Official Short-term Investments Thread

[themack89]

Hey silver rex.. Just wondering.. What exactly is your performance YTD?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Penis McNickels]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey dont forget guys

hnu, hou etc should be trading on jul contract in a couple of days
I have some noob questions here and I was wondering if someone can explain a few things about HNU, HOU, etc.

Since they are double leveraged how does that work? Using simple numbers and ignoring commissions and fees, if I bought 100 shares of HNU at 5.00 and sold them again at 5.10. Did I just make $20?

I thought I read that these funds were subject to margin calls, is that true?

And with regards to e36bmw's post above, how are these funds affected when the futures contracts?

I've been watching watching these for awhile, but my lack of understanding has kept me away...

Thanks

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Penis McNickels]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
lol, no man you made $10

you probably actually lost money since you only had 100 shares

up $10 down ~$15 in commision

net loss of ~$5 or more


double leveraged means...

when nat gas goes up/down 5%
hnu rises/falls 10%

You know I've been looking all over google for a good explanation, but yours is by far the best and easiest to grasp.

Thanks!

[djayz]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey dont forget guys

hnu, hou etc should be trading on jul contract in a couple of days

Damn that means bad news for those holding HNU since the spread between may/jun contracts is roughly 10 cents (jun being higher).

[max_boost]

Where's SR? The oil/gold/gas/everything update.

Gold hits all time high, what now?

[Meback]

Shall we all buy HGD when it hits 2 bucks :nut:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Where's SR? The oil/gold/gas/everything update.

Gold hits all time high, what now?

if gold is to break out for real, then the previous high at 1226 must hold and become support, there by is a good bet to buy near 1226 if gold comes back to test that level, this is the best place to get in for those late comers,

of course if 1226 fails to hold then you know it may be a false breakout, but thats how you would do it.

[in*10*se]

who the hell names themelves.....Penis McNickels? :dunno:


:rofl:

[SilverRex]

amazing how gold has performed over the last year and so, I can still remember screaming long when gold was in the 800s, if only I sold my house and jumped in with both feet then lol, always easy to look back and say what if ;)

[e36bmw///]

nm

[DJ_NAV]

yea.... i had HGU at like 12 and sold it at 13.. did this about 3 times... i knew it was gonna hit 15 by mid 2010... shoulda held it.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

^^

So did HOD, TCK.B or DNDN (in*10*se :bigpimp: pick) at one point or another 1000%. ;)

But really how many of you guys can actually hold it for that long? :devil:

[in*10*se]

^ sigh... if i only puchased the options 2 years out... i'd be a millionaire... and i'd actually be able to post on beyond and actually say i was a millionaire and not be full of shit.

[Kobe]

Can someone lead me in the right direction to start investing? How to start up an acct?

[max_boost]

^^
Simplest way is to open up a self direct trading account with your bank. This way you can access it through online banking, transfer funds between your regular account and stock account. Everything is consolidated in one place.

Personally I've only used TD and RBC and I find RBC much better.

That's the easy part. Seeing how you are a poker player I'll say you are a relatively smart guy. I find a lot of similarities between Poker and Stocks. Or maybe there aren't and I'm out to lunch. But educate yourself on how the stock markets work in general. The index, the sectors, type of companies you want to invest in, your appetite for risk etc. And you need a bankroll. :D

[Penis McNickels]

Originally posted by in*10*se
who the hell names themelves.....Penis McNickels? :dunno:


:rofl:

I do!

[Kobe]

Originally posted by max_boost
^^
Simplest way is to open up a self direct trading account with your bank. This way you can access it through online banking, transfer funds between your regular account and stock account. Everything is consolidated in one place.

Personally I've only used TD and RBC and I find RBC much better.

That's the easy part. Seeing how you are a poker player I'll say you are a relatively smart guy. I find a lot of similarities between Poker and Stocks. Or maybe there aren't and I'm out to lunch. But educate yourself on how the stock markets work in general. The index, the sectors, type of companies you want to invest in, your appetite for risk etc. And you need a bankroll. :D


I was talking to a poker buddy and I realized I could prob get pretty good at it, I do have bankroll Management, and I am able to deal with pretty big swings, which is prob the two toughest things to control in stocks as well, (It def is in Poker)

I would def have to educat myself about stocks before I invest any money on it. I might take an intro 2 stocks course at MRU in Sept to get a decent outline.

[cosmok]

Hey SR do you think we'll fill in the gap around 1.04 on the USD.CAD or is it going to continue sideways / down?

[SilverRex]

well althought anything can happen but I was expecting the USD/cad to begin moving up once it finishes its current correction, there is a huge neckline support as well as a 78.6% right at 1.01, the swing is quite sharp last week, the answer is yes we will see 1.04 imo

[SilverRex]

here we go, Natgas lets go :thumbsup:

[DJ_NAV]

Wow, nothing is stopping gold.. What are some good gold stocks other than HGU? or YRI?

[SilverRex]

gold looking good to hit 1250, as I said yesterday after a small breakout, retest of 1226, bought in at 1228, time to see if this is a real break out, because if it is, it would move 100-200 dollars

[Mark_Nguyen]

Originally posted by SilverRex
gold looking good to hit 1250, as I said yesterday after a small breakout, retest of 1226, bought in at 1228, time to see if this is a real break out, because if it is, it would move 100-200 dollars

Do you think now is a good entry point for GAS (HNU) or do you expect a pullback tomorrow?

[SilverRex]

ok a quick update on oil, price is currently holding well between 75-76 area, although it did not hit the 73 low of my initial target when I dish out the bearish call a while back, it did get pretty darn close in to the 74s. Right now I expect the market will attampt to rally, and oil should find its way back to as high as 84, it doesnt have to but it could. its during this phase that I would look to short oil , because of the latest triple three correction pattern and the fact we now have a very strong negative divergence on the higher time frame, when price breaks below 70, all hell will break loose and we can easily find ourselves retesting our previous major support in the 50-55 area.

so be prepare to short oil as a longer term prospect but for the short term day traders, going long may also be a good play here.

looking at hod, gaps are seen at 8.25 and 7.60, there is where I will begin entering hod.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil051210.jpg

[mr2mike]

Great analyses as always SR!!

Lots of movement in the market today for hnu. Everyone's quiet... market must be good.

Looking to dump some hnu a little closer to $6 unless it has a big charge past $6 and into the $6.15 range nearing the end of the week. I don't see that happening but you never know. I can be wrong a lot. I hate to hold into the reporting day and it pullsback.

How is everyone with hnu treating things?

[djayz]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Great analyses as always SR!!

Lots of movement in the market today for hnu. Everyone's quiet... market must be good.

Looking to dump some hnu a little closer to $6 unless it has a big charge past $6 and into the $6.15 range nearing the end of the week. I don't see that happening but you never know. I can be wrong a lot. I hate to hold into the reporting day and it pullsback.

How is everyone with hnu treating things?

Sold all my positions today at 5.85, will wait for a pullback to reload although I have a feeling that we will see a push into the low 6's very quickly.


Canada awash in natural gas, report finds
Nathan VanderKlippe
14:48 EST Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Calgary — Canada has enough natural gas to supply the country for a full century, according to new statistics compiled by the Canadian Society for Unconventional Gas.

Fully 4,000 trillion cubic feet of the fuel are buried beneath the country's foothills, plains and lowlands, the society found after conducting a broad, coast-to-coast survey.

Of that, between 700 and 1,300 trillion cubic feet can be profitably brought to surface and sold, the society estimated in a report released Wednesday.

“This report highlights our country’s strength in the resource and that natural gas will be a key foundation in Canada’s energy future,” said society president Mike Dawson in a release.

“Based on current annual natural gas production rates of between 5 and 6 [trillion cubic feet], this report demonstrates that Canada has a natural gas resource to last more than 100 years.”

