Official Short-term Investments Thread

[ZenOps]

Whoo, $6 drop in the first minutes for Silver.

Haha. Everyone knows that the physical market cannot move that fast. This is all paper movement now. I think the paper holders realize that they might be holding onto "silver certificates", which will neither be honored by the govt or the holding company (with the possible exception of Sprotts physical silver paper)

It sucks that they do it right on a Sunday before any physical mint dealers open in North America, so noone can actually capitalize on the dips except for the people on the other side of the globe.

Opportunity for physical (If you can get any?)

[davidI]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton


You've decided RIM is a good short, but you're not 100% sure if you should do it now or later. If you want a position of 300 shares, why not 100 today, 100 next week, and 100 the week after. That way you don't kill yourself on the first 100 if it goes against you, but you still have a piece of the action if it really does tank.



I think there is some RIM World thing next week where they're going to show off the new Bold. It could push the stock either way so be careful with that.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by davidI


I think there is some RIM World thing next week where they're going to show off the new Bold. It could push the stock either way so be careful with that.

lol, Welcome to the stock market.

I was mainly pointing out he could accumulate a position over time, rather than going all-in pre flop.

[davidI]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton


lol, Welcome to the stock market.

I was mainly pointing out he could accumulate a position over time, rather than going all-in pre flop.

Yep, definitely. I'm actually reading Reminiscences of a Stock Operator right now and that strategy certainly worked for him. Make the bet and if the stock runs the way you expect it to keep pyramiding. Same for selling...

I just wouldn't want to buy into a trend right before a potential big announcement is all...

[bitteeinbit]

Yeah I usually do that, but I I've been trading around the core of NPR.UN for a while and it's working out great. It's just that I'm a bit scared of short-selling because of the slightly higher risk, plus I feel slightly bad when I dp it (which is veeeery rarely). David, how do you find Reminiscences? It's been sitting in my amazon "wish list" along with a few other books for a while. I might order them tonight so they get here during the week. Everyone says it's a classic so I guess it's sure fire, but what do you think about it so far?

[max_boost]

Sell in May and go away.

:D

[davidI]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
David, how do you find Reminiscences? It's been sitting in my amazon "wish list" along with a few other books for a while. I might order them tonight so they get here during the week. Everyone says it's a classic so I guess it's sure fire, but what do you think about it so far?

I've got a .pdf version on my Kindle and have really been enjoying it. I'm not sure if my version is correctly punctuated or not, but a lot of it just seems like an old guy rambling about his wins and losses. I really enjoy it just the same. The market of old seems like it was a lot of fun.

If you understand technical analysis and following trends you may pick up a few things.

I find it motivational though. The guy did well for himself for sure!

[DRKM]

Will osamas death lift the Dow and s&p? :D

[SilverRex]

shake out on metals due to increased margin, this could still be a larger correctional sub wave iv, with price touching around 42, next critical support lies around 39. Last bet for a resumption of silver potentially targeting 54-62.

if 39 holds, bull trend will resume for next target, otherwise be prepare for some increase volatility in coming months as we approach the summer sell off

[RX_EVOLV]

Think oil (HOU/HOD) is going to come back down soon?

[Magic-8-Ball]

Silverrex,

I apologize if you have had to field this question a million times…but, if you don't mind sharing, I was curious what charting software you typically use as I am interested in gaining a little depth to my understanding of EW analysis.

Thanks!

M8B



Originally posted by SilverRex
shake out on metals due to increased margin, this could still be a larger correctional sub wave iv, with price touching around 42, next critical support lies around 39. Last bet for a resumption of silver potentially targeting 54-62.

if 39 holds, bull trend will resume for next target, otherwise be prepare for some increase volatility in coming months as we approach the summer sell off

[davidI]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball
Silverrex,

I apologize if you have had to field this question a million times…but, if you don't mind sharing, I was curious what charting software you typically use as I am interested in gaining a little depth to my understanding of EW analysis.

Thanks!

M8B




Check out stockcharts.com

[SilverRex]

silver continues to seek out a low quite possible between 39-42 hang on.

(who knows 3 months from now, this area could also be the huge correctional bottom however high it may hit (if the top side of the trend hasnt finished)

I'll consider the summer silver correction to have begun if 39 does not hold. Otherwise this is a good pick up for one last run.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Silver may be a wicked play here, the bottom seeking range of 39-42 is basically met.

I would attempt a position here with stops below 39 and target for 55-62 silver.

