Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


I sure hope a huge correction is in play. I will gladly sit on my 100% cash psition for the next 4-6 months for a nice big low.

yes thats the expecation anyways from a technical view. but even so, dont jump all in just because you saw the market corrected 20%, remember to have ammo ready so that you can slowly add to your position. that last thing is to run out of money to add and missed opportunity.

I cant stress enough how many times I have mostly picked the right trend but the timing was always off for me.

[troyl]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


I sure hope a huge correction is in play. I will gladly sit on my 100% cash psition for the next 4-6 months for a nice big low.

Why not short the market and get some return on that cash.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by troyl


Why not short the market and get some return on that cash.

Im with Troyl on this one...

[mr2mike]

For those still in HNU.

I'm really thinking of selling today, waiting for the cold weather news down east for the week. Draw will be down again, Wed, the price will drop, news breaks on Thurs.
Buy back in where there's a hnu pullback to the $4.30 range. I'm getting tired of seeing the rollercoaster that I could be in and out on rather than riding the peaks and valleys.

Anyone else have thoughts? SR, are you hanging on till you see your $7 price?

[djayz]

Wow so quiet in here...

Anyways if you don't already know Itrade is having it's customer appreciation day today which means free trades up to $100 in commission, that's 10 trades @ 9.99 free :clap:

Anyone holding onto HND still? I sold both my positions that I picked up earlier for a nice 11% gain.

[tryingtobebest1]

MR2MIKE were you talking about HNU or HND?
And what is the source for news?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by mr2mike
For those still in HNU.

I'm really thinking of selling today, waiting for the cold weather news down east for the week. Draw will be down again, Wed, the price will drop, news breaks on Thurs.
Buy back in where there's a hnu pullback to the $4.30 range. I'm getting tired of seeing the rollercoaster that I could be in and out on rather than riding the peaks and valleys.

Anyone else have thoughts? SR, are you hanging on till you see your $7 price?

yes im going to hold onto till at least 6 hnd my target is mid 7s

and ive exited oil from my last short since 78ish, and waiting for oil to rally a bit back near 77 to short again.

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
MR2MIKE were you talking about HNU or HND?
And what is the source for news?

HND.
The source of the news is the listing of natural gas draw for the week. The other source is the weathernetwork.com
Natural gas storage news is released Thurs but we've all seen the move happen on Wed now rather than Thurs. News is obviously being leaked.

Links as to where to find the reports are in past posts by other traders on here.

[mr2mike]

Out at $5.07, healthy gain. Trying to resist my last mistake of jumping right into hnu with no analysis on it because of my "gain euphoria".

Will see what happens this week. If it pulls back, I will be back in. I might be looking at a position with hnu if it gets some resistance.

[tryingtobebest1]

I like HND this morning!))

[cosmok]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
I like HND this morning!))
I hate working 12 hour days and not being around a computer

[SilverRex]

well while not much change since my last posting. but I'll throw a quick update.

looking at the dollar, while i would like to see a bit of a lower pull back but I did mention once78.5 is taking out it will be read to punch higher and so it did, however the run off the 38% fibo at 76.10 does not appear to be impulsive which tells me the scenario that the dollar is still require to push lower may be in play. We may be into a bit of a larger correction that should still take the dollar under 78. Thats my assumption at the moment. with a megaphone pattern on the top side, a break below 78.40 would initiate this call.

so in summary, you may still go long or hold onto your long as long as 78.40 hold but my expecation is for the dollar to head under 78 to complete this correction. make or break is at 77.40. Another level to watch if and when the dollar does pull back deeper than we would like. taking 77.40 would open the idea that a even larger correction is in play on the daily chart and we could have the dollar make a move down the low 76.

I do realize there are gaps written all under and will be filled one day, the question is will it be now or much later. While I do not perfer the dollar to become this weak we have to keep this in mind.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar012810.jpg

and for gold, my expecation is a bit of a rally towards 1115 then resume down wards. Similar to the dollar, a larger correction is my guess if 1115-1120 is taking out otherwise look for opportunity to go short on the next rally.However I would hessitate to go short either, my count may suggest gold to dip a bit lower, but it does look like it wants to bottom here.

on this chart the up trend line that goes back to 681 will be the critical support for bulls. ultimately this line will have to be taking out if we want to take the path for gold towards 500. but we talk about that when the day comes. Lets not assume anything until further weakness unfolds.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold012810.jpg

well I am happy that since taking out 77, I said the next probable target will be in the 72s. we got just that. And if I expect the dollar to give back some, then oil may finally move to the upside. For the moment I am expecting oil to make a run towards 77 then go short with stops above.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil012810.jpg

[SilverRex]

also watch DOW at 10430

we only have 2 days before Jan comes to a close. If the DOW closes below that level, then it will set up for a nice fall for the next few months.

