Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

Natgas about to make a bottom, I suspect anything 5.00 or below on hnu is a steal.

[SilverRex]

looks like natgas was chasing its gap after all, although I expect once gap is fileld it will begin the next move up, still targeting the 9-10 area for longer term, but like I said, anything close to 5 or below is a very good buying opportunity

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgas052010.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow oil is just fuc*ed

yeah i was hoping oil would rally than I can go short, but its so bearish right now

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex


yeah i was hoping oil would rally than I can go short, but its so bearish right now

natgas inventory report out within a min, should be interesting
hope everyone is on board Natgas for longer term

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by SilverRex


natgas inventory report out within a min, should be interesting
hope everyone is on board Natgas for longer term

Increase in inventory it seems! hmm.

[cosmok]

If the dow closes below 10,400 look to 10,000 for the next support. What a day

Edit: It's beginning to look like that "glitch" was quite the foreshadow of levels to come

[SilverRex]

wow oil looks weak, the fact that is holding well above 69 now suggest that we should see a counter trend rally soon, for the short term either wait for a good rise to go short or a quick play for oil might be worth the risk on a intraday basis

[DJ_NAV]

i think im gonna short oil just for a day....risky but might be worth it.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
i think im gonna short oil just for a day....risky but might be worth it.

wait for it to at least bounce a few dollars up first,

[SilverRex]

ok so gold is indeed finding some good support off the mid 1170s, however gold is hardly out of the woods with some heavy resistance above 1200+,

while I would like gold to complete its correction this week and shoot for new highs, I cannot rule out the possibility of a much larger correction. If support at 1167 and 1144 does not hold, then we could very well hit a steeper correction as cyclist suggested to find a low some where near the end of June,

look at this gold weekly chart, see how similar we are moving comparing us back to 2003, after gold briefly punched thru a double top, it collasp into a "C" wave before taking off, it also made a lower low before taking off, that would imply gold has a worse case scenario would revisiting near 1000 dollar,

So again, save up your ammo, I would not short gold at all, but if gold does drop towards 1000 from now until end of June, you know what that means

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldmoves.jpg

[cosmok]

Wow oil is getting absolutely crushed

[max_boost]

Originally posted by cosmok
If the dow closes below 10,400 look to 10,000 for the next support. What a day

Edit: It's beginning to look like that "glitch" was quite the foreshadow of levels to come

Yeah fuck. Oh well. Knew it was coming. :nut: :dunno:

[SilverRex]

I think it wont be long until we hit at least 60 oil here

[SilverRex]

lets visit oil for a moment, I was hoping to catch a significant counter trend rally in oil then to go short, unfortunately, oil is much more bearish than first thought, and as such, I expect lower oil hitting the waves fairly soon,

current count suggest we are still within a wave (iii) decline and a sub wave iv correction with a megaphone abcde pattern with breakout to the down side, unless oil (july contract) can breakabove 74.5, my view is that anything towards 74 would be a short down to 60-65 oil

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil052010.jpg

[DJ_NAV]

Originally posted by SilverRex
I think it wont be long until we hit at least 60 oil here

i think nows a good time to get in... get in and get out early tmw

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
so still wait for $5 hnu?

5 dollar is a gift, NG has filled the gap and can turn up from here

[projekz]

Fuck me...I went down like 14% today! All my shit has lost $$$-nothing positive:banghead: :banghead:

[djfob]

Originally posted by projekz
Fuck me...I went down like 14% today! All my shit has lost $$$-nothing positive:banghead: :banghead:

I know that feeling too well, been on holidays for a week all of a sudden I'm all red.:nut:

[Team_Mclaren]

please tell me USD will tank again soon. I need more USD....:banghead:

[SilverRex]

as I posted last time on gold, with price failing to hold in the low 119x, the next significant support lies in the 1171 and no lower than 1167. Sure enough this morning as I write this, gold has rallied off nearly exactly off 1167 and now trades back at 118x (reason for support shows the level of 1171 to be a fibo retracement from the last 3 higher lows to 1249.

Whether this correction ends because we have completed around the same 7 day correction as we did back in april, or simply only a short term bounce before a lower low, I still expect a bit of a rally off this level back towards 1200+

the key will be to even your stop loss once price gets over 20 dollars off 1167, because 1167 must hold, if the faint bullish momentum of still producing a sub wave v of iii and reach into the 127x is to take place, but if price fails to take off and continues to flert with 1167 a break below will immediate set off the next target into the 1144-1150 area as the next swing point low

I'll say continue to keep an open mind that in the even we see 1144 gave way, then we can expect gold to become very bearish and we look to a chance to reload near 1000-1050

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold052110.jpg

and for the dollar, the last time I posted dollar made a top near 87 and since then I was calling for the dollar to make a major correction back down to 82.50, while the dollar did fall lower after created a divergence topping out just above 72, it has will soon be at a cross road today or comes early next week. As you can see in the chart below, dollar is within a up trending channel, and so far it is respecting this and trying to setup a move back to the upside (so either we have just completed a near term ABC correction and if the dollar can push itself back above the broken the H&S neckline above 86.25 and sustain itself above it, then the dollar bulls will be right back but so far the pattern does look bearish so until it does move to the upside I'll expect lower lows for the dollar.

One thing that is interesting is that gold is now following the dollar, which signals in order for gold to make new highs, so will dollar have to break higher, but if dollar is to correct further towards 84 then perhaps even 82, that would bring gold down, I wonder if gold and the dollar is now decoupled from its former relationship of moving against each other. Definately interesting times

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar052110.jpg

[KappaSigma]

Anyone recommend a cheap/decent discount brokerage that does TFSA trading accounts.

Im too lazy to "google" right now.

thx

[themack89]

Today and this weekend will be very important for Crude.. Let's see how it reacts to a retest of 69 area.

A failure to break and hold means I'm long.

[SilverRex]

for a short term yes DOW tested 9900

I dont see it breaking just yet,

with dollar appears to be weakening for a bit (correction)

I would expect oil, dow, gold to rally a bit here before falling again

[SilverRex]

the moment gold breaks above 1183-1184 I expect gold to get back to 1200

[themack89]

Rex I'll bet you 10 bucks oil doesn't break down! :poosie:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89
Rex I'll bet you 10 bucks oil doesn't break down! :poosie:

like I said I dont expect it to break down just yet still expect oil to make another attampt towards 74 and depending how it reacts we will know if we have a stronger correction or resumption to the down side for 60 oil

do not forget we are trading july oil around 70, a few days ago the Jun contract right before it expire got as low as 64s,

and if you remember back in the day when oil was making new lows towards 33, the front contract price no matter how big the gap/contango was, the following month once it rolls over, tends to go after the low it sets.

so i wont be surprise crude will find its way at least to 64

[themack89]

I'm saying I'll bet you 10 bucks it will hit 80 again before 64!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89
I'm saying I'll bet you 10 bucks it will hit 80 again before 64!

when oil was still above 80 I would have bet you that it would tank,

but anyhow now that it has dropped nearly 20 dollars within a month, I too am expecting a very high probability that it will counter rally between 5-10 dollars.

so if that is my expecation, why would I bet you on the same thing I expect? my current count may suggest below 69 if oil cannot break above 74.50, it does not mean I am 100%, my view still stands from last week that I wanted oil back towards 78-80 so I can go short

[Neil4Speed]

Has this ever happened to anyone? Serves me right for not setting a limit, regardless though.

ntended on buying all shares of PBN at $23.40.

21 May 2010 12:29 PM EST PTB 0856 PBN CDN Buy 300 23.75
21 May 2010 12:29 PM EST PTB 0856 PBN CDN Buy 65 23.40

Cross reference this to the Google Finance price chart. Take a look at 12:29:

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:PBN

I don't see anything even close to 23.75, same goes for Yahoo Finance Chart, as with the Time and Sales Back tracker on Stockstream.

WTF Royal Bank?

[themack89]

Originally posted by Neil4Speed
Has this ever happened to anyone? Serves me right for not setting a limit, regardless though.

ntended on buying all shares of PBN at $23.40.

21 May 2010 12:29 PM EST PTB 0856 PBN CDN Buy 300 23.75
21 May 2010 12:29 PM EST PTB 0856 PBN CDN Buy 65 23.40

Cross reference this to the Google Finance price chart. Take a look at 12:29:

http://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE:PBN

I don't see anything even close to 23.75, same goes for Yahoo Finance Chart, as with the Time and Sales Back tracker on Stockstream.

WTF Royal Bank?

Never do market order... Always do limit order.

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

well for those that cant stomach the swings on hnu, another one you can conisder that I've seen many are playing is PMT-UN.to

the chart looks like the mid 4s was a low and could put in a nice double if and when Natgas does lift off

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/Natgas052210.jpg

[themack89]

I am now loving the look of long on Crude @ 70.00

[troyl]

What is everyone's game plan for tomorrow? I am looking at OSK<10.00. I may also look to add to my CLL position my profits have been greatly diminished this past week, but i am still up about 30%. If crude can hold up I think it will be a good buy at around 1.30. Then there is always HNU for a little excitement low or sub $5 range I agree with SR time to load.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by themack89
I am now loving the look of long on Crude @ 70.00
I hope you had a contract that you flipped and not HOU, it's going to get hammered at the open

[SilverRex]

alright, after a long canadian weekend, time to get back to the market. My last post on oil suggested that unless oil can break and sustain above 74.5, chances are good its heading lower, while it did head lower, I didnt expect it to finish sooner, the abcde wave iv correction was indeed started earlier and thus has begun to breakdown,

recalling the fact that our last month's contract (jun) traded as low as the 64s, that will be the target to shoot for before a good counter trend rally to begin. However be advised that the current count looks like the current wave iii down is a sub division, so the counter trend rally may be limited before yet falling again

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil052510.jpg

[SilverRex]

also for the US dollar, I suspected that last week if dollar can regain above 86.25, then it will force the dollar the move higher, the trend channel has held the dollar in check in this wave (iii) advance, while I still expect the dollar has topped out in the 74s. As long as 74.50 isnt broken to the upside, I am going to expect a correction is still to come. Given stoch is oversold and the fact we have a gap left at 85.5 to be filled, its only a matter of time until the dollar comes back down.

the one thing that may be extremly bullish, is the fact that if dollar puts in a flat correction between 87-85, (remember this recent up leg for the dollar to 87 is only a sub wave i of (iii), that would thrust the dollar up to new highs way beyond 89.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar052510.jpg

[SilverRex]

and gold, I mention last week that if gold can break above 1185, it will attampt towards 1200, unfortunately, its struggling to do so, so far ending a top near 1197, it does look like the recent move off 1167 support is corrective, so caution, expect gold potentially to retest 1167 if not towards 1144 if it fails to break above 1197, even above 1197 would not ensure gold to be out of the woods until it can climb above 1218 so for those who bought in near 1167, set your stops to even or take your profits and wait for a lower price

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold052510.jpg

[SilverRex]

Natgas has hit the 4.02 this morning, if the recent pull back is simply just a retracement, then it should be the place for a rally. but do remember the alt count that it can still potentially dive towards 3.55, so dont throw everything in one basket.

[themack89]

Originally posted by cosmok

I hope you had a contract that you flipped and not HOU, it's going to get hammered at the open

Lol I hate commodity ETF's, would much rather use futures.

And I'm still just watching crude, I would love a daily close today of around 70 to reconfirm the strength of the level.

Just watching watching watching. This is why trading should not be exciting haha.

[Red@8]

So much for picking up hod at the open. Looks like i'll have to wait it out and catch oil when it starts to rebound.

I'm still too scared to trade nat gas etf's again.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Red@8
So much for picking up hod at the open. Looks like i'll have to wait it out and catch oil when it starts to rebound.

I'm still too scared to trade nat gas etf's again.

pmt-un.to would be a good choice

[max_boost]

Anyone making any money out there? :rofl:
I'm not :(

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

husky energy is very close to its 2009 low of 24.78

it would be a good buy around this area imo

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by SilverRex
husky energy is very close to its 2009 low of 24.78

it would be a good buy around this area imo

SR, any reason why you like Husky over, CNQ, NXY, CVE or the Petrobank/its derivatives?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[eljefe]

If your looking energy, close to a 52 week low and very good yield on the dividend cos.un

[DJ_NAV]

Suncor also hit it's 52 week low.

I think HNU has failed everyone, yet people people on beyond buy it every week?? why???

[max_boost]

Originally posted by DJ_NAV
Suncor also hit it's 52 week low.

I think HNU has failed everyone, yet people people on beyond buy it every week?? why???

Horizons also has a 2X TSX Energy sector HEU if interested since we all love 2X's haha Top holding is Suncor (18%).

As for the comment why everyone buys HNU? HA guys I don't know.

:rofl: :nut: :dunno:

[mr2mike]

Speaking for myself, I did a good run on HNU last rally up. I know others did well too. Just not so sure this week for another run. But on the other hand, if it falls

But, yes, risky and volitile.

In SU on the US side of things. Didn't pick the bottom but hopefully close. I forget the exact price I bought but in the $28.50 range. Will hold longer term.

[Hi-Psi]

Can anyone suggest a good stock ticker for watching stocks throughout the day?

[mr2mike]

I just have Google Finance setup, leave it minimized and bring it up every few hours.... when I buy HNU, it's every 5 minutes, lol.

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by mr2mike
I just have Google Finance setup, leave it minimized and bring it up every few hours.... when I buy HNU, it's every 5 minutes, lol.

I'm just curious to why everyone is worried about HNU and keepingg their eye on it so closely, are you not planning for the inevitable up swing you'll see once Nat Gas eventually goes up? Or are you just trading daily for small gains?

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi
Can anyone suggest a good stock ticker for watching stocks throughout the day?

I use Stockstream by Stockwatch, about $12 a month for live feeds and works pretty well for live prices. The charting is crap though.

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi

Or are you just trading daily for small gains?

Trading every few days. Wait till it bottoms (which it's close right now) then ride the wave up and sell. Not always the case and you can get caught big time.
I was half joking that I check every 5min with a HNU holding. Not too worried about it, it's when people jump in after it rises 12% in two days, that I would worry.

[max_boost]

Markets only -34pts now!

Nice recovery! :eek:

[cosmok]

Originally posted by max_boost
Markets only -34pts now!

Nice recovery! :eek:
What a day, would have been better if I was awake for most of it :rofl:. Hope everyone else made some money

[themack89]

Crude is looking better every day.. Too much buying sub 70 they can't seem to hold it down there.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89
Crude is looking better every day.. Too much buying sub 70 they can't seem to hold it down there.

after dropping from 87-64 in June contract, I would expect it to rally some what regardless if it can fall again or not

[SilverRex]

alright, so after gold options expired on the 25th, its just too funny how they managed to keep the price form reaching 1200 until after,

but the fact that it broke above 1197 confirmed further upside, So far the 7 day correction ended off 1167 perfectly which is an important support if gold is to have any chance of new highs,

however now we are yet at another crossroad, if gold is to breakout and complete its v of iii here and reach some where onto 127x, it will have to break above 1218 as the next test,

so one can either take your remaining profit now and wait until such break occcur and get back in or take a chance that 1218 will stop gold's recent advance and wait for a better price such retest of 1167 or lower with 1167 as wave A of a steeper correction. Again I am going to try and fit cyclist's turn date that gold to bottom 3rd week of June, then we must anticipate the possibility of gold heading lower yet again,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold052610-1.jpg

[SilverRex]

(photobucket is down for maintenance; cant post any more charts atm)

looks like market is ready for a bounce this morning, looking at oil, it will need to break above 71 to initial a move towards 74, then above 74.5 to initial the next uptick towards 78

until then wait for confirmation as oil is right at a very strong down trending neckline that can still push oil back down.

Natgas looking strong this morning, if our bottom is in, we should not see natgas dive to new lows below 3.88 then 3.82, if this happens, then our original count that the recent run towards to 4.55 was indeed wave iv and we have one more drive lower towards 3.55 with a disasterous worse case at 3.00 before bottoming. However my current view remains that 3.82 was the bottom, and the recent rise to 4.55 was a 1st wave breakout move, follow by a steep retracement which we should have completed and ready for a major wave iii advance taking us above 4.55 for good

for dollar index, I continue to favor further weakness after setting a double top at 87.45, dollar remains in a sub ii of III correction imo, but in the event that 87.45 is suddenly broken to the top side, expect the advance to take hold immediately that should mark a move strongly above 89

[SilverRex]

as you can see the 3 paths with green being the most bullish, blue being realistic, and red being worse case

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldpaths.jpg

and oil, first hurdle, break above 71 for 74 play or wait for 64 oil

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil052610.jpg

[troyl]

Bought some CLL traders yesterday at 1.24. Hope they work out today.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

lower level showing negative divergence for gold, it should be time for it to turn back down

[SilverRex]

pmt-un.to continues to shine,

for the safer investor who doesnt like the wild 2xetf swings, buy and hold pmt until year end.

expect it to double the very least, you can also sit on the div

[djayz]

Originally posted by SilverRex
pmt-un.to continues to shine,

for the safer investor who doesnt like the wild 2xetf swings, buy and hold pmt until year end.

expect it to double the very least, you can also sit on the div

Has there been any news regarding PMT.un converting into a corp? That could have a negative effect on the stock later in the year regardless of how good NG does.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[cosmok]

Looks like the USDx wants to punch through to new heights :thumbsdow

[themack89]

Originally posted by SilverRex


after dropping from 87-64 in June contract, I would expect it to rally some what regardless if it can fall again or not

Doesn't matter who's wrong or right, just make money off it.

I do wayyy more watching than I do trading, I could care less if im 'wrong' 99% of the time as long as my account balance is going up and not down. :clap:

I think difference here Rex is you are looking more at the 10 day chart than the 9 month chart and I am looking at the 5 day chart as well as the 9 month chart.. And ultimately this is why I'm choosing the long side trade over the short side trade..

[SilverRex]

ok so after oil jumping over 71 has spawn a bit of a rally towards 74, now key is if it can break above 74.50, if it can, rally continues towards 78, if it cannot, prepare for a resumption of down trend

gold tested 1218 to the tee and has produce a higher level negative divergence, as long as 1218 holds I am still expecting gold to find its way back down

NG is holding well in the 4.21 range closing the week above this could produce some EMA cross over back to the upside, the next time we break 4.55 should be a wave iii breakout, todays inventory could again be interesting.

while euro made a new low, the dollar index managed to be kept under 87.45, while I still expect the dollar to correct back down, the fact that gap is lefted between 87-87.2 only means we will eventual get back to this level, so light up your dollar shorts

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex
while euro made a new low, the dollar index managed to be kept under 87.45, while I still expect the dollar to correct back down, the fact that gap is lefted between 87-87.2 only means we will eventual get back to this level, so light up your dollar shorts

You think the CAD is going to continue to advance against the USD? It's looking a little over sold right now

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok


You think the CAD is going to continue to advance against the USD? It's looking a little over sold right now

oversold yes, I expect to see 1.10 usd/cad at the very least. however depends if the dollar wants to correct further or not, if the dollar suddenly breaks out yet again (euro collasp) then CAD will resume its fall towards the above target

[SilverRex]

with the market looking green this morning, that would produce a mini iH&S on DOW pointing towards 10400-10500

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex


oversold yes, I expect to see 1.10 usd/cad at the very least. however depends if the dollar wants to correct further or not, if the dollar suddenly breaks out yet again (euro collasp) then CAD will resume its fall towards the above target

I'm trying to plan my short reversal, I think all the Euro trash has been priced in over the last week. 1.04 range is where I'm thinking of pulling out. As always thanks for the input

[SilverRex]

gold looks pretty strong this morning despite a good drop off 1218, if 1218 fails to hold, next resistance is 1226-1231, above 1231 would immediately bring the bulls back for new highs imo

[SilverRex]

Natgas shrugged off the inventory report pretty good I imagine, recovered most of its loss this morning,

dow and oil both titering at their important level, breakout occurs with dow over 10200 and oil over 74 about.

I wonder if this translate to gold breaking above 1218 and test 1230 area (78% fibo) we'll see

any rally is to be taking cautiously as I believe they are counter trend and would head back down

edit: added more hnu.to

[themack89]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Natgas shrugged off the inventory report pretty good I imagine, recovered most of its loss this morning,

dow and oil both titering at their important level, breakout occurs with dow over 10200 and oil over 74 about.

I wonder if this translate to gold breaking above 1218 and test 1230 area (78% fibo) we'll see

any rally is to be taking cautiously as I believe they are counter trend and would head back down

edit: added more hnu.to

Crude is a channel play for the last 9 months, not smart to bet on a low probability breakdown if you factor in the economics of supply and demand for crude.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89


Crude is a channel play for the last 9 months, not smart to bet on a low probability breakdown if you factor in the economics of supply and demand for crude.

a cyclist points to a low in 3rd week of june for commodities, which includes oil, so it will be interesting to see where oil lands comes June.

I suspect due to the euro crisis and the fact the market could suddenly break down 10-15%, it could drag oil down, but without a doubt I have crude on the back burner that it can only stay low for so long so timing is everything, buy low sell high period

[max_boost]

So looking at a short term target of $78 oil? I sure hope so. Need the CDN $ to go up, I need to exchange a fair sum of USD very soon.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
So looking at a short term target of $78 oil? I sure hope so. Need the CDN $ to go up, I need to exchange a fair sum of USD very soon.

right now its around 1.05 usd/cad

the next level of support is around 1.045 or tad under, if that doesnt hold you can look forward to 1.03 but I think for the time being that is all I see on the horizon, I dont think you will see par unless the USD out right collasp, but as long as euro's collasp isnt finished, CAd will continue to remain week against the USD still targeting the 1.1-1.15 area for the next rise

[e36bmw///]

nm

[sgouki]

Man I keep missing out on HNU. Gonna have to wait it out. I'm kickin myself for not jumping on when it was 5.09.
Out of curiosity, how much do you guys put in to each company? 10k?

[SilverRex]

ok so far the week has been pretty nice to us,

expecting dollar weakness while not the type of fall I envision, none the less the dollar is holding its own ground,

looking at the chart this morning, it does appear it has broken down or out of its own trend channel, and I can only continue to expect further weakness ahead at least retesting the 85 level as there is a bit of a gap to be filled there, obiously the latest move down looks kind of corrective, then again why wouldnt it? as we still expect the dollar to make new highs this year or even this month,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar052810.jpg

with the dollar is in fact going to be show some weakness, this could fuel oil higher, so far after oil taking out 71, it was pretty nice to see it fulfilled our 74 target, and the fact that it has managed to break higher into 75 suggest higher oil may be in the cards, looking at the daily chart here we are right on the edge of either direction, its going to be a retest of a broken neckline then fall or any higher will set off further rally in oil back towards 78+ (if you use the dollar as a guide) then the obvious corrolation would be that if the dollar does fall to my expecation, then oil will rally higher.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil052810.jpg

and now for gold, ever since calling a good support off 1167, gold has been rising quite steady. its now torn between the bulls and bears with just enough from both side to keep price stabalized, I see a side way action going on between 1206-1218 which are now both fibo levels. a break in either direction should set off at least 10 dollar swings, but imo I say any movement beyond 10 dollars after the breakout would determine the next direction. My over all few suggest we should see gold back down before it should climb to new highs, the gap under 1180 sticks out like a sore thumb.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold052810.jpg

[SilverRex]

a quick touch on the canadian dollar, as I said yesterday, the next support for usd/cad is right at around 1.045, its either going to rally from here or the next support around 1.0300 for the next day or so, take your pick

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/cad052810.jpg

[SilverRex]

yesterday Natgas showed a lot of strength recovering all of its loss from the negative inventory report and closed green

lets hope our count that Natgas has bottom holds true, and the next time we breakout should take us right back towards 9+ area

I know some EW expert is calling the recent action as corrective (wave iv) and it needs to head back down towards 3-3.55, so keep that open,

but to me I cam going to stick out my neck and say that our wave iv finished at the end of april when it hit 7.72

look for 10/20 EMA to cross over to the upside, if we can breakout then this iH&S pattern or triple bottom or what ever you want to call it should give us quite the launching pad

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung052810.jpg

[KappaSigma]

Anyone else thinking of buying BP soon. Even after cleanup costs they have too many producing assets to not be a big player moving forward. Plus their dividend payout is looking nice right now.

[SilverRex]

UNG is right up the trendline, either it will turn down or finally breakout for good

[mr2mike]

I have thought about BP. I just don't know though. Pretty risky, but then again Martha Stewart's stock recovered nicely after her prison sentence.
It's just Obama is trying to make BP hang out to dry. You see it in headlines. He is not going to let them get away with this. Unlike the financial bailouts where the US gov't handed support.

If you do, it's a long term hold. Debt is said to be closing in on a billion in costs.

Anyone else want to chime in?

[kaput]

.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by mr2mike
I have thought about BP. I just don't know though. Pretty risky, but then again Martha Stewart's stock recovered nicely after her prison sentence.
It's just Obama is trying to make BP hang out to dry. You see it in headlines. He is not going to let them get away with this. Unlike the financial bailouts where the US gov't handed support.

If you do, it's a long term hold. Debt is said to be closing in on a billion in costs.

Anyone else want to chime in?

Whats a $billion dollars when the company historically earns around $20 billion profit per year and its not like this well at 5,000K barrels a day is a huge hit to their daily production. For me, I am going to wait a few more weeks and see how Europe and oil plays out. Hopefully it drops a bit more. If BP pulls into the $35-38 range I am going all in.

[Red@8]

Got out of my HGD earlier today for a small +.

[cosmok]

I really need to learn when to take profits off the table :thumbsdow. Everyone make money this week?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Whats a $billion dollars when the company historically earns around $20 billion profit per year and its not like this well at 5,000K barrels a day is a huge hit to their daily production. For me, I am going to wait a few more weeks and see how Europe and oil plays out. Hopefully it drops a bit more. If BP pulls into the $35-38 range I am going all in.


YOu're considering the affect of a 5000 bbl/day miss on production and not 200,000 bbl/day ecological disaster clean up costs??? :confused:

Going long BP is stupid IMO.

Who do you think is going to pay all the class action lawsuits?

Who is going to pay for the ongoing cleanup?

Who is going to have all their future wells overly scrutinized and delayed pushing back future production?

BP will probably get partially nationalized in the process...

I would be going long some other oil company that will eventually come in and become the operator (w production interest of course) on all of BPs assets.

Until i see a figure, or a real number for how much this will cost BP, i wouldn't touch them.

[bwling]

I'm not sure about the long term potential of BP either. This isn't the first time they've caused an environmental problem...seems more like a systemic problem rather than an "accident". Unless they make some big changes within the organization, this will just keep happening over and over again.

[SilverRex]

ok going to get this out of the way during the weekend,

lets look at the dollar first, the last two week since dollar topped out above 87 is nothing but a correction no doubt, however this correction may have limited the down side since it retested the 87.45 top a few times,

while my latest count suggest we are in attampt to complete a C wave to end this correctin some where near 85 or slightly below, we have to be careful as the lower level time frame produced a positive divergence and lifted upwards. My recommendation is to wait this out until either the dollar takes out 87.45 then we go long for a wave (iii) advance OR wait for a C wave to bottom some where at or below 85

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar052910.jpg

The Dow chart looks a bit more clear, after completed a mini wave iii extension below 9800, it is now in a counter trend rally just completed its first wave A near 10300, expecting a bit of a tive below 10100 next week then another mini 5 waves up towards 10500 to complete our wave (iv) correction, wave (v) should take us below 9800

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow052910.jpg