A relatively small part of that total will, however, come from the shale gas resources that have drawn a tremendous amount of interest and investment, both in Canada and the United States.

The society estimates that 128 to 343 trillion cubic feet of marketable gas will come from shale reservoirs. That's less than the total from remaining conventional wells, which are estimated to contain 357 tcf.

That is in part a function of the nascent state of Canada's shale gas development: industry has not conducted enough field work to determine how much gas is contained in shale reservoirs in Alberta, Quebec, the Maritimes and the North.

Natural gas companies have launched a massive, continent-wide campaign to promote the commodity as a cleaner-burning hydrocarbon that can serve as a kind of bridge fuel to help reduce emissions compared to energy powered by coal and crude. Encana Corp. , for instance, is working to build a natural gas-powered transportation corridor for heavy trucks in Ontario.

Reports like this one -- and a similar report that also found a century's worth of gas in the United States -- have only helped bolster their case.

[Hi-Psi]

I wasn't sure whether I should post this in here and or in the long term thread.

I have done some self directed trading through RBC over the years but been out of it for a little while now. Still pretty new though.

Anyways, just wondering if anyone had any suggestions for picks that yield a 6 month or less hold and would be relatively safe. I have $20k to play around with and have all day, everyday free to watch the stocks and buy/sell if needed.

Any help would be greatly appreciated, just hate this money sitting here doing nothing when it could possibly be making money.

Thanks

Jason

[troyl]

What is the game plan tomorrow team HNU? Sell before the inventory report comes out, or let it ride. Way to lock in some profits djayz!

[djayz]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi
I wasn't sure whether I should post this in here and or in the long term thread.

I have done some self directed trading through RBC over the years but been out of it for a little while now. Still pretty new though.

Anyways, just wondering if anyone had any suggestions for picks that yield a 6 month or less hold and would be relatively safe. I have $20k to play around with and have all day, everyday free to watch the stocks and buy/sell if needed.

Any help would be greatly appreciated, just hate this money sitting here doing nothing when it could possibly be making money.

Thanks

Jason

You can either get into a dividend paying stock or go balls out and try some of the etfs.

My opinion and something I tried for a while last year, is to buy into some large caps at a decent value, don't wait for bottoms as they never come, then just sell when they go up a few dollars. Just always remember to lock in profits whether they are 10 dollars or 1000 dollars.

Another strategy I have used that worked well was to find a decent dividend paying stock and buy it a few days after the ex-dividend date. This is the date that you have to own the stock for you to get the dividend and usually people sell out because they only bought to get the dividend. Then sell a few days before the ex-div date again because this is when everyone is buying in to get the dividend payout. Worked quite well on some lower volume players last year for me. Also worst case if you can't sell before the ex-div date you just hang on and collect the dividend.



Originally posted by troyl
What is the game plan tomorrow team HNU? Sell before the inventory report comes out, or let it ride. Way to lock in some profits djayz!

Yup couldn't watch it drop it value again. I watched it swing up and down so many times that I could've bought in and out and made 3x what I took home yesterday selling at 5.80 haha. I will be awaiting a pullback in the low 5's

[troyl]

Out hnu at 5.79 to scared to hold :confused:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[troyl]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow, this time we are up 94 bfc
and nat gas is up
wtf

They estimated a 100 bcf injection. :dunno:

[SilverRex]

Ng looking good,

but oil just realize the Jun/jul contract is nearly 5 dollar difference, that could hurt the longs if you day trade.

[Mark_Nguyen]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Ng looking good,

but oil just realize the Jun/jul contract is nearly 5 dollar difference, that could hurt the longs if you day trade.

whats a good entry point to get back to long?

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by troyl
Out hnu at 5.79 to scared to hold :confused:

Suckas... kidding. It's always good to lock in some profit! I could have been the guy smashing my monitor too.

I held. Looking to exit here, from where I see, there's resistance and it should pull back. Ya I don't get the whole reports that come out on inventories lately. They have little to no relation to the stock.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Mark_Nguyen


whats a good entry point to get back to long?

since we are right up against a major resistance, it could breakout or breakdown from here, while my over all feel continues to be bullish NG for many months,

if you havent already got in, the best place to get back in is to hope for a dive back towards the low 5s for hnu, since there is a gap there and it could be filled before taking off

I am going to save my ammo for such a move down if there is but I wont double up here as it could equally be dangerous short term

[SilverRex]

ok ever since gold broke 1226 and made a new high, I have to revise our count that gold is much more bullish than I initially thought, I never denied contiunes to be in a bull market, but the correction down to 681 was not a wave A, in fact the dip to 681 has completed the major wave II correction, which means we are in a major wave III advance. the current move up is a sub wave v of III of (III),

a few things to consider for such a count, that means price should and cannot break the previous high at 1033, and based on the fact that the entire major one gave us about 782 then this major III in due time will find its way to at least 1463 or higher. and dont forget we still have a major wave V, this may suggest 2000 gold is completely possible.

i mention from my last gold post that once we have a breakout beyond 1226, we wait for a retest and so far price has manage to retest and rally off 1227, hopefully for those that are in are positioned, and we are ready to for some major new highs ahead.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold051310.jpg

[max_boost]

I got myself some HGU. I am ready for some new highs ahead. :D

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
I got myself some HGU. I am ready for some new highs ahead. :D

personally I would go with hbu comex gold instead, just cause hgu hastnt really produce the type of gains that it should relative to the gold stock index, of course thats just me :)

[mr2mike]

Sold HNU @ $6.10 ya, I chickened out.

Nexen Weekly Oil and Gas newsletter
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=SW2D4Z72

[SilverRex]

anyways not going to post gold today since my last post suggest we are very much bullish, meaning, buy on dips, meaning, we shouldnt see any significant correction in gold until at least it climbs above 1300, until then treat all dip as a good buying opportunity.

now lets look at the dollar, it appears our true 1st 5 waves is about to complete, with price budging on the upper channel, it wont be long until it pushes into a multi-week long major wave II correction

my initial thoughts is to expect the dollar to retest and land near the 82.50 area in a 3 wave corrective fashion, however there is always the chance that wave II corrections can be steep, but we will monitor this when we get there.

a coming dollar weakness may just be the ticket for a short term up swing in oil (and further NG strength) in which point we will look at areas to go short in oil, but NG remains strong in my books.

I've seen Mr. Dent came out suggesting the market isnt quite finish and could force one more rally towards 11800 abouts. if that happens, prepare to go short, because like it or not, a big correction in equities are coming.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/sdollar051410.jpg

[s_havinga]

so what are the general thoughts on Oil? If I recall correctly $73 is a pretty important hold. It seems to be getting awful close to there. Could we see a quick jump on Oil over the next few days or are we on a downward trend?

[themack89]

Originally posted by s_havinga
so what are the general thoughts on Oil? If I recall correctly $73 is a pretty important hold. It seems to be getting awful close to there. Could we see a quick jump on Oil over the next few days or are we on a downward trend?

It's much better to wait until you see some reversal price action. Not try to catch the falling knife.

[s_havinga]

Originally posted by themack89


It's much better to wait until you see some reversal price action. Not try to catch the falling knife.

Ya, I already hold a position in HOU, I am more deciding on whether to hold on or dump it.

[themack89]

Originally posted by s_havinga


Ya, I already hold a position in HOU, I am more deciding on whether to hold on or dump it.

Depends how much cash you have..

Two scenarios you could try..

A: Dump it all and buy in at a lower price to avoid more downside exposure.

B: Double up when you see that price action reversal.