Then wait for the famous 20%+ drop in the summer for re-load

confirmation of trend resumption is when silver and re-close above 44.6

[max_boost]

Patience Patience Patience. I'm not doing a single thing. Just watching.

[BrknFngrs]

Originally posted by max_boost
Patience Patience Patience. I'm not doing a single thing. Just watching.

:werd:

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Silver may be a wicked play here, the bottom seeking range of 39-42 is basically met.

I would attempt a position here with stops below 39 and target for 55-62 silver.

For once I agree with SilverRex.

Not for the exact same reasons, but open your eyes. There is huge power to the upside on this commodity, it's just being shaken out like a mad man.

Like larry williams says: Oversold in up a strong uptrend = buy buy buy.

Prepare for the improbable but don't expect it: Silver is not likely to collapse, but don't rule it out. Markets can be pretty irrational sometimes.


Originally posted by max_boost
Patience Patience Patience. I'm not doing a single thing. Just watching.

Instead of watching the busy trades you could do yourself a favor and look for big trade setups in other markets! Just a thought. I know for a fact theres some high probability easy trades in other places, just gotta look.

[bitteeinbit]

COMEX raised margin requirements 3 times in under two weeks so I couldn't agree more that there is a shakedown and there are big boys shorting who have to cover soon enough and then silver is going to break up beyond 50 for sure. Some big guys tried keeping it down these past 2 weeks but it's not working. Even after the Bernanke speech the dollar went down and commodities rose which means

The market it trying to tell us something. People are still keeping away from the dollar and seeking refuge elsewhere. It's tricky with May coming around, but either way, silver can't be kept down for ever.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNe...vermargin.html

I hope silver stocks follow suit once silver rises again. I never trade commodities. How do I go around doing that? Can someone give me a crash course on it, or is there a good ETF out there? I see there's HZU if I want to go bull, anyone trade that one? Either way don't you guys think the correction could last much longer than a few days? Like at least a month?

In other news, I sold off MEQ yesterday and happy I did, down another 4% today. Also sold off part of my NPR position and I think my timing is good. I still have a bit to sell if it goes higher, which I suspect it might before the end of the week. Then I'll just wait for it to go down a bit before buying the dip.

[SilverRex]

silver now trading around low 40s. extremely close to the 39.70 critical support. also spotted its in the tail end of a 5 wave down off the 1 hour chart.

I believe it is a good bet for silver to force a reversal and begin one last sub 5 wave rise exceeding the current top around 49.x

next target to reach between 55-62

then I expect a 20% correction in the summer a bare min, yes, it could correct further if it wants. but any steep decline only means a better re-entry, and I suspect this winter mental holders will get very excited. it will be a record/history setting top out in early 2012 that would take years to break (2000-2012) = (1970-1982)

experts are saying what happen in the 80s was Gold's Major wave I rise, and currently is in a wave III cycle. That means once it tops out, it could be many years (correction) before it completes the last wave for a 5 wave cycle according to EW rules. (they say wave 5 in commodities are usually the strongest and can extend like crazy)

however what is interesting is that silver I read is already in a wave 5 which could mean silver would potential rise the most this coming winter.

So be ready and pick your entry. Dont take my word for it, have enough ammo and wait for opportunity. 40 silver right now is one of them. For all I know, months from now, 40 silver could be a darling re-entry

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver050411.jpg

earliest sign that the bullish trend has resume now requires silver to re-capture above 43.50

[SilverRex]

entered hzu.to with stops below 39 silver.

conservative call would wait until silver 42 is breached to the upside

[skandalouz_08]

Seems like your stops might be hit before the end of day, any predictions on how low this silver run will go?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by skandalouz_08
Seems like your stops might be hit before the end of day, any predictions on how low this silver run will go?

I was expecting 39.50 to be the place to hold, short term chart has turned bearish, while this does not kill the medium term trend yet, it sure is dangerous. Many EW chartist are calling for one more wave above 50+, however for all I know, the summer correction may have shown up earlier than expected.

next line of defense would be around 36.7 as the next major support.

To be safe, most would wait until price can re-capture 42+, until that happens, silver continues to remain under pressure

update:wow, it came a hair within my SL, the next few hours will be quite interesting to watch

[bitteeinbit]

Happy I didn't enter HZU. That 2X either kills or makes you happy as fuck. Sold another batch of NPR for a quick buck. Keeping the rest for when it goes back down. I think I'll wait till next Monday or Tuesday to buy silver. They make shake it up in Japan before the Monday open so we'll see what happens. I just hope it goes back up because I'm still in GPR and it's starting to annoy me. Hopefully they publish results with 25-35$ per oz, that should help the stock price go up. I also think it'll start moving ina sideways trend for a bit and hopefully it doesn't break below 3$:
http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/8471/screenshot4jg.png

On a side note: why do I always make decent trades on the stock game but less than stellar ones in real life?
http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/7088/screenshot2gbw.png

My return is nothing spectacular, but 44th out of close to 4000 contestants isn't bad either. It seems I do riskier trades on paper but which often pan out better than some 'low-risk" trades I do in the real market. I entered IMG yesterday and sold half today for 7.5%...

