Official Short-term Investments Thread

[broken_legs]

I love logging in once a day and checking if my orders filled. :)


APC Aug 45 Calls - Bought at 3.00 & 3.45, just filled at 6.75

[Hi-Psi]

Very big gains for BP today! Next 48 hours are critical for them and stockholders. If it holds then I think it would be time to pick up!

[sgouki]

That's true. I need SR's input before I jump back into anything. I miss that guy :(

[nobb]

Yup, SR's input is definitely much appreciated. Gives alot of useful advice to the community, never expects anything in return. We should chip in and take that guy out for dinner/lunch sometime lol.

[kaput]

.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[davidI]

Originally posted by kaput


Is google finance effed? I'm seeing a big spike towards the end the day yesterday which immediately reversed first thing this morning. It's flat at best today :dunno:

That's just the big boys f*cking with you. They ran up the entire market at close yesterday on low volume and then crashed 'er down today.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///

wow that sick

do you only trade options?


Well lately I've just been taking out small positions in options. Lately I haven't had a single losing trade.

APC to me was obvious - it had to try and fill the gap

I was in that trade early and I was down about 50% at the beginning... Then it came back :)

Im still holding half of my RIG AUG 55 Calls... Im so mad because i was up 100% on those and I didnt sell - missed my sell order by 20 cents!... Sold half at 20% profit a couple days ago, still holding the rest at break even right now.

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs



Well lately I've just been taking out small positions in options. Lately I haven't had a single losing trade.

APC to me was obvious - it had to try and fill the gap

I was in that trade early and I was down about 50% at the beginning... Then it came back :)

Im still holding half of my RIG AUG 55 Calls... Im so mad because i was up 100% on those and I didnt sell - missed my sell order by 20 cents!... Sold half at 20% profit a couple days ago, still holding the rest at break even right now.

I'm guessing blocks of 10 contracts?

I like to measure options trading in terms of net gain against dollar invested. It is misleading to the average Joe when you tell him you made 20% or 100%, because he is thinking $10k into $20k.. lol. But if you have the balls to dump $10k into naked options right now, then props.

I just like to say I made a dollar on 1000 shares (10 contracts), to keep it in perspective. It could be like from 0.50 to 1.50 which is still a dollar, or 0.05 to 1.05 which is still a dollar. But one is 200% gain and the other is 2100% gain. In reality though your 0.05 contract would only go to .10 or .15, so to compensate you buy 100 contracts instead of 10. ETC You know what I'm getting at. :nut:

Good trading anyways, a profit is a success.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89


I'm guessing blocks of 10 contracts?


Depends on how much the contract costs...



I like to measure options trading in terms of net gain against dollar invested. It is misleading to the average Joe when you tell him you made 20% or 100%, because he is thinking $10k into $20k.. lol. But if you have the balls to dump $10k into naked options right now, then props.

I just like to say I made a dollar on 1000 shares (10 contracts), to keep it in perspective. It could be like from 0.50 to 1.50 which is still a dollar, or 0.05 to 1.05 which is still a dollar. But one is 200% gain and the other is 2100% gain. In reality though your 0.05 contract would only go to .10 or .15, so to compensate you buy 100 contracts instead of 10. ETC You know what I'm getting at. :nut:

Good trading anyways, a profit is a success.

Thanks.

No way I could trade like you though. I don't set out to 'make a dollar' on a trade. I set out to make a percentage. Its risk reward. Looking at things in terms of a dollar amount return is too difficult for me.

[SilverRex]

alright im back from holidays, let see if things are still on track.

lets start with the dollar index, if I recall correctly, my view was that the dollar remains in a correction, and may be a steep one folks, it continues to sell lower and lower, price is currently holding just above the previous wave (iii) support, no buy signal just yet, it would be a good place to bottom but require more confirmation such as a double bottom or divergence of some sort, weaker view suggest it may (can) still trace out the low 80s, in order for the dollar to begin a bullish take over, it will have to break out a nearby down trend line so far just under 84, then another break above mid 84 to clear the air waves, until then, dont expect any significant reversal, all rallies may be short lived. we will monitor it as it finds a bottom.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071910.jpg

ok for oil, ever since oil broke down and was unable to form a support to move higher, it has straddle mostly side ways, I continue to expect oil to straddle which could lead to another sell off. While according to cyclist, oil isnt heading to 10 as most technical expert would suggest, I dont want that either for the sake of the economy and the chaos it might bring, so I will view our current economy stanze more of a stagflation, where only certain sectors will survive yet others will continue to produce new lows. Energy in my books would be one of them, I wont say oil is out of the woods just yet, so let time be on yourside and wait for a good price, swing trading would be best at this stage in time for oil.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil071910.jpg

and gold, gold reminas on tract to complete this wave iv correction. so long as 1131 holds, wait for gold to find a bottom in the next few weeks, once bottomed, I expect gold to make another rally to new record highs. The only problem I have with gold is, unless your holding physical, you can expect some wild swings a head if the market does sell off in a mini panic, just like 2008, my expecation is that once gold completes a higher high possilby some where in the 1280-1350 range, it could create a huge sell down due to margin calls and liqudation for cash imo, its the bottom it forms and the next major rally into 2011 that could be worth waiting for. So dont scale in all your position just yet, continue to hold onto some ammo for such a possibility to unfold in the sept/oct time frame.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold071910.jpg

[SilverRex]

looking at PMT, the symbol has changed, but outlook remains the same. anything at or below 5 dollar continues to be a bargin for PMT going forward, while Natgas is quite volatile, you can see how strong pmt is holding well above 5 dollars.

looking at the volume, notice the huge buying volume recently? could suggest the recent area to be a very strong bottom to be.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/pmt071910.jpg

[sgouki]

YES. Welcome back SilverRex. Hope your trip was nice and relaxing!

[SilverRex]

how can you look at pmt without looking at natgas/ung as well.

from my last post on natgas, I expected ung to find a bottom some where near the neckline and it was a scary moment last week, as it appears to have broken below the neckline which of course initially was bearish, but it held up nicely and we are right back above it. which could point to a fake break down. I am still going to view the count as corrective and quite possibly have finished our wave (ii) bottom correction. if natgas is ready for a big up move, we should see price break higher and test ung at 8 dollars, perhaps give us a iH&S for a take off, once price breaks and hold above 8 we will know more confidently that nat gas is ready for a wave (iii) north.

The 7.23 bottom that it achieved last week was right on the 7.29 support which is a 78.6% fibo retracement, it has gone as low as it should, any lower I would have to recount entirely, and perhaps jump on the wagon that Natgas may be headed for one blow off low under ung 6.72, but until then, I remain optimistic.

low level ung suggest this weeks action is so far corrective as well, we should see ung at least test last week's high near 7.8,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung071910.jpg

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by SilverRex
looking at PMT, the symbol has changed, but outlook remains the same. anything at or below 5 dollar continues to be a bargin for PMT going forward, while Natgas is quite volatile, you can see how strong pmt is holding well above 5 dollars.

looking at the volume, notice the huge buying volume recently? could suggest the recent area to be a very strong bottom to be.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/pmt071910.jpg

What do you think PMT will reach in the next 6 months?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


What do you think PMT will reach in the next 6 months?

the extreme bullish case I hear about pmt is that it will double by summer end.

so conservatively I can expect it to do that in 6 months time.

mean while, NG inventories this week could be a very interesting setup.

http://www.firstenercastfinancial.com/e_news.php

is suggesting they are expecting the numbers to be 55, if NG falls anywhere near that number it would be very bullish signal.

so keep your eyes open on thursday morning.

[sgouki]

UNG is fluctuating like crazy.

[mr2mike]

HNU is a wild ride. Holding on. Just got back to black today in it. What will Thurs bring? :nut:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[extm88]

SilverRex, short term lets say 3 months would you hold PMT or BP?
Im already in on UNG at $7.40 and feel this is a longgg term thing I shouldnt touch.

[themack89]

Just wanted to throw this out there:

Who knows how valuable a move from 4 to 5 actually is in natural gas? lol. Was just looking at the recent price movement past few months.

1 Contract with NG, move 4 to 5 is worth $10k on $5k margin.

Just throwing it out there... :dunno:

[broken_legs]

you could also risk no money on margin and buy some UNG calls and triple it in a couple days.

Lots of ways to get leverage.

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs
you could also risk no money on margin and buy some UNG calls and triple it in a couple days.

Lots of ways to get leverage.

I do alot of option pop plays too, but that wasn't my point.

I'm not talking about getting leverage.. I'm just trying to put it in perspective, its a pretty big move. But people might not recognize that fact if you're trading for 1$ gains on UNG lol.

Futures over options does have liquidity advantages which is why I prefer it, most of the time if you're orders are getting filled its mostly because the MM's have run through you and not because someone actually punched you haha. (also if you have to do huge volume it spanks you pretty bad with commissions.. I felt that pain when I was trading 500 blocks of Citi options lol).

Speaking of which.. maybe time to pick up a grand or so of the Sept 5's on Citi.. hmmmmmmm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

it will be interesting comes 8:30, we will see how the inventory holds up, ung 7.8 and natgas at 4.65 is key area, if it does break, it must become support

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
how was the vacation SR?

it was awsome, found it too short.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[sgouki]

UNG broke through or touched 7.80 a few times but only for a very brief moment. Think that can hold?

[whodiman]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
hey guys
A buddy of mine told me about BXI

"suppose to hit $5 by the end of summer"

anyone heard of this company?

i remember this company at 1.25 and thinking it was done making its run.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by themack89


I do alot of option pop plays too, but that wasn't my point.

I'm not talking about getting leverage.. I'm just trying to put it in perspective, its a pretty big move. But people might not recognize that fact if you're trading for 1$ gains on UNG lol.

Futures over options does have liquidity advantages which is why I prefer it, most of the time if you're orders are getting filled its mostly because the MM's have run through you and not because someone actually punched you haha. (also if you have to do huge volume it spanks you pretty bad with commissions.. I felt that pain when I was trading 500 blocks of Citi options lol).

Speaking of which.. maybe time to pick up a grand or so of the Sept 5's on Citi.. hmmmmmmm

Have you tried the future options? Crude futures options are pretty liquid. Also how out of the money are you purchasing? How far along the curve are you purchasing your futures? Have you tried any volatility plays?

What are you risk metrics?

On a side note: NEVER trade anything on the Montreal exchange as it is the most illiquid piece of shit ever...

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Anybody know why EnCana is down so much the past couple of days? :dunno:

Their quarterly report wasn't that bad, they have shed like 8% since Tuesday.

Looks like a good deal to me, I think I might put in an order. There has to be a correction coming soon.

They just talked about Encana on Market Call and they said it's because they've announced that they are increasing spending which always makes people weary but they also said not to worry that they are still a great stock and that in the long term you have nothing to worry about.

[Sugarphreak]

....

[themack89]

Originally posted by themack89

*EDIT.. Might as well add my general consensus:
LONG: Market, Copper, Oil
SHORT: Gold

From July 10th..

Seems like it's all starting to develop now.

S&P Up 30 pts
Copper Up .11 (decent for copper)
Crude Up 9 bucks from a long at 70 that i was being stubborn about a few pages ago, teasing a run to 85 or 90
Gold down a bit, still stagnant

Hopefully one of them develops into a big move. Would love to see gold tank, I think its so much sucker buying up here.

[SilverRex]

Alright a new week ahead of us, lets see how the charts line up.

Starting with the dollar index, as pointed out from my last post, the dollar remains in a down trend, while initially we might have seen a bottom out process form during last week, it does not appear it is remotely close to forming a bottom, with a immediate neckline near a breaking point, now the dollar is ready to head lower. Once this neckline breaks down, I am expecting the dollar to at least test the 79-81 area for the next major support. Will this be a steep retracement? we just have to wait and see, until then, not a good idea to go long until you see confirmation such as the 10/20 EMA crosses over or price breaks above 83.50, therefore the dollar continues to be bearish seeking out a bottom this week.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar072610.jpg

For gold, not much has changed. the 5 waves down should only produce part of a correction, still expecting a counter trend rally above 1200+ perhaps 1220-1230? then 5 more waves down. Conservatively I dont expect 1131 to break right now. That could very well be the bottom by the end of august then gold should begin to make another 5 waves move to a new high.

In the event 1131 breaks, immediate target should be near 1000-1050. So watch keep your eyes on these number for a good entry point.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold072610.jpg

and last but not least, oil, chart remains within my expecation for a higher high, the drop of a wave .b did not move down as much as I would like, however oil should soon find A top then fall back down towards 70. For the moment, expecting oil to eventually retest 70 or below. How low it will drop will depend on how bad the market reacts, or how soon oil can decouple from the main market and turn into a stagflation eviornment as cyclist pointed out. If your thinking long oil, I dont think its time to load up just yet. But the time will be ripe soon. the current market continues to favor day traders.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil072610.jpg

[SilverRex]

just going to throw the dow chart up, for a while I was expect the dow (after making new lows at 9600) to produce a counter trend rally back towards 10600.

The only question is now if it will make a higher high to 10600+ then fall? or would the top be in sight this week. Either way, based on how other markets line up, the drop is coming. again now the best of times to go long unless your day trading. Market cycles or counts all point to a big drop in august.

The theme here is, a big drop is still to come, but not to new lows (<6500) so hang on. Key is to invest in the sectors such as energy/food because I too believe those will be the area where money will find its way into when the market enters a hyperstagflationary mode.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow072610.jpg

[SilverRex]

using UNG as reference, it has to move up now or risk testing the 7.23 bottom. Currently my view still stands, need price to break above 7.80 and turn it into support to clear the air, then it will be confirmed if price can break above 8.3

positive note is that price remains above the longer term neckline (thicker red) as well as taken beyond the declining neckline if you connect the to and wave (b) high.

Netgative view is that 10/20 EMA remains bearish, and requires a cross over as another confirmation we are ready for a new up trend.

hopefully this view stands and price does emerge to the upside pretty soon.

PS. one interesting thing I wanted to mention, from my experience, when a fake break occurs following a breakout in the opposite direction usually indicates the real trend unfolding. Looking at UNG notice how we have a fake freak down below the neckline at 7.23? then it reversed and now price have since crossed over a different neckline which indicates bullish momentum when it pushed to 7.87. Now unless price remains to straddle further, price have since retested the neckline that it broke last week and we should be ready to take off imo. We'll see if this is the case here.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung072610.jpg

[SilverRex]

is another angle of the same chart. if we can clear above 7.80 to force the rH&S to take shape then target a retest of 8.30-8.5 (ultimate resistance is situated at 8.5) imo if we can take this out it would open up 9.25-9.50immediately.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung072610b.jpg

[themack89]

Originally posted by themack89
What does anyone think of building short positions on NFLX? It's gonna be another angel of death most likely.

Quoted July 12th.

Lawldogs.

[mr2mike]

Great analysis on NG, SR.
Love to hear other's "opinions".
Thanks as always!

[SilverRex]

pmt back under 5, last chance to get under 5. chart is ready to take off soon

[nobb]

Originally posted by SilverRex
pmt back under 5, last chance to get under 5. chart is ready to take off soon

What's your basis for this?

[tryingtobebest1]

What is your source on PMT??? Ia this stock is really only half month old? Or google finance is laughting at me!??)))

And another VERY IMPORTANT QESTION to SR, and everyone who might know

If i have stocks on my account and i apply for a student loan since going to SAIT this fall will they found out about it? Should i transfer everything to my parents or what!???
Need to know asap!

[Beerking]

Anyone here sign up for David Rosenbergs (Gluskin Sheff) "Breakfast with Dave" daily letters.

I signed up a few months ago, and I've got to say that the write ups he does are very well done and he points out everything you need to know without having to skim through every financial paper of the day.

He is a perma-bear, but when you look back at the last 10 years, don't blame him.

Kind of hard not to think that a double dip is unavoidable, plus another swift tanking in the indexes.

[themack89]

Originally posted by themack89


From July 10th..

...

Gold down a bit, still stagnant

Hopefully one of them develops into a big move. Would love to see gold tank, I think its so much sucker buying up here.

From July 26th

lol enter 20 pt drop in a day.

Back to 1090 or lower would be sweet.

[broken_legs]

Rosie is the shit.
:thumbsup:

[Rat Fink]

.

[KappaSigma]

Gas looks to be breaking out over the last few days. Hopefully it sustains the gains and pushes upward over the next couple of months.

[SilverRex]

NG looking good, for UNG 7.8 must now turn into support, not a huge fan of the gap this morning. So potentially we could see it retest 7.8, lets see if it now has enough juice to retest 8.30 and break 8.5 for a another technical breakout

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by SilverRex
NG looking good, for UNG 7.8 must now turn into support, not a huge fan of the gap this morning. So potentially we could see it retest 7.8, lets see if it now has enough juice to retest 8.30 and break 8.5 for a another technical breakout

Based on estimates, what do you think PMT will hit by the end of August and also September?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


Based on estimates, what do you think PMT will hit by the end of August and also September?

well its hard to say what target it will hit by aug/sept, but the bullish view on the street is a double by the end of summer. That probably requires NG to take off as the catalyst.

use the 10/20 EMA as your trend, especially if it breaks above 5.90, then I'll start taking profit off the table when the 10/20 turns bearish, but ride it as high as you can while it continues up

[SilverRex]

update

ung 10/20 EMA is about to cross = bullish

as long as 7.8 holds (or we do not have any daily closes below this) time to buy on dips next up is 8.5 then taking out 8.8 to open up 9.25

[mr2mike]

Those, in HNU, its good to see it bounce off the $6.50 line again. Makes this gap up more sustainable I think.
Also it supports what SR is saying with UNG.

Edit: Damn, new support is 6.30

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

ok a quick mid week update on gold, as someone pointed out, it appears the low of the range is coming early. looking at the chart I posted, my expecation was a low some where in the 1131-1140 area, however if we want to sync this along with cyclist's low in the 3rd week of August. the idea would mean gold needs to turn around in the short term then fall for a lower low. However the only thing that kind of bothers me right now is the time relationship. Knowing the last big correction from 1226 to 1050 was about 2 months. If this is a smaller wave 4 correction, it should not exceed 2 months to seek out a bottom. If it does, then chances are something else is on the table (a recount may be needed) or perhaps we are in a much steeper correction than first thought, that would certainly open up the 1050-1066 area without much effort.

but until I see 1131 taking out, my bias remains on the horizon that in the month of august, I am expecting a bottom out process that mirrors the last significant drop to 1050. and to confirm this, look at the stoch divergence, right now we are simply making the 1st turn if you look at the bottom of the chart.

The fact that the entire drop is quite linear from 1260s to where we are now, we might still be in for a counter trend rally of 50-70 dollars, then drop again towards the end of august. that would line up well to cyclist's projection.

rememeber right now gold is in a down trend, 10/20 EMA is bearish, and a sharp trendline is holding price down as well, its not quite the time to take a long position unless for day trading only, until we see some sort of rH&S or double dip bounce off a certain support, it remains to suggest further downside is possible.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold072910.jpg

A quick look at UNG as well, lots of possibility, we remain in the camp of both bulls and bears virtually tied, however bulls have a 1st lead advantage by taking out the 7.8 resistance over head and remaining above the rising neckline. For the moment my bullish view is that as long as 7.8 remains a support, we should see buy on dips to begin as we inch higher. 10/20 was very close to give a buy signal had ung not corrected so much yesterday, as I first thought, the gap left at 7.8 was the concern and is currently being fulfilled.

Dont forget strong NG season is upon us, the longer we linger without a new low, the further it supports the bottom is in back in apr/may

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung072910.jpg

[SilverRex]

a bit of a pull back today yet again despite inventory still looks good imo, I am expecting this to be a flat ABC correction perhaps still trying to fill the gap completely near 7.8 or since this is a wave iv correction, it can also be of 5 waves ABCDE which means we would continue to straddle between a rising neckline below 8 to 8.2

again 7.8 must hold and we will be in for a good rally soon

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung0729b10.jpg

[sgouki]

So far so good with hnu and ung. At what point would you suggest selling and waiting for the next wave up. It's been going positive for the past 4 days straight.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by sgouki
So far so good with hnu and ung. At what point would you suggest selling and waiting for the next wave up. It's been going positive for the past 4 days straight.

like i said from my charts, as long as 7.8 holds, continue to buy the dips until a breakout towards 8.3-8.5

obviously if the big move is yet to come, my eyes are still set at 9.2-9.5 area

[SilverRex]

a quick update on the dollar index, it appears the bottoming process is on track, dollar has just made a double bottom on the 50% fibo support near 81.4 and quite possibly is setting up to bounce here. confirmation with price breaking above 82.2 and as such you can take advantage and buy on dip at least for price to retest the 38% fibo near 83.20

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar073010.jpg

[SilverRex]

here is another confirmation for Natgas/UNG 10/20 officially crossed over to be bullish. now its buy on dips for Natgas as to where it will go it is hard to say, but a good bet is 8.30 and 8.50 wont hold this down for too long, my target is 9.25 then we will see what happens.

if price suddenly surges and you fail to get in, either look for gap filling for re-entry or the 10 EMA to act as a strong support a good indicator the trend is in tact, but as soon as the 10 EMA gives away, it usually means something is about to turn or perhaps falling into another correction/shake out.

PS. weekly chart MACD now opening up again which is bullish, there is currently a trendline that could hold this down which points to 8.3 to be the ultimate make or break point. So breaking above or closing the week above 8.3 is another confirmation that the new up swing is underway.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung073010.jpg

[themack89]

Originally posted by themack89
I think you guys are being presented with a good opportunity to get long on Natural Gas again.

It's bullshit after consolidating for that long setting a price floor that it would fake a rally and head to new lows. It's most likely just market jizzing around so bigger money can load up some contracts.

Keep in mind June / July is area of yearly lows on NG.

So get scared away if you want to by trendlines and stuff, but the trade is strong to the long side.

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/7577/lolung.jpg

From July 10, 20 days ago.

[SilverRex]

ok a quick update on ung before the long weekend (for me anyways)

not much change in my outlook, but I have revised the latest count, since realizing the sub 5 waves at first may have been counted incorrectly.

so lets go back to square one and call 6.72 as our bottom. If that holds true, then we still have a 5 wave completion to 8.84, (if you recall, I was expecting a very strong wave (ii) pull back, becaus of my mis-count. the wave (ii) came early, had I realize this sooner, I would have called for the wave (ii) correction to at least test the 50% or even the 78.6% fibo support which is typical after the completion of a significant wave (i)

that means 7.78 and 7.18 would have been good place to re-enter so far those level is exactly where it is trying to bottom.

add to the fact MACD is opening up, weekly MACD re-opened up, 10/20 EMA is now bullish. it is looking mighty well for NG to keep marching higher and higher. Remember because this wave (ii) is steep, then we can expect the next major correctional wave (iv) to be shallow, that suggest when NG does breakout into a strong move, it wont stop

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung073010b.jpg

[KappaSigma]

NG has hit $5.00.

Time for the bull to run!

[SilverRex]

just a quick update to start the week,

not too exciting for the dollar last week, dollar continues to be in a bearish trend and no buy signal was spotted. With current support at 81.40, if this does not hold the next support would be slightly under 80 in the 79.x area.

I continue to expect these two support levels to form the bottoming process needed to kick start dollar's next up move in the fall.

as for oil, the higher high is underway, look for oil to find a top between 81-83 then collasp, perhaps a high probability of seeing 70 oil once again would be my bet.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080210.jpg

as for NG, its moving up as expected. lets hope the count I suggested holds true and we continue to see higher highs. with UNG closing above 8.30 would be another bullish confirmation.

Finally gold, gold hasnt breaking the down trending neckline (in red) just yet, if it does not, then risk remains we are to see a lower low or a double bottom at the least. Then again, even if it does break and move higher, I believe we can still see a retest or drop towards the end of august, in summary, I would say gold is in the process of forming a bottom.This month would be a good month for gold to form such a bottom for the next leg up which should then take us up to yet another new high.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold080210.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

ok back from a canadian holiday,

both oil and gold is moving to my expecation, please see previous chart for comments.

a quick snap on the dollar lower level, as I have suggested, the dollar is STILL seeking a bottom and is now ready to test the 61% fibo near 79.7, this could quite possibly be the bottom we have been all waiting for, but even then the dollar will need quite a few confirmation before we can say it is ready to embark on a new trend. There is currently two overhead necklines (in red) that could potentially knock the dollar right back down. over time if the dollar is to bottom, it MUST take out these two trend line, having price close above these two lines will indicate the trend is about to change. So stay close and monitor them. Once the dollar reverses, that may be the catalyst for the market to nose dive imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar080310.jpg

and for Natgas, as I have stated from my previous comments on UNG. it needs to clear 8.3 for another technical breakout, and guess what. it got rejected exactly at 8.3, talk about a perfect resistance. imo, its only a matter of time until we take this out. right now price looks like it has corrected abit, and a bullish case would suggest it has gone down as far as it needs to, it should rally off the current bottom above 7.8 and begin another attampt to crack 8.3, worse case scenario has price testing our next line of support at 7.45 for now I'll use 7.45 as our make or break. So long 7.45 holds, I am going to suggest Natgas/UNG is ready to explode in a wave (iii) move that will be even more powerful then the previous rise from 6.88-8.84

initial target remains between 9.2-9.5

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung080310.jpg

[tryingtobebest1]

Hey sr is there any down side of TFSA??

And also I apply for a loan, and i have some stocs at the moment will they found out about that?

[997TT]

all this ETF talk has definatly peaked my interest ...haha
must resist ...

bought RBI.TO 2 weeks ago and just got taken out by Kinross. 12% gainer for me ...

add that to CLM, BNK (2x), TCK.B, LIF-UN and these 7-12% have been very nice.

now sitting 100% cash in my ST portfolio ... looking for the next "bargain"

[Red@8]

C'mon 997TT it wasn't that long ago that you and I were cursing ETF's together. I'm back lightly trading ETF's. I know you must miss the days of betting the wrong way on HNU.

[997TT]

Red, thanks for the reminder that I need to stay the fk away from any leveraged ETF. Lol

Looking at EAS.V for my next 7-12% bagger. Haven't bought yet and will post if I do.

[djayz]

NG Tanking...or are we filling a gap down low and returning for a rally?

I bought some HNU at 6.50 this morning in a hurry thinking I was going to miss out on the rally above 7.00 but looks like it went the other way.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[997TT]

My 2k order at 5.72 filled for EAS.V.
I think 6.25 is easy pickings as chart looks good imo. But may need news to get it thru its 50 day MA.
9% if it does hit 6.25.

[KappaSigma]

Long term hold on DirectCash Income Fund (Public, TSE:DCI.UN)???

Solid dividend, growing and in a service that is needed.

[997TT]

C'mon gold ... touched 1200 overnight.

[SilverRex]

UNG may be ready to resume making a move north. if we can crack above 7.90 and hold above, a breakout should occur beyond 7.95

[mr2mike]

Quite the pull back in HNU yesterday. Bust still in there, in the black.

I watching Suncor closely as they're related to Oil mostly. But they are at resistance and might just sell if there is no sign of breaking out of it.

[SilverRex]

looks like the 7.9x is the key area to get Natgas going again,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung080410.jpg

[D-Xu]

I need to exchange Canadian Dollars for US Dollars, and so I was wondering what you guys think about the Canadian Dollar.

http://thenewtraders.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/6c_8_5_2010.jpg

It seems as if the Canadian Dollar is in a strong uptrend, coming off a double bottom and breaking through resistance at around 0.98. I outline more of my reasons here:

http://thenewtraders.wordpress.com/2010/08/05/canadian-dollar/

I won't need to exchange until December by the latest, but I've been burned the last couple of times (last exchanged @ around 0.95 in June) and I'm REALLY tempted to exchange now. Any thoughts?

[SilverRex]

as posted yesterday regarding Natgas, UNG looks like it managed to jump over the descending wedge which normally suggest a resumption of the original uptrend that started at 7.23

However we could see price test the 8.1 resistance and complete a very small 5 waves up, so depending on how the inventory report goes this morning, it may produce a good pull back.

current key support lies at 7.80-7.87, for a bullish move, I'd say these number will be the key in launching UNG much higher

failure to hold these number would open up the following possibility. A retest of 7.45-7.50 support, a double bottom dip at 7.23 or worse yet a much larger ABC correction with 7.23 being A, and a C wave pointing to a bit lower still.

over all trend imo remains bullish, its now all about picking the right price for entry, we are in august folks, september is right around the corner. Again, the longer we linger at these levels, the higher chance we are very close to a power ful up surge in the weeks ahead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung080510.jpg

[997TT]

Eas you pos. Lol
I'm still holding.

[SilverRex]

So far so good, playing text book at the moment for natgas, confirmation requires UNG to break above 8.10 and turn it into support then a strong move will be underway

PMT feels like its ready to pop soon

[997TT]

Added another 2k of eas at $4.88 (1900 has filled so far... I'm sure the other 100 will fill today)

Cost down to $5.30. If this thing doesn't turn, I just fkd my last few gains. Lol

[SilverRex]

ok so the drop was expected, but I underestimated the momentum, with 7.80 taken out, it has changed the short term outlook some what, instead of a bullish view which suggest an immediate rise once 8.1 is taken out, in fact it never did this morning, and so the confirmation never came, with the lower side support at 7.8 being broken, it has opened up the 7.45-7.5 support.

which is my make or break area, 8-8.10 continues to be the critical resistance. on the daily chart you there is a huge trend line holding this down, at 10.x, 8.84, 8.3 and now at 8.10,

UNG will have to make a move soon since it will eventually have to decide to either breakout powerfully or break down under 7.5 which is supported by a rising neckline.

on this chart a widening megaphone pattern is unfolding. The pattern also points to 7.5 as our next probable low side target if UNG does not reclaim 7.8 soon. In the short term I will say a range trading of 7.5-8 is in order until a break out or break down occurs on either side

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung0805b10.jpg

[themack89]

I don't understand why you guys watch UNG instead of Natural Gas itself.

UNG Does not give you a picture of true pricing.

EXAMPLE:
The top of the APR-MAY-JUN channel on UNG was around 7.65 to 7.75 (where it is currently trading today).

The top of the APR-MAY-JUN channel on Natural Gas was around 4.42, currently Natural Gas is trading at 4.60.

Oooo its magic!


Originally posted by 997TT
Added another 2k of eas at $4.88 (1900 has filled so far... I'm sure the other 100 will fill today)

Cost down to $5.30. If this thing doesn't turn, I just fkd my last few gains. Lol

I do not like this trade at all, sorry dood.

It doesn't show any signs of turning around, you might get a bounce to get out. You gotta wait for this crap to bottom out and go sideways a while. Earlier this year it has been in the low 3's, this means A) you have gotten a bad price relative to the last 8 months and B) you have bought into a down trend with no signs of turning yet.

[nobb]

997TT: How did you come up with your 6.25 target for EAS..isnt that a bit optimistic? It looks bearish to me over the longer term. Luckily I picked up some shares at 4.94 this morning...pretty good gains so far.

[997TT]

I was thinking it would use its 50MA as resistance barring any positive news ... Hence the 6.25
Now it looks like 4.88 is its 200DMA and is offering good support.
I'm even now ... Too bad I had to reload. Lol

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89
I don't understand why you guys watch UNG instead of Natural Gas itself.

UNG Does not give you a picture of true pricing.

EXAMPLE:
The top of the APR-MAY-JUN channel on UNG was around 7.65 to 7.75 (where it is currently trading today).

The top of the APR-MAY-JUN channel on Natural Gas was around 4.42, currently Natural Gas is trading at 4.60.

Oooo its magic!



I do not like this trade at all, sorry dood.

It doesn't show any signs of turning around, you might get a bounce to get out. You gotta wait for this crap to bottom out and go sideways a while. Earlier this year it has been in the low 3's, this means A) you have gotten a bad price relative to the last 8 months and B) you have bought into a down trend with no signs of turning yet.

I use UNG because it reflects the actual risk/reward. unless your into contracts, trying to play NG using 2x ETF or via UNG you actually lose money even when NG price have risen slightly. NG is only a good play if you get in at the right price, and you make the most of it only if it moves significantly.

Many are betting for at least one more drive to low 3s on NG to load up. If only life was perfect, I will never argue the possibility of this happening either, but if NG did bottom, then chances are good it is near a breakout move that will surprise most even the technical group. I am beginning to believe more in cycles, and the 2 year cycles are pointing to NG ready to make a 1-2 year advance with the 1st high in Jan 2011, given NG nearly performs best in september. Its right around the corner. If there is a sell off, its going to have to be a huge contango

trying to pick the bottom of NG is like picking the bottom for gold when it was crashing in 2008 to 681, then it was oil which was straddling around 35, look at where they are now. I believe the next big move in commodities will be NG, which will out perform oil and gold this winter. thats my opinion

if you follow my long term thread, while the short term may be volatile, but the over all bias have proven correct on pretty much all the forecast I placed out, oil and gold was a good move, despite anticipating a pull back which never came which I have revised. the euro drop was good play as well. and so NG is my next play for a big move that could see it climb back to 6-8 dollars within the next 6 months.

hack even my one call on HAU (agriculture) at around mid 14s, is now sitting at 18+

just stick with energy/food for the next decade and you will do just fine

[SilverRex]

ok lets throw up some updates before the weekend. The dollar while still in a bearish trend is very close to the 61% fibo of just under 80 at 79.72, I am going to expect the dollar to land a bottom around the 80 area, and so for the next few weeks, look for the dollar to form a bottoming process, such as a double bottom, a bottom of divergence similar to the one when it rallied off 74 last year.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar080610.jpg

For oil, from my last chart I suggested the idea that oil is seeking a top some where between 81-83 and we got exactly that and since then oil has came down with a mini H&S top in the lower time frame. next confirmation is to see 80 oil fail to confirm trend reverse back down towards the rising neckline, then if the market gets into over drive (collasp) we may just see another 10-20 dollar sell off which would then give us a very good buying opportunity if we land some where at or near 60.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080610.jpg

and gold, similar manner, suggested it would clime for a counter trend rally, and so off she goes, as to how high is anyones guess. I am still however going to expect gold to break for a lower low towards 1131 before finding A bottom. unless gold continues to remain above 1200 and turn bullish so confirmation is again for gold to take 1200 out to continue the expected path by month's end.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold080610.jpg


a quick note on PMT. as you see, 5 dollar continues to be the strong support for this stock. with 10/20 EMA now crossing over and buying volume beginning to pick up, I guess it is just waiting for a catalyst to explode upward. My bet is its waiting for NG to break above 5.5 so for the conservative investor, this stock is for you. Buy and hold and look for a 75-100% return by years end. imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/pmt080610.jpg

A 2nd glance on HAU which tracks Agriculture stocks, ever since calling for a possible breakout nearly 2 months ago, it has since moved higher, The bottom may be in for this sector, plenty of upside if stagflation does grip the world.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/hau080610.jpg

finally ung, even though it does not track NG prices directly, the trend is the same. since 7.8 failed to become support and it did not break above 8.1 which was the two indicator to remain bullish, it has since taking a backseat. Now it points to and has opened up the next support at 7.5 which imo would be the last stand if NG shall make a run at a new high. Time is running out, a falling and rising neckline will soon meet and it will have no place to consolidate. it must decide to pick a trend. my bet is up as I firmly believe NG to out perform everything in the commodities sector.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung080610.jpg

[997TT]

Sometimes you get them wrong ... or just bad luck with political/govt BS.

but for those that picked up EAS, i would look to move on if you are playing ST gains.

Here is some info:

Eric Coffin writes, “The downward pressure on EAS is
largely attributable to press reports about the company that
focus on the Forestry tenure at the Miwah project. The current
forestry designation that covers part of Miwah does not
allow for open pit mining. Indonesian regulations include
several avenues to upgrade the forestry designation to deal
with this and we’re sure that EAS is working through them. It
would be a negotiated process and we would not expect to
hear much about ongoing negotiations until they are completed.
While there is no guarantee of success the same can
be said for the myriad permits required in any other jurisdiction.
It’s the nature of the mining business. Indonesia is a
pro-mining country and projects of merit have a history of
being allowed to proceed. Aceh derives a quarter of its GDP
from resources and government officials are on record as
being pro mining. EAS has been and continues to be highly
successful as an explorer and an investment and has management
that is highly experienced in the region. It’s not a
sure thing but then exploration stories (like any other investments)
never are. We don’t think the issues they face in Indonesia
are unique or more serious than permitting issues
faced anywhere explorers operate.”
Wendell Zerb writes, “East Asia EAS:TSX – SPEC BUY :
$7.50 target. Impact: potentially long term negative. Indonesia
has drafted rules for a two-year ban on permits for forest
clearing, to be potentially implemented Jan 2011. Indonesia
and Norway recently signed a $1 billion climate deal to cut
the rate of deforestation in Indonesia, which is currently
more than 1 million hectares of forest per year. If this ban on
forestry is applied, it is likely to lead to a more difficult pathway
for miners to obtain forest land-use permits and there is
speculation existing forest permits could be revoked.
East Asia Minerals

Within the draft guideline there is a section that states there will be an assessment of the economic impact relating to
the program. The headline implication is negative for any miners in Indonesia. The program is a plan to reduce carbon
emissions and is likely, partly instigated by deforestation related to the Palm oil industry. It appears that both protected
and production forest could be under a cease harvesting program. While EAS is more than 2 years away from requiring a
forestry permit at Miwah or elsewhere, this does not instill confidence.”

[themack89]

Originally posted by SilverRex
just stick with energy/food for the next decade and you will do just fine

Thanks, I've been doing this for a while now lol. The predictability is extremely high and if you time it half-assedly right, your chances of losing [alot or any] money become extremely small.

My first trade that I posted here on beyond you could have retired from it, but who was gonna listen to someone who such a low post count?? :dunno: It's simple supply and demand.

[KappaSigma]

Call me a gabmler but I am going to slowly buy some compton P shares now that they are below $0.50. I know their are heavily leveraged but no risk no gain.

IMO, their proven reserves value are > than current market cap. If they can continue to restrucure and sell non core assets to reduce debt it could potnetially be a nice 3-5 year hold IMO.

Net assets (equity) of 1 billion and ~250 million shares out. Based on book value its $4 per share.

[SilverRex]

ok tis a new week and so we shall see what it brings,

lets start with the dollar index, not much has changed from my past posting, as I expect the dollar will soon complete a bottom and begin to head back up, but until it is confirm by price taking out 81 then 82, you can expect price to either form a lower low, a divergence or even a double bottom of some sort, it is getting ready for the next wave up, so we are definately in the early stages of a larger trend reversal. For the short term unless price can break above 81 to make it interesting other wise expect price to continue to find weakness with next target low near 79.7x

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar080910.jpg

oil has pretty much moved to my expecation in the last few weeks now that price has finally got to the 83 target high I set previously, I am not expecting some confirmation signal that the down trend is underway, the initial dip to 80 was nice, but confirmation requires price to take out 80 as well as the rising neckline, you can even wait until the 10/20 EMA makes a death cross, then we will know its time to short on dips with oil at least most likely headed back down to 70, and if the market does top out and begin another larger wave sell off, then oil would be taking down with it, I expect if we find oil to suddenly makes a move down to 55-60, it would present a very good position to get back on the bull train.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080910.jpg

gold is heading back up nicely, the 10/20 EMA has crossed over as well which indicates bullish momentum, the only question remaining is, was the bottom in near 115x or we will see one more dive to a lower low. My expecation is still a lower low towards 1131 just so we can line up with Cyclist's forecast and turning points, but in the lower level charts, if gold continues to build into an uptrend that does not look corrective, then perhaps it will continue to head north, we will soon find out once gold makes a low level correction we'll monitor this closely.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold080910.jpg

[SilverRex]

here is quick snap on dow, as you can see, very similar to how oil looks, and it is currently in a sharp ascending wedge which usually points to a top then collasp, so it is nearly ready to fall and I anticipate this sell off to begin soon. If anyone is following martin armstrong's technical outlook, he called a sell off in august if we closed a new low in June (which we did on the last day) so it will be interesting to see if that lines up for a big sell off this month.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow080910.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok an update on Natgas, I'll use Natgas chart this time instead of UNG, while you may have already realize I have been calling a bullish outlook on Natgas for quite some time, given the last breakout above the mid 4s back in June was quite significant. however since then the correction has been quite drawn out and we now found our selves stuck in the middle with a bearish view beginning to show up.

Originally, EW count suggest the last run to 5.23 was still with a larger 5 waves pattern to the down side, which if you follow that count suggest a move down to 3-3.5 before the entire sell off for NG completed.

but if the last break out move was a pre-warning signal to an early start of the uptrend, then my count for the past weeks if not months suggest we need to begin the bull move now, there isnt much room left to wiggle, if we do not see price make a dash towards 5 and break it this month, my count could be in seriously japordy, and I will have no choice but to call off my bullish move until it makes a lower low.

As you can see I have placed an alt count in brown color, and with price currently sitting at the rising neckline, it must turn around now or risk a technical break down. If you want to reduce your risk there are two options, either put a stop below 4.25 or wait until price break and turn 5.00 into support. Trust me, if NG does embark on a cyclinical multi-month bullish move, there is plenty of upside to be taken.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/Natgas080910.jpg

[Meback]

I sure hope natural gas turns, I m taking an ass fuking, and I aint getting a reach around from anything else either. I guess sit and wait.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Meback
I sure hope natural gas turns, I m taking an ass fuking, and I aint getting a reach around from anything else either. I guess sit and wait.

Ng does look pretty bad this morning, but based on wave count it appears the low should be nearly in place.

using UNG as guide, I will expect it counter trend rally back towards 7.6-7.8 and use that as an exit area

because the key now lies at 7.8, price need to close above this to get the bulls back into play. other wise the trend will remain down and sell off resumes.

so take the next jump and either lower your risk or exit and wait for price to comfortably stay above 7.8 before making any significant stand on NG long.

[997TT]

Originally posted by Meback
I sure hope natural gas turns, I m taking an ass fuking, and I aint getting a reach around from anything else either. I guess sit and wait.

rofl... i'm still walking funny from my HND experience from earlier this year.