[themack89]

I think it would be beneficial for most people to just do Calendar or Calendar variations simulating covered calls or married puts (lowers your cost basis).. Could probably bank an easy 30% / year

PS There is alot of commercial oil shorts that have to be covered, I would be expecting a larger rally than 77 lol. It's 11% propportionate to open interest, the "high" shorting levels in the past few years has been around 8 to 9% of OI, and now the 11% level is starting to roll over, we will have to wait until Friday for the CFTC reports though.

[civic_rida]

anyone still holding wamuq?
Hoping for a big day today.

[Proyecto2000]

wow suncor sure took a dive

[DJ_NAV]

^whats the reason for that?? I haven't seen suncor go below $35 for a while now.

[mr2mike]

My only guess is gas prices are hovering in the $5 range again and they're predominantly a gas company.
Q4 is coming out too. Also like what SilverRex said, there could be weakness.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civic_rida
anyone still holding wamuq?
Hoping for a big day today.

still holding, my entire family holds quite a bit.

so far from the hear, it appears the judge wont disband the EC, definately will be interesting tomorrow

[DRKM]

Originally posted by themack89
I think it would be beneficial for most people to just do Calendar or Calendar variations simulating covered calls or married puts (lowers your cost basis).. Could probably bank an easy 30% / year

PS There is alot of commercial oil shorts that have to be covered, I would be expecting a larger rally than 77 lol. It's 11% propportionate to open interest, the "high" shorting levels in the past few years has been around 8 to 9% of OI, and now the 11% level is starting to roll over, we will have to wait until Friday for the CFTC reports though.

The open intrest is pretty intresting. But the fundementals are pretty rough at the moment for crude.

I think that the butterfly spread would work reasonably well in the near future with oil near its support and the open intrest so high.

Ill be playing one pretty soon.,

[SilverRex]

ok so today is the day we've been watching for. What will be the close for the DOW today.

Lets look at the chart first, as you can see, it appears DOW has completed a 5 wave pattern for a 1st leg down and once price breaks out of the descending angle we will have a bit of a pull back. unless price suddenly reverses in a big way. Dow imo will remain extremely bearish unless it can close above 10525.

And for monthly chart watcher, I've mention the importance of the opening and closing price in January. If DOW closes below 10430 today, then the next 5-6 month will not bold well and this sets up a wave III once a correction takes place.

It is my expecation that we shall see a 3 wave correction towards 10400 starting next week if not today.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow012910.jpg

and with the dollar I mention that the current rise in the last few days looks a bit too corrective and so I now expect the dollar still has room to fall. My expecation is wait for price to break the red neck line and the 10/20 EMA makes a death cross then you will know it has popped short term. Target remains anywhere between 77-78 for the time being.

And with a short term weakness for the dollar, that should finally give oil a boost towards 77 which is the target I've been waiting for to go short once again and gold a chance to make a bit of a rally. Will gold make a larger correction? we'll just have to wait and see.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar012910.jpg

[SilverRex]

WAMUQ ready to bust out.

london has moved almost 50%+

hopefully thats a breakout for us commons

[civic_rida]

go wamuq :thumbsup:

[Ukyo8]

Originally posted by civic_rida
go wamuq :thumbsup:

:thumbsup:

[tryingtobebest1]

What is the prediction for the upcomming week? Any thoughts anywone?

[revelations]

Overseas markets are tanking right now..... Shanghai is down 2% almost.

I wonder what the TSX will do?

[SilverRex]

ok so the dollar did not break the up trendline to begin a correction, it inched up higher and higher. but no matter my view remains as I am expecting the dollar to begin a pull back but first lets wait for a break of the up trend line shown in red. the 5th wave had a bit of an extension, but since it still moved less than the sub wave iii I will call the 5 wave completed now. with a short term weakness in the dollar I expect gold and oil to gain some strength going forward.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar020110.jpg

as you can see I oil is similar to the dollar and requires price to break the same line that is pushing it lower and lower. Again wait for the break above 75, however that does not leave awhole lot of upside as I believe the 77 should hold oil down, and if it doesnt, something else may be in the works, perhaps a steeper retracement after the initial first leg down? if that is so I'll happily wait for a higher oil to go short.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil020110.jpg

finally gold, while I was expecting a possible push for one final low I feel the way the pattern is developing the next move will be to the upside. look for gold to eventual make it run towards 1115, depending on how price reacts we will then know if gold has a bigger rally or just a minor one. over all tone continues to favor the down side for gold.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold020110.jpg

[SilverRex]

oil has tested 77 the target in whch I was expecting it to reach. Now this area will either be a good place to go short or fail to hold may result in
further upside in oil.


gold is in a similar stanze flerting around 1115. Again failure to hold will push gold higher but areas like this is the 1st place to attampt short with a tight stop

[cosmok]

Crude oil inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels
Motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels
Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.9 million
Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

alright lets see what our charts bring today.

so the drop wasnt short lived after breaking an up trend. While the dollar resumes its bullish tone, the weak corrections has me concern. Either the dollar is super bullish or we could be headed for a larger corrrection.

The only thing I can comment is we just have to wait and see. Current key support now between 78.25-78.50 if the dollar has any more upside based on the previous price projection (in purple) from its last rise, then we will soon be looking at 80-81 area to be tested.

so continue to think long unless the low 78s gets taking out, then we can analyze and see if the dollar is headed for a larger abc correction that will be lower than 76.5

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar020410.jpg

for oil, after completing its own set of wave counts and met our target in the 72 area. my expecation that it will reach 77 not only came out perfectly, it has exceeded my target. With oil trading above 77 has me concern if this correction has more legs. but since price is now back under 77. My attampt would be to short oil towards fresh lows, it is still possible this is the larger wave II correction and the start of a new trend south. First lets see if oil can take out 75, then the south path will look more realistic, but if the recent top at 78 is taken out, then I will hold and see how far this correction can go and look for a higher shorting opportunity

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil020410.jpg

gold too played out just like oil, it quickly reached my 1115 target soon after breaking out of a descending wedge. Similar to oil, since it took out a previous support at 1115 and reaching as far as 1125 I have to watch it closely to see which way gold wants to go. set the recent top as stop if your shorting. So far gold managed to be kept below the down trend line connected back in late november. However key moments will be the next few days as we see how gold reacts between the drawn resistance and support. depending on which one it is closer at you may short or buy with tight stops around them. My expecation is, which ever red line fails first will be the bluff we need to go in the same direction.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold020410.jpg

[SilverRex]

for the dow, as I was expect it will break out of its own consolidation pattern to the upside. While over all I believe DOW is in a sell off. this recent rally shouldnt last too long. we have met the min move required hitting off the 38% fibo. either dow will head a bit higher or this may be it folks.

still holding my longer term view that dow will find its way towards 9000 in the coming months.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow020410.jpg

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold020410b.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
$4!!!!!!

PS what do you do if you dont mind me asking

are you a financial planner/analysit/advisor?
or is this just a hobby haha

are you asking me?

this is just what I do on my spare time

been trading forex since 2001, and since then learned quite alot tru alot of trial and error.

some times it can get quite complicated, but I like to keep it simple, the obvious

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[cosmok]

Originally posted by cosmok
Anyone going to short emerging markets here?
:thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

not much to report other than things are continuing south as expected.

weak oil, weak gold and certainly bye bye equities.

the dow continues to show weakness, over the course of the next few months I expect DOw to first retest 9000, if this is the mother of drop wave III then based on EW it would target 1200 DOW, but lets not scare ourselves. regardless of this happening or not, I think DOW still needs to test 9000 we will see how she holds up.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow020510.jpg

[revelations]

Anyone trading bear ETFs?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey SR whats a good time to get into HOU?
when will oil bottom?

well if your planning to go long on oil, only keep it to day trading. and buy at support say 69, 65, 55, etc since those are previously support.

but if your looking at trends, the trend is clearly down for oil.

my initial target has oil hitting at least 65, then 55, but I dont be surprise to see a bounce some where in between

[SilverRex]

so was expecting the dollar to move into 80-81 range and we got exactly that.

with the dollar just came off the upper trend channel. I believe the advance will correct a bit. Yes, the bleeding should stop for the moment.

we'll review the charts again monday morning.

have a great weakend all,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar020510.jpg

[mr2mike]

Markets are pretty up and down today with oil and gas. Hopefully monday, it makes some decisions up or down.

