Official Short-term Investments Thread [Archive] - Page 201 - Beyond.ca - Car Forums

SilverRex

06-18-2010, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by sgouki

So if it touches or sinks lower than those points, it might just go down instead? It's pretty close to that point for ung a few moments back.

anything can happen of course, but generally the supports that get taken out will be a signal for weakness

because in a healthy uptrend, price tend to respect the previous swing point high, in this case its 8.47 for UNG

at this juncture, it really can go either way. price is alot more difficult to gauge when its near the tail end of a run up, that is why more often than not you get alot of consolidation or trinagle patterns because price is getting exhusted, price is overvalued or lack of buyers. So it falls back to a more comfortable price point (which is a retest) and rebuild for the next set of waves towards a higher price.

kaput

06-18-2010, 01:28 PM

SilverRex

06-18-2010, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by kaput
PMT is down a bit today but I still can't decide if I want to pull the trigger or not. I've been watching IAE for a couple weeks as well and I'd like to take a small position there too but again, timing is everything! :drama:

everything is correcting as expected, all the while, pmt should not break below 5.15, if it does that will be a bit concerning, so at 5.22, its dam attractive, next week should be good.

broken_legs

06-18-2010, 03:43 PM

Afterhours has RIG at 55.60 right now... 60 would be pretty sweet early next week.

KappaSigma

06-18-2010, 06:41 PM

Originally posted by SilverRex

everything is correcting as expected, all the while, pmt should not break below 5.15, if it does that will be a bit concerning, so at 5.22, its dam attractive, next week should be good.

Isnt it somewhat of an issue that they only have total proven reserves of 8.8 years?

Do you think they will cut their diviend once they announce conversaion froma trust company?

And when do you think this will happen?

SilverRex

06-19-2010, 10:32 AM

ok lets review the charts this weekend, if you recall, ever since dollar broke the critical 87.25 that I stress is the key to ending the current advance. it has since beautifully corrected sharply lower, however, I was expecting a bit of a counter trend rally, but is continued down ina linear fashion. No sweat, the current trend is down obviously, if there is a rule of thumb it is so fallow trend and not pick the bounces, I dont think its easy to do so anyways.

But with most chart heavily oversold, I am still expecting it to rally, its hard to imagine it will continue to fall like this without a bit of a dead cat bounce. or correction of its down.

looking at the hourly chart, key that a bounce may begin will require price to break the current down trend line, otherwise it will just continue to fall, rinse and repeat.

since the last wave (ii) correctin was quite shallow, we can expect a much larger correctional wave (iv) That is why I dont think the correction is completed without getting below 85 or perhaps even 83-84, I'll expect price to find its way back to the surging neckline in red to complete our wave (iv) then another 5 waves taking out 88 to a new high. That might just then be it for the dollar, where we go from there we'll just have to wait and see

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061910.jpg

for gold, I was suggesting last week that unless price can take out its own neckline in red, the bearish view will remain in limbo and the bullish path remains. Sure enough, gold pushed thru the 1252 barrier. So instead of a triangle wedge we have a barrier wedge instead, but both offer the same scenario, that is breaking out for a final sub wave v advance, we should then be expecting some what a dull or correcting summer before taking flight yet again into the fall/winter.

Right now I expect 1248-1252 to hold and push us higher above 1260, it is still seeking A top. if this support area is broken, that caution, especially breaking down below 1235, would immediately turn gold into a bearish extreme. Those will be the areas to watch. But until they break, continue to buy the dips

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061910.jpg

now for oil, a bit tricky, since cyclist was calling for alow in June, yet its creeping higher and higher, however looking at the current chart/structure, most TA expert will tell you it looks like after an impulsive save down to 67, the current swing up looks corrective, an ABC wave?, I wont be surprised to find oil making one more dive towards 67 or lower for a final low, its been a few weeks when I was expecting a good place to go short would be in the 78-81 area, and we are now here. So the short sellers are out in full force. 78 happens to be the 50% retracement of the entire selloff from 87-67, so even if it breaks out next week, the next area to clear would be 79.5, plenty price to reject oil back to the down side. Now to mention, it is still flerting with the previous broken neckline which is quite significant in a sense.

I may be incline to believe oil will find a bottom and can decouple from the main market this summer, but I'll rather take my chance and look for a better price to get in. And so unless for next week oil suddenly takes out 81, I believe it is waiting for another drive back down to at least a double bottom at 67 imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061910.jpg

SilverRex

06-19-2010, 10:40 AM

Natgas front month contract is now July, June is gone,

and sitting at abouy 5.1, looks like it still has legs.

the fact that it did not break down below 4.98 and UNG at 8.47 is impressive.

chart looks the same from my previous post. it looks like it is still within a very sharp ascending wedge, which is only a matter of time until it breaks down for a steeper for correction.