Some of the people are crazy though! The contest has only been going for 3-4 weeks now:
http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/6416/screenshot3sn.png

[ZenOps]

Silver taking a dive. Buying opportunities should be apparent soon, but even I wouldn't try to catch the knife on this one.

If the Comex makes raises the margins one more time, that will be the cue to load up the truck on physical.

Its really sad that Scotiamocatta only allows $9,600 worth of physical per account per day. They know the score...

[4DoorGTZ]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
On a side note: why do I always make decent trades on the stock game but less than stellar ones in real life?


Same here, my fictional portfolio is up 35% and my real life one is down 10%. My safe dividend bets just keep loosing share price IRL and my single stock pick in the game has panned out.

[dimi]

This should be in the long term inv. thread but I only tend to post here. I tend to agree with this comment regarding Ag.


This is a trader's game right now in my view. The long term reasons for owning PM's is unchanged. The budgets still don't balance. The U.S. will still exceed it's current debt limits. The dollar is still in a purposeful devaluation. There is still an international currency-trade war. The long term income transfers/social obligations of the U.S. and virtually all Western nations are still unaffordable. We are still in the Middle East. Wheat, oil, etc. are still all likely to rise and the underlying inflation rate is unchanged.

My weighted average cost is about $38.5. I actually would love to see it drop to $30, for a further buy ins.

In any case, silver needs a good correction. It has been up huge this year, much more than the dollar devaluation that has occured.

PS: I also find it very funny that JPM is being investigated for silver manipulation yet they are the custodian for the SLV trust. So you let a bank being investigated for silver manipulation hold all your silver in their vault. :facepalm:

[ZenOps]

Your wish is my command #4! #4 margin increase in less than two weeks.

http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110504AS_silvermargins.html

"CME Group is hiking silver margins again, with a late-Wednesday notice the fourth such announcement in the last two weeks."

They didn't just bring out the hammer to knock down silver, they brought out the sledgehammer and wrecking ball.

Margin players will have to sell, I will be waiting with the truck for those forced to sell. I do worry a little bit that the physical sellers might not part with their silver based on spot though if it goes too low.

I'm also a little worried that it might be too early to load up. They might margin increase all the way to 100% and squeeze out all the margin players (and potentially bring silver to 1 cent? Because it is afterall 100:1 paper to physical.)

I think most silver players know that silver is manipulated. Its one of the reasons we love it so much.

[bitteeinbit]

Amazing! Something very criminal is going down... Bailing out the big boys who were going short on silver, lol. Paper silver vs real silver, ha! I hope those guys get squeezed good and silver resumes the uptrend. You can't bring it artificially down when inflation is up and the average joe is buying silver like theres no tomorrow.
Look at the Comex reserves, only 33 million ouces:
http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/daves/050411/image002.jpg

[ZenOps]

Nooo! Don't let everyone know that there is only 33 million ounces in worldwide storage left!

Its mine - all mine, my precious :nut:

On a side note: Canada *could* technically buy up the last of the Comex silver in the world for the price of three F-35s... But that would be kind of a dickwad thing to do.

Peak oil my ass, Peak Silver is here - and people can't even see it :facepalm:

[bitteeinbit]

lol, it's not like we're going to run out, but it just shows that people (and more importantly, governments) are stocking gold and silver big time while the dollar keeps tumbling down. But like you say,anywhere between 37$-42$ is a good buy right now.

[ZenOps]

I wouldn't target a price right now.

I'm looking for the end of the 4th margin fee increase, which means at earliest Tuesday morning to buy. But there is also the chance that the first three have already pushed out the majority of margin players.... ARgh! Brain is working overtime.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[skandalouz_08]

Mine is one or the other. Depending what you are looking for you will probably want one or the other.

[SilverRex]

silver 36.7 is the last support that must hold before it turns both short term and medium bearish. If that gives away, then the summer corrections has came. This will kill off the notion that there is one more sub wave v to 60 silver.

