Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

while natgas has dropped down and made a lower low, what could now happen based on a bullish count is that we may have just completed a wave iv correction and ready for one more wave above 8.5 on ung.

I am going to go long on 1 small position with stops below today's low and see if this is how it will unfold.

if today's low is taken out, most likely I will wait for the next two major support around 7.5-7.79 to take another shot at this rally.

and of course I have mention from previous post that if 7.5 breaks, then this entire structure will be in question and it may signal we may see a lower nat gas price.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung060810.jpg

[SilverRex]

my guess is if natgas and over take 5 dollars, the next major overhead resistance will be around 5.55 since taking this out will signal a huge trend reversal on the higher time frame, that will turn the majority technical traders into jumping in hands over feet, of course I dont think we will see it break on first try, some still expect we havent see the low yet.

so if I got this count right, then I'll be looking to exit when NG gets close to mid 5s

[cosmok]

Originally posted by max_boost
No different than watching a stock go up and not selling haha

Welcome to my nightmare

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost



I hope real estate prices don't crumble or 20% or whatever. That sucks. lol No different than watching a stock go up and not selling haha

im no expert in real estate, but cycle suggest real estate to bottom at the end of June in the US. what ever that means for us

[SilverRex]

ok gold is begining to test some key support, while gold made new high this week to about 1252, it hadnt made high enough to qualify the latest fun off 1197 as a sub iii, therefore in order for the bullish momentum to remain, it now must hold its ground above 1226-1228, I believe if this level does not hold, then gold will most likely be back to the sideways or triangle consolidation pattern as I posted in the weekend. Its everyone's guess where that support lies, I would say the next swing pt support low may fall some where between 1170-1190. This is more realistic playout anyways.

and to say this one last time, the bearish case would be 1167 taking out that would open 1000 gold imo. but for now i'll stick with the a summer consolidation unless it can break above 1250 and turn it into support.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold060910.jpg

[SilverRex]

lets go over the dollar index, while the latest breakout from the barrier wedge gave us new highs, looking at the daily chart here, we have to keep in mind, there is a potential our wave III advance may be completed. while the lower time frame suggest we should see further extension to newer highs, to have this remain on the table dollar must hold turn 87.45 into support I'd say a break below 87.25 as previously suggested would turn it bearish in the short term, if that is the case, then we will be onto a wave iv correction that points to at least 85 as a bare minimum.

I do expect a bounce off 87.45 regardless of overall direction, but will watch this closely, a strong decline below this would trigger a stock market rally imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar060910.jpg

[SilverRex]

for oil, last time while expecting the decline to resume after a poor closing of the DOW on friday, I mention the important of the previous support between 71.6-72, I mention if it closes above this on the hourly chart, it will throw off the bearish view.

well since closing above 72, it has brought oil back to neutral, what I mean is it can now go both ways. looking at the chart below, we have to scenario unfolding, it appears ready to retest a neckline that has held oil down since late May, closing above this which would be around 74 would open up to 78 oil quite quickly, but pending if the dollar index I posted eariler is ready for a correction of significance or not, oil may still be struggling.

I would wait for confirmation above 74 before going for a long swing trade. for short, 10/20 EMA is bullish, I'll wait for price to close below 72 along with the 10/20 EMA opening down before doing that. with Stoch overbought, chances may be good that there may not be a breakout just yet (meaning price will be contained between 71-74 range bound for a day or two.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil060910.jpg

[SilverRex]

with oil taking above 74 I now expect higher oil soon, but right now its way oversold, look for oil to pull back abit before moving higher again

there is another neckline just under 75 holding it in,

perhaps a good place to go long near 72.50 oil

gold has broken down below 1226 which suggest it has terminated the immediate green bullish path.

now I expect gold to fully be into a consolidation mode

the dollar is near a critical support area and I expect a bounce soon

UNG: im going to give myself a stop loss below 8.00, before believing a larger correction is underway. still expect it to consolidate here 8.00-8.30 then breakout

[tryingtobebest1]

Hey sr, HNU falls since monday but $natgas is still pretty much holding its level! Hows that work?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
Hey sr, HNU falls since monday but $natgas is still pretty much holding its level! Hows that work?

I believe it has to do with the fact that etf's rebalances its position daily, the contango and difference in price between each month's contract also plays a factor.

in a nut shell, if you hold hnu and natgas moves sidways indefinately, you will lose your money to an eventual zero.

I believe hnu is good for strong breakout trades, if you want to be safe, invest in NG stocks instead with dividends.

the energy sectors may look attractive near the end of the month

[SilverRex]

usd/cad took out the 1.045 area, suggest count may now have changed from bullish to bearish.

dollar index may have one last bounce then correct meaning Euro may be ready for an advance.