And not more than an hour after my last post Oil has just broken 73.00. :rofl:

[SilverRex]

gold just finished a sub wave iv correction and now begins a wave v towards 1300+

[themack89]

Oil broke 72.00 now! Maybe we will get to see sub 70.00 soon!!!! :hitit:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89
Oil broke 72.00 now! Maybe we will get to see sub 70.00 soon!!!! :hitit:

yes oil is much weaker than I thought, cant even wait for a rally to go short unless you've shorted since 80+

[SilverRex]

well here is the oil chart, it appears the latest lower low was the 5th wave of the 1st leg down, I still expect a bit of a correction back up to the 75-80 area, then it would be time to go short for a major sell off

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil051410.jpg

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex
anyways not going to post gold today since my last post suggest we are very much bullish, meaning, buy on dips, meaning, we shouldnt see any significant correction in gold until at least it climbs above 1300, until then treat all dip as a good buying opportunity.

now lets look at the dollar, it appears our true 1st 5 waves is about to complete, with price budging on the upper channel, it wont be long until it pushes into a multi-week long major wave II correction

my initial thoughts is to expect the dollar to retest and land near the 82.50 area in a 3 wave corrective fashion, however there is always the chance that wave II corrections can be steep, but we will monitor this when we get there.

a coming dollar weakness may just be the ticket for a short term up swing in oil (and further NG strength) in which point we will look at areas to go short in oil, but NG remains strong in my books.

I've seen Mr. Dent came out suggesting the market isnt quite finish and could force one more rally towards 11800 abouts. if that happens, prepare to go short, because like it or not, a big correction in equities are coming.


I truly hope this is the case.

[SilverRex]

good read on the latest greece crisis

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Greek-Debt-Crisis-The-Preview-of-What-is-to-Come-5-6-10.pdf

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I still expect a bit of a correction back up to the 75-80 area, then it would be time to go short for a major sell off



Watching this for Monday too. Should see what you're predicting and then I'll buy HOD hoping for a pullback. I don't see it rising significantly that's for sure so I think you're safe in hod now too if you already own.


THEMACK: I'm not a fan of the doubling up on a price reversal. Its too risky and you've got more emotion tied into something losing. You have to fight the temptation to run it to "get your money back". This means, dumping say hnu and buying hnd without real and I mean REAL analysis, emotion free.
My method right now: Have a exit point preset before I buy. If stock doesn't act how I think, cut my losses early. Wait and try again at a later date when it starts setting up again.

[themack89]

Originally posted by SilverRex


yes oil is much weaker than I thought, cant even wait for a rally to go short unless you've shorted since 80+

Nope.. I'm looking for sub 70s to go long for another play to 80 plus. Last time oil tried to bust 70 it was aggressively bought which makes me think its a price floor area.

Of course I will watch to see how it reacts when it trades down there

[max_boost]

Yo SR: you sure about this Dent guy?

http://blogs.sunlife.ca/todayseconomy/2010/02/harry-dent-sees-a-great-depression-ahead/

Summary:


Dent made six predictions during our call:
Harry Dent sees a Great Depression Ahead
February 09, 2010

* The U.S. stock market will crash in 2010.

* Recovery in the U.S. will be hampered by a massive deleveraging process.

* The commodity bubble will burst. We think oil is going to get back to somewhere between $10 and $18 a barrel in the next two, three or four years.”

* B.C. real estate will be a good investment, eventually.

* Worry about Japan’s sovereign debt. “Japan has got a unique problem. They already have unbelievable debt.

* Worry less about the U.S.’s sovereign debt.



Seriously?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by mr2mike


Watching this for Monday too. Should see what you're predicting and then I'll buy HOD hoping for a pullback. I don't see it rising significantly that's for sure so I think you're safe in hod now too if you already own.


THEMACK: I'm not a fan of the doubling up on a price reversal. Its too risky and you've got more emotion tied into something losing. You have to fight the temptation to run it to "get your money back". This means, dumping say hnu and buying hnd without real and I mean REAL analysis, emotion free.
My method right now: Have a exit point preset before I buy. If stock doesn't act how I think, cut my losses early. Wait and try again at a later date when it starts setting up again.

dont forget we are trading july contract and its 4+ dollars over the last month, so it could rise little then fall again once the charts rolls over as well.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Yo SR: you sure about this Dent guy?

http://blogs.sunlife.ca/todayseconomy/2010/02/harry-dent-sees-a-great-depression-ahead/

Summary:



Seriously?

well technically it points to that way, I know the market will drop, but the question is, will it be a inflationary correctional than rally, or will the drop snowball into a full blown deflationary collasp.

that is why the next few month is quite significant, for one, I want to start believing in the hyperinflationary scenario, because a deflationary depression is just out right scary, 10 dollar oil would complete destroy alberta oil sands and housing for that matter.

but if you look at how the world is saving the countries, they are just fixing the problem with more debt, more paper money. we will see how things unfold this summer

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex
my initial thoughts is to expect the dollar to retest and land near the 82.50 area in a 3 wave corrective fashion, however there is always the chance that wave II corrections can be steep, but we will monitor this when we get there.

I'm not going to argue with elliott wave theory, but if the USDx closes above 86 (even more so if 86.2 is captured) today I think the bullish case remains intact. It's always nice to read someone else's viewpoints, thanks for posting man

[kaput]

.

[civic_rida]

Curious why this guy is bullish on b.c. real estate.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by kaput
SR, when you talk about the dollar hitting 82.50, are you refering to the US or CAD and relative to what? Sorry, I'm playing a bit of catch-up here.

that would be the USD index, I believe the index is made up with mostly the euro

[cosmok]

^

* Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight
* Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight
* Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight
* Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight
* Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and
* Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.

[SilverRex]

ok after a good weekend to re-analyze the gold price, while now I am fully supported the bullish view, actually I have always supported a long term bullish stanze, only that a further correction did not pan out, so after back to the drawing board, here is the latest wave count imo

looking at the monthly chart, in order to explain the triangle pattern breakout we had last year which is a signature of a wave III/IV move, the current move should be a .v of (iii) of III

as you can see, ever since 2002, once it over came a resistance turned into support, it would correct around 38.2% each and every time after embarking a new high, it has beeing doing this since 2002, and produce this correction 4 times to date, that is why I now strongly believe, that once gold peaks out some where in the 1300+ area to finish the current sub .v of (iii), it would then correct some where to the min of 38% back down to 1000 area. YES, you read me, I believe gold price will eventual retest the all important 1000 mark at least one last time, which should give us one major buying opportunity before taking us towards 1500+ for a (v) and final wave of III, even then, we will get another major correction then another Major V wave which would then will most likely be parabolic, try not to think too ahead of yourself. with price hovering around the 1229 area right at this moment, it can still go both ways, read the next chart for the short term outlook

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldmonthly-1.jpg

[SilverRex]

on the lower time frame as you can see, there are sub divisions within division, talk about being extremely bullish here. like I said, right now gold can either consolidate around 1226 area, then launch into new highs, OR it can drop back to slightly below 1200 I would suspect 1180-90s before taking off to new highs, so if you havent already got in weeks ago, it might be a bit more risky now.

My recommendation for those already held gold since under 1000 to continue to hold it until gold peaks out above 1300+, then wait for price to reload back down to near 1000 for a (v) wave of major III

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold051710.jpg

[SilverRex]

from my dollar chart last week, I was expecting the dollar to reach a top to finish a v of V, and so the 87 that it reached may be the top. I now expect the dollar to correct back down towards the 82.50 area, this may produce a short term rally in oil after being sold off quite alot lately, but I only expect oil's rally if there is one to be corrective.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar051710.jpg

[SilverRex]

as i've mention this morning, gold can either hold 1226 and make a higher high or collasp towards 1190 abouts.

so far it looks more and more likely it has finished our sub iii of (iii), it would be a great pick up with price just under 1200

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/golddaily.jpg

[Neil4Speed]

Wow, Oil taking another hit, back down ~70 Mark.

Petrominerales down 9.2 Percent at time of posting.

[max_boost]

SR: Is this the beginning of the huge correction in equities?

TSX down 300pts. :zzz:

[cidley69]

How far is oil going to fall before reaching a bottom; any predictions?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cidley69
How far is oil going to fall before reaching a bottom; any predictions?

im going to shoot for 48-55 area, but not before at least a bit of a counter trend rally

[max_boost]

Originally posted by SilverRex


im going to shoot for 48-55 area, but not before at least a bit of a counter trend rally

If that happens it's probably going to bring a 20% correction to the markets. Time go long at that point?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost


If that happens it's probably going to bring a 20% correction to the markets. Time go long at that point?

remember this chart that I posted in the long term area

as you can see this may give us a good guide as to where the bounce may be if oil does correct significantly, by now I believe the neckline is up towards 45-50 area,

while I keep an open mind and anything is possible as the EW international still points to 10 dollar oil, but personally I think it wont happen since that would crash the world, and if we do see 10 dollar oil, I would load up the energy sector like there is no tomorrow, because the bounce right after will be sharp and fast and before you know it, the sell off will be finished.

I am going to believe in the hyber inflation route and expect oil to hold in the 40-50s area

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/attachments/metals/56290d1241986645-gold-calls-long-term-medium-term-intraday-calls-gold-here-slide5.png

[bimmere92]

Originally posted by SilverRex

while I keep an open mind and anything is possible as the EW international still points to 10 dollar oil, but personally I think it wont happen since that would crash the world, and if we do see 10 dollar oil, I would load up the energy sector like there is no tomorrow, because the bounce right after will be sharp and fast and before you know it, the sell off will be finished.


Any specific stocks in mind? i am looking to dump a some extra money into stocks and am looking for some insight/help...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bimmere92


Any specific stocks in mind? i am looking to dump a some extra money into stocks and am looking for some insight/help...

my eyes are set on husky energy hse.to

not sure if oil corrects further how it will effect it but when oil made a move to 87, hse didnt really move either, after all I Believe husky follows Natgas more so, and if Natgas is about to hit a multi month bullish trend into early next year, then husky would be a buy and hold with dividend

[themack89]

I seriously doubt Oil will go much lower than 70..

I said not too long ago it was aggressively bought when it hit sub 70 in early feb and its happening again.

:hitit:

Heres the quote!


Originally posted by themack89


Nope.. I'm looking for sub 70s to go long for another play to 80 plus. Last time oil tried to bust 70 it was aggressively bought which makes me think its a price floor area.

Of course I will watch to see how it reacts when it trades down there

[Hi-Psi]

I honestly don't have any idea if this affects their stock at all but Husky is just starting up their big plant project again in the oilsands starting today. It's been shut down for a while but now Husky is planning to go into hyperdrive to get caught up on lost time.

[SilverRex]

ok looks like oil has finished its 1st 5 waves down just near 69, while clearly 69 was our last major support, none the less a critical neckline has been broken to the downside just under 73 and to the naked eye, this is a sell signal, now I expect a 3 waves correction back to no higher than 82, first price should at least get back to 74 without much effort, if price can take our 74 without much help, then next target to hit would be 78, and again above 78 to reach 82 etc. I would either jump in for a day trade short term long or wait until a clear counter trend rally move and wait for a trend line break to the down side to begin a short.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil051810.jpg

[SilverRex]

and for gold, from my post yesterday I suggested price to begin finding its way into a wave iv correction that would extend towards 1190, and so far so good, after price at 1226 fails to hold, even the next support at 1213 also failed to hold. Right now the current view is that gold is in a sub wave iv correction. If you look at the time it took to correct wave ii, it took about 7 days, that is why I believe gold will remain week until the 21st before bottoming out then make a v of (iii) of .V of [III]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold051810.jpg

[SilverRex]

looks like Natgas is ready for the breakout , with a clearly positive divergence both on the daily and weekly chart, 10/20 EMA has crossed over, it wont be long until we hit 5 dollars again but over all trend remains up and I believe for the next 6-10 months we will have a very good run

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgas051810.jpg

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by SilverRex
looks like Natgas is ready for the breakout , with a clearly positive divergence both on the daily and weekly chart, 10/20 EMA has crossed over, it wont be long until we hit 5 dollars again but over all trend remains up and I believe for the next 6-10 months we will have a very good run

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgas051810.jpg

So for a future Natgas run, what stocks would you suggest playing in the short term?

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by kaput
Given your nat gas analysis, would this be a good time to buy something like HNU and hold it for a month or two (keeping an eye on this of course)? Or is that too dangerous to hold for more than a few days?

nothing is ever not dangerous, it all depends on if you have a exit strategy or not,

I dont see why hnu.to isnt a good play if natgas has indeed bottomed and ready for multi month rally. I am invested in hnu.to and will continue to hold as long as I can

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by kaput
I guess by dangerous, what I meant is in the past this thread has advised against buying these leveraged stocks because of a few tricky things that can affect them differently than other equities. I get the impression that most people here are in and out within a week, as opposed to a month or two. I'm unsure about the extra considerations that need to be factored into said exit strategy over a longer period of time.

yes, when your dealing with month to month future contracts and add 2x etf to it, it does not look pretty when things dont go your way.

for the record, shorting etfs in oil/natgas has always produce far better results when your on the right trend, namely because of the price premium when price rolls over to a new month, which limits the upside to a certain degree.

I dont intend to hold what I have in natgas for 6 month straight, if it when it does move, I would begin selling it on the way up, use what ever works, nothing moves in a straight line, when you feel it is over heated, exit and wait for a pull back, its going to be a buy on dips and sell at resistance for many months to come

[max_boost]

It's just tricky because no one can seem to catch the right wave. But I'm even tempted now that SR said nat gas looking bullish for the short term. :rofl:

[SilverRex]

hmm interesting that gold is showing some strength with a reverse H*S pattern off the 1210 area, if price sustains above 1230, perhaps the 5th wave up may have begun.

[DJ_NAV]

I have a feeling that Gold will hit 1300 before end of the year.. main reason for that is upcoming euro crisis.

[broken_legs]

Today could be ugly.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Today could be ugly.

Short squeeze, massive sell off or sideways? :burnout:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by cosmok


Short squeeze, massive sell off or sideways? :burnout:

Im going to go with Sell Off in the morning, muted recovery on no volume late in the afternoon and extreme volatility.

:)

[SilverRex]

as I've stated yesterday gold needed to sustain above 1230 to make its 5th wave move to new high, unfortunately it stop dead at 1230 and so the original expecation that gold is headed down to 1180-1190s is happening now,

I would expect the low to mid 1190s to be a place to go long

[SilverRex]

another good read from Mr Armstrong

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Closing-at-10520-32-Down-3-2-5-14-10.pdf

[max_boost]

Time to sit back and watch things meltdown :nut: :dunno:

[themack89]

Looks like crude is retesting 70 again! Will it break for good? STAY TUNED!!!

I'm still looking at a long at 70.

Stay nimble and profit..

[max_boost]

Markets bounced back nicely. TSX only -55 now.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Today could be ugly.

Again.

[SilverRex]

ok gold while expecting a down week until the 21st, didnt expect it to be a bit more bearish than first anticipated,

with price flerting with the trendline holding just in the low 1180s, gold must bounce soon, but as long as it does not go lower than 1167, I still see it as a sub wave iv correction and we begin our wave v, in the event that 1167 is broken to the down side, then a recount will be needed, perhaps warrants a deeper correction, and so we look to our next major support just under 1150, only a break below 1144 would it kill all entire up trending momentum that was set back in april when price broke thru an important line in the 1130s whihc signal the upside surge. basically, if 1144 gives way, we could be looking at 1000 gold sooner than we first thought, which imo would be an ultimate buy and could very well be the final low of the decade.

so keep your powders dry

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold052010.jpg