Official Short-term Investments Thread

[e36bmw///]

nm

[RedDawn]

Hey SR, is HOD still a good buy at this price or should I wait for a pullback?

[SilverRex]

ok while some technicals were looking bearish yesterday, we havent really got the sell off we expected... or maybe yet.

looking at oil currently, after taking out the up trend line and even diving under the 78 support I would expect oil to eventually fall quite significantly, but right now price is retesting the broken trend line.

my view is that as long as oil does not suddenly punch above 80 again, I will expect it will exhust it self and will be ready to head lower initially to 76 area. I think for the more conservative traders, price may need to crack 75.5 before drawing more technical sellers to the party. even if oil does punch thru 80 does it reverse the over all trend? To me, I dont think so, but it will warrant a wait and see approch.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil022610.jpg

I have said lately that due to the bulls and bears harmonizing at currently levels, we may see some side way grinding. And so gold hasnt make any significance moves on either side of the fence. with a short term breakout off a descending wedge price has a bit upside momentum. However similar to oil's 80 top. I view as long as 1130 gold holds, we should either side a range trading occuring here or a sell off towards 1070 and it will continue to repect the thicker red down trend line that it recently over came. The way gold is moving does feel a bit strange. the feeling of, it may want to hit higher before falling lower. but we will see, and if 1130 does not hold the bulls down then we will wait for the next ceiling which could bring us back to between 1150-1160 area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold022610.jpg

and for the dollar, as you can see the over all trend is up, still confined within an up channel, the resistance that it cannot over came last week with 80.5 being a top is now the underside support. but with some negative divergence showing up on a few charts, it only makes me wonder if the dollar is beginning to find it difficult to grind higher. its does not mean it will drop hard right at this moment since we have plenty of support. a good one at 80 then 79.50, while the last two weeks has been looking more like a corrective structure ready to hit a wall and turn back down. I'll only look at the dollar as a medium term bearish view if 79.50 is taking out. other wise I still expect the dollar to be bought at dips targeting the 82+ as the short term target to reach before falling hard. perhaps the recently hessitation in the dollar's strong advance since December may be an early signal of the coming larger correction. Similar to the one back in sept 2008 which was a heathy retracement.

I will continue to buy the dips on the dollar unless 79.50 falls flat on its face.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar022610.jpg

[mr2mike]

Holding HOD. No significant gain but will wait. If it starts to drop below $8.70, I will exit.

[Afrodeziak]

Hey guys/gals

Any thoughts on the stock WRG? I'll be honest, I know sweet f-all about stocks. A friend was mentioning this stock to me, as this company just acquired a couple of others and is led by a CEO who has taken other company's upward. Said friend works for one of those acquired companies, so has some inside knowledge of what his company is up to.

I've been reading/learning a bit here and there. Have nothing invested in them. With that said, I know that "from a friend, from a friend, etc" is usually a pretty bad reason to take a hunch, therefore, given this, I'd like to see how my thoughts on the situation compare to others who "analyze" charts, read reports, etc. My personal portfolio is pretty low-risk, therefore even if this looks anywhere near good, I still may likely not touch it.

It was about around .62 about a week ago and pretty much shrank 50% right before their announcements, and seems to be trending upward with the new acquisition news.

Cheers,
B

[SilverRex]

ok so we got the bounce off near 80 on the index and it attampt to make another breakout, unfortuntely it is still having trouble doing so, which for this which leads me to believe the dollar may have already produced its sub wave iii of I and if that is the case, we may be looking at a little bigger correction for the dollar. So unless dollar with this spike can finally over take 81.3 then 82.6 will still be the inital target, but if it fails again then down she goes.

looking at the chart I now expect the dollar to find its way back towards 78.5 before the next up leg begins. the initial landing near the bottom of the up trend channel will no doubt spur some buying so day trading opportunity arises.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar030110.jpg


with that said a weaker dollar in the next few days may not bold well for oil and gold shorts. however looking at oil, it does not look nearly as exhusted as the dollar is on the short term, so I will continue to stick with my bearish call on oil for now since we are so close to the previous top near 84. oil did brielfy broke down from its trend line eariler last week however it has manage to re-close above this, to go short I say wait for oil to drop below this again just to be safe. other wise I am now expecting oil to make another mini push towards 82 area for a top out process.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil030110.jpg

while gold is moving very similar to oil these days, two scenario is on my books. 1130 gold MUST hold for a immediate collasp, other wise if this area is broken, it would force a higher correctional recount that can easily push gold back above 1160-1200 area so please keep this in mind. over all I am still bearish on gold but a swing trade long if 1130 is broken to the upside may be an opportunity in itself.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold030110.jpg

