Official Short-term Investments Thread

[TheRealTimHorton]

If you guys want a good long play, I think you should take a look at XLE.

US Equities strong + Positive corellation with crude, looking to close the gap with brent (its at 17 dollars from 20).

[SilverRex]

as warned before, with oil breaking above 98, it has defeated the idea of producing one last wave to under 90 and so oil is very much in a new rising 1st wave.

My own count and expectation is that oil should retreat as I spotted plenty of negative divergence across a few higher time frame, so while breaking 98 is bullish, a correction is required upon closing below 98 and should retest the 93-95 range before taking off.

as you can see oil has also produced a rounded bottom cnh pattern a typical handle correction also points towards a 4 dollar drop.

however oil is currently short term bullish as long as it remains above 98 and can still temporary poke above yesterday's top at 99.5, for energy trader I'll wait for the correction then re-enter

I've also considering the idea that since it took some time to complete the waves off 33-114, the current correction of 114-90 may be a bit too short. So there is an alt count that we could be in a larger 3-3-3 correctional wave .ii meaning for the rest of the summer oil could be range bound between 90-114, we will know more as the count develops to the upside. Oil can still meet the bottom of the previously suggested rising trend channel without having to break below 90 I will be watching for this as time goes on.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil070811.jpg

[SilverRex]

while tSX has turn a few corners by breaking the previous suggested 13300 resistance, however it is not out of the woods and with the GSR chart bottoming possibly reversing the latest metals advance TSX could still drive right back down,

right now watch 13160 closely, if we dive below this, it would usher in a new wave or TSX bears

here is a quick chart on TSX, unless it can break above the sloping red line, TSX can still produce a more violent sell off one larger the previous as it looks like it is producing a 5-3-5-3-5 waves

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/tsx070811.jpg

[SilverRex]

as previously suggested, oil indeed fell back and began its correctional wave ii, my current expectation is a 3 wave finish then oil should produce another 5 waves impulsively to the upside for a breakout.

the alt count will mean that oil remains in a large 3 wave flat correction basically range bound between 90-110 oil for a few months before thrusting readying for new highs

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil071111.jpg

[SilverRex]

gold is no doubt bullish at the moment and has been performing better than all other elements. However it is at a very significant resistance, if gold is unable to breakthru early this week, then bears will be jumping for joy, equally, anything over the other side of the red line and in sustainable fashion would ring in even more bulls to the party, we'll see if gold is for real and this week the answer will be revealed.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold071111.jpg

[SilverRex]

my last dollar chart suggested dollar is remains in a strange triangle consolidation is after retesting the rising neckline it was targeting the high 75s, since this morning it appears to had broken to the upside. One can only feel the breakout as a continuation move for much higher dollar

something has to give and if the dollar is to advance further, the market will either pull back or the dollar could immediately collapse.

the one thing is for sure, the gap under 75.2 will have to be filled some day, for all we know it could be filled in a few weeks after dollar achieves a significant correctional higher top.

with GSR chart damaged but not dead, the potential for higher GSR ration, higher dollar, weaker metal is still on the table.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071111.jpg

[SilverRex]

considering how hui have been trending along the equities, a sharp decline could lead everything down

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/hui071111.jpg

[SilverRex]

watch out for TSX, resumption of decline and renewed bearish bias if closed below 13160

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

as I said GSR chart isnt dead and remains potentially setup for a breakout,

it had imo completed a set of 5 waves so now I expect another larger wave correction before taking us higher.

However the only alternate view is that if silver is to still have a shot at retesting 37.50 with gold punching higher, then GSR will need to fall in another 5 wave fashion right back down to the rising neckline currently standing in the 42s

but with silver breaking key support at 35.12, I am not quite sure if silver even has the strength to make another run at the breakout line (37.5) hence I am maintaining my bearish view that lower lows ahead.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gsr071211.jpg

[SilverRex]

dollar is in a wave iii of {C} with negative divergence spotted on lower timer frame I expect it should now move into a very indecisive consolidation pattern for a final breakout possibly targeting around the 77.7 area (if we measure the last dollar rise off the bottom at 72.8-76.35 = 3.55 3.55+74.16 {B} low = 77.7

again notice there are 3 large gaps that needs to be filled which tells us at the end of the day once dollar completes its top in its current move, it should begin to aggressively head to new lows

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071211.jpg

[SilverRex]

with TSX breaking 13160, I now expect to see TSX lower than 12700

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by SilverRex
with TSX breaking 13160, I now expect to see TSX lower than 12700

I don't think so. 5 Month's of weakness on the TSX is plenty and it is finally showing strength relative to the S&P. Breaking those relative highs and a quick bottom out in mid June.

I like the long.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton


I don't think so. 5 Month's of weakness on the TSX is plenty and it is finally showing strength relative to the S&P. Breaking those relative highs and a quick bottom out in mid June.

I like the long.

dont get me wrong the latest action of 14k on the TSX is very corrective and its only a matter of time until we see new highs,

but on the low level it remains bearish and I have yet to see a breakout signal to resume a new rising trend. So until then, the expectation is down before going up. Price trumps and when it turns bullish I'll know

look at the last chart I posted on TSX, it remains in a declining wedge, until it breaks out, it remains potentially dangerous and volatility and swings could increase ten-fold, with the Euro crisis on radar, anything can happen. Try to have an open mind and have 2008 in the back of your mind, not to scare anyone away but to instill opportunity if price do show its hand on the weak side.


Originally posted by SilverRex
while tSX has turn a few corners by breaking the previous suggested 13300 resistance, however it is not out of the woods and with the GSR chart bottoming possibly reversing the latest metals advance TSX could still drive right back down,

right now watch 13160 closely, if we dive below this, it would usher in a new wave or TSX bears

here is a quick chart on TSX, unless it can break above the sloping red line, TSX can still produce a more violent sell off one larger the previous as it looks like it is producing a 5-3-5-3-5 waves

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/tsx070811.jpg

[SilverRex]

oil appears to have completed wave a of a correction against the 90-99 move, now moving up for wave b

[SilverRex]

as my previous view stands, I am expecting a new 5 waves down for TSX to possibly targeting under 12700, unless however it can produce a breakout signal over 13600 and if it does breakout it would validate my current count with the following chart

I have all my RRSP position ready to re-enter the TSX shall it dive towards 12000 or a buy signal over 13600 we will see which one comes first

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/tsx071211.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
as previously suggested, oil indeed fell back and began its correctional wave ii, my current expectation is a 3 wave finish then oil should produce another 5 waves impulsively to the upside for a breakout.

the alt count will mean that oil remains in a large 3 wave flat correction basically range bound between 90-110 oil for a few months before thrusting readying for new highs

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil071111.jpg

oil appears to have completed wave b and should turn lower for wave c to complete its correction

[SilverRex]

ALERT:

GSR broken down triangle, this may imply it has invalidated a potential breakout move for higher GSR which would mean, this may now be the first leg down towards 15 to 1 for metals.

with silver finally breakout of its own, metals are currently bullish

dollar may now have topped and now wave i of III in progress

this may also signal oil ready to retest 114 in coming weeks.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071311.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
as my previous view stands, I am expecting a new 5 waves down for TSX to possibly targeting under 12700, unless however it can produce a breakout signal over 13600 and if it does breakout it would validate my current count with the following chart

I have all my RRSP position ready to re-enter the TSX shall it dive towards 12000 or a buy signal over 13600 we will see which one comes first

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/tsx071211.jpg

while on the low level it requires TSX to close above 13600 to confirm this view however with the latest GSR breakout and dollar index failing, I am going to take a risk and move back all my RRSP back into TSX today in anticipation of this count

[SilverRex]

with silver breaking out and dollar appears to ready a new aggressive down trend to new lows, I expect oil to aggressively assault the highs to an eventual new high

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil071311.jpg

[ZenOps]

Bernanke opens mouth - says "probably QE3"

Silver skyrockets, gold skyrockets, even nickel skyrockets.

Dump your worthless electronic fiat dollars people. Buy wheat.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ZenOps
Bernanke opens mouth - says "probably QE3"

Silver skyrockets, gold skyrockets, even nickel skyrockets.

Dump your worthless electronic fiat dollars people. Buy wheat.

yup time to buy every 3 wave dip into 2012 for metals and possibly oil too

[SilverRex]

the breakout has negated silver's bearish case for a lower low and hence it has like oil and a resumption of a falling US dollar and failed GSR will push silver to new highs of 90-130 dollars comes 2012

and so we are now witnessing our first initial 5 waves up with an extended wave .iii, it should fall in nicely to a wave II correctional august low then the fun begins this autumn

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver071311.jpg

[SilverRex]

looking at the dollar index, it feels as thought it has another sub 5 waves down which would suggest further strength on metals/oil/equities

right now the 75.5 - 75.70 area should become the big resistance that should hold the dollar down and could very well be the next medium term counter trend top once dollar completes its initial 5 waves down (or the right shoulder before the major wave .iii of III down begins.)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071411.jpg

[SilverRex]

once oil cracks 100 and turns it into support this could be the support for many years to come

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
wow oil fell off a cliff

99-100 is still a metal barrier, again it is currently correcting and once broken it will turn into support.

gold and silver is moving like a wave .iii small correction, rise, small correction rise....continue to rinse and repeat

[SilverRex]

after being out of town last friday, cant wait to see what this new week brings in.

I've noticed GSR has finally taken another dive under the all important 40, it only confirms the inevitable that this ratio will soon make head lines, but another test below this could sprung up some short term rallies as I see gold too hit a milestone by achieving 1600 this morning, was it really luck? or did we all knew it was coming? yes we all knew a very long time ago, I only feel sorry for Sinclair and his 1650 prediction, he was never wrong on price, just timing which can easily be altered with manipulation

At the end, price speaks volume and no matter how you cut and dice it the fact gold is on course for history making levels only tells us the future is both thrilling and dangerous.

Silver this morning, since having a BO over the overhead trendline just under 37 has forced metals to take on a new life. .

Silver is currently bullish, especially it has rising into an accelerated channel with support just under 39.50, so long this holds, silver will continue to find strength and can easily move above 41, however with gold hitting 1600 and GSR temporary falling below 40, it is quite possible Silver is setting up for a bit of a larger correction. Count remains the same as it was last week that it is in an extended wave (.iii) sequence and appears to be completing its wave .v of (.iii) which (staying above 39.50) could also extend. I know, the beauty of EW, they can keep extending for ever, how else are we going to achieve 100 silver next year?

If 39.5 falls, I believe our wave (.iv) correction will have begun, I expect the targeted area for correction would fall somewhere between 38-39 with a worse case scenario of in the 37-38

if count goes our way, I dont think silver will break below 35 and will become our underlying support for much higher price, we now have plenty of support underneath for silver to work its magic.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver071711.jpg





Originally posted by SilverRex
the breakout has negated silver's bearish case for a lower low and hence it has like oil and a resumption of a falling US dollar and failed GSR will push silver to new highs of 90-130 dollars comes 2012

and so we are now witnessing our first initial 5 waves up with an extended wave .iii, it should fall in nicely to a wave II correctional august low then the fun begins this autumn

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver071311.jpg

[SilverRex]

As you can see, the dollar index did not quite make it down to retest the rising neckline near 74.50, I have since revised the count for dollar to have completed its first set of waves down and appears it is not correcting into a wave .ii countertrend rally with a gap that needs to be filled in the low 75s. A very bearish reversal would suggest it can suddenly begin to fall sharply and begin wave the next 5 waves down to new lows however an alt view could also suggest it will linger above 74.50 for a few more days to mark a higher correction. either way supports the notion that the next major wave should be down and should bold well for oil

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071711.jpg

[SilverRex]

an update on Nagtas, ever since 4.40 fell few weeks ago, it appeared as though it was ready to make lows, however with the recent commodity reversal which showed plenty of key signals crossing into bullish territory, a rising oil would kill off any notion that Natgas had to head lower.

and since then closing last week on the high and has turned 4.40 right back into support. my new view and count would suggest this 5-5-5 flat correction to be quite the range and now am convinced that so long 4.00 holds, higher Natgas awaits.

short term 4.4 will again be our good friend to support Natgas higher, we will see 5.00+ Natgas finally? just when everyone decides to quite, thats when she blows

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/natgas071711.jpg

[ZenOps]

Silver over $40 again.

I really did not expect them to do the five margin increases that quickly and that drastically.

Forced selling, dangerous game. They force out the weak hands but leave permabulls in a better position.

Forex shutting down OTC trading forced a quick sell in gold, but it recovered much, much faster than I expected.

[Hi-Psi]

Had my first official double today. Scorpio Mining (SPM)

Of course it's not a true double until I sell and I don't plan to do that for quite some time yet but was pretty excited to see it up 116% from when I bought it. :-)

Next one will hopefully be Gammon Gold(Now known as AuRico Gold) as I'm up 85% in that one.

Now the wait for my first multiple bagger :-)

This past month has been pretty good for my portfolio, finally back in solid green and ready for a strong drive up this fall/winter.

Jason

[SilverRex]

oil correction is about over and ready to breakout into a wave iii move targeting above 102+ easily

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
the breakout has negated silver's bearish case for a lower low and hence it has like oil and a resumption of a falling US dollar and failed GSR will push silver to new highs of 90-130 dollars comes 2012

and so we are now witnessing our first initial 5 waves up with an extended wave .iii, it should fall in nicely to a wave II correctional august low then the fun begins this autumn

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver071311.jpg

looks like silver has completed sub .iii and is correction working the .iv correction

update: silver wave .v of I of {V} starting now imo

[5.0]

BKT -Brookemont Capital- is about to pop back up in the next couple days, they are about to release results on two of their projects. Awesome buy @ 0.16, expecting a new high. :thumbsup:

[FlamingC19]

^ How do you know this?

[hamburgler]

Originally posted by 5.0
BKT -Brookemont Capital- is about to pop back up in the next couple days, they are about to release results on two of their projects. Awesome buy @ 0.16, expecting a new high. :thumbsup:

No financial statements available from their website and they have only been around for a year. How is this a good buy at $0.16?

[SilverRex]

silver/gold is moving along as expected - see previous chart for counts.

looking at oil this morning, it appears after completing 5 waves from 90-99, it has been lingering in a wave II correction and time wise should nearly be completed

we either have started our wave .i of (.iii) and we should see oil break higher today, alternatively it can still mark another wave lower towards 94-96 but that is not my prefer count. Critical area is now at 93.50 which must hold in order to support this projection

once oil breaks out of 100, it will target 115 as a minimum and potentially heading towards 120-126 which was my original forecast for the year

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil072111.jpg

[SilverRex]

looks like dollar is moving to the red path


As you can see, the dollar index did not quite make it down to retest the rising neckline near 74.50, I have since revised the count for dollar to have completed its first set of waves down and appears it is now correcting into a wave .ii countertrend rally with a gap that needs to be filled in the low 75s. A very bearish reversal would suggest it can suddenly begin to fall sharply and begin the next 5 waves down to new lows however an alt view could also suggest it will linger above 74.50 for a few more days to mark a higher correction. either way supports the notion that the next major wave should be down and should bold well for oil

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar071711.jpg

[SilverRex]

as posted eariler, the long term chart will look like this if dollar is to tank further with 74.80 becoming major resistance

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar072111.jpg

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by TheRealTimHorton
If you guys want a good long play, I think you should take a look at XLE.

US Equities strong + Positive corellation with crude, looking to close the gap with brent (its at 17 dollars from 20).

From July 6..

Keep an eye on it!

The WTI/Brent gap isn't closing its actually widened a little bit, but XLE is still in play.

[SilverRex]

with silver and gold hinging on what appears to be an angled h&s, we will look at GSR for clues

my bet is still favoring that the drop from 44 to 39 was some sort of wave sub wave iii leg down and so far it has produced 5 waves up and if it continues to produce another 5 waves higher (without breaking 41.80) this could push silver/gold into fulfilling the h&s pattern and correct further down silver to 37, gold to 1560

an immediately bearish resumption would imply the 5 waves off 39.5 has completed wave .iv in an ABCDE wave and GSR is simply counter correcting its first wave .i of (v) decline, in that sense, metals should hold up without producing a h&s breakdown and resume upwards.

the next few hours will be telling

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gsr072111.jpg

[Hi-Psi]

Well since the talk has kinda died in here, I'll give an update on some of my holdings.

I have about 11 holdings spread out over roughly $40k.

My current winners:

SPM - 117%
AUQ - 85%
HAL - 26% (Largest holding in my portfolio, roughly 25%)

All 3 continue to tear it up and I see good things continuing into the future and will hold for a long time to come. I have had huge hopes for HAL and it continues to do me well and has been on a huge tear as of the last month.

My current losers:

FIU - 65% (Small holding)
TBZ - 85% (Small holding)
CMM - 38% (Larger holding)
PYN - 48% (Larger holding)
AMF - 35% (Medium holding)

I understand I'll take some criticism for not setting stop losses but it was a decision I made when I first started investing and although it has in a way burned me, I'm still confident in my holdings and would rather wait it out and see what happens. I understand my money could be doing better holding other things rather than holding onto losers but we'll see how it plays out.

My plan to put all my high risk/high reward stocks in my TFSA hasn't panned out as well as hoped but it's still early, I'm hoping this fall/winter will turn things around completely and have me seeing some nice gains. My RRSP is nicely into the positive where my TFSA is negative in every way except SPM.

The 2 that are hurting me the most would be PYN and CMM. I still have a lot of confidence in PYN and plan to hold it at least for another year or until significant gains are made.

With CMM I'm gonna wait and see what happens with the takeover before I make any moves with it.

TBZ just fell off the face of the planet within a month due to some funding issues but I still see it bouncing back with time.

FIU I'm not really sure what to do with, there is talk of debt issues but they plan to ramp up production this year and thus could see a nice rebound in their stock, we'll see.

AMF is still my "Ace in the hole", at least that's what I'm hoping for. This stock I'm going to hold in hopes of hitting a home run.

Anyways, feel free to make comments, I still consider myself pretty new and I've probable made some smart choices and some dumb choices but overall I'm still doing decent for a beginner in my opinion.

Happy investing :-)

Jason

[bitteeinbit]

Interesting holdings. I've trimmed my holdings down significantly as I don't have much time to trade nowadays and I don't like the current situation. I'll probably start buying again next month through September.

I currently have:
ENB (largest position, used for trading. I buy in thirds and scale in/out. It's a nice stock but has not been acting the way I want it to lately, or rather more slowly than I anticipated, mostly due to the TSX correction)
ORT.A (Actually bought after you recommended it at some point and I did a ton of research on it thereafter as it caught my attention. I bought in mid April and I've bought down significantly since. I held through the huge dip in mid-May and I'm thankful I did. I've bought to a point where I'm comfortable with the size. I don't want it too big in case something goes wrong, but I might start buying a bit more next month before it moves up a lot in the coming months. I don't think we'll see these prices again for a while. I'm a huge believer in this company and stock so I'm exited but don't want to get stupid either and put all my eggs in one basket.
CLQ (I'm kinda stuck in this as I bought early this year after trading it a lot last year. Not sure what to do with it. hold it for 2-3 years or sell it now).


I've also traded THI, TRP, PD lately, but as mentioned I'm pretty much keeping cash on hand for another 1-2 months. Then I'll have both the time to trade and also hopefully the market correction/volatility will have ended.

[SilverRex]

silver broke out as expected, and over all (see 2nd chart) is moving along beautifully in a sub .v of (i) and quite possible would top out this week

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver072211.jpg

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver071311.jpg

[SilverRex]

silver/gold looks ready to break out of the consolidation triangle, dollar is corrective in pattern on the 1 hour, remains weak and ready to head lower

looks like GSR is ready to turn 40 into a big resistance, potentially if metals run up and GSR falls, the next big correction could bring them back to retest current levels as support

[Hi-Psi]

Yeah I wish I had some ORT.A in my portfolio, unfortunately I didn't buy when I originally wanted to and then ran short of funds when I purchased PYN. I had planned to do a quick flip with PYN but of course got stuck in the down cycle so now I'm staying firm with PYN and will wait for more funds to get into ORT.A


Oh and funny enough, FIU is up 45% today on news of AangloGold taking a 19% stake in the company. Looks like I may get back some of my money sooner rather than later now.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Hi-Psi
Well since the talk has kinda died in here, I'll give an update on some of my holdings.

I have about 11 holdings spread out over roughly $40k.

My current winners:

SPM - 117%
AUQ - 85%
HAL - 26% (Largest holding in my portfolio, roughly 25%)

All 3 continue to tear it up and I see good things continuing into the future and will hold for a long time to come. I have had huge hopes for HAL and it continues to do me well and has been on a huge tear as of the last month.

My current losers:

FIU - 65% (Small holding)
TBZ - 85% (Small holding)
CMM - 38% (Larger holding)
PYN - 48% (Larger holding)
AMF - 35% (Medium holding)


Nice double on SPM! Look at all the trends of the ones you've lost money on. They're all in a huge downtrend; you're just gonna keep leaking funds until something changes (ie news). The trend is your friend (it'd tell you you should've sold every one of them long ago). I don't use stop losses, but when you cross key support levels, it's time to sell. I can't say this strongly enough: NEVER enter a company on a downtrend, never ever even if you believe in the company. Nine times out of ten, it'll keep going down.

My current portfolio:
AVR - got in at $1.55, wouldn't be a buyer at $2.17 where it's at
ONR - in at $5.11 average, love these guys, $6.88 now!
TCW - in at ~$14.50ish, took half off the table recently to add to ONR, still love TCW though
S - in at ~8 (my big loser), should've sold but went on vacation and forgot
WCP - in at $5.75, starting to re-consider at $7.55
SLI - have very big position here, in at $2.17 average
Employer stock - down but have to hold grants for a year before I can sell

Thoughts? I realize I'm not well diversified, but have been watching 3 REITS and 2 agriculture companies for a while waiting for entry. I only buy stocks in the range of $1 to $15 and never hold more than 10 stocks on ~$80K portfolio. Rare exception may apply.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
I think I might buy some puts on LNKD :eek:

I think I will sell you those Puts. :D

[SilverRex]

metals are moving beautifully (see my last charts) and so I would like to comment on dollar

looking at the dollar, im currently going to count that wave sub .iii is completed and we are correcting in a wave .iv with one more sets of 5 waves down to possibly retesting 73-73.5

key resistance lies at 73.80 which must hold in order to expect further weakness

alternatively this sub .iii wave could be extended and it will have a more bearish implication. However given metals have started its own sub .v move, having the dollar complete its sub .v makes more sense.

the bigger correction would come for metals once dollar completes its 5 waves to where ever it lands I suspect low 73s, then I will welcome the august low and give commodity buyers one last chance to load up for the winter blast

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar072511.jpg

[e36bmw///]

nm

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Are you saying gold will go higher or lower in august?

its near a top and should be tracing out a low in august. This low could be a higher low

[SilverRex]

dollar dropped as expected.


this week could mark a bottom and the completion of 1st wave. it touched 73.52 which is fairly close to the 73-73.5 target. however it is not out of the woods and can certainly achieve a bit of a lower low.

with a gap present, the dollar will gain strength in august as I suspect.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar072611.jpg

[natejj]

Anyone else enjoying TRE? I got in at 4.40

[ExtraSlow]

TRE hurt me earlier. I'm out of it. I'm staying out of it.

I actually think this is one place TA trading could be very uselful, since fundamentals are hard to quantify on this stock.

[dawerks]

Good bye OPC!

Time for some people to update their resumes (and wipe any association of OPC from them).

[SilverRex]

oil has finally cracked 100, let see if the breakout is a real one.

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by natejj
Anyone else enjoying TRE? I got in at 4.40
I thought about hopping in early last week after seeing a jump up. Then i saw two consecutive 10% jumps at the end of last week. Bah, it's certainly not one stock I'm kicking myself for not diving in. I won't be touching it for a while.

[Neil4Speed]

Anyone want to explain the logic of this article. Seems a bit opposite to what I would have expected.

http://arabnews.com/economy/article478553.ece

[SilverRex]

metals top appears to be in place as dollar completed 5 waves down and has turned around short term, with negative divergence spotted on all fronts, this could usher in a 2+ week correction for metals.

[SilverRex]

if gold has indeed topped and dollar to begin a counter trend rally. I would expect the count as follow and confirmation to validate this requires gold to close below 1607 then we are to expect a correction against the 1480-1628 rise. Initial landing targeting 1571 would be ideal.

if gold remains above 1607, the alt view is that it can be an extended wave .v which would turn 1610 into a very key support during the next back test.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold072711.jpg

[in*10*se]

holding 99% cash. not buying until after Aug 2 aftermath.

even if a deal is reached and the debt ceiling is raised, the markets will not react favorably to

a. potential credit downgrade from AAA to AA
b. the fact that the US is/was so close to not having enough money to pay its bills.

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by in*10*se
holding 99% cash. not buying until after Aug 2 aftermath.

even if a deal is reached and the debt ceiling is raised, the markets will not react favorably to

a. potential credit downgrade from AAA to AA
b. the fact that the US is/was so close to not having enough money to pay its bills.

I like the way you think. Live to fight another day.

[davidI]

I'm in a cash position too. Canadian cash. Trying to figure out when a good time to pick up US$ will be and invest in US stock. The trend on the US$ is still down...

[5.0]

Expect BKT to bump up some more in the coming days...

[Feruk]

This has not been a good week... Gold heading up, my gold stocks heading down. WTF!

[Hi-Psi]

I've lost $2k in the last 2 days.... Not worried of course but still, sucks to see after the huge gains I made the last 2 weeks.

[bitteeinbit]

Yesterday and before yesterday were brutal on me as well, but today wasn't as bad. Since I was getting closer and closer to my buy-in on ENB and wanting to lock in at least some profits, I put a sell order today for half my holdings for 31$. Now I come back hoe and see it's gone up 1.73%... Oh well, maybe I can still sell the remainder at my target price.

[Akumaz]

anyone eyeing any entry point for certain stocks?
i am looking into investing in something different, any ideas would be great

[ZenOps]

Hmm.

On the off chance that the US does default and lose its AAA rating, what do you think it means for gold, silver and other commodities?

If the market crashes there is a good chance commodities will go with it - so that means stay in cash until this gets sorted out? (CDN dollars or Swiss Francs?)

[TheRealTimHorton]

Originally posted by ZenOps
Hmm.

On the off chance that the US does default and lose its AAA rating, what do you think it means for gold, silver and other commodities?

If the market crashes there is a good chance commodities will go with it - so that means stay in cash until this gets sorted out? (CDN dollars or Swiss Francs?)

Commodities is safe I would presume.

Just because what you might own is widely priced in USD doesn't mean it has zero value in other currencies. A barrel of oil is a barrel of oil. lol

[ExtraSlow]

Originally posted by Akumaz
anyone eyeing any entry point for certain stocks?
i am looking into investing in something different, any ideas would be great
I've got a buy order in on NWE.V @0.02. It's a company we use at work, and a few of the co-workers are invested in it.

They all bought in for 0.05 and up, so I want to buy at 0.02 just to annoy them.

[ZenOps]

Gold and silver down.

Platinum and Palladium up.

Any thoughts on the metal that is 100x rarer than gold (Platinum?)

Might be a bargain at $1800/ounce.

[SilverRex]

last time I expected the US dollar index to have completed 5 waves down and begin making counter waves back up, while it did hit my targeted area of 73-73.5 and rallied strongly however looking at the latest chart based on time duration, it feels more like dollar has only completed wave .iii and is part taking a wave .iv correction with one more wave down to lower lows 73?

if that is the case then we might expect metals to drive slightly higher before a larger correction takes hold.

I will push out my original view on the dollar that 5 waves has been completed as an alt view.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar080211.jpg

[SilverRex]

looking at oil, the brief rise from 98-100 is now seen as a fake short term breakout but over all it is still cap sized under a much larger declining resistance now most likely situated at 99. As I said before the next time it breaks 100 (for real) it would turn that into a multi year support (imo), however it never was able to do so, thus, 100 oil is the break or break resistance and so, oil remains under pressured.

the Gap lefted at around 87.x could also be seen as one reason why oil may need to filled before moving higher.

i will stick to my current view that oil's bottom was completed at 89 and we are simply making a counter trend correction before the next significant rise.

if however 89 is broken to the down side, then filling the gap near 87 will become the most likely next target low, even so I still believe oil will present as a very good entry pt around the mid 80s so this alt view does not suggest the sky is falling, rather an opportunity to think about the energy sector (maybe this is where NG will finally bottom out)

the only very bearish view I have for oil is that as you can see after oil crashing down from 114 initially to 94 near and around wave (A), the latest black lines appears to be some sort of consolidation or flag pattern. what worries me is that there is a risk that oil could be moving in an ABCDE consolidation and the out come would be to head even lower, the only way for this to happen is if the dollar index to sudden reverse its bearish outlook and begin significantly move higher like back above 78, this could also crash metals and being the fear of 08 discussion back on the table (silver under 35)

but for now, lets be optimistic, in a healthy trend and the greed of the world will do what ever it takes to take oil back above 150, I believe 30 oil drop from 114 to 84 is plentiful for a correction, and we should see commodities inch higher starting this fall.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080211.jpg

[Feruk]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow

I've got a buy order in on NWE.V @0.02. It's a company we use at work, and a few of the co-workers are invested in it.

They all bought in for 0.05 and up, so I want to buy at 0.02 just to annoy them.
$4.5MM market cap on annual revenue of $14MM (estimate) and annual earnings of ~$840K (estimate). Their debt isn't bad, but their lending ability is tiny. Still very interesting. This company must have the WORST IR I've ever seen to be worth only $0.05 unless I'm missing something...

[ExtraSlow]

All O&G service companies will have thier seasonal uptick through the fall and winter. I feel this one is poised to do better than most.

Still, not a slam-dunk by any means. I'm buying small on them.

[ZenOps]

Holy Jeebus, look at gold today.

$1580 Cdn ($1650 US)

[broken_legs]

Originally posted by ZenOps
Holy Jeebus, look at gold today.

$1580 Cdn ($1650 US)

Canada posted Negative GDP last month - I say real Estate goes up some more.


http://i274.photobucket.com/albums/jj259/broken_legs/gold_2011Aug2.png

[Feruk]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
All O&G service companies will have thier seasonal uptick through the fall and winter. I feel this one is poised to do better than most.

Still, not a slam-dunk by any means. I'm buying small on them.
Their volume concerns me greatly. Less than $40K of the stock traded in the last MONTH. They look way undervalued, but nobody seems to care.

[ExtraSlow]

The volume is a big problem, I agree. Not a single trade has executed on them since the morning of July 27th. That's a long time even for a penny stock.

[dawerks]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
The volume is a big problem, I agree. Not a single trade has executed on them since the morning of July 27th. That's a long time even for a penny stock.

Maybe there's no MM for it? It happens to some unloved stocks, no one is wiling to carry the axe so they sit for days until 2 retail guys set their own 'book'.

Rare, but it happens. I wouldn't think of it as a 'bad' thing, just you'll never get out of it if you have to.

The guy who works there and his co-workers can be mini MM's! It could be fun to trade the stock with your buddies.

[broken_legs]

Gold peaked at 1606 CAD/oz today.

Could we see $2000+ this year?

Short term interbank lending rates are more than long term rates right now. Why willing to pay more for cash in short term bankies?

If there is a big liquidity vacuum and we have a 2008 replay, perhaps we can expect PMs to sell off as well. Gotta sell that gold to pay your margin calls.

[Neil4Speed]

Oil stocks have taken quite the beating the last two days. Ouch.

[ZenOps]

Stock market just got punched in the balls.

Support anywhere? I'm not much of a chartist, but I can't see a trend anywhere which means "look out below"?

[dawerks]

Originally posted by ZenOps
Stock market just got punched in the balls.

Support anywhere? I'm not much of a chartist, but I can't see a trend anywhere which means "look out below"?

Do you even own stocks or you're just one of those doom sayers from the sidelines?

Did you notice the gold/resources is doing pretty well?

Or the 1000 point drop and 1000 point gain this summer alone? It happens, chill out. These are all money making opportunities, do you know what shorting is?

Did you know that markets can go up and down?

[ZenOps]

Gold and silver up 2% again today.

Stox, whats that? Methinks its too early even for gold stox. Sprott has the right idea, but hes too anxious and early.

[997TT]

gonna take a shot a few stocks....

just added SU at $33.59 and TCK.B two days ago at 44.93 (which went up yesterday but is now down 4% today...lol)

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by 997TT
gonna take a shot a few stocks....

just added SU at $33.59

:werd:

[ZenOps]

TSX down 400 points.

"Its like bungie jumping off the bridge, without a cord."

[Magic-8-Ball]

Silverrex,

Looks like 89 dollar oil was cracked...and looks like it is heading down pretty quickly! Any positive outlook on oil if it blows past 87.x?


Originally posted by SilverRex
looking at oil, the brief rise from 98-100 is now seen as a fake short term breakout but over all it is still cap sized under a much larger declining resistance now most likely situated at 99. As I said before the next time it breaks 100 (for real) it would turn that into a multi year support (imo), however it never was able to do so, thus, 100 oil is the break or break resistance and so, oil remains under pressured.

the Gap lefted at around 87.x could also be seen as one reason why oil may need to filled before moving higher.

i will stick to my current view that oil's bottom was completed at 89 and we are simply making a counter trend correction before the next significant rise.

if however 89 is broken to the down side, then filling the gap near 87 will become the most likely next target low, even so I still believe oil will present as a very good entry pt around the mid 80s so this alt view does not suggest the sky is falling, rather an opportunity to think about the energy sector (maybe this is where NG will finally bottom out)

the only very bearish view I have for oil is that as you can see after oil crashing down from 114 initially to 94 near and around wave (A), the latest black lines appears to be some sort of consolidation or flag pattern. what worries me is that there is a risk that oil could be moving in an ABCDE consolidation and the out come would be to head even lower, the only way for this to happen is if the dollar index to sudden reverse its bearish outlook and begin significantly move higher like back above 78, this could also crash metals and being the fear of 08 discussion back on the table (silver under 35)

but for now, lets be optimistic, in a healthy trend and the greed of the world will do what ever it takes to take oil back above 150, I believe 30 oil drop from 114 to 84 is plentiful for a correction, and we should see commodities inch higher starting this fall.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080211.jpg

[ZenOps]

All commodities and stocks crashing. Look out below!

Even gold is barely treding water.

Dow down 400, 4% down on Nasdaq and S&P.

Silver down $3.

Last hour could be brutal.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by in*10*se
holding 99% cash. not buying until after Aug 2 aftermath.

even if a deal is reached and the debt ceiling is raised, the markets will not react favorably to

a. potential credit downgrade from AAA to AA
b. the fact that the US is/was so close to not having enough money to pay its bills.

i called it. not that it's a surprise... but holy fuck what a bloody day

[in*10*se]

VXX or SDS anyone?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball
Silverrex,

Looks like 89 dollar oil was cracked...and looks like it is heading down pretty quickly! Any positive outlook on oil if it blows past 87.x?



been sick for the last few days, but I should resume tomorrow and bring up some charting.

quick cap, 6-8 months ago been calling to watch out anything post june - looks like its fulfilling its cycles to the tee.

I believe oil gap has been filled today, and anything around mid 80s is a good buy as the declining channel top would swing oil back above 94

metals has completed its initial 5 waves and is in a steeper correctional wave II.

looking back at some of the previous charts I posted, silver is moving down in a correctional wave II so long it can hold above 35

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver071311.jpg

dollar index is also moving counter correctively in its own wave (.ii)

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar072111.jpg

and who could remember early july I posted the potential of TSX crashing in a larger and larger sell off waves? I personally have jumped the gun early as it did not confirm the trend change by closing above 13600, therefore this chart remained valid and has shown what could happen when you dont wait for confirmation.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/tsx070811.jpg

[revelations]

Originally posted by in*10*se
VXX or SDS anyone?

Yes please!

[SilverRex]

for oil, it has filled the gap at 87.x and imo I believe the mid 80s (cant rule out price can overshoot to 80) is a great buy imo. After having consecutively took over a year knocking the mid 80s (5) times I expect this area to provide a very solid support (at least on first attampt)

-strong resistance has turned mid 80s into support
-rising neckline since summer of 09 is just underneath
-38% fibo retracement is situated at 83.7 from the 33-114 rise)

no matter how you dice it, the mid 80s will provide the support we need, the only question is when the breakout will occur, I expect price will soon begin to trace out the current declining widening channel top which is near 98-99, force another sell off back towards 90, then the fun will begin in sept/oct

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/oil080511.jpg

[revelations]

TSX composite just hit 50,000,000 shares traded. Thats gotta be news worthy (for an index that sees ~2,000,000 normally).

[SilverRex]

TSX has just retested the bottom channel of a declining wedge

as far as pattern goes, longer term this is a bullish pattern, but will require confirmation for price to breakout, previously it was unable to confirm with the closing above 13600, the price to watch is to wait for price to close above 13400

I expect TSX to hold here and begin slowly moving back up

falling any further could trigger alot more sell stops, not going to be easy.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/tsx080511.jpg