I will see how the 37 area plays out in the next day or two or another re-entry.

who knows, maybe if we are lucky we may even get to see 31 as the next target to retest.

also keep in mind, when metals suddenly turns medium bearish, it is usually a sign that the stock market is about to collapse in two months time, liquidity fleeing the market.

[SilverRex]

a quick take on oil, not much has change since my last chart on oil, as you can see, we remains very much in a wave III advance. with the obvious rising trend channel, my expected target to reach in 2011 remains at around 125-127

Critical support remains at around 87 and must hold in order to sustain this target. breaking below would simply oil is in a correction instead.

Otherwise, I expect oil will get a bit of a pause before the next rally, and quite possibly can stretch down to 92-94 area would would be a very good buy area.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil050511.jpg

[Magic-8-Ball]

Silverex

Is your take on Natural Gas still to retest somewhere in the low 3's?

Sure seems like it is headed that way...

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball
Silverex

Is your take on Natural Gas still to retest somewhere in the low 3's?

Sure seems like it is headed that way...

the correction in oil no doubt will add pressure to NG, however, I still see a 5 waves up from 3.7-4.7, and should view the current pull back as a retracement. As long as NG keeps its head above 4.00, there is no reason to believe the up trend has reversed.

we need oil to work out its sub wave iv correction and shoot for a wave III top out, it would should then be able to ignite the next NG rally.

[max_boost]

Yikes. The slaughter in Commodities. :eek:

[ZenOps]

Commodities tanking! Oil tanking!

Drastic move like this could be a precursor to market crash! Blame Silver, Blame Canada!

Buy canned food people, this might be the big one.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[dimi]

And USD is somehow going up.....Wow

[kaput]

.

[dimi]

Let's get out the old checklist:

1) Fed printing dollars, my dollars becoming worthless by the minute. Check

2) No interest on the money in my bank account. Check

3) Cost of food, fuel, necessities of life all going up by the day. Check

4) Can't expand my business cause there's no more new customers, and customers I have are broke. Check

5) Stocks, investments, home value over last 10 years; big downer. Check

6) Buy 30 year bond? I'll be dead before maturity. Check

7) Can't off myself cause insurance policy won't pay for suicide. Check



:rofl:

[997TT]

fkn shit kicking .... breaking through all levels of support.

[ZenOps]

Uh oh.

US dollar up 1.5%

Looks like its over people. The US is going to steal the last of everything they will need for the next decade and let the rest of the world fall apart.

Maybe they are getting ready to announce a quadrillion dollars worth of US dollar printing?

Buy food people.

[max_boost]

Nice. Let's see how far this bad boy can drop. :rofl:

[ZenOps]

Bring it down! Burn the house!

I always wanted to see what the end would look like. You just have to know that they built thousands of fighter jets and hundreds of bombers for more than just transporting six men to take out Bin Laden.

Might as go for one last beer run.

[SilverRex]

its a awesome take down of silver

next major support which I think will at least give us a dead cat bounce until we can confirm a reversal is at around 32-33.x

as a reminder in case you missed it, the weakening metals is a foreshadow of what is to come in the stock market. Liquidity is fleeing the market. (it will be day trader heaven comes Jun)

[dimi]

Im guessing your stops were hit a long time ago.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by dimi
Im guessing your stops were hit a long time ago.

you bet, going to see how it reacts around 33 as that should offer the next support. if 32-33 cracks, then it could seriously open a straight shot down to 21

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
Nice. Let's see how far this bad boy can drop. :rofl:

Big time. I've been sitting on cash waiting for this. Looking forward to getting back in on some volatilitity!

[TheRealTimHorton]

I'm starting to think technicals aren't a factor. When everyone is convinced it is a short now, as is starting to happen, it will start to build momentum to the upside again. I would still accumulate a long position in Silver.. When fundamentals and technicals have diverged, stick with the fundys.

As for Crude.. wouldn't touch it. It's a demand driven commodity and demand has probably plummeted enough to warrant the drop.

[ZenOps]

10% moves in oil.

Its done like dinner. You might as well have 50% moves in corn and wheat. Will the markets react accordingly tomorrow or shrug it off as a blip?

IMO, the whole market is going to lose credibility soon.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[ZenOps]

Originally posted by e36bmw///


That guy must be punching himself right now

Used his credit card to purchase more silver, even at $50

Silver physical players usually don't get angry at high price. They get angry that they couldn't get more because the price dropped.

This is a shakeout of massive proportions though. Could it go back up to $50 nearly as quickly? Maybe, but only the physical... The paper might become detached from its value in this stunt.