[tryingtobebest1]

HND fall down last week, any ideas for the upcomming week?

[SilverRex]

ok lets review quickly for those that still confused at the current market movements. I believe we have seen the top in equities as well as gold and oil, and such the trend will continue to be pointing south for the next few months.

gold and oil is really moving in a similar structure based upon a strengthning dollar.

My current count has it that oil is in a sub iii of III that will bring it back to 60-65 oil. The only other path I can see is if the recent low holds ad there is a possiblility that oil could still be in a larger abc correction that can still take it back silight above 76. either way the over all trend is down, it will take a completely a full turn around and 15 dollars back up before things look good again for bulls. So I suggest continue to short the rallies.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil020810.jpg


as I said gold is in the same boat. on the daily chart we see gold took out the 1070 low which is bearish, this multi month up trending demand line (in red) goes way back to when gold first hit 681, breaking this has got to be significant. Not only that it is also the 3rd fan wave being broken as well. there fore I will believe gold has topped out above 1200 and is looking to make lower lows for the next few months. The only light of the tunnel for bulls is that positive divergence that appears to be occuring on stochastic underneath. Then again that means gold will have to break above 1160 to suggest any recount. Other wise, gold like oil, either will continue to make a move lower this week or worse case scenario may suggest it to pop slightly back above 1125 then resume its trend downwards.

For those that are shorting long term, based on the calls for the last few weeks, you really should have shorted it since 1160 when we were looking for a wave ii correction. So if you havent already done so, it may be best to be patient and look for a stronger rally before jumping in.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold020810.jpg

as the dollar suggest, I was expecting it to get back to 80-81 and now that we are there, this may not stop. if my count is correct, then the dollar continues to be in a strong up trend. meaning a quick pull back then surge. How will we know the dollar is in a strong wave III move north? as long as 78.50 holds, continue to buy the rallies

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar020810.jpg

finally just a quick snapshot on the dow, I thought the last rise to 10300 was a wave ii correction. However I may have to recount it as wave iv instead with a 5 wave just completed on friday. I now expect DOW to make a bit of a corrective rally then resume downwards with its own wave III which should take it right down to 9000

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow020810.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok going to look at silver quickly, I typically dont post silver chart just because one can look at how gold performs. The only difference is silver tends to move alot more.

and if I recall the last time I suggest silver was on a path towards 14-15. I cannot believe we are there now.

it was also obvious the weakness of silver came on the heels of breaking down from a H&S pattern, not only that, similar to gold, it has also broken down below its own demanding trendline that has been holding silver up for the longest time. So yes, silver is also very weak right now. and based on the strong recent sell off, silver may have already hit its own sub iii, remember when the market goes, silver normally leads the sell off first. hence moving alot more at the beginning. and with this, I expect it will struggle side ways for some time until other market catches up then they will all move south together once more. For bulls, silver needs to recapture 16.75 to suggest any recount. other wise you can day trade the swings and sell short the rallies

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver020810.jpg

[mr2mike]

Wow, HND sure took off from this morning.

[SilverRex]

gold at 1060 must hold, other wise it would appear the recent rally is very much a mini correction, And with that yes, further down side ahead. Oil is in the exact same scenario

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold020910.jpg

[Mark_Nguyen]

whats the trading range for Natural Gas

[mr2mike]

Gas price down $0.21 from yesterday. Wish, I picked up hnd when it hit that $4.70 range. I was waiting for $4.50.

Is it don't pretty cold in the East US this week?

[SilverRex]

alright so while dollar is very much still in an uptrend, the expecation of a mini pull back is happening as expected. right now the recent mini sell off in the dollar does appear to look corrective and so I expect the dollar to hold at 79.50 then make a move higher once again.

even if the dollar were to crash thru 79.50 we still have plenty of support next at 78.50 and would still look at buying.

the dollar would only turn bearish short term ic 78.50 is taking out. Until then, continue to buy on dips in the dollar

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar021010.jpg

as for oil, after achievnig a 5 wave down to 69.50, it has since embarked on a correction on its own. if the dollar is to make another run north, then oil will eventually top out and resume its spiral. My expecation is oil to find heavy resistance some where in its 38% fibo of its entire drop from 84 to 69 some where around 75. I will not be concern with oil's bearish sentiment unless it takes out 77.

for confirmation, if oil takes out 72.50, then we know the path to lower low will be in progress. My next target for oil to reach is 65.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil021010.jpg

and for gold as I posted yesterday, really its similar to oil in the lower time frame. but on the daily chart as you can see, it has since broken the up demand trend line which should be a warning sign that these supports are not holding. and now gold is right at the door step of retesting the broken trend line, it is my expecation that once this retest is completed, it will head back down. First for those that play it safe, wait for gold to take out 1060 to confirm the nex down leg has started. Target back to 1000

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold021010.jpg

[troyl]

Second time this week action direct has been down! Come on RBC :banghead:

[SilverRex]

so far the dow has been moving exactly what I thought it would be. an ABC pattern which is corrective and soon will break down once again.

the only other path I see is if the current ABC is only a larger A with a higher in the works, but I am sure you get the idea, the over all feel to this recent rally looks to be limited. watch out below the next time 9900 doesnt hold.

it will take oil and gold with it

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow021110.jpg

[SilverRex]

I dont usually post the euro as pretty much it moves along with the dollar, however the euro just broke down from another mini uptrend line, appears the correction may be over.

while things can always go in reverse, but looking at the trend, it appears more likely the euro is ready to head to new lows.

which would translate to stronger dollar, weaker oil and gold

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro021110-1.jpg

[s_havinga]

I hope so, picked up HOD yesterday around 10.38.

[SilverRex]

if the price projection is correct and this is a sub iii of III down, then we are looking at euro getting back to 1.3000-1.3200 area. a 4-500 pt drop would translate to dollar popping to 82.63

therefore DOW back to 9000 or below is completely possible. After all the fed already opened its big mouth indicating it would sell down securities and possibly of a rate increase which is dollar bullish.

[DRKM]

Markets are choppy as hell today. What just happened that everything has exploded?

[djayz]

Just loaded up heavily on HGD, don't see this upside today as holding and being very strong.

Hope your TA is as good as always SR :D

[SilverRex]

as expected after the euro closed below the red neckline, it was nothing but down.

while on the daily chart, euro has fulfilled a min wave III requirements meaning it can rally here if it wants too

but on the lower time frame, it suggest euro may be in an wave III extension which would stretch even lower. There fore unless 1.3850 is broken to the upside, I continue to favor more weakness ahead for the euro which translate to dollar heading higher.

which again also means oil to 65 and gold to 1000 is extremely possible at this juncture.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro021210-1.jpg

[cosmok]

191 BCF draw of NG

[SilverRex]

ok after the holidays let see what this week brings.

lets look at the dollar first. while the over all trend is bullish in the dollar, what happen last friday appears to be corrective, meaning the mini correction isnt done. and with a negative divergence showing up on stoch, I believe the next move is a bit more dollar weakness that should bring it under the previous low.

so long as 78.50 isnt broken to the down side, I believe we may be headed into a flat correction before embarking a higher move towards 82.63 and with this that means oil and gold may have a little bit higher to go as well.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar021610.jpg


as you can see if the dollar is headed lower right now, oil may move higher yet again, it still hasnt change the fact that oil is still in a down trend. but the rally could result in oil pushing a higher high above 78, if that is the case I expect a good shorting opportunity to arise unless of course oil takes out 72.50 which I said last week to initial the next leg down which ever comes first.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil021610.jpg

while gold is moving similar to oil at the moment, for the time being I dont expect gold to be able to move above the red neckline in which it broke back in janurary. I expect gold to find heavy resistant as it tries to move towards 1150-1160. look for the next pop to be a place to go short.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold021610.jpg

for NG, continue to short NG unless it takes out 6.08, otherwise the next target is towards 4.50

[mr2mike]

Been away for a bit. Glad to see I've only missed one up/down with NG.
NG price today has dropped below $5. First time in a little while for this.

Remember, this is not the same as what SilverRex is reporting. Mine's from a NG marketing group.

