Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Penis McNickels]

Originally posted by mr2mike
I love how this thread goes silent on decline days. On big gain days, I can hardly keep up... sheep mentality I guess

I enjoy following this thread, but don't usually post. Mainly because on decline days I find myself busy shitting my pants.

And on gain days I'm busy cumming in them.


I think I need new pants...




But a big thanks to SR for all the updates!

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by broken_legs



Also as a small spec, i bought some 20 puts on TXT. Very small spec.


Well those TXT 20 Puts that I bought @ 1.10, just filled at 3.20 today.

:bigpimp:

[SilverRex]

ok trying not to post too often these days, but then again, every chart appears to be in some of consolidation

looking at the dollar, it appears the initial idea of a further down side remains on track. with price in a wedge I expect a down side breakout since this came in the heels of a sell off, targeting the 83s, while the ABC I've drawn C leg is lower yes, but if you look at the euro, clearly we have a perfect ABC setup and euro is currently rising (resuming) for an upside breakout.

so either we will see a breakdown in the dollar quite soon or it may drift side way for one last kick at the can then down she goes.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar063010.jpg

with that said, the dow appears to be near completion of wave 'b', expecting a wave C that may or may not be higher than wave 'a' we could also have a false break down as well since indicators are already oversold in my books. I dont think we will see a major break down just yet,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow063010.jpg

and for gold, we have all these neckline after neckline holding gold in, I guess the bullish crowds is still screaming 1350, so for the moment, an upside break out appears to be intact so long the neckline underneath continues to hold, but the moment this breaks up, especially moving under 1222 at this time, will warrant quite the bearish hammer imo 1150-1180 still remains in my radar, not going to put too much hope in the upside breakout (unless) this consolidation pattern stretches to august, then we could all get exicted again.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold063010.jpg

and finally, oil, not much change since my last post, so far it is moving within the widening wedge as discovered eariler. Again, since this is on the heels of an up move, the breakout should occur to the top side

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil063010.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok so Natgas doesnt look pretty from my last look at UNG, and today remains no different, with natgas breaking below 4.50 this morning is another sell signal for others, looking at UNG today, I still believe we are nearly done completing a 5 waves down pattern, time will only tell if this 5 waves down is the beginning or a major leg down as the original EW count suggested that can put NG back to under 4 dollars.

breaking the 7.79 support was not a good sign, saving grace will be regardless of trend, I expet a counter move to the opposit direction to begin soon. with gaps lefted near 8 and near 8.30 that is my conservative target. Would be a good place to scale back and wait for more clues as to where it is heading because currently it is set up to fall pretty hard.

stoch is near the 50 mark and could warrant a bounce here to confirm we are near the end this sell off.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung063010.jpg

[SilverRex]

here is another look at why I dont think the market is ready to turn south just yet, generally speaking the market tends to dive when usd is strong, because of the flight to safety scenario. however I wanted to post the euro chart it is much clearer then the dollar index but since the dollar index made up mostly in euro, they often move very close against each other.

as you can see euro has completed a major wave III and this wave IV retracement should be quite significant, namely because wave II was shallow so the opposite can be expected of this correction, a perfect ABC wave correction on the lower time frame is now set, we should be ready for another up move pushing euro back to 2500-2600+ or even higher potentially.

this is where the market will continue to straddle or inch higher and could very well set up for an august sell off in the market place.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/euro063010.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey SR
So oil broke 74.50

So did it break the channel and should we expect it to go lower?

ya wasnt expecting such a sharp drop like that but potentially that last dive could be a 5 wave ending pattern to the down side.

Id as long as it does not close below it we should be ok, and to play it safe, wait for a swing pt low of at least two higher lows being establish off the 1 hour chart

[997TT]

Gonna bank on oil not going too much lower ...
Just re bought BNK at 7.06. Sold this thing last week in the mid-8's.
Fingers crossed that I get similar results this time. I could so use a 2 day rally ... Lol
Sell tck.b and bnk for good gains.

[nobb]

Sharp drop in oil, but it's also rebounding up just as quickly. Uncertain as to whether I should hold my HOU shares over the weekend now. Was expecting oil prices to go up after the inventory report as well as from the long weekend.

What site do you guys normally use to monitor gas and oil prices in real time? For NG I've always just been referencing UNG in MSN Money, but cant find anything for crude.

[e36bmw///]

nbm

[sgouki]

Yes, UNG is now headed in the +. Safe to hold?

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by nobb
What site do you guys normally use to monitor gas and oil prices in real time? For NG I've always just been referencing UNG in MSN Money, but cant find anything for crude.

I use finance.google.com but it's not 100% real time but fairly close.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by mr2mike


I use finance.google.com but it's not 100% real time but fairly close.

search under cmegroup datasuites

[SilverRex]

as suggested from my previous post on gold, breaking down the 1226 area is very bearish, careful. support to land if sell off continues would be first at 1180s then 1150s

oil also closed below 74.50 which is another bearish sell signal, with dow breaking new lows on July 1st. we'll see if the bleeding stops

Other markets moving in line so far is the euro surging as expected. Dollar looking for a low

UNG on natgas have filled the 1st gap just under 8, next target is to fill the gap under 8.30

[SilverRex]

ok alittle bit of an interesting theory I have regarding natgas, If some of the experts are calling for a stagflation enviornment and the energy/food will decouple from the market soon and take off due to cycles and such.

I just cant see how Natgas could swing to a new low (yes its always a possibility and would create such a great buying atmosphere when that does happen) that is why its best to have ammo set aside for such an event. Or if gold suddenly tanks 200 dollars like it did back in 2008, I think you make the most gains when you can realize opportunities and can afford to act on it.

Remember, the market always wants to screw 99% of the trader, whats worse than having to trap both bulls and bears?

reason I say this now is that Natgas is beginning to draw plenty of attention for a bullish case, but technical expert are still calling for a lower Natgas before this is all over. One of the most difficult play is trying to analyze a trend change when the market is in its tail end of a decline, there is just too much indecision and shake out patterns that can throw both camps off.

for starters, ever since NG broke below 4.55, it appears immediately our bullish count is off the table and the bearish camp is singing for joy. but looking at it again, what 'if' we have a 5th wave failure back in May that ended the decline right at 4.03? depending if your looking at UNG or not, you might even say its a double 5th wave failure both at 3.88 and 4.03 that ended the last wave. price should have turned lower on June 1st but instead it broke out with huge volume to the top side.

Since then we have 3 waves ending at 5.23 here. Initially I called 4.55 to be the wave (i) which if broken will become bearish, but if the double 5th wave failure is true to its name, then instead of that we actually might have a legit 5 waves for (i) from 4.03-5.23 If that is the case, then the sell off now still can be seen as corrective. Meaning, once the correction is done, it will take off for a wave (iii) advance. This would line up well for pmt producing a strong run before summer end and in line with cyclist's forecast.

The 5 waves down at first might even be seen as 3 waves as price was trying to consolidating between 5-5.23 it was all still part of the previous wave .v of (i), so my current view (until proven wrong) is that we might still have some hope for a bullish scenario, but can only be confirmed if we see price get back up in an impulsive fashion.

What can kill this count? well, by taking out 4.03, yes its quite steep, who can hold on for such a drop, that is why it'll come down to one's risk apetite and tolerence.

right now I'll assume we have a 5 waves down pattern, that will follow with a 3 wave correction that should fill some of the gap lefted behind, then look for another 5 waves down for a wave C low.

but, here's the thing to look out for, price suddenly becomes impulsive, and begins to take out resistance after resistance, and break above 5.00, then this bullish theory will begin to shape up accurately.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/failure.jpg

[SilverRex]

also with the NG inventories today, something is starting to change week after week, we went from increase of 87 Bcf to 81 and today 60 Bcf, stocks were -27 Bcf less than a year ago instead of -14 last week.

are we seeing a trend here?

also isnt it wonderful that every sector was sold off today, dow new lows, gold in a sharp wave iii down, oil is down TOO , but yet Natgas is up +0.17 as I Write this

update holy crap NG jumped off the low of the day by over 30 cent, either is a huge short covering, or the inventory report is a sign for things to come?

[Red@8]

Its too bad the cdn market is closed or this would have been a sweet day on hnu.

[e36bmw///]

bn

[djfob]

Originally posted by Red@8
Its too bad the cdn market is closed or this would have been a sweet day on hnu.

I'm crossing my finger for tomorrow;)

[SilverRex]

wow NG is simply on fire, we are potentially on the verge of having a massive engulfing pattern, if we can close above the top of the previous 3 days, that would be quite the bullish signal.

the 5th wave failure view I posted eariler is becoming more and more believable. it will all depend if we have a 5 waves down pattern from 8.84-7.62 or was it 3 waves instead. regardless of how bullish it is, I expect a pull back due to profit taking, and this could set us up with a ih&s pattern that can launch natgas to new highs.

