Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

most investor do not have the patience to wait for a grand buying opportunity, and yet have the patience to hold a loss and exit at the worst time.

That is why buffet's buy when everyone is fearful and sell when everyone is greedy often makes you more money in the long term.

applying this reverse mentality could earn you the only skills needed to survive in such harsh trading environment.

[SilverRex]

NG continues to tackle 4.21 and it appears today may be the day it can finally close above this which means technical trader will view the latest selloff as a correction. Next move up is around the corner.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by SilverRex
most investor do not have the patience to wait for a grand buying opportunity, and yet have the patience to hold a loss and exit at the worst time.

That is why buffet's buy when everyone is fearful and sell when everyone is greedy often makes you more money in the long term.

applying this reverse mentality could earn you the only skills needed to survive in such harsh trading environment.

This is terrible advice when taken out of context because what will come of this is people attempt to catch the falling proverbial knife and fail miserably.

Example: Crude is at $150. Collapse occurs, everyone running for the exits. How many people do you think got the Warren-Buffet style mentality going and said "alright boys.. time to load up, everyone is getting scared outta this bitch" only to get wiped out buying at 120? 100? 80? 60?

This principal of buying on fear and selling on greed will ONLY make you money if you have sound money management principles and are accumulating positions with proper risk aversion strategies. And, quite frankly, not a lot of people have the time or energy to devote to really knowing when to accumulate, how much to accumulate, and which type of insurance to use on their positions.

For the saavy investor, yeah this is great advice, but not for the average beyonder who spends majority of their 5 day work week NOT doing investment research.

[TorqueDog]

I'm making lots of small plays right now. I don't need to make $500 on a trade. If I make $100 on a trade, I'm still ahead of a savings account and ten +$100 trades are just as good as two +$500 trades, but much easier to come by.

Opened and closed a long position in INVE (NASDAQ) within 15 minutes (back on the 12th) and made $100. About to do the same with CMK (TSX).

[dimi]

Woohooo silver is blasting again! SLW doesn't seem to be catching up though.

[bodaciousbob]

Looong time lurker... love watching your guys picks.. keeps me on the edge of my seat.. Here are a couple picks i've been watching recently...

CTS.vn
GNZ.vn
LKAI
PTU

Anyone else been keeping an eye on them?

I wish I had money to invest in 2008 when i told all my friends to buy LLL @ $4 :P

Oh well, no time like the present!

[djayz]

Originally posted by bodaciousbob
Looong time lurker... love watching your guys picks.. keeps me on the edge of my seat.. Here are a couple picks i've been watching recently...

CTS.vn
GNZ.vn
LKAI
PTU

Anyone else been keeping an eye on them?

I wish I had money to invest in 2008 when i told all my friends to buy LLL @ $4 :P

Oh well, no time like the present!

PTU on my watchlist since 2007-8. Made a load of money and lost a lot too but in the end I still hold a position which will one day be worth something. Sound company just needs the publicity and a regular stream of news and itll be a $1+ again.

Who's selling in May and going away?

[SilverRex]

looks like gold/silver has resume its original up trend, looking for silver to hit 45 soon then another correction, possibly we could see 50 before summer.

NG has officially close above 4.21 indicating recent action is but a correction, it is ready to make another dash north

[93mr2gt]

Originally posted by bodaciousbob
Looong time lurker... love watching your guys picks.. keeps me on the edge of my seat.. Here are a couple picks i've been watching recently...

CTS.vn
GNZ.vn
LKAI
PTU

Anyone else been keeping an eye on them?

I wish I had money to invest in 2008 when i told all my friends to buy LLL @ $4 :P

Oh well, no time like the present!

i've been watching GNZ for the past 3 yrs. Saw it went up to .62 in 1 day, then dropped back down to .04 ...its been sitting at around .05 for a while now....

i've been watching RVX.to for a while now too

[Feruk]

Anyone following Vero Energy (VRO)? I've played them twice before. Made 40%+ first time, and made 13% second time (made a huge mistake and sold on trend; next day news came out that would've made me another 15-20%).

