Official Short-term Investments Thread

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs
So what's the best way to take part in cattle futures?




I think you just answered your own question there lol..

Cattle futures is cattle futures. Futures are leveraging devices, use them as such and be cautious.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89


I think you just answered your own question there lol..

Cattle futures is cattle futures. Futures are leveraging devices, use them as such and be cautious.


Right...


So for the other 90% of people who read this thread and don't have access to trading futures through their self directed brokerage accounts, do you have any advice - Or did you just post up a trade that you know 90% of people on beyond won't understand and can't even take part in?


http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/hnuto.jpg

[SilverRex]

looking at UNG, yesterday's a bit of a rebound looks encouraging. While overall, nothing has really changed, but the fact that we are now in a .v of (v) of [V] tells me we are very close to a big reversal. initial the (v) count was first thought to be at 5.88, but I said unless we get a eillot wave extention in this case we had a wave .iii extension and possibly also a wave .v extension which could still drive NG a tad lower, market always want to trap as many sucker in and take out as many bulls as they can before a big reversal,

if there was one more dive, price should remain below 5.60, I'll consider a bottom may be inplace if it can close and remain above 5.60 for 2 days. Then we will look to the next confirmation for price to reach above 6.00, 10/20 EMA crossing over etc etc. Note again, there are a few minor gaps to be filled, a bigger one still at around 6.50

in summary, NG has gone low enough and long enough, expecting things to happen quite soon here.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung102610.jpg

[davidI]

Interesting:

http://www.businessinsider.com/buffetts-favorite-valuation-metric-says-stocks-are-now-expensive-2010-10

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by davidI
Interesting:

http://www.businessinsider.com/buffetts-favorite-valuation-metric-says-stocks-are-now-expensive-2010-10

I would agree but now the situation is a bit different, its shifting from public to private and a flight to quality. global currency devaulation, will throw that out of whack. soon we could see a day where the percentage of that chart will be north of 200% thats when inflation gets into high gear, the next collasp will be a big one, but until then, watch the market continue to push higher and higher. The entire market has became a hedge against the gov, not just gold anymore.

[SilverRex]

feels like dollar is ready resume decline, gold/oil to rise and NG definately begins to look very interesting

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs



Right...


So for the other 90% of people who read this thread and don't have access to trading futures through their self directed brokerage accounts, do you have any advice - Or did you just post up a trade that you know 90% of people on beyond won't understand and can't even take part in?

Unfortunately I cannot find any ETF or stock that I would want to recommend to follow Live Cattle. If your research tactics for ETF's and what not are more diligent than mine, maybe you could find something. Teamwork!

But in all seriousness there's a reason I don't like ETF's and equities (the bs like you see with UNG where its losing a TON of value due to roll over, big buyers and sellers, manipulation, influence from indices, the tendency to be traded by algorithms, etc). If anyone is serious about their investments and such, they would take serious steps to get the proper tools etc to do their biddings. In my opinion of course.

[davidI]

^ Can you point me in the best direction to research futures trading? I've seen all of the listings at CME Group, but how does one actually go about making the trades?

[djfob]

I could have swore the price of NG yesterday was 3.3x but today it somehow changed to 3.7x. I know it didn't go up .40 because HNU didn't go up much at all.

[max_boost]

Look at natural gas futures my friend.

[troyl]

Originally posted by djfob
I could have swore the price of NG yesterday was 3.3x but today it somehow changed to 3.7x. I know it didn't go up .40 because HNU didn't go up much at all.

We are trading the DEC contract now.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by davidI
^ Can you point me in the best direction to research futures trading? I've seen all of the listings at CME Group, but how does one actually go about making the trades?

Don't you use IB? When I was signing up you just ask for futures to be available to trade. Just like how you ask for options. Same deal.


Placing a trade is pretty much exactly the same as in equities and such.

[davidI]

Yes I do use IB. Thanks! I'll have to look at my profile settings. When I started trading I just wanted to stick to Canadian Equities. Now I'm thinking about moving into some Forex trades and futures...

[SilverRex]

UNG finally gave us a swing pt low on the daily chart, however not out of the woods until it can close above 5.60, until then, we could be subject to another mini sell off to a new low.

If and when 5.60 is broken to the upside a close above this will put the recent low in place. then we can look up to the sky and say Amen! :)

[Sasuke_Kensai]

^Will that save PMT? lol - a little sore in the behind...

[djayz]

Originally posted by Sasuke_Kensai
^Will that save PMT? lol - a little sore in the behind...

:thumbsdow NG is just killing everything and everyone this time around. PMT is getting slaughtered today as am I holding this damn thing!
Let's hope for the NG demand to start rising and hopefully PMT can get into an upswing and get back into the mid 5's by year end.

[JDMMAN]

Yeah PMT is killing me too.... luckily in my RRSP portfolio right now

[KappaSigma]

I dont mind if they cut the dividend to have more cash available to develop their oil prospects and balance out their production into oil from just mainly NG. Provides a more steady NG. The way I see it the management team is so strong and smart and with the assets they have it will be fine in a long term. If it dicks into #3 range I am buying more.

[troyl]

Hmm I wonder why PMT is getting hit so hard today, gas is holding up okay today. Maybe I should sell CLL (that dog) and take a position. Anyone here holding CLL?

[KappaSigma]

I am liking the 12 month positive outlook for NG futures today.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html

I have also heard talks that due to price, many companies are budgetting less capital to NG for 2011 so new production being brought on should decrease versus this year where it was the highest rig count (even mroe than the boom years).

[SilverRex]

UNG finally broke above 5.60, a second sign bottom may be in.

next confirmation is to break above 5.73 which is the 20EMA, the more confirmation, the higher probability bottom is in place.

expecting UNG to find its way back to 6.5 in due time

[SilverRex]

with the break above 5.60, its does looking like bottom is in and NG is more than ready to turn around for the next few months.

looking at the chart
we have a registered swing pt low established at 5.20, a break above 5.60 which took out the 10EMA

I am going to stick my neck out by saying our 5 waves down is now completed. we should now begin to see a mini 5 waves up for a wave (i) and steep sell off then a powerful thurst for a higher degree breakout

initial target for me is at 6.50 to fill a gap,

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung102710.jpg

[nobb]

Interesting read on PMT:

http://www.beatingtheindex.com/perpetual-energy-update-eric-nuttal-and-his-lemmings/

How its share price is going to be affected by the possible dividend cut, I wish I knew.

[DRKM]

Originally posted by davidI
Yes I do use IB. Thanks! I'll have to look at my profile settings. When I started trading I just wanted to stick to Canadian Equities. Now I'm thinking about moving into some Forex trades and futures...

Just remember that when dealing with Futures and Forex the Leverage you can get is INSANE. I mean super insane.

[davidI]

Originally posted by DRKM


Just remember that when dealing with Futures and Forex the Leverage you can get is INSANE. I mean super insane.

Yea, I'm not going crazy on margin at this point!

[SilverRex]

come on NG, crack 4.00 :)

UNG looking good today, need a close above 5.72 to attack more bulls,

as long as 5.53 holds, NG is currently bullish

[997TT]

Yesterday + todays open is encouraging. Still a while to go before breakeven. Haha

[djfob]

Originally posted by nobb
Interesting read on PMT:

http://www.beatingtheindex.com/perpetual-energy-update-eric-nuttal-and-his-lemmings/

How its share price is going to be affected by the possible dividend cut, I wish I knew.

I too was a sheep too but sold then bought hnu which is paying off at the moment.

[SilverRex]

as I have suggested, NG may have bottomed and as a result looking at UNg, you can clearly see the movements are nothing but bullish, right now key support still stand at around 5.53, so long this holds, we will continue to see NG march higher, complete a wave [III] top a wave [IV] drop then resume upwards

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung102910.jpg

[FlamingC19]

So tempted to jump back into HNU but hesitant because I got burned so badly last time!

[themack89]

Looks like my live cattle is unfolding nicely so far!

As for NG: If you keep saying and thinking and hoping it stops going down and starts going up.. well... eventually it will! :clap:

[SilverRex]

Good morning, hope everyone had a great halloween weekend, lets look at some charts today. starting with the dollar index, as you can see, every since dollar made a correctional push at 78.40, price has been grinding side ways. over all feel to this remains bearish, I would only consider dollar back on the bullish wagon if it can close and sustain above 80, but until then it does look like dollar is ready to head lower, however my alt count suggest the dollar could still linger further back above 78+, every move in either direction appears to be 3 waves only. a 3-3-3 zig zag? so I'd imagine if dollar does move back up it will be in another 3 wave fashion. look for price at 77.2 as clue, if dollar takes this out, Id expect it to move right back up. Again over all look remains bearish, (ready for collasp) I guess its just waiting either for the right top out beyween 78-80 or perhaps timing.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110110.jpg

For gold, my expectation of a reversal H&S (not sure if I mention it, but my last chart suggest a up side breakout, while it tried to fool everyone but making a near double bottom near the 1317s, price eventually did ramp back up to the top side. the breakout above 1345 is encouraging for bulls and so my view is as long as the 1345 holds, id expect a bit of a minor correction to continued advance right back to record highs. However, the flip side, if 1345 fails to hold price, my alt count suggest we could potentially hit another 5 waves down below 1315 (perhaps the original asumption of a 1265-1282 retest is in order?) we will see, it would make sense for it to give us a retest to the support of signifcance such as 1265. Then make a strong rise into winter and give us 1400-1500.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold110110.jpg

[SilverRex]

Natgas as shown here in UNG, made some head lines last week by closing to a top side. the weekly chart closing above the previous week's open is a very huge sign that NG may have turn the corner. On the daily chart, you can see price has clearly broken out. Because it ended the down trend in a 5 waves fashion, I have to call the bottom is in. and so my expecation is 5 waves after 5 waves to the upside.

If that is the case, UNG should not break below the 5.53 area, then id expect a pull back then launch higher.

this morning NG has made as high as 4.18, and since came right back down. the 4.2-4.23 area may prove to be a short term resistance, but i will expect in due time this will be broken and we should begin to see NG climb aggressively. This bottom of NG has been drawn out and quite painful for longs, but that is all part of the game.

I will begin adding more position with each confirmation, next up would be the 10/20 EMA crossing over

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung110110.jpg

[SilverRex]

finally looking at oil, oil continues to look congested but still within a flag pattern that should breakout to the top side, the only question is will this be a ABC correction or an ABCDE correction. we will soon find out. So long as price holds above 78 which to me is my make or break for oil short term bullish strength, i continue to expect we should see a higher degree breakout back to 87

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil110110.jpg

[SilverRex]

UNG is correcting, I would enter with a stop below 5.50, this move to the upside aint finished yet

[KappaSigma]

Call me a gambler but I bought a position today in Compton Petroleum for 48.5 cents.

[max_boost]

Oh fucking knew it. With the contango in nat gas prices, it strikes again.

HND +9% on the day. :rofl:

Too bad I don't have any but I must admit that part of me is rather enjoying just watching nat gas crash. :rofl:

[guessboi]

HND, HNU is a killer. Glad I am staying away. :nut:

[SilverRex]

a quick update on UNG(NG) while price has tested the 5.53 area that I said was critical to NG's rally, the current NG price has clearly violated this area, but the count was that it still had a bit further to go, but over all we can still expect a bullish momentum to resume once NG finishes its correction.

imo, NG may have already finished its first wave i up, and I said it will be follow by a steep sell off which is common for most first wave rallies, it can fall as far as 78% a fibonnacci retracement level. That would point to UNG as low as 5.33-5.36

therefore unless 5.3 is broken to the downside, my hopes for a big trend reversal remains on the table.

However NG isnt something you can just buy and hold, the contango and fees involved in trading the ETF or 2x ETF can eat you alive quick. confirmation would be the key as I've repeated many times, wait for the 10/20 EMA crossing over to the bullish side, it will then turn the 10EMA in to a support level and thats when you look for re-entry.

there will be plenty of chances to enter so add accordingly and not in one shot.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung110210.jpg

[SilverRex]

also heres a kick at the can on silver. while I mostly talk about gold, its no doubt both gold/silver is on a bullish ramping,

if you recall in my long term post, Ive always pointed to gold/silver going parabolic one day. my only miscount was further drawnout correction which never came, but I have since rewritten this idea and continue to favor the metals to the upside.

The fun is now with silver because of the ratio closing in to one day repeat the 1:16 ratio between gold and silver, that would mean silver will move drastically more so then gold.

looking at this chart which I have drawn some clues from other EW experts. I have come to agreement that the current bullish count is as follows

recalling a good breakout indicator many months ago if not a year agao I have said what silver tends to do is consolidate its own neckline then breakout one day, the circled green area denotes this exactly my point. it did this every time prior to a breakout and when it did, look where we are now, a very bullish rise out of the gates.

our previous top at 21.34 will be a major support. Right now silver has broken out of the current 2 year old trend channel and is carving out a new channel which will be even sharper, but low level suggest it is ready to finish its current 5 waves up for a mini wave .i and a sharp correction could bring it down as low as around 22x (obviously without breaking the prior high at 21.34) then silver will take off sharply this winter.

There fore in the short term I dont expect silver to push for too much higher, then a good correctional wave .ii, the next rally should push silver beyond 30 dollars.

current count so far suggest we go see silver as high as 50 dollars by early 2011 then a final significant correctional Major wave [IV] that could spent the majority of 2011 in correction mode (similar to 2008), then the final parabolic rise and if silver was to catch up to gold and give us a 1:16 ratio , we can then dream silver hitting as high as 150 an ounce.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver110210.jpg

[themack89]

Sorry boys.. Based off a lot of intuition and some fundys I wouldn't want to get long Natural Gas. There's too much riding against it. Theres a shit load of stored NG and theres no reason for speculators to be pumping this shit because there is nothing worthy of speculating on the horizon.

My bet is any up moves will be exhausted quickly because I'm guessing they would want to take advantage of any good selling opportunities that come along when they know the state of natural gas is not pointing towards rally mode.

Just my 2 cents

[max_boost]

I was gonna pull the trigger on 2000 shares HND but I'll wait to see what tomorrow brings lol

l

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by themack89
Sorry boys.. Based off a lot of intuition and some fundys I wouldn't want to get long Natural Gas. There's too much riding against it. Theres a shit load of stored NG and theres no reason for speculators to be pumping this shit because there is nothing worthy of speculating on the horizon.

My bet is any up moves will be exhausted quickly because I'm guessing they would want to take advantage of any good selling opportunities that come along when they know the state of natural gas is not pointing towards rally mode.

Just my 2 cents

Hard to say. I think the trend is that many companyes (majors and juniors) will sepdn their capital in 2011 towards oil drilling instead of gas. The result will be less production for oil in 2011, factor in with shale plays whom drop off in production is more than convention wells.... these two factors could lead to a big drop in supply for 2011 and a correction in supply vs demand for NG in later 2011. Some bigger companies have already started to shut in NG production. The more that gets shutin, the more price will slowly increase, thereby producers can make the same amount of revenue on NG sales with lower production. Also, much spec in 2010 drilling for NG was for companies to retained leased land as their were requirements to drill so many NG wells on leased land that was brought into play a couple years ago. I have heard many of these property requirements are ending in 2011.... Just all my spec and IMO.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89
Sorry boys.. Based off a lot of intuition and some fundys I wouldn't want to get long Natural Gas. There's too much riding against it. Theres a shit load of stored NG and theres no reason for speculators to be pumping this shit because there is nothing worthy of speculating on the horizon.

My bet is any up moves will be exhausted quickly because I'm guessing they would want to take advantage of any good selling opportunities that come along when they know the state of natural gas is not pointing towards rally mode.

Just my 2 cents

This has been the story since 2008. Nothing has changed, yet look at what NG has done in the last year.

[SilverRex]

Gold took out 1345, time for further correction

silver marching down as expected (21.34-22.x) would be a good buy area

[SilverRex]

mid week update on dollar,

looks like the correction isnt over yet, latest movement in the index appears to be ready to move right back up to the 78x area. this would put pressure on gold/oil

over all dollar remains bearish, we may still witness the dollar giving it one last kick at the can before she drops

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110310.jpg

[KappaSigma]

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=100890

Good NG article about hedges and the pressure they put on current prices. They are to run out this coming year, forcing many players to stop growth = increases in prices.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

just throwing this out in relation to the dollar index chart I just posted this morning. Top level looks like the dollar is in a wave (iv) of (I), once this consolidation completes the next target would point to dollar hitting between 74-75 since the initial down leg of wave (i) gave us about 8.6 pts. If count is correct, this current leg should also give us 8.6pts or greater.

willl only consider dollar bullish again if it can close above 80.8

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollartarget.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Hey SR, whats your prediction for Oil for now?

Is the resistance still at $87?

Or play it safe and sell half?

id sell half and lock the other half with a stop below 80.50 support.

since the dollar index looks corrective lately, any strength seen in this would force oil/gold to retreat

[themack89]

Originally posted by broken_legs


This has been the story since 2008. Nothing has changed, yet look at what NG has done in the last year.

I will believe you.... This time.

Chart certainly is ugly though... Choppy and droppy. Haven't checked cot reports

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by themack89


I will believe you.... This time.

Chart ... Choppy

Exactly why people like to trade it.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/NG1year.jpg

[SilverRex]

looks like NG is coming down for its correction as expected. Im looking at UNG to find a bottom some where between 5.3-5.4 area then make another big move north. Look for confirmation with price recapture above 5.5 first before entering.


didnt account for the wild swing on the fed announcement yesterday, I guess the dollar index took an early dive which just lines up with the target to reach level between 74-75 area before another signifcant counter trend rally

[997TT]

Anybody buying anything today?


I got out of hnu couple days ago... Down even more now.
Debating hnu (when will I learn, hgd or hod

[nobb]

Last few months, it seems like you'd usually make some pocket change just by buying HND on wednesday then flipping it thursday morning short term. NG is in oversupply and that's pretty much to be expected on every inventory report.

Either that, or thursday morning seems to be a good time to buy some HNU if you are expecting it to move up. Just bought 750 shares HNU right now.

[s_havinga]

Jumped in to some more HNU at 2.82 hoping for a quick gain and exit...

[max_boost]

What a day on the markets! Index at 12,900. :eek:

[max_boost]

Must be patient. This can't keep going up, or can it. :rofl: :(

I hate watching on the sidelines.

[BigMass]

Originally posted by max_boost
Must be patient. This can't keep going up, or can it. :rofl: :(

I hate watching on the sidelines.

Market is tracked in nominal dollars which really isn’t doing good at all in regards to dollar inflation and the price of gold. If the market is up %10 but the dollar is down %10 how much have you really made? The US dollar is toast and the Canadian dollar has been about the second worst performing currency recently. A few months ago the CAD was about %10-%15 more than the AUD. Now we’re worth LESS. It’s rather pathetic following the US into the abyss.

[SilverRex]

UNg finally broken above 5.50, the dip to 5.39 has satisfied a min requirement for this correction. As posted from my last UNG chart, the expected steep sell off may be over. Once we close above the neckline here the correction may be over and ready for the next up surge.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung110410.jpg

[themack89]

Commodity bubble anyone?

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
Must be patient. This can't keep going up, or can it. :rofl: :(

I hate watching on the sidelines.

I've definitely missed out on these recent rallies too. A lot of indicators have been showing the market as overbought but it can't keep going up forever. At some point, reality has to kick in!

[troyl]

Originally posted by BigMass


Market is tracked in nominal dollars which really isn’t doing good at all in regards to dollar inflation and the price of gold. If the market is up %10 but the dollar is down %10 how much have you really made?

If you are trading domestically ie in your countries currency and market I would say you are up 10% less the inflation rate, which i think is around 2%. Going back about a year from today the TSX is up around 15%, so I would say it is doing good.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by troyl


If you are trading domestically ie in your countries currency and market I would say you are up 10% less the inflation rate, which i think is around 2%. Going back about a year from today the TSX is up around 15%, so I would say it is doing good.

Yeah... Inflation is only 2% :rolleyes:

Maybe on useless consumer goods manufactured in other countries.

Try looking at things you actually need to live ie MOrtgage payments (house prices), gas, groceries, transit, clothing, utilities, commodities etc...

[SilverRex]

NG looking good this morning,

[bwling]

Anybody in Xcite Energy (XEL.V)? It's up around 130% in the past 3 weeks.

I must admit that I missed the boat on this one. I bought in twice and sold for quick gains too early both times. Wish I had stayed in. :cry:

[nobb]

WestFire Energy is also another one with high gains in the last few weeks. I wish I had held that one for longer. Bought at 5.00 and sold at 5.70 in 3 days, but never held it to 6.60 :(

Im glad I entered HNU at 2.79 yesterday. From the last few weeks trends it seems that between thursday and friday is the high for HNU, then starts dropping when monday hits. Will see how it plays out and possibly let go of it before the market closes today.

[s_havinga]

Finally some green in my portfolio! Haha, set up a stop loss on my UNG at break even.

[skandalouz_08]

Don't let emotion into your investing. Be happy you took your gains and not losses and move on. Just my 2 cents. When you always look at how much you DIDN'T make it starts playing games with your investing and you tend to get greedy.

Anyone here play options?

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by bwling
Anybody in Xcite Energy (XEL.V)? It's up around 130% in the past 3 weeks.

I must admit that I missed the boat on this one. I bought in twice and sold for quick gains too early both times. Wish I had stayed in. :cry:

Same. Oh well.

[KappaSigma]

I still like Compton for a longer time hold. They came out and continue to cut costs and improve effeciencies. Any sort of price increase and these guys run hard.

[dawerks]

I have been a gold bug for a while now. The Fed is screwed and gold is on a tear.

I just bought some YRI or AUY (US) again. They are producing 700K ounces, doubled their dividend and are decreasing costs.

It's due for a pullback, but last year at this time it took off to 15.00 and it had worse fundamentals.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by dawerks
I have been a gold bug for a while now. The Fed is screwed and gold is on a tear.

I just bought some YRI or AUY (US) again. They are producing 700K ounces, doubled their dividend and are decreasing costs.

It's due for a pullback, but last year at this time it took off to 15.00 and it had worse fundamentals.

I expect gold to make another high this winter possibly towards 1500, then correct most of 2011 while all miner and jrs will rocket.

the fun begins after the next big correction after topping out similar to 2008 which could set gold back 40-61% shake out of the decade, then go parabolic

[Seanith]

So wtf is oil doing? I thought ~$87 would be a resistance level and got shares of HOD. It would have only been a wise move for a few hours today lol. It ended lower. Should I stick it out for a week or 2 or does oil have long term gains projected?

[max_boost]

It's due for a pullback. I think HOD is a good bet here. :D

[themack89]

Originally posted by max_boost
It's due for a pullback. I think HOD is a good bet here. :D

Don't ever ever trick yourself by saying this. It will kill you eventually

Look at the chart on Cotton if you don't believe me

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by Seanith
So wtf is oil doing? I thought ~$87 would be a resistance level and got shares of HOD. It would have only been a wise move for a few hours today lol. It ended lower. Should I stick it out for a week or 2 or does oil have long term gains projected?


oil is reacting to the drop in USD.

If the dollar rallies, oil will drop. oil inventories are currently at the highest they have been in 2010.

[Proyecto2000]

Any one hear any chatter about Bowood Energy (BWD : TSX-V) lately? It's currently sitting at .40 cents and this past week I kept hearing from different, unrelated people that something good might happen in the next week or so and that it was a good time to buy for a decent flip :dunno:

[dawerks]

The H^U and H^D's are for real gamblers!

If you have any inkling of where something is headed, buy the leader in that industry (safe) or an up and comer (risky), but I would never, ever gamble on the double/triple hedge ETF's.

:nut:

[SilverRex]

after the unexpecting while swing as a result of the fed announcement, it kinda throw the charts a bit out of sync, but no matter, at the end of the day, price is more important than news, as it factors in the news accordingly.

with the dollar index our low came in the mid 75, if you compare the initial drop of the dollar from 88.70 to 80.08 and the second drop from 83.55 to 75.60 recent low is still less than the first drop, there fore if the dollar has entered into a new 5 waves decline, this current wave III is not finished at all. Target towards 74-75 remains on the table. unless of course the dollar has became bullish and we have further upside to consider.

So looking at the chart here, we can see a break out neckline is in place just under 78. and a immediate ressitance near 77.20, my take is that the dollar should resume its sell off after a bit of a rally here. however if price over takes 77.20, then bets are off and dollar is ready to test the 78 neckline. it is breaking the 78 neckline that will concern me somewhat, while over all trend remains bearish, I am looking to either 77.20 or 78 as a resumption of price to decline further. Higher level critical resistance still lies at 80.08, so bearish view remains solid

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar110810.jpg


as for gold, throwing a higher level chart up here. count appears 5 wave near completion, however lower level remains extremely bullish. While I am still expecting a pull back to the 1262-82 area as a retest/correction. To confirm this move we need price to swing back down below 1365 and stay there for a few days, otherwise expect momentum remains on the upside and quite possible turning 1385 into support. Its having a hard time cracking 1400 which is quite a mental barrier. if you see 1400 gets broken and turn into support it could lift gold another 50 dollars higher yet again.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold110810.jpg

last but not least oil, finally the consolidation pattern which I suggested previously played out perfectly, the upside breakout of this pattern and a retest 87 has now come and gone. Question is, where are we? well given my experience watching this pattern, typically I see after a breakout it would then retrace, with a gap near 85 that needs to be filled. and 87 being a previous barrier, my view is for oil to retrace down to the 80-83 area as a min. with a rising neckline near 80. it would be a good support retest. anything lower could warrant a further low, however if oil can break 87 and turn that into support, then it will just mean we have a few dollars higher to go before entering a correction . Oil can easily go both ways as it is waiting for the dollar index to decide if it is ready to decent to new lows. So if you have been following the pattern for a target price to 87, nice its the time to take some profit and either wait for re-entry or until we see 87 can be broken, even so, you can expect 87 becoming a good support and we should have plenty of opportunity to re-enter after

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil110810.jpg

[SilverRex]

As for UNG (NG) we had another encouraging close last week ending the week on the upside. The outlook at 5.20 is the low continues to be in place. With the positive divergence spotted underneath, price closed above 10EMA multiple times, I feel we are more than ready to see NG take on higher prices. The other question is not if but when. with price just sitting a tick below the 20 EMA, that will mark our next area of confirmation if price can close above that this week. it will be interesting to see how price react with the nearterm resistance at 5.84. Closing above this and turning this into support is important, even if price was rejected, I can still vision (in black) a correctional wave ii simply being drawn out further, once we can break above 5.84 we may be in the clear and further position may be added, last confirmation requires 10/20 EMA crossing over which is equally important then every time you see price test the 10 EMA that will be your re-entry

I am still expecting price to at the very least test 6.50 and fill the gap lefted there back in september. over all, I want to see price test 6.5-7.00 area, then pull back 40% then push higher and stronger in a fractal environment.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung110810.jpg

[Vanish3d]

did HNU do a 50/50 split? I really dont think I"m up 100% lol

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
did HNU do a 50/50 split? I really dont think I"m up 100% lol

yes it made a split or should I Say reverse split

[s_havinga]

So whats that mean exactly? In my case I have 700 shares I bought at 2.80, does that mean I now have 350 shares at market value?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by s_havinga
So whats that mean exactly? In my case I have 700 shares I bought at 2.80, does that mean I now have 350 shares at market value?

yes

[SilverRex]

update: nice opening on UNG this morning testing and also breaking slightly above 5.84, however gap between 5.65-5.7 may need to be filled. so watch closely, we may have to go low before going higher

[broken_legs]

OMG GOLD.


Gold is trading at $1411 CAD/Oz right now.

I guess i will have to start bring friends with me down to the coin shop.


EDIT:

ung AFTERHOURS printing at 5.95 right now...

[BigMass]

Originally posted by broken_legs
OMG GOLD.


Gold is trading at $1411 CAD/Oz right now.

I guess i will have to start bring friends with me down to the coin shop.


EDIT:

ung AFTERHOURS printing at 5.95 right now...

beyond meet at Albern?

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by BigMass


beyond meet at Albern?

See you there.

I was thinking that it would be pretty easy to just go first thing in the morning then maybe again later in the afternoon. I'm sure the staff changes out at some point.

[SilverRex]

NG looking strong yet again, feels great to finally seeing green on a day to day basis.

5.69 should be a great support right now, gap between 5.7-5.8 concerns me, who knows, we may now have to go way high before filling them perhaps.

[yoda124]

no mention of silver you guys?It's been on a freaking tear.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by yoda124
no mention of silver you guys?It's been on a freaking tear.

I touched on silver not too long ago, its definately kicked into high gear, but none of this was a suprise considering my over all expecation is to see silver hit 100-150 dollar/ounce one day.

right now silver is on a move to seek A top, I am expecting metals to give us one more major pull back similar to 08 in 2011 then give us a parabolic move

[max_boost]

Picked up a 1000 shares of HXD.

Markets have to give some back. :drama:

[max_boost]

Make that 2000 shares HXD.

Excellent.

:rofl:

[SilverRex]

has silver hit A top?

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver110910.jpg

[max_boost]

Yes I hope everything has hit a top damn it.

Gold/Silver/Oil/TSX/S&P/Hangseng EVERYTHING.

:rofl:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
Yes I hope everything has hit a top damn it.

Gold/Silver/Oil/TSX/S&P/Hangseng EVERYTHING.

:rofl:

as long as DOW closes the year above 10600, we will have new highs going into 2015-2016, meaning everything will rise continously, my fav would be china and canada

specificly, the energy sector, food and of course metals (when the price is right)

[max_boost]

OK but before it goes parabolic I just want to make a quick flip so I hope the market doesn't take it out on me. To be fair, it went from 11,300 to 13,100 and no pull back so just saying. :devil: :rofl:

[SilverRex]

wow, it sure feels great when things play out according to the script. My last post on UNG continues to follow thru, after an ABC correction to 5.39 I said it met the min requirements and appeared ready to surge, and so it has. closed above 6 today. Extremely encouraging. My last confirmation to consider the trend has changed is to see 10/20 EMA crossed over, if we can close above the 20 EMA which is at 5.73 for another day, our wish may just come true.

While there is a gap lefted near 5.70, I could imagine this being filled later. for all I know, if this is a start of a new up leg, then we should see NG continue to head north, bump into a few more resistance (fill the gap at 6.50) complete a 5 wave up move then finally fill the gap lefted at 5.7 either in a 61% or 78% fibo correction.

Time will tell if this is the script for the next few weeks. But NG is way long over due for its seasonal advance.

there is a slight chance our wave .ii correction may not be finished, if this is the case, price will quickly fall back to test the 5.5-5.75 area (which would be good because I hate seeing gap lefted behind), key would to eye the 5.39 low so long this continues to hold, I'll consider our low at 5.20 to be fimly in place.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung110910.jpg

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000
Any one hear any chatter about Bowood Energy (BWD : TSX-V) lately? It's currently sitting at .40 cents and this past week I kept hearing from different, unrelated people that something good might happen in the next week or so and that it was a good time to buy for a decent flip :dunno:

BWD : TSX-V 0.465 +0.045 +10.71%

I'm still on the fence about this one :dunno: