though, so taking some off the table at the moment.
Still hold a lot more long term.

[troyl]

Originally posted by Mx6er


Pretty excited about this play. Picked up a few thousand shares at $0.88. Been burned by this one in the past though, so taking some off the table at the moment.
Still hold a lot more long term.

Almost touched the 52 week high today. My average is at $0.95. Probably should take some off the table, but I like where it is headed. Algar construction should be complete in April.

[yoda124]

Originally posted by The_Rural_Juror
I need a cheaper cost trading account than Waterhouse. Does anyone have any recommendations?

I'm with cmc markets right now.$5/trade.Can trade long/short cdn,us, and selective worldwide equities,all commodities,forex, and worldwide indices 24hrs on one platform.Also have the platform loaded on my blackberry for on the go trades.Pretty good if your risk appitite is big.

[mr2mike]

I'd like to say HND has setup good support for the day at 4.68-4.70 range but I can never seem to get that part right. Hoping it hold in there for a higher move on Monday.
Anyone with good advice on an exit strategy for this stock and when to pull the sell trigger?

[yoda124]

tck.b and ford still on a tear.Holding them for the long term.Made a boatload recently on WTN.Holding the bomber BBD.B a fairly large position since $5 a few days ago. It's been a awesome week so far into the new year...:thumbsup:

[Mx6er]

Originally posted by troyl


Almost touched the 52 week high today. My average is at $0.95. Probably should take some off the table, but I like where it is headed. Algar construction should be complete in April.

Yeah the website is great for updates, if you havent already (im sure you have) check it out. It features a weekly slideshow of pictures from Algar construction. Production should be doubled (or more) by this time next year.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by yoda124


I'm with cmc markets right now.$5/trade.Can trade long/short cdn,us, and selective worldwide equities,all commodities,forex, and worldwide indices 24hrs on one platform.Also have the platform loaded on my blackberry for on the go trades.Pretty good if your risk appitite is big.

Holy shit I just checked out the website. Nice interface.

Can you do API trading with it? I am still using questrade and am pretty happy with it. But $5 dollar trades is crazy. Plus everything in one is pretty good as well.


Any complaints?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by The_Rural_Juror
I need a cheaper cost trading account than Waterhouse. Does anyone have any recommendations?

I pay 9.99 with waterhouse active trader, and depending on how active I am, sometimes 7.00

[DRKM]

Oh cfd trading... Risky buisness...

[SilverRex]

ok so friday the US report while I think over all it was negative, the swing was indeed quite volatile, and I apologize for jumping the gun on thinking the advance was it. while I keep the longer term bias that the dollar has bottomed and we're looking for the next major wave up. short term remember I said the dollar chart still hasnt fulfilled its fibo retracement. I know nothing says it has to but typically it should. and so I said we should be careful even if the dollar were to advance it could quickly fall back.

and so it did, to open the week, the dollar has fallen to a newer short term low and it has finally achieving the 38% fibo retracement so far. But of course we wont know if this is the bottom or not. first lets wait for a swing point as stoch is over sold. a gap seen on 2 hour chart that needs to be filled.

the over move in the last two weeks continues to look very much correctional. I'll attampt to go long here with a bit of a stop below that down trend channel.

and dont panic if you couldnt get in the right price, we have plenty of time to see it get out of the current funk, given the next major move up should be a very power ful one.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar011110.jpg

with the short term weakness in the dollar, may I suggest oil's count has be revised. with price taking out the previous high, the count now suggest the previous 5 wave count was yet to be completed. this opens up oil towards 85 and as high as 90. But again, it all depends if the dollar still has room to correct, because if the dollar is done, then oil's top side potential will be exhusted. While still looking for oil to the short side, I'll still hessitate to go long.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil011110.jpg

gold as I recall last week, suggesting to resume its bearish tone, it must take out 1115 for started, it did not do that. and I also caution if the high near 1140 is taking out it should make a move towards 1150 and so it did admid moving even higher than that, the next target level now falls just under 1170, for now I would not give gold higher then of 1170 to begin the next leg down. but if this level is taking out, then my next suggestion is to wait for 1190-1195, I would only consider gold turning bullish again if price exceeds that level. in sumarry, look for short opporunity between current level and 1190 max, similar to the dollar correction, once finished, gold's next move down will be significant.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold011110.jpg

[cosmok]

Good call on natural gas SR, too bad I didn't listen

[mr2mike]

Oh well cos,
You can catch the HNU swing.