My expecation is still to see Natgas shoot for 5.4-5.5 and UNG towards 9-9.2 area to complete my sub 5 waves up for a wave (iii) top then give us a wave (iv) correction taking us back down to low 8s (ung)

unless the same support I mention is taking out next week, it's been testing so many times, while the fort is strong, yes, breaking it is equally significant. keep that in mind.

broken_legs

06-19-2010, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by SilverRex
, while the fort is strong, yes, breaking it is equally significant.

Sometimes you come up with some pretty sweet analogies, SR. :D

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 06:21 AM

folks, just a quick look at the dollar index on the 1 hour chart, as metion over the weekend, I am expecting some strength coming in on the dollar index, but first it will have to take out a very obvious trend line shown here.

with a double positive divergence knocking under the STOCH indicator, its only a matter of time until this happens imo. look for price to find its way to 85.8, once we take this out, we should garner quite the momentum, my expecation was still a lower dollar over time before this correction is fully complete, we could be in a flat correction as well, but for now lets look for that little bit of humpth coming from MR. dollar shall we

that should hold oil's advance for the moment and give it a breather

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar062110.jpg

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 06:46 AM

also on Natgas, looking at UNG this morning, since making what appears to be a quadruple bottom at 8.50 last week, it has seen broken out of a declining wedge to the upside back to 8.70s pre-market open. With Natgas now flerting at 5.13 the latest 3 day moves while trianglular in nature, you can call it a side ways consolidation which indicates we will soon have a breakout to the upside, currently with the sharp ascending wedge of its own on the daily degree, I am going to estimate that breakout should allow UNG to test the 9-9.3 area of Natgas at 5.4-5.5

Critical support remains at 8.47 so long as this continues to hold, we will look for an upside breakout beyond 8.8

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/Ung062110.jpg

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 07:36 AM

for pmt/un.to

my view is that we are in a sub iii correction that should not break 5.15, then move up for a wave (iii) top

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/pmt062110.jpg

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 07:56 AM

ung touched 8.80, retest the breakout trendline near 8.70, and could possible surge higher

997TT

06-21-2010, 08:37 AM

Other than 2x etf's what's everyone else buying?

Finally made some money on bnk ... Long story short bought at 7.8 thinking it was an easy 10%. Instead dropped to high 6's and I just held to now. Debating taking the 9% or so as that was my original target but don't know what is a "good" buy right now.

Thoughts on symbols ppl are watching and thinking of buying right now?

davidI

06-21-2010, 09:05 AM

Everything I've looked at looks high in their trends right now...high RSI and close to resistance. TLM, AET.UN, BNP.UN, SU, TRP, CPG etc.

I may pick up a couple hundred shares of LIQ.UN to hold for the dividend and I have an order in for a few hundred shares of PMT.UN at $5.26 but that's it. I've been on the sidelines for a while now as I just got back from 5 weeks without internet access in Africa.

I'd be interested in anything people think is good value right now, just so I have somewhere to put my money.

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 09:22 AM

looks like ung is consolidating in a mini wave iv correction before breaking above 8.80, we'll see if that is the case as long as day's low holds
update: it appears it has breaking down lower, now the question remains, are we still consolidating for a breakout of is it (my alt count) suggest we could be in a longer appearing as a flat correction 3-3-3 waves with the recent 8.80 achieved as our 2nd wave 3, with one more 3 wave back to 8.50

The thing that may be interesting here is if that is the case, the time require for this breakout has been taking way too long to complete its wave v of (iii), if we continue to consolidate for another day or two, that would nearly equal the last (wave ii) correction, which might indicate we may have in fact completed our wave (iii) top a week ago, and we are currently in the wave (iv) correction as I am anticipating. This would signal a even more bullish scenario, because once this correction between 8.5-8.8 ends. It will thrust must higher than 9.1 imo possily reaching 9.50 instead

so keep that in mind.

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 09:41 AM

please be reminded the following chart is a even more bullish outlook (if) ung decides to consolidate further back down to 8.50 without breaking below 8.47, then re-attampt for another breakout. Becaus eof the time we are consolidating at the 8.50 level, this would imply we are onto a wave (v) of [I] that should give us targets well above 9.00 instead of the original target of 9.1s, once this [I] completes, we will be faced with a very substantial correction most likely in a 3 wave pattern back down to 8.50 or even as low as 7.80 depending what type of fibo retracement it's after.

looking at the 10EMA that have supported price so far, it is catching up fast and will soon meet above 8.50, are we waiting for this?