That wont bold well for usd/cad

[broken_legs]

SLB is breaking out today.

RIG is on the move.

Hopefully with oil moving up we can get a nice rebound in these stocks. Maybe some BS news about drilling resuming or good news from the gulf will allow a nice rebound.


Weekly chart on rig looks super interesting, looks like it could get support of a LONG trend line from 20$

[nobb]

This is my first time trading so Im still a newbie at this. I just opened up a Questrade account and put $10k into HOU at ~$6 mostly as an impulse buy since the price was so low.

HOU appears to be going up dramatically now...how would you guys best evaluate what a good exit point is? Judging by historical trends, Im perhaps going to wait for HOU to hit close to $10.

[kaput]

.

[Red@8]

Originally posted by kaput
^You're in WAY over your head, sell now while is up, consider yourself lucky, and learn more about what HOU is and how it works before trying again.


:werd:

[SilverRex]

ung has falling below 8.00, scaling back my postion but will hold a little, waiting to add more back at 7.80
edit: of course unless ung can climb and re-close above 8.10, then we might just have a case to end the correction

edit: hnu looking for a good pickup to re-enter all my NG longs between 6.15-6.35

[SilverRex]

get ready for a drop tomorrow for the DOW and or until friday, then we should see a rally afterwards.

[Commanderwiggin]

Mmm...made a nice and easy 10% on Hou from friday to today hopefully now we see that drop.

[nobb]

Originally posted by kaput
^You're in WAY over your head, sell now while is up, consider yourself lucky, and learn more about what HOU is and how it works before trying again.

Care to quickly explain?

[kaput]

.

[nobb]

No offence to SR but I dont understand the terminology enough to know what he is saying half the time lol. I understand the concept of leveraging and why in theory the share will become worthless for long term, but it seems that historically HOU has been bouncing between $6 and $10 almost consistently. Doesnt quite make sense to me why that is.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

It's simple, if you think oil price is going to go up, don't sell HOU.

If you are willing to risk $10K without doing your homework, then so be it. You'll learn faster when you lose money. At least that's what happened to me :rofl:

[Commanderwiggin]

So what investment courses have you guys taken? Wouldn't mind taking a few more myself.

[sgouki]

Originally posted by Commanderwiggin
So what investment courses have you guys taken? Wouldn't mind taking a few more myself.
That and maybe some websites/message boards where you guys draw your information on the course of gas/oil/gold etc. Like what informs you of what a good stock would be. I'm sure nobody just picks randomly. Like I'm drawing ideas off you guys here but where do you guys get the idea and information from?

[SilverRex]

ok the dollar while initially rally off 87.45, has falling back to a even more critical support at 87.25

this are MUST hold if dollar is to make one final gasp to a higher high before we face a larger correction.

so far there is positive divergence to price on the STOCH which could suggest the level should hold.

my bet is we will, but the flip side is, a break below this will certainly force much lower dollar.

so as long as 87.25 holds, buy the dips for a push higher if not retest the recent highs, but if it breaks, sell the rallies to an initial 85 for starters.

also if we a minor dip in oil depends on it as well. otherwise a weak dollar will spark a major oil rally

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061010.jpg

[SilverRex]

the initial thought that usd/cad would get as high as 1.1-1.12 might be off the table, since it is unable to sustain every rally but continuely testing and breaking down supports.

this morning it is right back at a critical neckline, I expect price to begin rallying off this area, but unless it can make a strong move without being corrective in nature, first by taking out the declining trendline and turn every swing pt top into support, I'll say it is getting to the point where the entire structure may be a larger ABC correction with price could break down below par once again.

it would be much easy to trade off the dollar index (or euro) than this pair at the moment. I would look for swing trades only

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/cad061010-1.jpg

[SilverRex]

oil continues to flert around 75, with negative divergence showing up and potentially completed a mini 5 waves up off 71, I am expecting a pull back towards 72.50 before the real breakout

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061010-1.jpg

[Meback]

Nobb I can assure you that if you hang on to hou.to it will see 10 dollars. The question is can you stomach seeing a 20-30% (which is quivalent to thousands) loss on your profile before you see it hit that point and weather or not your discipline enough to ride the wave up and down and not sell it until it hits 10.

I normally take profit when I see it and will never sell for a loss on hou. Most of my plays have been HOU and HOD and I have been doing quite well.

[SilverRex]

UNG ready to open near an important resistance, if we can climb or close above 8.10, might be an early signal that our correction in natgas is over

[nobb]

Originally posted by Meback
...The question is can you stomach seeing a 20-30% (which is quivalent to thousands) loss on your profile before you see it hit that point and weather or not your discipline enough to ride the wave up and down and not sell it until it hits 10.
...