[cosmok]

The Canadian dollar is crushing the US this morning, people must be impressed with all that gold at the Olympics :nut:

[SilverRex]

just to touch up on DOW, since im expecting the dollar to correct a bit, this may force DOW to rally further and with the trendline breaking off above 10350 this morning, the sell off on the 61% fibo was short lived. and we may experience another thurst to the upside for DOW, but with it retracing this much in the last few days is starting to not look like what a down trending market should be, so I will caution and wait this one out to see where DOW tops out before jumping in. it is better to see a clear trend then to keep picking a top that never comes. how ever if you want to take a chance, then wait for a pop towards 10500 and short it with a stop above the previous high set around 10700, surely if this area is taking out then we are looking at something else entirely that will force a recount,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow030110.jpg

[cosmok]

Did you clear your HOD position SR or just waiting to add to it?

[SilverRex]

^
I dont have a lot I may add to it if it pops to 82ish with a stop above 84 thats my strategy anyways

[cosmok]

Oil should find some support around 78.3, nice drop so far

[mr2mike]

Yup, I look away for a few and there's a nice bump in hod. keep going this time!!

[tryingtobebest1]

HNU is at the new 52weeks low, how hight will the HND go???
When should i exit? Any prediction SR?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[tryingtobebest1]

Yes i follow every his reply, but maybe something has changed since than!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
HNU is at the new 52weeks low, how hight will the HND go???
When should i exit? Any prediction SR?

if your in the green alot since when hnd was around the 4s, then best way to do this is to sell half and let the rest ride to 7+ with stops break even. thats how I always do it

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex


if your in the green alot since when hnd was around the 4s, then best way to do this is to sell half and let the rest ride to 7+ with stops break even. thats how I always do it

What are your thoughts on the big drop in the USD/CAD?

[cosmok]

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.1 million barrels
Motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels
Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels
Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels
Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels

[SilverRex]

ok lets see what today brings. my last dollar chart has it that i feel the dollar has exhusted its upside short term and looking for a bit of a larger correction and so my expecation that it will dip below 80 has began. price has certainly fulfilled that text bookly speaking. now that price is under 80 my view is there is a larger up trend line that may potentially hold the dollar in for another rally. so we have two major support to consider. one near 79.50 and one at 78.50

my thought is the dollar should find support on one of these levels then begin another leg up how long it will stay there remains to be seen but only key thing you must remember if you follow EW principle is that the dollar must not break into the territory of the previor wave I which is at 78.50, if this area is taken out, then we have something else on our hands, but until it does my longer term view is we continue to favor the bullish stanze on the dollar and look to buy on dips.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar030410.jpg

and oil, again my expecation from my last oil post suggested oil is in one more thurst to the upside, look how beautiful it consolidated to a triangle breakout, the move should be able to bring oil back towards 82 if not above it, yes we are close to the previous top around 84 and if you are looking at the april contract movement, the top is more likely at 85. so this will give us one final shorting opportunity with stops above it. hopefully this is as far as oil goes. similar to the dollar taking out 78.50 if that happens, oil may soon find newer highs, but until it does, look for a shorting opportunity near 82+

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil030410.jpg

and finally I suggested previously that gold either will collasp immediately because it had created a short term top at 1130, but if that area was taking out then the count is for a much higher gold price. So it has broken 1130 and now I expect based on the price projection of the 1040s low to the 1130 high, we are talking slightly above 1160 area which should give us the perfect ABC correction we needed before a new major down leg begins. Now I know depending on what you follow, breaking the red down trend line shown here has everyone bullish on gold, my technical count and bearish view here is simply sticking to the EW definition which points to a collasp, and so if things shall change, then I will recount the entire structure, but for now the current movement is short term bullish, long term bearish.

