Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

A quick mid week update. My previous post suggested that if the dollar breaks above 77.2 it would seek out the bearish neckline towards 78, we had the breach and now price is ticks away from testing the 78 neckline. it would be logical to assume if dollar remains bearish short term, it would be a good swing point to have price rejected off 78 and right back down to low 76. However keep in mind, the previous low at 75.60 did not reach or fulfill its wave (iii) desired target level of 74-75, there fore my guess is the 78 area should hold and turn dollar right back into decline mode.

Still, if it breaks and turns the necklin into support in a breakout retest then surge pattern, then next move for dollar will be to test its critical make or break zone at 80.08 just like how I said 77.20 was a trigger, so is 78 and 80 and so forth.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111010.jpg

Quick commnet on gold, the silver chart I posted looks as though it is more near A top than a bottom, which suggest metals could run into a bit of a dry spell right now. with gold suddenly giving away 30+ dollars yesterday, the pattern so far suggest it wants to head lower. it has turned bearish short term and gold must reclaim above 1410 to resume advance for new highs, other wise my expecation is price to test a near term rising neckline just above 1385, then push towards 1365.

1365 could be a short term correctional bottom which would offer a good buy entry. At the same time similar to how I talked about with the dollar index, this area will also signal if gold wants to head lower. if 1365 is taking out, then it may open up the next floor towards 132x, then 128x, then 126x, you get the drift.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111010.jpg

oil has a similar pattern as gold, and it has filled the gap in the mid 85s I talked about last time. So now we will see which way it wants to go. Its probable it still wants to test 80 again, so unless it can turn around and break above 87.50, Id remain semi bearish short term for oil.

NG is moving beautifully with 10/20 EMA virtually crossing over this morning with UNG. I feel it continues to show strength. UNG next target is to fill the gap near 6.50, with 5.70-5.84 should now becoming a solid support.

[troyl]

Estimates for crude inventories were to have a build of 1.5M barrels. There was actually a draw of 3.27M. Nat gas inventories out today as well due to remembrance day. TSX moving up on that positive oil data.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by troyl
Estimates for crude inventories were to have a build of 1.5M barrels. There was actually a draw of 3.27M. Nat gas inventories out today as well due to remembrance day. TSX moving up on that positive oil data.

inventories out

"Working gas in storage was 3,840 Bcf as of Friday, November 5, 2010, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 19 Bcf from the previous week."

19Bcf compared to 67 last week.

let see what this will do to NG

[troyl]

Natural gas build of 19 BCF, estimates were 20 bcf.

Edit: Should have refreshed before posting ^^^

[mr2mike]

Damn, and I was ready to bet against HNU.

SR: Why would they have split HNU? Worried the stock will decrease to a dollar value too low? Or?

[max_boost]

Originally posted by troyl
Estimates for crude inventories were to have a build of 1.5M barrels. There was actually a draw of 3.27M. Nat gas inventories out today as well due to remembrance day. TSX moving up on that positive oil data.

Back at par. I hope the sell off resumes lol

[troyl]

Originally posted by mr2mike
Damn, and I was ready to bet against HNU.

SR: Why would they have split HNU? Worried the stock will decrease to a dollar value too low? Or?

That is my guess, and also when stocks fall below $3 investors are not able to use margin.

[broken_legs]

If anyone wants to play the index for the next couple weeks:

www.zerohedge.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/gono/POMO%20Schedule.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[troyl]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
did all of you guys already have your HNU adjusted to the split?

My account is STILL not adjusted. Can't even sell it

My account is also not adjusted yet, but you can always call in your sell order and they will be able to sell your position.

[SilverRex]

a quick update to gold since gold has moved pass the 1410 area which I originally said would be bullish, but since the dollar is still clinging to the 78 area, a possible breakout for a higher dollar would spell a bit of a drop in gold.

here we may have a extended correction. Which would make more sense, with gold's extreme bullish tone, I will allow gold to be in a 3 wave correction and so long as the new neckline just under 1415 holds, we should see gold drop back to test the rising neckline for another breakdown. Yesterday I Said to confirm the downswing we need price to take out 1385, it turned into support instead.