See this is the part that I still dont think I quite understand. HOU appears to be at the trough right now...how would you expect to see a 20-30% loss? I bought HOU at $6 so it would have to drop to $4.2 for me to see that loss. Or is there something fundamentally wrong in my thinking?

With a leverage ETF you would expect it to in theory always be dropping over time...but you dont quite see that in HOU.

Anyways fk it...I dont think I understand this well enough. Ill just sell off HOU while it's still profitable. Is there a good "fantasy" investing tool that takes into account commissions and ECN fees to simulate what an actual long term investment in HOU will be like?

[SilverRex]

dollar index
euro

all testing a very important level, its make or break right now

[Meback]

Originally posted by nobb


See this is the part that I still dont think I quite understand. HOU appears to be at the trough right now...how would you expect to see a 20-30% loss? I bought HOU at $6 so it would have to drop to $4.2 for me to see that loss. Or is there something fundamentally wrong in my thinking?


You bought in at a good time, ur not always gonna have that luxury.

[SilverRex]

looking at ung this morning, its right near the 8.10, if we close above this, I would attampt to go long on natgas

but until then, we are not out of the woods and with the gap lefted at the open, one can only believe it has to be filled somehow.

the gap lefted just under 8.40 may just tells me we will visit that level again

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung061010.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by nobb


See this is the part that I still dont think I quite understand. HOU appears to be at the trough right now...how would you expect to see a 20-30% loss? I bought HOU at $6 so it would have to drop to $4.2 for me to see that loss. Or is there something fundamentally wrong in my thinking?

With a leverage ETF you would expect it to in theory always be dropping over time...but you dont quite see that in HOU.

Anyways fk it...I dont think I understand this well enough. Ill just sell off HOU while it's still profitable. Is there a good "fantasy" investing tool that takes into account commissions and ECN fees to simulate what an actual long term investment in HOU will be like?

while oil can be quite volatile in the coming months, I say if it holds it ground right towards the end of june I'll hold it until august, expecting a good rally coming up soon once oil finds a bottom

[SilverRex]

NG inventory out in a few mins,

let see how she goes

price is falling

looking to pick up near important support.

come on its a negative report, give me my number :D

edit: hmm its recovering strongly, might jump back in with both feet if UNG crosses 8.11

update: lock and loaded, re-enter all position for next wave up

[SilverRex]

UNG rallied off the 10EMA which means our bullish outlook remains in tact, if that was the low this morning, the break above 8.11 should enable us for the next move towards 9

pmt is also slowly breaking out

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung061010c.jpg

[SilverRex]

oil: didnt expect it to break higher to 76, however if it does not turn 75.5 into support, watch out below

ung: while it made quite the rise, but it has also falling sharply, for the moment I take this as a retest that could strech down towards 7.95, you can either use today's low as stop

however its just awe too close to our 7.79 support, might be worth the risk to hang in there.

[Proyecto2000]

hey Max_boost, for old time sakes I was thinking of jumping back into HOU. Do you still play with the Horizon ETFs?

[max_boost]

Yeah I still buy Horizons stuff but it's HXU and HSU for quick flips.

No I don't want to get into HOU/HOD/HNU/HND ever again. That's a flame I don't want to reignite, EVER. I value my sanity, my sleep and my money. :rofl:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[max_boost]

Those are TSX and SP500 double haha but I can't stomach the psychotic nature of oil and gas leverages. It's like driving a Ferrari when you really can't afford to or going out with a crazy bitch, you justify it all you want in the beginning but after awhile, you can't take it. Yeah.....something like that lol :rofl:

[mr2mike]

Ok something to look at is SU on the usa side.
I've notice it's broken through it's ceiling resistance. New highs up to $34? I'm hoping.
Just signalling for people to look at it. It may pull back to resistance tomorrow and could be a buy.

[SilverRex]

as posted before, on natgas, looking at UNG, while a wild day, did not quite get the strong lift I expect but it does show signs it is trying to bottom out around current area, it touched off as low as 7.89 (remember our major support lies 7.79 and most importantly at 7.50) with price still showing support off the 10EMA, my view remains the same that once the correction ends we will find out way to a new high. looking at the 200day SMA between 9-9.25 as a good spot for the next major correction to take hold.

if your looking at natgas price instead, the lowest it got I believe was 4.65 with 4.50-4.55 as our make or break support. so we are definately close to a bottom if yesterday wasnt it.

hang tight, if natgas is to put in a cycle top towards the end of winter 2011, we have plenty of upside here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung061110.jpg