Therefore unless we breakout today, this path may be my new outlook. 8.47 remains to be my critical support, if this cracks, we will be looking for our wave (iv) correction back down to 8.20s

update: please see below for updated chart

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 09:54 AM

another reason why we are struggling at this level for Natgas is the fact if you look at UNG on the weekly chart, we are right up against a trend line that would be bullish if broken to the upside,

with the weekly chart 20EMA now sitting at 8.19, that is my worse case scenario at the moment if price should dive, but having price closing above the 20EMA for a few weeks now, it is becoming more and more encouraging that this rally is for real.

broken_legs

06-21-2010, 09:54 AM

looking at august calls on APC now... I think it will recover soon. It was just downgraded to juk and stock is up 10%. haha

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 10:37 AM

wow ung suddenly broke thru the 8.47 support, in the case i'll be expecting 8-8.2 to be realized here

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 10:37 AM

wow ung suddenly broke thru the 8.47 support, in the case i'll be expecting 8-8.2 to be realized here

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 10:50 AM

update: gold broke down below the 1148-1152 support, this does not look good for gold to make a new high, looking back at my silver chart, it has indeed realized the 19.50 target and could be fulfilling a major correction to a lower low

time to stand sit for gold and wait

watch out if gold takes out 1235 which is another sell signal

update: reloaded hnu at 7.05, with another order at 6.93 (if ung does fill the gap at 8.21) and one more order at 6.60 in case ung decides to make it all the way to 8

sgouki

06-21-2010, 10:55 AM

Wow something happened with UNG. That is one massive massive drop

mr2mike

06-21-2010, 10:56 AM

Ya, I just saw that...
Is this the breakdown SR was talking about? Is it real?

nobb

06-21-2010, 11:01 AM

WOW what a SUDDEN breakdown of UNG. Got in with HND at 5.50, quickly got out 5 mins later at 5.60. That was scary lol.

Any significant meaning as to what just happened? Possible long term bear behavior, or was that just an anomaly? I cant imagine how UNG is going to rally up to SR's prediction of >9.0 now.

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by nobb
WOW what a SUDDEN breakdown of UNG. Got in with HND at 5.50, quickly got out 5 mins later at 5.60. That was scary lol.

Any significant meaning as to what just happened?

it took out the neckline from the sharp ascending wedge to the down side, not really a surprise in my books,

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 11:11 AM

a much needed correction finally, a sharp selloff, after ung broke the neckline of the ascending wedge.

now expecting the correction to be fully in gear, still expecting this to be corrective in nature, make or break is at 7.79, I'll worry if that is taking out, otherwise look for buying between 8-8.2

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung062110c.jpg

cdnsir

06-21-2010, 11:41 AM

What is up with V and MA? Did the bill to restrict interest and fees get overturned today?

broken_legs

06-21-2010, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by cdnsir
What is up with V and MA? Did the bill to restrict interest and fees get overturned today?

V and MA dont make money on interest.

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 01:19 PM

not a fan of pmt breaking below 5.15, however we do have the next support to look over at 5.07-5.08, unless i've got the count wrong and we are still in further consolidation mode (another dip to under 5), but right now I just couldnt see it unles Natgas makes a new low

Natgas critical support lies in the 4.51-4.55 area which we are not even close to yet. So I expect pmt to hld above 5.07 imo

Tha gap for UNG at 8.20 is now filled, how beautiful was that? the question remains, is this it or will we head lower, now the thing to ponder is the drop from 8.84 to 8.2 is only a 30%, not really a number of significance when it comes to retracement/correction. I would at least expect 38% which points to 8.03

so watch for price to attampt another rally towards Ung at 8.50 but that should turn into a resistance, may be worth taking some profit there and scale back for A chance that we could still see 8 dollar UNG

SilverRex

06-21-2010, 01:21 PM

Gold after making a huge dive and now broken under 1235 has now turned into short term bearish, looks like a dull summer is very much alive and well until august as per cyclist's turn date.

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 06:20 AM

yeah it almost made me doubt myself when gold made a new high because generally that is bullish, but then again, gold broke down simply because in a final wave V, EW CAN get truncated on its 5th wave, meaning a 5th wave failure, I believe that was the case here seen in gold. there fore it cannot meet its projected counts and turned lower,

But glad what we saw in silver was indeed the out come, a full fledge correctional rise which turned sharply lower after meeting its own projection near 19.50

now looking at gold this morning, I hope most can learn the importance of supports, in a healthy uptrending market, if the trend is up, previous resistance MUST turn into a support, but if it does not, then you exit, in this case 1248-1252 would have been our magic number to exit all position if taken out, and most TA investored followed that rule of thumb., now gold is holding its last breath on its own neckline that preceded the run up since hitting 1167, imo I think its only a matter of time until this breaks, with what appears to be a negative stoch divergence in the making, my bet is to the down side thru summer at at least 1170-1180 as a initial target , a more bearish tone would be the next neckline seen in blue here near 1150 I'll use those as our targets for the summer lows imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062210.jpg

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 06:26 AM

as for the dollar, it pan out quite ok, I was expecting it to hit 85.8, rejection then breakout from the trendline, so far so good. might breakdown due to overbought, but I expect a bit of rise to at least 87, given there also apepars to be a gap to be filled in the 87-87.2 range.

for now I am still expecting the dollar to make a low under 85, because of the fact the wave (ii) correction was small, wave (iv) correction often becomes the opposit still targeting between 83-84 when this counter trend correction ends.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar062210.jpg

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 06:49 AM

Also natgas, so far its ready to open this morning lower yet again, no suprise here as I was expecting this big correction to take shape a week ago targeting the 8-8.2 area for UNG

it will be good to look to buy the dips in these area, worse case is as low as 7.8 ung and 4.61 for natgas

I'll use those numbers as a make or break, if those area is broken to the down side I'll consider scaling back if not exit the market for further directions, because that would simply something else isnt right (kinda like gold taking out the 1250 support)

hopefully natgas's low is in, and the rise we saw is legitimate and as such, this correction would be the buying opportunity for the next advance

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 08:19 AM

for the moment im going to expect 5.07 to hold for pmt but so far it has test 5.05 200 moving average and the breakout point., getting quite edgy here

looking at ung from the 6.72-8.84 leg up, we are iniches away from clinching our 38% fibo retracement which is pointed at 8.03

its the bare minimum to be hit, so let see if that is all she can muster.

pmt retesting the breakout trendline, if this breakout is real, pmt ought to make a strong move off here pretty soon

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/pmt062210.jpg

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 08:39 AM

my current view on Ung, a rising channel

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung062210.jpg

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 08:43 AM

if this is it for pmt's correction, then its time to pick some up, spotted huge spike in volume at 5.05, the same level of sell off when it was at 5.40s is now appearing buying at 5.05 (range trading?)

anyhow hopefully this is it

update:

both Natgas and UNG have hit its 38.2% fibo retracment from this entire run up, now let see if that would produce a bottom

e36bmw///

06-22-2010, 11:33 AM

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Hey SR, if it doesn't produce a bottom, are we going to see even lower nat gas?

not sure if I should keep shorting

well if all depends if you believe the latest rally is real or fake. fake as in, you expect lower lows, in that case of course you hold,

but for myself I believe the rise was real and as such the pull back will be corrective, we have completed a 38% retracement of the entire run from 3.85-5.22, unless it wants to throw in a 50% retracement, my bet is to the upside

If your already making a profit, I would at least take some off the table or scale back because we are at the junture where bulls and bear is going to have to fight this one out

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 12:11 PM

UNG is trying to form a triple bottom off 7.97, im hoping this is it, simply because the last time we had our wave (i) drop it was about 5 days,

so let see if we can rise out of the gate from here.

djayz

06-22-2010, 12:34 PM

Are we seeing a turn around in NG to the upside?

SilverRex

06-22-2010, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by djayz
Are we seeing a turn around in NG to the upside?

im hoping, I've loaded up mostly in 8.20 and added my final position today near 8 so hopefully this is it. I just have to stick to my own call and see what happens :thumbsup:

djayz

06-22-2010, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by SilverRex

im hoping, I've loaded up mostly in 8.20 and added my final position today near 8 so hopefully this is it. I just have to stick to my own call and see what happens :thumbsup:

Sounds good, yah I loaded up into HNU yesterday at 7.05 then again today at 6.65 so here's to hoping that NG shows some strength soon.

e36bmw///

06-22-2010, 01:19 PM

nbm

kaput

06-22-2010, 01:57 PM

sgouki

06-22-2010, 04:42 PM

HNU is off the chain this week. I pulled half out just to see what goes down for tomorrow. Might jump back in if it shows some solid growth, but for now, I can't stomach the huge losses.

SilverRex

06-23-2010, 06:12 AM

ok so natgas have moved back up a bit this morning, and so far we may have hit the bottom imo, looking at UNG this morning a nice hammer closing back above the 20EMA, as you can see if the count is correct, the 8 dollars would be a very good place for A bottom, being near two important necklines supporting underneath, while not quite hitting it exactly, but it does not have to , in fact it can hit the bottom of the rising channel in later date as a retest to confirm the upswing.

so let look for further comfirmation and see if UNG can get back above 8.30, if we have bottomed, we should see a characteristic of a initial move up, a semi strong pull back (similar to the 1st rise off 6.88) then a sub iii of (v)

my expecation is a last 5 wave move towards 9+ then it will be a multi week correction thru the summer

So far NG is looking green this morning at about 4.83, we'll see how she goes

also another confirmation is to wait for a swing pt low, (2 consecutive higher lows)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung062310.jpg

SilverRex

06-23-2010, 07:34 AM

gold is ready to break the supporting neckline for further weakness

Commanderwiggin

06-23-2010, 08:38 AM

Whats your take on oil this week SR? It just took a hit...time to buy hou?

sgouki

06-23-2010, 08:52 AM

Looking good for ung/hnu so far. Just reloaded back in but I'm gonna watch real carefully.

SilverRex

06-23-2010, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by Commanderwiggin
Whats your take on oil this week SR? It just took a hit...time to buy hou?

from my last post, I was expecting oil to become exhusted in the 78-79 range and looking for it to break lower

with oil taking out 75.5 my view is to test the next level around 73 however it might want to head back up to 77 or even 78 before making the next dive

SilverRex

06-23-2010, 12:28 PM

looks like ung is consolidating between 8.10-8.20 for a potential breakout to the upside, it appears that way anyways.