For the moment while I am bullish in gold/silver I do expect a small correction down to 1365 or even 1350, its under 1350 will I signal further weakness.

until then watch the circled area closely, that should give us gold's next move, unless of course the G20 would force gold in both direction which is near impossible to predict.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold111110.jpg

[SilverRex]

I wanted to bring silver up as well, just food for thought, the top we saw just above 29 could signal A top according to this chart, however we cannot rule out price to make on more move higher into the 30-31 area for a divergence then followed by a steep correction. Steep correction because if we are to take the circled area as our wave .ii correction in this up leg, our wave .iv correction could have an opposite effect. So keep that in mind.

This is also taking QuadG's irr wave .ii count which I respect very much when it comes to EW.

If silver continues lower, first I will look to 25 for support, then 21.3, however if the previous high at 21.3 is broken to the downside, my alt count could kick in.

over all feel to this, still expecting some more push higher thru winter to seek another top, then follow thru with a correction in 2011 that could test silver in the 21-22 area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver111110.jpg

[SilverRex]

after all these mid week update, I might as well throw oil in the mix too.

looking back it was a pretty good play when we had the flag breakout which called for a retest of 87. We got our 87, what now.

this breakout could be coming to an end and now I expect a good correction to take shape bringing us back down to 80-82 area as a healthy profit taking.

cant comment if oil could dip lower unless price cna take out 80, otherwise i would suggest if your in the green, take some profit off the table

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil111110.jpg

[SilverRex]

looks like the dollar is going to break above 78 for good, that would open up a retest towards 80 which will send gold/oil down as a extended correction.

UNG finally closing the gap I talked about near 5.7 and is also testing the 10/20 EMA cross over, I expect a bounce from here

[max_boost]

That's fantastic news. LOL

[SilverRex]

update: dollar couldnt make up its up if it wants to breakout or or head back down, hence gold is flerting with the H&S neckline and could go either way.

while my expecation is still to see gold test 1350-1365 before the next rally begins. watch it closely, imo if gold can recapture above 1400, this will spark things again to the upside, because this could signal nearterm correction is over and new high awaits.

will also update the dollar index chart on monday to reflect a change. it appears the 88.7 to 75.6 sell off could already in fact be a 5 wave completion, since looking at the movement in euro is quite obvious, over all feel is dollar is currently correcting, once correction completes, trend resumes = down that will pop gold/silver/oil all to new 52 week highs

[SilverRex]

gold unable to over take 1400, the original idea that gold needs to correct further remains in tact.

looking at silver, it too is moving in a similar correctional breakdown.

bullish now only if silver can take out the top of wave (B) otherwise expect price to test 25 for a good entry.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver111210.jpg

[nobb]

Good entry point for PMT right now? Sucks for those who bought near $5, but it seems that investors are probably over selling due to the recent Q3 announcement that PMT will be reducing dividends from 5c to 3c despite positive Q3 results.

This might be a long term hold though, unless NG prices experience a significant breakout soon. Long way to go for PMT to reach $5/share now...might take a while (if ever).

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by nobb
Good entry point for PMT right now? Sucks for those who bought near $5, but it seems that investors are probably over selling due to the recent Q3 announcement that PMT will be reducing dividends from 5c to 3c despite positive Q3 results.

This might be a long term hold though, unless NG prices experience a significant breakout soon. Long way to go for PMT to reach $5/share now...might take a while (if ever).

your right, the dividend cut has throw pmt into a volatile trading environment.

I still expect NG to rally siginficantly in the winter months, if by Jan pmt continues to struggle, i would sell

be sure to diversify and not have all eggs in one basket

[nobb]

Are you expecting PMT to reach a certain $/share by Jan to decide whether to sell or not? The dividend cut means that PMT has room to put more capital into new projects, but the results of these projects might take a long time to add value. That's why I see PMT as more of a long term hold than a short term one.

NG might rally, but as to how significantly is anyone's guess. It's supposed to be a cold winter, but this year there has been alot of drilling activity and hype around shale gas, which leads to oversupply.

[max_boost]

Brilliant day. -250pts. love it. :rofl:

[max_boost]

SR.

Gold at $1365 right now. So??? Further correct?

Oil down $3 to $85. Free falling?

Nat gas is a piece of crap. What's this rally that I swear everyone is talking about?:rofl:

[broken_legs]

i loaded up on UNG Dec 5.00 Calls today @ 0.60

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
What's this rally that I swear everyone is talking about?:rofl:

When everyone's talking about buying, I'm usually selling!

[SilverRex]

silver's a good buy between 25-25.8

[fluid]

think silvers gunna continue to drop off, or head up to 25?
at ~18.4

Hey weathers getting colder soo comeon NG

[max_boost]

C'mon.

WTH the markets doing up today. haha

Please correct yourself 10%. Thanks. :rofl:

[SilverRex]

like I said, im expecting silver to rally off 25.x and onto 30-31 then give a stronger correction down to 21-22. Next move will be another major one targeting 50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver111510.jpg

[SilverRex]

it appears UNG may be after a further extended correctional wave .ii, i've mention this possibility if price comes right back down. I wont become bearish unless it takes out 5.20, short term confirmation requires price to reclose above 5.70 for this to take place.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung111510.jpg

[SilverRex]

update on the dollar index, as I've said on friday, it looks like I may have have to recount the current waves. Comparing to the euro's movement, I believe dollar's initial 5 waves down is completed at 75.60 and currently on the early stages of a wave [II] correction which will be marked by a higher wave C in a few weeks. lower level appears congested and could fall at any time. This should give gold/silver one last thrust to the upside before a bigger correction imo, next sell off for the dollar index could be the move everyone's been waiting for, this could very well set up an explosion in oil/gold/silver for this winter.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111510.jpg

[max_boost]

'SR you sure about this huge 2011 commodity rally?

Silver at....$50??

Gold at $1800-$2000?

Oil $140 again?!?

:nut: :dunno:

Those commodity prices are gonna send the TSX to 18000 hahaha

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
'SR you sure about this huge 2011 commodity rally?

Silver at....$50??

Gold at $1800-$2000?

Oil $140 again?!?

:nut: :dunno:

Those commodity prices are gonna send the TSX to 18000 hahaha

thats what I have come to agree based on everything I've read and studied. Of course do your own DD,

oil and mining stocks (especially juniors) will have a huge year in 2011

we are 1978 all over again

I believe TSX will out perform DJI in the years ahead

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

looks like the expected 25 could be hit today, the low 25s maybe 'a' bottom for this correction.

if silver rallies off here and breaks and sustain above 26.50 then you know its ready for a new highs

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver111610.jpg

[Hi-Psi]

I apologize for the double posting of this but I figured this would be good to post in the short-term thread as well since peoples idea of long and short term might vary. Just trying to promote talk about some junior and big players as a lot of the talk in this thread has been about only 4 or 5 stocks in the last 6 months.

What's everyone looking at for the next 6-12 months? The market right now is a little sideways but that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made.

Right now I've got my eye on quite a few different stocks:

SU - Suncor (Steady growth/oilsands stock)

CPG - Crescent Point Energy (Good Yield/I think almost everyone in Calgary has bought into them at some point haha) Expected to do very well.

BSX.V - Belo Sun Mining (Diamond/Gold mining) Wish I had of bought last week when I wanted to as it jumped over 40% in the last few days of trading at the end of the week. Still expected to hit anywhere from $2.50-3.00.

UEX.TO - (Uranium play) Uranium is doing very well and although they are in a correction right now after a major gain I think they have nowhere to go but up.

TBZ.V - Tonbridge Power (Green Energy) There's been a lot of talk about this stock and many are predicting at least a double for this stock in the next year with the possibility of hitting $6-8.

SPM.TO - Scorpio Mining (Junior Mining company I'm keeping my eye on. A lot of anaylists saying it's a strong buy and it's only going up. Great graph over the last couple years.

GRC.TO - Goldstone Resources - (Gold Play) Again quite a bit of talk about them and a great graph. Gold still making a climb so most junior gold plays are expected to do very well.

TD - (Bank obviously) Buy it an put it away. Expected growth of close to $10 in the next year plus you get 3.2% yield. It's a little expensive but it's only going up.

What's everyone else watching or trading?

Jason

[max_boost]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
this might be a dumb question but,
say the US goes into hyperinflation.

Commodities should skyrocket, so what would happen to Horizon betapros?

It would send the TSX to 30,000 and the ETF's tracking it to the moon lol

[SilverRex]

silver at 25.x and gold now at 133x

while these would be a good entry area if this correction was minor. However, the dollar appears it may want to run now isntead of in a few weeks, this would mean everything is ahead of schedule = bigger correction now for silver/gold which could point to silver reaching as low as 22-23 and gold 1260-1300

in that case it would present a even bigger opportunity for the next rally.

oil is retracing down to the expected 80-82 nicely

[crxboi]

What are your views on Dow, SR? Bleeding continues or ready for a bounce?

[max_boost]

EXCELLENT!

DIE MARKETS DIE!

HXD FTMFW! :rofl:

[BigShow]

Originally posted by max_boost

Gold at $1800-$2000?


Bubble will burst before these numbers are realized.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by BigShow


Bubble will burst before these numbers are realized.


What bubble?

Gold has been slowly rising for a decade. It has trippled in 10 years. Thats equivalent to a 10% return per year as every mutual fund claims. How is that a bubble?

If you think a slow steady gradual rise in price based on fundamentals is a bubble, please define what is normal because I dont want to get caught in any of these bubbles.

http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/XAU_CAD10yr.png

[SilverRex]

Heres a look at oil, since my last post, was calling it down to the 80-82 area, as of this morning we have touched off 81.25 so as to meet my min target.

now the question is, are we done? or will there be further correction ahead?

we'll first we have to see price back over the down trending neckline possibly situated at 82.75, then we would need price to take out 84.5 to consider its ready for new highs.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil111710.jpg

[SilverRex]

another look at silver. we finally reached our target at 25, a double bottom appears to hold price up, now ideally we want to see price begining to climb and confirmation will come when silver can break above 26.50,

however since the US dollar had just broken above 79, it could dictate this correction further.

meaning if silver cannot over take 26.50, there is a possibility for it to head to the next major support near 22-23 area with 21.3 being a critical make or break.

yes what i am saying is, silver can go either way. the 22.x area would present a very good entry point but we'll just have to wait and see

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver111710.jpg

[SilverRex]

UNG should become bullish if it can close above 5.70 today

[Seanith]

How far do you think Oil will go before it starts to creep up again? $80?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Seanith
How far do you think Oil will go before it starts to creep up again? $80?

that would be ideal, right now I dont see oil going below 80,

dollar is generally weak in november.

I see oil/NG is ready to make a move here

[SilverRex]

here is my current oil bullish view, the last time I look at oil thru the summer I was expect more of a side way grounds between 20 dollars until this correction completes.

if count is correct then we can expect oil to finish its sub wave (ii) some where between 78-80 then take off. count may be japordized if price falls below 77.50 which could indicate we may be tracing out a larger ABC with C under 67.5, until otherwise, I'll expect the next major move is up and given the 1st 5 waves up = about 54 dollars, we can now expect a target of 126 in 2011

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oilbull.jpg

[max_boost]

What are the markets so excited for? The return of GM!?! :nut:

[bwling]

^ Has to do with positive developments on the Irish debt issue

http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/18112010/2/biz-finance-loonie-rises-hopes-irish-loan-weaken-u-s.html

[dawerks]

Originally posted by max_boost
What are the markets so excited for? The return of GM!?! :nut:

Um, the market has been in a bull run for almost a year now, where have you been?

Every pull back has been met with new highs. I feel bad for all the people that sold out 'back then' and missed out on the new bull run.

[mr2mike]

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=YU49KIR6

BP Canada - Market Update Nov 2010

[max_boost]

Damn, still gonna hold my HXD and wait for the markets to retract to 12,000. Who knows, I could be completely off here. :rofl:

[djfob]

Sold WTN a few days ago:banghead:

[dawerks]

Originally posted by max_boost
Damn, still gonna hold my HXD and wait for the markets to retract to 12,000. Who knows, I could be completely off here. :rofl:

We hit 13,500 before we hit 12,000

[max_boost]

Originally posted by dawerks


We hit 13,500 before we hit 12,000

So much optimism today with GM and bailing out Ireland it might just rally into next week. Who knows though, if 13,500 comes around, I'll just have to keep buying more HXD until I make some money on it. :nut: :banghead:

:( :rofl:

[SilverRex]

ok lets look at the dollar this morning. Looking back to last week, I mention the importance of 77.20 for the dollar index and how the dollar will retest 78 if this level is taking out, followed by breaking above 78 which was an obvious resistance, once price broke above 78 it then pushed dollar even higher. Over all I am still bearish in the dollar and look for price to retest between 80-81, so if the dollar is now correcting, we can then expect price to drop no lower than 77.60, it may even resume climbing higher if the correction completes today. This would mean it is trying to retest the previous breakout.

However I do have a alt count scenario marked in black. There is an out side shot that this latest top at 79.4 for the dollar is as high as she will go and the over all ABC correctional 3 waves could very well be completed. If that is the case, you will see price eventually maintain under 79.40 and break below 77.20 which was a previous resistance now turn into support. So pay attention to these levels. imo dollar will resume its decline if 77.20 is broken to the down side.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar111910.jpg

As for silver, ever since expecting silver to rally off 25, it has done so beautifully with price moving right back up to 27.4, not only that it also broke above the previous support at 26.50 which I suggested is important if silver bulls wants to see new highs. So my current bias is a bullish one for silver and appears silver will now have a mini correction that could either rally off 26.5 or even down to 25.60, as long as silver does not break below 25.40, I would suggest silver to be bullish

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver111910.jpg

[SilverRex]

a quick update on NG/UNG

we've had some encouraing upticks in NG lately and so far may alt count of having a wave (ii) correction at 5.35 appears solid. With UNG closing twice above the 20 eMA is definately a very strong signs that the next move remains upwards. Final confirmation would be today's weekly close. If ung can close above 5.91 and NG above 4.09 would mark another bullish buy signal for technical investors.

Even if that does not happen it does not mean any thing bad, I'll now look to 5.35 as our ultimate make or break, below this would trigger new lows, until then my expecation is a sub wave .iii back to 7.00 or NG in the 4.5 range.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung111910.jpg

[997TT]

Originally posted by djfob
Sold WTN a few days ago:banghead:

brutal dude.

I picked up GCE at $7.99...sold half yesterday at $9.02

debating picking up some WTN ... $11.50 is on the table. But deal is comprised of shares + cash so its possible Walter could go down ...hence why its trading at where its at.

also thinking of adding to my GCE position...

[max_boost]

My buddy who owns Thai Tai picked up GCE and WTN a few days ago after reading some article on it somewhere lol Talk about good timing as WTN is being bought out and GCE is up.

All my gains on HXD are now gone. Should have taken my 6% profit on the table but as usual, greed sets in lol

Hopefully next week is a downer :thumbsdow :rofl:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by max_boost
My buddy who owns Thai Tai picked up GCE and WTN a few days ago after reading some article on it somewhere lol Talk about good timing as WTN is being bought out and GCE is up.

All my gains on HXD are now gone. Should have taken my 6% profit on the table but as usual, greed sets in lol

Hopefully next week is a downer :thumbsdow :rofl:

just becareful for holding any one position for too long,

cycle points to market rise 1st week December, not exactly confident what will happen from now until then, we could suddenly nose dive, then sharply backup.

If I was to bet, it will be a volatile few weeks, call it shake out or what ever. Over all bias for most sectors has turned bullish, its the sharp sell offs that will trap/confuse the hack out of everyone.

[max_boost]

Was watching BNN and one of the guests mentioned 12,200 being the support level for TSX and if it corrected to that level, it would shoot forward again.

What do I know. I would be OK with that though lol

[KappaSigma]

Had a good conversation with a person who has been NG marketer for 30 years. Said some interesting stuff that he is seeing behind the scenes.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
what did he say??

x 2

[KappaSigma]

Some similar things that have already been said:

- drill rings are down for shale gas compared to before.
- Drilling requirements for lease requirements are pretty much done.

The thing I found the most interetsing was he said that NG is at its highest short position. And he said the biggest runs are when Shorts try to cover in commoidties. Funny thing is they said NG is at it lowest right now yet prices were better this year than last year.

Also, prices for NG land has increased big time over the last 12-18 months as consolidation occured.

I cant give away all my little tidbits :) So Ill stop there for now.

[Hi-Psi]

NAT gas is just too risky right now, why anyone would want to be in it is beyond me.

There are FAR BETTER prospects for making money in the market right now then taking the risks with NG.

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Some similar things that have already been said:

- drill rings are down for shale gas compared to before.
- Drilling requirements for lease requirements are pretty much done.

The thing I found the most interetsing was he said that NG is at its highest short position. And he said the biggest runs are when Shorts try to cover in commoidties. Funny thing is they said NG is at it lowest right now yet prices were better this year than last year.

Also, prices for NG land has increased big time over the last 12-18 months as consolidation occured.

I cant give away all my little tidbits :) So Ill stop there for now.

Sounds bullish on all counts.

:thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

Not going to post a new chart today since my charts on friday still stand.

NG is looking strong this week, with a strong close on friday it appears we are well in our sub .iii advance

UNG bullish as long as 5.70 does not get broken
NG is similarily bullish with its current support at 4.00

expecting UNG to hit 6.50-7.00 this week

[SilverRex]

another shot at NG chart, are we ready to make a move here similar to what happen in May?

I expect it can pull back to 4.00 as support then launch, but if NG is very bullish watch for immediate breakout to the top side.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/Natgas112210.jpg

[SilverRex]

update:
dollar index may be ready to head higher, looking at USD/CAD it looks as tough it is correcting, this would imply the dollar index may potentially have another move towards 80-81

if that is thecase, set your stops on metals gold at 1340 or below, silver at 25.60 or below.if dollar drives higher, it could set off another sharp round of sell off pushing gold towards 1300 and silver to 23.

for oil 80 was a good number but I also see 78 as the next support.

DOW remains bullish so long we remain above 10600, if it does come down near this area, it would be a good entry for the next leg up

[max_boost]

I'm still singing the same tune.

It's time to pull back.

It's time for China to raise rates.

The markets can rally and go as high as they want but just pull back first. LOL

[SilverRex]

NG continues to look good, this morning it appears it is correcting looking for 4.31 Jan contract to be our 1st minor support, follow by 4.25 and critical support at 4.04

silver looks like it is ready to head higher after another sub iv correction.
gold is struggling more as chart pattern is begging to look corrective on the lower level. still bullish imo as long as it stays above 1340

oil remains a good buy between 78-80 as my count suggest we should be ready soon to take off in a wave iiii of III, make or break is currently at 74, even then it may only imply we are to retest 67 or slightly lower which present another great buying area. But I'll stick to my current view until otherwise.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil112310.jpg
http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver112310.jpg

[KappaSigma]

More bullish news for NG. Conoco Phillips shuts in 28,000 BOE equivalent of gas. Should help the supply side of things.

[KappaSigma]

More NG bullish. Looks like analysis are now coming aboard after theyve probably been loading up.

Schachter Adopts A Bullish Stance On Natural Gas
By Paul Wells
A leading energy and financial expert says natural gas prices have bottomed and that the "commodity of choice right now is natural gas."
Josef Schachter, president of Schachter Asset Management, said that despite prevailing bearish sentiments from many experts about the short- and mid-term price outlook for natural gas, he's "bullish" and believes supply and demand fundamentals are beginning to correct and a modest recovery is in the cards.
And if the effects of a La Nina event take hold and winter in North America is colder than normal, a turnaround could start to occur sooner rather than later.
"We've now seen the bottom and we think it's quite possible that we'll see $5 (U.S. - New York Mercantile Exchange) to $6 during this winter on a normal basis. If a La Nina comes in and we have serious cold weather, serious draw downs on a weekly basis, it's possible you might see $7 and $8 spikes for NYMEX and we might see $5 and $6 spikes for AECO," Schachter said during a keynote speech to the Small Explorers and Producers Association of Canada's (SEPAC) fall investment forum Monday.
"I think we all know the negatives of the supply, the shales and the rest of it. But we can see a lot of new things going on at the margin that give us comfort zone of a new cycle starting," he added.
"There is now a new cycle we think is starting and the window for upside out there ... is now with us."
Aside from the potential effects of a cold winter, Schachter said there are currently a number of factors in play that he sees as being "very bullish" for natural gas. At the top of his list is the rising demand in the United States, where both electrical and industrial use is on the upswing which has led to an overall 8.6% increase in consumption this year (to August) over 2009 levels.
"Natural gas consumption on the industrial side is up by 6.3%. The industrial side is using it for chemical manufacturing and other things. It's not as big as electricity but it's rising," he said.
"Natural gas consumption on the electricity side is one of the big winners - it's up 12.8% year-over-year ... it's almost back to the 2007 levels.
Compared to 2009 consumption in the U.S., first quarter gas demand this year was 3.7 bcf a day higher while second quarter demand was 2.1 bcf a day more than last year. For the first two months of the third quarter, U.S. gas consumption was 5.1 bcf a day higher than in 2009, according to a recent investment report by Ticonderoga Securities.
On the supply side, Schachter said that new supply growth from shales - which had been growing at about 4.6% year-over-year to the end of August-- has begun to slow down over the past few months as producers meet drilling commitments for lease retention and as natural declines kick in.
"A lot of the shale gas drilling that had to be done because of drilling commitments has happened and we're starting to se the depletion coming from the conventional basin and we're now starting to see the rundown from the high production IPs that are coming from the shales ... which is now slowing down new production growth," he said.
Schachter added that a growing number of producers will likely shut-in some natural gas production in the near-term as their once lucrative hedge books expire and the forward strip offers little incentive to hedge. (ConocoPhillips just announced it is shutting-in gas production due to low prices. See story in today's DOB.)
"Guys had great hedges. Two years ago the price of natural gas was double digits ... and guys were able to get hedges north of $9 (U.S. per mcf). Those hedge books have run down," he noted.
"(If) you do hedge books now you're looking at $5 to $6, so if your break-even is $4 to $5, you're not making the big scale gains. A lot of guys have started shutting in high cost production as a way of running their business as profitably as possible."
While a cold weather event could help natural gas prices spike to the $6 to $8 per mcf range this winter, Schachter said that it may take longer before producers can count on sustainable prices at that level.
"We need some environmental legislation to get there and we need incentives to vehicle change-overs which again something that's a bit down the road."
Schachter's take on crude going forward is less optimistic and he's "bearish on the price of oil." He said high U.S. inventories, the continuing weakness of the U.S. economy, the financial crisis in Europe and the tightening of credit and commodity speculation in China are among the factors at play that could mute demand. While "at the same time you have excess OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) inventories ... and excess OPEC supplies."
"On the price of oil, our view right now is that you're probably in a range between the $60s (per bbl) and the low $80s. But if the crisis in Europe does escalate and we start seeing major problems there and there is tightening of credit again like we did see in 2008 ... then there's a chance we might see it go down below $50," he said.
"But I'd put a one-in-three chance on that happening. But will we bust and go into potentially the $70s over the next six months? I think that's probably very likely based on the fundamentals that we see right now."

[SilverRex]

interesting how these articles comes in after the fact, NG bottomed last month. technical always leads, news will support movement not create a direction.

[broken_legs]

I'd say as long as this arctic air keeps flowing NG supplies will be drawing down nicely. How perfect to have this super cold weather at the same time as the T/A and bullish headlines.

[ryeguy252]

What do you guys think of Avion Gold Corp? Avr.V?

[fluid]

***edit: never mind looked back and found it

[SilverRex]

NG and oil are moving nicely :)

expecting oil to remain bullish unless 81.9 fails to hold

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

lets look at the low level here, excuse the 15 day congestion, but the recent break above 6.1 only confirms we are in an uptrend.

low at 5.35 UNG remains in tact. I dont expect this to be broken. sub level count suggest we had a wave iii extension and so my upper bullish tone would be to see price retest 6.1 via consolidation then another breakout.

a realistic approch yet still bullsih would force price back down to previous wave i high at 5.84 however with a rishing neckline soon intersecting 6.1, that could be a double support, therefore the longer we hold above 6.1, the more bullish it becomes.

worse case scenario without killing the uptrend could still strech down to 5.50, this would simply our current move from 5.35 to 6.1+ waves are completed with a steep correction.

however we are almost into december, seasonal strength in NG have been delayed so my expecation is a more bullish tone support price to continue to remain above 5.84

negative factor that concerns me is the little gap left unfilled just above 5.50 which could produce the worse case scenario.

I'll continue to monitor this, my nearside target havent change still expecting UNG to fill the 6.50 gap and test 7.00 in the not so distant future.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ung111410.jpg

[SilverRex]

NG ready to Explode (http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10930710/1/natural-gas-ready-to-explode.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA)

[SilverRex]

Lets look at the dollar index, so my last post suggested that dollar is on its way back towards 80-81, and so far it has reached the min target for this final up tick, the double top 'may' be very well hold and force the dollar right back down to retest a rising neckline. With all other sectors appears ready to make another move higher in december, it is very possible the dollar is ready to selloff once again. Breaking the rising neckline would give the dollar further down side momentum which may be the catalyst in propelling the market even higher.

The only alt count I have is if the latest wave (b) and wave (c) is simply part of a 3 wave zig zag, that would mean the dollar still has a chance to make one more move higher than 80. But we will bring this topic back up if and when the dollar heads back down to 79.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar112510.jpg

[SilverRex]

another post on NG since its moving quite well and remains according to plan. the asumption that NG has bottomed back in Oct continues to hold true. We are currently in the early stage of a big move.

recap, after NG giving us our first sub wave .i at 4.21, a 2 week correctional wave .ii was completed at 3.79. now we are in an sub .iii or potentially an extended sub wave .iii advance with breakout happening at any time.

our initial target of 4.5 has been achieved, next target post breakout should reach 5.00 without much problem. The bullish idea is to see price remain above 4.21 then explode upward in a typical wave III fashion, its often we see this wave iii gap up that combines with a breakout. Text book? sure bet.

You can also spot the U shape bottom, another trend reversal trait that many technical expert love to see, this U-shape bottom, RH&S what ever you want to call it all points to NG testing 5.00 in the not so distant future. personally we will see some volatility again once price hits 5.00, as that may be a heavy take profit resistance zone. I tend to agree with cyclist that NG moves in a parabolic state and typical last a few months, my own target yields NG to test the 7-8 dollar area thru out this winter. If that is the case, there will be plenty of profit to be made.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/ng112510.jpg

[yoda124]

UUU Uranium One on fire!!!:clap:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by yoda124
UUU Uranium One on fire!!!:clap:

The only good thing in my portfolio these days. :rofl:

+91%! hahaha

http://members.shaw.ca/samtang310/UUU.JPG

[guessboi]

^ lol. hey I use RBC too.

[troyl]

36% cash in that one portfolio max_boost? You must be really bearish on the markets. Put that cash to work! _

[mr2mike]

So have the banks got all the oil companies to renew their hedges at low prices yet? I really think this is the game... get them in at a low hedge price, then let the gas price take off so they can start profiting.

I also like the support at $6.80 that HNU has had these past two days.

[max_boost]

Markets holding steady.

One day up. One day down.

What does it want to do?!:rofl:

[SilverRex]

ok hope everyone had a good break and picked some good deals last week.

Skipping NG today since I dont think there has been much change in my view since my last post.

Looking at the dollar this morning, my last suggestion that we may have a double top in place did not pan out. it would have been a nice confirmation to see it dip below 79.40, however this will now act as our confirmation to the down side.

the original target of 80-81 is still in motion, as you can see here, there is a upper trend channel targeting the 81.3 area, we quite possibly a good area to end the dollar's latest advance. shorting around 81 may be a good play here for less risk, id wait until dollar takes out 79.40, when that happens I'll short on rallies.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar112910.jpg

As requested, silver imo is correcting, after a nice run from 25-28, its on the verge of another breakout move. confirmation require price to crack about 27.3 for the next upleg. However always keep in mind that downside possibility do exist. it will be a sharp and nice sell off if price is unable to hold above the low 26s. Time will tell if we shall see silver at 23-24.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver112910.jpg

finally I wanted to look at oil on a higher level, I still believe our 71-88 run is our first major 5 wave cycle, the drop to 80 was expected, and so the bullish stanze if oil can remain above 82 should give us a strong wave III advance in the coming weeks. however my alt count which still holds a bullish tone gives us a drop to 75-78 area which would be ideal since it can retest the previous breakout neckline, hit out 78% fibo retracement as a wave II correction, then launch aggressively. This path wont materialize unless I see price take out 82 or expecially 80.50 abouts

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil112910.jpg

[997TT]

Sold the rest of my gce last week. Looking for a re-entry but would like to see it a bit lower.

Took an initial position in Cmk-t at $2.84.

[KappaSigma]

Looking for a pullback in Bank of Ireland.

[997TT]

Added GCE at 9.33.

Looking to enter CLM soon ... Am trigger happy this morning. Haha

[s_havinga]

Big drop in NG today, good reentry point?

[kaput]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by s_havinga
Big drop in NG today, good reentry point?

I think so,

will only be concern if UNg dip below 5.53 or NG under 3.94, otherwise my bet is a steep correction follow by an aggressive surge.

[in*10*se]

edit:

[997TT]

nice open.... GCE is money

[max_boost]

Markets are strong. More big banks reporting this week.

We gonna see 14,000 here or what. :nut: :dunno: :eek:

I got stopped out of HXD at 9.70. Stupid me for wanting to fight market forces. :rofl: Dunno what to do, at least UUU is holding up the gains in the portfolio.

Is this the year the Uranium companies make a strong comeback? Thinking of buying some of these:

PNP, LAM, MGA etc.