Official Short-term Investments Thread

[gyu]

Another new low for HNU, wish I had more funds to average down

[e36bmw///]

nm

[997TT]

go NG!!!! :thumbsup:


edit:out of HNU at $3.92 for a tidy 1 day gain.

eyeing HGD ... as gold is absolutely on fire. but i'm thinking a pull back will occur in OCT.

[themack89]

Why is gold equities and bonds all going up?

[BigMass]

Originally posted by themack89
Why is gold equities and bonds all going up?

because the US dollar is tanking. The only thing less pathetic than the US dollar right now is the Canadian dollar which is tanking against all other currencies as well. I think this is the first time in a long time that the CAD is actually less than the AUS dollar. Bottom line is major investors around the world have lost faith in most paper currencies and it’s just a matter of time before the other ones tank too as they debase to keep up with the US dollar inflation. Stick with Gold

[themack89]

Originally posted by BigMass


because the US dollar is tanking. The only thing less pathetic than the US dollar right now is the Canadian dollar which is tanking against all other currencies as well. I think this is the first time in a long time that the CAD is actually less than the AUS dollar. Bottom line is major investors around the world have lost faith in most paper currencies and it’s just a matter of time before the other ones tank too as they debase to keep up with the US dollar inflation. Stick with Gold

Ok, but bonds are inversely related to equities.. when one goes up the other goes down.

So your answer to them both going up is the US dollar is tanking?

USD Index has been tanking since June
Equities has been mostly sideways since June
Gold has been down and up since June
Bonds has been rallying hard since June
USD Index went sideways when Bonds dipped (August - early sept)

All berry berry mixed signals

Too confusing I'll stick with energy and agriculture, you can keep the gold :clap:

[max_boost]

Someone look into the crystal ball and tell me if we are going to go up 500pts or go down 500pts so I know to buy HXU or HXD lol

[nobb]

For those of you who hold PMT, Im wondering what your game plan is? Hope that NG prices will rise and sell off in the winter when prices are at a maximum, or keep holding onto PMT past that? PMT is at a great price right now of $4.80 and the dividend yields are good, but Im worried the dividends will get cut in 2011 if NG prices do not recover. Here's a good article on one investor's analysis of PMT:

http://www.beatingtheindex.com/stock-picks-perpetual-energy-tsepmt/

Im still not sure what some of you are basing your prediction of PMT doubling within the year though...

[SilverRex]

quick mid week update

dollar index remains bearish until signs of a reversal rises, from my last chart the wave .v has begun and price put in a mini 5 waves under 79.20, the dollar index may have bottomed based on counts, so until the dollar at the least re-captures above 80.10, I'll continue to see dollar remain in this bearish trend. If current area does not offer support, next level is an all important 78% fibo near 77.25

Gold continues to be bullish, though I do expect at any moment we will see a pull back, but not until the trend breaks. support has formed at 1262, 1282, and now 1300. until you begin to see those area break apart, gold will contine to move 2 steps forward and 1 step backward here.

oil, while it did take out the 77 resistance, I would not call it bullish right away. Id take more of a neutral stance, and unless it can turn 77.8 into support soon, price may have hit over sold and begin to cripple. watch the 77 area closely, if this does not hold up, my bearish view will be back on the table. My ideal view is to see oil at least put forth one final sell off under 69 before completely looking to the upside for good.

NG, is the one chart I'll throw up here using UNG. the count hasnt changed, it does look like NG at any moment about to comete the .v of (v) of [V], we also have a gap to be filled above 6.50 so its only a matter of time until that hapopens. earliest sign the bottom is in? we'll need price to close above 6.50 until then, remain calm and wait for the signal, otherwise NG could still trace out a bottom below 6.18 and force a divergence.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung092910.jpg

[yellowsnow]

I'm in HNU at 3.79. hoping tomorrow brings good news.

[997TT]

fawk.... $3.71x3.72

really tempted to buy back in and flip.....arrggghhhhh

edit: bidding 4k shares at $3.65....cmon intraday dip. haha...just can't resist

[nobb]

Woohoo, 14.5% gains in the last 3 days with WFE. I'll be looking to re-enter if it goes near $5 again and hold it towards the winter.

Im really tempted to go into HNU at this point, but after being burned 3 times previously...I'm hesitant. Just when you think HNU is at a bargain, it always manages to surprise you with more losses.

[mr2mike]

Another good drop in HNU :eek:
So tempting.

[997TT]

Logged into TD to see where my order filled given the disappointing inv reports.

4k filled at 3.60. Cmon u pos commodity

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

NG is moving to a final low as expected. Let see if we can get some sort of reverse mid day

[skandalouz_08]

What's your prediction for oil. It was almost up $2 this morning but is now coming back to the high 78 low 79 range. Has it taken out the resistance needed to test $80 oil?

[guessboi]

I am so tempted to go HNU with you guys again. :rofl:

[max_boost]

Just wondering if anyone out there buys HND? Seems like a solid choice? lol :rofl:

[max_boost]

HOU!

Anyone? haha

[Meback]

^ I m losing my pants and shirt on hnu, I might buy more shares later, but I m hurting pretty bad.

[Rat Fink]

.

[themack89]

Originally posted by Rat Fink
Stay emotionless and treat it as a strictly numbers game right from the start. Plan a course of action for if your prediction is right, and always plan a course of action for if you are wrong in your prediction. The biggest gainers are also the best losers.

This is why most people will fail though.. It's too difficult to go emotionless when they see the $ sign beside those numbers.

It helps to change your perspective. This is a game, it is not your retirement or your weekly paycheck or your rent. These are not dollars, they are "points" required to play the game.

I made the transition after doing high volume day trading; I started off trading 100 shares where losing $3 was a big loss. By the time I left I was trading 5-10k shares at a time and there was no more fear. It totally numbs you to the sense of loss and sense of money. $100k suddenly becomes "buying power", not a nice payment on a house. Its weird... Very weird.

I think if you want to succeed, you need to change your frame of reference.

[SilverRex]

Hope everyone had a good weekend, we are officially in october, if the market continues to hold or grind sideways without any significant selloffs, then a new rally into 2011 may have started for most sectors.

looking at the dollar index this morning dollar as I've suggested for the past weeks or so continues to remain bearish, and there does not seems to be any signs of life, pattern looks like the dollar is in a descending wedge, and could breakout any moment, next target low could be around the low 77s area, imo I would say the dollar is done if it does not hold above this area, anything lower warns a new low is upon us, still, it could still offer up a good short term rally.

I am not too sure how much more can the dollar give up before putting in a correctional rally (assuming dollar's days are numbered, and it has been so for years now) short term I am look for the dollar to breakout of the wedge and move side ways for a week, critical area for dollar to gain bullish momentum resides above 80.08 until we see this, bias is short on the dollar until otherwise on any rally.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar100410.jpg

gold, remains bullish, and as those who trade the trend knows, a healthy uptrend sees new highs without breaking prior highs, every support created as a result was not broken. I said, an early sign that gold may have exhusted its move short term is to watch these support break, and so far last week we've finally have our first support break down at around 1300, so take caution longs. Gold may be ready to take a bit of a dive, and could without warning retest the 1282 or even the 1262 area, for now I dont see anything lower than 1262, and if 1260 give away, then the retracement will be steeper than expected, but for now, gold is bullish, and more than ready for a larger correction.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold100410.jpg

looking at oil, I was surprised how strong it has become, while it has not achieve a new high above 87, it has certainly defy a few critical area where normally it would have held if oil is in a strong down trend. So a warning sign that energy could have bottomed at 67, and ready to embark on a monthly rally. To me, Id say oil is neutral at the moment, will bring the bearish view back on the table if similar to early august, if oil cannot hold above the circled support at 78, for all we know oil could still be tracing out a higher high above 83 and still move down below 67 as a very drawn out correction. I know the longer term bias is bullish, however we may not get the selloff we wanted so until then look to start adding to your position around important supports. one at 78, and the next is at the breakout neckline near 80, these area should also act as your stop loss, if oil has bottomed and this is a rising up trend into 2011, these support level should hold strongly, otherwise what we saw from mid May to Oct is simply one giant correction with another low on the horizon.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil100410.jpg

[SilverRex]

finally on Natgas or UNG, looking at UNG, didnt really like the chart on natgas via stockchart.com, the way it reports the contract months appears to be off in my books, so please bare with me.

No surprise here, similar to the last chart I posted last week, UNG (natgas) appears to have made its final low and is quite ready to turn around at any time. it has moved into a wave .v of (v) of [V] imo

while it can still push off to another new low, I believe the momentum is dying, there will be plenty of clues to see NG sling to the upside, first sign is closing above 6.2 UNG, there is a gap left just above above 6.50 that needs to be filled, I am sure by the time we fill this gap the trend will have started. Strong signs for a bullish move include price re-capturing above 6.8, then 7.23 and yet we still havent really broken out until price moves ahead of 7.6

risk takers will begin accumalating their position at current areas and buy as price moves down. For the conservative mind, wait until the 10/20 EMA crosses over then position yourself with a stop loss under the newly created low. Again in summary, NG EW count suggest, it has moved all it needs and is ready to turn around at any moment. The only thing is unless we have an EW extension, but that would imply NG going much much lower, I dont envision this since we are now in october and winter is amongst us, it just wouldnt add up with NG taking a dive during its typical strong seasonal. so I am sticking out my neck in saying NG is ready to turn the corners here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung100410.jpg

[997TT]

Cmon u fkn pos commodity NG.
Down 0.20 ... Exactly what I hoped to flip it for. Oh well I'm willing to wait ....

[kaput]

.

[djayz]

Gold just exploded, sitting at 1325 right now!!!

[mr2mike]

I don't get it, so is NG going to be cheaper than anything soon? Guess, I don't need to turn my heat off, ever, this winter.:dunno:

[FlamingC19]

Read and article in the Herald today where analysts say to stay away from NG for awhile now. They said we could see it get even lower then this. I dunno if I should sell my shares now or wait it out a bit.

[max_boost]

Buy HND! :devil:

[troyl]

Do any of you guys use a streaming quote service? I use RBC action direct, but never reach "active trader" status therefore I am unable to get their streaming quotes. What site/program do some of you use? and what do you pay monthly for it?

[SilverRex]

As per my last chart on the dollar index, it nearly broke out of the descending wedge, unfortunately it was unsuccessful and price has since continued its decline to a newer low. Nothing has changed until it can breakout of this pattern, dollar remains bearish and I will stick to it being bearish until I see signs of a bullish move which requires it to at least recapture above 80, until then my expectation is for price to break out of this trend since majority of these descending wedge usually results in a counter trend rally. so my nearterm expecation is to see price move back towards 80, and given its momentum, price will quickly find a top and sell off resumes

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar100610.jpg


as for gold, very surprised at how much strength it has, although I did caution that at any time gold is ready for a pull back to the 1262-1282 area, however over all trend is bullish, on the higher level, it has moved into a new trading range and if gold does not pull back soon a few weekly or monthly close above this blue upper neckline could result in price pushing towards the top of the channel which resides near 1455-1500 area.

critical support for now remains at 1262 if this gives away, then a more significant pull back is underway, until then look to capitalize on each significant swing pt low as a good pick up

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold100610.jpg

after revising my call for oil from being bearish to neutral, we have realized the 83 zone pretty quickly here. however until I see 83 becomes support, oil remains neutral in my books, because of its over bought condition, price is hessitating around 83, it can see sell off again, after all, looking at the past months, oil did nothing but move side ways, meaning people are range trading this, so 80+ oil could be a sell signal for most. I will not call oil bullish until I see price break aove 87, and even then we would wait for a retest for entry. I would either sit on the side line and see how oil reacts at 78 oil or go short with a tight stop at current levels. the 83 area happens to also be the 78% fibo retracement of the 87 to 67 move. So its definately all the markings of dropping the shoe on us at any time.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil100610.jpg

[SilverRex]

NG will look very good if it can break above 6.25 on UNG, gap still needs to be filled in the 6.5x

[997TT]

woohoo...finally up on HNU
lets push $3.80 so i can sell this pos....and walk with weekend play money.

[themack89]

lol @ gold going parabolic..

CNBC pumping that shit hardcore. Probably time for a short soon

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by themack89
CNBC pumping that shit hardcore. Probably time for a short soon

Yup. Fast Money loves Gold right now. But they also loved Goldman Sac's and Fannie Mae ;)

Pretty quiet in here today.... everyone shower with a toaster after HNU tumbled again?

[max_boost]

Oh baby, why is HND so good. lol

[gyu]

Originally posted by mr2mike


Yup. Fast Money loves Gold right now. But they also loved Goldman Sac's and Fannie Mae ;)

Pretty quiet in here today.... everyone shower with a toaster after HNU tumbled again?
Yup... :facepalm:

[max_boost]

Alright so are we gonna see a multi day decline here? What the charts say? Where's the resistance?

What does the Dow/TSX have to fall through to trigger more selling?

[mr2mike]

You mean support? Off the daily is at about $3.30. But in reality, there is no support for anyone holding this longer than a day.

What I don't like is that a year ago, people would say the $5 range is the support. But now look, it seems to find lower and lower lows.

Can it hit $3? I don't know.

Where are the days when this would turn around for double digit gains. I haven't seen a double digit gain (% wise) for awhile in this.

[997TT]

Next bounce to break even for me I'm dumping this pos.

[max_boost]

I was referring to the market indexes.

As for HNU/HNDI buy very little of. 1000 shares here and there just to mess around and mostly HND and it hasn't failed. I don't have guts to hold it any longer and I don't have guts to buy more lol :rofl: :(

[tryingtobebest1]

You can see doble digit movement in hnu today! But not up again, fraking down. Un freaking belivable!:zzz:

[max_boost]

You look at the futures and there's some contango action.

Nov $3.60
Dec $4.00
Jan $4.23

I don't know about you guys but if $3.00 nat gas is coming, HND all the way. :bigpimp:

[997TT]

i just got my "HNU" tatoo.
plan on getting a sticker for my car too.....

you guys think a nice windshield sticker (the ones that go horizontally across at the top) like the guys who have "CIVIC" across their windshield or a little more subtle like the ones behind the front wheel well

look for me on the streets guys .... HNU4LIFE

[e36bmw///]

nm

[mr2mike]

Nexen Marketing update for the week (pdf).

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=RMZ85JCK

[themack89]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-2341-1

lol

[FlamingC19]

Any insight into NG? Are we gonna see more of a decline here? Thanks SR

[SilverRex]

after a long weekend, (in Canada) back to work.

the dollar index appears to have broken out of a funk the neckline that has been pushing it lower and lower is now broken to the upside. while that does not immediately show strength since its overbought at the moment, my expecation is, we may have A bottom just under 77. My key resistance is around 80, only when dollar breaks above this would I begin to believe the dollar bulls are back on the saddle, until then, I am giving the dollar a neutral stanze but am expecting it to start move back towards 80 which would of course make it very interesting. look for a dip which would then turn bullish in the short term imo

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar101210.jpg

gold has finally popped after consecutively pushing higher highs for most of the last few weeks. while my bias remains bullish the strong 40 dollar sell off could be an early warning that we may have also found A top in gold and begin a multi week correction. My initial thought is we would begin tracking out the previous high at around 1262, so look for price to reach around 1262-1282 in the coming weeks, while its nice to keep seeing new highs, but you know how gold works, after a while it would shake the tree and test a previous support. My idea of that would be seeing how gold when it first hit 1000 tested 700 which was a previous high, now seeing gold at 136x, I wonder how long before we get a chance to see it test 1000 again. the 38% fibo correction could just be around the corner, but until I see 1262 give away, I'll stick to a smaller correction

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold101210.jpg

oil while I said it is now neutral, and unless it can turn 83 into support which it didnt, I would not say it is bullish, infact for all we know we could continue to grind 10-12 dollar going sideways, looking at how oil moved in the last year, we could be at the high point which will cause alot of sell into strength. again its 4 dollar drop would be significant enought for me to suggest oil isnt pushing higher any time soon. Id look for price to head lower once it runs out of buyers. my eyes will be watching the 78 area, I need to see this area break before suggesting further lows ahead. until then id watch it closely, probably not a good idea to go long, but shorting is equally risky unless your willing to put out a stop above 87 oil instead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil101210.jpg

[guessboi]

tk God I didn't buy HNU.
I sold my HND at 8.5 :banghead:

[max_boost]

Holy christ 12,700 TSX.......I don't get it. :nut: :eek:

[BigMass]

Originally posted by max_boost
Holy christ 12,700 TSX.......I don't get it. :nut: :eek:

Pretty simple really. There is a currency war going on out there among all fiat currencies. The winner is the one who can devalue the fastest. Everyone is doing it and nobody is safe so everyone with cash is dumping it into anything they can. Gold, Silver, the stock market… Anything to get out of cash. Next to the US dollar, the Canadian dollar has been one of the worst currencies to own as of late so I’m not surprised at this run-up. In relation to gold, the DOW and TSX are actually under performing. Showing that the markets in fact are still weak and only rising nominally.

[broken_legs]

Google Trends:


"Gold Investment"

Look at the countries that are searching for this. North Americans have no idea....
http://www.google.com/trends?q=gold+investment&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0


"Gold Price"
http://www.google.com/trends?q=gold+price&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all


Watch the search trends change to see when we get to Gold Mania.

"Beyond.ca"
http://www.google.com/trends?q=beyond.ca&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0



Finally - Is anyone buying Precision Drilling???

[SilverRex]

with a skyrocketing gold price, the next 6-8 months would be great for junior gold producers.

from what I've gathered, here is a good list of them

The list of junior producers

IPT
ECU
GOZ
SPM
GBG
PNP
ELR
AMC
AUN
EDV
AUN
APE
MDN
AVR

the more senior
TKO
MAG
YRI
AVL
GSC

The explorers
TUO
NTC
MSV
GMX
SKY

read that the next cycle high is june 2011, so the above will have potential for the next little while.

[SilverRex]

NG update: been hapering on this for weeks now, the count appears finished. even if NG suddenly collasp to new lows I think the selling momentum is coming to an end soon. if you look at NG chart on stockchart, even though it does not reflect the contract price very well, you can tell based on the latest moment, it is begining to feel more like a correction.

NG does not have a buy signal yet, but the over all look to NG or with UNG here appears our 5 waves down in this final wave (V) leg is way closer to being completed. I would take the first clue that the bottom is in by waiting for UNG to take out and close above 6.20, since this would imply we have broken the 10/20 EMA trend. Even if this happen, we can still get a good retracement but at least that would tell me the bottom should be in.

If you want to play the safe side, wait for the 10/20 EMA to cross over, once that happens, the 10EMA will become support then you can buy the dips near the 10EMA all the way.

NG will have plenty of upside once it gets going. but until then, remain patient, also, a bullish divergence is in the making which fits in nicely for a NG bottom.

I continue to believe we will see NG price higher than 6 dollars in the coming months. bottom picking is not as easy as most think. but I'll stick to my comments and wait for trigger.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung101510.jpg

[SilverRex]

On the dollar index, ive said that if price takes out 77, id start to change my bullish tone, even my original bullish tone was part of a larger correction that ultimately means I favor a weak dollar in the years ahead. The initial idea that the dollar is in its one final thrust may be over. and the over all chart here shows the dollar could already completed its wave (C) in an irregular 3 wave correction (cant rule out all of this up and down for the last 2 years is a major A instead as well, so either the dollar is ready to collasp to new lows or we will have continued side ways grind for another few years before a death drop. either way looking at the chart now tells me if dollar has indeed completed a 3rd wave top near 90, then we are in the middle of a wave iii collasp. obviously that includes counter trend rallies. so I have changed my tone to bearish, not because I was wrong but the selloff came early than what I had expected.

the only area that may prove otherwise to tells me upside can still be achieved is if price can regain above 80 in short order here. otherwise, what will happen is, most people wait for a good correction to the upside and begin selling the dollar yet again. the low level appears dollar is trying find a leg to stand on with a gap near 77 that needs to be filled. I am anticipating a semi rally back towards 80, then dollar should resume its decline into the new year.

other forces suggesting dollar's days are done would be, looking at the USD/CAD pair, the critical 1.1 area has been broken, and so the loonie is now on a course for new highs against the US greenback. Unless they come out with a new currency, for the months or years ahead, I favor a strong loonie. last official forecast in the business world suggest next year we are expected to see 1.15 in favor of the loonie.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar101510.jpg

with oil, I still expect price to retest near 78, the only question is when. count looks like oil is ready for one more breakout, but that too should come to an end. unless oil takes out 82 imo, then the selloff begins, which ever comes first I say. my eyes still favors action at around 78. taking out 78 points to a lower oil price. but with how weak the dollar is, it may appear oil bottom is in and that a new trend is about to take place. Depending on how other things line up, my neutral stanze on oil could turn into a bullish one pretty soon here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil101510.jpg

[SilverRex]

gold remains bullish, and have been so for quite a while. the only thing I was hoping for was a significant pullback that never came.

looking at the chart today, the same pattern is about to begin, price breaks previous high at 1365, then turn that into support or a good buying area, then move to a new high. and this morning, it appears its doing just that. so 1365 is a good pickup, Id say, if this area cracks then the sell off is on, but until then, look for buying on dips continue to be the play here until we see more evidence of bearish signal.

over all trend remains bullish, while the 1377 area is important, and we were expecting a good 38% correction, that could bring it right back to 1000 gold. this may or may not happen, because if gold continues to climb higher, it can hit around 1700 before all of this is over, then the 38% retracement would simply be retest the 1265 area instead.

so my eyes are in the strong support area such as 1000 gold, 1265, and if gold moves further ahead, we could turn 1377 into a support pretty soon.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold101510.jpg

[SilverRex]

gold at 1365 does not appears to be holding, next area to test 1355

[SilverRex]

dow count also looks ready for a pull back. again expecting price to test 10700 soon, and depending if this holds or not, it would set forth further sell off, over all I am expecting any pull back to be simply a correction at this point. so worse case scenario is a 5-3-5 count, imo i believe we have just completed the wave 3 correction and now ready for a 5 waves down that could either land above or slightly below 9600 then I expect a new rally to take shape in 2011

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dow101510.jpg

[Beerking]

SR, what is your view on short term USD? Im headin to the Riviera in mid november....after todays CND$ fall Im wondering if we will see $CDN fall more over the next few weeks, so should I load up on my $USD now or waite until mid november for a better price..or is short term looking bullish for $USD? Advice?:)

[themack89]

The chance of winning a Long position in Natural Gas for the month of November is 44% according to the last 18 years.

*Edit. 44% Is less than half. You will be better off with a coin toss. Of course, thats only over the last 18 years. It doesn't predict the future.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Beerking
SR, what is your view on short term USD? Im headin to the Riviera in mid november....after todays CND$ fall Im wondering if we will see $CDN fall more over the next few weeks, so should I load up on my $USD now or waite until mid november for a better price..or is short term looking bullish for $USD? Advice?:)


right now I am changed my bias that the weakness in USD is coming in early, over all trend to me is weak USD anyways. but 76 area is important for USD in the short term, for the time being I am going to suggest this area to hold meaning USD should have a bit of a rally in the short term, long term implication points to a more severe weakening. again thats just my opinion and how I interpret the charts.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by themack89
The chance of winning a Long position in Natural Gas for the month of November is 44% according to the last 18 years.

*Edit. 44% Is less than half. You will be better off with a coin toss. Of course, thats only over the last 18 years. It doesn't predict the future. \\


44% average does not mean a thing in a stochastic process. To compare it to a coin toss would also be faulty as you are assuming Gaussian distributions. My take anyway... :)

[themack89]

Originally posted by DRKM
\\


44% average does not mean a thing in a stochastic process. To compare it to a coin toss would also be faulty as you are assuming Gaussian distributions. My take anyway... :)

Well, seeing as how it IS a commodity that is heavily dependent upon the season and supply / demand, I think it does mean 'a thing'.

Natural Gas isn't a stock, it's something people use to heat their homes. There is real supply, real demand.

According to the price, yeah it looks good to stop down trending and look for a run up sooner or later. But the fundamentals do not say that at all. (Which is why although I was Long NG recently, I am no longer.)

I think the coin toss wins today. There are other trades that are not like coin tosses, but more like rolling a dye and NOT landing on 5, I like those trades.

[SilverRex]

ok new week ahead let see what the chart tells us. I know I cannot be right all the time, so take this as just another opinion of someone who uses EW and some simple indicators.

late last week I suggested the 76 area should hold and still expecting dollar to move back up regardless of over all trend, sure enough it has regain a footing and has filled the gap at 77, next confirmation that dollar's short term rally may last a bit longer is the area at 78, need price to take this out to suggest further strength ahead, until then dont be surprised if the dollar sudden comes off again, one reason is a new gap under 77.2 as well this entire short run up could simply be just a 1st counter trend wave, a pull back then another run up. How little or big this rally is remains to be seen, but for now the double drip near 76.30 appears to be a solid short term bottom.

I'll look for a pull back then another run higher for the dollar index this week.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar101810.jpg

For gold, I suggested the importance of 1365 last week that if it does not hold, next target is 1355, since it cannot close back above 1370, then obviously the bearish view took shape. sure enough we got our 1355, it has also created some buying. 1355 is also a rising neckline, high level chart suggest the current rally is begining to be exhusted. for me personally Id rather believe in a larger correction that could bring us down to 1265. but we will monitor that, right now gold is still very much alive, this pull back could just be a blip and new high awaits, but if this sell off is an early indication of a larger pull back then gold should not take out 1370, in stead it should eventually top out in a day or two and break below 1355 once again, if this happens, then rest assure lower lows are coming. I still want to see this thing test 1265-1282 at the least.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold101810.jpg


oil has been some what channeling between 80-84 in the past week. but if dollar is to gain strength that should cripple oil's latest rally. until then you can trade the range but my own view suggest unless oil can crack 84.50, signal appears weak and ready to head lower. i am expecting abit of a small rally back to at most 82.50 then see it break 80 and to test the 78 that i've been harping on for weeks. how 78 holds should tell me if oil is immediately bullish or similar to gold a steeper correction awaits.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil101810.jpg


Using UNG to show NG movement on this chart. it is no surprise with NG touching near 3.5 this morning, after all if you go back a month or two, as soon as I joined the band wagon that there is a final 5 wave sell off in this wave [IV] we could see a dip as low as 3.3-3.5, I guess we are finally here.

based on wave count, unless i've missed something here, it really is running at the end of its course. I am going to say at any moment the bottom should be in. But I would not just jump in at current levels without confirmation.

There will be plenty of confirmation to suggest a trend reversal is in order. At the very least, wait for two days where we see a higher high form off a bottom to suggest a swing pt is in place., 2nd confirmation regulards price to take out 6.20 and remain above it. 3rd we should see 10/20 EMA making a death cross to the bullish side.

the gap at 6.5 to my view should be filled, its only a matter of time.

even with all of this happen, this would only imply a trend reversal in the short term, the bigger picture is where I placed the word BO in green, above that will signal a major breakout similar to when oil broke out of 45 and since then never looked back. that is what I am egaring waiting, until then everything between 5.6-7.2 can be quite volatile, perhaps range trading this is in order here. Again be ready, i'm looking at NG bulls will soon have their days

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung101810.jpg

[tryingtobebest1]

Hey SR, ive just noticed, the $natgas is went up almost 10% today, how come HNU still went down!?

[themack89]

Originally posted by tryingtobebest1
Hey SR, ive just noticed, the $natgas is went up almost 10% today, how come HNU still went down!?

Firstly I don't know what you're looking at but NG was not up 10% today.

Second of all, things like UNG and HNU will never really increase in value because they are always paying out the wazoo for futures rollover costs. This is why you can't long term invest in them, and this is why this is the short term investment thread. lol

[Vanish3d]

Anyone have any idea where FAZ / FAS is heading? financial 3x ETF

if SR or someone can give a brief tech analysis that'd be awesome

[max_boost]

^^

SR won't know but you are gonna get murdered playing FAS/FAZ.

Why? If you are down you won't sell and if you are up, you'll sell too fast. It's only evil because it's 3X.

Imagine the index goes down 35% in one day haha you'll lose 100% of your investment. 3X hahaha j/k
:devil:

[Beerking]

Originally posted by max_boost
^^

SR won't know but you are gonna get murdered playing FAS/FAZ.

Why? If you are down you won't sell and if you are up, you'll sell too fast. It's only evil because it's 3X.

Imagine the index goes down 35% in one day haha you'll lose 100% of your investment. 3X hahaha j/k
:devil:

LOL, could you imagine Jim Cramer on his show as the DOW plummets 35%??? He was hilarious enough during the flash crash...speaking of which, anyone notice the SPY afterhours yesterday?? Crashed 10% in 8 minutes:eek: Due to eletronic error... :facepalm:

Today was just the start, long overdue IMO.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Anyone have any idea where FAZ / FAS is heading? financial 3x ETF

if SR or someone can give a brief tech analysis that'd be awesome


Expect financials to go down.

All MBS is impaired now (look up mortgage-gate) Banks were already insolvent, now there is no question they are insolvent. I believe we could be on the edge of a cliff.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by broken_legs



Expect financials to go down.

All MBS is impaired now (look up mortgage-gate) Banks were already insolvent, now there is no question they are insolvent. I believe we could be on the edge of a cliff.

FAZ :D

[SilverRex]

update: dollar index was unable to sustain and maintain above 78, now is taking out the previous resistance near 77.65, if dollar index does not regain above 78 this morning, this rally will be short lived and will cause gold/oil to resume climbing higher once again

NG looks like it could produce one more minor dive to complete its count

[SilverRex]

update on NG / UNG

as suggested, the final dive is happening right now, as shown here which isnt really much different than previous charts shows its currently seeking out a bottom. it will be interesting with the inventory report this morning, will not rule out a sharp dive then reversal, be patient, earliest sign is to wait until price can either produce a swing point low by two higher lows on the daily chart or price closing above 5.71 (10EMA) to break out of this mini wedge, once this happens I would enter with stops under the new low which was established,

further confirmation will be price closing above the 20EMA at 5.90, 10/20 EMA crossing over, and every confirmation I Would begin to add further position

gap remains to be filled at 6.50, if price finds its way above 7.4, this rally will go parabolic, NG is known for sharp rises. I am still sticking to my idea of a double digit UNG price in early 2011

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung102110.jpg
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollarng.jpg

[SilverRex]

as you can see, since suggesting dollar can remain bullish if it can hold above 78, since it did not, it is bearish and looks like it will attampt to retest 76. for the time being, I will look at the latest up move to 78+ an ABC correction, cannot rule out a bigger correction can still be had, but short term dollar is bearish, it appears the neckline is broken and suggest a H&S top is in place, this would shoot the dollar right back down causing the market or oil price to push higher.

if 76 gives away, it could really fuel oil/gold

unless dollar can get back above 77.50, further lows ahead

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102110.jpg

[troyl]

93 BCF build in nat gas :( down we go.

[SilverRex]

did you know last years rise from 2.62-6.08, the 78% fibo retracement is at 3.36 we are extremely close to this, the next move will be a strong wave III taking NG back above 6

of course we will look at the confirmations of this move every step of the way.


that is why when the count was revised for NG to head lower I suggested a range of between 3.3-3.5 as my worse case sceanrio, we are here. now what lol

time to fly NG

[Konj]

Originally posted by SilverRex
with a skyrocketing gold price, the next 6-8 months would be great for junior gold producers.

from what I've gathered, here is a good list of them

The list of junior producers

IPT
ECU
GOZ
SPM
GBG
PNP
ELR
AMC
AUN
EDV
AUN
APE
MDN
AVR

the more senior
TKO
MAG
YRI
AVL
GSC

The explorers
TUO
NTC
MSV
GMX
SKY

read that the next cycle high is june 2011, so the above will have potential for the next little while.

Add NGD to the list. I watched the stock go from low $2.30 (about year and a half ago) to now high of $7.50. Too bad I am a student :cry: !

[max_boost]

Nat gas strikes again. I swear to fucking god the only good thing about that piece of shit is that you can buy HND. Too bad I only have 1000 shares lol :rofl:

[mr2mike]

I'm with you. Just when you think, naw man, NG can't go lower. I'm too afraid to buy HND.... it makes a big jump. Frick!!

[themack89]

I'm just wondering why is this thread addicted to natural gas? :werd:

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89
I'm just wondering why is this thread addicted to natural gas? :werd:


Post some TA or research on something else. Im all ears :)

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs



Post some TA or research on something else. Im all ears :)

Well..

Live Cattle tends to get weak from mid October to late November. However, I think we are seeing some ambiguity in the true strength or weakness of all commodities because of the rallying dollar (tends to pump up everything) which is why I am approaching this trade with a bit of caution.

The rally is losing alot of its conviction because of the reversing trend of Large Spec and Commercial holdings. Large specs tend to diminish their long positions while Comms tend to diminish their short positions during a sell off in Live Cattle. The last 3 reports have shown that Large Specs are once again diminishing their long positions just in line with Comms diminishing their shorts.

What they COULD be doing is testing the market to see if money will flow in or flow out and keep the rally going (a "dip" so to speak), but my bet is on the short side within the next few weeks.

I'd probably start shorting it now and see what the next report shows (released tomorrow).

P.S. Live Cattle was in a good sell off last year from Mid October until Mid November. After a huge rally like we have seen, and the possible 'beginning' of a reversal in Comm and Large Spec positions, I really love this short. The only thing that sketches me out is the damn dollar.

I could look up inventory reports but im too lazy

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/8562/93450213.png

[guessboi]

good thing I haven't touch HNU lately. but I sold my HND too fast last 2 times. :banghead: 8.03 and 8.5 respectively.

[kaput]

.

[nobb]

Just when you dont think HNU can get any lower, it always manages to surprise. Im so glad i got out at 4.5 when i still had the chance.

[Vanish3d]

feels like last year's crash all over again.
Im in HNU at 3.5 and at 2.8.... looking for at least ONE green day.....

[KappaSigma]

Anyone looking at Twin Butte Energy?

[themack89]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Anyone looking at Twin Butte Energy?

No, are you?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89


No, are you?

Not as good as your cattle futures contribution - But I'll still give you 5/10 for the effort. :)

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs


Not as good as your cattle futures contribution - But I'll still give you 5/10 for the effort. :)

To which nobody pays attention... many wouldn't care about a good trade if it hit slapped them in the face :rofl: Here at beyond we tend to care about the most exciting trade! Because the most exciting trade is where the money is!!!

lol

[themack89]

If anyone is interested... Here is the commercial holdings and what not of Live Cattle..

As you can see the last time the commercials and non-commercials (large speculators) hit these levels of long and short (right around beginning of MAY 2010), we followed through with a massive sell off (see chart posted above).

As you can ALSO see we are again at these levels and they are beginning to roll over.

As you can ALSO see this is why I have the right to troll this thread.

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/5641/43092194.png

[SilverRex]

From last week, I have suggested dollar's coming weakness and said unless it can close above 77.50, it will remain bearish, well it did close over 77.5 on the 1hour chart, but it was unable to sustain above it, we can see how important this area is, I imagine the H&S pattern that is on this chart continues to pooint to dollar retest the low 76s if not break it. So my bias continues to favor the downside. Chart shows a gap under 77.30 which could be filled this week before heading lower, now in the event that the dollar does suddenly suprise us with an upside move above 77.80, this entire rise off 76.2 could still be seen as a correction, the original idea that it would retest 80 could be in the cards then, but my bias has changed that the dollar'
s days IS numbered. Id be looking for shorting the dollar instead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar102510.jpg

Now as the dollar weakens, that should be good for oil and gold, and oil is currently channeling in its own pattern. It looks like it is simply consolidating for another major move breakout to the top side. Key support is at 78, as long as this area holds, I will look for a buy under 80 for a breakout above 84 and a retest of 87. The only question is if oil gives us a ABCDE count instead of a simple ABC.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil102510.jpg

Gold has made a good pull back down to the 1315 area, however it still does not denote a strong sell signal just yet, and so buying could instantly pick right back up. for all we know, the correction could very well be over. last week I mention the importance of the 1355 area, and clearly you can see price is still under that. And so my view is that for gold to complete its correction, price will be right back above it. it could dive back down to fill the gap near 1330, but 1328 or about needs to hold or risk lower lows.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold102510.jpg

[mr2mike]

Originally posted by themack89


Here at beyond we tend to care about the most exciting trade! Because the most exciting trade is where the money is!!!

lol

We're here to make money not, mooney :nut:

[broken_legs]

How to make some real mooney.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_wkgIzuqJM0w/TI4SO9VPA6I/AAAAAAAAF_c/PQRSzv3wqyA/s1600/KLEPTOCRACY4+copy.jpg

[broken_legs]

So what's the best way to take part in cattle futures?



Originally posted by themack89
If anyone is interested... Here is the commercial holdings and what not of Live Cattle..

As you can see the last time the commercials and non-commercials (large speculators) hit these levels of long and short (right around beginning of MAY 2010), we followed through with a massive sell off (see chart posted above).

As you can ALSO see we are again at these levels and they are beginning to roll over.

As you can ALSO see this is why I have the right to troll this thread.

http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/5641/43092194.png

[TsMortgages]

Just taking a look at this HNU stock you guys are talking about. How come so many of you are interested in it? is expected do something positive?

[ExtraSlow]

HNU isn't an equity stock. You aren't investing in a company.