Yes this outlook could prove false, but today's action is quite encouraging, along with the inventory report,

10/20 EMA did not cross over for a bearish signal, in fact it is about to open up for another huge run. So hold on to your horse,also the low at 7.62 for UNG happens to be a perfect 62% fibo retracement support of the entire wave (i), talk about all stars lining up

what we are looking for is sharp up moves (like today), then 3 wave corrections pattern , then breakout for yet more surges. Then we will know this wave (iii) leg up is the real deal.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung070110.jpg

[icky2unk]

thinking of purchasing 1000 shares of Nuvista, dipped quite a bit over the past few days.

any thoughts?

[broken_legs]

uhhhhhhhh gold?


tell me gold drops below 1200 again and the dollar is at parity. 1350 is too much to pay for a GML!

[SilverRex]

so Natgas had a big day yesterday, on UNG, my expecation that it will at least fill the gap at 8 and at 8.30 has come to past.

now is natgas bullish enough to make another move?

well because of such a sharp rise, I am going to entertain the idea that its a yes.

looking at UNG this morning, we have just completed a wave iii and currently correcting. a bullish tone would be price holds above 8, and make for another surge higher, make or break on this latest run up is well at the bottom at 7.8 so we will see how the count unfolds, hopfully giving us some sort of mini 5 waves breaking 8.30, then it should consolidate further before yet another breakout imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung070210.jpg

[nobb]

Oh wow, was not looking forward to this morning. Hurting so much from HOU right now. Could be a possible breakdown in oil since it closed below the 74.50 threshold? HOU has not been this low since May.

What's the longest you guys have ever held on to these leveraged ETFs?

[SilverRex]

gold after warning the bearish signal if 1222-1226 is taking out, surely a sharp sell off ensured. looks like our bearish call on weak gold thru the summer month remains in tact. wave count continue to suggest we are in a wave (iv) correction, current resistance must hold is at 1225-1226, but remember this is a wave (iv) consolidation, that means price (once it finds a bottom) can move into a wedge, faking both camps out before a breakout occurs

my expecation is gold to find landing at least towards 1180, then perhaps even down to the 1150 area so we'll see how it goes in the next few days.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold070210.jpg

[SilverRex]

dollar continues to look good on each call, my expectation that it was only correcting and will breakout to the down side so far is holding up well. the 50% retracement of this wave (iii) appears to be holding price together. I am expecting we will have a mini correction than at least one last dive towards 83 before potentially ending this dollar sell off.

what is interesting to note is that the 83 area have a double fibo retracement support. a 61% of this wave (ii) to wave (iii) and a 38% of the entire run since bottoming at 74. So the 83 would be the most attractive area to land a support and go long imo

for dollar to immediately turn bullish, it will have to take out 86.4, but I dont see that happening just yet.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar070210.jpg

[SilverRex]

and finally for oil, the wave (iv) correction did not pan out as 75 oil did not hold, now oil has became weak in the short term. it does appear oil is ready to retest some major support 67-69 in the coming days, but with that said, positive divergence spotted on the 1 hour and could initiate a counter trend rally before falling yet again, really not the best area to jump in with both feet, as the more logical scenario is to wait for oil to recapture above 75.4 or wait for a lower low

for the moment I expect price to be held down with the falling neckline, oil wont appear to excited until we cross above 75 once again, its time to let it do its thing

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil070210.jpg

[sgouki]

Holding onto HNU over the weekend. Hoping for positive results for Monday and Tuesday? If I woulda woke up on time I woulda sold.

[SilverRex]

hope everyone had a good long weekend. I'll be off for about 10 days starting this wed for a little vacation trip with my family. So dont be shocked if you dont see me post.

But I'll get this week over with,

lets look at some of the charts on a higher level summary. First up, the dollar index, I've reposted some counts on the dollar and call the latest top at 88 a completion of a 5 waves for a major [I] of [A], and the fact that we have advanced for nearly 6 months, the dollar is in the middle of a long correctional wave [II], as long as 86.40 holds up, I expect the dollar to make a slightly lower low as the next probable support near 83 may be a very special area to land. as suggested from my last post, its both a 38% and 61% fibo retracement intersecting. If the dollar suddenly turns bullish and takes out the falling neckline, be on the radar that the correction is about to end and is in the early stages of the next big move up. Confirmation will come when the dollar and break above 86.4 imo

even if the dollar falls further below 83, it can still be seen as a correctional, simply the time relationship for a 6 month rally, we could be in for a prolong correction if needed, so wait for clues until the dollar bottoms or finds support before jumping in on the long side.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar070510.jpg


For gold, ever since gold struggled trying to break above 1250 in various attampts, it did throw me off a bit, but on the higher level, the count remains and I expect we have fully completed a sub wave .iii top and are beginning a sub .iv correction. Now here is the important notion, the bullish side would have gold remain above the current red neckline currently just above 1140 aand potentially will be a good place for gold to land and grab hold of buyers for the next low and can straddle towards a breakout. but the bearish side would have gold eventually breaking below 1140 and quite possibly retrace closer to 1006 before a big wave (v) begins this fall. So keep your ammos ready because potentially we can witness some great buying coming up in a month or two.

Key area is gold must not break 1006 or it will in validate the current count and suggest gold could be in a serious bearish mode than first thought. But right now Gold remains bullish in the higher trend degree and is in progress of a correction in the lower time frame.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold070510.jpg

Oil, If you recall weeks ago ever since oil dived to 67, I suggested a good strategy is to wait for oil to hit around 78-81 and go short, I guess we should have just stick to that idea, since that is exactly what happend, every move up was every bit a correctional pattern which lead to breakdown to the down side. What I thought was still a bullish move yet when oil produced another rise above 78, was quickly thrown away when 75.5 did not hold and never did provide the type of support I envisioned. Therefore oil is current in a bearish mode and quite possibly is ready to retest some of the major lows ahead. beggining with 67-69, if this area gives way, then next to look after is 60 oil. Right now I dont think I'll give it much of a lower target, I expect oil could soon decouple from the main market we'll just watch for signs that it does, so hang in there until oil finds a bottom.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil070510.jpg

Finally for Dow, as you can see, no much changed since my last count, but the latest top at 10600 can be viewed as a wave [II] correction, and we may be in a sub dividing wave [III] which should be strong, expecting a bit of a rally (because of a falling dollar), then we should hit the south side again, and again. We are in free falling mode, yes, but in steps, I dont think we will see new lows, but this correction is very much alive and expected many months ago, so no surprise there. No threat to the bearish view as long it remains under 10600 and especially the neckline which could very well be the next rejection point if price does climb back up that far.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow070510.jpg

[SilverRex]

one more chart on Natgas,

UNG, after a big rise on a very positive inventory release on thursday, followed by a big correction. but my view is that the steep retracement can be a correction off a an initial rise.

we have a confirm swing pt by producing two higher highs last week. So if the 40 cent rise in Natgas last week was the real deal, I Expect we will find our way back above 8.30 and continue to rise similar to the last 5 waves when UNG rose from 6.88 to 8.44 in an impulsive fashion.

however the above is the green path I am refering to, the red path is when the moment it breaks abveo 8.30 and it cannot turn it into support, then what that tells me is that the latest rise is corrective and we could be headed for a double bottom or slightly lower retest which points to the neckline currently sitting under 7.50,

regardless of direction I am still expect UNG to at least make a run above 8.30 then we will know more where it wants to go.

Right now I'll say watch 7.30 carefully, as long as this holds, then I'll continue to remain bullish until otherwise.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung070510.jpg

[sgouki]

Where are you of to SR? Somewhere where the weather the next day is actually predictable?
We're gonna miss you, but hopefully you bring your laptop for a quick open/close analysis :clap:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by sgouki
Where are you of to SR? Somewhere where the weather the next day is actually predictable?
We're gonna miss you, but hopefully you bring your laptop for a quick open/close analysis :clap:

heading to BC for about 9 days

[mr2mike]

Have a great holiday.

sgouki: You sell this morning on HNU or waiting to see what the week brings?

I'm on the fence but leaning to hit sell. Just headed on holiday too on Thurs so I'd rather go into that with a stock sell high and not have to worry about checking the net.

[5t3v3]

Anyone following SIO?
Any thoughts on today's dip? I can't find anything on it.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=CVE:SIO

[djfob]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Have a great holiday.

sgouki: You sell this morning on HNU or waiting to see what the week brings?

I'm on the fence but leaning to hit sell. Just headed on holiday too on Thurs so I'd rather go into that with a stock sell high and not have to worry about checking the net.