Hopefully that is the case, as I am expecting once we get back above 8.30, it will begin to bring back technical investor in believing another rise towards 9 is still in the cards.

pmt made some good strides today after the hard sell off towards 5.01, so far everything is according to forecast.

gold remains weak, should move down further once the counter trend rally ends.

oil, while I would expect the 73s, keep the number at 78 on alert, if oil closes above this, it would immediately turn it bullish imo, otherwise look to add on dips on the way down

also I think we should find our way back to 8.50 UNG simply because that is going to be a very important number, For the time being, 8.50 will become a resistance again, which quite possibly be a good place to take some profit off the table, bears will try to fort up the zone there as a RS and force the H&S pattern to attract more shorts. So we will have a defining moment if we can then invalidate such a pattern and spark a rally, therefore we could be range bound between 8.3-8.5 until it decides a direction.

broken_legs

06-23-2010, 11:24 PM

Load up the truck on BP.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bp-now-too-big-fail

SilverRex

06-24-2010, 06:35 AM

ok here is some chart updates for this morning, so far both gold and oil is looking pretty good. ever since gold broke below 1252, it was clearly bearish, and it was a matter of time until it takes out the neckline right near 1233, and after it did, a retest and back down she goes, my view now is we are about to move into a wave iii of III down that should take us right back to 1200 and over time to 1180s, will gold head lower? we will know soon, but if cycle points to a low this month then consolidation until august, this type of swing would be most power ful now and will slowly swing into some sort of wedge until a breakout in august. So I expect the hardest hit will be now for gold, then the swings will be come smaller and smaller if you know what I mean.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062410.jpg

and for oil thru the post in the weekend, I suggest oil should move higher than 79.5, and expected a down side, with price having continuely testing the 75.5 level, I view is that we shall see the next move down to the 73.5 area for an initial support. we'll have to see if it can break this or remain in the channel (kinda like Natgas)

I'll view oil to retest 67 or lower only if this channel does not hold imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062410.jpg

and finally Natgas, using UNG as reference, as you can see, so far the call at 8 is perfect, if this channel is what Natgas will be moving along with, then the next expecation is an upside wave v of (i) to take shape. I will expect 8.5 to provide a strong resistance initially, but i am sure many will be talking about a possible H&S pattern when that happens, so alot of faith will be required then,

make or break still remains at 7.79 in my books. also if we do not break yesterday's low then we will have a confirmed swing pt low at 8 and this will attract further buying onto friday opening as safer traders will slowly come back in

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung062410.jpg

nobb

06-24-2010, 10:12 AM

UNG not doing so well right now, just a sudden drop. Could it be a possible indication that UNG isnt going to hit the 8.5 target due to it breaking yesterday's low?

SilverRex

06-24-2010, 10:44 AM

ok so ung didnt take off as I expected, but then again it did not confirm momentum and did not take out 8.30 and with today's action, there will be no swing pt low being established. That is why a drop like this should not be a surprise.

looking at ung on stock charts, if you measured the exact distance of the channel, you can say we are slightly off, so will this be a double bottom? or poke slightly lower for a divergence?

I will hold my breath of course, so long 7.79 isnt broken, I will remain bullish on Natgas and for this rising channel to take shape

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung0624b.jpg

SilverRex

06-24-2010, 02:03 PM

well UNG remined above the recent low this week, we'll just have to wait for another day to see how she goes, key is to break above 8.25 (breakout neckline) to confirm trend.

mean while, pretty impressed with gold's sudden surge, but looking at the over all picture, I still see weakness, a recount suggested when gold broke down below the neckline, it was to complete our wave v of (i) or (A), a 3 wave correction back to 1247, and now is collasping, if gold is the real deal, it should not break 1237, if it does, then the entire move off 1225-1247 would be very corrective indeed, that would give it another retest to 1228, breaking that will mean hell breaking loose, because the next wave down will be seen as wave III or (C) there fore we will see how far she will go.

for silver holders, be warned, if your already holding silver from afar, then keep holding, but if your still looking for a place to jump in, my recommendation is to stay away of silver when gold puts a significant sell off, because it would cripple silver even further. I wont consider gold bullish unless we can re-capture above 1256, there fore look dips coming in hot and fast.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062410b.jpg

SilverRex

06-25-2010, 06:21 AM

well looking at the daily chart for gold, its clear there is a very serious negative divergence formed with when price poked thru 1250 and back down, with that in mind, add to the fact it did not turn 1250 into support and breaking down below the 1233 neckline, all does not appear to be a healthy characteristic of an uptrending move. I'll give gold a bit of a nenutral stanze for now, as from my last post. it will take gold breaking above 1256 for now to begin turning it into a bullish tone once again, otherwise I'll expect the fall still. But dont jump in blindly either (if your a day trader), wait for clues such as gold breaking down below 1248 and 1238, once those are cleared, then we should be back to a bearish view in full swing.

Afterall, in the grand scheme of things, gold is indeed bullish in times of economic trouble or uncertainity, I think it is a fight of the obvious and technical retracement crowds trying to force a certain telling. a sense of irrational behavior that will only increase in both directions over time.

Natgas continues to hold its floor, while I'll remain a bullish tone until some hard numbers get taken out, next confirmation of trend reversal is for UNG to break above 8.25, a very obvious neckline holding it down and should ignite buying if we can push thru this area. otherwise continue to be patient as it attampts to bottom around the current level.

e36bmw///

06-25-2010, 10:22 AM

SilverRex

06-25-2010, 11:45 AM

ung is looking very much what happen in the 2nd week of june. if it can close above 8.25 today it would definately set up a strong next week, next target to hit will be right back at 8.50

however the weekly chart 20EMA is at 8.15, we must close above this to sustain weekly momentum.

UNG does appear to have a iH&S targeting 8.50 upon breaking the 8.25 neckline.

isnt it wonder ful how 8.25 was the high today, talk about TA working its mojo.

still cheering for NG here,

also to correct what I said about a swing pt low, we in fact do have registered a swing pt low at 7.97, hopefully this is wave (iv) correction. Then give us one final push north before a prolong weakness thru summer that will set up some great buying level for the winter months.

nobb

06-25-2010, 12:45 PM

NICE! Thanks for the tip...UNG is breaking 8.28..let's hope it holds. Still iffy on holding volatile ETFs throughout the weekend such as with HNU but this new break definitely is increasing my confidence in NG.

Based on historical trends, it seems that if there is an obvious bullish trend before the weekend hits, then that usually results in a spike on monday when the market opens. Is that a valid assumption?

kaput

06-25-2010, 12:51 PM

SilverRex

06-25-2010, 12:52 PM

Agricultural business

mr2mike

06-25-2010, 02:03 PM

Watching HNU closely. Can't wait to see Monday's open.

davidI

06-25-2010, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by kaput
I need some more stocks to take a look at. I'm into PMT right now and that's all. Been watching IAE for awhile but it's still trending down. I'm trying to delay an entry into that one as long as possible, I think their next news release will cause a big spike again. I don't really like the look of HSE. Otherwise, I don't have much else on the radar. What are the rest of you doing?

Right now I'm just in CPG, PMT.UN, LIQ.UN & TA.

I'm watching SU, TLM, EME, STP, TME, RIM, AET.UN and KEY.UN for possible entry points.

SilverRex

06-28-2010, 06:49 AM

ok lets review this week's charts. Starting with the dollar index, while I was expecting a counter trend rally to begin the week targeting the gap at 87-87.2, it did not have enough leg to reach that level, and now we are back at possibly heading lower. No surprise here as mention on my previous post that ever since the dollar ended its advance by taking out 87.25 to the down side, we are in for a steeper correction than shallow wave (ii), getting to 85 was probablly the initial target, however we are faced with a few scenarios. One is that we could be in a flat correction between 85-88 until a breakout occurs, or we could testing the 50-61% fibo retracement before this corrections ends which is between 83.5-84.5. Even so I have a 3rd view that instead of a 3 wave down to 85, we could be in a 5 waves down with last week's rally in the dollar at the begining as wave iv, with wave v headed slightly lower than 85.

we wont know much until the pattern begins to unfold into one of the 3 scenarios I mention. but the more realistic approch may be a bit of a poke under 85 to complete a 5 waves down, then a more significant count trend rally that will take us back to the 87 that I am still expecting. Fill the gap, and head lower towards 84 for a 5-3-5 3 wave correction.

Am I confusing you? good. Thats what trading is all about. The general market also appears to head slightly lower then make another run for one final gasp before another drop.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar062810.jpg

now for gold, what I thought was a trendline break under 1233 call was too soon. With price completely turned around and take out 1256 tells me, our wave .v is not finished yet, looking at the chart, you can clearly see we have a much longer neckline support prices all lows back to 1085, and with this, there is really no more neckline support until 1150. So that has now become my critical make or break. While wave .v is not completed. the moment we break down below this new neckline which is probablly sitting at 1235, we'll know wave .v will then be finally finished. And we can look forward to a larger correctional wave (iv) possibly taking us right back down to 1150 for starters thru the summer.

Now remember, dont get all your hopes high if gold suddenly jumps 20 dollar over 1260, this may not be the 1350 move we are expecting, if my counts are in the right place, this up move will be limited, the bigger move should not start until we finish a larger correction down to 1150 to complete its wave (iv), the entire rally off 1167 back in May continues to show it is struggling to maintain a healthy characteristic of an uptrend.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062810.jpg

and finally for UNG, my view that we have complete wave (iv) and expecting one final run up to a wave (v) along being inside of a rising channel remains solid. with 8.50 being our first challenge, once we take that out it should clear the way over 9.00, the only concern I may have is that if the bottom of the channel gets taken out, then something else is happening, such as 5 waves down instead of 3 waves, and potentially retest the 7.79 area which is a make or break in my own books. But with Natgas at around 4.82 this morning, we have some wiggle room to begin the week.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung062810.jpg

SilverRex

06-28-2010, 06:49 AM

update: Natgas is starting the day with a pull back, ung pre-market is flerting at 8.12 right now.

While my view is to begin an uptrend towards 9.00, remember my suggestion that the top on friday, could still only be a wave iv with one more leg down?

if UNG breaks below 8.00, it will setup a retest of 7.79, be prepare for this

davidI

06-28-2010, 09:02 AM

SR, what's your take on the index as a whole? I was just looking at XIU and we've dropped below the 200 day MA and the 50 day just crossed over the 200 day MACD.

997TT

06-28-2010, 09:15 AM

I sold my bnk for a modest 8% gain. Have now bought Lif-un for the quarterly dividend and hopes of selling it for $48-49 in the next 2 weeks. Another 8%ish or so.

Stop loss around the 200MA of $43.50.

SilverRex

06-28-2010, 09:31 AM

Originally posted by davidI
SR, what's your take on the index as a whole? I was just looking at XIU and we've dropped below the 200 day MA and the 50 day just crossed over the 200 day MACD.

according to your chart, it does appear the correction is finished and its ready to begin a larger wave down,

but if DOW is any indication of the market which usually is a better indicator, Id say dow will have a limited down side then one more rally before dropping the jaw (based on the count anyways)

If gold/oil takes a beating, this might still line up with tsx dropping sharply as well

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow062810.jpg

djayz

06-28-2010, 11:52 AM

Damn whats going on with NG, was not expecting this after last weeks strong finish.

SilverRex

06-28-2010, 12:10 PM

with UNG sharply opening lower today, it has falling out of the rising channel that I was expecting and hoped would be the key push for natgas to make another rally.

So looking at the counts here, we may have a 5 waves down instead of a 3 wave corrections. Obviously that does not look as bullish as it did before, but unless it can take out 7.79, I dont think I'll look for a bearish exit just yet.

unless it can suddenly surge back to friday's high, I wouldnt immediately say natgas is bullish in the short term. with the latest weakness, I now expect a flat correction to take place instead. a 5-3-5 waves perhaps in the cards here. We'll just have to wait and see what its next move will be.

In reference to Natgas, 4.55 is our make or break, My view is 5.55 remains in the card so long 4.55 holds.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung062810b.jpg

SilverRex

06-28-2010, 12:10 PM

one more chart for the day, oil. oil hasnt really been too exciting to trade every since taking that beating down to 67 a few weeks ago.

my initial target to have oil retest 73, after hitting 78s, stopped dead in its track with a double bottom at 75.5, while I was expecting a rally after reaching a low, oil proves to be a bit more bullish than I thought. My last suggestion is if oil recaptures above 78, then it will turn oil back up. And so it did punch thru 78 and reclose above the previous broken neckline off the daily degree. Now my expecation is it will find its way back to 82-84

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062810.jpg

SilverRex

06-28-2010, 01:15 PM

update:

I notice we no longer have the July contract price for Natgas, and if we are trading the august month, then the make of break for Natgas is now at 4.65 instead.

to my understanding, it still points to UNG at around 7.79-7.83 as our make or break. Again, as long as this holds, I fully expect one more rally to above 8.8

nobb

06-29-2010, 06:06 AM

Shit..pre-market for UNG NOT looking good this morning. Looks bearish to me. Anyone still holding on to their HNU?

davidI

06-29-2010, 06:16 AM

Pre-market everything is not looking good this morning. The markets in China took a pretty bad hit and I have a feeling that the consumer confidence numbers won't be good. I sold most of my holdings yesterday morning - held on to LIQ.UN and TA as they're my dividend payers that are not overly volatile.

davidI

06-29-2010, 06:31 AM

Originally posted by davidI
SR, what's your take on the index as a whole? I was just looking at XIU and we've dropped below the 200 day MA and the 50 day just crossed over the 200 day MACD.

Originally posted by SilverRex

according to your chart, it does appear the correction is finished and its ready to begin a larger wave down,

but if DOW is any indication of the market which usually is a better indicator, Id say dow will have a limited down side then one more rally before dropping the jaw (based on the count anyways)

http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/2010/06/29/tech-talk-for-tuesday-june-29th-2010/

Looks like the NYSE has had a "Death Cross" as well. I love learning new TA terms haha.

SilverRex

06-29-2010, 06:37 AM

ok ever since giving gold a bit of a doubt that it can still reach a bit higher for another breakout, it has since shot right back down and currently resting at a very critical supporting neckline, upon closely look the neckline is closely to 1232, and so far is just sitting not too far above it.

while there could be another neckline drawn up to about 1225, I will say 1225-1232 to be THE critical area that gold must be able to keep its head above in order to sustain a final breakout move this summer, even so I still expect the breakout move to be limited if it does happen.

otherwise its only a matter of time until this neckline is taking out after being tested so many times, its like knocking on the door in a barrier wedge to an eventual breakout, but in this case to an eventual breakdown, so far targeting the 1180 area then perhaps even 1150s

is the extra 50 dollar move worth all the trouble? is it not better to wait thru the summer to see what gold does? and with clarity settle back in instead? not a fun time to trade gold at the moment imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062910.jpg

and for UNG, while it did not break 7.79, my view that we are in a 5 wave down suggested yesterday is holding true, as August Natgas price has broken down further this morning and so far has bounced off the 4.6 support and now sitting at about 4.66 as I write this.

