Official Short-term Investments Thread

[in*10*se]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Spartan-Exploration-Ltd-ccn-3769808425.html?x=0&.v=1

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/01/spartanexploration-idUSL3E7F12CK20110401?feedType=RSS&feedName=rbssEnergyNews&rpc=43

[TheRealTimHorton]

WHY IS WTI/BRENT A $20 GAP!?!?!??!

SOMEONE CHECK THE SEASONALS ON THIS

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


They have a webpage?...I cant find much on the spinout....

[djayz]

Originally posted by 997TT
anybody holding or willing to touch UUU?

$2.72 looks awfully cheap...not saying it can't go lower but thinking of a 1/3 position here.

or wait to $2.50? lol

Forgot I bought a position of this at $3.50 now i'm left holding it! Long term this can hit the $5 mark no problem its just the painful wait that will probably kill me.

[SilverRex]

as suggested last week, metals are gearing up for another fall as key supports has been taken out, currently the feel is as if metals are mirroring another 2008 sell off

[Gainsbarre]

Sino Forest reports on Tuesday this week. I suspect that they'll keep lying through their teeth

http://www.financialpost.com/news/Earnings+call+moment+truth+Sino+Forest/4935150/story.html

This part of the article caught my eye



In a release last week, Sino-Forest said its counsel informed it that it is "precluded from purchasing stock in the current circumstances," but did not elaborate. Since the company has claimed there is nothing of substance to the Muddy Waters report, it is unclear why it would be "precluded" from such an act.


I was calling BS on that last week too. My understanding is that as Muddy Waters is operating at arms length from Sino Forest, Sino Forest executives are free to act upon the Muddy Waters report findings. If Allen Chan and other Sino Forest executives keep insisting that the company is legitimate and worth so much more, why haven't they been putting their money where their mouth is? Why haven't they been making large acquisitions of their own stock...why not take the company private?

[ExtraSlow]

Yeah, I'm confused about why they would be "precluded" from doing a corporate share buy-back. They have lots of cash on the books. They must have a fiduciary responsibility to keep up the share price.

My company is doing a buy back of around 10-15% of it's shares as a way of using up cash. Although not under these odd circumstances.

Actually, speaking of fiduciary duty, I'm starting to worry about thier story of not revealing thier buyers. Even if it's true that it would hurt thier competitiveness, eventually, the need to reassure thier investors overrides all other concerns.

[dawerks]

Have not made a trade since April, but did get stopped out on alot of stuff.

It's been a nice break and a good time to get perspective. Usually I would chalk this as the June doldrums but something else is stirrring.

Greece, QE2?-QE3, oil price technical drop. Don't know, happy to be in cash and I'm not buying a thing until Aug-Sep.

I agree with Silverex, this 'feels' like 2008 except more people are pre-worried whereas 2008 it just happened (no real precursor).

[ZenOps]

Silver tanking, gold tanking, oil tanker.

Early sign of a market crash? Greece downgrade to CCC is rough.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by dawerks
whereas 2008 it just happened (no real precursor).

Anyone who paid attention to credit markets and debt issuance could see it coming. Fucken started mid 2007 lol... watching the stock tickers alone nobody will know anything

(at that time I wasn't paying attention to markets at all so I'm not one of those people haha)

[dawerks]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton


Anyone who paid attention to credit markets and debt issuance could see it coming. Fucken started mid 2007 lol... watching the stock tickers alone nobody will know anything

(at that time I wasn't paying attention to markets at all so I'm not one of those people haha)

I guess I was referring to the dramatic stock drop and not the precise timing of it.

Nothing predicated the 800 point drops on the Dow or the totally shocking drop to around mid 6K on the Dow. I still shake my head.

The tech-wreck of 2001 was not a shocker to me. It was plain as the nose on my face that those valuations wouldn't last. I was even shorting because it seemed so obvious at the time.

I think people are 'expecting' the market to tank again, and simply because people are expecting it to happen, it won't. There's way too much cash on the sidelines just hoping for that to happen that it just can't.

(I'm a bull so don't take my overstatement as anything except my natural bullishness!)

[ZenOps]

On a slightly off note...

Kitco Canada office was raided by police. Kitco of course being a major physical silver and gold bullion dealer for Canada.

Alleged $150 million in tax evasion... But only alleged, no proof - but they expect to find proof.

Yeah, the US is going back to a gold standard (Utah being first) from the gold confiscation of 1933. Canada is doing the exact opposite, I knew that Harper was a gold digger.

Take the real money out of the hands of the people and anyone who lets people use metals as money. And then you have Ron Paul and the US Tea Party which seems hellbent on putting gold back into the hands of the people.

Seems like a conspiracy? Maybe Harper intends to give all the gold to the US? The current Canadian admin is giving away free lumber and nickel too.

[SilverRex]

Liquidity is leaving the marketplace, as the mid june turn day as officially arrived. Until things drastically change, the market has entered a phase where it can be quite volatile. Its best to hold onto some cash and wait for better opportunities.

looking at metals, it is currently in sell off mode, the question is where it will land.

looking at gold, my previous chart suggest it remains in a rising trend channel and could easily target the low of 1400-1444 as the next stop. falling below this would have huge implication on further weakness

and for silver, the last time 32-33 area provided the much need quick bounce as it was a back test from a phase transition breakout as well as meeting a rising neckline.

we are at that neckline once again, my feel is silver should find its way in the buy zone area of between 26-31, this area would offer alot of buying and could very well be the bottom. At the same time, if we are to mirror a 2008 panic and liquidation, it could have a shot at briefly retest the previous major high near 21. So the idea is, if anyone ever sees silver near 22 it will be a screaming buy (similar to when silver hit 8 dollars) or gold retest 700 after peaking at 1000. Get the idea? these major top generally provide the best support and could last years if not generation.

Over all the summer correction for metals are in full force. this could very well mark the last correction before the final run during winter and into 2012. Once she peaks, metals could easily enter a multi year correction lasting anywhere from 4-10 years. So trade accordingly

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver061411.jpg

[SilverRex]

for oil, to remain bulllish I suggested that 98 must hold, with it violating this support it has carried over to a steeper correction. A new count suggest oil is now tracing out a previous wave .iii/.iv range that could either be between 87-92 (possible low here) or a more severe correction under the 87 area.

Currently I do not want to entertain a double dip recession, as it could be a very bad thing for the economy so I expect the current down move for all market to be correctional in nature.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061411.jpg

[SilverRex]

here is an update on the dollar, since the dollar made a counter move back towards near 77, it has been expected it would move back down towards 73 after falling out of a widening wedge, and now the expectation is for the dollar to push slightly higher for a wave 'C', notice for the next few months the dollar will be showing some strength hence the market/metals are all entering their correctional phase. Once the dollar completes its counter trend rally and begins to move towards a new multi year low, that is when metals perhaps even energy garnering new heights.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar061411.jpg

of course there is always a flip side to each story. having the dollar move back above 78 would not be a good indication and could ring in a 2008 deflationary scare

[SilverRex]

Natgas did not achieve the weekly close above 4.9 to ignite a true breakout and thus it has been rejected right back down sharply.

Now we wait, natgas must reclaim above 4.80 to resume breakout status and to target 6.00+ otherwise I would watch the previous 4.4 support closely. Anything below 4.15 now would kill the current bullish momentum and very well revisit the mid to low 3s.

also the 4.8-4.9 neckline is a very large inverted h&s pattern on the weekly chart so I can see the resistance it holds. (similar to oil when it made bottom at 33 then crossed over the 45 neckline to ignite a bullish reversal and look where it is today.)

so watch the upper level closely, risk takers could buy here with stops under 4.4

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgas061411.jpg

[ExtraSlow]

I'm probably the only one watching this, but TRE put out its quarterly statements this morning. TRE - Quarterly statements and comments (http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=PR&date=20110614&id=13766619)
I find it disturbing that the market isn't being reassured. Given the number of large instituational investors that previously held this stock, it must have a lot of big money watching it. Clearly those people are still not convinced.

[997TT]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I'm probably the only one watching this, but TRE put out its quarterly statements this morning. TRE - Quarterly statements and comments (http://money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=PR&date=20110614&id=13766619)
I find it disturbing that the market isn't being reassured. Given the number of large instituational investors that previously held this stock, it much have a lot of big money watching it. Clearly those people are still not convinced.

I'm watching it. Lol. Traded it twice and am glued to my streamer at work.

[ExtraSlow]

There's been some excellent swings of more than 10% for a smart (lucky?) trader to make good gains on. High volume too, so no liquidity problem.
EDIT: I wonder if the IFRS charge in the quarterly statements will scare some people too. Maybe I should pick up a little more if it dips to $4.00.

[Gainsbarre]

:rofl: unlike their Q4-2010 financials, Sino Forest's Q1-2011 numbers have NOT been audited by E&Y (who I'm sure are trying to distance themselves from this whole mess). Why are we to believe any of the numbers in their release today?

Globe and Mail asks the same question about insiders being precluded from buying up shares. Kind of a nothing article actually, although the board of directors guy cracks me up when he claims that he's independent (sure...maybe according to the theories taught in business school). Moron was obviously asleep at the switch.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/why-sino-forest-directors-cant-buy-shares/article2060090/

Muddy Waters (unsurprisingly) isn't at all impressed with today's conference call

http://www.muddywatersresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/MW_TRE_Q12011_Call_Reaction.pdf

[997TT]

TRE under $4.00 now.

3.93x3.94 as i type this.

[Gainsbarre]

Originally posted by 997TT
TRE under $4.00 now.

3.93x3.94 as i type this.

Closed at $3.36, down 33% on the day.

As I was reading somehwere else, the company ought to be renamed "See-no Forest"

[SilverRex]

gold looks like it is trying to back test the broken neckline, unless it can quickly get back above 1531, the over all trend remains down and initial target should land us towards 1400-1444, 1400 divided by the potential to be GSR ratio of 50 would give us silver at 28 dollars. Wont that be the ideal place to bottom out this summer.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold061411.jpg

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by Gainsbarre
:rofl: unlike their Q4-2010 financials, Sino Forest's Q1-2011 numbers have NOT been audited by E&Y (who I'm sure are trying to distance themselves from this whole mess). Why are we to believe any of the numbers in their release today?



as an fyi:

only year end numbers (ie. Q4 - YTD) are audited.

like every other single company on this planet, quarters (Q1, Q2, Q3) are not audited. They are 'reviewed' and numbers are only reviewed to ensure that they are 'plausible'. (edited)

[TheRealTimHorton]

SR I think you would see your charts more clearly if you simply drew for [relative] hi/lo penetration. Does me wonders.

[tenth]

Originally posted by in*10*se


as an fyi:

only year end numbers (ie. Q4 - YTD) are audited.

like every other single company on this planet, quarters (Q1, Q2, Q3) are not audited. They are 'reviewed' and numbers are only reviewed to ensure that they are 'reasonable'.
Plausible. Audits are done to reasonability. Also, some TSX filers get away with "reads" instead of reviews for quarters, which does not express any opinion on the financials.

[SilverRex]

as previously suggested, gold has successfully backtest ed the previous broken neckline and is selling off fast.

to reversal trend gold needs to break above 1541 otherwise target remains in the low 1400

[SilverRex]

looks like oil is moving down as planned, that should weakend the TSX further,

I have my eyes set for TSX to at least retest the 11500-12000 area which would be a min reset.

however 11000 would be even better.

[ZenOps]

The markets are all looking bearish to me.

Euro zone looks like its in trouble.

Fiat currencies are fluctuating a lot more than normal.

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by 997TT


Still a fan of PD? i was waiting for mid $13's for an entry and now its there. Prob take a position here and see what happens.
It was my first time trading it. But yesterday I had some good and bad luck. Since it slid under the 50ma, I decided to put a sell order at 12.96$. Unfortunately, it hit that point (lowest of the day) before rebounding! That's the problem with me not being able to see trades during the day anymore. But on a positive note, I put a bid to buy ORT at 2.95$ which ended up being the low of the day on a 10% gain! It was just a tony addition to my position but I guess it compensates a little with my sell order being triggered with PD. I think a lot of stocks are sliding because the whole index is down, PD included. But I don't mind it selling off because it broke past what I considered resistance. Might rebound though, GPR would have been a good buy after all, LOL. I'm staying away from it though. I added a bitmore to ENB but it's down today...

[SilverRex]

here is a detail look at the current GSR ratio (gold silver ratio) as you can see it has completed 5 waves for a wave A in a correctional counter trend, recently it broke out of a 5 waves consolidation which suggest we GSR should move back to 49-54

that is why I expect metals to offer at least one more dip to lower lows in weeks ahead.

once we reach our GSR target, the fun may begin as it would be ready to drop into a final wave V giving us a reach to the infamous 15-20 ratio that is when one needs to be holding silver as it could easily triple or quadruple in price as we cross over into 2012 this winter.

yes I am also aware of the bullish signal on comex, but typically the rule of thumb is, a bullish signal in the comex inventory may not produce immediate trend reversal (only as a divergence at this pt) and could easily take 1-2 months before the real trend formulates itself. But there will be no arguing if GSR should fall below 40 which is a generational key support and could very well signal the final rise in metals has begun.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gsr061611.jpg

[SilverRex]

for oil while it is currently bearish I must say it can easily remain in this rising channel since bottoming at 33, the next likely support will be around 92, however ideally I would like to see oil retest between 82-87 as a min so that it gives enough for correction to set the stages for much higher price

also if oil does hit 87 then rallies, the rising channel could easily be shifted a possible bear trap for technical traders

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061611.jpg

[SilverRex]

update: here we go GSR wants to breakout into sub wave .iii as gold is trying to break down

Natgas low could be in, require price to recapture above 4.8 then breakout resumption will be at hand for target 6.00+

unable to do this, it remains cautiously neutral at this point. failure under 4.4 would ring in new bearish views targeting the low 3s again

[in*10*se]

hm RIM down again. should have bought more puts. :(

[Hi-Psi]

Yeah I really wish I would have shorted the stock back 6-8 months ago, they're dying a slow and painful death.

I don't see anything saving them at this point.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
for oil, to remain bulllish I suggested that 98 must hold, with it violating this support it has carried over to a steeper correction. A new count suggest oil is now tracing out a previous wave .iii/.iv range that could either be between 87-92 (possible low here) or a more severe correction under the 87 area.

Currently I do not want to entertain a double dip recession, as it could be a very bad thing for the economy so I expect the current down move for all market to be correctional in nature.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil061411.jpg

oil is either at a bottom (of a trend channel rising since 33) and bounce or we are ready to retest 87, I prefer the latter

[dimi]

Originally posted by in*10*se
hm RIM down again. should have bought more puts. :(

:werd:

Good call on LNKD puts, that stock should be @ <$10, not $100.

[SilverRex]

TSX going for a bearish close on the week :) come on stay down

[e36bmw///]

nm

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by ZenOps
The markets are all looking bearish to me.

Euro zone looks like its in trouble.

Fiat currencies are fluctuating a lot more than normal.

The markets do appear bearish to me as well, but remember that summer is upon us, there are stats about this (especially in the Tharacks) but the markets hardly ever go up for these 5 months of the year. Also, as someone else pointed out: with everyone seemingly scared and expecting a second recession, it most likely won't happen but rather the smart buyers will be buying and accumulating in the coming months. As weird as it may sound, there are too many people "expecting" a recession for it to happen imo.

[ZenOps]

Whuhoh!

“We wanted to make you aware of some upcoming changes to FOREX.com’s product offering. As a result of the Dodd-Frank Act enacted by US Congress, a new regulation prohibiting US residents from trading over the counter precious metals, including gold and silver, will go into effect on Friday, July 15, 2011. In conjunction with this new regulation, FOREX.com must discontinue metals trading for US residents on Friday, July 15, 2011 at the close of trading at 5pm ET. As a result, all open metals positions must be closed by July 15, 2011 at 5pm ET. We encourage you to wind down your trading activity in these products over the next month in anticipation of the new rule, as any open XAU or XAG positions that remain open prior to July 15, 2011 at approximately 5:00 pm ET will be automatically liquidated."

Actually it is old news, they gave this notice 60 days ago. It affects anyone who has less than $10million US in paper gold holdings that they must sell by July 15th.

It is a forced sell, but I don't know how the people in the $1million to $10 million range are reacting to this. Gold acts in strange ways when you try to push out millionaires, or are millionaires the new "little guys"?

[SilverRex]

metals last few days continue to look corrective, expectation a strong move to the downside is likely. Oil has also broken out of a rising channel and now looks ready to test next support at 87

with NG unable to re-capture above 4.7 and even broken down below 4.4 it has turned back into neutral. Until it can swing back above 4.7-4.8 it is best to stand aside as the market corrects NG could either become a safe haven play given it has produced a -11% in the last decade as the worse performing commodity there fore attracting value players or it can also nose dive along this market correction.

here is a quick look at the shifted rising channel which would put oil at 83-84 to be a very perfect low. while 87 is the next likely support it would be ideal to see oil retest the lower part of this channel

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062011.jpg

[997TT]

TRE pre mkt $2.65.

man this stock is a fkn gong show. Love the daytrade potential...but stops are a must on this pos company

[ExtraSlow]

Every time TRE posts a press release, they look shittier and shittier. I know I said I might buy more under $4, but maybe I really meant once they go under $1. :eek:

EDIT: Here is the most recent Globe and Mail story on Sino-forest (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/sino-forest-rebuts-article/article2067566/)

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by in*10*se
don't know if anyone cares again:

latest things i'm into.

STO.TO (formly SPE.TO) new junior oil and gas spin off. Good time to get in early.

DTX.TO junior oil and gas. great land holdings and potential in the bakken area.

LNKD - linked in, i've bought good chunk of put options on it for Sept, @ $50.

so sad... only thing that i'm doing swell on is the puts... :(

[SilverRex]

gold is now at a very critical juncture, the 1544 area needs to hold if we are to expect a new low under 1460.

what is interesting is that the latest run from 1510-1544 marked a 5 wave triangle right in the middle which still suggest this latest activity can be correctional if that is the case gold should top out today and begin the expected downleg immediately.

other wise closing the day above 1544 would be consider a breakout and especially above 1552

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062111.jpg

[Gainsbarre]

http://www2.macleans.ca/2011/06/21/sino-forest-or-sigh-no-forest/

Maybe beating a dead horse, but I'm STILL stuck on this point...



One also wonders why Sino-Forest is refusing to announce, or apparently even to contemplate, a buyback of its clobbered shares. The Financial Post’s David Pett pointed out last week how weird this is, especially considering the large cash hoard the company claims to be sitting on. “Sino-Forest said its counsel informed it that it is ‘precluded from purchasing stock in the current circumstances,’ but did not elaborate,” wrote Pett. “Since the company has claimed there is nothing of substance to the Muddy Waters report, it is unclear why it would be ‘precluded’ from such an act.”


And yeah, since there are two ways of pronouncing "sino" it's either "see no forest" or "sigh, no forest"...take your pick.

[SilverRex]

the GSR correctional also looks complete and ready to mark higher

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/GSR062111.jpg

[997TT]

Tre bidding $2.20 pre market...haha

2 min to open....

[ExtraSlow]

anyone have realtime quotes? what's TRE opening at?

[997TT]

opened at $2.35

daily range is 2.24 - 2.46

i bought 7k at $2.30

i've been doing 0.1 flips everyday... been stopped out twice but have made money overall. love this stock...haha

right now its 2.26 x 2.27 on 4.2MM shares

[bitteeinbit]

You are long on your flips? I feel like shorting this stock, I had an intuition to short it after the dead cat bounce two weeks ago but didn't, preferring to wait and see if any news releases would come out. This looks like it might go down to zero if nothing new comes out. I wouldn't want to hold overnight though, and I've never day-traded before. Looking at a one day chart now...

[Akumaz]

shorting would most likely be a good choice at this point, since the majority share holder, and the person who supported sino this entire way had just sold his stocks. Unfortunately, i am kind of stuck in here now, sold part at a lose hoping it would go back up, but looks like the remaining portion will just go to 0 haha. Unless of course, they some how are able to prove them selves to be innocent of the accused.

[997TT]

no, i'm not long on TRE at all...never held ovenight.

always sell before day's end.

got stopped out of my position... live to play another day

[bitteeinbit]

Well it was at minus 23.5% when I talked abou tshorting, it's now at minus 40%. I finally took a position after what I thought was a fake rally. And now it's just moving sideways above my sell point, lol. So much for chasing stocks... This is my third time shorting and I gotta say I prefer shorting on big highs versus chasing lows. Might be the lunch doldrums though, I'll wait out for a bit.

[997TT]

I'm tempted here... at $1.38
lol

[bitteeinbit]

Well made a quick buck. I'd been looking at the 5min daily ticker since I'd gone in just past 11am and had buy orders spread across. As it went down a bit around 11:50, I would cancel the buy orders I had (my original sell was at 1.51, and buy at 1.36). Simply because it moves too quickly. I then canceled a few (1.46, 1.44 etc). I went to the BATHROOM and came back and my 1.41 got triggered. Not bad even though it was a small position, 6% gain. Might be a good time 997, dunno. It dropped down, moved slightly back up now looks like it's headed south again. Rollercoaster stock right there (mostly on the downside though, lol. I like the "see no forest"" comments, haha).

[ExtraSlow]

look at the volume on TRE! I had a sell order in first thing this morning, but I made a typo, and it was rejected by my broker.
fml.

[bitteeinbit]

Wow, crazy volume indeed. I was stuck on the one day chart so never really bothered. Yeah it was around 2$ when I wanted to short but didn't pull the trigger till it hit 1.5$... I now wish I had not canceled that second buyback at 1.36 as I could have made some quick cash on the way up. But let's not dwell on that as it's risky enough as it is. Shorting is probably a good bet though, even for the long-term. But you never know, with all this volume there might be a 20% rebound tomorrow for all we know.

[Gainsbarre]

With TRE down another 40%, a delisting of its shares from the TSX seems imminent. How many more weeks?

[bitteeinbit]

Sold again a few mins ago @ 1.55$. Hovering just above for now...

[EDIT] Got out and wiped out most of my gains from the earlier trade :rofl: At least I didn't lose money overall...

[bitteeinbit]

Thanks to me, RIM is up 9%. I thought about getting in around 1pm but decided against it. The absence of my touch of turd has made it soar up. Had I dropped in I would have single-handedly brought it down by around 8%, lol.

In all seriousness, I've been home two days straight. ENB is treating me alright and I made exactly 4$ on TRE after my second sell blew my gains away (I checked, lol). I'm still mostly cash though. ORT has somewhat weird timing on it's financing.

[SilverRex]

as previously suggested the GSR shows a flag pattern that signals a higher ratio towards 50-54

even though gold has taken out 1544, all other markets including silver remains bearish which suggest this could be a bull trap

the GSR is also producing a cup and handle pattern as well with the typical handle 38% correction right at 42.19 (we hit 42.25) if breakout occurs it also points to 49+

doesnt matter how you slice the cake, all pointing to weaker metals ahead.

both cup pattern and revised triangle consolidation flag will fail if it drops below 41

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/GSRbowl.jpg

[SilverRex]

the breakout this morning on the dollar index was fake, however with a newly formed doublebottom, it appears we have another shot at renewed dollar strength, a positive divergence to price on stoch has been spotted.

hopefully this is what we need to see the anticipated drop in metals and perhaps oil too

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar062211b.jpg

[SilverRex]

as previously suggested, the positive divergence to price on the dollar index held true and we had the much needed dollar strength to cap metal prices. with gold falling 20 dollars by the time you read this, it will be the test if the breakout yesterday was real or trap.

looking at the dollar it now has two options, a breakout due to what appears to be a inverted H&S pointing to 78 or a smaller h&s pattern pointing right back to the 73s. Obviously if we are expect the much needed dive in metals then we need to favor the rising dollar strength in the next few days

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar062311.jpg

[SilverRex]

from my last chart on oil, I am still expecting a good bottom target at around 84-87 and currently it appears oil is working a sub wave 3 down, 95 was a previous support so now it is providing the much needed resistance. I will not expect oil to turn bullish until it can recapture above 98. In other words oil remains bearish

a rising dollar strength will only help the cause the achieve the low target

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062311.jpg

[SilverRex]

drop gold drop lol

[ZenOps]

Dollar rising. Gold down, Silver down, Platinum down, Palladium down, and again Oil really down.

$4 quick drop in oil is iii-interesting.

[SilverRex]

with gold dropping 39 dollar since the fake breakout yesterday, it has certainly resume our original assessment of reaching the low 1400 (rising channel)

the negative divergence spotted on the daily chart here is the warning sign.

on another note from my experience when there is a fake breakout and price went on to breaking the other side of the trendline usually indicate the real trend

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062311.jpg

[SilverRex]

oil dropping 25 dollar since peak this year better bring down our gas price as well, tired of paying 1.38 at the pump.

I Want to see TSX at 11xxx before I begin to move my all my RRSP back into stock

[997TT]

after getting ass raped 2 days ago on tRE ...then watching as it goes up 50% yesterday and too scared to buy ... i'm back in.

lol...man my timing is alway wrong. 5k at $2.94
see what happens

[ExtraSlow]

TRE - man what a gong show.
I sold out out $2.40 yesterday. While I was on the golf course, it goes to $3.00, then $3.15 this morning.

F me. If we see it solidly below $2, I will consider buying in. But for the most part, I can't take the stress.

[Akumaz]

dont worry, i am still holding a small portion after purchasing at 4$. hoping they r legit lol. I already sold most of it, and took a fair sized lose on this (sold at 2.8ish)

[997TT]

ya i'm off to golf this afternoon.... have a sell order in at $3.25

if it hits i'll be happy...if not i'm be holding overnight. (first time since i played this pos stock that'll i'll hold overnight)

[Feruk]

TRE is straight 50/50 gambling at this point. Scary stuff. I'll take my gamble on SLI instead.

[bitteeinbit]

Nice afternoon market recovery. Not too sad I didn't buy the dip but it makes me happy overall. Yeah TRE is nuts, I think it'll keep being a rollercoaster until some news releases come out (or don't come out for a prolonged period of time).

[SilverRex]

the dollar after making a strong move upwards has gone back into a correction which is quite similar to the last correction, however I expect it to be short in duration before it resumes the original trend which is up.

gold has either completed 5 waves impulsively to the downside or is currently still tracing out a sub wave iv then another wave down.

with GSR breaking out and have backtested the breakout, I expect market to begin falling again today if not monday.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar062411.jpg

[SilverRex]

the dollar has broken out as expected causing the metals to drop sharply.

I was expecting gold to complete its 5 waves either friday or this morning and it appears it has done exactly that. a counter wave could be seen today if gold is to break above 1502 and especially 1505. However over all trend remains bearish, 10/20 EMA on daily has officially crossed over and now will become a very critical resistance currently at 1526

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062711b.jpg

for now giving how gold has been trading nicely within this rising channel, it is only will provide us the obvious target for the latest gold correction landing possibly some where between 1400-1440

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062711.jpg

[SilverRex]

not much has changed for oil, as long as it reminds under 98, we should be able to see it hit our target low near 84, however the only thing to consider is that, giving the amount of time we took oil to go from 33-114 which I suspect is our 1st major wave I, we could see a multi-month 3-3-3 correction for oil. This would mean oil isnt going to achieve a new high any time soon.

also if you follow the conspiracy theorist and the agenda of the shadow gov, you will see 200 oil is only a matter of when not if.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062711.jpg

[SilverRex]

as previously suggested equities have taking a bearish turn and mid june couldnt have come at a better time to confirm this.

currently metals are bearish and so is stocks. Looking at TSX it remains under pressure and count points to further lows ahead. To break this bearish trend, it must re-capture above 13264.80, otherwise any rise this week will be consider corrective then a resumption to new lows ahead.

a good place for TSX to bottom out would be around 11500-12000, as for how much lower it can go, we'll just have to wait and see how the count unfolds.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/tsx062711.jpg

[SilverRex]

well GSR broken out, metals have falling under key support. What about the dollar you say?

well unfortunately dollar hasnt broke out yet, it has remained inside which possibly could unfold as a consolidation of its own.

but for now if dollar is bullish and on the verge of a breakout, I see the latest pull back as another sub sub wave correction which would give metals leg to produce the suggested counter rally. Then the shoe drops again

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar062711.jpg

[997TT]

Originally posted by Feruk
TRE is straight 50/50 gambling at this point. Scary stuff. I'll take my gamble on SLI instead.

Whats your cost on SLI? Are you adding more here at $2.05ish

[Feruk]

Originally posted by 997TT


Whats your cost on SLI? Are you adding more here at $2.05ish

$2.20 - first batch
$2.13 - second batch

I'm gonna wait a day or two to see if I can add more a little cheaper.

[997TT]

AAA getting destroyed over last few trading days.

down to $1.30 as i type this.

[SilverRex]

from my previous oil chart I suggested oil would complete its sub wave 3 which ended just under 90, I view the current as a wave (iv) correction and as long as it does not violate the previous wave (i) I expect oil to begin selling off again to under 90 (however anything can happen) and so if 98 does become violated, then it could quite possibly signal the correction for oil to be in place. and that the latest advance off 90 is our first wave up of the summer.

P.S stoch showing a possible negative divergence, with TSX also reaching near critical resistance and dollar index falling to critical support I wonder if this is a real trend reversal or a trap. Caution is advised.


http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil062911.jpg

[SilverRex]

as I mention if the latest reversal is a trap then we should see the dollar gain strength and quickly too. The dollar index has been working off divergences for each major turn and an obvious positive divergence spotted but will require dollar to break above 75 to confirm this. My expectation is, if the recent action is simply a trap dollar needs to quickly resurge above 75

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar062611.jpg

[SilverRex]

nothing new really to report on gold, higher level shows the low 1400 remains to be the ideal target to reach. but given latest reversal one could only compare to the last major correction as the 10/20 EMA remains bearish and will most likely become resistance for a final wave down. unless gold sustain above 1522 this view remains most probable.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold062911.jpg

[SilverRex]

I continue to view the TSX in correction mode unless it can close above 13300

for NG, since it never was able to close any week above 4.9, and even broke below a key support at 4.40 I have now expect we will see low 3s once again.

it may move a bit higher but current action is now corrective

will only resume bullish view if it can reclaim above 4.9 other wise expect to see the 3s soon

[SilverRex]

spotted a bullish positive divergence for oil, while my count still suggest I would like to see oil produce one more low under 90 which would be ideal for turning oil bullish for the rest of the year I have to say the key resistance is 98. if 98 is broken to the upside, then the bottom is in for oil either wise I will anticipate one more dive for oil and that may be it.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil070411.jpg

[SilverRex]

looking at the dollar index, from my previous suggested the alt view is in full order. with the dollar now holding within a much larger triangle consolidation pattern, with a confirmation move above 74.60, I expect dollar to move back into the high 75s, this last up leg may help us produce the much needed one last dive for oil and a bit more weakness for metals. And quite possibly that may be it for the corrections.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar070411.jpg

[Meback]

Lets hope thats the case silver rex. I m all in on HOD.TO.... either facepalm in the next coupe of days or a pimp for the month.

[997TT]

alright...outta TRE at $4.01. haha... what a pos company. glad i could make some money

[997TT]

Originally posted by 997TT
alright...outta TRE at $4.01. haha... what a pos company. glad i could make some money

right after i sell it pops to 4.75 (as i type this)
haha... oh well.

[Meback]

Originally posted by Meback
Lets hope thats the case silver rex. I m all in on HOD.TO.... either facepalm in the next coupe of days or a pimp for the month.

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[GQNammer]

Originally posted by 997TT


right after i sell it pops to 4.75 (as i type this)
haha... oh well.

4.88@9:21am

Shit's bananas

[TheRealTimHorton]

I wouldn't be short on Oil right now... It's breaking relative lows, not just testing them and falling again.

Besides, equities are gaining strength again and the correlation with oil is positive (currently).

[guessboi]

Haven't touch HOD, HND, etc in the past year.
I sold all my IFC stocks for a hefty profit today. :poosie:

[SilverRex]

Oil was only a few ticks away from 98, my previous notion suggest that if 98 does not hold, it could be a big signal that oil has truly bottomed at 90. But until I see this I expect a lower low ahead.

with oil beginning to fall since yesterday it will have to remain above a sharp rising neckline supported above 95.34 to have another shot at cracking 98. failure to do so could confirm a negative divergence on the 2 hour and ring in further weakness.

While the weakness would suggest our final wave .v is underway, I cannot rule out the possibility of an alt count that the rise from 90-98 is part of a new bullish wave .i structure, therefore and correction occurring now would be viewed as a wave .ii correction only

Bullish hints
-oil continues to consolidate between 95-98 and eventually breaking above 98 would signal wave .iii is of a initial 5 waves up is underway
-oil closing above 98 on the hourly

Bearish hints
-price breaking below 95.34 then 93.50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil070611.jpg

[SilverRex]

as you can see since silver breaking down from the neckline of the original triangle consolidation, it appear to have broken out of a sloping channel only to have retested the previous neckline and was rejected sharply. The moment of truth will be told today if it can garner back above the blue channel and re-establish a bullish move above 36. If silver begins to fall impulsively to the down side and the low 35 becomes heavy resistance, then I expect further down side ahead.

bearish hints
-previous high at 35.12 is failing to provide as support.
-slight negative divergence spotted on the 2 hour chart, could be prelude for much larger weakness

bullish hints
-price remains above 35.12 all morning
-price closing on the hourly above 36

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver070611.jpg

[Feruk]

Yeah yeah, go AVR!


Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton
I wouldn't be short on Oil right now... It's breaking relative lows, not just testing them and falling again.

Besides, equities are gaining strength again and the correlation with oil is positive (currently).

+1, not selling any oil. Also not crazy enough to buy any natural gas companies. Except maybe ONR...