I've sold off half my position, gonna see what happens this week to decide what to do with the other.

[max_boost]

Oh dear, markets shaved off 1000pts but that's like 2000pts for me. :( :rofl:

[kaput]

.

[sgouki]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Have a great holiday.

sgouki: You sell this morning on HNU or waiting to see what the week brings?

I'm on the fence but leaning to hit sell. Just headed on holiday too on Thurs so I'd rather go into that with a stock sell high and not have to worry about checking the net.

I sold mine at the morning at +.40
I'm not sure if I'm reentering just yet. I guess I have an hour to decide. I might play tomorrow out. A part of me is telling me 2% down? Still 1 hour to decide.

[themack89]

Market is dick fucking around.. Very rarely do the commercials like to over extend moves to either up side or down side which is what makes me question this previous week on the broader market.

It makes sense that they want to choke out as many people as they can, and boy sure as hell they made it look like a stronger short last week just like a stronger long the week before.

My gut is tell me to wait for this week and see what happens, very rarely does a market gap through a low like it did on Wednesday and just keep hammering down without recovering. This is a 95% chance to fill that gap in my opinion. Looking for some strong green days next week (starting Tuesday tomorrow, because it was a US holiday).

[Commanderwiggin]

Originally posted by SilverRex


heading to BC for about 9 days

SOLD ALL MY POSITIONS IN EVERYTHING!...will wait 9 days until thinking about re-entering... but seriously have a good one!

[davidI]

Originally posted by themack89
Market is dick fucking around.. Very rarely do the commercials like to over extend moves to either up side or down side which is what makes me question this previous week on the broader market.

It makes sense that they want to choke out as many people as they can, and boy sure as hell they made it look like a stronger short last week just like a stronger long the week before.

My gut is tell me to wait for this week and see what happens, very rarely does a market gap through a low like it did on Wednesday and just keep hammering down without recovering. This is a 95% chance to fill that gap in my opinion. Looking for some strong green days next week (starting Tuesday tomorrow, because it was a US holiday).

I'm thinking the market may move up to fill that gap and then head lower. News hasn't been all that bad yet, but the unemployment numbers are brutal. The scary thing is that if this stimulus hasn't worked then I can see the 2nd dip of the "double dip" recession being worse than the first as the economy will seem unfixable. If throwing 700 billion at stimulating the US economy and a trillion at the EU economy doesn't get employment back up, what else can you do!?

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

spotted huge volume on pmt yesterday on the heels of a green close. Is this the signal that it is finally ready to make another major move? conisdering it has retested the breakout trendline and continued to find support at 5 dollars.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/pmt070610.jpg

[themack89]

Originally posted by davidI


I'm thinking the market may move up to fill that gap and then head lower. News hasn't been all that bad yet, but the unemployment numbers are brutal. The scary thing is that if this stimulus hasn't worked then I can see the 2nd dip of the "double dip" recession being worse than the first as the economy will seem unfixable. If throwing 700 billion at stimulating the US economy and a trillion at the EU economy doesn't get employment back up, what else can you do!?

I won't argue with that, you're probably right.

But I try not to confuse economic performance with stock market performance because often it just confuses me.

However, this is the short term investing thread, and my comment was based purely off of time in front of the screen and just intuition really. Market already aggressively buying, S&P back up to 1020+.

[davidI]

Originally posted by kaput
With the market pushing multi month lows, I'm debating a TSX index fund. Anyone in HXU? I can't decide if this is the start of the double dip or just another bump. The market seems pretty unsettled lately.

I've got a couple hundred shares of XIU. I didn't catch the very bottom of this little correction but still have a good price. In a volatile market, I wouldn't want to play one of the leveraged ETFs unless you're day-trading it. Over time and with volatility, you'll just be eroding your profits due to the 2x leverage and daily settles.


Originally posted by themack89


I won't argue with that, you're probably right.

But I try not to confuse economic performance with stock market performance because often it just confuses me.

However, this is the short term investing thread, and my comment was based purely off of time in front of the screen and just intuition really. Market already aggressively buying, S&P back up to 1020+.

Yep, my short term play is to make some money as we fill that gap and then likely sell out. Day / Swing trading is great, but it never hurts to look at the longer term trends. A lot of market movement is from the value investors and if their long-term outlook is bearish, it's going to hurt your short-term trades!

[davidI]

Paramount converted to Perpetual Energy Inc. effective July 1, 2010 for anyone looking for their ticker. It's now PMT, rather than PMT.UN.