Staying out of NG till I catch a better part of the swing.

[troyl]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Been away for a bit. Glad to see I've only missed one up/down with NG.
NG price today has dropped below $5. First time in a little while for this.

Remember, this is not the same as what SilverRex is reporting. Mine's from a NG marketing group.

Staying out of NG till I catch a better part of the swing.

NG below 5? I see a day low of $5.27 on the nymex.

[mr2mike]

Sorry, I knew I'd get crap for posting that price. My company markets on an agreement under AECO 5A pricing so that's what I see.

Monday: $5.25
Tues: $5.11
Wed: $4.95

I'll admit, still learning all the ins and outs of pricing but what I'm trying to say is the price is currently still dropping so people in hnd, should do well right now.

[SilverRex]

i read Feb 18th is another important date, perhaps a cycle turn date, perhaps this is where all things begin to sink again, plus IMF announced the selling of another 191 ton gold, it couldnt came at a better time since logical one can only assume they must know something. (gold about to crash?) to cash out sort of speak

[SilverRex]

look how similar we are currently comparing to last year, according to a cyclist, we could be headed for another crisis month some where in May 2010

so far the chart lines up well and points that way. short term I expect the dollar to soon find its way to 82.63 and it will be heavily shorted at this area, but over time I see the dollar making new highs above 90


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar021810.jpg

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex
look how similar we are currently comparing to last year, according to a cyclist, we could be headed for another crisis month some where in May 2010

so far the chart lines up well and points that way. short term I expect the dollar to soon find its way to 82.63 and it will be heavily shorted at this area, but over time I see the dollar making new highs above 90


So what vehicles do you think are going to be the best to load up short? I'm thinking financial, emerging markets and small oil.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by cosmok

So what vehicles do you think are going to be the best to load up short? I'm thinking financial, emerging markets and small oil.


fxp - you'll win as the USD goes up on CAD exchange, you'll also win when China takes the mother of all tank dives off a cliff.

[SilverRex]

after expecting the dollar to moving into a flat correction then back up higher, it did exactly that, beautifully breakout to the top side, certainly the dollar will find heavy resistant between 81-82+ my target remains around 82.60 for the short term.

I now expect the dollar to maintain above 80.70 and head higher

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar021910.jpg

expected gold to climb towards 1130-1150 and so far so good, but with the dollar suddenly busting out of the gates it may soon find its top here and push gold back down. gold may still have a bit higher to go but watch 1100 carefully, the next time this area caves in will be the start of gold's next leg down imo.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold021910.jpg

oil too is close to a top out, my current view is that oil should begin to free fall with not much higher it can go, any spike should be viewed as a great shorting oppotunity with initial target back down to 76-77 area, depending on how strong the dollar is, oil may remain above 76.5, and similar to gold at 1100. watch oil at 76-76.50 which will be critical for oil to remain some what bullish or neutral, but as soon as 76 is taking out, it should drop like a stong back towards 70

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil021910.jpg

[SilverRex]

just to touch on the DOW briefly, it appears dow has retraced to the 61% fibo and given the dollar is ready for another up move, this area should hold and the next leg down should begin.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow021910.jpg

[SilverRex]

im expecting oil to fall pretty soon here
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil021910b.jpg

[davidI]

Do any of you guys play the US$ with HDU or HDD?

[tryingtobebest1]

This forum is dying, SR is there any other good forum you may recommed probably?

Prediction for the next week???

[davidI]

I'm in on HOD so let's hope you're right SR. I missed the last opportunity to dump and the price is right back to where I started a month ago!

[SilverRex]

well lets see what this week will bring. Lets look at the dollar first, after expecting the dollar to breakout to the top side, didnt expected it to fall thru 80.75 that easily, but that hasnt change the bullish tone. unless the dollar suddenly collasp and falls thru 78.75, the bullish trend continues and so I expect the dollar to pull back no later to 80 before launching higher. there are plenty of sub division as the dollar is ready to make a strong move towards 82+

my recommendation is look to buy on dips

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar022210.jpg

and with the limited down side to the dollar, both oil and gold should be abou ready to turn over.

oil's short term ascending triangle suggest the current move to soon top out and ready to collasp. My view is similar to the dollar, get ready to short it any where above 80+