remember how when gold first touched 1030 then consolidated then broke out in june 2008, however we all saw what happen then. No one knows for sure how gold will fall or explode. That is why I recommend buying physical on dips and holding onto it for a ultimate joyride because gold is the only market where the bull is still in charge, but technical if things pan out the way it should then we should see one last significant dive under 1000, I do not recommend shorting gold because of its volatility, but I do suggest keeping some ammo ready if the current EW count proves correctly.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold030410.jpg

tomorrow will be a big day with the unemployment and payroll. a catalyst that may just trigger the current trend reversal to the down side. then again it could backfire on us, so stay alert.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok


What are your thoughts on the big drop in the USD/CAD?

yeah I dont post usd/cad chart but I have been watching it, ever since it broke under 1.0500, technically it was headed towards 1.2750 abouts and we are here. if my count is correct, this is a huge ABC correction we should be bottoming here quite soon

[SilverRex]

ok quick update on the dollar, while my current view has it that I believe the dollar is in a bit of a correction, however one thing I notice on the daily chart that may warrant some attention.

looking at the chart below, we may have a sub wave iv triangle consolidation pattern unfolding here. the longer price keeps hovering above 80, the higher the chance of this scenario unfolding with breakout to the upside.

patterns dont lie, look how similar the triangle consolidation occured during the last wave iii/iv movement? it eventually paved the way for another down leg which consist of sub divisions but none the less lethal to the market place.

either way I believe the dollar still will climb over the longer hual with in the next few months but with such a pattern, it means the down side may be limited. and this will line up well for gold and oil to top out and begin to reverse.

another key is the 10/20EMA, for the euro, it has been bearish on the daily chart, the weekly, and ultimate the monthly chart is at a critical junture, it is about to cross over this week. The payroll data tomorrow will be very important. unless the euro suddenly jumps and climbs 3% to close up the week, technically its not looking good.

and same for the DOW, my last post suggested to watch the DOW as it pushes up one last time towards 10500, and as you can tell lately, alot of shorting has begin to take place. watch out below.

also NG is looking good so far for my mid 7 target. go hnd go

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollaralert.jpg

[SilverRex]

just to put the same thought back on to the lower level chart, if that is so, the dollar should have at least one more retest towards 80 before taking off.

let see how this pan outs.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar030410b.jpg

[mr2mike]

http://www.mediafire.com/?wkcbmqaoj45

Posted a Nexen Marketing PDF for people's knowledge who aren't in the industry.

[cosmok]

Looks like the unemployment numbers weren't as bad as people thought? Not looking good for shorts

[SilverRex]

wamuq back to 40 cents, congrad to those who held on

[cosmok]

Market doesn't want to roll over

[SilverRex]

a quick update on DOW, my last DOW chart suggested we should have one more thrust upwards towards 10500

we are now here, and I expect DOW should turn over shortly as the 10500 area is not only in this asecending wedge but it is also the previous broken neckline that was broken a month ago.

another important number is this area is so happens to be the 78.6% fibo of the entire drop from 10700 to 9800 so this will be a good place to go short with stops above 10700

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow030510.jpg

[SilverRex]

like DOW, oil is about to top out as well. I believe anything 82+ is a fantastic short, the next time oil takes out 80 should sell off quite dramatically

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil030510.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[mr2mike]

Looking at taking more of a position in HOD.

[SilverRex]

gold continues to look good in the short term to hit the projected 1160 area, as long as 1125 continues to hold, this move should stand, but as soon as 1125 is taken out to the down side, the larger correction may be finished

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold030510.jpg

[SilverRex]

as you can see from the last gold post, it continues to consolidate within a triangle pattern that should result in a upside breakout. And I believe once we get this breakout we should top out some where close if not slightly above 1160 then my expecation is the next major down leg to begin. A clue is when gold takes out the red upt trending line shown in the chart.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold030810.jpg

oil too should top out quickly this week, the ascending angle pattern should be terminal and there appears to be a smaller ascending wedge within a larger one both pointing price to terminate quite soon. I expect oil to begin reversing this week, watch 81 oil, once this area gives away the next major move should be down.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil030810.jpg


and for the dollar, playing out nicely to the wave iv consolidation triangle I suspected last week. a bullish dollar would mean once this consolidation ends or correction ends which ever you want to call it, a break out should occur to the upsidebut if 80 fails to hold and we see an impulsive sell off, then that would only mean we have a larger wave iv correction on our hand that should point to no lower than 78.50 before the dollar takes flight again. I continue to favor 78.50 as our ultimate support that if it breaks below it, then I will have to recount the dollar's bullish picture, until then look to buy on dips