I'm getting antsy here and am looking at pulling the trigger. Someone convince me to hold onto HND for a little longer. Do you think Thursday will be benificial for HND? I'm thinking it won't be and should be out of the stock before then. Thoughts? I know there's others in the same HND boat right now at a similar price.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[tryingtobebest1]

When are we getting out of HND SR?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
When are we getting out of HND SR?

while my longer term bias remains down for NG which means up for hnd towards 7.50

for the short term I feel there is a bit of a gap that needs to be filled under 5 dollars. So if you want to take some profit off the table. You can do so and rebuy under 5 hnd

[SilverRex]

ok so from my last post I suggested after the dollar finally touched its 38% fibo support it should spark a mini rally and so far the dollar is climbing a bit and that is forcing oil and gold to temporary turn the corner.

until the dollar advance for real, I still believe this correction may not be finished. for now oil has finally taking a bit of a drop but key remains around 80-81. oil must close below 80 imo to spark further weakness, until then I may expect oil to hold above 80 for possibly one more gyration north

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil011210.jpg

and gold on the 1 hour we see a bit of a gap to be filled just under 1140 and with what appears to be a 5 wave completion, my bet is another 5 wave to setup a higher high above 1160 for a C of an ABC correction. Gold will turn short term bullish to bearish if it takes out 1115. In other words as long as 1115 holds, I expect a bit of a drop then move higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold011210.jpg


as you can see the dollar, I'll continue to expect further side way consolidation between 77-78 unless it can power thru 78 and close above it. Cannot rule out chance that it can still push a bit lower than 76.80 But be patient, once this correction is completed. the next sub wave III will be a nice ride up

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar011210.jpg

[yoda124]

bbd.b anyone?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DRKM]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
whats up with everyone?
no one is posting?

I have been trading off of a code that I have been working on for the past year.

Dec I traded only siganls that I got from it and 21% returns.

This month I am down about 100 dollars as of today.

As soon as I get some more money I will trade speculatively again.

[guessboi]

I don't have time to check out beyond at work any more. :cry:

[SilverRex]

not much has changed since my last chart, so im just going to give a quick comment. the dollar while I expected it to make a bit of a lower low, its happening sooner than I thought, but no matter at this stage I would be looking to go long in the dollar.

one clue is that eur/usd finally tested its 38% fibo resistance of its own, is this what the dollar is waiting for?

with that oil taking out both the uptrend line as well as 80 oil suggest a bit of a lower side, but the next wave up may be capped or limited so perhaps we may see a range of 78-85 for a wave v of V completion? thats my rough estimation.


gold moved down accordingly and if the dollar is to turn around now, then watch gold at 1115. This area must gold if gold has room higher to go, once this area is broken to the down side, I'll be looking to go short on each rally.

[Bisklimpkit]

Anyone have any idea why KMK.V hasn't started trading yet this morning?

edit: Never mind...there it goes now!

[997TT]

Damn u had me going for a second there ... Checked the boards and couldn't see anything. Then logged into Td and saw 1500 shares. Lol

[997TT]

oil just shit the bed....good ole inv reports. haha

[superboyazn]

hey where do u read the oil inventory reports?

[997TT]

I go to the EIA website

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt

[cosmok]

Looks like someone got the NG report early and jumped the gun

[troyl]

For 997TT

Continental Minerals Update
Posted by Peter Grandich at 12:51 PM on Wednesday, January 13th, 2010
I never owned more shares in Continental Minerals (KMK-TSX-V $2.04) as I do as of today. I believe the stock has consolidated nicely in the $2 area. I’m personally speculating that either Jinchuan Group, Zijin Mining, a combination of the two and/or a third party will make a bid for KMK.

I believe there’s an analyst tour at the project right now. I do know that at least two of KMK’s board members are there as well. HD has gone extremely tight-lip with me despite some of my best “charm”.

While some could grow impatient and lead to some profit-taking, I would consider such an event a “last-chance” buying opportunity.

[997TT]

Lol thanks Troyl. My buddy sent me the same things ... He's accumulating shares.

I'm only holding 5k shares but may double down here at $2-2.10.
Fk man when I first heard about the stock it was $1.20. Lol

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by cosmok
Looks like someone got the NG report early and jumped the gun

Options expiry week too...

NG is doing a little megaphone top thing here 6.10 + tomorrow?

