Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

im going to look at CAD again, since someone has requested this (and I play this myself)

looking at the chart I suggested last week the 1.04500 area or slightly below would be a good spot fo price to rally,

this area may have completed our wave (ii) correction if this was it, then the next rise should take us well above 1.0850 towards 1.12 or higher given the previous wave (iv) offered us 700 or so pips.

however I have thrown in a 3 scenario, a very bullish tone would be having cad just keeps climbing higher, but a more realistic view is we should see one more dip attampt towards 1.0450 but above 1.0400 to create some sort of positive divergence then lift us out of the gate to new highs. A weaker scenario would have price move steeper down towards the 1.0250 neckline, which is holding this entire uptrend since last month, a break below this neckline would immediately kill this entire bullish out look and take us right back down, but right now I do not see that happening, so look to buy on dips all the way until 1.100+

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/cad052910.jpg

[SilverRex]

for oil, last week I said after another dip we should see a counter trend rally, and so far its doing just that, since break 71 for 74 target. Met,

and now breaking above 74 should spark further highs, my expecation is that one mini dip then we move towards 76-78 area to end the wave iv correction, but no higher than 81, breaking 81 would kill the bearish tone, but since Cyclist called late June for bottom, then oil isnt done dropping, so a short term rally for day traders then a wave (v) down to below 67 (I'll say 64 for now)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil052910.jpg

[cidley69]

Maybe a noobie question but:

is there a formula for determining, if oil = x, then HOD = y ?

or is there a website that tracks both of these together?

[s_havinga]

There kinda is but only if you look at x and y in terms of percent.

If Oil decreases x(%) then HOD goes up by 2x(%)

so if you need a formula I guess it would look like:

y(% gain)= 2x(%loss)

I think that makes sense. Other correct me if its wrong.

[SilverRex]

the blue path for usd/cad is moving according to plan, after the low 1.04 this morning, it is now flerting with the downtrending neckline which if broken will begin wave iii of (iii) imo that should take us to 1.11-1.12 at the least

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey SR, whats your prediction for oil tomorrow?

seems like after memorial day, oil rallies but im not sure

im still expecting a bit higher oil, then its ready to go short, the US dollar is just itching to begin another leg up, so all downside is now limited

[whodiman]

Originally posted by s_havinga
There kinda is but only if you look at x and y in terms of percent.

If Oil decreases x(%) then HOD goes up by 2x(%)

so if you need a formula I guess it would look like:

y(% gain)= 2x(%loss)

I think that makes sense. Other correct me if its wrong.

keep in mind this formula holds true for about.....1 day. That's why this ETF is guaranteed to lose you money over the long run. This is also why the analysts recommend you stay away from this and the other double leverage funds. this and all of the other types of erosion the fund provides you with.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by whodiman


keep in mind this formula holds true for about.....1 day. That's why this ETF is guaranteed to lose you money over the long run. This is also why the analysts recommend you stay away from this and the other double leverage funds. this and all of the other types of erosion the fund provides you with.

I wont say its 1 day, more like a month until the future contract rolls over.

and dont forget if it was going a short etf such as hod and you catch the trend, you actually benefit from it, since the roll over each month actually gives you a higher oil price to short with,

your funds get eroded away when oil tanks and your trying to go long, but not the other way around.

still I agree, ETF are for day traders unless your planning to play the short side.

[whodiman]

Originally posted by SilverRex


I wont say its 1 day, more like a month until the future contract rolls over.

and dont forget if it was going a short etf such as hod and you catch the trend, you actually benefit from it, since the roll over each month actually gives you a higher oil price to short with,

your funds get eroded away when oil tanks and your trying to go long, but not the other way around.

still I agree, ETF are for day traders unless your planning to play the short side.

There is more than one form of erosion here. the month to month is one very obvious one. The other is the daily re-balancing of the futures contracts which occurs (explained in the prospectus). i have tracked the nat gas one for quite some time. Had i held the HNU since jan 2009, the nat gas price at the time is down about 10% but you'd but out about 90% once you calculate the 2 reverse splits.

A friend of mine just played with HOU recently. He only held it for about 1 month. Oil was up $2 but he was already water.

You can make money on these but it's not easy. You probably need the help of these cool charts SilveRex keeps putting up.

[Red@8]

^
I never hold on to these ETF's more than a couple of days.

With that said - just picked up some HOU before the close.

[cosmok]

Numbers were better than expected today, I think if we see a rate increase by the BoC tomorrow the CAD is going to become very bullish.

[SilverRex]

ok so the dollar has made another attampt at cracking above 87.45, although euro made a new low, the dollar has not really pushed thru that level, but the probability is high, if we close a few bars above this, it would be a breakout, the only other path I see is if the dollar again gets rejected but I will see a neckline holding it us up around 85.2-85.5

right now dollar looks very bullish, I would look to buy on dips or wait for a break out then retest. Will only view dollar back to neutral (further correction) if it can swing below 85.25, otherwise hold on tight fellas

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar060110.jpg

this may force oil to end its corretion and begin another wave of sell off (after taking out 73 support, looking bearish as well, oil will need to get above 75 to force the 78-80 play, otherwise expect the sell off to resume unless it can recapture above 73 (if 73 turns into resistance, then watch out below)

[SilverRex]

ok while oil broke down below 73, 73 did not turn into resistance, and thus we may actual have a ABC correction on our hands, if oil breaks above 75, chances are we may still see 78-80 after all.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil060110.jpg

[SilverRex]

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/Ung060110.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

n,m

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
stupid ass oil

wtf is up with it

cant argue if it drops, after all the current trend right now is weak oil until the end of June, no one can really predict how high the correction will go before the drop resume, the highest I see is 78-80 and that is only a best case scenario for the rally.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Natgas showing strength again today, we are right back and the trendline, come on, I want to see a breakout for once, its been too long :D

[cosmok]

Originally posted by cosmok
Numbers were better than expected today, I think if we see a rate increase by the BoC tomorrow the CAD is going to become very bullish.

This, cleared my position at 1.042 and will wait for more direction

Edit: Looks like we may head lower here..

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok


This, cleared my position at 1.042 and will wait for more direction

Edit: Looks like we may head lower here..

yes it does appear the red path from my last usd/cad chart is beginning to pan out. right now price is testing the 3 hour 200 EMA which is the same 200 EMA that has held us up since being on par. while there is still a slightiest of chance we can still hold our heads above 1.04 and make our targeted move to 1.11

if this level does break, next support would be at 1.028-1.03 which will be our last support to maintain the bullish target of 1.11+ otherwise, we will be headed right back to par

[mr2mike]

I don't see HNU breaking out this week. Maybe time for some HND, although I haven't owned that for months now.

[cosmok]

Big move below 1.04, didn't expect it to do that on the first attempt.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok
Big move below 1.04, didn't expect it to do that on the first attempt.

currently usd/cad is supported by a water fall line connecting the previous lower lows just around 1.0367 let see that the low of the day is in due to oversold condition

[SilverRex]

natgas just surged to a new day high, is this the breakout?

yesterday the same trendline held us down, we are right back at it. will today be the day?

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung060210.jpg

[mr2mike]

Exciting day with HNU, watching closely. Who's betting against the trend? I'm going to pass on this one for now.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[themack89]

Silver, I think you have to start thinking of commodities as price floors and price ceilings and supply + demand.

In specific market conditions a price floor can be clearly established due to supply and demand whereby if a price gets too low it will be bought up fairly aggressively because it's pretty much arbitrage, the reverse with a ceiling.

Commodities do not operate in a "oh someone is sitting at the offer here and hes spoofing" etc..

I just think your approach at drawing lines like that is failure. The commodity is not being priced via that trendline you drew, and a 'break' of that line you drew probably wouldn't mean anything at all.

*Edit.. It is also for this exact reason why I said I like the long crude at 70, not because of a 'trendline', but because I believe in current market conditions Crude oil does not deserve to be priced much lower than 70. AKA A price floor.

Fixed:

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/3061/fixed.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89
[B]Silver, I think you have to start thinking of commodities as price floors and price ceilings and supply + demand.

In specific market conditions a price floor can be clearly established due to supply and demand whereby if a price gets too low it will be bought up fairly aggressively because it's pretty much arbitrage, the reverse with a ceiling.

Commodities do not operate in a "oh someone is sitting at the offer here and hes spoofing" etc..

I just think your approach at drawing lines like that is failure. The commodity is not being priced via that trendline you drew, and a 'break' of that line you drew probably wouldn't mean anything at all.

*Edit.. It is also for this exact reason why I said I like the long crude at 70, not because of a 'trendline', but because I believe in current market conditions Crude oil does not deserve to be priced much lower than 70. AKA A price floor.

Fixed:


to each their own, what ever works for you man, I have my own style and I stick to it. after all, how can you say trend lines are failure? if you go back over a year I was already calling oil bullish on the break out of the trend lineback in match 2008, and as a result, had one enter during the breakout or upon the retest of the trend line, you would have been at the start of a very strong trend reversal. if we were playing the suppor floor and ceiling, then I would have got in a bit to late dont you think? do you really think supply and demand means anything? in this corrupted world of economy, the big players will do what ever it wants to change the market condition, so fast, some times you just cant get in fast enough.

I believe that price regardless of market condition will be reflected in the price. I dont aruge with you that there is a floor and ceiling and one can day trade that until it breaks, but dont tell my trend lines are failure, because I see them work alot more often, and when they fail, it doesnt mean trend line fails, it just means something else is going on and now you have to re-evaluate the situation,

same thing with gold, and dont you think gold is also about supply and demand? and how many times did it knock on 1000? if you look back when gold took out a very important trend line off the low 900s, I called gold to new highs (that was before I took on the EW principle) since then I got lost in the woods for calling gold back down, but it turns out, gold was in fact in a very bullish up trend, and stick with my initial call on the heels of a trend line break was the best thing ever, how many would wish they can buy gold at 900

anyways do what ever works for you man, if you dont like my trading style then keep your mouth shut, I've posted over a year straight, and I have the records to prove TA always have its place

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oilbreakout.jpg

[SilverRex]

oh and while your at it, lets look at something hot off the stove, last week I said when oil was in the 74-75 range, it's either going to move higher or the previous trendline break can turn price back down. (posted on May28)

geez, now what other reason do we have for oil to get rejected right at the neckline?

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil060210.jpg

[SilverRex]

if you go back a bit further when oil was still being knocking down to 67, the same phuckling trendline that was forcing oil lower and lower was right at 71, and I said breaking that will move us back to the next over head resistance in the 74 area on the lower time frame., and it did just that. (posted May 26)

what supply and demand you say?

the bad natgas inventory report lately should have forced price to new lows, but it hasnt ..yet

you also need to look at cycles and ratios between commodities, I was told natgas will begin to out perform crude as it begins to march higher towards next year

[mr2mike]

Different analysis, and yes, do what works for you. Personally, I check out the price ceilings and floors too.

There is over analyzing things as it all boils down to supply and demand.

I still appriciate SR's analysis and the time and patience to upload all these chart images that I would otherwise have to pay for with a trading platform.

I also don't mind a little healthy debate on this stuff. But all in all we should all be working to all make money. SR isn't trying to sabotage anyone and nor is he saying do what I say... just another analysis which I value and I also value the ceiling/floor chart you posted.

Can't wait to see what tomorrow brings with HNU.

I'm in SU on the US side since $28 something and it's working out well so far.

[themack89]

I don't feel like arguing with you for very long.

I mostly said its fail because theres 1000 ways I can draw trendlines and make it appear like a certain scenario, and then either it will work or it doesn't and nobody really thinks twice. I will agree TA is pretty good on stocks, but commodities I wouldn't say so much mostly because real things are affecting price not just some douche bag pushing price up or down with good ole deep-pocket manipulation.

I don't care enough to go look at your records because to me this isn't about e-peen size, it's just a debate. But I think the biggest problem is with TA on commodities is this: it creates cognitive illusions that what you are doing is actually resulting in the correct solution. E.g. Sure I can say x reason to go long and you can say y reason to go long, and we could both make money. It's just over time if reason x is more concrete and reason y is just tea leaves which happens to sometimes result in the same answer as x, then it improves performance to go with x.

But this quote:


Originally posted by SilverRex
[B]oh and while your at it, lets look at something hot off the stove, last week I said when oil was in the 74-75 range, it's either going to move higher or the previous trendline break can turn price back down. (posted on May28

All you said was, paraphrased: 'it's going to go up or down'. Thanks? I don't get it.

*Edit Yes I understand cyclists and seasonal trading patterns.. It's just another tool you can use to justify a specific trade. I know oil usually sees a tank to mid June, but realistically this year I think we've seen it a bit earlier because it also says crude generally tops out during April to May--a topping process which we have also already seen. Christmas comes early sometimes.

[cosmok]

^^As with anything, do your own due diligence and make your own decisions, opinions posted here are just that; opinions. It's very helpful to look at divergent view points, helps to give you perspective.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89
I don't feel like arguing with you for very long.


But this quote:



All you said was, paraphrased: 'it's going to go up or down'. Thanks? I don't get it.

*Edit Yes I understand cyclists and seasonal trading patterns.. It's just another tool you can use to justify a specific trade. I know oil usually sees a tank to mid June, but realistically this year I think we've seen it a bit earlier because it also says crude generally tops out during April to May--a topping process which we have also already seen. Christmas comes early sometimes.

The WHOLE point in posting what i said, is to show you trend lines are not failure, since that is exactly what you said. You said you do not believe investor would buy or sell based on that but supply and demand instead.

what I posted on May28 was this, there was a trend line at 71, and if broken we can then expect price to head further up. Did you know what TA really is, is an educated guess of probability, it gives you a sense of what is more likely going to unfold. No tool can ever make you money 100% of a time, just like trendlines can fail at time so do price floors and ceiling, yes it has so far proven to be moving between a range, but whats the off chance as soon as I play the swings, it decides to finally breakout? would that mean your ceiling and floor pattern failed? NO, it just means the conditions have changed insuch that price needs to be reflected upon and now we are moving into a newer trading pattern or range. But while it was working is because, seeing price trading side ways, it gives you a good probability of what is happening in the past is more likely going to contine to re-occure.

That is why I said I can agree with it, but what I dont agree is off the few post you have coming in here and suddenly telling me my style is a failure but in fact it has worked on so many occasion that cannot be ignored

I offer my style of opinion and analysis, and I say please repect that. I try my best to post almost every day for the entire 2009, but what I realize is the lack of discussion and people like you who just come in here and discredit other people's work instead of appreciating it, it really wants me to just stop posting once and for all.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil052610.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89
I don't feel like arguing with you for very long.

I mostly said its fail because theres 1000 ways I can draw trendlines and make it appear like a certain scenario,

i disagree, you can say there are 1000 indicators you can place to show like a certain sceanrio you want.

but there is only one way in drawning trendlines, connecting the higher highs or lower lowers based on the swing points, but to qualify a swing point it has to be within 5 bars where the center bar is of the highest with the two following bars producing a lower low and lower high. vice versa for a swing pt low.

read up on Tom demark Trendlines (http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://www.how-to-trade-currency.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/TomDemark.png&imgrefurl=http://www.how-to-trade-currency.com/how-to-draw-proper-trend-line.html&usg=__QqGvL7B2iVVMCjC8kqGd0X2grOc=&h=240&w=215&sz=10&hl=en&start=10&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=a9nlwv_cmrrqfM:&tbnh=110&tbnw=99&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dtom%2Bdemark%2Btrendline%26um%3D1%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26tbs%3Disch:1)


one trendline may crosspath with another one based on various time frames, higher ones such as a daily or weekly trendline. This trendlines tend to be more important and can stop price at its track because there there are also large money at play who uses these monthly trendlines and pivot points for entering and exiting the market.

But smart investor would watch from top to bottom, determine the trend on the higher time frame then proceed to a lower time frame to spot a rising trend reversal that produces the same direction as the higher time frame, thats when trend line breaks comes in as a very good first indicator that a new trend may yet be unfolding.

[Rat Fink]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
You two pretty much drew the same damn lines. LOL. SilverRex plotted a trendline for 2010, and mack89 plotted trendlines for the last few months.

Both work. looking at the "ceilings and floors" AKA trendlines for the past few months will give you a more short term vision on what its doing. Zoom out on that graph to encompass all of 2010 and draw trend lines on what you see (like SilverRex did) and you'll get a 2nd picture with a more longer term indication of what could be happening.

You could zoom out to a 5 year chart and get an even longer term scope on things too.

Hell, a 30 year chart will show peaks and valleys and give another set of trend lines as well.

As part of my T/A I look at short term and longer term charting to give myself short term and long term outlooks. Why are we even debating on this? Its stupid. They're both trend lines! One guy is plotting trendlines for 2010 and one guy is plotting trend lines on a 3 month sideways movement. Same damn shit! LOL

+1

im just pissed when people saying drawing lines is a failure.

[tryingtobebest1]

LOL SR, relax i truthfully belive in you and your graphs even though that im not posting much!
Whats natgas prediction for today

[SilverRex]

with a positive inventory report looks like we are so far getting a good breakout move on Natgas

[cosmok]

US crude inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week.

This is interesting


Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged 19.7 million barrels per day, up by 8.1 percent compared to the similar period last year.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex
with a positive inventory report looks like we are so far getting a good breakout move on Natgas

If the USDx cannot break 87.4 on its 5th attempt do you think the rejection will be quite powerful?

[Hoagie]

http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/dataSuite.html?template=fut&productCode=CL&exchange=XNYM&strategyType=SP&selected_tab=energy

is this the chart you guys are using to watch crude?

[Red@8]

Originally posted by Hoagie
http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/dataSuite.html?template=fut&productCode=CL&exchange=XNYM&strategyType=SP&selected_tab=energy

is this the chart you guys are using to watch crude?

Yes thats what I use.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by Hoagie
http://datasuite.cmegroup.com/dataSuite.html?template=fut&productCode=CL&exchange=XNYM&strategyType=SP&selected_tab=energy

is this the chart you guys are using to watch crude?

This (http://freeserv.dukascopy.com/chart/?stock_id=9&stock_id=9&interval=10&points_number=200&view_type=candle&width=400&height=300&show_labels=true&osc_type=1&rfi=false&height=300&p1=2&p2=3&p3=7&c=311186&detach=true&copyr=true&refcode=e766777a574bc7d7a3ef0363230b78e458715865524e9659e76ad27d9747a7ad777b667233677872) is the chart I use outside of IB and Chartstation, CME is good for instant rates if your broker cannot supply you with them.

[SilverRex]

gold is collasping so far so good looking for a cycle low in 3rd week of June. it got near the 1231 a break above would have killed the bearish out look and force a immediate bullish move towards 127x.

Silver is right back at an important H&S neckline, if broken, would signal further sell off into the 15-16s

but until we see it break down further I suspect gold at 1200 to put up a good fight

usd/cad starting to move the way it should, it didnt quite get to 1.03, but it got close, correction may have finish and now on a move towards 1.1
edit: previous broken neckline holding it down near 1.045, unless the dollar index breaksout, usd/cad will get knocked backdown

we'll see if the dollar index can finally break above 87.45 for good.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex

edit: previous broken neckline holding it down near 1.045, unless the dollar index breaksout, usd/cad will get knocked backdown



1.046 held and it looks as though the USD is running out of steam. If the swing point at 1.0443 isn't held I agree that the pair will head back down for a retest of 1.035-1.037 area. This volatility is a wondrous thing.

[broken_legs]

WOW... This thread just got a whole lot more interesting!


SR your insights are always appreciated.

TheMack, every post you make oozes attitude.


Lets get back to the markets:
Anyone thinking about going long RIG here?

They are a 100$ stock trading at 50$ right now. Generally speaking the contractor has no liability in these environmental disasters because its the operator that is in charge. They have billions locked up in long term contracts over the next few years...

But who knows what may happen.

Im trying for some slightly out of the money calls here. Just a small position, nothing serious. Stock could easily jump back to 55$-65$ with a change in the breeze.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by broken_legs
WOW... This thread just got a whole lot more interesting!


SR your insights are always appreciated.

TheMack, every post you make oozes attitude.


Lets get back to the markets:
Anyone thinking about going long RIG here?

They are a 100$ stock trading at 50$ right now. Generally speaking the contractor has no liability in these environmental disasters because its the operator that is in charge. They have billions locked up in long term contracts over the next few years...

But who knows what may happen.

Im trying for some slightly out of the money calls here. Just a small position, nothing serious. Stock could easily jump back to 55$-65$ with a change in the breeze.

unless its tied to natural gas, i would stay away from the general market until the end of august. we could see some wild swings this summers. If its oil, then give it a few more weeks

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
SR are you buying more HNU?
Or waiting for pull back?

Looks like there is a breakout but can it last?

im all loaded up while its nice to cash in right now but I am going to wait it out, what I want to see is turning the 4.5 area into a strong support

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Originally posted by broken_legs
WOW... This thread just got a whole lot more interesting!


SR your insights are always appreciated.

TheMack, every post you make oozes attitude.



:werd:

It's all good. We all have a common goal, to make money! So let's focus on that.

[max_boost]

Nice day on HNU. Good job boys. :bigpimp:

[SilverRex]

a quick update on ung, so it appears we have a breakout day finally been waiting for this for like over a month.

now that we have broken to the topside, a very bullish move will be that price continue to rise and at best any retest will put 7.79 as a strong support.

I will be using the 10/20 EMA to gauge my profit and until it turns bearish (Crossing over) I will attampt to hold on as long as I could (may sell half if it climbs back to 9s as I see our first major resistance)

a realistic and probable retest is the black path which will retest the previous broken neckline, I believe if price does come back down, those who missed the breakout will all jump back in there.

so those who did not get in, can either wait for a further advance and a retest of the 7.79 support or simply sit out unless price hits below 7.50

now if price suddenly takes a turn and heads back to 7.00, that will kill my EW count as I believe we are in a sub wave iii of (I) there is plenty of upside here folks I hope this count holds true and so we can profit all the way to 10 dollars

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung060310.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Red@8]

Got in a little later on HNU than some of you guys but having a good day today. May have to take a look at ung on the us side.

[mr2mike]

NATURAL GAS WEEKLY UPDATE REPORT RELEASE
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp?src=email

[in*10*se]

max boost quote this stock for me one year from now...

SEL.V

this is my next version of DNDN

[kaput]

.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by in*10*se
max boost quote this stock for me one year from now...

SEL.V

this is my next version of DNDN

I'll quote it now. I'll throw $5k into it TFSA and whatever happens happens lol :rofl:

[cosmok]

Wow USD went nuts.

Edit: These swings are ridiculous, 70 pips in less than a minute? :nut:

[SilverRex]

ok so from my last chart on the dollar index, we are still very intact with our ascending triangle breakout pattern. as seen here, rising higher lows and resistance right at 87.45 chances are increasingly favoring a pending breakout, that may force a wave of selloff in most sectors because a strong us dollar usually is a deflationary sign.Bearish case would be if the rising lows are broken to the downside which is between the 85.8-86.25 area if this area is broken then I would sit on the side line

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar060410.jpg

always keep an open mind because if the dollar do not breakout and takes the bearish path, then usd/cad will suffer as well. right now its still struggling being held down with two intersecting trendlines. it will need to climb and sustain over this before most smart investor jump back in if you havent got in a the mid 1.03x with a tight stop below 1.0325, then might as well wait for confirmation with price moving above 1.0475

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/cad060410.jpg

for oil, ever since being rejected by the daily neckline that turned from support to resistance. it has been struggling to advance further. I still view this current rally as countertrend. meaning its only a matter of time until it turns back down and retest 67, but so far clearly, it is showing support at 72. so one can attampt a short if oil suddenly breaks higher towards 77-78 or if 72 is broken to the downside which ever comes first. that is my current view

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil060410.jpg

for gold, recalling my previous scenarios, if gold is to be very bullish at this stage, it must continue to rise and take out 1231 after touching the 1167 support which cannot be broken if the bullish case is to remain on the table. since it got within ticks of 1231, again the bears are re-enforcing the idea that we should potentially see a lower low (below 1167) if that is the case it will first have to take out 1191-1197 area, then it would open up 1167 immediately. pending how 1167 holds up or not, (I believe it will rally here regardless of direction which will be a good place to have a position going long with a tight stop.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/GOLD060410.jpg

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by in*10*se
max boost quote this stock for me one year from now...

SEL.V

this is my next version of DNDN

Why such lofty expectations?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok
Wow USD went nuts.

Edit: These swings are ridiculous, 70 pips in less than a minute? :nut:

the next major crisis is a currency crisis so be prepare to get use to this

[cosmok]

Originally posted by SilverRex


the next major crisis is a currency crisis so be prepare to get use to this
I wouldn't have minded so much if I was on the right side of it, interesting days

[SilverRex]

ok a quick update on UNG (which is really natgas)

while the breakout is very encouraging and on large volume too, please keep in mind our alt count. I have posted this before and continue to do so, for those that are well positioned, if this rally is for real and natgas has finally bottom for good, then what we should see is an impulsive uptrend unfolding. meaning prior resistance should become support.

my chart here shows the bullish path in green, then we should retest then launch off round 7.79, if that is the case our first target is 8.50 ( a good place to take profit?) then onto the 9s

but the blue path which is a steeper correction back down to 7.50 wouldnt the may only mean its trying to retest the previous broken trendline. but becareful becahse if 7.50 does not hold, it could immediately signal further weakness back down to 7.00 area this may produce the alt count shown in the chart and suggest our wave iv correction wasnt quite finished in the first place, if that so, we are to expect one last dive below 6.72 then imo it will be bottomed for good.

so if your green, take some profit off the table, it never hurts to lock it in. and dont be foolish to hold onto your postion even if the warning signs are there.

but for now, lets view this breakout as real and see if it can sustain momentum

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung060410.jpg

[SilverRex]

wow talk about natgas doesnt want to stop

edit: sold 30% hnu and converted to pmt-un.to

[whodiman]

Originally posted by SilverRex
wow talk about natgas doesnt want to stop

edit: sold 30% hnu and converted to pmt-un.to

good call on pmt.un. i did some FA on it and bought it a few days ago. turns out to be a good choice so far.

too chicken to buy HNU though. i 'm not as big of a believer on TA but i know it can be a very useful tool.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by whodiman


good call on pmt.un. i did some FA on it and bought it a few days ago. turns out to be a good choice so far.

too chicken to buy HNU though. i 'm not as big of a believer on TA but i know it can be a very useful tool.

scaling back a bit here, sold another 30%, keeping the other for a target to 5.2-5.3

rising a bit too fast too soon. Will want to see how it reacts to the 4.51-4.55 area if it does retest (maybe jump back in with tight stop)

while I do not favor one more sell off to under 3.82, but it would create such a bargin I must begin to create extra ammo. the EW count is haunting me to not load up the boat. So I am keeping an open mind.

hack I'll just add to my pmt position if all else fails

[max_boost]

Is it just me or HNU goes up on days when everything else is down?

Good call on nat gas SR. Respect man.

[cosmok]

Originally posted by max_boost
Good call on nat gas SR. Respect man.
+1. I should have listened about the dollar as well

[Red@8]

Oil keeps flirting with that $72. Anyone looking at HOD?

[troyl]

Originally posted by Red@8
Oil keeps flirting with that $72. Anyone looking at HOD?

Sure am, roll over begins next week as well.

[djfob]

Originally posted by max_boost
Is it just me or HNU goes up on days when everything else is down?

Good call on nat gas SR. Respect man.

Just sold most of my HNU position for very healthy returns, thanks SR:thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

dow closing the week below 10k would be a bad sign then again been expecting further weakness anyways

[Red@8]

Originally posted by troyl


Sure am, roll over begins next week as well.

I hesitated picking up at 11.6x and now i am just watching/waiting for a second chance at that today. Not sure why I didnt pull the trigger already.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Red@8


I hesitated picking up at 11.6x and now i am just watching/waiting for a second chance at that today. Not sure why I didnt pull the trigger already.

yeah oil looks pretty weak for next week so does the overall market.

I sold all my hnu, only one position in pmt

I am going take a chance that it will retest those important levels to confirm the breakout

ung that would mean 7.79 and 7.50 and natgas that would be 4.55 and 4.51, if price lands near those level I will get back in but with a very tight stop, because if those level do not hold, then it puts the current rise in question.

ung has met my initial target of 8.50 by hitting 8.47, that was a previous low which acted as resistance and it did.

there could be blood on the street next week

[cosmok]

Lets go USD! Better late than never :poosie:

[SilverRex]

ok going to update thru the weekend here, less work on monday morning.

so far its been a great week for trading the dollar index, the triangle wedge, barrier wedge or ascending triangle, what ever you want to call it. moved exactly to my expecation. after producing the ABCDE wave, it broke out above 87.45 with conviction.

Current count suggested (because of the triangle correctional pattern) we are now on a sub dividing wave (.v) of (III). The dollar remains very bullish and we can buy on dips with target to at least hit 89.6, then our last major resistance at around 92.5 the scary part is, if this is broken to the upside, there isnt really much resistance until the 100s but we will monitor that when we get there.

87.45 should become a very strong support, I'll view a bearish case if it shall break below 78.25, as long as this doesnt happen, buy on dips will be the strategy next week.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar060510.jpg

now looking at gold, the bullish case may still yet be intact, while I suggested gold to find a bottom sometime near the end of the month, the rally on friday was impressive. Has gold really decoupled from the main market? While I'll only view crossing the 1231 area to resume our bullish path. what is interesting is that since silver is looking very bearish at the moment, Gold may potentially be in a consolidation mode. So my latest view is that we may see a triangle pattern for gold, with a breakout above 1249, unless of course gold immediately breaks new high next week then that will be extremely bullish, what that will mean is it will turn 1226-1249 as the next major lanuching pad towards 1350.

but for now i will stick to the idea that gold remains in a consolidation pattern. But keep in mind, gold can be quite volatile, if paper gold gets hammered like they did in 2008, then it will have to take out 1167, that is when you might want to consider sit aside and wait for a better price to get back in some where close to 1000. I can only imagine 1000 gold is a very strong buying area no matter which direction it goes to.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold060510.jpg

finally wanted to look at oil quickly, with dow closing below 10k, obviously that will setup further weakness next week, currently oil has dropped below the important 71.6-72 area support. which suggest our wave iv correction may be over. If this decline is real, then it should turn 71.6-72 area into a resistance as it heads lower towards 67. But in the event that there is a counter trend rally early next week and oil moves right back up above 72, then it will signal our correction isnt quite finished. Recalling my initial target remains at 77-78 area for a good area to go short. So this can still be unfolded if oil does not decisively move down right away. So keep this in mind, weak oil yes, but watch for any rally pushing it higher before falling.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil060510.jpg

[Commanderwiggin]

What do you have to say about HOU?

[nobb]

Anyone planning on buying HOU monday? HUGE dip right now.

[Red@8]

Hopefully it keeps dropping - but who knows the night is still young.

[SilverRex]

so far so good, Natgas is retracing back to perhaps test a few important support. right now flerting at 4.69, key is if this breakout is real, it should not break below 4.51-4.55

I will attampt to go long again with stops below that

USD is currently retracing perhaps into a sub 4 of .iii which should not be significant.

which means the market will rally a bit, but it should be corrective, once USD resume upwards, the market will resume its original decline.

edit: Natgas still looking bullish, quite an impressive rally off 4.66, perhaps that is as low as it gets as it appears it wants to punch a new high and finish its sub 5 wave of (.iii) above 5.0, if that is the case we wont see a larger correction until it makes a new high.

re-entered 1 small position to see how she goes, still looking for a mid 4 entry but will have to wait

[cosmok]

After that retracement on the USD/CAD pair it looks like we'll see a nice bounce shortly. The BoC comments could swing things the other way though

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cosmok
After that retracement on the USD/CAD pair it looks like we'll see a nice bounce shortly. The BoC comments could swing things the other way though

very nice rejection bar on usd/cad, correction may now be completed.

[SilverRex]

as mention eariler, dollar looks to be ready for one more thrust higher before a larger correction takes place, for day traders you can attampt to buy the current dip but for the conservative, might want to wait for price to retrace near 87.45 before taking a stronger position

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar060710.jpg

[SilverRex]

exited hnu, took a small profit, the move up this morning looks exhusting, feels like a correction, going to sit back and wait for a larger retracement

usd/cad headed lower again, surprised yes, but the entire down leg this week continues to look very corrective, I see usd/cad finding some sort of landing between 1.048-1.051 then off she goes,

euro/usd looking for a big of a higher high for a divergence imo

update: oil at 72 is starting to struggle to provide the resistance it needs to push oil lower, the chance that my alt count that our wave iv correction up to 76-78 instead may slowly increase, I'll stick with that if oil on the 1 hour chart can close above 72, I'll expect oil to push further head before it does fall.

Caution for those already in a short position.

[Commanderwiggin]

Seems like oil is holding above 72...barely

[s_havinga]

I need to pick up some USD for my trip to Vegas this weekend. Do you think that it is worth holding out until thursday or friday or should I just pick it up whenever is convenient?

[cosmok]

Originally posted by s_havinga
I need to pick up some USD for my trip to Vegas this weekend. Do you think that it is worth holding out until thursday or friday or should I just pick it up whenever is convenient?
In all honesty earlier today would have been best. I'm down there Friday and was debating the same thing, but unless you're converting 100k does 1% really matter? Watch the 1.0625-1.0630 area, if it's taken out with conviction we may be on our way back to 1.07+.

[sgouki]

What do you guys think about HNU for tomorrow/later today? It seems to want to keep going up. I'm scared that once I put my money in, it's just gonna drop.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by sgouki
What do you guys think about HNU for tomorrow/later today? It seems to want to keep going up. I'm scared that once I put my money in, it's just gonna drop.

EOG has put drilling on hold in PA. This could be bullish for gas.

[SilverRex]

ok gold made a new high today and as such I have to say our bullish green path continues to be intact.

now the view is that 1226 must hold and we shall see a move towards 1270-1280 initially then onto 1350

if 1226 is broken then we are back to neutral perhaps a barrier wedge triangle formation happening

definately very exciting for gold bulls

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold060810.jpg

[SilverRex]

here is an interesting thought, while silver tends to outperform gold 2:1 during strong rallies.

it also takes a huge setback during major corrections. So the trick would be, determine when the next major correction takes place play silver to the upside once it is falling heavily relative to gold.

as an example, lets just say if gold does jump towards 1280 and complete is sub .v of (iii), the next correction could take a month just like it between feb 22-march 25 when it produced a wave (ii) correction. it would be the play to ride silver at the end of this multi week correction because I have a feeling as the market becomes more volatile and illiquid, silver could take a huge beat down. if Cyclist's suggestion that we could see gold/silver ration back to 100:1 that means silver has the ability to dive all the way to the 12s

that is why, always keep your powder dry, if we see mid 12s silver, you know what that means.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silverweekly.jpg

[max_boost]

Good call SR. Nat gas down today! haha

Thoughts on this link? broken_legs scares me:


Originally posted by broken_legs
.PDF - BMO - Says GO TO CASH (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Go%20To%20Cash.pdf)

.PDF - BMO - GO TO CASH FACTs (http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/Go_To_Cash_Fact_and_Fiction.pdf)

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by max_boost
Good call SR. Nat gas down today! haha

Thoughts on this link? broken_legs scares me:



All I do is post opinions of far greater minds than my own.

I just went long - August calls on oilfield service

RIG and SLB

I'll get back on the NAT GAS train here soon too.

Europe is literally crumbling right now...

THe saving grace is, they are doing 'Stress' Tests on the banks in Europe right now. Its the same farce they tried on the US banks after everyone figured out they are insolvent.

If this goes well then We might start another bull run, but eventually its all going to puke. Puking = long term.

[SilverRex]

let see usd/cad has corrected as much as it needs too, anything lower (below 1.045) would begin to seriously hurt the bullish view

hopfully this is where the dollar makes one more mini move to a new high before a larger correction takes place.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/cad060810.jpg

[max_boost]

Originally posted by broken_legs


All I do is post opinions of far greater minds than my own.

I just went long - August calls on oilfield service

RIG and SLB

I'll get back on the NAT GAS train here soon too.

Europe is literally crumbling right now...

THe saving grace is, they are doing 'Stress' Tests on the banks in Europe right now. Its the same farce they tried on the US banks after everyone figured out they are insolvent.

If this goes well then We might start another bull run, but eventually its all going to puke. Puking = long term.

No it's all good. Need some views from the other side.

I hope real estate prices don't crumble or 20% or whatever. That sucks. lol No different than watching a stock go up and not selling haha