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar030810.jpg

[SilverRex]

over seas WAMUQ is breaking new grounds. we may see near 50 cent WAMUQ today, I congrad those who are still holding this

for the silver crowd, as you can see price is near a 61% fibo retracement, this level could very well turn silver around, it is also near the previous broken neckline which is significant. Worse case has it we have one last area of resistance near 18.25, unless silver can take this area out, then this may take our the bearish view I have, but until then my expecation is silver has gone as high as it needs to and next big leg should be down not up

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver030810.jpg

[s_havinga]

HND over $7! how high can it go?

[davidI]

Loaded up on HOD at 8.28. Let's see what happens...

[djfob]

Originally posted by davidI
Loaded up on HOD at 8.28. Let's see what happens...

I picked up a bit too early at 8.70:banghead:

[broken_legs]

Anybody see the double top on the TSX?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[tryingtobebest1]

Everyone seems to load up in HOD since its at the new 52weeks lowest, why than HOU is not at the 52 weeks hight than?

SR do you have a position in HOD and what is your prediction?

[davidI]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
Everyone seems to load up in HOD since its at the new 52weeks lowest, why than HOU is not at the 52 weeks hight than?

SR do you have a position in HOD and what is your prediction?

Contango. Rollovers hurt HOU since the future pricing puts you into higher priced contracts once they rollover. I tend to play the shorts more

The compounding of daily returns can also kill you. The more volatility, the more degradation.

Fees can also affect the price.

In the long, long term, all leveraged ETFs will end up at zero unless the stock is split.

[DRKM]

Shorting oil and financials tomorrow.

[SilverRex]

wow wamuq is going to hit over 66 cents this morning

[SilverRex]

just to follow up on my last comment, DOW has gone up as high as it needs to and for any hope of a major sell off it needs to immediately turn around now. Other wise it will technical change the out look and higher highs will be in store. For the moment since we are so close to the previous high set around 10700 I will use that as make or break, still expecting for a fall out beginning now.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow030910.jpg

oil may gave us a clue what is about to take place, my expecation of hitting the 82s has been fulfilled. and now price has taken out 81 which is also a trend line for the entire run since hitting 69 not too long ago. I now expect weakness for oil for the next few weeks, first area to test is 78, taking out 78 is another confirmation our top is in place.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil030910.jpg

the little triangle breakout to the upside did not pan out as expected. Gold has since sitting near 1115, this must hold if gold has any hope to reach 1160 which was my original target for the short term. IF we take out 1115, then perhaps the down side is occuring eariler than expected watch out for the neckline, if it breaks it will turn in to resistance to push gold further down.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold030910.jpg

[Proyecto2000]

any one following KWG? I was thinking of buying a few shares at $0.07

[e36bmw///]

nm

[mr2mike]

So I see HOD took a good dive this morning with lots of volume. Is this people's stop losses kicking in at a certain point? Or just mass uncertainty?
Then I see it's recovered.... suckaz! j/k
Hold in there guys. I don't think we can do too badly if you're getting into it sub $8.45

[SilverRex]

NG as in hnd.to may be close to a short term bottom out process if your still shorting be short to take some profit or move your stops

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

so gold continues to trade lower and the uptrending line just isnt holding it in. I'll be proven wrong if gold can suddenly rise above 1130, other wise I expect the short on rallies to begin as we head back towards 1070

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold031110.jpg

looking at the dollar, the triangle wave iv correction continues to be in play and price continues to repsect this tight trading range. while my expecation is to the upside breakout, dollar at 80 must hold, or risk a larger correction that could sell back down towards or near 78.50 as long as 80 holds my view continues to favor the upside

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar031110.jpg

Dow is right at the edge of a make or break, it has risen enough and must immediate turn around or also risk further upside. Since we are dam close to the last top near 10700 I would use stop above this, if price punches thru either go long short term or exit all position and wait for a new recount. stoch is well over bought, market is setup nice to fall from here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow031110.jpg

Oil is mirroring dow as it is also near its previous top set around 84 dollars, lower time frame suggest it is getting extremely congested at these levels, so something has got to give one major move or another, I will apply the same strategy here as with the DOW, set your stops above 84 the next time we break the sharp ascending trend line it should begin the next major move to the down side. it would be nice if oil can turn around immediate and head back to 72, since it will be very exciting if oil can take out the 72 neckline and force a H&S pattarn. this would open the door for oil to sell down to as low as 59, there fore if you havent been trading oil, the risk/reward is definately here with oil above 80+

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil031110.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[s_havinga]

SR, would you recommend dumping my old HND (at a loss) and buying HOD? I feel like NG can only drop a little more and Oil has a lot further to go...

[SilverRex]

I think you have the right idea

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
any one following KWG? I was thinking of buying a few shares at $0.07

wish i would have followed thru on this one currently at $0.12 on its way to $0.14+

[s_havinga]

Sold my position in HND, planning on throwing it into HOD and maybe some PES

[civic_rida]

wow oil going down

[SilverRex]

wow big news on WMI

P shares dropped to 8 bucks, now back at 50, 500% gain crazy

[SilverRex]

wow from 8 bucks to 70 just like that go wampq go we have until the 26th for th EC to settle an offer

[in*10*se]

^ sorry silverrex.

wanna give me the background on wampq and wamuq?

thx man.

-R.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[tryingtobebest1]

Did anyone bought any at 8??? Crazy profit you had balls to do that!)))

[Unknown303]

What trading software/company do you guys use/go through?

[cjay^]

Hey guys, I have $10000 just lying around that I want to invest in something low-moderate risk for a short period of time (1-3 years) and I was wondering what you guys would suggest.

Thanks.

[Rat Fink]

.

[SilverRex]

ok wanted to mention oil quickly here first. looking at the daily chart, if we are expecting oil to fall in the near term, oil must fall immediately or risk forcing a recount which could suggest the last 5 wave up 82 (brown alt count) as a wave (A) top, a wave (B) bottom at 69 and potentially which is bad news for oil bears we may see oil make another 5 wave up towards 120

but the good news is, oil hasnt broken above the previous top just yet, so we will monitor this closely going forward. Hopefully the bearish scenario still stands as long as the previous top near 84 isnt broken to the upside in an impulsive fashion, it would drop nicely and now if so to form what looks like a H&S top that would target the 58 area

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil031510.jpg

for gold, still expecting the bearish scenario now that price is broken down a short term up trendline last week. looking for gold to retest at least 1080 which will be the last stand for bulls. while my over all count suggest further down side ahead and 1080 shouldnt hold for too long it doesnt matter it will be the key support that both bulls and bears will be watching closely. you can say if 1080 holds, bulls will need to make a strong run to crack 1160 to turn the bearish outlook around and you will know, but if 1080 falls thru the cracks, the expecation of a much lower gold price since topping above 1200 will stand and a wave III drop for gold will have most likely started.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold031510.jpg

and for the dollar, the initial bullish case where I expected 80 to hold and force another leg up didnt pan out, a break of the red trend support is now looking alot like the dollar is on to a bit of a larger correction. no worries my epxecation is for the dollar to find a footing between 78.5-79.5 as that is the fibo retracement area range that would give dollar a healthy pull back. then I expect the next leg upwards to begin. of course the key area will continue to be at 78.50 which is critical if the dollar is to advance to new heights, a break below 78.50 would not go well for the dollar as it may suggest the pop in the dollar may be over and could fuel both oil and gold while my view is bullish on the dollar, I wont dismiss this bearish case either.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar031510.jpg

[s_havinga]

What is the resistance oil has to drop below to confirm it is bearish? Looks like its falling quite nicely this morning hopefully it keeps heading in that direction!

[e36bmw///]

nm

[forced_eg]

anybody following cve:rdi - rockwell diamonds, huge volume friday on the ASK $.

today I suspect some high roller scooped up over 2M shares, because the volume shot up about half an hour ago

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Hey SR any predictions for nat gas?

I know you said that HND should hit mid 7s which it did, so will there be a pull back now

so maybe jump into hnu?
or still wait since summer is coming

well its pretty darn close to hitting my target on NG in the mid 7s, but I do expect it to bounce a little from here (strong NG meaning)

and its going to be edgy since oil is not out of the woods yet, if oil suddenly turns around and breaks loose, that will bring NG back up

[yoda124]

WTN Western Canadian Coal the best trading stock on the TSX (IMHO)just hit 52 week high today :clap:

[cosmok]

It sure is tough being a bear in one of the biggest bull markets :banghead:

[Meback]

fukin werd. ^

[max_boost]

Thoughts on the TSX?

Sold out of my positions and sitting on the sidelines. Index hit 12,000 (my sell limit) and currently waiting for a pullback.

[tryingtobebest1]

news on the WAMPQ, whats going on? should we start thinking about a position?

[djfob]

Originally posted by max_boost
Thoughts on the TSX?

Sold out of my positions and sitting on the sidelines. Index hit 12,000 (my sell limit) and currently waiting for a pullback.

I did the same exact thing, only thing I am still holding is HOD. Was expecting it to go up a bit more I sold. Who would have thought oil would have gone up so much today. So I'm kinda stuck holding it for now.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[pepschnops]

Originally posted by yoda124
WTN Western Canadian Coal the best trading stock on the TSX (IMHO)just hit 52 week high today :clap:

Very good stock, also look at GCE (Grande Cache Coal)

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey guys is there a reason why natural gas and oil seem to move opposite of each other?

one is up, the other is down. occasionally they both will be ether up or down

I think a better question, which is more likely?
NG to come up to meet oil or Oil to drop to meet NG?
Is the Dollar really what's effecting the Oil price right now, SR?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by mr2mike


I think a better question, which is more likely?
NG to come up to meet oil or Oil to drop to meet NG?
Is the Dollar really what's effecting the Oil price right now, SR?

still waiting for the dollar to correct a bit more

and loonie should be on par and slightly more than the USD then I will be thinking long USD

oil yes right up there, will have to sit on the side line if oil breaks above 85, until then , still expect it to drop, if 85 doesnt hold we may be looking at a new target range as high as 120

[SilverRex]

ok i wanted to point out something, while I still expect the dollar to correct just a bit more before rising again

looking at the china market you can clearly see what looks like a a 3 waves down so far and what is happening now above 3000 is corrective or looks very correctively which suggest the next time we take out the neckline (in red) it will dip back to 2600 or under.

this drop will most likely lead all other market including the US to fall and it couldnt come at a better time since the dollar should begin to rise

what ever is happening with the DOW watch out it could be a divergence then fall

oil im still holding onto my bearish call unless it can sustain above 84 dollars (its actually 85 if you use the april contract price in full)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ssec0317.jpg

[s_havinga]

Holy shit :eek: anyone still holding HND? I apparently got out of it too early!

[SilverRex]

im surprised with hnd's run I thought the 4s to 7s was impressive already lol

[tryingtobebest1]

so it did hit 8 like you were saying will it hit 9s?? Anything new with it??? I cannot belive that HNU doing 52 weeks low everyday!!! SR i think we should switch! LMK

[SilverRex]

as long as oil doesnt crank about 85, I think its time to short oil instead

for the moment, im expecting hod to get back above 10 dollars

[SilverRex]

well the expecation that the dollar is after the 38% to 61% retracement may potentially be finished. dollar has every right to make a move higher now. though we still have a neckline holding us back, one more surge then we can put away the low at 79.50

I was hoping it would retrace towards 78.50, but I cant argue if the dollar decides to go higher sooner.

This week could be important as the dollar signals higher

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar031810.jpg

[SilverRex]

dollar contiunes to move like it is breaking out

watch out the DOW may be finally ready to fall

gold have one more hurdle, a neckline if broken, will bring her down towards 1070 area

oil too will collasp from here if the dollar indeed continues north of the boarder

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold031910.jpg

[SilverRex]

depending on how over bought it is right now, the dollar may have hit a short term top if that is so, then I expect a bit of a cosolidation then bust out next week

of course if the dollar doesnt stop and breaks out the last trend line holding this thing down, I still expect stoch to reset and a retest of the same area. Might want to sit back and relax wait for a bit more confirmation and jump in on the next pull back

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar031910.jpg

[Neil4Speed]

Any of you guys know what the drop in ECA.TO might be attributed to? It seems to be getting hit overly hard with the retreat in Nat Gas recently. Its down about 8% to the OG index.

[max_boost]

Falling Oil & Dollar will put pressure on the markets to follow suit? You said the Dow may fall, assume so with the TSX as well?

Where do you see the Dow and TSX going?

I'm sitting waiting to jump on HSU and HXU.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Falling Oil & Dollar will put pressure on the markets to follow suit? You said the Dow may fall, assume so with the TSX as well?

Where do you see the Dow and TSX going?

I'm sitting waiting to jump on HSU and HXU.

some one from the financials tells me we are expecting a pull back in the market, as far as how much I can only gauge it as it falls and if it does fall.

the one thing that might or might not happen is gold, when the market does dive, the cyclist is calling gold to explode peaking in april. I dont know if this is where gold becomes parabolic or not. technically I am still waiting for it to fall, but I guess if gold suddenly takes out the high into 1160-1200 area, then its time to jump in for a fun ride

[Zenshi]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[mr2mike]

I've tried that move before... go from HND and run into HNU right away hoping to catch the flip on the big run on the opposite stock.

IMO, it's not a smart thing. Been burned that way. It doesn't work that way and it's not just a correlation of the opposite. I would expect HNU might rise a little but I think it would be safer on the side lines and wait for the right point to hit the HNU.

If you're a day trader, I think it can be done but I don't have the software nor the time to watch it that closely. Good on you, if you can. Don't want to discourage, just sharing what I've learned.

[e36bmw///]

nb

[SilverRex]

as mention last week, it appears the dollar has finally completed the wave iv correction and is on the early stages of another advance. I now expect buying on dips is the right thing to do, if we use the wave i as a projected target, the dollar should find its way towards 83+ with 82.6 being a initial overhead resistant area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar032210.jpg

with a stronger dollar, one can only assume a weaker gold as well, technically it also points to lower gold prices this week, with gold about to break down from the H&S neckline near 1100, it too will target a sell off towards 1060-1070 area which will be the ultimate test for gold bulls if there is any hope of a higher gold price on the horizon. if gold then takes out the 1040s, all bets are off

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold032210.jpg


oil too completed its 5 wave top and is now beginning what appears a correctional phase, however so long 85.05 is taking out to the upside, I continue to expect oil to find its way lower. it may require oil to break below about 75 to ensure a bigger selloff for oil in the near future. But as I suggest last week as well, if oil suddenly turns around and takes out 85.05, then this may open oil towards higher prices. I recommend if you've already shorted oil in 82+ area start setting your tops either above 85.05 or at break even to reduce your risk.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil032210.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[s_havinga]

So I have never set a stop limit before and I just want to make sure I do it right. I am with waterhouse.

If I go to the Ordering Stocks page, Set the Action to "Sell on Stop" and then set my stop limit, it will only sell if the stock drops to that value right?

edit: Never mind, turns out google can be pretty helpful...

[Meback]

whats going on with Oil. HOD went from a 4% win down to nothing.

[s_havinga]

Dunno but I took SR's advice and got out at break even. I think I am gonig to sit on the sidelines with HOD / HOU until it is more clear which way it is going to move.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Meback
whats going on with Oil. HOD went from a 4% win down to nothing.
Has more to do with the US dollar as the health-care bill passed and the dollar reacted negatively; this pushed equities and the market back up. As long as we stay within ranges the upward momentum for the USD stays intact.

[PeterGTiR]

Do you guys still invest in stocks or is it all Horizons Betapro ETFs now?

I'm holding STP.V, Southern Pacific Resources. I bought it late last week at 0.97 based on my basic technical analysis...

:dunno: