Official Short-term Investments Thread

[93VR6]

Originally posted by bwling


Congrats! Great news this morning...it should take them to a new 52 week high!

I first got in around the 0.70s and have been adding to my position at each downdip during the way up.

Love IAE so much I only got in at 1.30 but still it's a real winner.

I have heard target prices as high as 4.60 for them.

[SilverRex]

so last friday we had a bit of a sharp movement in the market, looking at the dollar, while the dollar has regain some footing, I dont think it has confirmed we are on our way up for higher highs. Since the time relationship for this wave II correction is quite shallow. So the only way I now expect the dollar to break out into a wave III advance is if it can take out 81.50 then 82.2 immediately. other wise, bearish implications towards 79.50 and under still remains. Since I still expect the market to be nearly a top, well I dont think the market has quite peaked out just yet.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar041910.jpg

gold on the other hand is getting very interesting, the previous reverse H&S neckline that was broken to the upside is having difficulty hold price up, and with the slightly breach of support this morning, the bearish tone is slowly mounting. Yes this is a crossroad if gold is to still make it towards a final higher near 1194. But the 1166 top has certainly fulfilled its min target as well. Therefore gold bulls take caution.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold041910.jpg

for the oil folks, I was surprised at how much oil has fallen, expecially we made new highs and count suggest further up possible. But it has not really turn bearish in my books yet. no, the recent fall could still be just a larger fibo retracement for the 69 to 87 dollar rise. Whch means I am going to expect oil to find a bottom between 76-80 before resuming its rise.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil041910.jpg

and the DOW, which made quite the selloff last friday as well. However bear trend isnt comfirmed unless 10700-800 is broken to the down side, until then, current count suggest we have in a bit of a sub wave iv correction with one more rise to complete the 5 waves leg up since bottoming out at 6500

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow041910.jpg

[DJ_NAV]

Im about to buy AEZ.TO, looks like a hot stock.... just going to wait a day or two till my money transfers. Target price for me is around $4 in 3 months.

[911fever]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
Im about to buy AEZ.TO, looks like a hot stock.... just going to wait a day or two till my money transfers. Target price for me is around $4 in 3 months.

I bought some before close today /fingers crossed

[mr2mike]

Nexen Weekly Oil and Gas Bulletin - April 15, 2010

Download 041510.pdf from FileFactory.com (http://www.filefactory.com/file/b12hb1g/n/041510.pdf)

[PeterGTiR]

Picked up some BNK.TO at $8.63 after a little bit of a drop last week. I hope that the profit taking/price correction was limited to last week...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[davidI]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
why is no one posting anymore?

I'm just not trading much! To be honest, I'm scared of a correction. Half of me feels like I'm missing the boat as the market continues to rise, but the other half of me feels like there is more downside than upside at the moment. Sitting on a bunch of cash, waiting for a solid opportunity to get back in and ride the gravy train!

[SilverRex]

ok so from my last suggestion that the dollar could very well have finished its correction and ready to break out is about to make a real test today. with a critical tom demark trendline that is situated near 81.50 will be the make or break. If the neckline hold, then the obvious move would be another leg to the down side which could fuel the market to a higher top, imo a breakout here could set sail the beginning of the multi month decline we've been waiting for just about forever. While the dollar can do both, breakout then move down and give us a flat correction instead, but I'll stick to my 81.50 special number for now.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar042110.jpg

on the lower level for the gold chart, there seems to be a double top forming at 1145 with negative divergence, while we are briefly a rock stuck in two hard places, either move above or below its current channel could be the direction of gold's next major direction. Bull case require price to break above 1150, and bear case require price to break below 1115, for the short term it does look like gold is becoming increasing weak if the lower level chart is any early indication

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold042110.jpg

oil really hasnt moved higher up as I would like but it hasnt dropped to the point where I would make a call to sell either. with the new monthly contract pricing now in full effect, this chart is what I will have to use. for now I'll stick to my views that price is ready to pick right back up to the higher side and break away from this current trench of correction, failure to hold and remain above 81.75 once again will have me believe price is ready to test the 78-79 area and my bull case will still remain open until other wise. if oil suddenly becomes very weak, then we may have to sit on the side line and figure this one out.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil042110.jpg

[troyl]

Would you mind posting up a nat gas chart Silverex?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
why is no one posting anymore?


Kept going short on short-medium term outlooks of 1-3 weeks, no time to day trade this year. Kept getting burnt and nothing makes sense to me this year. Just waiting and watching for now - and buying physical gold ;)

[mr2mike]

Exact same reasons as the rest of the guys.
I'm wondering how this volcano will effect prices for oil and gas. I know it's probably already factored in a little but when airlines aren't travelling, reserves must increase a little. Is this why the price drop in oil? I'm not sold on SR's analysis of oil. With that knowledge, I could see it dropping off.

Personally, I'm waiting for another low or high to buy in and like others, ride the gravy train.

[Rat Fink]

.

[SilverRex]

from my last post on the USD index, we have finally approaching the critical neckline. We will soon find out if the dollar's latest run up is for real or just another corrective movement. if I had to bet, the move looks healthy for a breakout play (this could be the death signal that the equity market has topped)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar042210.jpg

[davidI]

Wow, TSX is dropping fast!

[997TT]

i've pretty much given up... lol

just send all my disposable income to my broker.

sure its not as fun but i would prefer to make money than to have fun. lol

now that i dont invest (lose) as much i find myself spending it on my car ... not such a bad thing as i'd rather have something than an addition to my lifetime capital loss balance.

[tryingtobebest1]

So how many of us is holding an HNU? I think we overbought it (if there is such a thing!)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
So how many of us is holding an HNU? I think we overbought it (if there is such a thing!)

i am I feel we are either at a bottom or at the early stages of one. so far this morning NG is very encouraging

[troyl]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
So how many of us is holding an HNU? I think we overbought it (if there is such a thing!)


I am holding, great day today!! Hope the strength can continue.

[tryingtobebest1]

The same time i post it went up 7%!))) May be i should post more?!))) LOL

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Originally posted by 997TT
i've pretty much given up... lol

just send all my disposable income to my broker.

sure its not as fun but i would prefer to make money than to have fun. lol

now that i dont invest (lose) as much i find myself spending it on my car ... not such a bad thing as i'd rather have something than an addition to my lifetime capital loss balance.

Index investing my friend. SP500/TSX60 (leverage 2X), HXU/HSU/ buy $100-$200K worth and 1% is $1000-$2000

Easy. Can always average down. If index doesn't go up, not many people are going to make money anyway.

Stick to the big stocks. Bought some AAPL 5 mins before closing a couple days ago at $245 and sitting at $263 right now.

Just got back from China so don't really know what to do. I just know May is coming. What happens in May? Sell in May and go away? Is that how it goes?

SilverRex, what's the general market looking like? TSX/SP500? What can we expect?

[djayz]

^ How's that working out for you?

I've been contemplating doing the index investing but most of my money is already tied up so its hard to make the 1k-2k that you're talking about.

Lately I've just been riding NG up and down, before that it was gold, and haven't touched oil in years.

Just picked up a pile of HND today, those who are holding HNU what is your outlook after today?

[mr2mike]

Was holding HOD for awhile. Finally ditched it this morning on a good run. As I can see, good decision. It's carried down ever since I sold it. No loss, no gain however.

Waiting to pounce on NG at some point. Just not today.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by djayz
^ How's that working out for you?

I've been contemplating doing the index investing but most of my money is already tied up so its hard to make the 1k-2k that you're talking about.

Lately I've just been riding NG up and down, before that it was gold, and haven't touched oil in years.

Just picked up a pile of HND today, those who are holding HNU what is your outlook after today?

Working out great. Just taking profits where ever I can. Risking a lot to make a little lol :rofl:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by max_boost


What happens in May? Sell in May and go away? Is that how it goes?



Last May was print hoards of money in may and cause the largest stock rally in history.