Look on ebay for the almost 1/4 ounce maple leaf coin. Its selling for about $37 or so, even today ($140/ounce). Spot demand is becoming increasingly irrelevant to actual physical demand, which means the dollar is decoupling from "real tangible value", which is scary as hell - because if that ever happens for food we are screwed.

Sort of like the old US government Silver certificate, redeemable for silver. Its worth when it was taken off the silver standard - became $1 worth of paper (equivalent to a $1 bill) the smart ones redeemed their certificates for the actual silver before they nullified the ability.

Never forget - governments can do whatever they want with paper. Mexico chopped three zeroes off their dollar in 1993, making a 1000 pesos of paper, worth 1 peso, but they could not devalue the silver and copper coinage - which retained their value through the devaluation. It is sometimes a harsh lesson on reality.

But to be honest - the US does not need to drop a zero from their currency. The sad truth is that it is already is worth 1/10th what it was 8 years ago or so when compared to real assets like silver (and gold, and corn, and other real goods)

The question now is - is 1/10th a devaluation enough? or should it continue? Have no illusion, this current battering of silver (and all commodities) is a desperate attempt to make the dollar not look like an absolute loser.

In my personal opinion, it still has to get a lot closer to 1/15th to 1/20th the value of where it was a decade ago to catchup with the debt policy and rampant money printing.

[SilverRex]

33 is here for silver, oil 95 is here (although 92 would be the key to watch)

either way, I expect short covering and bargain hunting to lift commodities back up and will rally here.

will wait for confirmation silver (over 36) oil over 101, before entertaining any idea of a real reversal.

going to try to enter a position here at 33.x and see how she goes

update: bought a position at 34.7 silver stops below 33.00

[TheRealTimHorton]

Silver long right now is a trade I wouldn't mind being ultra aggressive on.

[bitteeinbit]

You sure it wouldn't correct for a bit longer? I'm really tempted to get into HZU. In the stock game, I bought HZU two days ago and HZD as well. I covered HZD this morning for a 10% gain or so, now just waiting for HZU to pick up.

I'm looking at HZU for my real portfolio now, but despite the huge drop I'm still nervous. Maybe I should pick up a tiny position or wait till Tuesday for one of the margins to expire?

[dimi]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton
Silver long right now is a trade I wouldn't mind being ultra aggressive on.

:werd:

I went to pick up a few coins yesterday. Big line up @ Albern. A few people even started trading in the lineups.

I think a bit of HZU would be nice. Paper games are fun too.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
You sure it wouldn't correct for a bit longer?


Bro, this is the markets you can't be sure of anything. I'll give you my rationale though.

There are three major players in the markets: the professionals (speculators), the hedgers (business operations) and the little guy (uninformed speculators).

The professionals cannot avoid the fact that majority of the little guys will understand the ramifications of the Bernanke printing press and inflation and all that jazz. This has created a big influx of cash into the silver markets--as a result you see the insanely strong price action; additionally fueled by the professionals also pumping and buying it up. Who is selling on the way up? Alot of it would be the hedgers for business purposes (lets keep it simple).

It is the professionals job to take money out of the little guys pocket, because, quite frankly, if they couldn't accomplish this then they would be out of a job and the industry wouldn't exist. How do they do this? They have to engineer a plan of how to take this VAST sum of money away from you. I think this is what they came up with:

Let the little guy recognize that silver is the right place to be (because it is), let the little guy keep buying it up, hell we will even help them and make some money along the way. Ok, now its at that point of unsustainable move, we need a way to destroy the little guys positions and buy them for a discount. Usually we would create tremendous selling pressure, but the euphoria on Silver right now is so great I don't think it's going to work (those cock suckers will just BTFD!). I have another idea though, we can call our powerful friends and get them to quadruple the margin requirements for holding Silver. This would significantly magnify our selling pressure and hopefully send it down pretty hard.

It works. Margin calls galore! The little guy cannot help but panic and it creates a violent vortex of selling (also the professionals who are over leveraged have to sell, but thats just their bad position sizing). You can bet on the way down the professionals have been buying because they understand there is no fundamental change in the situation.

To top it all off, the "smart" traders who use technical analysis and voodoo will resort to the momentum rationalization and hopefully they will get slaughtered too by overstaying their welcome on the short side.

Overall it's just a temporary decoupling of fundamentals and technicals where the professionals have everyone completely and utterly confused.

Of course, this is just a guess.

[dimi]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton

It is the professionals job to take money out of the little guys pocket, because, quite frankly, if they couldn't accomplish this then they would be out of a job and the industry wouldn't exist. How do they do this? They have to engineer a plan of how to take this VAST sum of money away from you. I think this is what they came up with:

Let the little guy recognize that silver is the right place to be (because it is), let the little guy keep buying it up, hell we will even help them and make some money along the way. Ok, now its at that point of unsustainable move, we need a way to destroy the little guys positions and buy them for a discount. Usually we would create tremendous selling pressure, but the euphoria on Silver right now is so great I don't think it's going to work (those cock suckers will just BTFD!). I have another idea though, we can call our powerful friends and get them to quadruple the margin requirements for holding Silver. This would significantly magnify our selling pressure and hopefully send it down pretty hard.

It works. Margin calls galore! The little guy cannot help but panic and it creates a violent vortex of selling (also the professionals who are over leveraged have to sell, but thats just their bad position sizing). You can bet on the way down the professionals have been buying because they understand there is no fundamental change in the situation.

To top it all off, the "smart" traders who use technical analysis and voodoo will resort to the momentum rationalization and hopefully they will get slaughtered too by overstaying their welcome on the short side.

Overall it's just a temporary decoupling of fundamentals and technicals where the professionals have everyone completely and utterly confused.

Of course, this is just a guess.

How could I have said this better myself! Good analysis!

The little sheep would be foolish to think the big guys didn't know 4 margin hikes are coming. Or better put as Timmie said, they made CME hike margins 4 times while they were shorting.

[ZenOps]

Albern should be hiring a some extra full time security next week if things start going the way I think they are going to be going.

We live in strange times... If a man pays more in gasoline to go to work than he makes actually working - does that mean it all falls apart?

If gas rises to what the cost really is (and is really the only thing that could reduce the countries debt) will it cause another recession?

IMO, there are rumblings this week that they are considering raising the margins on oil speculators.

[SilverRex]

did not play oil this week, but I will be happy with a lower gasoline prices. paid like 1.38/L on 94 Husky, ouch!

[bitteeinbit]

Interesting take and I totally agree with the fundamental issues you bring up. What I'm wondering though, is if this (today) is the best entry point. Rarely does a stock have a "v" top (rarely does it also have a "v" bottom). With summer coming along, I'm ensure as to what we'll have in store. I'm pretty sure many big players are now going long. I'm a true believer than given the current state of affairs, silver will keep rising up and beyond 50. Never have a read so much into commodities as these past few weeks.

What I'm wondering though, is what the best entry point is. None is perfect one of course, but say for example I enter HZU today. Silver drops another 15% over 3-4 months. That's a 30% loss for HZU, which is big, even had I decided to enter with 1/4 of what I wanted to trade with. You'll need nerves of steel and an iron belief that silver will eventually rise up. When it does, you'll have waisted a potential big gain, unless you bought down substantially at strategic times, which would also require cahones the size of watermelons.


Also (not that I think it'll make a big difference):
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42930592

Today around 11h30 I thought of buying in TCF at 0.28 but figured, how much higher can it go? LOL These penny stocks never cease to amaze me!

[SilverRex]

katching the 39-41 area was unsuccessful least week, however katching the 33-34 area appears to be solid so far.

For those who doesnt look at charts, the current idea on the street is as follow.

Last week, I suggested the 33 area would offer a solid bounce due to oversold and bargain hunting but more importantly, there were 3 important support igniting a temporary bottom and a potentially solid rebound.

it was the 38% retracement from the 2008 low, a previous upper trend channel breakout as well as a short term rising trend line. When you have this many technical supports, it is bound to attract many investor regardless if silver's bubble has burst or not.

the question is, will it remain bullish? if so, I expect the low is in and it will continue to offer higher lows until another breakout occurs. The June 13 turn date is as extremely as important than ever because if it generates a low on that day, we could be looking at 50+ silver

However a typical correction requires a lower low, and hence it is completely possible for silver to run its course in this 'dead cat bounce' and find another leg down to the 28-31 area.

I would only questions the longer term picture if silver breaks below 28 and especially below 25. Otherwise let's just say this is as violent a shake out can ever be. As for as metals concern, the last 10 years Silver has produce the highest gain 900%+ gold was some where around 460%, crude oil 292% etc etc (just for the record, NG -11%) <-- I see NG will have its day eventually.

update: Silver must hold above 36 or risk retest 33 (potentially igniting another 5 waves down to 28-31)

a break above 38.27 is needed to generate further upside to retest 41-42

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver050911.jpg

[korym]

silver climbing back up from the huge landslide....?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by korym
silver climbing back up from the huge landslide....?

its like selling a car, you can always get rid of it as long as the price is right.

price will never move if there isnt an amount of buyer and seller. Hopefully we will see more buyers at this level, but given how silver performs, it can move up as quickly as it goes down and vice versa.

time will tell if the bottom is in or not.

[dimi]

Its hard to "forecast" a very deliberate attempt to demolish silver with 4 margin hikes in 8 days. If you play paper silver, better have some big balls. A lot of grown men were crying last week.

[korym]

how can I see records of the 4 margin hikes? Where is that information stored?

[ZenOps]

I think it was actually 5 margin hikes in 4 announcements over the last two weeks.

The end of the last hike should be hitting in a few hours. Those who cannot meet margin must sell by the end of the day today. That would be a much safer time to buy. But if they raise margins again - then its bearish again.

Very hard to tell where its going from here. But I'm in the camp that the general trend is way up. Its just a matter of trying to pick up cheap physical before it dries up entirely.

Scotiamocatta might have a few random bars coming back onto the market, they have some 1 ounce maples left. Apmex is selling eagles at $7 over spot.

Endlessmountain on Youtube explains it pretty well

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DRWm5uYFQ4

[SilverRex]

Gold critical support remains at 1444, so long this holds, gold still have a 5 wave up to possibly hitting 1650-1780 projected target based on wave 3 price.

Silver is so far doing great, it has over come the previous broken water line after stalling much of yesterday under 38 (now 38.50)

dollar index ih&s spotted on 1 hour and could signal further dollar weakness ahead, if that is the case, it would be metal positive.

I expect silver to retest 40-41 soon.

[bitteeinbit]

Got into ENB today for what I think is a no-brainer. I had been waiting for it to reach the 20ma for about a week now. Hammer formation along the 20dm yesterday (but was not home in the afternoon so bought in this morning). Looking at a daily chart, there are a ton of those that form in this very solid stock. Overall a good risk-reward ratio.

[Akumaz]

did anyone buy HZU in the 30s, or above?
65.5+ % drop today =S

[skandalouz_08]

Originally posted by Akumaz
did anyone buy HZU in the 30s, or above?
65.5+ % drop today =S

The stock was split 3:1 today.

http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=40723003&qm_symbol=HZU

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Akumaz
did anyone buy HZU in the 30s, or above?
65.5+ % drop today =S

Or wait, did anyone buy GAS.TO

:bigpimp:

haha j/k :facepalm:

[ZenOps]

On a side note, Citigroup did a 1:10 split yesterday.

One of the two major banks in the US did a reverse split. The US and Canadian media completely missed it - which means that its game over people, they are trying to hide it.

You want to be physical *anything* right now. Physical silver, gold, coffee, even canned food.

[RX_EVOLV]

How long until the split is recognized in your account?? I'm with questrade and the live chat person told me it usually takes 10-12 business??? :nut:

[e36bmw///]

nm

[dimi]

Holy Fuck I couldn't stop laughing for a good 10 mins.

https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/_wkgIzuqJM0w/THqZkD1vb3I/AAAAAAAAFpk/WaJUEQ6oI9g/s1024/PERIODIC%20TABLE%20%283%29.jpg

[bitteeinbit]

Silver crashing back down big time.

[bitteeinbit]

Oops double post.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Silver crashing back down big time.

Nothing is doing so great today... Gasoline down 750bps, they halted trading for a bit. Silver down 750bps, Crude down 350..

Would probably bail on that silver long now.. Not worth holding overnight in case they want to punish bottom feeders now. At least I would deleverage.

And this is why I said wouldn't touch crude! You don't really know whats going on lol. I think its too soon for a demand collapse but should be fun to watch. I would do a light short on it temporarily anyways.

I don't understand why everything is down though... lol

Keep in mind guys the market has done crazier shit. I wouldn't discount the fact that silver might tank hard still, same with oil.

IMO Safest play is long S&P and a continued short on Euro

[ZenOps]

Down silver goes! Roller coaster.

You know, I think the powers that be are picking on silver to see if we are in general paying too much for "speculative froth".

It looks like the US is willing to attempt a "dollar detach" from all commodities in a last ditch effort to keep inflation from snowballing.

The optimist in me is cheering that we can postpone armageddon, and the pessimist in me says that people are going to start running for the hills with whatever they can carry.

Thank jeebus we are in Canada. The Euro is falling apart as you are reading this.

[max_boost]

Sell in May and go away still? lol

[ZenOps]

http://money.cnn.com/2011/05/11/news/economy/gold_debt_ceiling/index.htm?iid=HP_LN

Geitner says they won't sell gold.