[kaput]

.

[davidI]

My IB account couldn't find PMT.UN so I did some hunting and found this:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=CA%3APMT

[997TT]

finally up a bit on tck and bnk.... I agree that this market could head lower. Would love another mini run so i can exit both positions....

[sgouki]

Anybody switch over to hnd for the 6% rise? Hoping for positive numbers on ung tomorrow.

[nobb]

^You mean switch to HNU? UNG did a nice little peak today followed by a sudden drop. Looks like it hit bottom at 7.84 and could possibly go positive once again?

[sgouki]

No I mean hnu was up in the morning and now in the red. I you bought into hnd you woulda caught a quick sweet 6-8%. I'm thinking it's good to jump back on hnu and ung after this correction.

[nobb]

Anyone jump on the HNU wagon this afternoon? Im still uncertain as to whether UNG has truly hit bottom. Might give it another 30 min - 1 hour to see what it does before jumping in.

[djayz]

I'm still holding my positions in HNU from a couple weeks back.
Waiting for the low 5's of NG before cashing out.

[sgouki]

I jumped back in. Even if it pans down tomorrow, the overall picture is still going to be up over the week.

[nobb]

Yea what the heck...jumped into HNU at 6.35.

Worried to hold HNU too long though, it seems that around July/Aug nat gas prices start to go down? From last 3 year's trend anyways...

[sgouki]

HNU is definitely something you can catch great gains over a short period. Like you switched between hnu and hnd, you can average 5% a day which for me, that's really good. Caught an article for UNG which says during this time of hurricanes, it'd be a great buy.
If natgas is definitely on a uptrend and you're lazy to trade daily then you could just leave it in. Just there's gonna be some days where you lose all your gains from your previous week and get it all back next week. Several ways to play it.

[SilverRex]

a quick glance on gold, looks like gold is near a short term bottom now that its in the 118x range. the lowest I see at the moment would be 1180.

look for price to begining to bottom out and will make a counter trend rally back up to complete a wave (iv), since the latest patterns appears to be a sub dividing 5 waves down, I expect we have yet another move down to a price lower than 1180 (possibly the target at 1140-1150 that I talked about weeks ago) may be the place to land after all.

make or break now lies at 1225, without this being broken, continue to short the rallies

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold070710.jpg

[KappaSigma]

For those who bought into UTS lately, a nice buyout for them.

[davidI]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
For those who bought into UTS lately, a nice buyout for them.

I'm had UTS at $1.60 and I held it for ages expecting a buyout but Total wouldn't make their move. Damn. Wish I'd held out longer!! Sad thing is, Total probably would have saved a few hundred million had they just gone for it a year go!

[SilverRex]

ung made a lower low than yesterday, if it is to rise again, wait for confimation for ung to get back above 7.94, otherwise its currently in a danger zone testing its 7.8 support, a break here wont be good either

[nobb]

Does the pre-market UNG pricing ever tell us anything useful? Pre-market UNG was good this morning at 6am but after about 7:30 it started to head low. Unfortunately, HNU doesnt open until 8am so I couldnt really do anything but watch.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[997TT]

got my 10% on TCK ... guess i should sell since that was my target.

BNK .. come on baby.

[nobb]

Uh oh...looks like UNG is breaking down even further. Does not look good.

[djayz]

Anybody have inventory report data for NG?

I'm guessing a bunch of us are stuck with big loses on HNU :(

[nobb]

Weekly inventory report here, released every thursday morning:
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

There's a 78bcf excess this week. I guess us HNU holders will just have to wait it out. Hopefully NG will make another rally up before heating season begins.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by djayz
Anybody have inventory report data for NG?

I'm guessing a bunch of us are stuck with big loses on HNU :(



Nat gas is in freefall after the EIA reported a much larger than expected build up in natgas inventories: the Energy Information Administration reported an increase by 78 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 2. Expectations were for a 70 bcf increase, while the last week reading was at 60 bcf. The result is a freefall in the price of nattie which has now plunged 5% for the day, and is back to early June levels.

[kaput]

.

[djfob]

Got lucky and sold hnu at this weeks high. Probably get back in here soon once the dust settles.

[KappaSigma]

PMT is actually doing quite while even though gas has fallen quite a bit.

[kaput]

.

[nobb]

How do you HNU'ers decide when to sell at a loss or attempt to ride it out? Do you guys normally set thresholds?