[mr2mike]

You think?
Gas prices took a kicking on Monday down to $5 and now are hovering around $5.05 depending on the index. It'll be interesting tomorrow. But it seems news is leaked and the stock doesn't move as big on Thurs anymore.
I'm thinking maybe a 2% move.

I'm in HND so I hope not too drastic.

[cosmok]

Did the same thing last week too, spiked before the report then tanked, I guess we'll see what happens.

The volume picked up at 9:50

http://i50.tinypic.com/rh99xi.png

[Bisklimpkit]

How high is KMK going to go? I missed out on it last time it was up to 2.19 and it has taken a while to get back there.

[997TT]

My thoughts exactly. I'm going to hold my position here ... I think grandich is scheduled to appear on BNN soon. He could promote (pump) the shit outta of it which may generate some buying. Buy hey, 10% is 10% so if you're happy with that then sell.

[broken_legs]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/natural_gas/ngs/ngs.gif


^^^ Anyones notice that we are in the 5 year average now, where as last year (2 weeks ago) we werent?

ng: - 266 bcf

[Bisklimpkit]

I sold a portion, and I'm going to let the rest ride. It will have to drop below 1.90 now for me to lose any money on it.

[SilverRex]

ok so last week while my expecation were oil would be correcting then make a final 5th wave move top some where above 85+, unfortunately, the fact that price had dropped towards 77 suggest our top may have been completed. While the new high above 82+ may look like a breakout, dont forget we are trading februrary contract and if you were using the februrary contract for the last few months then you will notice the near 84 high was never broken (double top) And because of this, add the fact that I believe this week the dollar may have completed its correction. Then you will get further weakness in oil. My suggestion is to begin shorting the rallies

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil011810.jpg

as for gold, while it did play out the way it should dropping towards 1115 then rallied some what. All eyes is on the current up trend line shown. My view is, its only a matter of time until gold will resume its decline. But lets wait until it breaks the line to the down side first. because if it does not, potentially gold can still make one more dash above 1160+ then it should be well over. So there fore I'll either wait for a clear break down before jumping in short or wait for a higher price. either way longer term suggest gold has plenty of room downwards to go.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold011810.jpg

and the dollar, after a few weeks for correction, lets hope the 38% fibo support is the bottom and my expectation this week is to see the dollar advance to new heights.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar011810.jpg

[broken_legs]

Martin Luther King day today. Us markets are closed and everyone here is hungover.

[SilverRex]

while I think the s&p chart is a bit more clear, the dji is following pretty close. Looking at this, I believe a large substantial correction is on the way. Regardless if the market has fully recovered or further deflationary abounds. The market is due for a very good pull back 10-20%

notice price has continue to hug the up trend line (in red) its only a matter of time, the sharp ascending wedge tend to be terminal, and when price breaks down it will be like a snow ball. Initial target I am going to set between 8800-9400. If price takes out 8800, then you will know deflation is back in full force. But we will look at that when it does get there.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow011810.jpg

[mr2mike]

Good observation. I will be waiting on the side lines to pounce.

How does this effect the Hori beta stocks that are betting on the downturns? ie: HND or HOD?
I'm kinda new to those types of stocks so, do they benefit as a whole, the markets take a kicking and possibly (not always) the commodities will in-turn as well feel the effects?

Thanks

[tryingtobebest1]

Why did people stopped posting here! I love to read you guys ideas and just "what's up's" in this thread!(

[Canmorite]

Anyone know of any other single (non-leveraged) oil ETFS that trade on the TSX? The Horizons and Powershares ones are super illiquid. Claymore doesn't have any either...

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Canmorite
Anyone know of any other single (non-leveraged) oil ETFS that trade on the TSX? The Horizons and Powershares ones are super illiquid. Claymore doesn't have any either...

Not that I'm aware of. It was explained before but since I no longer trade ETF's other than XIU. I don't even remember how I explained it but it doesn't matter if it's super illiquid, your order is processed immediately. You don't need an actual buyer to purchase your order. The units are taken in by the fund company.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by max_boost


Not that I'm aware of. It was explained before but since I no longer trade ETF's other than XIU. I don't even remember how I explained it but it doesn't matter if it's super illiquid, your order is processed immediately. You don't need an actual buyer to purchase your order. The units are taken in by the fund company.

^^ This. The fund mimics the movement of the underlying asset - The fund manager (or managing computer) is making the market. Unless you're dropping millions the liquidity shouldn't matter.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by broken_legs


^^ This. The fund mimics the movement of the underlying asset - The fund manager (or managing computer) is making the market. Unless you're dropping millions the liquidity shouldn't matter.

Not really. The low liquid etfs like HFU and HQD do not let you short unless the volume is high.

But with HOU and HGU you can short any amount that I have tried.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by DRKM


Not really. The low liquid etfs like HFU and HQD do not let you short unless the volume is high.

But with HOU and HGU you can short any amount that I have tried.

Are you shorting the ETF for the decay?

[Canmorite]

Originally posted by max_boost


Not that I'm aware of. It was explained before but since I no longer trade ETF's other than XIU. I don't even remember how I explained it but it doesn't matter if it's super illiquid, your order is processed immediately. You don't need an actual buyer to purchase your order. The units are taken in by the fund company.

Ah, units-great. Thanks!

[SilverRex]

it appears the call that dollar is resuming its upward advance is correct. as noted from the last post after a bit of a pull back the dollar is beginning to show signs of an impulsive climb. and with it taking out a down trending neckline resistance. the idea is small pull back, strong surge. initial target area would be between 80-81

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar012010.jpg

And with strong dollar, that will not bold well for gold and oil alike. for oil, watch the 77 level, I would suggest taking out 77 will be very bearish, but cannot rule out a larger wave ii correction that may still take us to 80+ so which ever comes first. any rally would be a great shorting atmoshpere.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil012010.jpg

gold is also finding exhustion, while the short term looks weak, I expect price to test the 1115 area for clues, its hard to say if gold will begin a multi wave decline starting now, however you cant just get the one position right either. while shorting gold is never fun even though technically it suggest so, but if you are one of the brave ones, then you will know you ought to have more than just one position. In that case, shorting at current levels would be a good first position, and if gold is to make a bit of a higher high above 1160+ then I'll suggest thats where your second shorting spot comes in.

anyways, until gold takes out 1115, i'll remain neutral for the moment.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold012010.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DRKM]

Must have been shitty... Dollar is soaring!!!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Thanks SR,
so are you talking about the March contract already for oil?

because right now its at 77.45

below that and bearsh right?

any news on inventory anyone?

actually im talking feb oil, but hod we are trading march oil. but no matter they move both about the same amount.

looks like gold took out 1115, so its short on rallies towards 1020 is my take.

[cosmok]

Oil inventory is tomorrow due to the holiday Monday in the US. ^Nice call on the dollar

[Mark_Nguyen]

anyone still holding hnd?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Mark_Nguyen
anyone still holding hnd?

i am

since I believe in further strength in the dollar that should translate into weak oil which in turn mean weak NG

im gunning for hnd back to mid 7s

[SilverRex]

it appears the first drop in a substantial correction may have started. initital target back to 8800-9400

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow012010.jpg

[civic_rida]

Im wondering if I should jump into hou or hold off.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Are you shorting the ETF for the decay?

No I am followign the model that I built off of Non linear ARIMA modeling. I model the spreads of the day/nights and place my orders accordingly. With the low volume ETFs there seems to bigger discrepancies in the spreads so when you go to close your order there is less profit generally. So I try and just stick to the bear or the bull.

I have started to model options as well but getting data is kinda tricky...

I would like to model the Nasdaq options.

[cosmok]

NG had a net decline of 245 Bcf.

[Meback]

^ any word out on oil? I'm anticipating a decline, but if NG is down, logic would suggest oil be too.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Meback
^ any word out on oil? I'm anticipating a decline, but if NG is down, logic would suggest oil be too.
Not always, the oil report is out in less than 25 minutes here. (http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/wpsr.txt)

[broken_legs]

wow, another big draw down..... and ng is selling off

Weather is supposed to get cold again too

Everyone selling commodities today and going for safety?

or will the oil report set the tone for ng too?

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by Mark_Nguyen
anyone still holding hnd?

Holding as well. Don't have a top price target. $7 would be nice but things change.

[cosmok]

Crude oil inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels
Motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels
Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels

[SilverRex]

ok just a quick update on the dollar. it appears the dollar has resume its uptrend. My current expecation is that the dollar will pull back little and rise strongly with initial target area in the 80-81.

However given the daily chart there looks like a bit of a gap left just under 78. Do not rule out a pull back to under 78 before taking off again.

however I will have to be cautious that an alt count for a larger correction could still take hold. we would know this if price takes out 77.40 and price may then retrace to a newer low under 76. either way the medium term is the dollar looks hot to climb higher.

that would mean over time oil and gold will drop further.

notice for almost a while year, the 10 and 20 EMA has been bearish? it never made a death cross until december when the dollar made a sharp move and broke out of its funk.

since then it has still retain a bullish signal on the 10/20 EMA and it has re-opened up which signals further advance.

I wont load up the boat, it is better to play with multiple position. if the dollar does pull back or offer a steeper retracement then I would go long with additional positions. other wise, enjoy the trend while it last

also notice the green area looks to be a reverse H&S, that will target the 82 area. another way to confirm the dollar's recent advance is no bs

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar012110-1.jpg

[DRKM]

Originally posted by cosmok
Crude oil inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels
Motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels
Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels

Ouch. That is pretty bearish. Refineries must be hurting...

When was the last time that Gasoline inventories decreased?

DamnI was shorting PRE yesterday and covered at the end of the day. Of course it tanks more today... Not to mention I got a signal HOD and did not act on it this morning.


I hate when I don't follow my own strategy...

[DRKM]

Oh does anyone have acsess to a bloomberg terminal? I would like to get some historical options data. I would make it worth your while if this data could be had.

[SilverRex]

well the dollar's strength is back and as expected. after correcting for some time it has finally pushed up to new heights. My current view is to see that the dollar make a bit of a further retracement to under 78 just to complete a gap refil on the daily chart. but you cant rule out dollar can suddenly make a move here by taking out 78.50 If you last check my dollar chart, I suggested a bit of a RH&S targeting 82 area. So the strategy is to buy the dips

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar012210.jpg

looking at oil, I was surprised at how bearish it was. thinking it would make a higher move towards 80+ for a better shorting area, unfortunately my other scenario played out but quickly taking out the important 77 area. once it did, that was the signal to sell short further. next target now would be 72 in my book. So unless oil regains above 78.50 I'll suggest short every rally until then.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil012210.jpg


finally I'm putting up the gold on the daily chart. notice the 3 fan lines. this will put gold at 1070 a very important number. Taking out 1070 will all but ensure another drop towards 1000, while everyone may believe 1000 is going to be the buying opporunity of their life time, I'll say the hidden significance of loosing the 1070 support is more than anyone can fathom. Looking at the over all structure if you stick with EW and technical principles. its quite obvious gold has produced two full waves north with a tringle consolidation pattern in the middle. A pattern like this is usually terminal and is bearish. You have alot of over lapping waves in the process which tells you that it is corrective. I have some EW expert putting out calls towards 500. While I do not recommend selling your physical I will certainly recommend you have extra ammo ready, because if and when gold does come down hard. That will be the buying of your life. Until then, lets watch 1070 and 1000 area gold closely. We will soon find out during this correction in the market place that if deflation is full steam ahead or simply a healthy pull back where inflation is commanding the helm

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold012210.jpg

[KappaSigma]

So what is everyone's guess on a market correction? How much? For how long?

Im sitting on a 100% cash position right now....

[SilverRex]

while I do believe the dollar has bottomed and the market has topped and we should begin a more substantial pull back and worse case a start of a new down leg, but looking at today DOW's weekly close will be very important.

If DOW is to close below 10430 today, then further weakness is all but certain. looking at the previous days when an advance bar closes below previous 3 days's low, an indication further down side ahead and some cases a start of a new down trend.

if you look at dow's rally ever since it touched 6500 it has never put in an advance declining bar on the weekly chart. And today, it may just do that. looking back at all the advance bar, tell me which one that doesnt fulfill its weakness?

also the daily 10/20EMA hasnt cross over during the run up, so if it does produce a death cross, another confirmation we're headed much lower. Definately my recommendation is not to buy equities here folks. if you have the ammo, try shorting instead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow012210.jpg

[cosmok]

Anyone going to short emerging markets here?

[tryingtobebest1]

HND taking a major dump?(((

[mr2mike]

Hold in there. It's because people are banking on the weather forecast. Nexen released this yesterday:

The 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts, show below normal
temperatures shifting into the East. Some longer term forecasts
are calling for sustained cold temperatures across much of the
U.S. for the month of February.

The EIA reported a withdrawal of 245 Bcf versus expectations for a withdrawal in the 250 range by several of the major forecasters. The concensus on the Bloomberg survey however was -228. Storage now stands at 2,607, which is only 22 Bcf higher than last year, and 6 Bcf below the 5 year average.


Next week could show a recovery. I'm debating on picking up some more HND with this pull back.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by mr2mike
I'm debating on picking up some more HND with this pull back.
I'm thinking of getting back into it myself, seems like NG wants to test $6 though

[SilverRex]

i also wanted to mention while we're covering the DOW as we are at a very critical stage and time of the year. Looking at the monthly chart it was to my understand and upon further investigation, the closing price in January does have a huge impact as to what the market may look like in the following 6 months.

Other than the one year marked in brown arrows. When ever the closing Jan price is lower than the opening price to begin the year. the following 5 month will be bearish. Even a best case scenario only leaves the market back to where it started. And vice versa if it closes higher, indicating a bullish tone for the following 5 months.

Now given the nature of EW calls and technical analysis, so far it is setup to fall. If this continues to play out just like all other January's then chances are good if price closes below 10430 at the end of the month, then your looking at no more new highs for the next few months with great probability for a substiantial correction.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dowjan-1.jpg

[djayz]

I picked up 2 position of HND today, I'm guessing we are going to see some price volatility so I should be able to flip for a little bit of coin.

[revelations]

Originally posted by civic_rida
Im wondering if I should jump into hou or hold off.

Short term, look for movement sideways and then upward later next week. Consider entering a position then.

[themack89]

Anyone planning a short on Sugar when it starts to roll over? :hitit:

[SilverRex]

cQyFxBG6dhY

[tryingtobebest1]

So, what is our next week going to look like?

[ckangarloo]

My new favorite site:

http://canadiancouchpotato.com/

[SilverRex]

ok so from last week's chart I said dow has finally signal a top and a break down. and not only did we get that, we also got further confirmation of a trend change by seeing a very substantial closing at the end of friday. Dow had closed below the previous 9 week low which by defination is quite bearish, the 10/20 EMA also made a death cross on the daily chart. Like it or not. the next 5 months will be quite a ride. Looking at the chart, the trend line that had set up the run ever since last march was finally broken. This Sharp ascending triangle, once broken, according to EW principles would tend to target price where it first started. Yes that means if the technical world plays out, the target is back at 6400. A double dip recession? or worse? There will be a lot of time yet to confirm a few more things, but right now I will put out a conservative target down to towards 8800 first. We will look at further weakness once we get there. Yes alot can be changed in a few months so we wont look to ahead of ourselves.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow012510.jpg

Now looking at oil, we see clearly the current over head resistance lies at 77. which my current expecation is a bit of a pull back then oil will resuming lower. I'll only fathom a steeper rally if 77 is taking out. So that should give everyone a key area to place their stop loss

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil012510.jpg


and gold, having to take out 1115 which suggest further down side ahead, we got that but not quite the 1070 as I hoped. And so gold hasnt really made a big technical break down just yet. It is in a position to either form a larger ABC correction, that will depend if the dollar is in a similar standing. So my view is for now my expecation is that gold should not take out 1120, and looking for a chance to short the next rally down towards 1020. But if 1120 is taking out, then it would appear more likely gold is going after a larger corretion and price may indeed want to move towards 1160 or slightly higher. But no matter that will just give us a even better position to short again.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold012510.jpg


and notice how I said gold may have a chance at a higher correction? looking at the dollar, the recent move north may appear completed. But the gap under 78 still concerns me, so I am going to suggest the dollar will find a way to get under 78 before we can looking for it to really begin the next flight towards 81-82.

speaking so, the dollar also has a chance of a larger correction on the daily chart. What I mean is during the dollar's last major correction between Dec 21st and Jan 13th. The pull back by all means was not that big. And usually the correction that follows a wave I completion tends to be quite larger and in some cases even giving back 78.6%. So I have to put out an alternate call as well and watch the dollar at 77.40 an important level for now, that if this is taking out, we may witness a larger correction. If not the current standing is that the dollar would find ways a bit under 78 then make a strong move higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar012510.jpg

[SilverRex]

i forgot to mention once more on DOW that we still have one more week to close out Jan, so the closing price is another confirmation for further weakness ahead. I'll stick to my 10430 call, that if DOW closes below this at the end of the week, it'll be the final nail of the coffin for a medium term outlook.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by SilverRex
i forgot to mention once more on DOW that we still have one more week to close out Jan, so the closing price is another confirmation for further weakness ahead. I'll stick to my 10430 call, that if DOW closes below this at the end of the week, it'll be the final nail of the coffin for a medium term outlook.

I sure hope a huge correction is in play. I will gladly sit on my 100% cash psition for the next 4-6 months for a nice big low.