Pshh, you could sell every ounce the US has and its *only* $400 Billion. They printed more than that in each emergency QE.

China: "C'mon, sell it! Its just dull yellow heavy metal"

[dimi]

In a letter sent to Congress last month, Geithner said any "fire sale" of assets would be "damaging to financial markets and the economy" and would "undermine confidence in the United States."

:rofl:

[ZenOps]

It *is* sell in May. But for every seller there is a buyer, why do people buy in may?

Sell the paper, buy the physical in May. Commodities 101.

[SilverRex]

as expected, silver is marching down towards a lower low. the sweet spot would be to see silver rally off between 28-31.

However I see gold a bit more bullish than silver, as it does appear to look like a megaphone/widening wedge pattern. once it breaks over the upper line.

silver looks more like a regular declining channel which will have its own breakout, but my view is that with silver breaking below 33 yet gold remains a higher low and couple with the pattern I just mention. We could be looking at a high gold price while silver simply moves back to the 47-50 area and be capsized. (potentially a strong dollar post mid june cycle) could break silver apart - 2008 repeat.

Confirmation that bottom would be in requires gold back above 1500 and silver above 35 imo.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold051211.jpg

[ZenOps]

We are now seeing a disconnect in Silver paper pricing.

SLV paper silver is trading at up to a 10% variance to other paper silver. Sprotts paper silver has traded anywhere up to a 20% premium over other paper silver in the past.

Its such a ridiculous game... You can buy a paper ounce of silver for more or less than the other guys paper silver.

[SilverRex]

looks like gold has turn bullish on the lower level chart. IF gold closes above 1516 I would say its a pretty good bet is on course to hit a new high.

silver may or may not break above 50, but will rise along side.

We may see a new top in place by June 13th, then a sharper correction after.

[bitteeinbit]

Is there a Canadian ETF that exists with which I can short the Euro?

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Is there a Canadian ETF that exists with which I can short the Euro?

You're probably better off just shorting the actual currency..

[ZenOps]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Is there a Canadian ETF that exists with which I can short the Euro?

I was thinking the exact same.

What crazyness they actually believed that they could unite Europeans under a common currency. I have difficulty even believing they won't be at each others throats (over bailouts) soon.

[bitteeinbit]

I've never played on the Forex? How does it work? What's the ticker symbol for the Euro? I just sell it the same way I would a stock? Sorry I've never traded and have never even read any books or info on forex trading...

[ChappedLips]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
I've never played on the Forex? How does it work? What's the ticker symbol for the Euro? I just sell it the same way I would a stock? Sorry I've never traded and have never even read any books or info on forex trading...


I wouldn't recommend it. But basically the currencies trade in pairs rather than just like a single stock. So for example you could go long on the USD and short on the Euro or whatever other currency you want.

You might want to read into it a little more as you can lose quite a bit of money really fast, you never know what is really going on in the currency market or what the fed will do next.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by ChappedLips
I wouldn't recommend it.

You wouldn't recommend it? The only reason you should advise against something is because it has some kind of engineered faultiness, not because it doesn't fit your own personal risk appetite.

The rest I agree with. FOREX Is composed of pairs, e.g. USD/CAD or USD/EUR and they are highly leveraged trading tools. Because of this you would want to scale down your trade size significantly. Thus if you bought USD/EUR, you would want the USD to appreciate against the Euro, or you would want the Euro to depreciate against the USD. If you shorted the USD/EUR, you would want the opposite--you would want the EUR to rise and the USD to fall.

I think of it like this, when you see a pair, make it into a number. USD/CAD For example

1USD / 1CAD = 1
1.5USD / 0.5CAD = 3
0.5USD / 1.5CAD = 0.333

Basically just do your research. This isn't something that you want to learn on Beyond.

[SilverRex]

NG is strugging, while I expect it will rally back to test 4.50, unless it can quickly break above 4.9, it may retest the low 3s.

I would recommend only trade NG if it can sustain above 4.9, otherwise all entry should have tight stop incase of a bullish invalidation that would take down price very quickly.

gold did not sustain above 1516 last week to turn it back into bullish territory. the trend channel is holding it down now at 1507 which needs to be broken in order to ignite any further rally.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Wicked, I bought an absolute shitload of TMX group (TSX:X) stock last Thursday... I just made a small fortune today :D

Still kind of pissed at myself for missing the Forzani Group spike when CT agreed to buy them out, it was on my radar and I ignored it :banghead:

Sick trade.. Good job man.

Don't hold on until it sewers though! :poosie: