Official Short-term Investments Thread

[themack89]

Its just about managing your leash.. As it stands you guys are getting good buy prices, whether they will get better or not who knows. But if you stretch your position management too thin you will lose, I guarantee you that.

[SilverRex]

still expecting oil to touch above 76+ as long as 71.8-72 holds or does to give way.

dollar while still moving sideways, am still expecting one more sell off towards 82

NG, sharp correction after a little rally yesterday, could very well be due to gap filling left near 6.3 (UNG)

as long as the low last friday holds, I am still expecting it to claw its way back to at least 6.8 (will turn immediately bullish if it can take out 7.23)

[SilverRex]

oil while it did break down below the 71.75 support and rallied right back up, I think over all it is still moving to my expecation, the breach below 71.75 could very well warn us that this entire rally is corrective.

so hopefully this is where oil will inch towards 76-80, top out then collasp

The dollar index is moving beautifully towards 82, expecting a bottom somewhere between 81-82 at the moment.

NG, is obviously is straddling sideways, tomorrow's report could or break the current trend.

for the moment UNG at 6.34 about must hold, otherwise it will put the low at 6.19 at risk

[997TT]

Tck.b ... Like stealing candy from a kid. Will buy again once it dips under $32-33 again.

Cnq up just over a $1/share. Cmon oil... Let's put in a mini rally.

Contemplating selling HNU. I have enough shares where .20 is actually a decent days pay.

[89coupe]

Haven't posted here in a long time but I had to share this one.

TAK.V

Not sure if its been posted yet, but I bought this stock at .20 and its been really taking off, I'm sure there is more room for growth.

They just acquired five new properties, so things could really boom!

http://www.stockhouse.com/FinancialTools/sn_newsreleases.asp?symbol=V.TAK&newsid=7850164

[SilverRex]

a quick review on UNG (natgas) as you can see below, based on the current count we are very much in the final leg to complete a very substantial bottom for Natgas

keep in mind there is alot of grounds to be made up before Natgas will be consider back to being bullish, technical the chart was damaged when price was unable to confirm trend (if you follow my previous post in the last few weeks) and as such nose dived into new lows which suggest price indeed is looking for a final low in 2010

But opportunity will arise if one is patient,
initial look at this would tell us Natgas is currently bearish and in a wave .iii that is no doubt causing alot of grieve to longs, unless it produces a V shape rally, it would be hard to believe Natgas would rally without putting in some of bottoming out pattern like a price divergence such as a higher stoch indicator but lower price.

Remember wave Vs are generally difficult to gauge since it can be truncated and end early. similar to the minor wave 5 sell off back in early May this year, you can see how price completely reversed after achieving a new low.

That is why NG shorts will also have to be careful here - otherthings to consider is the gap lefted at 6.8, I strongly believe this will be filled, its only a matter of when. Current Key resistance lies at 7.23 (or 4.39 NG) simply because if there are further down side, price should not break this area. If it does it would signal the bottom will be in and chart will begin to look bullish.

the real breakout will occur when price can defeat the current neckline that has been holding price down since the rally from last year. while it is discouraging that we are still trading below this neckline, it is equally exciting once price can over take it. Because when it does, rest assure the whole one will jump in as a technical signal. I believe that price is currently at 7.8, what a coincident it would be if the breakout and key resistance both line up at 7.23?

if price does go after the gap at 6.8, be ready to take some profit off the table or reduce your risk, because until price can break above 7.23, price remains volatile and weak, every rise would be met with heavy shorting.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung090210.jpg

[SilverRex]

update: ung, low level chart mirrors the larger playout in April/May this year.

short term UNg may have bottom and ready to make a move towards 6.8-7.2 (regardless of trend)

[SilverRex]

view hasnt changed since the start of the week,

gold is in an uptrend which means buy on dips

but on the daily chart, negative divergence spotted, so we may be near A top and looking for a pull back towards the 1210-1230 zone then launch again

things will turn sour if price goes lower under 1190-1200, but until then I see we are in the early stages of a first 5 waves leg up, a pull back (maybe a 38% from the 1157 low) then a strong wave III to new highs imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold090210.jpg

[troyl]

Positive US job data, should be a good day on the markets. Futures up and natural gas up almost 2.5%.

[89coupe]

Originally posted by 89coupe
Haven't posted here in a long time but I had to share this one.

TAK.V

Not sure if its been posted yet, but I bought this stock at .20 and its been really taking off, I'm sure there is more room for growth.

They just acquired five new properties, so things could really boom!

http://www.stockhouse.com/FinancialTools/sn_newsreleases.asp?symbol=V.TAK&newsid=7850164

TAK jumped another .12 cents since I posted this the other day.

up to .52 now :bigpimp:

[mr2mike]

Nice work 89Coupe.

HNU is up and climbing. Really thinking about dumping this and waiting for it to pull back.

What's everyone else thinking? Is this going to roll into monday or will there be a pullback. Thinking back to the $4 range.

I'm thinking, that I'm in this far, might as well hold on. Can't see it retreating back to below $4 anymore.

Or I may sell and buy some HOU for a bit.

edit: Long weekend... so Tuesday it has to roll into.
So is this just a quick up so people feel good over the long weekend or what? haha

[guessboi]

I sold my last HND position at 8.5 today. no more position in HNU and HND for the moment. :D

[gyu]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Nice work 89Coupe.

HNU is up and climbing. Really thinking about dumping this and waiting for it to pull back.

What's everyone else thinking? Is this going to roll into monday or will there be a pullback. Thinking back to the $4 range.

I'm thinking, that I'm in this far, might as well hold on. Can't see it retreating back to below $4 anymore.

Or I may sell and buy some HOU for a bit.

edit: Long weekend... so Tuesday it has to roll into.
So is this just a quick up so people feel good over the long weekend or what? haha
+1, any insight?

[Red@8]

Did a couple of flips on HNU this week. Did ok. Exited out for the weekend.

[themack89]

Short Coffee 185-190

[SilverRex]

Hope everyone had a great long weekend,

time to get down to business.

lets start with the dollar index, so far im quite impressed at the moves, was expecting the dollar to enter below 82, and that was exactly what happen, price imo appears to have completed a 5-3-5 correctional pattern down to 81.90 and have since moved right back up even taking out the previous wave iv. I will like to believe the correction is over and the dollar index should now find legs slowly moving upwards for the weeks ahead, but short term I see a gap near 82.25 that will need to be filled., so expect another minor pull back then I shall expect the dollar index to march upwards beyond 83.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar090710.jpg

For gold, its pretty much been slowly inching up day after day ever since calling out that gold is moving to a new all time high. But before that happens, I see it is stuck in a widening wedge which imo typically is bearish. even if gold marches higher I still think we could be met with a sell off soon, next support lies at 1235, to hold this channel, but if it falls below 1235, I'll expect price to drop to 1210 quickly. and depending on how it reacts near 1200, we'll know if gold wants to take off from there or find a lower bottom. Right now I'll stick to the idea that gold should not take out the low 1200 area. a good place for intraday trade if you ask me.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold090710.jpg


finally oil, ever since oil made a pretty significant sell off down to the 71 area, the call for a short term bottom was correct, it has since touched off near 75.5, however I was expecting price to at least touch between 76-78 one more time before the next sell off, but right now as you can see oil has obviously produced a very noticable triangle pattern, so unless oil can close above 75 right now, the bias is still down, and the breakout will most likely be down right now.

I dont know if this may be the pattern, but oil from 83 to 71 could be a 5 waves followed by a triangle consolidation, then a break down to another 5 waves towards 60-62 area. And at that time I would like to think oil finds a bottom and thats when it decouples from the main market.

so short term I'll play the swings in this triangle, and look to ride the breakout

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil090710.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok, going to throw an update on Natgas, while the weekly closing in the green last week for Natgas was very encouraging, I have set until I see price take out 4.29 I wont get too excited, the risk remains and there is a lot of work technically.

As of now Natgas remains bearish, it would be a different story if the gains were to hold up but so far this morning price is back down to the 3.8 area, which suggest the run up last week was correctional. The moment of truth could be this week since wave count suggest last week's high could very well be the wave .iv in the chart shown, that means we have one more dip to new lows to call the decline of Natgas finished this year.

The only question is, are we looking for a double bottom at 3.70? or are we in fact on course to hit 3.3-3.5? which was my targeted worse case scenario

we'll see soon enough, the one thing that I know is, this morning Natgas will most likely open down with a gap that will be filled eventually, meaning what ever price that was lefted from last week, we will soon see price come right back up, so maybe we are about to hit capitulation and end this dragful trend once'n for all.

cyclist's projected jan/feb 2011 high for Natgas is calling for a 5 month parabolic rise. So This could be the month where Natgas picks off the bottom and run. Patient = reward. we will see how this sell off looks then we will set some key technical areas to monitor the slightest of clue for a trend reversal.

P.S one thing that supports we may have just cleared a wave .iv is the notion that the last wave .ii correction was deep, hence wave .iv can be the opposit, very shallow. and the fact that we are quite possibly entering the final wave .v move pointing downward, this wave .v does not have to move down as forecast, price is now in the hands of the big money and can any day reversal without warning (like sept 2009) if you have a little playing money, just get ready for a good opportunity.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgas090710.jpg

[SilverRex]

ok a mid week update here, the dollar index while I believe we are at any moment ready for an upside surge, price is still being held off due to this neckline shown here. the obviouse expecation is, until there is a breakout over this neckline (closing few bars above it) dollar will remain hessitant,

after all the gap under 82.30 still has not been filled yet. The bullish case even if the dollar does breakout here, would only surge about .50 higher then coil right back down to retest the the breakout imo

overall dollar trend is up I believe and when the corrections are finished, it will be ready to spike either soon or towards end of the month.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar090910.jpg

And as for oil, clearly, its also in a similar pattern where price is being held off, a neckline is forcing oil into a wedge but this morning it looks as though it is ready to breakout, if that is the case. the 78-80 top as I was expecting may be back on the table, due to the coming drop (which I expect) the market will pull oil right back down, I still believe oil needs to at least sell off towards the low 60s as a bare minimum before taking onto a long position, so if your plays to intraday swings only.

bearish notion begins when oil takes out 72.6 or abouts because it would completely negate the uptrend with higher lows here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil090910.jpg

[nobb]

NG wtf. I thought it should be strong NG season right about now...

[mr2mike]

I'm holding onto NG for dear life. Sell point is $3.80 and its gotten a little close for comfort.

Storage is lower than last year so at some point this beast will take off.
Here's hoping for a big deep freeze setting in this winter down east. Freeze those bastards for the nice hot summer they had.

[89coupe]

I'm no expert when it comes to predictions but the word I'm hearing from a lot of people in the Oil & Gas sector is that there will be a 'HUGE' gas correction this fall, which will create a big spike in gas.

So if you are gambling kind of person, you might want to look in to some good gas stocks, cause its gonna go, and when it does its going to be big!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 89coupe
I'm no expert when it comes to predictions but the word I'm hearing from a lot of people in the Oil & Gas sector is that there will be a 'HUGE' gas correction this fall, which will create a big spike in gas.

So if you are gambling kind of person, you might want to look in to some good gas stocks, cause its gonna go, and when it does its going to be big!

from a technical and cycle perspective I am expecting a parabolic 5 month rally in NG,

oil will too rally but after a initial dip along with the general market, again its all about big money moving from one sector to another. A flight to quality disregarding fundamentals

[SilverRex]

update: oil had a fake breakout above 75 today, price is back within the original wedge, if oil breaks below 72.6 abouts, then this would confirm the immediate bearish outlook as well as completing the higher top I mention stalling right near 76 instead of making it abit higher.

so watch out below

[e36bmw///]

nm

[themack89]

Originally posted by SilverRex
again its all about big money moving from one sector to another

This is a better analysis than all the work you put into your charts, lol.

[mr2mike]

http://jump.fm/YKDQM

Nexen Marketing news on NG and Oil.

Interesting what Nexen blames for lower gas prices:
"NYMEX is lower week over week on a lack of credible hurricane threats.

Conditions remain unfavorable for a hurricane to strike the Gulf coast production fairway.

The EIA reported a build in inventories of 58 Bcf which was in line with consensus estimates. Storage levels remain below year ago levels but above the five year normal."

[FlamingC19]

Link doesn't work for me...can you expand on the article a little?

[Rat Fink]

.

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by scotty_69
Link doesn't work for me...can you expand on the article a little?

Sorry, I'll upload to a different site next time. On the link, near the bottom of the big box in the middle of the screen there's a "Save file to your PC" click here.

Click there... super small hyperlink. Then you should be able to open it. It's a PDF file. Let me know if you still can't get it, I'll try to post it on a different share site tomorrow morning.

[themack89]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


Woah, this is so crazy. I just had a shadow cast through my room and I felt the ground shake. I was trying to plot a trend line on a chart I had printed and the lines got all scribbled up. My TV turned to white static and my eyelid started to twitch. I figured it was you making another insightful post so I came online to see if it could be true....if you had graced us with your presence again, and behold Christmas has come early for me tonight. I have a raging boner right now with themack89 tattooed on it. I shall see to it that another technical analyst gets sacrificed on your altar. In the meantime, I'm so worked up about this event that just occured that I need to go rub one out......right after I set up my stink bid for some HNU tomorrow. peace!

Well.. at least I know if I'm not around to troll this thread, you'll be here second in command.

[SilverRex]

I hope everyone had a good weekend, lets start the charts with the dollar today. as posted previously, I was expecting price to fill the gap just under 82.30, however interestingly it got extremely close but never did fill, while I cannot rule out the possibility still exist, the over all feel to the current movement still remains bullish, looking at a higher level, the outlook has not changed, we've completed a 5 waves up to 83+ back in late august and since price has been correcting, we are at any moment ready for a breakout for the dollar to take another surge beyond 83+, the only thing holding us back is the supply trendline or neckline what ever you want to call it holding price down, once dollar breaks thru, we should have much more momentum moving higher and higher over the course of the next few weeks.

the only negative is the alt count drawn here that if this is a even longer correction then first thought, then yes price can still move down another 2 weeks towards month's end for a lower price below 82 once more, but I will still view that as a correction looking for a huge surge to the upside.

so from now until the end of the year, just get ready, once the dollar completes its correction either it was last week or another few more weeks, the notion is a strong pop and this could very well end

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar091310.jpg

now onto gold, I have been expecting gold to put in a all time high during this run up but for the short term I see a pull back and so far late last I said even if price was to move higher the negative divergence I see with stoch is just ripe for a killing, and so gold has fallen back to its trend channel right on the spot just above 1235, obviously gold now has two paths this week, either it remains in this channel by slowly moving back up once again, or price can break this channel and begin looking after a more medium scale correction down to the 1190-1210 area, clues that may indicate price remains in the channel requires 10/20 EMA back in bullish cross over, price above 1250 etc etc, price looking further pull back needed equates to price breaking the trend channel or price holding below 1235

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold091310.jpg

and last but not least, oil, I must admit, I was fooled by the fake breakout which turn sour last week, however I did say price still needed to break below 72.6 to completely turn oil bearish and sell off towards low 60s to begin, which never did pan out. so oil has completely turned around and moved higher, so while as confusing as this may sound, my original thought and expecation for oil to hit a higher high is back on the table meaning, looking for price to find a top between 76-80 abouts, clues where we know oil is still bearish or is about to turn red would be to see price unable to hold above 76. this will all depend on when the general market decides to pop and head down , until then I'll say oil is short term bullish, medium term bearish and long term bullish pending for the right price say starting at 60 oil

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil091310.jpg

[SilverRex]

A quick look at Natgas weekly chart. While the lower level until price shows its hand further, its hard to tell if the bottom is in at 3.70 for Natgas, but we are much closer to a bottom trend reversal friends, and just by looking at this chart, see the neckline currently holding price down currently now at about 4.75, price will eventually at least retest this neckline, it is only a matter of time, and of course everyone knows price breaking this neckline is a pretty significant breakout move and will result in price advancing further.

The only question that remains is, will Natgas go lower first before swinging higher. well wave count suggest we may still have one more swing below 3.70, depending on how the market goes, a fall out underneath is never out of the question, but if this happens, it will be a panic sell attack, or a stop hunting move by the big money temping to go one way, head fake then surprise everyone by moving strongly in the opposit direction, if there is a good example, it would be the same time last year as you see how strong Natgas rose after hitting the 2.62 bottom.

a key area I keep mentioning is watch 4.29 closely, I expect this to be the 1st clue in telling us that Natgas correctional bottom is in, 2nd signal is the breakout beyond the current 4.75 neckline, with that said, it means we still have plenty of time to watch this and plan a move, so no rush. This morning Natgas is down a bit, possibly due to trying to fill a gap left late last week. UNG that gap was near 6.35. Anyways I know most people are burned by Natgas in the past, so this is not a trade for the faint of heart, and I still expect it to move sharply when the time is right.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/Natgas091310.jpg

[FlamingC19]

Lets hope HNU continues its climb! Thanks SR for helping out with everything!

[nobb]

Im just hoping for NG to hit 4.25 to recover my losses :cry:

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

ok folks, lets look at Natgas this morning, with Oct contract flerting around the 4 dollar mark, Natgas certainly is giving us a bit of a clearer picture than 2 weeks ago. I've repeated quite a few times, the current chart, with the latest movement appears to suggest we are in a final wave .iv of .v and if that is true, the obvious outcome would be that once Natgas finds a top some where between 4-4.29, price should begin to come down to retest the low set at 3.7 and even a chance it can capitulate into a final low. Worse case it can be of 3-3.3x, best case it could be a double bottom near 3.70 again we are closer to a bottom than we are at a top, and that is for sure.

while that is my current expecation, however watch 4.29 closely (or 7.23 for UNG) because if Natgas is bearish and has much further lower to go, price should not break above this area, and if it does, it would signal trend is about to change and you would immediately buy on signifcant dips, also be patient, no need to jump in blindly, the real Breakout point is still far away so far just under 4.80, looking at UNG the gap left near 6.35 still has been filled, the entire structure of the last 2 weeks looks more corrective than impulsive, that is why my out look remains on the down side until we see a classic bottoming process such as a lower low with MACD or STOCH giving us a higher angle swing point.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgas091410.jpg

[SilverRex]

After suggesting the dollar is ready for a breakout move but also keeping in a mind the gap left under 82.30 to be filled, it appears the weak out look took over this one pretty quick and fast. we continue to have a neckline preventing a true breakout as seen here on the higher level chart, my expecation that price needs to make a final dive below 82 one more time has fulfilled. A wide gap now appears on the table, its a ticking bomb and my outlook too will remain the same, when it is ready, dollar should breakout in a strong advance, this initial pop would imo bring oil down with

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar091410.jpg

[SilverRex]

also looking at the Dow chart, it too is looking like it is just about to finish its own 5 waves up possibly in a larger correctional pattern pointing to the down side, negative divergence is appearing on stoch so if price takes out 10450 I would imagine the sell off will begins

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow091410.jpg

[mr2mike]

With SR's analysis on NG today, I sold off my HNU position for a profit up from $3.95.
Only because it had this huge dip midday. It fought back to par but I think there's more of a downside risk than an upside right now. I'll buy back in the under $4 range again.
How did everyone else fair today?

Thanks again SR.

[troyl]

Originally posted by mr2mike
With SR's analysis on NG today, I sold off my HNU position for a profit up from $3.95.
Only because it had this huge dip midday. It fought back to par but I think there's more of a downside risk than an upside right now. I'll buy back in the under $4 range again.
How did everyone else fair today?

Thanks again SR.

That mid day dip on HNU almost scared me into selling, but I held off. Hope we get some positve news on thursday. RVX made my day today just kept running and running! Anyone holding?

[max_boost]

Gone for 3 weeks and just curious if anyone was on HND because it went on a nice tear before pulling back lol

Anyway, came back to see the TSX up over 12,000 which is nice, made a bit of cash but sitting on the sidelines now.

General consensus, markets gonna go up to 12,500 or back to 11,500? LOL

SR, what does crystal ball tell you?

[FlamingC19]

SR would you suggest selling of my position in HNU and wait for a further dip or hold on to it?

[troyl]

Maybe Igor will change course and take a run at the gulf? That would sure help out HNU holders.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Gone for 3 weeks and just curious if anyone was on HND because it went on a nice tear before pulling back lol

Anyway, came back to see the TSX up over 12,000 which is nice, made a bit of cash but sitting on the sidelines now.

General consensus, markets gonna go up to 12,500 or back to 11,500? LOL

SR, what does crystal ball tell you?

favoring a dip between sept/oct then up we go

[davidI]

For those of you who invest in XIU - check out HXT. Lower management fee and it automatically re-invests dividends (like a DRIP) so no taxable quarterly dividends.

http://www.financialpost.com/news/Invest+ETFs+free+almost/3524921/story.html

[gyu]

Originally posted by mr2mike
With SR's analysis on NG today, I sold off my HNU position for a profit up from $3.95.
Only because it had this huge dip midday. It fought back to par but I think there's more of a downside risk than an upside right now. I'll buy back in the under $4 range again.
How did everyone else fair today?

Thanks again SR.
I've still held on to my small position of HNU, hopefully I don't regret doing so.

So far 11.89% increase, not too shabby, thanks SilverRex! :clap:

[SilverRex]

quick mid week update on the dollar index, my last post, I suggested the idea that dollar either is ready to breakout and move above 83.5 or potentially pushing lower for a deeper correction. While I did not expect the pull back to be this significant, the bullish out look should still be in tact. My next idea is to see the 80.80 area hold as that is the 78.6% fibo, as long as this area holds (no multiple closes below this) the idea that the dollar is still in a correction should hold true, look for dollar to begin rising and to retest the neckline holding price down now just under 82.5, a price break beyond this should set sail with a strong dollar for the coming weeks.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar091610.jpg

As for oil, we virtually got a double top near at 78, and so far oil is moving within my expecation, I was expecting a top some where between 76-80, and 78 is more than enough, the clue I wanted everyone to consider is seeing price take out 76 to confirm weakness, and price has since moving down to 75. trend favors a break down with 2nd confirmation to take out the rising neckline just above 74, unless oil can suddenly swing back above 76.50, Id expect my views for the past weeks to hold true

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil091610.jpg

[SilverRex]

with a weak report this morning NG has gave up most gains this week, looking at the chart I believe we should have by now completed our wave iv correctional top, current view points to a final low below 6.18 on UNG (below 3.7 NG),

while worse case it can capitulate into a steep sell off towards the low 3s, because this is a final wave v of V sequence, the down trend could also terminate at any time. Again we would know this when price crosses key resistance over head at 7.23 UNG and 4.29 NG respectfully,

interestingly the gap at 6.8 UNG has basically filled, and have always believed in price filling these gaps. risk takers can begin adding long term position from current area and any further dips ahead. If you want to play safe, you will have plenty of chances to get in, I would definately wait for price to take reclaim some key support before getting excited.

with price closing above the 20 EMA briefly, its the very 1st sign that this leg down wont last too long.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung091610.jpg

[SilverRex]

a close up on a lower level chart for UNG this morning, as you can see UNG is nearly completed a sub iii of v here. price should rally abit then sell off into a lower low.

the only question is, will this 5 legs down be it or will we see a 3 wave counter trend follow by a stronger 5 waves down? we will only expect this to be the case until price can reclaim the 6.6x, if price can regain its footing above this then the lower level will begin to shine and possibily surprise everyone to the upside in a few days, but until then,

NG is currently bearish, any rise will be met with more selling. Alot of bulls are standing aside waiting for the moment or even a buy signal

update: interestingly price is trying to completely recoup today's loss, while not what I expect for today, definately very encouraging for bulls


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ungcloseup.jpg

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by SilverRex

with price closing above the 20 EMA briefly, its the very 1st sign that this leg down wont last too long.


SR Awesome recap on NG. Helping a lot of people here!

This is how you calculate EMA?
http://www.iexplain.org/ema-how-to-calculate/

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by mr2mike


SR Awesome recap on NG. Helping a lot of people here!

This is how you calculate EMA?
http://www.iexplain.org/ema-how-to-calculate/

nah just plot it if the chart has EMA setting 10 and 20

if you notice, it gives a very early sign as to when it is in trend, and in a strong one, price tend to hold at the 10 EMA

if you look at the last sell off for NG early this year, price was unable to close above the 10 EMA, with price able to close above 20 EMA recently, I see price is not in a trend but hessitating, perhaps shaking out as we speak, once buyer out pace sellers, price goes up. simply as that.

[SilverRex]

wow NG basically recoup all of its loss this morning, interesting move. let see if it can gain momentum, if UNG can close above today's high at 6.75 I will then expect price to shoot up another 7%

[gyu]

Wow HNU's drop this morning :eek:

But HNU's recovery this afternoon :eek: :eek: :eek:

[nobb]

NG is going so strong and also September is usually a strong NG season... it's hard to imagine if there is going to be a final wave V for <3.7 NG. Thoughts?

[FlamingC19]

Would it be a bad time to re-purchase HNU. It seems to have very strong momentum right now. I previously bought in @ 4 sold @ 4.37 because the anticipated final wave.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by scotty_69
Would it be a bad time to re-purchase HNU. It seems to have very strong momentum right now. I previously bought in @ 4 sold @ 4.37 because the anticipated final wave.

folks, NG between 4-4.29 is no mans land, it can go either way, best to wait it out if we are only high side, but for those that gambled at the low, then it would be a good profit taking day

[mr2mike]

Personally, I'm waiting for another dip. Missed this one, since I don't have the million dollar trade station software running (transition was too quick).
If there is no dip, then I am waiting for some better support. Right now it could drop to $3.50 in a heartbeat.

I think these two past days with such high volitility (ie: the rollercoaster rides) shows that the market doesn't know where this is headed yet and there's "arguing" over the price.

[mr2mike]

Gas Marketing Newsletter
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=0T5KV2NZ

note: I went with megaupload this time, should make it easier for you guys.

Excerpt:
"NYMEX moved higher this morning despite a bearish inventory report. There are currently no real huricane threats to Gulf production in the Atlancis. Hurican Igor is drifing out to the middle of the Atlantic and Tropical storm Karl lacks the intensity to become a huricane.The EIA reported a build in inventories of 103 Bcf which was above market expectations for a 95 Bcf injection."

[Rat Fink]

.

[SilverRex]

looking at gold this morning, as from last post, either gold was ready to break down away from the trend channel or remain in it and move to the top of the range, now that price is at the upper range, I now expect gold to either move back down and grind along 1265 or towards the lower end of the channel, which ever comes first, the rising channel could catch up to price if price is reluctant to fall.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold091710.jpg

[SilverRex]

a possible divergence to Stoch spotted on the dollar index, if the dollar at 80.80 is as important as I first thought, then price should be more than ready to rise from here. Expecting price to retest 82.50 to fill the gap left this week, after that it would consider a breakout.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar091710.jpg

[SilverRex]

Dow looks more than ready to fall from here, a break below 10550 is needed, the opposit would be true if price pushes above 10750 which would turn it bullish, for now based on how the dollar is to rise, our sept/oct drop is around the corner, id expect DOW's latest rally should be exhusted and ready for a pull back

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow091710.jpg

[davidI]

Strong US$ and a break-down in the DOW should help my HOD position. I'm in the money right now but it looks like we're bouncing off that support around $74.50 right now.

[SilverRex]

I will be away monday/tuesday on a training course

So no charts for a few days, until then, the following is my latest views

oil trend = bearish
gold trend = neutral to bullish
dollar index = bullish
Natgas trend = neutral to bearish
Dow trend = bearish

[davidI]

Hope you're right on oil! I had a sell order in for half my shares of HOD at $11:20 but it didn't correctly transmit due to my $hitty Yemen internet connection. I'll just keep my fingers crossed that nothing happens over the weekend to give any price support!

[gyu]

Crossing my fingers for a solid day for HNU, the longer I hold the more :nut: I get, it doesn't help that I can't check every morning either. Anyone else still holding on to it?

[nobb]

Well it wouldnt surprise me if NG makes one last dip before rallying up for the winter. However, whether it will actually rally down to SR's worse case prediction of 3.3 is kind of far fetched. I'd like to re-enter the HNU game just hoping for a good bottom in the future...

For now, my money is with HDU (US Dollar ETF). I can sell that off and jump back into HNU if need be.

[troyl]

Nat gas off 2.3% in Asian markets hope it will turn around come open tomorrow morn.

[nobb]

Does the Asian NG markets noticeably affect North American energy markets, considering that there is not much real physical trade (import/export) of NG between continents?

NG seems to be down 2.3% over the weekend based on http://www.oil-price.net/

[mr2mike]

Is this the NG bottom? It does look like it's wanting to trend lower. I'm on the fence for a buy in for HNU right now. I doubt there will be a drastic reversal like last week, time to watch today.

[997TT]

Man at this price I'm ready to re-enter HNU. Haha

We'll see though.

[troyl]

Originally posted by 997TT
Man at this price I'm ready to re-enter HNU. Haha

We'll see though.
Hey 997TT, do you still have KMK in your pf? They finally got taken over on Friday.

[997TT]

No i dont...haha.
saw the takeout news as a buddy i know still owns.

[gyu]

Pretty big drop :( , the stock I had before HNU increased 23.94% today :banghead: :cry:

[skandalouz_08]

Anyone have an idea of what oil will bottom out at? Almost $2 drop in the price today.

[themack89]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08
Anyone have an idea of what oil will bottom out at? Almost $2 drop in the price today.

It would be nice to see 72 or 70

[SilverRex]

great to be back, even though I was only away for 2 days on training.

interestingly things are looking a little different than what I had expected. Looking at the dollar index, the sell off pushed beyond my hopes for an obvious rebound, looking at the chart below, while things doesnt look as bullish as before, I wont rule out the possibly of a significant rally. Price is now right at the 61% fibo support which does give us high possibly turning this around. My recommendation is now to wait and see how price decides to move around this area, if price can re-capture above 81.50 I would consider a buying on dips immediately, otherwise for the short term - expect the dollar to be short term bearish until it gives us a solid bottoming process either going straight up from here or moving sideways for a few days

if prices does begin to climb once again, certainly stoch still looks good.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar092210.jpg

my last post on friday suggested gold is either neutral - bullish and sure enough, price was holding very well above 1270 and hence another surge to a new high. On the daily chart, I expect gold continue to be bullish (buy on dips) unless gold takes out 1265. If gold is indeed bullish, 1265 should now turn into a very strong support.

target could be anywhere between 1300 to 1377 based on fibo extension.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold092210.jpg

finally for oil, due to the weakness in the dollar as well as equities, oil suddenly was given some life after all. My view is still a dip to 60s but in order for this to remain on the table I want to see oil at 77 hold. So long this area keeps oil down and under, I would look to short oil on any rally for the next wave down.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil092210.jpg

[SilverRex]

another reason why I may not buy the dollar sell off is because looking at the dow chart, while we finally did over come the 10700 area, this may appear as a bullish breakout to many, but I wonder if this is a trap, because I have revised my count and what we are seeing now can still be of a ABC correction. a key comfirmation is to see price unable to hold above 10700, if this is still a correction and another dip under 10k is warranted, then look for price to top out soon and move into another significant sell off in the coming weeks. Stoch is clearly oversold and ready to turn south as well

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow092210.jpg

[FlamingC19]

Any insight on NG?

[troyl]

^^ Everyone holding or selling before the inventory numbers tomorrow?

[Canmorite]

Lots of selling into the close. SR's DJI chart is bang on. If S&P breaks 1115 I'd be looking for a downside play.

EDIT: Check out VIX.

[FlamingC19]

Has anyone heard of Sprott Inc.? Looks like over the last month its seen about a 30% ROI and news today showed the company expanding their financial services into the U.S market. It was up 6% today alone. Don't know if those kind of gains will hold. Does anyone else know much about this company?

[SilverRex]

Not too exciting this week so far, so not going to offer any new views other than what I've posted before.

the dollar index as you can see is still in a bottoming process around the 61% fibo, until we see a more solid support around this area, the view is obviously bearish, but count suggest we are nearly finished in this 5 waves down from 83.5, if that is so, I may expect price to at the least swing back towards 81.5

wait for 10/20 EMA crossing over as the 1st sign, for myself, closing above 81.5 may again turn the index back to being bullish, until then, continue to wait and hold.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar092410.jpg

Gold is happily moving 2 steps up and 1 steps back. while I was expecting a little bit more of a stronger pull back towards 1265, the trend here is also plain obvious, gold is bullish, all dips are being snatched up, especially when price pulls back to previous high such as 1265, 1285, etc if it does break away above 1300, 1300 will become support. see the pattern here?

so that would be the way to trade gold in the short term, once those support suddenly begins to break, then a larger pull back is on the way. or is here. again, trend is bullish, buy on dips is whats happening here folks. For now unless 1265 gives away, buying any significant dips will be the play until it forumalates a top where only time will tell.

for oil, my expecation for a slightly higher high then top out hasnt been fulfilled, clearly oil is trying to push higher, the neckline holding it down may soon give and so the higher high above 76.3 about would hold true, Id expect oil to go no higher than 77 at the moment. If that happens, then oil has suddenly becoming more bullish, otherwise, similar to the trend in DOW and S&P I expect at least one sharp pull back to a lower low for oil it could be in the 60s, for DOW it could be just under 9600, my expecation is that if we shall see price dive under 9600, it may only be temporary, and price can then quickly get bought all the way back up.

the longer we hold out without mini correction to close out the year, the more likely the inflationary path is here, who knows we might have over estimated the last deflationary panic, because the more people believe in this, the more it does the opposite.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil092410.jpg

[SilverRex]

a quick look at Natgas, nothing new under the sun, the latest count is suggest weakness ahead as we are in the final .v of (v) to end this 2 year down trend. However, I've repeated this idea a few times before, wave Vs are usually not a guaranteed move. simply because waves v indicates exhustion and price can at any time move in the opposit direction and form a new trend quickly.

worse case scenario is completing this final wave with a 5 waves down with the latest drop the 3.94 this week as .i, then a larger .iii and a .v and so forth. in otherwords retesting 3.70 or perhaps slightly lower for a divergence

a bullish scenario is to see a false break down, then price quickly recapture where we are now and move above 4.29, yes it doesnt matter how you slice and dice it, my key area to watch is 4.29 on NG and 7.23 on UNG, when price closes above this then I would immediately call Natgas bullish, it will turn NG into a buy on dips play, the bottom will then most likely be in, until this happens, be a bit patience, wait for a bargin price entry.

one bright spot is the 10/20 EMA which I rely upon quite alot, its about to make the death cross, then again we had a fake cross over back in late July when price suddenly collasped.

Summary, NG is near the tail end of cyclical down trend, and is more than ready to make a major move inthe coming months, the only question is when,

PS: the PMT.to which I recommend a while back continues to be a very good play under 5 dollars, stick with this and profit in a few months time

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/Natgas092410.jpg

[SilverRex]

dollar index looks like its in a final .v of (v) count, watch out sell off could be a fake,

DOW next resistance at 10900 also looks like a head fake

[FlamingC19]

No updates on NG?

[kaput]

.

[FlamingC19]

Haha wow nevermind then thanks!

[mr2mike]

In HNU @3.97

Have a set point at $3.80 to exit.

Have a good weekend!

[themack89]

Originally posted by mr2mike
In HNU @3.97

Have a set point at $3.80 to exit.

Have a good weekend!

Wat are you short or long?

[SilverRex]

Fresh week but also last week in september, the next few weeks will prove to be vital but equally telling, my bias favors towards an inflationary environment, that of course targets specific sectors.

while we are are expecting a mini dip in the market, who knows, there is the off chance it may never come. Because, the more obivious people believe in an event, the higher probability that it may not happen.

But until otherwise proven, technically I'll stick idea as long as I could.

looking at the dollar index first, as from my last post, dollar is currently bearish, and it remains being sold on rallies. Look at the chart, the previous low at 79.56 became resistance, and price quickly was rejected and back down we go, indicative of a down trend continuation.

so lots of work to be done if we want to see dollar make a splash back up.
Recommendation continues to wait and hold, until we see clear signs that the dollar is ready to breakoff this trend. If you must trade, then follow the herd until the signs I mention come into play.

earliest sign is of course, price needs to overtake 79.56 as well as breaking out of the 45 degree neckline, then we may have ourselves a potential bottom in place. Next would be to look for price to over take the next bearish neckline currently just under 80.60, now even if we have the dollar getting to this area does not mean we are 100% breaking out, my key area remains at 81.60 abouts. but each step of the day is a confirmation that the bullish dollar imprint is slowly coming back.

So without the above technical signals, Id remain bearish or a wait and hold approach.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar092710.jpg


its been a while since I updated gold on the high level chart, lets recap shall we? from here as you can see all count remains in play since suggesting this count many months ago, we are well into our final 5 of .v of (iii) that could slight us as high as 1377 gold price. Then we are to expect another pull back which on the bullish side could see a min price target of 1226-1265 area being tested. This could potentially be the dip that cyclist may be refering to in october when metals pull back a bit here.

The only question is, will we see 1377 first to complete our 5 of .v of (iii), or will we see a dip first, consolidate next month, then rise 150 dollars for the seasonal strong months ahead for metals into early 2011. What I am more interested is the 1000 gold price. Because once we complete Major III some where above 1300+, I am expecting price to quickly retrace 38%, I've repeatedly suggesting this quite a few times, one chart I posted a while ago suggest gold since 2001, has significantly pulled back 38% each time it makes a new high, it has done so many times, it has always been around 38%, cocinident? the last major decline from 1006-681 was about 38%,

it would be an ideal area for gold to reach as high as 1377 which is an fibo extension target, put in a 38% and bring price back to 1000. This will be the area where I imagine will definately create a huge a mount of buying. so while most of us have already accumalated plenty of physical, continue to hold them and save some cash for 1000 gold. But recommendation is not to sell what you have because count can be wrong, and the last thing you want is to be cheap, and sold off your stash for a potential selloff that may never come.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold092710.jpg

[SilverRex]

Natgas is on track and moving according to count. From my last post, I suggested NG to at least based on count revisit the low at 3.70, and we are a few cents away from achieving just that,

I fully expect NG bottom to be in place very soon as it is now in a wave .iii of .v of (v)

only question is will NG produce a double truncated bottom at 3.70 or will we see a capitulation similar to late 09 before a new trend emerges, price will eventually reveal this very soon

NG remains short term berish but long term bullish

[kaput]

.

[mr2mike]

Gambled a bit and lost.
Can't pick bottoms all the time.

[JDMMAN]

SilverRex - Just wondering what time frame are you looking at PMT to double in? By end of the year? Or by end of next year? Looks to be a decent hold in an RRSP account just for the $0.05/mth/share dividend.

[SilverRex]

earliest signs that NG may have turned around is for UNG to close above 6.37-6.40, abov e 6.60 = extremely bullish imo otherwise continue to expect it to be bearish or wait and hold

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by JDMMAN
SilverRex - Just wondering what time frame are you looking at PMT to double in? By end of the year? Or by end of next year? Looks to be a decent hold in an RRSP account just for the $0.05/mth/share dividend.

I dont think it will be by the end of next year, I was cautious with the double by summer from another following place calling this, but I do agree with my own analysis that NG will be a good place to be in the next 6-8 months

consider how well pmt is holding at these level despite a falling NG prices, Id say, once NG completes its bottom and begins a 5 month cycle high, pmt should take off, as to how aggressively is anyone's guess.

the the equity market does have a mini panic attack, who knows pmt may offer up some very insane price levels, so dont place all your bets with one price. have patiences, each dip in pmt.to is another great buying opportunity imo

other areas to invest would be to diversify into food/agriculture/energy all together. Once the wheels on the dollar falls off and moves into hyper mode, all those sectors i mention will benefit simutanously.

stocks in those sectors will shine in 2011

[SilverRex]

oil bearish views remains as price was rejected at the 77 resistance area I suggested last time.

continue to expect weakness as long as price stays under 77, further bulls will jump ship if price moves under 75.50

[997TT]

took my first position in HNU at $3.74.

cmon NG