Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

silver running out of room to play. we will know one way or the other if she will break down or spring up. Looking at a possible LHR bottom, I'll place my bet to the upside.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver051711.jpg

[Sugarphreak]

...

[SilverRex]

if gold can get back above 1482, and especially above 1502 ish, then we would have a very solid 3-3-3 correction for a good reversal. that would pave the way for gold towards a higher high

also im execpting the dollar to correct significantly as there is just way too many overlap on the 1 hour chart to fuel further highs.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold051711.jpg

[bitteeinbit]

Rex, what's your take on GPR? I'm still holding that fucker and it's annoying me more and more.

Here's my current take on it:
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/770/screenshottxa.png

It broke down what I considered resistance last Friday. Now I'm waiting to see it touch the 200ma. I'm guessing the drop is a combination of "sell in May" and the dropping silver price. I'm bullish on silver for the long-term, but I'm not sure if silver stocks are the best bet even for the long-term. Plus, silver just keeps dropping so it's causing mass sell-offs in the silver producers. I figure I'm down so much now that I might as well wait as see what happens when it touches the 200. If it drops below I should cut my losses but if not I might wait a few weeks and if it start back up I'll buy down. What does TA tell you?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Rex, what's your take on GPR? I'm still holding that fucker and it's annoying me more and more.

Here's my current take on it:
http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/770/screenshottxa.png

It broke down what I considered resistance last Friday. Now I'm waiting to see it touch the 200ma. I'm guessing the drop is a combination of "sell in May" and the dropping silver price. I'm bullish on silver for the long-term, but I'm not sure if silver stocks are the best bet even for the long-term. Plus, silver just keeps dropping so it's causing mass sell-offs in the silver producers. I figure I'm down so much now that I might as well wait as see what happens when it touches the 200. If it drops below I should cut my losses but if not I might wait a few weeks and if it start back up I'll buy down. What does TA tell you?

right now its in a free fall which does look pretty ugly in the short term, over all chart looks as tough it has completed wave III and is currently correcting into a large wave IV correction. I suspect the lower level to be seeking a wave (A) bottom, a wave (B) should follow it back up to 3.00+ before another leg down to a lower low. until it can get back above 3.52, over all feel is either corrective or very bearish at the moment.

[997TT]

i am tempted to play GPR here but haven't bought.

picked up SBB at $6.06 and ML at $2.94
stops set really tight as this mkt is on shaky ground...i think through out the summer.

[davidI]

I'm not SR...but my take on GPR is that you should hope for a bounce off $2.50 and then look to get out.

Trend is obviously down. MACD has been negative for quite some time.

RSI is down at 30 which may reflect a good buying opportunity, so as I'd say, I'd wait to sell until you get a good bounce. I'm not bullish on the stock by any stretch, but there may be a short term trade here.

Off $3 support, there was solid buying volume and the price got up to almost $3.75. You can hope to get a similar bounce up to $2.75 or so off of the $2.50 support.

I know nothing of the company, and don't know what they produce, but if you're thinking it will improve based on a rebounding silver price, I can't see it happening. The negative downtrend started when silver prices were bullish...

[bitteeinbit]

What do you think longer-term? Say 3-6 months? Or even 1 year? I know it;s hard to predict but I'm willing to hold long term also, yet when stocks start freefalling it's never a good sign. I look at stoch a lot but sometimes it's in oversold territory but just stays there... The past few drops where on low-volume though so not sure what to think of it. They are late releasing their drilling news though (not officially, just waiting out). I'll what what happens today. A hammer seems to maybe be forming. If it does bounce for a few days and then starts falling again I think I might just bail out as you say. I've been waiting for a jump to dump as many stocks as possible as the markets are really on unstable grounds right now. I rather have cash and wait it out. Shame though, got into it at really the worst possible time...

[TheRealTimHorton]

You guys love to play with fire.

If anyone is considering buying GPR at any point in the near future I really hope you lose money so you will actually learn something.

If anything, wait until it's overbought and then short again.

Why would you gamble and try for an upside play when it could SO EASILY get pounded again? I don't know. But it's your money.

Especially considering how god damn weak it was in lieu of hard rallying silver.

I'm just saying you guys are thinking backwards, where a pro is thinking "I'll short a little more today, and then wait to short more later" while you're thinking "I want to buy".

Just makes 1000% more sense to wait for a grander opportunity to short it rather than gamble and go long.

[davidI]

I'm with TheRealTimHorton on this one. Might day / swing trade the bounce, if it happens, but long term I think it's a dog and your $ would be better in lots of other stocks.

Losers buy Losers.

Losers also hold losers...

[SilverRex]

as posted yesterday 1500-1502 still remains the critical neckline that could either keep gold down or produce a breakout. and if breakout occurs, the current scenario will be to expect gold to move into wave .iii/.v for one last top, then we could hit a steeper correction.

1462 must hold for this to remain valid.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold051811.jpg

[Sugarphreak]

...

[997TT]

^^ sweet. There is no way i'm up 10% in the last 3 months...haha. prob closer to down 10% easy.

Just sold ML for a nice little gain. have a sell order in for SBB at $6.30

edit: SBB just filled. Made about $1100 btw the 2.

man need to stay patient in this mkt....pick my spots. too many bad losses lately.

[troyl]

Time to rebuy cll at 1.12 997t?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[997TT]

Originally posted by troyl
Time to rebuy cll at 1.12 997t?

I picked up a small position at $1.18
my contact says it should have a good quarter coming up and that he is buying some more stock once their internal blackout is lifted. If you got better plays i would definately go for those...but i opted to take a small position.

[ZenOps]

Commodities up up up. WTI Crude up $3.

This is a very bullish sign. They chopped out the speculative fluff, and now the more solidly backed players are in again.

I think it is the US governments intention to take the speculators out of the market. Little known, is that they would expect prices for commodities to drop... But what may end up happening is that the commodities will end up more "right priced" - which can be much higher than the speculated price.

Margin speculators have always put instability into the market - take them out of the market and people will flood into them even more than before.

It may not make sense, but its human nature. Sort of like how silver people will buy silver at $50 and sell it at $35.

It does mean that a loaf of bread will probably be $5 by summer if this continues... But perhaps that was the price all along, and was just artificially low because of speculation.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow GPR had a nice rebound today
16% since yesterdays low

Why don't you buy some!!! It might go back to $5!!!! lol

[e36bmw///]

nm

[davidI]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow GPR had a nice rebound today
16% since yesterdays low

It did exactly as I said it would - bounced off $2.50 and made a solid gain. Some trades may have been triggered by the RSI hitting 30 as well. Less volume this time than what had happened off $3.00 so I'm still bearish on it...especially after the pop.

[SilverRex]

from my last post, gold needed to break above 1500 to confirm trend reversal,

15 min chart shows we will have a shot today and if capturing above 1500 is any indication we are ready for the next final up swing for the next few weeks which should take us above 1575. Silver may just get near 50 and correct again

1472 will be key support for today. 10/20 EMA is about to cross over on the daily chart. So gold must break 1500 today or risk a lower low towards a retest of 1444

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold051911-1.jpg

[in*10*se]

anyone watching linked in LNKD

140% so far today on ipo...

[korym]

I am thinking that LNKD is going to keep going.

[davidI]

THe fundamentals aren't there...LNKD probably won't even turn a profit this year, but you can obviously trade the trend with the market!

[korym]

Definitely not a long play, but ride the trend and try to get out before the bubble pops.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by davidI
THe fundamentals aren't there...LNKD probably won't even turn a profit this year, but you can obviously trade the trend with the market!

How do you measure the fundamentals on a company whos revenue would be based mostly off advertising? Facebook? Google?

[davidI]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton


How do you measure the fundamentals on a company whos revenue would be based mostly off advertising? Facebook? Google?

Well I heard that their IPO (@ $45) was 17x revenue and thus @ $95 they'd be over 35x revenue and not expected to turn a profit this year (they made less than $20 million last year).

Google's market cap is $171 B, they're pulling in revenue of $30 billion (trading at <6x revenue), net income of $8.5 B annually, P/E of <21 and EPS of $26.

To me it's a speculative trade and you better be hoping for a lot of growth on the bottom line to make the current valuation make any sense.

[SilverRex]

gold has finally broken the important 1500, looking for a retest under before next leg higher (expecting to not go lower than 1487-90)

silver is currently rounding out a handle of a cup and handle pattern with breakout above 35.6 which will target 38-39s quickly.

oil triple bottom at 95 appears solid and is on a minor correction before moving higher (obviously 95 needs to hold to stay away from any panic selling) from now until mid june, expecting market to remain resilient, then we shall see what the dollar is made off, different counts both suggest dollar is due to drop in coming weeks with one bullish suggestion that the remaining half of the year could see great dollar strength that would signal another wave of deflationary period similar to 2008.

Interesting months ahead. Thats for sure.

update: looks like gold at 1487 was right on the money, it held and breakout resumed, it should have enough strength to test our first key support at 1516 follow by 1526

[bitteeinbit]

I havn't had internet for 2-3 days as I moved and almost had a heart attack when I checked ENB today... Took me about 2 seconds to see it was just a stock split and not a 50% decrease, lol. I love that stock so much. It's probably the easiest out there to trade short-term. Very little risk too.

[SilverRex]

Looking at the latest dollar index weekly chart, it appears dollar is very close in backtesting a previous neckline, imo the coming months will be extremely telling. I expect in the short term the dollar to be bearish thus retesting the low near 73 which should give the general market including (metals) one more lift higher however the sudden rise in dollar strength this summer will no doubt cause some volatility and so be prepared starting next month that we could face alot of selling pressure (after this final up tick completes)

My current bet is that after the dollar completes a flat correction over the summer, it would begin a massive wave III drop to new lows and this would set up gold and silver to produce the final expected 2012 top (targeting gold 2000+ and perhap silver 60-100 dollars)

however the alt count suggest if dollar was to regain its footing and invalidate the bearish view by re-capturing above the previous neckline shown here, then we could face a serious deflationary environment very similar to 2008 this would certainly damage gold/silver significantly.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar052311.jpg

Looking at Gold as you can see the breakout above 1500 as suggested as nearly completed its initial target towards 1526, I now expect 1500 to be the underlying critical support in pushing gold towards a 5 waves sequence for a new top. Silver on the other hand because the latest correction has damaged the price significantly, it may not achieve a new high and 50 silver may continue to be a top for a while.

Expecation is that once a top is in. we would witness a more significant down slide that should last months, and depending on how the dollar plays out this summer, it could potentially signal a generation top just like in the 80s.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold052311.jpg

NG not much to write home above, a solid double bottom off 4.14 is very encouraging and could setup for a coming breakout, however until it can break above 4.90, its still rather risky. A breach below 4.00 would immediately remove any bullish idea in the short term and a retest in the low 3s would prevail. So make sure any stop loss are set for any NG play.

with metals rebounding this week and the next, I expect oil to get out of its funk providing 95 holds and looking for it to retest 105-107

update: gold very close in breaking above 1526, doing so would trigger further buying since many stops for shorts are placed above this area.

[997TT]

Anybody follow MBI on the NYSE?

debating buying here but thought i'd see if anybody here follows it

[TheRealTimHorton]

Ultra long Silver and Crude.

[bitteeinbit]

I'm still long on silver but I'm still not sure when the best moment to jump in would be. But maybe I should stop being greedy and look at HZU and rather look at an ETF that just follows the price with no X2. Less gains but less risk also.

[SilverRex]

there is a rising megaphone (or widening wedge) pattern for the dollar index on the lower time frame. This is bearish and I see the dollar to start crashing down once it can break the neckline currently situated near 75.15

obviously once that happens, metals should be well into seeking its final top for the summer.

while gold is currently on path to produce a higher high, I see silver retesting its fibo levels starting at 39, 41 then 43. and potentially having its run killed at 46 (78% fibo) Physical holders need not be concern, but I would suggest to use those levels for a plan exit

update: I have 2 position established in around 34 (currently up 25%), will be exiting one position at 39 silver and monitor the other with a rising SL towards the possibility of seeing 43-46

[s_havinga]

Whats everyone's thoughts on oil? It seems to have been sitting just under $100 for a while now. Ready for the next move up or a crash down?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by s_havinga
Whats everyone's thoughts on oil? It seems to have been sitting just under $100 for a while now. Ready for the next move up or a crash down?

few days ago I posted that as long as 95 oil holds it is gearing up for a retest of 105-107

[Akumaz]

for penny stockers,
PTU
ABN
been doing some research, they will bounce back up in the next few month. Expect an reasonanle bounce in the short term. And even in long term, they look like an good investment, as uranium has bottomed out, and with china and indias nuclear advancements, uranium prices are on the upswing.

http://www.u3o8.biz/s/Home.asp

[SilverRex]

with silver virtually achieved the 39 area over night, I expect it is now in a sub wave iv correction that should go no lower than 35.76, once this correction is finished which shouldnt take too long maybe a day or two it should then resume another mini wave up to next target level around 41. it is to my understanding that silver may run its course between 43-49 while gold putting in a new high, also watch for 34.5, if this is broken, I would expect newer lows ahead.

for gold its own support range is between 1504-1516, look for this area to become the next support for next leg higher

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver052611-1.jpg

[SilverRex]

here is a quick shot at gold, bottom of this correction may already be in. spotted ih&s on the 5 min chart, comparing how similar this correction is from the previous one (circled) next leg higher could very well be on its way

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold052611.jpg

[SilverRex]

a quick update on gold, both count and current cup/handle rounded bottom suggest gold price to retest 1575 at the least just waiting for it to breaking out from the handle with price currently capped at 1528

if breakout does not occur today, there is a possibility it can still extend the handle out by another day given a typical handle correction usually produces a 38% correction which points to 1510 so keep that in mind

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold052711.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[bitteeinbit]

Sold part of my ENB on Tuesday but it's still gong up. Happy I didn't sell all of it now. I'll back back again when it goes back under the 20ma. I also got some PD today. Not the best timing to be honest (stoch shows it as oversold) but I'm not too worried given the current trend. I suspect it'll at least reach a new high within a week or so but if it keeps going I'll likely just hold on.

[SilverRex]

NG has got back and above the 4.5 area as suggested, now its do or die, if this is the breakout run towards 6.0+ then 4.4-4.45 must hold, otherwise I would wait as potentially it can retest the low 3s incoming months.

Gold is moving steadily higher and still expecting a higher high above 1576+

however imo key support now lies at 1526.59, if broken, then this could all be a bear count towards a lower low (below 1460)

so keep watch

[bitteeinbit]

Wow, so PD ended up being a good buy last Friday... Also, this is hardly news anymore but Germany is getting rid of nuclear power, so much for uranium! It'll come back price-wise maybe but the human in me is happy about this. Nuclear power is shitty in most circumstances.

[SilverRex]

as posted before, while gold is currently bullish bears will want to change all of that, it would be a shorting heaven if the alt count comes to being. imo I believe the 1526 will be the key support that needs to hold if we are to see price continue to advance further towards a new high. the 1547-1552 area will be the final resistance to watch since there lies 3 interesting setup, a 78% retracement level from the 1576 to 1460 dip, a base channel top as well as an accelerated rising channel top all meeting around the same area.

That is why I say it would be bear's best interest to make a stand here, so bulls need to break this area to see gold make a new high. failure to do so and price breaking below 1526 would begin to dim the current count and I will start to favor a downside picture targeting below 1460.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold053111.jpg

a quick peak at Natgas, my count still suggest a potential breakout play towards 6.00+ however 4.4 now must hold imo if we are to see that happening anytime soon, failure to hold above 4.4 now would indicate the chance of seeing a H&S pattern that will retest mid to lows 3s so yes 4.4 is the line in the sand

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/Natgas053111.jpg

[SilverRex]

update: rising channel of its own for silver, if 38 holds, it is targeting my previously suggested upper target of 41

I had two position with silver in the 33/34s, sold one last week at 38, and last position will go at 41 (about 13.2 hnu, bought at 8.88 for a gain of about 50%)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver053111.jpg

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by SilverRex
a quick update on gold, both count and current cup/handle rounded bottom suggest gold price to retest 1575 at the least just waiting for it to breaking out from the handle with price currently capped at 1528

if breakout does not occur today, there is a possibility it can still extend the handle out by another day given a typical handle correction usually produces a 38% correction which points to 1510 so keep that in mind



All time highs in CAD right now. :)


Whats your thesis on the multi year correction in PMs after 2012, you mentioned in the house thread? Interested to hear your thoughts.

[SilverRex]

gold is still very much in its own rising channel with support near 1526 as a result though silver broken 38 its next support now lies near 37. I would use gold's 1526 support for gold as a way to spot silver's latest flat correction.

update: gold finally breaking out, targeting 1550, new support at 1540


gold just hit 1550 which will be a key area as to where we go from here, silver continues to struggle to reach higher which confirms that gold can still make a new high while silver is still in a correctional phase.

I've exited my last silver position at 11.57 hzu for a 30% gain, will wait and see if gold corrects.

[SilverRex]

selling my silver in the 38 yesterday appears to be the right move thus far, with silver key support and must remain above 35.7 to resume any bullish favor, I may re-enter with a small rick if silver is to reach a bit lower

breakout now requires silver to pass 38.5 before any significant progress can be made.

Gold achieving the 1547-1552 target as previously suggested proves to be dead on however with silver unable move along side may be of a telling sign that the general market is much weaker than first thought and this coming summer could be very dangerous and easily setup for some very violent moves I would recommend staying on the side line to see what takes shape in the next few months

imo as long as gold remains above 1526, I expect it is still very much alive towards testing 1570 if not formulate one more new high within 2 weeks top.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver060211.jpg

[SilverRex]

Natgas is looking strong again, as previously suggested as long as 4.4 holds, potentially this could be the 6.0+ move we've been waiting for

update: added a silver position at 36.7 with stop below 35.7 (as I spotted 5 min divergence developing on both gold/silver)

gold's 3-3-3 correction technically could be finished with the latest dip below 1535

update: gold dip below 1526, this would favor a bearish picture. the silver triangle pattern now fully in play, expecting silver to find support between 35.5-36 then move back to 37-38 (again unless silver can break above 38.5) this is a bearish triangle that can target as low as 26-31

[ZenOps]

Commodities tanking. Awoooga!

Uh oh, yesterday was stocks, today is commodities. There is no safe place to put your money but ammunition...

[SilverRex]

basically the same bearish triangle chart I posted, expecting as wave E back towards 38s unless it can break above 38.5 I will reserve any bullish strength aside and quite possibly go short for targeting 27-31

update:triangle pattern invalidated with move under 35.4

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silverabcde.jpg

[SilverRex]

with silver diving under 35.4 this morning, the bearish triangle pattern may be dead. it would have been nice to expect a test under 30 as that would create an awesome buying area, none the less we just have to work with the charts once again.

I have come to agree with other EW experts that gold may still be in a bullish path towards exceed 1576+ and as such silver while be strongly compressed should spring forth and I have also revised it back into a cup and handle pattern as well, looking below, key support now lies at 34.8 as typical handle corrections should not exceed the 61% correction threshold or this could kill this pattern, and if the cnh breakout occurs beyond 38, it would target at least about 7 dollars that should give silver a nice push back towards 43-47 area (this is when gold sets a new record high top before a coming dull summer correction imo)

first for short term confirmation lets wait for silver to recapture above 36.5 and regain a footing

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silvercnh11.jpg

here is a look at the short term chart, to fulfill the cup and handle breakout we now must close above the 1-2-3 lines marked here. I will revise my original position with stop under 34.8 and will add a position each time it closes above the next line and will be targeting a breakout move towards 43-47

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver060311.jpg

[SilverRex]

Natgas is breaking up stronger each day. just when everyone writes it off, she decides to run. then again I have been waiting for this run for months. after suggesting silver support at 4.4, with price touching as high as 4.81, if it breaks above 4.9, it would move the next support to 4.74 and needs to remain above this to generate a even stronger rise we will now see if the 6.0+ target will be reached within two weeks.

[SilverRex]

update: gold 5 min looks corrective should be ready to move higher

silver is has broken out from first line. 1 down 2 more to go

[997TT]

Added BNK at $7.23 and RY under $55 this morning.

markets are kind of dicey right now but i see some value in both plays above.

anybody following or holding TRE?
watching it on teh pinks right now.... and its about to open trading on the TSX at 9:15MST (5 min from now).

see what happens to that pos company...lol

[bitteeinbit]

Yeah, just got home and I see it is making headlines and i saw the decline as it's one of the stocks i track. I always thought it was great and I've traded them many times in the past. Makes you think and wonder about similar drops which could happen anywhere. Scary shit right there, I feel for those who had a recent position.

[Gainsbarre]

Alright, I've been just a wee bit choked since the Muddy Waters report came out on midday Thursday as I've lost a pretty good chuck of money on TRE. I too was caught up in the impressive (yet believable) levels of earnings growth, financial statements, and projections by management for Sino Forest, which as we now know, may very well be entirely fraudulent. I'm on the road to recovery right now, as although it's a massive loss for the time being, it's just a blip in the grand scheme of things.

Here's a good summary of what's going on if you're not familiar with this.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/sino-forest-scrambles-to-defend-its-reputation/article2046252/singlepage/#articlecontent



Sino-Forest scrambles to defend its reputation
JACQUIE MCNISH, DAVID EBNER, PAUL WALDIE AND TIM KILADZE
From Saturday's Globe and Mail
Published Friday, Jun. 03, 2011 1:36PM EDT
Last updated Friday, Jun. 03, 2011 8:37PM EDT

It took just one report from a little-known short-seller to send the stock of one of Canada's biggest publicly traded forestry companies into a tailspin and its startled board of prominent directors scrambling for answers.

On Friday, the board of Toronto-listed Sino-Forest Corp., Sino-Forest Corp. (TRE-T5.23-9.23-63.83%) which includes Hong Kong magnate Simon Murray and former Southam Inc. CEO William Ardell, publicly warned investors to view with “extreme caution” a “shock jock” short-sellers report that accused the company of grossly exaggerating the value and scale of the core timber holdings it buys and sells in China.

Behind the scenes, however, one person close to the company described the directors as “rattled” by the report. The directors held an emergency board meeting Thursday and appointed a special committee of three independent directors, including Mr. Ardell, to review the claims. Sources said the board also agreed to hire an independent accounting firm to investigate the claims.

“The directors believe that this is a company of substance. They are shocked and they intend to take a hard look at these claims,” said the source.

Sino-Forest’s board is under intense pressure to contain the damage. In heavy Canadian trading on Friday, the company’s stock collapsed like a fallen tree, wiping out a total of $2.3-billion from the company’s total stock market valuation in one day. On the Toronto Stock Exchange, Sino-Forest closed at $5.23, a 64-per-cent drop from the previous day and a 79-per-cent drop from the company's 2011 peak valuation of $6.2-billion in March. The company has lost nearly $5-billion in market value in that span.

The stunning wipeout raises awkward questions for a company that was rated a “buy” by seven Bay Street analysts, backed by respected investors such as Wall Street’s John Paulson and a large cast of leading Bay Street investment banks including TD Securities and RBC. Its auditors are the global accounting firm Ernst & Young.

Sino-Forest is one of hundreds of Chinese companies that have gained entry to North American stock exchanges through a technique known as a reverse takeover of a dormant public company. While reverse takeovers have been a common practice, regulators and politicians in the United States have become concerned about the sharp influx of Chinese-led reverse takeovers. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently launched an investigation of U.S.-listed Chinese stock plays after several were accused of accounting irregularities and fraud.

Until this week, Sino-Forest was untouched by scandals that have tainted some of its smaller competitors. Last month an independent committee of directors at China Forestry revealed that the Hong Kong-listed company had falsified logging permits. Cathay Forest, which is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange, had its stock suspended in late January and the company is probing a variety of investments and contracts related to its timber assets.

Created in 1994 through a reverse takeover on the Alberta Stock Exchange, Sino-Forest's main business is buying and selling giant blocks of trees. It manages nine tree plantations in China and one in New Zealand. Sino-Forest is also involved in log trading and manufacturing of some wood products such as plywood and flooring.

“Let me say clearly that the allegations contained in this report are inaccurate and unfounded,” Sino-Forest chairman and chief executive Tak Yuen (Allen) Chan said in a statement Friday.

Mr. Chan, a trained sociologist from Hong Kong who started in business with Chinese ventures in the 1980s in everything from the hotels to clothing sectors, is the architect of the sprawling Sino-Forest enterprise.

Mr. Chan’s earlier businesses foundered in 1989 amid the chaos of Tiananmen Square, and he has described the stress from this time as so overwhelming that he became paralyzed. He learned to walk again after physiotherapy. Back on his feet, Mr. Chan turned his attention in 1993 to an emerging business in China that was fuelled by a construction boom. Partnering with Kai Kit Poon, a veteran government forestry engineer in China, Mr. Chan began investing in large tracts of trees.

Mr. Chan 's greatest achievement with his new venture was building a bridge to North American investors for his company. He created his company through a reverse takeover of his fledgling Hong Kong company with two dormant companies that came with a public listing. His early forays into the Canadian market allowed him to raise $5-million.

For a Hong Kong businessman whose English to this day is difficult to understand, his success in raising money from investors has been nothing short of remarkable. Despite volatile markets the company has been able to attract more than $1-billion for stock and debt investors in recent years.

One of Sino-Forest early backers was Simon Murray, the Hong Kong-based businessman famous for his stint with the French Foreign Legion and multitude of business interests which include managing billionaire Li Ka-Shing’s Hutchison Whampoa and serving as chairman of Switzerland-based Glencore. In 1999, a company controlled by Mr. Murray provided Sino-Forest with $20-million in financing in return for an ownership position and a seat on the board. He has been a director ever since and been involved in several other deals with Sino-Forest, including co-owning Greenheart Resources, which owns forests in Suriname.

Sino-Forest has attracted investors with its steady revenue and profit growth.

Sino-Forest has scored consistent and steady success throughout its history, even through difficult economic periods. A decade ago, revenue rose like clockwork, $126-million in 2000 to $137-million in 2001 and $201-million in 2002. In the past several years, as the global recession ravaged many industries, and resources particularly so, Sino-Forest did not falter and growth spectacularly accelerated. Revenue of $896-million and profit of $229-million in 2008 roughly doubled to $1.9-billion of revenue and $395-million of profit in 2010. The company, which reports more than $1-billion of cash on its books, does not pay a dividend and does not plan to pay one because it wants to use the money to fund additional growth.

Mr. Chan holds 6.58 million shares of Sino-Forest and the only recorded disposal of stock in the past several years was the sale of 182,000 shares in June, 2010. Mr. Poon, nominally president of Sino-Forest but essentially retired, sold most of his 2 million shares in 2008 and currently owns about 100,000. The 2008 sale of stock was for “personal reasons,” a company spokeswoman said.



So, it's clearly a case of this being a multi-million dollar fraud (Muddy Waters is full of shit) or a multi-BILLION dollar fraud that will eclipse the BRE-X debacle (Sino-Forest is nothing but a ponzi scheme). If it's the former, then it's pretty damn shocking that a false report from a (previously) obscure analyst could obliterate over C$3 billion in market value in under 2 days. I also wonder of the fate of the authors of this report, given the swift and harsh punishments that China hands out to white collar crime. I've never come across a analyst report as scathing as this one, which is all the more disconcerting given the fact that Muddy Waters admits right up front that they stand to benefit financially from the stock price plunging to it's target of under $1/share. However, the research from Muddy Waters is extensive, with dozens of supporting documents. They've also exposed two other fraudulent Chinese companies in the past six months (RINO and CCME) -- both stocks are now worth a fraction (<10%) of what they were before Muddy Waters coverage, with the resignation of key executives at each, restatements of financials, and demotions from the NASDAQ onto Pink Sheets.

If Sino Forest is in fact a massive fraud (which to be honest, is what I'm strongly leaning towards) this raises a number of grave concerns -- Ernst and Young signed off on all of Sino-Forest's financials giving them a clean bill of health (will they be soon meeting the same fate that Arthur Andersen did)? How could such a massive fraud be perpetrated by a company that was listed on the TSX for over 15 years (what the hell are the exchange regulators doing)? How many more companies like this are out there (how will publicly listed Chinese companies be perceived after all of this)? Is this opening the floodgates for research firms to take massive short positions in stock and then issuing a similarly worded report so that they can pocket millions in the subsequent selloff? How will all of this affect market volatility and confidence in TSX investors?



tl;dr
http://cdn.static.ovimg.com/episode/397864.jpg
Timber!! The tree represents Sino Forest, and Lumpy represents Muddy Waters (the research firm, not the legendary bluesman).

[bitteeinbit]

So have you sold? What I don't understand is that people who write this off or who invest MILLIONS of dollars into a company don't go out and inspect it. It's one thing to look at the papers, it's another to go out in the field, look at the factories, verify with the gov. that the company owns X amount of land etc.

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
So have you sold? What I don't understand is that people who write this off or who invest MILLIONS of dollars into a company don't go out and inspect it. It's one thing to look at the papers, it's another to go out in the field, look at the factories, verify with the gov. that the company owns X amount of land etc.

Ya I had to bail asap on Friday morning @ $6.11 after getting in with a covered call barely a week earlier. I wanted to sell on Thursday but it was of course halted very shortly after the Muddy Waters report came out.

For the massive institutional investors who own a significant % of the outstanding shares (e.g. John Paulson), you'd THINK they'd be going over the company with a fine tooth comb -- I can't imagine Sino Forest management not welcoming them with open arms (a noteworthy money manager such as Paulson) who's willing to sink hundreds of millions of dollars in their company. Of course, for individual investors like you and me it's tough (if not outright impossible) to get access to thoroughly inspect facilities yourself (e.g. just because I am a Suncor shareholder doesn't mean that I can wander onto the Millennium project site or get a meeting with Rick George to start asking questions). I have to rely on the audited financial statements, putting my trust in the auditors who have sign off on them. I don't think Paulson has made any public statements regarding Sino Forest, but it would be very interesting to hear what his due diligence was on the company.

My intuition told me that something was horribly wrong when the CEO make what (in my view) was a peculiar announcement the day after I bought the stock...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?date=20110525&archive=cnw&slug=C7225



Sino-Forest On Track With Operations And First Quarter Reporting; Not Aware Of Any Reason For Share Price Decline
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
TORONTO, May 25, 2011 /CNW/ - Sino-Forest Corporation ("Sino-Forest") (TSX:TRE), a leading, commercial forest plantation operator in China, announced today that it is on track with achieving its operating goals and reporting its first-quarter 2011 results on time as previously announced.

Sino-Forest Chairman and CEO, Allen Chan, said, "Our management team is not aware of any operating or financial matters that should cause investors any concern about our first quarter results to be released on June 14, 2011. We have a 16-year track record of outstanding operating and financial performance and our corporate governance and transparency is of the highest standards. We see no reason justifying the company's recent share price decline.


Does Allen Chan sound honest to you? He reminds me of the guy who ends every second sentence with the words "trust me". That makes him less trustworthy, in my view. That's how I read this unusual press release.

To my misfortune, I decided to hold until the earnings announcement, as I wrote a covered call that expired on June 18. I told myself I'd bail on the week of June 20, as I didn't think that this would be a long term holding for me anymore.

On May 30, Sino Forest heavily promoted their so-called "culture of accountability" at their annual meeting in Toronto and seem to boast about this in their press releases (almost too much imo) where they go on about how trustworthy they are. If they are a legitimate business, why would they need to emphasize these points so much? The CEO's response on Friday to the Muddy Waters report contained little to no evidence to refute the very serious allegations, as Chan continues to try and reassure investors. It included the obligatory "trust us! we're honest!" rhetoric

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?date=20110603&archive=cnw&slug=C2486



Allen Chan, Chairman and CEO of Sino-Forest commented: "We are committed to a high level of corporate governance and stand by the integrity of our company, our 16-year operational track record and our financial statements. Our company has continuously retained the services of internationally recognized law firms, auditors and expert consultants from Canada, the US, Hong Kong and mainland China."


:rolleyes: :bullshit: :bullshit: ...just show us the hard evidence to refute these allegations already.

I have a feeling that Chan unloaded all of his holdings on Thursday and Friday and is now looking for a place to hide.

[bitteeinbit]

Tough break. I wih you good luck and hope you recover some lost money in other investments. I'm still in CLQ and waiting out on the classaction. Still unsure whether I should sell it and move on (and hope the lawsuit works out) or wait it out and hope that it moves up in the coming 2 years as production starts...

[SilverRex]

as previously suggested, silver got over the 1st hurdle and is now in a 5 wave sequence targeting 37.5-37.7 this week, I would expect a bigger correction to take hold once it moves higher and complete this initial 5 waves up, high level breakout for the potential cnh pattern for a target price to 45-47 requires silver to capture above 38.6

silver must remain above 36.2 if we are to reach higher into the mid 37


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver060611.jpg

[SilverRex]

update: gold at 1552 is a key area, retesting the upper base channel once again as well as the 78% fibo of the entire 1576-1460 dip, we either turn down from here or a punch thru would be even more bullish

[ExtraSlow]

Little late with this comment, but I had been following TRE for a few months, with a plan to get in. Hadn't bought, but when it dropped on Friday, I couldn't resist. Considering the uncertaintly, I wasn't wiling to make a big bet, but I did buy a few at $5.25 on friday.

The news today isn't conclusive yet, but I'm betting we'll see at least $10 this week for that stock.

[in*10*se]

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/MW_TRE_060211.pdf

[Akumaz]

i also bought some on saturday, at 6$, i almost shit my self as is went down even below 5$, but sold it this morning at 8.23. I really dont know who to believe at this point, not really willing to extend my risk anymore. Interesting to see where it goes from here though, they will be guilty until proven innocent

[Gainsbarre]

If TRE is so legit, the CEO and other execs ought to be snapping up all the stock that they can get their hands on, and maybe even take the company private. After all, Chan keeps mentioning the over $1 billion that the firm has on hand, so why not buyback some shares?

That would be quite the scenario if Muddy Waters and Sino Forest were in fact in cahoots, and this was all a rouse to drive the market cap of TRE down so that the company could be taken private at a fraction of its true value. No I don't actually believe this, but it would be quite the bombshell if it were true :rofl:

[ExtraSlow]

TRE has publicly stated that they will not be buying back shares and that thier directors are prohibited from buying shares for a certain period.

[SilverRex]

gold has finally turned down from 1552 and currently as long as 1544 holds it still has a shot at breaking out and if so will target 1565 immediately, failure to hold above 1544 would re-open 1530s, I will again use 1526 as make or break for gold's current bullish phase.

[Akumaz]

TRE is looking real bad, dropping to fridays figures, glad i sold it

[bitteeinbit]

Damn, what happened today? A lot of stocks crashed in the afternoon.

[SilverRex]

silver moved beautifully to the expected 37.5 and is now holding under the 2nd over head trendline, the real breakout will occur if we can get above 38.5 for a target price of 45.5+

make or break now lies with the rising neckline near 35.5 which would really be 35.8 by the time price do happen to fall.

on a higher level chart the same suggested triangle consolidation can still be spotted and will converge for a breakout either way so a real trend will emerge shortly after

short term, if silver can remain above 36.89 I suspect silver is still trying to finish a mini 5 waves of .V potentially giving us a breakout #2 today, else we would easily retest the mid 36s or even lower depending on the performance of the USDX

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver060711-1.jpg

as the dollar index shows, if you remember my last dollar chart which was a while ago I expected the dollar to fall back to 73s and we basically achieved that target, however as the general rule goes, the trend is your friend until it bends, so until it breaks out dollar will remain weak but I do suspect it would reverse course and fill a gap in the mid 75s in coming weaks

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar060711.jpg

[Feruk]

Any thoughts on trying to cash in on TRE by buying other Chinese stocks? I was looking at MGO (Migao) which does potash. They had a drop from of ~$1 the day all this TRE stuff went down with no solid reasoning behind it that I can find (minus TRE thing). Earnings report due out next Wednesday.

[ExtraSlow]

This TRE shit will wiegh on other chinese stocks for a while. Let's face it, the transparency just isnt there for most of these stocks, and they will get lumped together.

As for my TRE investment, I didn't sell yesterday, and I'm looking pretty foolish now. I think yesterday morning was the "dead cat bounce" and now we're headed significantly lower for a while, maybe forever. Fuck. :eek:

[SilverRex]

silver has come back to 36s area after unable to sustain the suggested 36.89 support, using gold as guide, we need gold to now reclaim above 1541 to turn the latest sell off this morning as a correction.

This would give silver a chance to break the 37.5 area (#2 line) and to test the #3 area for the big breakout.

update: gold currently at a key support 1536, hoping this hold but if it doesnt, next most likely support will be at 1533-1534

look for confirmation of gold getting back above 1541 and if it does we may be on path for a higher high in turn give us the next breakout target for silver

update: gold made a double bottom at 1536, now back above 1541 looking very good if the bullish count sticks gold is now ready for wave 3 of iii of III which should be powerful enough to break the 1576 high

[Akumaz]

is there anyone still in TRE? on a side note, what r some current short term investments that are favorable, other than gold n silver

[ExtraSlow]

I'm hanging in on TRE, I figure we've got two options, 1) it'll go to near zero or 2) it'll rebound back up above $10.

I hold no hope of a rebound in the next couple days. I suspect it'll take weeks for the company to bring forward enough evidence to convince a spooked marketplace, if such evidence even exisits.

I can afford to lose what I invested, so I'm hanging in.

[ExtraSlow]

Muddy Waters looks so shady to me, I can't belive this is legal. Muddy Water pre-marketed report to hedge funds (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-07/muddy-waters-pre-marketed-sino-forest-report-to-hedge-funds-dundee-says.html)

Anyway, I was asked about recomendations for other profitable short stocks. My current favourite is FRC. Wildly profitable, and they stand to do very well off the increased number of horizontal wells being drilled in Canada this year. Oil and gas related companies almost always drop in the summer, so it may be worth waiting for a lower entry point. Although if you want too long . . .

I keep hearing rumours of a takeover, which i have to think would pay at least a 20% premium. I have a small position, which I'm considering increasing.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by e36bmw///


why not write a call option???
Such arbitrage opportunity

the call premium is more than the stock price for January 2012!

Some of these contracts have little/no volume, so the last value the option traded and can be deceptiive (look at the bid instead). I don't see any arbitrage opportunities here...

TRE – Sino-Forest Corporation Last update: June 7, 2011, 19:59 Montréal time - (DATA 15 MINUTES DELAYED)
Calls
Month / Strike Bid Ask Last Impl. Vol. Vol.
+ 12 JA 3.000 2.350 4.450 5.400 342.07 0
+ 12 JA 4.000 1.750 3.900 6.150 264.38 0
+ 12 JA 5.000 1.500 2.550 2.000 192.85 7
+ 12 JA 6.000 1.250 3.300 4.900 232.51 0
+ 12 JA 7.000 0.900 3.050 1.100 N/Av 4
+ 12 JA 8.000 0.850 1.900 1.600 N/Av 32
+ 12 JA 9.000 0.500 2.800 4.200 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 10.000 0.400 2.750 4.100 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 11.000 0.250 2.600 3.950 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 12.000 0.750 1.200 2.900 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 13.000 0.150 2.400 3.700 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 14.000 0.150 2.200 3.500 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 15.000 0.300 2.100 3.350 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 16.000 0.050 1.050 3.150 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 17.000 0.000 1.750 2.900 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 18.000 0.000 1.400 2.700 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 19.000 0.000 1.450 2.500 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 20.000 0.000 1.300 2.250 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 21.000 0.000 1.200 2.050 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 22.000 0.000 1.100 1.850 N/Av 0
+ 12 JA 23.000 0.040 0.850 1.650 N/Av 0


The marketing of the Muddy Waters report to hedge funds would help to explain why such a massive short position in TRE was built up just before the report went public.

I wouldn't be surprised if TRE is delisted from the TSX very soon (maybe next week even) until this matter is resolved. Waiting to see the second Muddy Waters report on Sino Forest.

[SilverRex]

looks like gold did test 1533 after all, no matter, it will just be an extended correction.

looking at silver this morning, as from my previous charting, silver clearly pushed off the #2 over head resistance trend line and is still very much in a wave ii correction. if silver is to breakout soon, I expect it should not break below 36. As well another small cup and handle pattern is spotted with would fit nicely for the next move higher.

confirmation this morning requires silver to re-capture 36.5 before buyers jump in. And silver critical area now lies at 35.76 to keep the shorts away.

it may depend heavily on how the dollar index plays out as it remains in its declining trend channel now very close to the upper end. if dollar pushes beyond 74, it could spell disaster for metals and it could very well tell us that the top for the summer is in and we are prepare to see a prolonged correction instead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver060811.jpg

[997TT]

anybody taking positions today? ttracking a few that are looking interesting

GCE at 7.54
GPR 2.50
TCK.B 46.7
ABX 43.2

a few stocks are looking interesting.... that is until they go lower. lol

[Akumaz]

TRE is rocking back up, lucky for those if any, that bought into it this morning(open). almost 30% gain as of now.

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by 997TT
anybody taking positions today? ttracking a few that are looking interesting

GCE at 7.54
GPR 2.50
TCK.B 46.7
ABX 43.2

a few stocks are looking interesting.... that is until they go lower. lol
I added to my PD position today, but my timing was a bit off and it's now below the 50ma which has me slightly worried. I'll have to watch it carefully the next few days. I also had a buy order on ENB which was not filled (just barely). I'm hoping it gets filled tomorrow or the day after.

I wouldn't touch GPR. I recently got out of it with a big loss as the downtrend seems neverending. I would hold out till after summer is gone. then again, now that I'm out, it'll probably go back up! TKB is probably a good buy for the long-haul (a few months) and I don't know much about GCE or ABX as I've never traded them. An interesting buy at this level might be ORT.A.

[997TT]

ya, i've been following ORT.A
buddy of mine has flipped it 3x the past week.

i'm just watching for now.

[997TT]

feel like pissing money away...just picked up 4k of TRE at $5.54 with a stop loss at $5.

lol....add the $2k loss to my list of capital losses.

[SilverRex]

silver took out #2 line and ready to test the final one before a big breakout at 38.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver060911.jpg

[SilverRex]

Natgas also at final resistance area of 4.9x, if we close above this on the weekly chart, it could ignite a immediate breakout move towards 6.00 which has always been my target. Even if you ignore the counts, the inverted head and shoulder is obvious as we had our neckline breakout this week which still targets 6.00

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/nastgas060911.jpg

[dimi]

I've been following the ruckus in the China space for a while now. With amount of fraud uncovered and all of the allegations its really changed the landscape of investing in China. You really have to go to extreme lengths with your due diligence.

I didn't bet any money. I wish I had, even though after one of these pieces gets release it becomes insanely expensive to borrow shares to short or buy puts. I guess I'll just take some lessons for now. A few of the things that I can generalize on, just thinking out loud:

1. Short sellers have a place in the market.
Short sellers of these companies (specifically RTOs) have as of recent been called: corrupt, liars, deceitful, crooks etc. The actions towards the authors that write these "hit-pieces" have been even more scathing. Libel, baseless lawsuits, death threats etc. But if it wasn't for the short sellers of these companies who should be in charge of uncovering these frauds? If there is no monetary motive, would someone volunteer their time to investigate? Oh yes the SEC... then every one of these frauds would escalate to epic proportions.

2. In China you can bribe anyone.
Bankers, Lawyers, Accountants, Auditors. You cannot trust any audited financial statements. A lot of Big4 auditors have been the ones that signed off on these audits in the first place, subsequently resigning after one of these "hit-pieces" comes out. I think the Big4 in China can’t really be compared to the Big4 in the US. A lot of these companies that went under had HUGE cash balances on their B/S and were making close to no investment income. Bankers were paid off to provide a confirmation of the cash balances. A lot of people should have been asking themselves, "Why are these people issuing more shares when they have so much cash?"

3. Pay close attention to the corporate structure.
A lot of these RTOs used some very complex subsidiary/VIE structures to get around the foreign investment restrictions in China. A lot of these structures had clauses that limited or excluded shareholders from owning the actual company under which all of the assets were held. So essentially you were buying a stock of a shell company that represented the operations of another company that you had no claim on. Also you have to watch for arms length transactions. A lot of the money in these shells was siphoned out by the "CEO buying his son's gas station at 500% over fair value."

4. As posters above mentioned, if you are on the management team and you're innocent, provide proof against the allegations (not PR and investor relations bullshit), YESTERDAY.
People are starting to see right through these phony lawsuits, "certificate dividends contingent on lawsuit settlement", share repurchases, or some grand PR speeches about company accountability. Provide investors with facts refuting the allegations. Unfortunately the short seller "hit-piece" authors usually have a lot of evidence to substantiate their claims, they don't just attack random companies. It is also very hard to argue with the track record of "hit piece" authors such as Muddy Waters, Citron research, Geoinvesting, "Alfred Little". I mean they have brought down (>50% market cap) every single one of the companies that they have issued research on. Always check disclosures of interests and sources of information.


I have to say though I am stunned that MW would go after such a huge company such as TRE. There are a lot of very large investors behind TRE that could bury those guys alive. The front running of the research piece also seems a bit sketchy, although not illegal. Remember though that the guy who claimed the front running would not share his sources and he is also the same guy that helped TRE sell shares in 2009 according to Bloomberg, so I wouldn’t trust him either. However if you want to take on such a large company, I guess you have to prime the market a bit before the bang.

I think at around $4-5 the company is a bit oversold as I truly cannot phathom $19 out of the $20 per share to be fraudulent as MW claims. How in the FUCK you get away with a 95% shell company trading at a market cap of 4 billion is beyond me.

Great theatre though!

[SilverRex]

I am still cheering for gold to make a new high and silver to hit 45, however it can quickly turn bearish, so I offer this alt count and if silver breaks below 36 it can open up 27-31 quickly,

the 38.5 overhead still stands and must be taken out to have any chance to retesting 45.5+

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silverbear.jpg

[SilverRex]

to add to silver's bearish count lets look at gold on the weekly chart.

a perfect trend channel, it would be logical to suggest that unless gold can quickly breakout (over 1562, silver over 38.5)

each passing moment favors the bearish view.

notice how gold when ever it closes below the 10 EMA (circled black) it has retested the bottom of the channel, currently our 10 EMA on the weekly is at 1508, as well a rising widening wedge which is bearish also points to 1508 coincident?

if these bear signals are triggered, it would force another sell off back to the 1400 zone.

which would present a better buy opportunity. However keep in mind, below 1400 would seriously produce further unwinding of metals and it is never a question of if but when a much larger correction (like 2008) will occur given us a multi month or multi year retest of the now all time important support at 1000 gold.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061011-1.jpg

[SilverRex]

also the GSR ratio might be onto a wave C runup towards 50 which would fit nicely to the 1400 gold and 28 silver model. then a final 5th wave down to under 30 leading us to a 2012 peak.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gsr061011.jpg

and gold just broke the 1537 h&s neckline which could suggest it will go after 1510, trading on thin ice, bear view just grew much stronger today

[997TT]

anybody holding or willing to touch UUU?

$2.72 looks awfully cheap...not saying it can't go lower but thinking of a 1/3 position here.

or wait to $2.50? lol

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by 997TT
anybody holding or willing to touch UUU?

$2.72 looks awfully cheap...not saying it can't go lower but thinking of a 1/3 position here.

or wait to $2.50? lol

for a small bounce maybe, the 3.32 support was broken, so it is now in full sell off mode. which means it will go lower much lower possibly to the 78% fibo of the 0.49-7.02 rise at 1.91

[997TT]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit

I added to my PD position today, but my timing was a bit off and it's now below the 50ma which has me slightly worried. I'll have to watch it carefully the next few days. I also had a buy order on ENB which was not filled (just barely). I'm hoping it gets filled tomorrow or the day after.

I wouldn't touch GPR. I recently got out of it with a big loss as the downtrend seems neverending. I would hold out till after summer is gone. then again, now that I'm out, it'll probably go back up! TKB is probably a good buy for the long-haul (a few months) and I don't know much about GCE or ABX as I've never traded them. An interesting buy at this level might be ORT.A.

Still a fan of PD? i was waiting for mid $13's for an entry and now its there. Prob take a position here and see what happens.

[SilverRex]

we are well into June and the mid June turn date is upon us, as I have suggested early in the year its time to stay away from stocks for a few months.

expecting dji to at least hit 11000 and tsx back down to 12500

oil on the other hand is also struggling, if it breaks below 98, it would be open a chance to test 85-92 in coming weeks.

[in*10*se]

don't know if anyone cares again:

latest things i'm into.

STO.TO (formly SPE.TO) new junior oil and gas spin off. Good time to get in early.

DTX.TO junior oil and gas. great land holdings and potential in the bakken area.

LNKD - linked in, i've bought good chunk of put options on it for Sept, @ $50.

[SilverRex]

here is my new count for gold if gold can take out 1508 , then it would setup nicely in a 3 wave fashion to 1400 then one more set of 5 waves into 2012

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/goldcount11.jpg

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by in*10*se
don't know if anyone cares again:



STO.TO (formly SPE.TO) new junior oil and gas spin off. Good time to get in early.





They have a webpage...I cant find much on the spinout....