I'm not sure if the old adages still apply to this market...

[997TT]

Originally posted by max_boost


Index investing my friend. SP500/TSX60 (leverage 2X), HXU/HSU/ buy $100-$200K worth and 1% is $1000-$2000

Easy. Can always average down. If index doesn't go up, not many people are going to make money anyway.

Stick to the big stocks. Bought some AAPL 5 mins before closing a couple days ago at $245 and sitting at $263 right now.

Just got back from China so don't really know what to do. I just know May is coming. What happens in May? Sell in May and go away? Is that how it goes?

SilverRex, what's the general market looking like? TSX/SP500? What can we expect?

I actually have been buying into DYN052 every month just to keep money seperate from my broker. High MER but performance has been good. When i look at XIU and DYN052, the dynamic fund outperformed.

Am also looking into a hedgefund to again hedge spread my risk out. This hedgefund did 180% in 2009. On average has outperformed TSX significantly.

[SilverRex]

as my previous post suggested, the breakout I was expecting finally became a reality. now that we have broken the neckline shown below, we also re-tested the breakout point which is typical in most breakout patterns. If my analysis is correct the dollar is ready to make new highs soon. current critical support at 81.30 must hold or this could be a failed breakout and we may be looking at a flat correction pointing back towards 80 once again.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar042310.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost


SilverRex, what's the general market looking like? TSX/SP500? What can we expect?

I havent really look directly at the tsx, but for the dow/sp500 I am expecting either the market has topped out this week or will be looking for a final top between now and early May.

Yes I believe its a sell in MAy and go a way for a couple of months then reload at the end of summer.

performence of tsx may vary since a critical component may be in relation to the performence of gold and oil price. if Gold repeats what happen in early 2008, then gold is due to fall 25% paper price, but if it breaks out, then we are in a whole new arena where it will invalidate most of the bearish counts out there and force everyone to go bullish.

as you can see I am thinking it will depend if the dollar index is ready to make another advance higher high or continue to trade side ways.

hope this helps

[SilverRex]

here is my over view of the dollar index if 81.30 is broken to the downside instead of making new highs

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarabcde.jpg

[KappaSigma]

IAE setting new 52 week highs.

Im holding till 2011. If they meet their goals on produection (coming in late 2010/2011) the stock price will be much higher than it is right now.

[SilverRex]

Natgas is looking good, come on just a bit higher for a breakout from this 3 week channel

[SilverRex]

looking at UNG, a little bit higher and we will have a breakout, 10/20 EMA is about to cross over which is bullish hopefully my call that NG has hit bottom 3 weeks ago is ready to become a reality

short term target on breakout I am looking for ung to get back to the 8s and over time hit the 9s since a bit of a gap needs to be filled there.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung042310.jpg

[SilverRex]

it appears that the dollar's recent breakout may be a fake. with the index now right back at 81.30 a break below would set up further weakness. And with that, the market is a bit more higher to go, is it no wonder, both oil and gold are up today.

initially I would expect the dollar to head towards 80 once more. as to if that is the final dive, we will know when we get there.

looking at oil, my last post suggested the important of holding above 81.75, our current month contract basically rallied off 81.75 to the tee, how close can you get? well since it didnt break below that support, my bullish counts remain and looking at the chart, it will soon breakout of its own neckline and towards 90 oil. dont let the 81.75 support fool you, if you go back to the prior month contract, oil did dip below 81 and in such that sets us up a reverse head and shoulder that will easily target another 5 dollars higher once we take out about 85.4

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil042310.jpg

also for gold, remember I said the neckline at 1128 must hold? we managed to stay above this and it also looks like our final leg up towards 1194 is very much underway. If I stick to my bearish call that what is happen now mirrors early 2008, then I expect gold to fall hard once we get above 1166, but I could soon have to jump on the bull wagon if 1194 is taking out. So the moment of truth is at hand.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold042310.jpg

[max_boost]

Apple is up 10% in a matter of a few days. :eek:
Love it. :bigpimp:

[911fever]

Originally posted by max_boost
Apple is up 10% in a matter of a few days. :eek:
Love it. :bigpimp:

yeah I told my Dad to buy some stock, he was wary cause of how expensive it is, but he bought a decent amount last week :D

[SilverRex]

ok so as I have commented on the dollar last week, while we had a bit of a breakout, it does not look like the dollar is holding well enough to continue to new highs, so now my expecatation this week is another pull back in thed dollar which should spawn one final push for the general market upwards then our top may be in.

expect the dollar to make another 3 waves down towards 80,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar042610.jpg

with dollar correction not yet finish, gold too should gain a bit more momentum towards a price higher then 1166 and no higher then 1194. yes that means if 1194 is taking out, I may have to revise the count but for now that is the expecation before gold making another major down move.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold042610.jpg


same thing with oil, with 81.75 holding, view is price should finally break above 87, initial target of 90. However I do have an alt count which I will post shortly.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil042610.jpg

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/NG042610.jpg

[cosmok]

Now the big question is this pullback going to be sustained or is it just another speed bump on the unfathomable higher market road?

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by e36bmw///


how much is it if you dont mind?

Does it depend on how much, or is it fixed ?

3.5% on balance used.

[in*10*se]

if any of you have option trading and know what a straddle is... i'd take a couple hundred options and sit on DNDN

and for those bigger risk takers, theres typically a spike on CLDX ramping up to the first week of June. Get in now and leave before June and you can make a pretty penny. Aug call options are what i'm in, but i'll be out last week in may.

edit: oh and if you really want to gamble with something taking off.... APPY has had some spectacular runs.

happy gambling!

my 2 cents on my speculative biotech trading ;)

[SilverRex]

so when the dollar briefly broke below 81.30, what I thought was an early bearish indication of a further decline towards 80 did not meet my expecation. and in such, on the flip side that re-enforces the idea that indeed the breakout above 81.50 may have some legs after all.

Currently we are right at the edge for a larger breakout, price closing above 82 will only continue to favor the bullish momentum. unless the dollar sharply breaks below the newly set support at 81.25, I'd have to change my tone that the correction for the dollar may be over. and price is ready to take us higher.

I did post a triangle pattern consolidation pattern, but with the recent breakout off 81.50, it does not appear that is the case. So we have two scenarios if the dollar is to continue to march beyond 82,

one is the current count (in black) that we have completed a 5 wave structure. a good 3 wave correction and now we are about to march higher into another 5 wave. But, yes there is a but, it is quite possible that the 3-3-3 waves seen here (in purple) may have been a flat correctional wave iv. And we are only now completing a final wave V top. This is my alt count, and if this one plays out, that means the market isnt quite dead yet and we would have one more thurst to even higher highs in the DOW/S&P500. So please keep this in mind.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar042710.jpg

[SilverRex]

as for oil, as you can see oil was unable to breakout its own bearish neckline, while both the dollar and gold was able to. this tells me we may see further weakness in oil (as the dollar advances) once my infamous 81.75 fails to hold, it should turn it as a resistance and push oil lower. currently I view the last leg up from 69 to 87 as one larger wave. and now we will be looking for a bottom some where between 73-80. to recapture the oil bulls, oil must break above its own neckline currently at 85, until then, I see short term weaker oil prices, but longer term remains up in my book.

technical I am sure most will agree, it will take oil to break below 69 to confirm a dramatic trend versal, otherwise oil trend remains up way up. Remember my last oil post how even if the dollar is to advance, oil may continue to move side ways 10 dollars up and 10 dollars down, just like what it has been doing in the last few months. so for the time being, I do not see oil breaking below 69.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil042710.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
may is coming too, and usually oil starts to go up in may

that would match up well the fact oil is bullish on the higher time frame.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

bn

[djayz]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
anyone else not getting real time quotes from your trading platform?

Yah all my level 1 quotes are messed up, showing bids that are 30 cents higher than the asks and it hasnt moved all day!



Originally posted by e36bmw///
any predictions tomorrow for nat gas?

its ether going to go up or drop of a cliff

Would like to know as well, I still think we are to see a bear run on NG before it really takes off due to cold weather and then crazy hot summer weather/hurricanes.

Still have my position in HND so I hope it goes down tomorrow :D

[max_boost]

Met a guy last week who's made a small fortune off LVS in the past year. He would buy $350K worth of the thing and has been trading it religiously for the year. Takes some serious balls. Of course I questioned it, then he immediately went and showed me his statements.

It's got me thinking, after the next correction. Take out $400K and just track the index 2X hahaha :rofl:

[in*10*se]

^ cause everyone has 400k sitting around ;)

hey i was thinking you know what'd be cool, a contest to see who can make the best returns in a year. Like a trading game, see who by the end of the year has the best portfolio and best trading strategies for like 100k.
Stipulations would apply like, must have at least 20 trades a month? and diversified in at least 10 stocks at one time? i dunno anyone game? i'd like to see what others would buy, when, how etc...

[max_boost]

^^
Cool idea! Real money or fake money? hahaha

Similar to a hockey pool? Is there a website like that? Everyone signs up with their Beyond names, $100K balance and start trading stocks. Everyone's portfolio gets updated daily etc. so we see who's in the lead. Yes that would be fun actually.

[in*10*se]

yeah exactly like a hockey pool.
what'd the prize be?

fake money... course... cause we all know beyond is full of ballers ;)

[KappaSigma]

With IAE treating me well lately and looking good for a 1-2 year hold for production...does anyone have any or thinking of another North Sea player in XCITE ENERGY LTD???

[davidI]

I'm out on the pool idea. I barely have enough to trade my own portfolio right now let alone a real one.

Anyone have good value dividend stocks at the moment? Thinking about picking up a few longer-term holds. I haven't been swing trading as much lately...I still think a bit o a pull back is due at some point here soon.

[shynepho]

Anyone have any views on LMCO? Seems like a cheap penny stock thats on the verge of spiking hard.

[SilverRex]

as per our last post on the dollar, it made new highs, but keep in mind on the higher time frame, 82.63 was a previous wave i from our last major sell off last year, this is where I would expect price to find some resistance. but is interesting is that we did break above it brielfly, which tells me higher dollar is in play, the only question is when

looking at the dollar quickly, while I Cannot rule out a much large wave II correction that could force the market to run much higher, for the time being, I have to stick to my latest call that our correction has finished and we are on a new 5 wave move upwards. with wave (i) of III/C completed, as long as 81.50 holds, look for opporunitiy to go long.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar042910.jpg

[troyl]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
With IAE treating me well lately and looking good for a 1-2 year hold for production...does anyone have any or thinking of another North Sea player in XCITE ENERGY LTD???

I have been looking into XEL just a little bit overbought here IMO. There is some info on tradingchief . com if you are interested.

[troyl]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
any predictions tomorrow for nat gas?

its ether going to go up or drop of a cliff

I am not sure i understand your logic behind this statement "drop off a cliff". Could you give me insight to your thoughts behind it? Are you prediciting a huge build in inventories? Feel gas is over valued? What will you consider a "drop off a cliff" in respect to price a 30 cent drop + ?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

from my last post on NatGas, it appears the abcde wave iv correction is proving to be the play, I hope all those who got in with natgas hoping it was the bottom last week DID move your stop to break even. With an impulsive sell off this morning I expect Natura Gas to sell off to a lower low, for UNG some where close to low 6s, then it will be time to load NG for a longer term prospect.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/UNG042910.jpg

[troyl]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
it just does it every thursday at 8.30 on the dot

I praise you! Time to average down my 5.55 position on HNU? hmmmmm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[mr2mike]

Bought HNU @ 5.21
Hopefully a good position. It could drop a little more tomorrow. Watching closely.

[max_boost]

Still waiting for the sell before May or sell in May cycle. Please. I'm not even asking for much. 11,500 TSX and I'm happy haha

[SilverRex]

if you recall my last post on the SSEC index (china) back in march, I expected a bit of a rise then fall towards a lower low, and so far it's been moving quite nicely. I dont know who much DOW/S&P500 or the TSX will fall, but for my own investment I wont be investing in the north american index, but will be looking at china instead. when the world market does take off, china is the place to be, their currency will continue to appreciate,

If the latest up leg in china is just a bull market phase one, look for a bottom some where between 2500-2600 then a new phase to begin. China's last peak above 6000 is hardly a top imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ssec042910.jpg

[max_boost]

How do I invest in the Shanghai Exchange?

Is there an ETF somewhere?

Good point SR. Maybe in 10 years, the SSEC will be in the 10,000-15,000 range like DJIA and TSX :bigpimp:

[max_boost]

Who's holding HNU? How are you guys holding up today? :devil:

[djayz]

Originally posted by max_boost
Who's holding HNU? How are you guys holding up today? :devil:

I got owned, decided that I would sell HND and buy HNU so I put stink ask/bids in for both and sold HND at 8 and got into HNU at 5.80..

Worst day ever since I've been holding HND for over a week now waiting for profit and the day it goes up I only make 30 dollars :banghead:

I was expecting a drop but not a 30 cents one haha maybe 3-4 cents but damn todays NG move is huge!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Who's holding HNU? How are you guys holding up today? :devil:

i unloaded all my HNU since technically it looks like it wants to head another 20% lower

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by in*10*se
if any of you have option trading and know what a straddle is... i'd take a couple hundred options and sit on DNDN

and for those bigger risk takers, theres typically a spike on CLDX ramping up to the first week of June. Get in now and leave before June and you can make a pretty penny. Aug call options are what i'm in, but i'll be out last week in may.

edit: oh and if you really want to gamble with something taking off.... APPY has had some spectacular runs.

happy gambling!

my 2 cents on my speculative biotech trading ;)

well DNDN has been FDA approved. halted trading but up 15% already.

and CLDX is up 9% today and should continue til end of may.

oooh i can't wait to play our trading game :D

[troyl]

Bought more HNU at 5.23 :dunno: see what happens tomorrow.

[in*10*se]

amazing what google can do maxb ;)

http://etf.stock-encyclopedia.com/category/china-etfs.html

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

DNDN at $50 now. :rofl:
1 year ago it was $4. :rofl:
What's the math? Way more than 400% right? :rofl:

I'm just too scared to buy any individual stocks no matter how good they are haha indexes only for me.

Good job in*10*se
Thanks for the link buddy btw.

[in*10*se]

Damn 1000% your tsfa would be at 50k from 5k.... FML what the he'll was I thinking? Ugh damn you dndn... Hahah oh well on with my spec biotech trading... Lol I like watching the nat gas playas though lol... Today hnd was the way the coin flipped... Hmmm need to find some more pops... :)

[e36bmw///]

nm

[davidI]

I'm sitting sidelines and have been too long. Dammit. Still hoping for that correction but who knows when or if it will come.

What do people think of some of the Columbian E&Ps? PMG, GTE, PRE? Their P/Es are huge, but it sounds like they have a ton of opportunity as well. My buddy had mentioned PMG a couple years back and I'm rather pissed I didn't get in then.

[projekz]

I'm curious to what you guys are playing with? I've been playing with domtar and some other paper giants and it's gone up ok but nothing crazy. Palm inc. did well yesterday with a 25% jump.

[troyl]

HNU :guns: atleast my OOO is popping today

[mr2mike]

Holding HNU still, troyl.
If it drops below $5, I'll sell. We'll see what Monday brings.

[troyl]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Holding HNU still, troyl.
If it drops below $5, I'll sell. We'll see what Monday brings.

Yup my average cost is now 5.49 comissions included. Really hope it can stay above 5, otherwise we may get some psychological selling pressure along with some stop losses getting triggered. My opinon only. I will contunue to hold though, summer is coming up (A/C) , hurricane season. In the weeks I have been holding HNU I told myself I would take anything over 6, which has occured twice, but here I am now in the red. I have always been a greedy trader I have to learn to take profit.

[mr2mike]

The Hori beta's are a hard one if you have trouble taking profits I think. You just start to see the euphoria of some good gains, then you get the ol' kick in the nuts with a 16% decline, removing all gains. I don't know how you fix this but these are a more difficult one I would think, if you have trouble taking profit.
That being said, I missed the last rally the stock had. It seems to cycle. Catch the right cycle and you're golden. Miss it and try to get in on the rise mid way and you could be in for it.

[in*10*se]

CLDX continues its run. :bigpimp:
DNDN as usual :poosie:

that is all. continue w/ the HNU/HND discussion
;)

[troyl]

Originally posted by in*10*se
CLDX continues its run. :bigpimp:
DNDN as usual :poosie:

that is all. continue w/ the HNU/HND discussion
;)

Did you execute your straddle on DNDN? What was your strike price and expiration for your options?

XEL still running 1.18 :cry:

[DJ_NAV]

oil to go up due to the spill in US....

also.. aez is being watched closely... cheaper stock.. but I think it can hit around $4 or so in 3 months.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by troyl


Did you execute your straddle on DNDN? What was your strike price and expiration for your options?

XEL still running 1.18 :cry:

call strike 50 may expiration
put strike 2.50 may expiration

yes i lost my puts but i sure made up for it w/ the calls
and it wasn't a perfect straddle, it was more a strap strategy than anything. (weighted more w/ calls, anticipating upward movement, but covered on the downside)

gonna see if DNDN announces their marketing strategy, i figure the stock is now stable and the more conservative investors can go into it without the worry of it dropping to 5 bucks anymore with FDA approval.

but right now... my calls on CLDX are around a 90% return right now... :)

[SilverRex]

after a bit of a breakout last week on the dollar index, revisiting the chart over the weekend has me now believed we are not quite ready to make a strong move upwards yet. We did however achieve testing the previous wave significance near 82.63 which took a few months when I first called our initial target to test. I am happy that we even broke thru it for a moment which suggest stronger dollar ahead.

but based on how much the dollar had fallen sharply late last week, this current up surge may not last and now I am expecting a further correction that would bring the dollar back down towards 80, the last 3 wave down to 80 has me doubting its correctional length relative to time, there for this would setup nicely for the market to head up in a one last swing before it is all set and done. And guess what, we are now in May, the sell in May and go away might just finally kick in for good this month.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar050310.jpg


as for oil, I underestimated its urge to move higher, while I was expecting it to fall alittle lower, apprarently it just dont want to, and hence the last few dipping towards under 82 has become corrective in nature and so the bullish momentum is now back on the fry, I believe when the market pushes higher is where we will see oil make a sweeping move towards 90+, then we may straddle for a few months so for short sellers, wait for a better entry, and day traders get ready to make a few more dollars on oil.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil050310.jpg

gold has been moving quite nicely, our idea that gold is to find a top between 1169-1194 is finally near its completion. with price just hovering above 1180, we dont have much higher to go if gold is to fulfill its bearish count and peak out some where around current levels then make for an aggressive sell off. I will change my view to bullish if gold can defy my expectation and take out 1194 and especailly 1226+, until then, I have to stick to my count that gold needs to fall first before it can rise. For the conservative folks, while it is not an ideal place to go long, its definately suicidal to short, wait for 10/20 EMA to cross over to the down side before taking any bearish action. but personally I never recommend shorting gold/silver, my strategy has always call for to buy the physical and hold on to it as long as you can, and reload when price is right, We will know this month soon enough if we will get the gift of lower gold prices

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold050310.jpg

[SilverRex]

quick read on the DOW, as you can see, we may have just completed a sub wave iv correction and we should one final push higher to complete our 5 waves up since march 2008 before beginning a multi month decline correction.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow050310.jpg

[mr2mike]

Interesting that you don't recommend shorting gold/silver. I never had a good feel for gold/silver so I stay out of it but I do watch it.

Thanks again for all your analyses SR!!!


Still holding HNU. Having more confidence in it as opposed to Friday where it was pushing the boder to move into the high $4 range. I'm happy with sideways movement for now and a good break soon.

[el_fefes]

Originally posted by davidI
I'm sitting sidelines and have been too long. Dammit. Still hoping for that correction but who knows when or if it will come.

What do people think of some of the Columbian E&Ps? PMG, GTE, PRE? Their P/Es are huge, but it sounds like they have a ton of opportunity as well. My buddy had mentioned PMG a couple years back and I'm rather pissed I didn't get in then.

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=PTA&t=LIST&m=27566593&l=0&pd=2&r=1


PMG has done really well that's true...

The only thing I would mention is that there are elections coming up at the end of this month. I am thinking people will likely elect a president in the same party as Uribe, the one responsible for implementing business friendly policies....

[el_fefes]

Also anyone here following Century Mining CMM on the venture?

I've done pretty well with this company and I think it's still a bargain at the current price.

[PeterGTiR]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Also anyone here following Century Mining CMM on the venture?

I've done pretty well with this company and I think it's still a bargain at the current price.

I bought some earlier today at 0.76. I think it's bullish, but I'm not sure about my timing as it seems to be dropping a bit before rebounding.

I also bought some Fortress Paper Ltd at 20.63 today so it does balance out the drop in CMM.

[mr2mike]

Nexen NG & Oil Marketing Newsletter
http://www.mediafire.com/?zdfdojiiz1z

[SilverRex]

quite the day we had this morning,

looking at gold first, really the only thing moving quite to my expecation. the call to a top between 1169-1194 so far is holding true, with gold having to hit as high as 1192.5 about then collasping 20 dollars.

Looking at the recent move since rallying off 1120s, it appears our 5 wave may be completed. If we have indeed seen the top, then expect gold to first confirm by taking out a previous resistance which is now support right at 1167, then ultimately for bears we would want to see gold take out 1150 that will be a serious indication of further weakness ahead.

the flip side which I can still be proven wrong is to have gold hold at 1167 and make a dash and breaking above 1194 then I'll have to revise the gold count turning it to short term bullish and as such higher highs are on definately on the horizon

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold050410.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok back on the dollar, perhaps running into a bit of a bad streak lately, but none the less over all trend I've always suggested the dollar is very much bullish, just didnt expect it to rise to soon and having to correct so little in its time relationship.

ever since dollar broke out a week ago off 81.50, it has since beginning to move sharply, my current take is, that we are beginining another 5 waves up possibly taking outs above 90 in due time. This mean the recent resistance we broke at 82.70 Must hold. Any chance that price falls thru that level may suggest something else. And to that I have an alt count where by the last 3 wave correction was merely still a wave iv within our 1st 5 waves. the recent surge is simply completing the final 5th wave, projected to be equal in length with our first wave .i which offered us around 4 pts on the index. that means if this alt count proves to be the path, the dollar should find its way near or at 84 then reverse for quite a correction.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar050410.jpg

[SilverRex]

with the sudden change in direction on the dollar, so did oil having trouble breaking above 87.

similar to my dollar stanze, I now believe the correction in oil for this wave ii to be incomplete and still looking for a lower low some where between 73-78. Yes it can draw down to as low as 73 because of the 78.6% fibo retracement that can come right after producting a 1st wave up. if the dollar is to keep climbing higher, oil will find it very difficult to sustain at current levels without much of a 10+ dollar sell off, to get oil to change trends in the short term it will have to break 87 and turn it into support, otherwise while the over all trend remains up, the short term is turning very weak

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil050410.jpg

[DJ_NAV]

i think oil sands related companies should go up for sure... not too sure about oil in general.

[max_boost]

Alright so do we have a multi-day pull back on our hands here? Patience or jump into the market for a quick 1-2% rebound tomorrow?

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldrepeat.jpg

[bimmere92]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
i think oil sands related companies should go up for sure... not too sure about oil in general.

I expect the same...

any companies in mind?