[SilverRex]

so the dollar index broken down our major support at 87.25 and with that in technical terms have ended the dollar's rise in the short term. With stoch oversold on the 1hr, 2hr and 4hr, I expect price to make a countertrend rally (which is corrective) before heading much lower.

this will no doubt spark abit of a small rally in the market place including dow/s&p, oil

so for dollar longs, it may be time to sit on the side lines and wait for a much lower entry or exit on the next rise

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061110.jpg

[SilverRex]

Not much to comment on gold beside the fact that (similar to the dollar index) it broke down below its own critical support between 1226-1228 and terminated its bullish move in the short term.

so the expect scenario I see right now is a side ways or trinagle wedge over the summer. with over sold conditions, and a sharp trend line break this morning, we should see a counter trend rally as well before the next sell off begins, I do believe our top at 1252 will not be broken for some time.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061110.jpg

[SilverRex]

and last by not least, was expecting oil to come back down towards the 72.50 area for the next major rally, however thanks to the surge in dow it has lifted oil to a breakout which was not expected, you can see price struggled to rally off the retest of the breakout, I suggested that if it does not turn 75.5 into support, then watch out below and so far with a negative divergence eariler, it has since made lower lows, a bullish path will put oil continue to fight off the two trendlines but my view remains still waiting for oil to dip back into the 72-73 areas for a day or two, then I expect another 5-7 dollar rise before the next drop shows up

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061110.jpg

[SilverRex]

pmt-un.to is slowly breaking out

update: UNG looking ready to move higher, natgas tested yesterday's high at 4.80, also ready to move higher.

we are looking good to close the week on the upside, technically will attract more investors next week imo
update: unbelievable, just doesnt want to breakout above 4.80 just yet. and so the wait continues

my only explination is probably the gap it wants to fill, ung near 8 dollars.

[SilverRex]

it appears ung has filled the gap near 8 dollars, now with a late day surge, let see if we can get a reverse H&S breakout the next time we cross over 8.19 should be it, and if the run is real, it must turn 8.19 into support

update:thats 3 knocks at the high today, let the door open :D

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ungupdate.jpg

[SilverRex]

let see what this week has instore for us. the mini counter trend rally that I expect the dollar to make didnt last very long, it was only a matter of time until it continued on lower, and so it has, current make or break I'll put it at 88, as long as no sudden reverse of fortune happens, we can continue to expect a lower low for the dollar. my expecation is to sell on the rallies, with the gap that might be filled at the begining of this week, this could either be filled quickly here then a reverse to the down side, or it may be filled when this entire correction is finish (assuming we are indeed into a larger wave correction)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061410.jpg

gold did a little better, the counter rally suggested from my last post at least made it to near 1235, again it turned around. While it is possible it can still make for a higher price, look for price to break the current neckline that will lead to lower prices, but as long as this neckline continues to hold gold up, alot of gold bull will not jump off the ship just yet, which means, until this neckline is broken, the selloffs wont be as strong

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061410.jpg

and finally for oil, recalling late last week that with the latest surge to 76, I said if it did not turn 75.5 into support, we will be looking for a retracement, and so we got our retracement as low as 73.2 about. the previous breakout trendline appears to be holding oil up. We did not see the 72.5 target, but it was close. with its own gap that needed to be filled this week, current view suggest a quick dip then onto higher oil, a worse case scenario would be seen in red, right now I do not see oil any lower than 72-72.50, an immediate bullish tone would be setup if oil suddenly launches upward, if that is the case I fully expect 75.5-76 to become a solid support to push oil back to 78 area as a initiate target.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061410.jpg

[SilverRex]

as mention last week, the closing of UNG (natgas) above 8.10 which is our 20EMA on the weekly chart is a very healthy signs that we should see some further upside this week. with Natgas hovering at the 4.91 area as well as UNG in the 8.30 premarket, its definately looking up,

Current view remains for ung to hit in the 9+, I'll expect a deeper retracement to take hold once we get there

one key item is that to maintain our bullish momentum, once price breaks above 8.50, it MUST turn it into support, if it does not and begins falling down, then it would signal either a more drawned out correction back downtowards 8.00 or even 7.80, hopefully that is not the case.

make or break remains at about 7.50 to keep this uptrend intact, the further we move away from this the higher chance that our yearly low of Natgas will be set.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung061410.jpg

[SilverRex]

also agriculture will be a good play this year, cycle count from my source suggest it to move up from here until august. It wont just be the energy sector that will be decouple from the main market eventually, but the food shortage will also be magnified.

looking at HAU.to which is 2x ETF on the agri sector, it bounced off a few pts off the 52week low of 14.28 since the dive in 2008, looks like we are in the early stage of a trend reversal here as well, once price closes above the 20 EMA above 14.46 we should be buying the dips for a chance it can recover into the 17s, individual stocks like POT, SEED, AGU, BXI, VT appears to be the plays from other forums suggestin similar outlook

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/hau061410.jpg

[Red@8]

Good call on ung/ng SR!