[997TT]

ya been burnt too many times on the 2x etf's ... great ST play but i prefer stocks now.

used my tck money to re-invest in RBI-T at yesterdays close.

hoping this pullback in gold is a buyin opp.

still holding LIF.UN and BNK

[themack89]

I think you guys are being presented with a good opportunity to get long on Natural Gas again.

It's bullshit after consolidating for that long setting a price floor that it would fake a rally and head to new lows. It's most likely just market jizzing around so bigger money can load up some contracts.

Keep in mind June / July is area of yearly lows on NG.

So get scared away if you want to by trendlines and stuff, but the trade is strong to the long side.

Guys gotta start thinking about the mechanics behind things like head fakes and breakouts etc. You gotta try to put yourself in their heads and ask 'what are they trying to do?'.

*EDIT.. Might as well add my general consensus:
LONG: Market, Copper, Oil
SHORT: Gold

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/7577/lolung.jpg

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89

*EDIT.. Might as well add my general consensus:
LONG: Market, Copper, Oil
SHORT: Gold


What time line is your forecast? Days? Weeks? Months?

What events will confirm or disprove your trading thesis?

Thx.


http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_oUc6WpOAwto/SQOeEJouIiI/AAAAAAAABX4/wnceDtSvW98/s400/080102_$B_fallingKnivesTN.gif

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs


What time line is your forecast? Days? Weeks? Months?

What events will confirm or disprove your trading thesis?

Thx.

Usually weeks.. Around 1 to 4+. Sometimes it stretches into months.

A 'disprove' of my thesis is just when it looks like its gonna keep moving against me, theres no hardcore ins and outs, its all. My general rule is look for a big move (such as the one on gold) and keep watching until it starts to top out, and then short it for example. This way you 1) get a good price to short and 2) know theres not "alot" of room for it to go against you, at least for the time being.

I call it movement sustainability, its a good measure for alot of things except individual stocks (I'll let you figure that one out.. cough BP, GS, RIG, NFLX, AAPL cough)

But think of it this way.. You want to buy house. House costs 500,000 today, a year ago it was 700,000 and two years ago it was 400,000. Relatively speaking, if you were to buy the house today it would probably only move against you 100,000 if it were to come to that, but on the other hand it may go up 200,000.

Replace word 'house' with 'market' or 'oil' or 'gold' etc.

Where we are right now: You are getting a good selling price on gold, you are getting a good buying price on copper oil and market.

This is how I make decisions.. My first post in this thread was a short on Sugar on Jan. 28th I believe, go take a look what happened or check my post history lol.

[davidI]

^ Sounds like you're basically just using historical support and resistance, no?

[themack89]

Originally posted by davidI
^ Sounds like you're basically just using historical support and resistance, no?

If that's what you wanna call it.

Always questioning movement sustainability though.

E.g. It's not logical for Oil to tank to $60 just because it traded below $70 in a downtrend. Think about the real demand for it.. (This is exactly why I don't do it for stocks, because you simply don't know. Stocks have traded below book value in the past, etc).

I think the number one thing I wait for on the charts is sideways trading, it is 'usually' indicative of a topping or bottoming process (not so much in the stock market though unless they are significant prices, e.g. all time highs/lows).

I dunno how to explain it entirely (theres also some intuition involved, like when I wanted to long oil at 70 before it even reached 70, and then it hit 67 afterwards but still remaining long), just get me to look at something and I'll tell you what I'm looking at and how I approach it.

[davidI]

Originally posted by themack89

just get me to look at something and I'll tell you what I'm looking at and how I approach it.

How about XIU or the TSX?

[themack89]

Originally posted by davidI


How about XIU or the TSX?

XIU Really hasn't done much of anything for the past year, so it would be a little silly to think it's gonna do a lot now.

Relative to where it's price has been, the mid to high 16's is a great price to pick some up at, and the high 17's is a great price to short / sell at. Again it tracks large caps, so don't expect it to be going up when market is going down, etc. (you knew that).

Since it's here at 17 and not in the super optimal buy price, I would pick up a smaller size than you normally would. And then when it hits high 17's or low 18's just wait to see if it's gonna top out again (which it likely will) and then just reverse. No point in going all out here obviously because there's nothing juicy that is set up, just a channel play for the last year so thats how you have to approach it.

In a nutshell: buy 16.50ish (if you can) and sell 18.00ish (if you can). If it's in the middle like it is now, it's best just to wait. Let the market come to you, don't chase it.

TSx Is generally same as the market which I have already given my rigmarole on, so I will explain it via S&P500 (which is what I watch). The other week it really had no reason to gap through through those multi month lows and keep tanking; judging by it's behavior previously of doing a quick few heard up days after chopping around doing nothing I kinda just figured that the manipulators just want to trap as many people as they can. It doesn't make sense for them to over extend a move to either the up or down side because they make money either way (it's easier to send a market up 10% and then down 10% instead of just straight up 20%).

It's not as cookie cutter as XIU, but the same rule applies. Wait for prices to depress (like they have for the last while) and then go sideways (which they have for the last month and a half), and then it would be okay to dip your toes in. Don't be scared by movements like last week, manipulators do this shit on purpose like a 'death cross' or a 'break of the low' just to fuck with people. They are in control of that market, so you're at their mercy. Think about it from a business perspective--they do that stuff for a living, so they'd rather take as much money from you as they can, the easiest way to do this is to scare and confuse you. And it's not easy to send a market up or down in the same direction forever, that's called exhausting a move. You can't be right all the time, following basic rules will help improve odds though.

So always remember for this kinda stuff, watch and wait are very important. You see a big move, wait for it to exhaust itself aka start moving sideways, and then look to take the other side (not for individual stocks obviously I have mentioned this).

[KappaSigma]

For all the nay sayers on BP, it just touched $36 this morning pre-market.

A nice pickup in the $27 range a couple weeks back.

[themack89]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
For all the nay sayers on BP, it just touched $36 this morning pre-market.

A nice pickup in the $27 range a couple weeks back.

BP Is still in the headlines.. You're playing with fire on that one bud.

Go back to GS instead

[nobb]

BP is still risky. I wonder if it would be a good idea to pick up some Apache shares right now as their share price is low and there may be future plans to pick up some of BP's assets.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66A14N20100712

[e36bmw///]

mm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89


BP Is still in the headlines.. You're playing with fire on that one bud.

Go back to GS instead

BP is landing the relief well right now. Thats why RIG, BP and APC are all doing well over the last week.


APC is kind of ricky because it has not been confirmed wheterh or not they will have any liability for the disaster. They own part of the field but they were not the operator, BP should* have to take responsibility. If its confirmed that APC is not liable then WHAM BAM< jump on that sucker.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Exxon mobil might buy BP


Source?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[8Ball]

Originally posted by broken_legs



Source?

Some guys on the ctrain :rolleyes:

[extm88]

terrible source, not to mention no comments from either company + BP is sellin 12B in assests to help with the spill...sounds like they are making pro active moves to keep things going!

[themack89]

What does anyone think of building short positions on NFLX? It's gonna be another angel of death most likely.

[997TT]

gonna be a great start to the day.... i think gold is looking good to make a nice run.

Added SLW to my RBI position as ST gold plays.

[KappaSigma]

CAN the next VEN?

[JDMMAN]

For those who've been trading in O&G service related stocks. What's your views on the following two:

Calmena (CEZ.TO) [use to be Blackwatch; many board members are ex. Precision Drilling]

and Horizon North Logistics (HNL)?

I'm looking to pick some up for a hold in the short term (1yr or less)

[e36bmw///]

nm

[projekz]

BP making some nice gains right now...

[themack89]

Originally posted by themack89
I think you guys are being presented with a good opportunity to get long on Natural Gas again.

It's bullshit after consolidating for that long setting a price floor that it would fake a rally and head to new lows. It's most likely just market jizzing around so bigger money can load up some contracts.

Keep in mind June / July is area of yearly lows on NG.

So get scared away if you want to by trendlines and stuff, but the trade is strong to the long side.

Guys gotta start thinking about the mechanics behind things like head fakes and breakouts etc. You gotta try to put yourself in their heads and ask 'what are they trying to do?'.

*EDIT.. Might as well add my general consensus:
LONG: Market, Copper, Oil
SHORT: Gold

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/7577/lolung.jpg

I think it is going to run..

http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/7787/lawldawgs.png

[djfob]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow nat gas just shot up like a rocket!

I'm assuming good inventory results.


Guys still holding onto PMT.UN since it has converted to Perpetual Energy? Considering selling half my holdings since it looks like dividends are now 0.05.

[mr2mike]

I was waiting for this NG spike. I mean the heat waves down east had to draw inventories down at some point

[tryingtobebest1]

where is SR, i thought that he went for a week or so! I need his review on the market