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil022210.jpg

and for gold, at a higher time frame, notice how ever since it broken below the daily trend line, it retested it once and we are very close to retesting it one more time, my expecation is unless gold can sustain above 1160, I continue to believe the next major move is down and any where between now and 1150 would be a good place to go south. contrary to what many believe, I think gold will be headed lower, let it prove me wrong and until other wise I'll stick to this projection.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold022210.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok just to silence the silver crowd, a quick minute looking at silver. I mean again, silver obviously moves along side gold.

looking at silver I wanted to point out what the trend is doing, the trend is clearly down. notice the sell offs are impulsive, the recently congestion and over lapping only suggest its corrective and eventually will fall. With price currently testing the 38% fibo retracement of the over all down move. my epxectation is, its quite ready to fall, even if it pops further I see it no higher than 17-17.25

a good confirmation is when price takes out 15.75 abouts and stays below this then you know the next major leg down has most certainly started.for targets, if I read this correctly the last wave down from 19 to 16 may have been a sub i of iii and so I will expect if we are to go down from 16.50, this wave should not be less than the sub wave i which gave us 3 pts. and so that would target 13.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver022210.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey SR do you think there will be a small pull back on hnd?
its at 5.87 right now

or should we wait for $6+

well the initial big resistance is at 6.17 but since NG has fallen a bit and oil hasnt. I have sold all my HND this morning and bought hod instead.

for hnd I still believe we will see it find a way to hit 7+ but I am going to try and see if I can catch oil's reversal here

[mr2mike]

I'm in on HOD this morning based on your chart, SR. Watching closely but I feel you're right in your analysis.

Still waiting on HNU, but with the large amount of rigs in use out there, I think you could be right with HND hitting $7 by this summer. I will probably but HND on weakness (if there ever is some soon :dunno: )

[cosmok]

Contract roll over day for oil so action is uncertain, hopefully see a nice down day tomorrow.

[mr2mike]

So far so good cos & SR. hnd and hod are tracking where you thought they'd go.

Setting up and exit strategy. I think there's resistance on the HOD stock at $9.50-ish from back in late Nov.

Besides that, I think we can hammer hod back into the 10's easily.

HND, I could see going sideways or slowing down, as much as this stock can slow down.:nut: Not willing to get into HNU though as I don't see it right now with rig counts, SR's analysis, etc, etc.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by mr2mike
I'm in on HOD this morning based on your chart, SR. Watching closely but I feel you're right in your analysis.

Still waiting on HNU, but with the large amount of rigs in use out there, I think you could be right with HND hitting $7 by this summer. I will probably but HND on weakness (if there ever is some soon :dunno: )

well im glad I made the right call on oil moving more than NG as oil is beginning to drop like a stone.

time to move stops to even and see how far it can tank.

still expecting the dollar to reach 82.6 at some point before a larger correction takes place

[mr2mike]

Man, NG keeps moving down, I'm amazed at it's strenght day in and day out these past weeks. When do we jump in for a quick HNU ride?

[SilverRex]

the problem with NG is it kinda lags behind, meaning both NG and oil often do not move in the same time frame but they move in the same direction.

its much easiler to trade oil when I know the general market is headed south, but NG is kinda at its own pace. But if you must look for a bounce, I'll wait until the dollar tops out in the short term

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

ok so far so good, looking at the dollar on the daily degree, notice our current movement continues to mirror aug-sep of 2008. If it plays out the same way, then look for dollar to make a move to retest the prior sub wave i near 83

then I would expect larger correction to take place which will give us a place to take profit and reload.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar022410.jpg

and if the dollar has a bit more to go on the upside in the short term, then look for oil to have peaked out. as my last few oil post I suggest oil would top out because of a terminal ascending wedge which eventual pave the way to a recent break down. but oil isnt bearish quite yet in the short term. since it has risen so much in the last two weeks, lots of support needs to be taken out to put the bears back in charge. first test is the trendline in red that I Feel may hold price in for the moment. then oil still needs to work under 75.5 to confirm we are back down for good. So if your already short oil above 80+, time to move your stops to even and wait for price to break below 78 to start.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil022410.jpg