Good day so far.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Red@8
Good call on ung/ng SR!

Good day so far.

yes NG looking very bullish, after the reverse H&S breakout last week, everything is moving exactly to what a strong uptrend should be.

we are currently in a sub iii of (i) of [I] imo, if things continue to move the way it should, we wont hit a larger correction after a breakout above 5.00 when completes sub v of (i) which then the correction could be returning the 5 dollars for a retest.

that is the bullish case.

but on the lower level, not too happy to see the gap still around 8.20, lefted unfilled. we'll see what happens.

[SilverRex]

ok a quick look at ung, still unable to break above 8.50, bullish case is to break and turn that into support, my own view is for a small correctional wave iv then launch, a worse case is the gap near 8.20 to be filled for a sharp decline, stabalized then pop

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung0614b.jpg

[SilverRex]

alert, euro just touched an important number at 1.2300, we could see a counter trend rally in the dollar begin

[broken_legs]

Options expiration week.

Everyone bought puts. If you bought calls last Wed-Thurs-Friday You will be enjoying the next 4 trading days :)

[SilverRex]

fantastic close on natgas today. Will begin to look for profit taking when ung gets near or above 9

[SilverRex]

Tuesday:

Natgas looking very strong for an opening as of 5:40am, lets hope it continues to hold for a great start.

its now at 5.12 with UNG asking at 8.72, if we do get a strong gap opening, consider the 5 dollar area to be filled eventually, because that would suggest 5 dollars to be a sub wave iii top, which general will be retested when our wave v is completed. That will offer us a initial entry point once NG seeks out its final v (iii) of I top. if hnu.to is too risky for you, then scale into pmt-un.to, when NG rises, they will raise their dividend as well which is already at 12%

Agricultural stocks or index would be going strong till august. May be looking for a bottom this week as well, HAU, AGU, SEEN, BXI, POT, VT etc

looking for oil to bottom this week so any significant pull back is a buy. the energy sector or stocks will be the ones to look at too this week

gold should make a low this week, then trade sidways or treading lower before finding a cycle bottom in august. Gold stock should be picked up in august, not now

in summary, energy/food is the place to be right now, gold/goldshares in august


update: NG touched 5.15 very strong so far

[SilverRex]

so far oil remains within my view that we will soon see a breakout, what we might have this morning is a wave iv consolidation, if we break above 76, that should turn into support, but a typical wave iv correction in this pattern usually suggest an ABCDE wave count before breaking out (just like the dollar index did last week)

so either we have one more minor dip then a breakout should happen shortly after

make or break for this rally will now be at 72.50 will consider a bearish tone to creep in if that is broken to the down side

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061510.jpg

[SilverRex]

wowzer, Natgas touched off 5.169

[SilverRex]

sold 30% hnu.to

based on wave counts, natgas is looking for a top then a correction will take place., for those still looking in from the outside, best to wait for the correction to unfold and see what type of pattern we see

[SilverRex]

for the last little while, natgas seems to pickup steam mid to late day, let see if that is the case here for another surge higher. will be looking to cash out another position on the next surge.

[SilverRex]

ung is looking for atop and when it does we may be face with a larger correction, there is now multiple gaps that might need to be filled and that concerns me at 8.20 as well as 8.60, I'll imagine once a top is inplace, those are may be revisited and a good stop for re-entry.

right now it appears ung is forming a wedge between 8.65-8.73, this pattern should be a continuational pattern with a breakout to a higher high. If the neckline breaks lower, then chances are good we will see yesterday's close

I'll be looking to begin taking profit off the table, especially if a breakout is to occur, then wait for a larger pull back with orders near the above target

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ungwedge.jpg

[SilverRex]

my current view, as long as today's low isnt broken, still expecting a higher high, but the two gaps left below is a concern but could offer a clue as to where the next correction might land.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung061510.jpg

[SilverRex]

pmt-un.to is breaking out solidly as well
natgas ready to test if not break the high set this morning at 5.169

update: natgas broke past today's high

sold another 30%

[SilverRex]

now that we have our breakout, natgas have fulfilled a minimum count of the 5 waves up for this wave iii of (i) leg,

while 10/20 EMA remains up, stoch is showing possible negative divergence, cant rule out further upside with momentum pushing it higher by another few percent, after all my target for UNG was to achieve the 9s,

I have scaled down my position and taken 60% off the table. I feel we are at A top if not close to one. And will be expecting a correction back down for re-entry.

[SilverRex]

as mentioned from last post, I am feeling the overbought conditions, and the fact we are about to complete our wave v of (iii) suggest we are near a top if not at one. My core position is now down to 30% as I will attampt to ride it abit higher. It is possible we can turn at any time.

current view is that I will expect a pull back similar to the .91 drop off wave (i), and will be looking to re-entry all my position between 8-8.50

this correction may take more than a few days to unfold,

make or break remains at 7.79 for UNG and 4.55 for NG, will continue to look to buy on the significant dips so long the above isnt broken

update: pmt-un.to late day surge now near 5.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung061510b.jpg

[broken_legs]

Up 50% on SLB Aug 55 Calls. Looking for SLB to break above 61 - They got hammered on news of the gulf being shut down, but now that things are supposed to get going I think the negativity will fade and allow for a little run.

Doubled down on RIG Aug 55s... This is more of a gamble, but liking the way it looks.

[sgouki]

As always SR, your input is so much appreciated. Wasn't able to make it back in time to sell my positions on HNU, so hopefully I won't see a big red tomorrow morning.
In the mean while, since you pulled 60% out, what are you putting that into? Or are you just letting it sit and waiting for a re-entry point.

[SilverRex]

well so far nat gas has cooled down abit this morning, we'll see if its simply just a breather than higher highs or the correctional wave (iv) begins.

my target for re-entry for ung will be between 8-8.50

[SilverRex]

for gold this morning, it has inched a bit higher since my last post about the possibility of rallying off the neckline, and so far so good. But it is looking a little corrective and so my bias remains we will eventually see this neckline broken to the downside

but as long as this neckline isnt broken, the longer it stays above it, it will begin to garner more bullish strength, it still has a slight possibility that it can breakout above 1252, but any breakout will be short lived as I'll only see no higher than of 1270-80

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061610.jpg

[SilverRex]

as mentioned before, every since dollar broken down our critical support at 87.25, the bearish view remains intact, and so the dollar continues to head lower and lower. but with the oversold conditions now appearing on most charts, I am beginning to consider a counter trend rally backup, the gap lefted just under 87.27 may be a prime spot target for a good retracement rally

so if your shorting the dollar, it may be best to wait a bit or you can take a chance on a swing day trade going strengh on the dollar or anything that plays against it such as oil/gold typically.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061610.jpg

[SilverRex]

finally on oil, after breaking abveo 76, we certainly got momentum towards 78, while not quite the rally I expect but the direction was bang on. it had also completed a 5 wave pattern off 69.50 which now suggest on the daily degree that we are at a very important juncture.

many bearish takers will see the current level as a place to go short as we are still struggling to over come the previous broken neckline that goes back to 60 oil

the structure shown here looks like we have an impulsive drop, and the recent rally looks corrective that may be an ABC wave correction that could trigger another down leg of sell off to at least 67

while oil will sooner or later decouple from the main market, the fact the dollar may strength short term will not help oil either.

my take is that if oil cannot hold its head above 75.5-76, then be cautious, especially a break below 73 could ignite a retest of the low

Cyclist is calling for a low this week so let see if we will get that low once and for all and out of the way, then we can talk about going long for months

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061610.jpg

[SilverRex]

in case you skipped the post in the other thread, pmt-un.to which follows Natgas has a great risk/reward and can reach as high as 10 dollar at the end of summer. continues to be my recommendation for those who are afraid of the volatile etf

although I have managed to jump start my TFSA this year by 50% thanks to hnu.to

I dont know if I can keep this gain up, but will try, last year wasnt as great

Just remember, the market is still uncertain, stick with the strong markets and stayaway from the weak ones. Energy/food vs Banks

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Hey SR, how exactly does pmt work?

You say $10 by the end of summer? thats almost 100% return

im purely a technical trader, but from some of other investor's thought on pmt

here is the exact quote

"The question asked in many emails is where to go with NG.My preference is
PMT.un ,they got the landbase and the diversification in gas storage.In addition management have a major stake in the company and always have
served their stockholders well in paying out a healthy return on the profits
made.The dividends will rise when gas prices rise.
Natural gas prices are now the fuel to watch and with a cold winter in the Northern hemisphere being forecast,it will make this asset class sing."

again I have been hammering the idea that based on cycles, Natgas is going to embark on a milti month rally all the way to 2011, heavy NG bulls are looking for NG to hit 10 dollar early next year and possibly 15 by winter 2011, any natgas related stocks would rocket as a result.

I think husky energy would be a strong play off 24 dollars as well.

[SilverRex]

Natgas is falling as I hopped and expected, UNG support at 8.65 failed, so far so good.

next support 8.50

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

for those following PMT

look at the chart below, we have a breakout, yes, but count suggest is one step behind natgas/ung

while natgas/ung may have completed a nearterm top, pmt remains in a sub dividing wave (iii) so the current pull back will be small, then off she goes

it would be a great entry to get back in near 5.15 but with the bullish breakout, we may or may not see such a level, unless Natgas prices crashes, we might be hardpressed that 5 dollars or below may be gone for ever. Also if we are to get a correction back down to 5.15, pmt must stay below 5.65, the next time we break 5.65 may turn that into a multi month support which suggest our next rise once this mini correction is finished should be onto 5.65 and no higher

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/pmt061610b.jpg

[SilverRex]

wolly molly, Natgas is falling fast, we are a hair away from the 8.50 UNG and 5.01 Natgas

I expect a bounce here,

man, I wish trading was this easy, but its not. Enjoy it while it last I say,

my own target is to re-enter at 8.2x for UNG, but 8.50 is tempeting :/

[tryingtobebest1]

OMG sr, do you know how long i was waiting to post a 1000, aniversary post in this thread and thank you in it for being here for us! LOL Even tho that i mostly don't understand your discriptions but i know for shure that they helping me make some money!! Thank you!)))

Anywhay i was late yesterday and didn't get out from hnu, will it fall very bad?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
OMG sr, do you know how long i was waiting to post a 1000, aniversary post in this thread and thank you in it for being here for us! LOL Even tho that i mostly don't understand your discriptions but i know for shure that they helping me make some money!! Thank you!)))

Anywhay i was late yesterday and didn't get out from hnu, will it fall very bad?

my guess is we should be bottoming around current area, natgas hit as low as 5.027 so far, ung at 8.55 which has completely filled the 1st gap I mention a day ago

it may make another dive towards 5.01, but I am expecting a rally. I have all my orders in place if it shall defy me and continue on down, now a wide gap lefted in the opposit direction just under 8.8 for ung may be a good swing pt high then nose dive towards low 8s

im just going with the feeling here, in a nut shell I am expecting a larger correction, however if 5.01 holds, there is always a slight chance it can suddenly rally back to recent highs for a divergence imo, I am going to be patient with this one.

update: NG at 5.01 not holding, next support to look at 4.8x

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by broken_legs
Up 50% on SLB Aug 55 Calls. Looking for SLB to break above 61 - They got hammered on news of the gulf being shut down, but now that things are supposed to get going I think the negativity will fade and allow for a little run.

Doubled down on RIG Aug 55s... This is more of a gamble, but liking the way it looks.

Sell order executed on SLB 55 Calls this morning @ $7.00 (bought at 4.00 even)

Net position on RIG is slightly green. Still looking at the gap around 55 to fill sometime soon.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Hey SR, so oil is very close to $78 for July. Do you see it going any higher till the end of the week?

Today was interesting. started off in red, and now up $.74

well I said as long as 75.5-76 holds together, we will see higher oil and so far so good.

the only problem is, it appears I have counted a 5 waves off 69.50 and the last wave was extended.

So if the market suddenly rolls over (dollar gains strength) then oil may still have one more drive down,

otherwise, stick to same support at 75.5, as long as this isnt broken to the downside, oil will continue to push higher and higher.

[SilverRex]

ok end of day, Natgas stuck around 5.00 and UNG at around 8.49

now so far my expecation for a larger correction is taking shape nicely. I was suprised yesterday's call that a negative divergence on stoch showed up was indeed a warning bell that preceded today's move.

looking at the current chart ung has managed to close a hair above the previous wave iii top. While it broke down just by a penny, I would say it has not really broken down yet.

In order for my steeper retracement to unfold, this area must be taking down, what I realize is that I missed a sharp uptick during last thursday
action, and with this bar, I am incline to suggest the current move off 7.90 to 8.84 may only be a sub dividing .iii of v of (iii) of [i], confusing? of course. what I am really saying is, before I thought our 5 waves up for a wave iii top was complete, but instead we may still have one more leg up to complete the same count.

So, instead of throwing a 100% bearish view, I will add this. So long as we do not break down below today's low of UNG at 8.46, Natgas might still have one more shot at moving back up towards 8.8-9.2,

but if 8.46 does not hold or we rise a little then turn lower and break down tomorrow, then this view is off the table, and we are back to my original correction targeting the 8-8.20

Tomorrow's inventory report will again be a good kicker.

8.48 also happens to be the 38.2% retracement support off the recent rally between 7.9-8.84 a good area to rebound if my count is correct.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung0616d.jpg
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung0616c.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Natgas is looking pretty good this morning,

with the inventory report, we will see if that will give us A top for reversal or a bottom for re-entry.

Still holding out my last position for a potential wave v top out between ung 8.8-9.3 to exit or natgas between 5.2-5.5

and orders at 8.0 and 8.2 incase the report gives us a much needed sell off.

Gold appears to be walking the bullish green path, a sharp ascending triangle breakout? I wont give it too much credit, even a break out imo will be limited and could quickly spark a sell off, most likely we will wont see any dramatic surge in gold until end of august

and for oil, battle between 76 and 78, which ever way it cracks first should give us the next short term direction.

[SilverRex]

while gold appears ready for a breakout,

looking at silver, maybe we have a better idea

looking at the recent run up, silver just broke out of its own triangle pattern which is bullish yes, but since the way it falls right after a bottom, suggest this may still be corrective. A triangle pattern usually forms in the wave iii/iv correction or in an ABC correction as well. no doubt I'll be betting the top side will be limited once the A top is reached.

looking at silver based on the last run up, we can project price no higher than 19.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver061710.jpg

[SilverRex]

while the NG inventory report was nothing ground breaking, the direction of UNG/Natgas is treading lower and and a break of 5.01 again would resume my initial correctional path down to 8-8.2 for UNG

I have exited all my positions and will be looking to re-add lower

[nobb]

Just entered HND at 5.20 this morning in anticipation of NG going down. Would the slight increase of available NG reserves (87bcf) this week be enough to cause natural gas prices to drop or are there more significant factors involved here?

HND appeared to shoot up right after the NG reserves were made available this morning. Just curious.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by nobb
Just entered HND at 5.20 this morning in anticipation of NG going down. Would the slight increase of available NG reserves (87bcf) this week be enough to cause natural gas prices to drop or are there more significant factors involved here?

HND appeared to shoot up right after the NG reserves were made available this morning. Just curious.

so far natgas rebounded strongly after testing yesterday's low, however I will wait this one out, any upside will be limited. I am still going to wait for a lower re-entry

we'll give it a few days to see how the pattern plays out, we'll know more once it shows its hands technically speaking.

[SilverRex]

ung is right back up towards the end of the day, it did not break yesterday's low, unfortunately, now bullish momentum continues to favor another breakout

the current chart looks like another triangle breakout, the bullish move would be a breakout tomorrow retest then launch higher. Could we finally see the 9-9.30s I've been calling for all this time? It would make pefect sense for a top

my own view would have price come back towards 8.60 to complete the ABCDE correction before breaking out higher.

My eyes are still set for a break down below 8.47 looks like I'll have to wait a bit.

This movement may signal pmt ready to hit higher onto 5.65 before hits up leg takes a breather.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung061710b.jpg

[SilverRex]

another quick snap off the daily chart on ung, as you can see, the 9s is right off the top of the channel, and should provide the resistance we need to knock price back down. Not only that we have a sharp wedge pointing up, which indicates it will fall once A top is reached. I'll be looking for the wave (iv) correction in black before re-entering or taking another core position.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung061710c.jpg

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by kaput
I kept debating if I wanted to jump into PMT today or not, but it stayed pretty sideways and I didn't see the opportunity. I've been wanting to dump a bunch of money into some income trusts for awhile now, it's just a matter of timing. Tomorrow perhaps. I noticed they announced their new name will be Perpetual Energy.

pmt also is ready to push higher, my guess is it should top out at 5.65 then pull back some what more significantly, as to how much is anyone's guess, a good place to start would be a 38% retracement if it does hit 5.65 then pull back. it will point to about 5.25

[SilverRex]

looking like the dollar is ready to turn around for a bit here. Euro for the last day or two is looking very corrective and requires a good drop.

as posted last time, unless gold can take out the rising neckline, the bullish path towards a breakout remains, and so far so good as
gold is breaking out, but I say this could be a final drive up to complete our 5 waves off 1085 back in march this year. Once this top ends, we should have a larger consolidation/correction unfold for a few months.

gold is breaking out, but I say this could be a final drive up to complete our 5 waves off 1085 back in march this year. Once this top ends, we should have a larger consolidation/correction unfold for a few months.

Natgas appears ready for a breakout of its own, it may or may not correct this morning, but if it does not breakout early I see UNG retest the 8.60s then launch

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061810.jpg

[SilverRex]

here is my count on the lower level in order to make sense of this rally. I would expect a further surge, then a retest of 1250 then launch for a final wave.

However an extremely more bullish tone would have the last rise of wave (ii) to wave (iii) as another sub dividing set of 5 waves, then that would bring us to at least 1270 just to finish a smaller wave iii

but if the cyclist is calling for a sideway action until august, then I'll favor the current count that the breakout may be capped at 1270s then nose dive

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold0618b.jpg