They seem to be starting an uptrend, almost back to 1:1 debt/CF, trading at 38,600/flowing boe (debt adjusted) and are concentrating drilling on oil now (27% oil/NGL). Trading at 5X earnings.

I'm not a fan of NG, but I'm thinking about dipping back in... IMO this is a $9.50 stock trading at $6.15... Only problem is investors never seemed to like this company much. Thoughts?

[bitteeinbit]

Man what the fuck is going on. Only three of my 8 positions are up. For some reason, IFP.A is down 6%. I'm way down on CUM and unsure about what to do. I've considered shorting copper, but that doesn't sound a like a good idea either. At least MEQ and HCG are up. I bought down GPR yesterday but I'm scared it's in a downtrend for the short term. Maybe I should have bought down more so my position fell under 4$...
http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/1220/screenshot1x.png

I'm going to slowly get out of all my positions when I get the chance and rethink it all. I've lost a lot of cash this week and it's making me depressed. The rate it's going now I'd be better off keeping funds in a 2% savings account or some mutual fund. I probably would have made more money by throwing darts at a chart of stock tickers and hoping for the best. I'm definitely thinking stocks are way too volatile for my liking. It seems there must be better, safer investments out there. I might change my mind is no time, but I'll get out of my positions as soon as possible and start paper trading for a bit, fuck this economy. Back to basics (knowing me I'll make like a 60% return when paper trading for a month, switch to the real deal and lose 15%, pfffff). At least if I felt I was learning something it would be worth my money and time but sometimes it just seems to make absolutely no sense and there's no logic in stock fluctuations.

VRO looks in a downtrend to be honest, but it's quite volatile so you might make some cash just by riding the waves if you're good at that. Then again, I've been wrong all the time this week so it'll probably break out and shoot up 200% :nut: :rofl:
http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/8237/screenshotnz.png

[Feruk]

I agree on the VRO 12 month downtrend. I don't think I'd enter till it breaks $6.50.

[skandalouz_08]

Anyone in Epo.v or watching it? Any thoughts on short-term performance in potash?

[bitteeinbit]

Just thought I would share this with you guys:
I contacted the law firm in charge of the class-action lawsuit vs CLQ. It might take years to know the outcome of the litigation but at least I'm in on it. I'm tempted to dump my shares and just move on as it makes little difference at the moment. I'll probably wait to see the new findings and if they are negative I'll let them go. If they're OK I might hold on.


1-Any good low yield ETF's or stocks out there? Like bank stocks or retirement funds? My risk aversion would skyrocket if I lost so much money on CLQ so I would want something yielding 3%+. Or is the stock market not a good idea for low-risk at the moment? Given that we've had 2 straight years of great growth I'm thinking the next few months might be a little bumpy.

2-Anyone ever write off stock losses in tax returns? A quick search told me that in Canada, we can only take losses vs our gains. Kinda sucks if I take a big dip because of CLQ. Anyone ever done this before? I was hoping it could be a sort of write off that you can keep for a few years and declare when you make more money like tuition fees.

[skandalouz_08]

You can write off capital losses vs capital gains carried forward for 7 years I think. The number of years might be wrong but you can carry it forward for sure. Just declare the loss on you 2011 return and the govt will then have a record of it.

Sad part is if it is in your rsp or tfsa it isn't possible to deduct it as a capital loss and you become S.O.L.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[93mr2gt]

Originally posted by e36bmw///


They are carried forward indefinitely
3 years back



And as for RRSP and TFSA,
YES, you cant deduct capital losses, but you also dont have capital gains to worry about. I'd choose that any day

edit** also if you have still have a loss after 20 years, you can claim it against your employment income IIRC

You are right. Also want to add to that, your capital losses will be calculated differently depending on the year it was carried forward from.

[Hi-Psi]

Yet another slaughter today in the markets...

[bimmere92]

INT is tearing it up!

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Man what the fuck is going on. I'm way down on CUM and unsure about what to do.


:confused:

[bitteeinbit]

Thanks for the input.
Since it doesn't deduct from any income gains, it would simply deduct any interest gains I make on investments? So since I incurred them now (2011), I could carry them forward indefinitely to deduct any interest gains I make on investments in the future? Does this apply only to capital gains from securities or also just for simple interest accumulated in the bank?

How come are the capital losses calculated differently? I guess people who lost in 2008 or 2001 will be given more leniency or something?

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nm

[bitteeinbit]

Haha, I swear, that was intentional!

So this only applies to gains such as selling a house for a profit? Damn, sounds like I'm never going to see this money ever again... /Endlife

[997TT]

grabbed some GCE at open today.... stock has been beaten up bad.

see if i can get a 5-7% bounce over the next little bit

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by bimmere92
INT is tearing it up!

up 145% from friday :thumbsup:

[Crymson]

Originally posted by Proyecto2000


up 145% from friday :thumbsup:

Which copmany is this?

[cloud7]

holy crap PYN up a lot today. I guess I should have set the sell price higher...

[D'z Nutz]

Originally posted by bimmere92
INT is tearing it up!

Fucking christ, check out today's high of day. I was looking at it last week at just over a buck but decided not to jump in cause I thought it did it's run.

[korym]

Originally posted by Crymson


Which copmany is this?


It is Intertainment Media Inc.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=CVE%3AINT

Wondering if it is going to continue breaking out...

[max_boost]

Originally posted by D'z Nutz


Fucking christ, check out today's high of day. I was looking at it last week at just over a buck but decided not to jump in cause I thought it did it's run.

HAHA

Would have been awesome. 52 week low $0.08!!! :eek:

Buy low, sell high and get that Ferrari in cash. :bigpimp:

[korym]

Thinking about dumping a grand into INT, see where that takes me... chasing the highs...

[Proyecto2000]

Originally posted by D'z Nutz


Fucking christ, check out today's high of day. I was looking at it last week at just over a buck but decided not to jump in cause I thought it did it's run.

same here, I was sitting at my desk friday thinking about it as my friend kept telling me to buy buy buy.


Long story short I did not buy and my friend wont leave me alone. Keeps calling me to brag about his profit :rofl:

[Crymson]

Think google or someone else might by trying to buy them for that translator gizmo?

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by cloud7
holy crap PYN up a lot today. I guess I should have set the sell price higher...

Hopefully this is the signal needed to take it into new highs. I'm almost at breakeven(I unfortunately bought it in the middle of it's downswing and not at the bottom).

A lot of analysts projecting 0.50-1.00 for the summer due to the playbook being released. :-)

Come on PYN! haha

[D'z Nutz]

Originally posted by max_boost
Buy low, sell high and get that Ferrari in cash. :bigpimp:

Bwahaha I need to sign up for the max_boost program so I can start making baller money


Originally posted by korym
Thinking about dumping a grand into INT, see where that takes me... chasing the highs...

With the sudden rush up, I'm tempted to short it to make a quick buck.



Originally posted by Hi-Psi
A lot of analysts projecting 0.50-1.00 for the summer due to the playbook being released. :-)

Come on PYN! haha


Originally posted by Hi-Psi
PYN should be almost ready for it's next big push up, it's down almost 50% since it's last high only a month or so back, a lot of analysts have suggested between 0.30-0.50 into the summer. God I hope so haha


Haha Make up your mind! Which one is it?

I got in at 0.15 last week. I put in a order when the PPS was like 0.20 and the order sat for over a month before it filled. I didn't get rock bottom prices, but I'm not complaining right now either.

[cloud7]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi


Hopefully this is the signal needed to take it into new highs. I'm almost at breakeven(I unfortunately bought it in the middle of it's downswing and not at the bottom).

A lot of analysts projecting 0.50-1.00 for the summer due to the playbook being released. :-)

Come on PYN! haha

I look to get back into it when it drops back a little.

[Hi-Psi]

Originally posted by D'z Nutz
Haha Make up your mind! Which one is it?

I got in at 0.15 last week. I put in a order when the PPS was like 0.20 and the order sat for over a month before it filled. I didn't get rock bottom prices, but I'm not complaining right now either.

With the countless reports I've read over the last month and a half and analysts projections along with opinions of those holding and trading the stock it looks like it's poised for between 0.40-1.00 going into the summer.

They're calling for a gap up in the morning and things are looking even better as Desjardin Securities picked up 400,000 shares in the last few minutes of trading.

Could be a very good week for Poynt with people just now getting to see how damn good this app looks on the playbook I have a feeling it's going to see some very good numbers going into the spring/summer.

[D'z Nutz]

Man if it hits anything like that, I'll get a major erection.

It'll make up for me missing out on ML.TO last summer. I bought in at $1.65. I thought it made it's run at $1.85 so I sold my shares.

Well, the chart can tell a better story :cry:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ML.TO+Interactive#symbol=ml.to;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

[dimi]

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

LoL @ Goldman Sachs.

[997TT]

so much for INT .... intriguing story though. i'm sure it will dead cat bounce somewhere...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[korym]

INT dropping like a brick, shorting was a good call.

PYN, still hesitant... another big drop today makes an entry point available though...

When is GOOG going to bottom out and upswing again?

[TorqueDog]

Made $268 on Cline Mining this morning (CMK).

Yeah, it's a small gain, but I'm happy with lots of small increases. If I can hit a big one, I'll definitely take it though.

I'm into GCE right now since they got their asses beat down on the TSX last week. Another $150-$250 and I'll cash out and move into another position.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
so much for INT .... intriguing story though. i'm sure it will dead cat bounce somewhere...

I believe it has just completed a 5 waves advance peaked at 3.35 to produce a major wave III, price should typically retrace to the prior range of wave III/IV which is between 0.35-0.97 and should continue to do so forming a triangular wave for this major wave IV correction, then there should be another breakout for one more new high

[e36bmw///]

nm

[korym]

STILL GOING UP UP UP

[bitteeinbit]

Darn, the downtrend I predicted in GPR is still going.

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/1220/screenshot1x.png

Given that the current trend seems established and that it broke through the 50ma, I figure it'll go down to at least 3.4 before going back up (if it does). Not sure how long that will take though.

http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/8583/screenshotycf.png

[997TT]

my order of ADI just filled at $1.56

see where this puppy goes but i'm hoping to exit around $1.65-$1.70

[Magic-8-Ball]

Natural Gas is on the move!!...just as you predicted SilverRex. Hopefully this continues to the ~4.7X range as you were initially thinking it would.

[skandalouz_08]

Bitee, how low do you see gpr going?

[Crymson]

What do you guys think of these results from BFD?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?date=20110420&archive=ccnm&slug=201104200691326001

[leftwing]

..

[SilverRex]

silver 2x ETF play HZU.to has gone up 1000% since 22 months ago.

talk about a trend

[ZenOps]

Yeow. Look at silver 10-year.

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag3650nyb.gif

I used to enjoy watching the daily charts, but its so high now - I actually find myself getting a bit queasy at how fast its rising.

Up 155% on year. 11x in 8 years, and it doesn't even come back to a dollar that might be worthless.

[dimi]

Originally posted by leftwing
If you guys don't me asking: what strategies do you guys use to pick stocks?

Just watch what the FED does. This market has been dominated by their intervention as of late. If they announce QE3 in June market goes up due to all the printing. If they stop printing then it'll crash. In the long run this whole circus is going to an come to end when people come to the realization that an economy cannot be propped up freshly printed money.

Now what I think they'll do is stop printing, market goes down very quickly and then they say "See we were right!". Annnd then they start printing again.... Raising int rates at this point is unthinkable. Do that and the interest charge on their debt will hit the budget exponentially harder.

Most profitable sector recently has been silver, as shown by the chart above. A lot of people have been buying silver because it is "inflation protection" in a sense and it is inexpensive relative to gold. Some people would recommend silver mining stocks but they do not correlate perfectly with silver spot rate (less gains). Or the ETF suggested above. Be wary though, it has been rising at a rate of $1/day lately, a correction is inevitable sooner or later.

IMO

[max_boost]

:werd: dimi!

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08
Bitee, how low do you see gpr going?
Not sure to be honest, but I see one of two things.

1-The only day it broke the 50ma was yesterday. So if it rallies a bit next week maybe it won't go down much further (or if it goes down a bit past it and moves back up). I hope this happens as I have a position in it.

2-If it does break past the 50ma further (it's currently sitting somewhat on the line) it's probably going to move down to 3.40 or so to fill that late February gap.

Either way I think it's going to move back up after because it's currently oversold if you look at the stochastics. It also dropped big on Monday because of the S&P news. Some stocks seem to behave badly to stuff like that while others rebound quickly. But don't trade based on my pseudo-analysis because I've been having a bout of bad picks as of late. I'm just hoping it pierces that upper resistance sooner rather than later...

[ZenOps]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR1CPvJnRfM

Interesting development if true, the US Monex is out of physical Silver Eagles. The US still seems to be able to get Maple leaves and Philharmonics though.

On the off chance that anyone here has access to the US Monex and can confirm on monday it would be appreciated.

If the US is out of Eagles (of any date in the last many decades) then they must be out of 1000 ounce comex bars?

[djayz]

Originally posted by ZenOps
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR1CPvJnRfM

Interesting development if true, the US Monex is out of physical Silver Eagles. The US still seems to be able to get Maple leaves and Philharmonics though.

On the off chance that anyone here has access to the US Monex and can confirm on monday it would be appreciated.

If the US is out of Eagles (of any date in the last many decades) then they must be out of 1000 ounce comex bars?

You maybe onto something. Silver is spiking almost $2, currently sitting at a $1 above Sunday close!

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

congrad to all who bought silver as the call to 50 is about to get realized. I suspect silver will run into a sell in may and go away or should I say a correction in the summer times silver 'should' seek a interm top around 50-52 area, look for a steeper correction then what we've seen in the past retesting the 40 area, anything lower than that would obviously be a great buy towards year end.

the 2011 winter is expected to be a parabolic move beyond 50+

[997TT]

Originally posted by SilverRex
congrad to all who bought silver as the call to 50 is about to get realized. I suspect silver will run into a sell in may and go away or should I say a correction in the summer times silver 'should' seek a interm top around 50-52 area, look for a steeper correction then what we've seen in the past retesting the 40 area, anything lower than that would obviously be a great buy towards year end.

the 2011 winter is expected to be a parabolic move beyond 50+

i bought HZU in the 17's and sold in the 18's..... i believe i am up for the worse trader of the year award. lol

[bitteeinbit]

Why isn't GPR following suit with silver?

[997TT]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Why isn't GPR following suit with silver?

none of the silver stocks are following suit with silver prices....some have done better than others though (SBB, SLW etc)

i think mgmt did a poor job with the timing of their offering at $4.20.

that being said i think the stock is oversold. GPR at 3.54 x 3.55 is a good price imo.

[ZenOps]

Check out the volatility today. Roller coaster.

It looks like the Nymex traders are going to try and force down. Which means if you intend to buy - you may have one more chance to jump on this train. Last chance for physical!

[dimi]

Well I guess its time to buy some more! Holy shit, what a drop!

[bitteeinbit]

Yeah seriously. Is it just be or do these bought deals make stocks plummet? I mean, a small drop is normal to simply adjust to whatever price was given and maybe for share dilution but I always time badly. I bought GPR two days before the said buy in, the day before the CLQ one and now even IFP.A is way down despite it being a solid company and stock price being low imo. I think these bought deals often stunt stock price growth and scares investors off for some reason. I now try to avoid stocks once big players start overtly investing in them. I've bought down once already and I'm reluctant to do it again, so I keep hoping today turns into a hammer.*pray*

The downtrend is clear, but like you say, the stock is oversold (stoch) and even RSI show it as somewhat oversold. I just don't want to wait too long or buy down too often for what turns out to be a loser.

[ZenOps]

Haha, I told my friend about this forum.

And he is like "WTF are they talking about oil?" ROFL. I have to explain that its silver.

Its still totally under the radar for even veteran investors.

Edit: Peak in Hong Kong, dip and recover on Nymex already. Holy crap. Catching a daily high or bottom is going to be hard.

I wonder if the Nymex will try dips for a few days or maybe a couple weeks, or if this was a one time attempt? The dips appear to strongest before it hits 9AM in Calgary - which means lining up to buy silver at Albern? Hell, I'm a conspiracy theorist and a realist - but is it too early to start lining up to buy physical Silver?

It will be easier to play the paper Silver from now on, but SLV or PSLV that is the question?

[bitteeinbit]

What are people's thoughts on GPR? What the hell happened today, was it manipulation? I'm not a conspiracy theorist but it sure as hell looked like it. It dropped below what I expected would act as resistance (3.45$ or so) and all in one day vs 2-3 weeks which is how long i thought it would take to get there. The late feb gap has been filled but now I'm not sure if buying down is a good idea given such a sudden drop. Opinions/ideas/estimates?


but is it too early to start lining up to buy physical Silver?

You should have loaded up on bars of silver in 2009! :D

[ZenOps]

I don't want to line up at Albern only to get denied:

http://www.gatewestcoin.com/markets.html

Gold in any quantity is available for immediate pickup (meaning they have onsite, or available for daily delivery)

Silver 5000+ maple leaves orders are Delayed (meaning rejected) They don't have a single maple leaf in stock either (2+ week wait, assuming delivery is not defaulted)

A Comex default on delivery would send shockwaves through the system. While the US has run out of Eagles, we here in Canada still have some Maples left, but they must be delivered either directly from the mint or from existing supply.

Anyone know the exact terms for Albern? I'm assuming paper fiat money refund if they are unable to deliver.

[Red@8]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
What are people's thoughts on GPR? What the hell happened today, was it manipulation? I'm not a conspiracy theorist but it sure as hell looked like it. It dropped below what I expected would act as resistance (3.45$ or so) and all in one day vs 2-3 weeks which is how long i thought it would take to get there. The late feb gap has been filled but now I'm not sure if buying down is a good idea given such a sudden drop. Opinions/ideas/estimates?


You should have loaded up on bars of silver in 2009! :D

I picked up a small amount of GPR today in the low $3.4X. I'm looking for a small profit off a potential bounce. I've got a tight stop though.

[SilverRex]

silver corrected 10+% which is healthy how ever if it cannot crack below 43.50, then silver is back into a bullish trance and could hit up to 60 dollars.

what ever top we will seek, i am still expecting a steep correction of 20+% over the summer, then a very powerful run this coming winter that will take us into ATH

[SilverRex]

silver is a good gamble with stop below morning low at 44.50, (latest drop looks corrective)

if silver indeed re-claims bullish momentum we could be looking towards another high again possibly hitting 60 dollars in the short term before the steep correction takes shape over the summer holidays.

[dimi]

Originally posted by ZenOps
A Comex default on delivery would send shockwaves through the system. While the US has run out of Eagles, we here in Canada still have some Maples left, but they must be delivered either directly from the mint or from existing supply.

Anyone know the exact terms for Albern? I'm assuming paper fiat money refund if they are unable to deliver.

COMEX will never default. There are too many vested interests there to let that happen. They'll change their contracts stating that cash settlement is up to COMEX or something.

Albern: You give them a call, ask what they have in stock and they will hold it for you till days end. They update their prices every 15 mins so you will be paying approximately spot x exchange x 1.05.

Great time to buy silver. When APMEX is inquiring to buy your eagles, you know whats up. And anyone that falls for spot +$3 is an absolute retard when they sell for almost $60 on ebay.

[korym]

Anyone know why TSE:HZU (http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE%3AHZU) does not have up to date information on Google Finance?

[bitteeinbit]

Added to my NPR.UN position. Over the past month or so I badly timed my additions (not paying attention to the spread) so I've only got the slightest of gains now but it looks like it's ready to move back up (I also added for the dividend which I'm guessing will come this Friday). I'm also watching MEQ closely as it's very close to the previous high. I won't add more just yet, just monitoring for now. As for GPR, I guess time will tell. It gaped down which I gives me some hope. So much for me wanting to get rid of all my positions as quickly as possible...:dunno:

[SilverRex]

folks, NG is ready for a wave III pop, the reverse H&S is pointing to a breakout move towards 6.3+

as long as 3.74 holds, next major move will be sharp, failure to hold 3.74 would kill latest bullish count and force a retest in the low 3s

a reason why mining stocks are about to collapse is TA suggesting a negative bias, a diagonal rise that could easily break and retest/unwind back to 2009 lows.

I also believe in HUI producing a H&S with the head recently formed at 609. Unless it can break above 700, the next major move for mining stocks are down which fits in nicely to the coming mid june cylc top in the market place. Increase volatility and flash crashes will be the normal going forward.

Long term, gold is very much alive in a wave III advance that could top out some where between 1500-1800 area, the initial run in the 70s wave a major wave I, gold is currently seek a major wave III top, once completed some where in 2012, gold would then enter a multi year correction similar to the 80s-90s that will eventually setup for a blow off top in epic proportions 5000+

[ZenOps]

Looks like the correction is losing steam.

Dang, I wanted it to go to $43.50 or so before Bernanke makes his speech tomorrow.

I wonder how the markets will react.

[dimi]

Up and away we go. Can this market get any more predictable!

I wish I had some more free capital :banghead:

[bitteeinbit]

http://i48.tinypic.com/adp6ci.jpg

Fucking christ, I was away from home all day today and now that I'm back, I see GPR has moved up steadily 15%+ (now 16.83 as I wrote this)... I would have moved in early but now I feel it's too late. There might be a double-cat bounce in store tomorrow before it goes back up? Christ, I guess the big shorters all covered their positions and some people got in on an amazing bargain. I should have put a buy in option. Buying down now is still probably good for the long-run but sometimes they just plummet on the next day. Still good bargain but for buying down not sure it's the best time. I have 35 minutes to make a decisions, hmmmmm...

[dimi]

Ummmm the FED just held a press conference saying "signs of inflation are appearing" when they have been appearing for years because of their policies... that's why.

Its not about traders, or "evil speculators" or short sellers or any of us small pawns. When you have a central bank with absolutely no oversight, no accountability, that has a monopoly on the devaluation of your purchasing power, we don't make a difference. That's my take on it anyway.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[dimi]

$3+ spot rate in the matter of hours. Should have bought much more yesterday :whocares:

[SilverRex]

looks like the 44.5 on silver bottom was a good call, if anyone got in, my recommendation is to try and hold for a potential final short term rise in may for 52-60 silver.

then I would exit and wait for the weak summer big correction and play the final rise this coming winter.

move your stop to zero, if silver comes back down for a new low, I suspect the big correction may have began, this last pop will be for a divergence setup for a medium term drop.

NG continues to look ready and just waiting for a trigger to pop to 6.00+

[BrknFngrs]

How is everyone taking advantage of increasing NG? Investing in gas heavy producers?

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by BrknFngrs
How is everyone taking advantage of increasing NG? Investing in gas heavy producers?

Pretty much. Basically averaged down on PMT so that my cost is low 4.00s.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BrknFngrs
How is everyone taking advantage of increasing NG? Investing in gas heavy producers?

I would play NG via short term etc or contract, not a good idea for stocks beginning mid june. it could get ugly fast when QE2 ends.

[Magic-8-Ball]

For me I bought HNU back when NG was at 3.1X or so. It has worked out pretty good so far and am up just about 16% since then. Currently I am holding out for 3.7x range to see if it holds there (in line with what SR posted the other day).

NG up ~0.13 cents today and it looks like it is well on its way! currently sitting @ ~4.55


Originally posted by BrknFngrs
How is everyone taking advantage of increasing NG? Investing in gas heavy producers?

[themack89]

Originally posted by SilverRex


I would play NG via short term etc or contract, not a good idea for stocks beginning mid june. it could get ugly fast when QE2 ends.

Finally realized UNG is failure?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by themack89


Finally realized UNG is failure?

no since I stop posting charts these days I will only look at NG's price

NG has always been a great play for short term rise, but once it gets into range trading, stocks like HNU and UNG will erode price away.

also from all my previous NG post, I have always suggested a break or make support that if broken lows will be tested. Most people fail not by playing UNG, they fail by holding a loss month after month without an exit strategy.

[997TT]

There goes Rim ... hope nobody is stuck holding it waiting for better days

[bitteeinbit]

I'm a hair cose to shorting it right now. Been thinking about it since I heard that it went down afterhours yesterday. It's a crazy fight right now. I think there's money to be made shorting it within a few days but it's been beaten so bad lately I'm scared it might act like GPR with a big comeback even though it's a relatively slow stock. It's a shame though. A few weeks back management commented on how frustrating it was to always have to defend your accomplishments and never get rewarded. How it was a tiring constant battle and i often feel the same way for a variety of companies.

[s_havinga]

Originally posted by themack89


Finally realized UNG is failure?

Hmm, I'm up 30% in HNU since April 7th. I don't consider that failure.

Now the question is when to get out...

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Magic-8-Ball]

Yeah, you and I are in the same boat...you got in a few days before me though, good job! I am up ~25% myself since April 11th and am looking for an exit point too.

I am thinking I will sell today and not hold it over the weekend. I am thinking there will be a bit more upside, but I want to see how the 3.7X range plays out before I consider entering into it again...



Originally posted by s_havinga


Hmm, I'm up 30% in HNU since April 7th. I don't consider that failure.

Now the question is when to get out...

[s_havinga]

Well got busy at work, looks like I will have to see what the weekend brings... I gotta admit, this is the first time I have actually got a trend right. Was in HND about for a week as NG dropped sold at a 7% gain and bought HNU the next minute as it switched. Feels good to finally be making some money

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
30% in less than a month.
get out.
thats a poor exit strategy,

if anything I would sell half and let the other half ride.

or use 10/20 EMA as support to see if this breakout (I Believe it is the one everyone's been waiting for, since Last sept) for a straight shot to 6+

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by s_havinga
Well got busy at work, looks like I will have to see what the weekend brings... I gotta admit, this is the first time I have actually got a trend right. Was in HND about for a week as NG dropped sold at a 7% gain and bought HNU the next minute as it switched. Feels good to finally be making some money
I wish I also get that feeling one day ;-). Seriously, I've yet to make a 30%+ gain on a single stock so I'm just aiming for that, even if it's a tiny position. Do any of you actually "sell in may and walk away"? What are some positions which do seasonally better come summertime?

I ended up not shorting RIM but it sounds like it would be worth it would have been a good move (financially) to do short-term. I wanted to sell MEQ but didn't because of the spread. I'm guessing it might still have some steam. NPR is also doing well as predicted.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by s_havinga


Hmm, I'm up 30% in HNU since April 7th. I don't consider that failure.

Now the question is when to get out...

You totally missed the point here... These ETF's have serious problems with engineered devaluation through roll over costs. Considering any of these for a long term hold is not the greatest of ideas.

Does that mean you can't make money trading it? No. Obviously you made a nice gain trading it, so congratulations. It is FAR from investment grade though, so don't even think about it.

And I get the feeling not many of you guys are doing risk adjusted returns. Whatever is earning you 25% to 30% in a MONTH (360%/year) you probably wouldn't risk a significant chunk of your portfolio holding, so you should really reconsider it as a 3% gain on a $10,000 portfolio rather than a 30% gain on a $1000 portfolio.

But whatever floats your boat! :D


Originally posted by bitteeinbit
I'm a hair cose to shorting it right now. Been thinking about it since I heard that it went down afterhours yesterday. It's a crazy fight right now. I think there's money to be made shorting it within a few days but it's been beaten so bad lately I'm scared it might act like GPR with a big comeback even though it's a relatively slow stock. It's a shame though. A few weeks back management commented on how frustrating it was to always have to defend your accomplishments and never get rewarded. How it was a tiring constant battle and i often feel the same way for a variety of companies.

You've decided RIM is a good short, but you're not 100% sure if you should do it now or later. If you want a position of 300 shares, why not 100 today, 100 next week, and 100 the week after. That way you don't kill yourself on the first 100 if it goes against you, but you still have a piece of the action if it really does tank.

What I'm feeling:
Long: S&P, Crude, Gold,
Short: Sugar, Cotton, US Bonds (pressure from Japan), Short EURO @ 1.50

*Edit... Removed long Greek bonds and added Short Euro @ 1.50