Now remember, the key is still 7.79 I do not wish Natgas/UNG to break this, if it does, I will probably have to call of the original count that we are in a final wave V to reach over 9+, UNG MUST jump today and stay above 7.79 all together and produce a ABC wave (iv) bottom green path if it still wishes to advance to higher highs.

However with the 5 waves down, and the fact that the 10/20 EMA supports are not holding price up is starting to tell me I should keep an open mind for the possibility of another down side move. As you can see, the alt count in brown suggest the recent breakout to 8.84 is simply an extended zig zag corrective advance. Again this will most certainly be put in reality if 7.79 is broken. I'll even go on to say because of the current front month contract, 4.6 is as low as I wish to see for this retracement, anything lower would seriously kill the current count imo because that would take out 7.79 immediately during or at market open.

The one thing that can be seen is that since this is the 1st dive towards retesting 7.79 I expect price to hold regardless of trend, because we are in the tail end of completing a 5 waves down from 8.84, it will most certainly give us a 3 wave advance to the opposite direction even if the trend has now reversed. So during this advance, please take the time to evaulate your holdings and perhaps scale back. It is better to wait for clarity then to get caught with your pants down.

Even if natgas does follow the green path and give us the much expected target over 9, it will then be followed by yet another significant correction. So there is plenty of time to re-enter in Natgas when the dust settles. Dont panic because your not missing the boat here, yet. wave (iii) for this duration has already come and gone, it will be some time before we are setup for another wave (iii) advance which is generally the best count to ride in and usually offers the most gains.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung062910.jpg

SilverRex

06-29-2010, 06:50 AM

and just a quick jab at oil, oil is in a similar manner flerting up against at the bottom of its own trend channel, looking for 75.5 to hold if we wish to see 81+ or a break to spark a selloff that could bring price right back down to 67

update: gold took out 1232 support neckline, last stand is at 1225 before it turns significantly more bearish

nobb

06-29-2010, 08:05 AM

What would you define as UNG breaking 7.79? Because pre-market it has dipped into 7.79 this morning and right now it's 7.75. It does not appear to be holding.

SilverRex

06-29-2010, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by nobb
What would you define as UNG breaking 7.79? Because pre-market it has dipped into 7.79 this morning and right now it's 7.75. It does not appear to be holding.

correct, that doesnt look at all, but with the gap lefted just under 8.3 as well as under 8 now, my expecation is that we will find a bottom around the 7.7x and look for a 3 wave corrective structure to close the gap above before falling yet again

997TT

06-29-2010, 08:18 AM

picked up some tck.b at $31.60.
hoping to sell at $34.50-$36 in the next month

SilverRex

06-29-2010, 09:33 AM

DOW is moving nicely to finish wave B of an ABC correction, then I expect we will rally until august for a wave C higher than 10600

SilverRex

06-29-2010, 12:42 PM

ung appears to be done completing this 5 waves down from 8.84, I now expect a 3 wave counter trend rally

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung062910b.jpg

SilverRex

06-29-2010, 01:03 PM

also for oil, it now appears oil is in a broadening wedge either we will move onto a breakout move or have one more drive to a wave E before breaking higher.

either way oil is short term bullish as 75 area is becoming a very good support so long it continues to hold in this pattern.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062910.jpg

sgouki

06-29-2010, 01:09 PM

I sure hope UNG is all done. Those drops have been pretty huge but given today, everything went down. I just reloaded back into HNU but it does look like it's getting close to it's June starting point.

max_boost

06-29-2010, 01:15 PM

I am very sad. I had a sell order for $19 HXU and it never got there. My cost was $17, 3000 shares. And now it's at $16.30

FML

:( :cry:

SilverRex

06-29-2010, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by max_boost
I am very sad. I had a sell order for $19 HXU and it never got there. My cost was $17, 3000 shares. And now it's at $16.30

FML

:( :cry:

bad luck that you picked 19 to exit, while it is after the fact, the chart clearly looks bearish with an ABC corrective structure having 18.7 as wave C, and sell signal would have been trigger when wave A at 18 did not hold, if it did not turn into support, then clearly the trend is typically a correction and not a new trend.

anyhow with that said, there is a gap in the 17 area, if my view is correct that dow still has one more drive back up before falling further, then hxu should at least inch back above 17 to fill the gap before falling again.

but chart does look scary since 10/20 EMA has become bearish, and if this is a wave III down it could be quite strong. the only saving grace is to count on the fact this initial drop is merely a sub dividing i of (iii) similar to the drop from 19.4 to 16.74, notice how it recovered significantly before falling hard again, if we get one of those, then it aint as bad. Nothing is for certain, but thats my best guess.

that red neckline will be the key, I believe it shall be retested, the question is when not if.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/hxu062910.jpg