and for gold, excuse me for a messy chart this morning, as you can see the current view is that gold may have completed an ABC correction for good. Key is price still under the thick red up trend line that it broke back in January, and as long as price continues to trade below this, my view is further weakness ahead. but in the short term gold did pinch thru a down trend line (in thin red) of its own and price just retested that this morning for the 2nd time in a few days. obviously, the bulls and bears are fighting this one out and we could have some more side ways grind with this. So if you have shorted gold near 1130, again place your stops above it and see if we have indeed catch a short term top because if 1130 is indeed the C wave of the correction, then we should be ready for a sub iii that will take us at least to 1000, but if gold shall take out 1130, it doenst mean the bears lost, we still have the thick red acting as resistant. If you recall I did recommend shorting gold when it was at 1160 area, and had you did, you have plenty of wiggle room to ride it to the down side. surely 1130 is a bit more risky that is why you need stops. And finally you notice why I placed two purple angled lines in there. This is just to confirm that the rise of the wave A matches C which leads me to believe our correction may be finished here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold022410.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok remember my last silver chart how I said the recent movement is corrective? and the 38% fibo that it touched near 16.50 may be a top for a collasp? well perfect resistance isnt it. just to figure out why the 38%, this is the entire retracement area from the entire down move from the 19 area, and not only that it is also the 78.6% fibo retracment of the recent down leg from 16.9 abouts to 14.6.

with two important numbers there, doesnt take a genius to figure out why the bears jumped all in here.

to add to the pain for bulls, silver has also taken out the up trend line and now testing the 15.75 support. but over night it had punched below this, in my books that is a break. typically if silver was in an uptrend, price would not violate the prior highs, but it did, only tells me a matter of time until silver turns even lower, perhaps setting up a H&S view in the back ground. for those that shorted silver at 16.5 abouts a stop above this looks good at this point. we we will wait for silver to finish its grind perhaps resetting some over sold condition then take out 15.75 for good and immediate retest the recent major low near 14.60. My down side target continues to be at 13.50 for the moment.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver022410.jpg

[SilverRex]

yes call me posting trigger happy this morning, but dont just look at my charts. learn some of the analysis yourself. One of the most easy to learn concept is how to look at a chart and determine what is impulsive and what is corrective. Impulsive is usually the trend and corrective is a correctional retracement against the impulsive move and in this case for the euro as I use for example you see strong sell offs then corrects and sells off again.

in an impulsive sell off, price tends to repect the prior lows, when you have price violating this rule then the slide may be ending. such how the euro on the 19th was still respecting the previous low at 3544 but once it over took this, it ended euro's slide with a bit of an impulsive rally. But you ask if its impulsive rally, why are we still expecting further weakness or call the latest a correctional, because all movements are fractal, they form part of a larger price pattern and wave count and as such on a higher level it can look corrective but impulsive on a lower time frame.

anyways this chart mirrors the US currently but notice the two circled area, are we in another mini corrective phase and ready to head lower? we will soon find out. the Art of analysis, isnt it wonderful and exciting.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro022410.jpg

[cosmok]

^As always, thanks for the posts SR

[cosmok]

USD's not doing so hot before Bernanke's speach

[cosmok]

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.0 million barrels
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels
Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels
Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels

Not very strong decline

[civic_rida]

go wamuq:thumbsup:

[davidI]

Markets dumping early. HOD up. Hit my stop yesterday though so I don't have a position. I actually have no positions at the moment and hope things go down, down, down!!!

[SilverRex]

just a quick update on oil, for those that shorted 80+, as long as your stop loss was above the previous high, then we are safe even with oil rallied a bit, however today we have a trend line break as well as the 78 support not holding. I believe we have completed the ABC correction for good and is headed for a sub wave iii down to at least 69, my target 65 in the coming weeks.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil022510.jpg

[SilverRex]

for those that remember the last dow chart I mention how we have potentially fulfilled the needed retracement by hitting the 61.8% fibo, and ready to turn lower. Price respected it to the tee and now the down leg sub wave iii may have started. Look how similar the DOW chart is comparing to oil. If my counts are correct then we will witness quite a power ful drop from here on for the next few weeks.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow022510.jpg

[civic_rida]

anyone still holding wamuq?

[SilverRex]

I sold it last week and bought the wampq instead

[cosmok]

Originally posted by civic_rida
anyone still holding wamuq?
I've got a small position still, not enough to really care about though. Great calls on the USD and Oil SR, picked up some ERY on Monday to make a play on both :thumbsup: