Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

the drop in gold can produce a very good opportunity, however be mindful of support. if gold does not hold its head above 1722, then what is viewed as a phase transitional breakout - backtest could become a outright collapse. the current sharp swing is beginning to produce a negative divergence on the weekly/monthly chart. while not confirmed, it can be a sign of things to come.

unless 1722 is broken to the downside, I am viewing this as a very sharp correction, I do not expect gold to recover back to 1900, since gold can now produce a H&S pattern with 1910 being the head, so the next few weeks leading into September will determine if gold is about to take off, or a steeper correction follows.

for silver, key support lies at 39.80 or it will become neutral, break below 37 would turn the trend bearish medium term.

if gold can get near 1722, it would become a very good risk/reward play if you can set your stop below.

[Mr_John]

Joining the momentum and am shorting slv until Friday.

[revelations]

Anyone wager a guess which way the markets are heading the next few days?

Will the drop continue ? (I kinda feel like were teetering on the edge of a drop again)

[Akumaz]

i am always open to wagers
i have a feeling it will be a up day
lets put money down if ur open to it!


Originally posted by revelations
Anyone wager a guess which way the markets are heading the next few days?

Will the drop continue ? (I kinda feel like were teetering on the edge of a drop again)

[SilverRex]

with gold's sudden sharp correction, it shouldnt come as a surprise as the price of metal is being controlled. Gold is simply getting its turn of the pie (silver had theirs in May)

that said, chart speaks, looking at silver I am still supporting the idea we had a 1st 5 waves up, the only modification is having 44 being wave (I) top instead of a breakout for wave (III), I have long been expecting this pattern since beginning of July, and even expected a wave (I) top somewhere between 43-45.

The only concern now is silver is about to confirm a negative divergence on stoch if it falls further, even so. I remain positive on the outlook that this is a correction, only falling below 35 would it mirror a 2008 failure.

If you ever watch silver the past 5-10 years, it loves to produce a declining neckline, (marked green) once this is taken out, its another signal that a new trend is about to emerge that should be the wave (III) of {V} we've all been waiting for.

until then let see how silver plays out in the next few weeks.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver082511.jpg

[Magic-8-Ball]

Anyone have any outlook on where oil is headed in the short term?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball
Anyone have any outlook on where oil is headed in the short term?

range bound until it can break above 90,

[SilverRex]

I've read somewhere that humans will one day discover an alternate energy source that requires the use of silver, this will frantically raise the demand and price of an already bullish poor man's metal.

if there is one thing to bet on, I dont think silver will ever fall below 20 dollars ever again.

fact: in the course of history 400oz of silver can once buy you a house. Keep that notion in mind. I recommend everyone to at least have that much in physical as a bare minimum.

[Feruk]

Anyone holding or looking at TSX:MEL (Meridian Energy Ltd)? I'm waiting for the downtrend to dissipate and I might throw some cash in. Decent land base in the Swan Hills area.

[in*10*se]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/sinoforest/osc-orders-sino-forest-executives-to-resign/article2143054/?utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner&utm_content=Google+International&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheGlobeAndMail-Business+%28The+Globe+and+Mail+-+Business+News%29

well.

To all you gamblers in TRE.TO... i hope you got out in time before the cease trade.

[Magic-8-Ball]

What stocks do you typically hold in terms of silver within your portfolio?




Originally posted by SilverRex
I've read somewhere that humans will one day discover an alternate energy source that requires the use of silver, this will frantically raise the demand and price of an already bullish poor man's metal.

if there is one thing to bet on, I dont think silver will ever fall below 20 dollars ever again.

fact: in the course of history 400oz of silver can once buy you a house. Keep that notion in mind. I recommend everyone to at least have that much in physical as a bare minimum.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by Feruk
Anyone holding or looking at TSX:MEL (Meridian Energy Ltd)? I'm waiting for the downtrend to dissipate and I might throw some cash in. Decent land base in the Swan Hills area.

WCP WSX MEL

are the best light oil weighted producers IMHO

STO

this one has best potential to get in early

[Feruk]

Originally posted by in*10*se


WCP WSX MEL

are the best light oil weighted producers IMHO

STO

this one has best potential to get in early

Love WCP, have held it for 6 months plus. WSX trades at a premium, prolly justifyably due to great plays and the very likely potential that Crescent Point takes them out. I don't like paying for that much upside, so haven't bought yet.

STO however, first time I looked at it. As Admiral Ackbar would say, "it's a trap." I wouldn't touch this one above $0.83 and it's at $2.65 now!! They're trading at 328,000/flowing barrel (excl debt which I couldn't find in my 2 minute look, that would make it even worse). I'd be very cautious with this name as you're paying for more than double their current production at $2.65. Comprable example, a shitty company my buddy bought, Reliable Energy (REL). I'd be really careful with this one.

[SilverRex]

a quick stab on the dollar, may have to wait few more days to do a recount.

but just looking at the way its been moving lately, the dollar appears ready to make one more dash upward.

imo, as long as it stays under 76, any bullish inclination in the short term would be viewed as corrective.

if dollar is to fall now, it must turn around with price sitting right on a resistance neckline. otherwise I expect it will find a way to retest around 75.5

if dollar does punch upward, it could very well help continue the selling pressure on metals. GSR looks like its continues to be held down by its own resistance line waiting for a breakout

the stock market could use one more dip (lower lows) to create a divergence setting up for a good reversal of trend

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/dollar082611.jpg

[SilverRex]

im still bullish on silver (see my last chart), but if the potential H&S comes to fruition on gold which could target the low 1500s, then an alternate view on silver would change to making a lower low (under 32)

nothing beats a coming sharp rise without first falling significantly, its all about the momentum in direction (like the 80s when gold corrected 50% prior to the parabolic mania rise shortly after)

call it one last major shake out?

we'll see.

35 will continue to be the key are to watch for silver to maintain its bullish projection in the medium term.

also unless oil can capture above 90, it remains bearish and could very well follow the SM and suddenly move to a lower low under 75 to create its own divergence. but I see that will be an opportunity to pick up in the energy sector as well.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver082611.jpg

[bitteeinbit]

Just wanted to give a thumbs up on your recent analysis of gold int he long-term investment thread silverex.


Originally posted by SilverRex
an update to the gold long term bull count. looking back to 2009 when I first recommended buy on gold when it created the breakout buy signal in the 9xx, it has since never looked back.

right now gold is moving in its final parabolic rise similar to the 80s) and is currently in its final wave 1 of 5 move targeting over 2000 straight unto 2012.

after this move is over, it could then set gold back into a multi-year correction

I see gold finding a bottom some time this month targeting at least 1720s, with an alt count low some where between 1600-1680 (marked by the rising red line)

only if gold break below 1575 would it invalidate the current move and usher in a bearish signal reversal, as long as it holds above this area, expect small pull backs and non-stop continual rise starting towards month end.

silver has the potential to still look for backtest towards 35 as fear remains in the market (only breaking below 35 would silver target under 32 . GSR looks to be seeking its final top between 46-50

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold2012.jpg

As we now see, it seems your low was met (at least on the UK exchange).
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au0060lnb.gif
I'm not a huge gold fan but I might pick up an ETF soon as it does seem it's headed higher for teh short-term. I think it might even go higher if markets go strong (so in other words, regardless of any bearish or bullish market sentiment). Funny, because I never go to the long-term investment thread and I looked at the date you posted (Aug 11th I think) and felt like it had been a good call on your part.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Feruk
Yeah ONR is definitely one of my favorites for this year. Hoping for $8 at least by year end.

Self quote I realize. ONR up at $8.50 on a 35% gain today!!

[slick2404]

^:clap: nicely done sir!

[ZenOps]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904900904576553923594598048.html

Swiss Franc down 10% on the day against the Euro.

Yes, 10%. It appears that the Swiss have been forced into the bankers fiat ponzi scheme by the rest of the world. Which means that ordinary citizens (even billionaires) are being forced to hold paper.

Expect global devaluation of all currencies to commence immediately. Zimbabwean dollars for everyone, including Canada.

Gold crash also possible (no currency is safe, even metal if they attempt to do what I think they are going to try to do)

$5 loaf of bread not entirely out of the question. But on the bright side: It looks like debts will be repaid. Have fun playing stocks, because if your purchasing power is destroyed 10% per day - it won't matter how much paper anyone is holding.

[Feruk]

Even the Swiss central bank said their currency was significantly overvalued a few weeks ago. No biggie.

[davidI]

Cash continues to be king!!! The DAX is getting crushed. Gapped below support today...next support appears to be 4500 then all the way down to 4000!

[bitteeinbit]

Big time. I still only have ORT in my portfolio which is a very-long term stock, waiting for a major dip to add a bit more. Haven't bought anything all summer besides ENB and THI and I planned on doing some shopping this month but the markets are still reacting badly to just about everything. I guess staying on the sidelines is the best bet for those of us with a tad less guts/who want to play it safe.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by davidI
Cash continues to be king!!! The DAX is getting crushed. Gapped below support today...next support appears to be 4500 then all the way down to 4000!

TSX -277 right now lulz.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[slick2404]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Got kicked in the crotch by the TSX yet again... for like the 3rd time this summer. :werd:

[Feruk]

Overall still having a positive summer, but days like today hurt! Only exciting part is the big drops in Canadian banks so I can get in cheap. Either that, or gonna be looking for some dividend profits in names like CFN.UN, MKP, AW.UN.

[davidI]

What are some good recommendations on Canadian Banks? I really need to put some money into the financials at some point so I should start watching a few...

TD? RBC? BMO?

[997TT]

^
id lean towards TD of the 3 ... though i own about $30k RY right now and 20k BMO. haha. But i am trying to reduce those positions and shift into TD gradually.

[ZenOps]

Soo...

I'm not a chartist, but is that a double top in gold I see?

Thats usually an imminent crash sign yes?

[Feruk]

Looking more at Scotia Bank for lack of exposure in the USA and plenty in developing world. The other interesting one to me is National Bank of Canada. No interest in BMO, very little in Royal (US exposure). Rounding up the big 5, neutral on TD and CIBC.

[bitteeinbit]

Wow... RIM has become a joke. Or rather, the stock market in general has become a joke. It's like walking on eggshells. Does anyone own some RIM? I remember last September I bought some at 48$, sold a few months later for a decent profit. Wanted to buy again when it was in the low 50ies but never did (actually I think I did but got burned on a 5% drop the next day after Q1 results and pulled out). It just keeps falling off one cliff after the other.

[hamburgler]

What are some ppl's thoughts of IBC Advanced Alloys Corp?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7aWOlMhFZM

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IB.V

[davidI]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Wow... RIM has become a joke. Or rather, the stock market in general has become a joke. It's like walking on eggshells. Does anyone own some RIM? I remember last September I bought some at 48$, sold a few months later for a decent profit. Wanted to buy again when it was in the low 50ies but never did (actually I think I did but got burned on a 5% drop the next day after Q1 results and pulled out). It just keeps falling off one cliff after the other.

I flipped RIM a couple times for quick profit back when it was trading in the 50s and refuse to even go near it now. I don't think fundamentals or technicals mean anything for that stock anymore...way too much volatility. I think it's pretty much become Nokia or Motorola. I foresee Apple and Google being the big market players in this market in the future.

Something tells me that Google has the security / encryption capabilities to become the new corporate provider for phones and tablets. Apple products are finding their way into the corporate food chaing as well.

[davidI]

Anyone thinking about picking up some stocks? Canadian Oil stocks seem to be decent value right now.

CNQ took a major hit. COS's dividend is looking pretty sweet too. I just can't get a pulse on things....are people really fearing another recession or will the fear continue to get worse? When everyone thinks it's going to get worse I'm going to start buying...just hard to "feel" the Canadian markets from the UAE!

[Neil4Speed]

Originally posted by davidI
Anyone thinking about picking up some stocks? Canadian Oil stocks seem to be decent value right now.

CNQ took a major hit. COS's dividend is looking pretty sweet too. I just can't get a pulse on things....are people really fearing another recession or will the fear continue to get worse? When everyone thinks it's going to get worse I'm going to start buying...just hard to "feel" the Canadian markets from the UAE!

I think yes.

http://business.financialpost.com/2011/09/19/future-shock-shackles-canadian-oil-stocks/

(might give you a bit of insight)

TLM is also very very low right now.

[davidI]

yea, I saw that article the other day. TLM has taken a shit kicking.
http://www.google.com//finance?chdnp=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1316030400000&chddm=264137&cmpto=TSE:CNQ;TSE:HSE;TSE:IMO;TSE:NXY;TSE:PBN;TSE:PWT;TSE:SU;TSE:TLM;TSE:COS;TSE:CVE;TSE:ECA;TSE:CPG&cmptdms=0;0;0;0;0;0;0;0;0;0;0;0&q=TSE:CNQ,TSE:HSE,TSE:IMO,TSE:NXY,TSE:PBN,TSE:PMG,TSE:PWT,TSE:SU,TSE:TLM&ntsp=0

PBN, PWT & CPG have some pretty epic dividends at the moment. So tempting....

[997TT]

added 400 shares of POT and 500 shares of TCK.B jsut now.

see what happens.

[Feruk]

Everything's so up in the air. I'm keeping my head down not doing much trading. A company's gotta be amazing for me to put any cash in right now. Not selling much either though. Only one I'm looking at getting into is MKP. Love the trend.

I think TCK.B is still a little too rich (maybe can get it for $25 in a month), PBN is just a really lousy company you should stay far far away from (crappy results have dictated the drop, not the market, might have to cut dividend), and I stay away from CPG because I don't like the way they pay their dividend.

[bitteeinbit]

I'm in the same boat as you. I don't dare touch anything. I'm still holding onto ONE position (since I've scaled out of everything else this summer). Now that I have more time I'll start going over some stocks again. For sure there have been good opportunities and more to come, but it's quite volatile so definitely not easy for non-pros.

[davidI]

yea, I'm in an all-cash position still. Don't have the time to trade this volatility as much as I'd like or do the research due to my damn masters thesis.

I've been watching Enbridge for ages...it seems like no matter what happens it keeps trending up and paying a dividend. I wish I'd bought it a couple years ago but what are people's thoughts now.

I'm also watching the DAX. There's an ETF on the NYSE that tracks the DAX apparently. I don't think Europe has hit bottom yet, but when it does, the DAX could be a nice index play.

[max_boost]

I'm just not very confident in the markets right now. My gut tells me another huge shakeup is necessary before we can get back on track, whatever that is.

[davidI]

Originally posted by max_boost
I'm just not very confident in the markets right now. My gut tells me another huge shakeup is necessary before we can get back on track, whatever that is.

Thing is, if most people are feeling this way, it's the time to be buying!!!

Fear = Buy
Greed = Sell

[ZenOps]

Hang Seng down 900 points.

Look for today to be a bloodbath on North American markets.

[davidI]

Pretty much....look at these futures:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937

Oil down 4%
STOXX down 4%
FTSE down 4.7%
DAX down 4.3%

CDN$ down 4%

Happy to be in cash :D

[bigbadboss101]

0.969 Cdn$. Quite a drop the past 3 days or so.

[Redlyne_mr2]

Some good deals to be had today. Remember this is the short term investment thread.

[dimi]

I'm adding some CNQ. I've been waiting for $30 for a long time. Maybe a bit of SU too. Actually everything energy seems tempting.

Though in general I think the market trend is downwards, I think there is an opportunity here to make a few $.

[997TT]

I wish I was all cash. Gonna be working till I'm a fkn 150 yrs old.

[dimi]

Originally posted by 997TT
I wish I was all cash. Gonna be working till I'm a fkn 150 yrs old.

Look on the bright side. Everything is cheaper now if you want to double down :D

[997TT]

Haha. Yes it is. But I have about 10% cash as % of my portfolio.

[davidI]

Originally posted by 997TT
Haha. Yes it is. But I have about 10% cash as % of my portfolio.

Have you been making some good swing trades on the year?

I've been sitting on 100% cash all year. I've been hating myself for it thinking I was missing out on a good rally....but I've been pretty stoked these last few months. May get that nice buying opportunity I stupidly missed out on in Q4 '08 (I was either piling everything into the markets or buying a house...I bought the house....only to move overseas again. FUUUUUUUUUUU!)

Just gotta wait for things to turn around and then start playing the swing on the long-term bull.

[997TT]

Ya I've done okay on a few 5-10% swings. Overall I'm down though for sure as the majority of my holdings are longer term (so they are getting killed). Ill swing trade 50-100k. The rest sit in stocks that I just hold like a fkn idiot. Lol

[davidI]

Haha, well your swing portfolio is my entire portfolio so you're doing fine. I'm just starting to play with 6-digits.

I'm thinking of slowly moving in on some dividend stocks as long-term holds and just keeping $20-30k to "trade" with - just gotta find the right opportunity.

It's such a fucked up market at the moment...I think I'll wait a couple weeks to see what happens. After all, things tend to drop faster than they gain...

[997TT]

totally onboard with your strategy. Want to pick up as much ppl, trp, enb and others .... maybe cpg as i can.

when stocks like Tck/imn get pummelled, the dividend plays go down 2%. lol. thats considerd a buying opportunity.

[ZenOps]

Canadian dollar down two and a half cents.

I think this is the final sign before the US tries to strengthen the US dollar to outrageous strength before they buy up everything they can to shelter themselves for the big depression.

[davidI]

Originally posted by ZenOps
Canadian dollar down two and a half cents.

I think this is the final sign before the US tries to strengthen the US dollar to outrageous strength before they buy up everything they can to shelter themselves for the big depression.

I'm surprised you haven't posted anything about the proposed legislation to slap duties on any countries that artificially undervalue their currencies *cough* China *cough*

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Redlyne_mr2
Some good deals to be had today. Remember this is the short term investment thread.

I think there will be even better deals to be had if you wait a bit longer. :devil: :rofl:

[dawerks]

'Sell in May and go away'. I traded the Japan Tsunami because it had to be done..

I used to wait for Sept/Aug to buy back, but got burned in Oct08. Now I wait for Nov/Dec.

It really cuts down on the stress of trading as it's only part time now and most gains seem to happen from Nov to Feb/Mar anyways.

That's for LONGS...

...if you're shorting (I did after 10 years!) then summer is the time to do it!!

[dimi]

Allright, time to close out the positions, too scared. Might as well blow the $92 on lunch. :rofl:

[roopi]

Picked up some COS today. Like the yield and hopefully it doesn't go much lower now.

[Neil4Speed]

Suncor down 7% now. 52 week low (obviously), and now coming very close to October 08 crash levels. Less than Mar 09.

[997TT]

just added Su at $26.12 and CPG in the mid $38's
let the losing continue....

going for lunch now ... scope out some buildings where one can jump

[Meback]

whats everyone thpught on oil... sitting at 80 right now

[Redlyne_mr2]

Originally posted by 997TT
just added Su at $26.12 and CPG in the mid $38's
let the losing continue....

going for lunch now ... scope out some buildings where one can jump

whats wrong with you? it's one day of trading :rofl:

Oil is going to probably settle in the 70/80 for a little while, the US will buy it while it's cheap and then we'll start to see it increase in price as reserves run low again. Everyone always acts like these fluctuations aren't on purpose. It's hard for the US to do business with Canada at $100/barrel and it's tough for Canada to do business with the US when our dollar is stronger.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Meback]

haha^ connacher... fuckkk dude meeee tooo... down 60% on that one, Have been debating if i should add too it, but fuk that, i m too scared, and to stubborn to sell.

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Redlyne_mr2


whats wrong with you? it's one day of trading :rofl:

Oil is going to probably settle in the 70/80 for a little while, the US will buy it while it's cheap and then we'll start to see it increase in price as reserves run low again. Everyone always acts like these fluctuations aren't on purpose. It's hard for the US to do business with Canada at $100/barrel and it's tough for Canada to do business with the US when our dollar is stronger.

Hey bro, don't forget about Europe. They are gonna fuck us all over. :rofl:

[ZenOps]

Originally posted by davidI


I'm surprised you haven't posted anything about the proposed legislation to slap duties on any countries that artificially undervalue their currencies *cough* China *cough*

Its just perspective.

China would say that the US artificially manipulates their currency. Which is probably more true than China manipulating its currency.

The US electronic dollar is worth 1/3rd its 2008 value afterall, that is currency manipulation far and beyond what any nation (China or otherwise) has done in the last decade, with notable exception of Zimbabwe, who also printed up extra dollars.

Its doubly brutal for Canadian stock holders today. If you are scared enough to sell (and you should be scared) you came back to a dollar that has 2.5 cents less purchasing power than yesterday.

Add: If China were manipulating its currency, both the US and Canadian dollar would be affected in near the same way. That the CDN is crashing against the US is almost a sure sign that its the US that is doing the manipulating (at least today anyhow)

Besides, I thought that with Keynesian economic theory - the US govt is *supposed* to intervene in the markets from time to time.

[max_boost]

Still waiting for 10,000 TSX. lol :devil:

[ZenOps]

I want to see if the Canadian dollar can lose 300 basis points to the US in one day. I don't know if that has ever happened before?

The Swiss franc lost 10 cents to the Euro in a day.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[dawerks]

I bought GLD on the dip. I should've waited for 160 but this is my 1/10 position.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Meback
haha^ connacher... fuckkk dude meeee tooo... down 60% on that one, Have been debating if i should add too it, but fuk that, i m too scared, and to stubborn to sell.
With every dollar oil drops, Connacher gets closer to becoming insolvent. Going straight to zero IMO.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[davidI]

Originally posted by ZenOps

Add: If China were manipulating its currency, both the US and Canadian dollar would be affected in near the same way. That the CDN is crashing against the US is almost a sure sign that its

It's more that despite the problems in the US, the USD & treasuries are still a safe haven.

Hell, people were even selling gold to go into the US$ & treasuries.

China does undervalue its currency and has basically admitted it in the past by slowly raising rates. Canadian government has historically tried to keep the Cdn$ low too...helps the manufacturers in Ontario.

[davidI]

I'm spending the weekend putting together a watch / buy list...finally got access to some good analyst reports so time to do some research!

So far I'm looking at:
SU, CNQ, COS, WSX, TD, and maybe a couple of indexes for diversificaiton. I like ENB & CPG but they both still seem expensive.

[ZenOps]

Originally posted by davidI


It's more that despite the problems in the US, the USD & treasuries are still a safe haven.

Hell, people were even selling gold to go into the US$ & treasuries.

China does undervalue its currency and has basically admitted it in the past by slowly raising rates. Canadian government has historically tried to keep the Cdn$ low too...helps the manufacturers in Ontario.

I don't know if the US dollar is really all that much of a safe haven. When you sell stock, most often you come back to a US dollar.

The derivatives market is $600 Trillion or so, even if 0.1% of it is converted back into US dollars on forced (margin raised) or panic selling - it should naturally prop up the dollar as long as people do not convert to another currency - like the CDN or Swiss Franc.

Since the Franc is now pegged to the Euro, no currency is completely pegged to metals anymore.

Silver down 10% again today. Hammertime!

[davidI]

Originally posted by ZenOps

I don't know if the US dollar is really all that much of a safe haven. When you sell stock, most often you come back to a US dollar.

Does not compute. Sell risky assets to be in cash, because it's safer. Sounds like a safe haven to me.

As you say, there are other currencies, but if you look at what's happened, people are going to the US$.

[ZenOps]

If I could buy stocks with gold, and then sell them and get gold back I would. The closest thing to this used to be buy in Francs and then sell to get back Francs.

As is - there are so many US dollars out there "locked" in stocks, that any generalized world selloff would automatically favor the US dollar.

A market crash has historically always favoured the US dollar (Gold usually treads water, and all other commodities including oil tank.)

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by davidI
I'm spending the weekend putting together a watch / buy list...finally got access to some good analyst reports so time to do some research!

So far I'm looking at:
SU, CNQ, COS, WSX, TD, and maybe a couple of indexes for diversificaiton. I like ENB & CPG but they both still seem expensive.

ENB might be expensive but it's been really resilient. I've mentioned EN many times before as it's been one of my core holdings for a while. I've swing traded it so many times because it's too easy using technicals. I would buy everytme it reached the 50ma and sell a little while later. I got rid of the last bit in early August and thought I was really smart when it crashed shortly after on one of those "bad days". Then I didn't feel so smart when it rebounded within like a weak. I've yet to buy some more as I'm a bit jittery, but I also have my eye on THI. I've traded it once over the beginning of the summer and made a few bucks. It's another stock which seems rather resilient though lately it's been pretty volatile. I want to jump in, just maybe not on a Friday :D I personally don't like SU much as it doesn't fit my trading style.
Either way I think I'll stay on the sidelines for a bit.

[davidI]

Originally posted by ZenOps
If I could buy stocks with gold, and then sell them and get gold back I would.

What's stopping you? It's just an extra trade...

Though, had you done this, you would have lost money yesterday compared to being in the US$. People are selling gold to meet their margin calls.

[ZenOps]

Adding conversion costs on every transaction is too expensive. Depending on country, the buy and sell of gold is also taxable.

Besides, you cannot sell a stock and directly get gold. Most of the time there is a four day settlement period in the currency bought in.

In four days, depending on currency and/or metal, you could have lost 40% pretty.

[dawerks]

GLD hit 161 and I bought a bunch more, I knew it yesterday, but that's MR MARKET! Bought some YRI as well.

[davidI]

No settlement period on margin accounts. If you're wanting physical gold sure there will be costs, but an ETF with a discount broker will have low commissions.

[Magic-8-Ball]

Hey is anyone watching silver these days. Man what a drop!. I am thinking now might be the time to buy? Anyone have any thoughts?

I haven't heard much from Silverrex...anyone know where he is at these days? I am sure he would have an opinion.

M8ball

[davidI]

Interesting Article:

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/09/201199175046520396.html

Back to my debate with ZenOps about the US$ strengthening and how the Chinese Yuan is artificially low.

This could also be bullish for Gold & Gold stocks.



China is shifting some of its massive foreign holdings into gold and away from the US dollar, undermining the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency, according to a recently released WikiLeaks cable.

"They [the US and Europe] intend to weaken gold's function as an international reserve currency. They don’t want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the US dollar or Euro," stated the 2009 cable, quoting Chinese Radio International. "China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold."

The cable is titled "China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with one stone". Taken together with recent policy announcements from Chinese banking officials, it may signal moves by China to eventually replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Last week, European business officials announced that China plans to make its currency, the yuan, fully convertible for trading on international markets by 2015. Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of China's central bank, said the offshore market for the yuan is "developing faster than we had imagined" but there is no definitive timetable for making the currency fully convertible. Presently, the yuan cannot be easily converted into other currencies, because of government restrictions.

China's gold holdings are small compared to other major economies. It has 1,054 tonnes, the sixth-largest reserves in the world, according to data from the World Gold Council.

Dollar's dilemma

Buying gold and allowing the yuan to be traded freely would weaken the US dollar's dominance as the international reserve currency. The move would have major implications, making it more expensive for the US government to borrow money and to run perpetual trade and budget deficits.

"The US is used to having the position of having the key reserve currency, but others are eager to replace it," said Josh Aizenman, a professor of economics at the University of California and president of the International Economics and Finance Society.

As a reserve currency, the US dollar is the default for international transactions. If, for example, a South Korean company wants to buy wine from Chile, chances are they will carry out the transaction in dollars. Both companies must then purchase dollars to conduct their business, leading to greater demand. The value of global commodities, such as oil, is also generally demarcated in US dollars.

Being a reserve currency allows the US to borrow at low interest rates, as central banks around the world are eager to buy US government debt. "Any country that can finance its expenditures by printing money or selling bonds is essentially getting a free lunch," Aizenman told Al Jazeera.

With China's apparent change of heart, that "free lunch" now might come with a hefty tab. Given the massive US trade deficit, average Americans might be sent to the restaurant's kitchen to wash dishes if the dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency.

"China, until recently, was focusing on buying the US dollar through bonds," Aizeman said. Since the economic crisis, the US dollar has dropped compared to other major currencies, particularly the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Brazilian real. This leaves China in a bind, analysts said.

Currency reserves

In March 2011, China held $3.04tn US dollars in reserves, Xinhua news agenecy reported. It is the largest holder of US treasuries, or government debt, with $1.166tn as of June 30, 2011, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Thus, major devaluation of the dollar would hurt China, as it would be left holding wads of worthless paper.

"If you owe the bank $100, that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100m, that's the bank's problem," American industrialist Jean Paul Getty once remarked, in a parable that sums up China's predicament.

"China is locked into a position where they cannot sell a big portion of their dollar reserves overnight without hurting themselves," Aizenman said. "It is too late for now to diversify rapidly the stock they have already accumulated."

The answer: Buy gold. Everyone seems to be doing it. The value of the glistening commodity, useless for most practical purposes, increased almost 400 per cent, from less than $500 an ounce in 2005 to about $1,900 in September.

"Gold has risen in value because of uncertainty in the world economy," said Mark Weisbrot, the co-director of the Centre for Economic and Policy Research, a think-tank in Washington. "Normally, gold would rise due to high inflation. It is a store of value that increases if there is inflation. But in this case it is going up because nobody knows where else to put their money."

In the WikiLeaks cable, China alleged that "the US and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold", but neither Weisbrot or Aizenman think such a policy is taking place or even possible.

Presently, China places strict controls on its currency, limiting foreigners from doing business in the yuan or trading it on foreign exchange markets. That could change in the next five years, according to governor Xiaochuan's recent announcement.

By owning such large reserves of US currency, and through controlling the yuan, China can keep its currency lower than it would be if it floated freely. This makes Chinese exports cheaper.

The relationship, in which Chinese investment in US government bonds allows low interest rates for Americans to buy Chinese products, has worked well for the last 15 years. In 2010, the US ran a $273.1bn trade deficit with China.

"We pay our debts in dollars so we can print money to pay our international debts," Weisbrot told Al Jazeera. Because of the dollar's status as a reserve currency, the US "can run trade deficits indefinitely" while borrowing internationally without serious repercussions, giving the world's largest economy a "big advantage", he said.

If gold, the yuan, or a combination of other currencies replaced the dollar, the US would lose that advantage.
Without a replacement in the near term, nothing will replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency in the next five years at least. But nothing lasts forever. "When they [China] want the dollar to fall, they will let it," Weisbrot said. "The dollar will fall eventually but that could be a long time away."

The fate of the dollar notwithstanding, a separate WikiLeaks cable outlines some of the broader ambiguities of the world's most important economic relationship, or "ChinAmerica", as it has been dubbed by historian Niall Ferguson.

"No one in 1979 would have predicted that China would become the United States' most important relationship in thirty years," the cable stated. "No one today can predict with certainty where our relations with Beijing will be thirty years hence."

[Mr_John]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball
Hey is anyone watching silver these days. Man what a drop!. I am thinking now might be the time to buy? Anyone have any thoughts?

I haven't heard much from Silverrex...anyone know where he is at these days? I am sure he would have an opinion.

M8ball

Silver @ 26. YIKES!Probably won't hold this support either.

[SilverRex]

So my alt bearish count for silver trigger under 30 and gold towards 1500 became a reality.(the key was breaking below 35 which is exactly what happen in 2008 in comparison) Mentally I think silver at around 26-27 is really a good price to get in since if this multi year gold run is to continue, silver should not break under 21 or much more serious notion is ahead. there fore position traders would target the 26-27 area as a extremely good risk to reward entry and keeping the low 20s in mind to add to one's position.

looking at gold, in 2011 it has really gone up too fast and without much for a correction. Smart traders would wait for such opportunity and look for entry.

short term gold has definitely turn very bearish, but on the daily chart we see gold still remains in a newly form up channel. I would only consider the current bull market in metals to be over if we head below 1450 and especially 1400.

Until then, I see just like I am sure everyone also agrees this down leg should comprise of 5 waves. Gold may have achieved a wave .iii bottom this morning and a much needed bounce will start the week off giving us wave .iv, I suspect the low will be retested if not near 1500, ideally I want to see a divergence to stoch just like what we saw in Oct of 2008.

For bears, they would want create a H&S on the daily and breaking the neckline under 1500 which could target 1100-1200.

for bulls, if gold can reclaim above 1700 this week, then perhaps the lows may have been set.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold092611.jpg

[Type_S1]

Originally posted by Paul
my average share price on Aber was 16bux, been holding for a couple of years. I think one of the companies is getting ready to buy it

Is Aber still around? Didn't they name change to Harry Winston?

[Magic-8-Ball]

Silverrex,

Any thoughts on where natural gas is headed these days?




Originally posted by SilverRex
So my alt bearish count for silver trigger under 30 and gold towards 1500 became a reality.(the key was breaking below 35 which is exactly what happen in 2008 in comparison) Mentally I think silver at around 26-27 is really a good price to get in since if this multi year gold run is to continue, silver should not break under 21 or much more serious notion is ahead. there fore position traders would target the 26-27 area as a extremely good risk to reward entry and keeping the low 20s in mind to add to one's position.

looking at gold, in 2011 it has really gone up too fast and without much for a correction. Smart traders would wait for such opportunity and look for entry.

short term gold has definitely turn very bearish, but on the daily chart we see gold still remains in a newly form up channel. I would only consider the current bull market in metals to be over if we head below 1450 and especially 1400.

Until then, I see just like I am sure everyone also agrees this down leg should comprise of 5 waves. Gold may have achieved a wave .iii bottom this morning and a much needed bounce will start the week off giving us wave .iv, I suspect the low will be retested if not near 1500, ideally I want to see a divergence to stoch just like what we saw in Oct of 2008.

For bears, they would want create a H&S on the daily and breaking the neckline under 1500 which could target 1100-1200.

for bulls, if gold can reclaim above 1700 this week, then perhaps the lows may have been set.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/gold092611.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Magic-8-Ball
Silverrex,

Any thoughts on where natural gas is headed these days?





if you recall my last assessment on NG is calling for low 3s with a extreme bearish case of retesting the 2.x's

however I believe the key to watch is where oil will land.

if oil can hold around 75 and solidify its bottom, then NG should not have too much down side risk, the longer it stays in the 3s, the higher the chance that it is only wait for the right timing before it begins to catch up or move in relation to oil

[bitteeinbit]

Figured I would post a few picks:

First is DOL. Some migth remember me having this several months back. I'd held it for a long time but starting in December last year, it stagnated till April. I sold it off. Now it's been doing REALLY good lately. I think the whole "economic doom' is benefiting them. For those who don't know, Dolorama is a big dollar store company in Quebec. they have a really sophisticated inventory system and lot's of stores. they're always packed and if the economy goes to shit, they'll probably be the type of business that profits from it. Basically I wasn't patient enough with this one (I made money, but could have made way more) and I've been waiting for a down day to get in but it just doesn't seem to want to have one!

Another one I like is THI. It's been so resilient (though volatile) lately that I think it's a strong pick. People still like their morning coffee even if the economy goes down.

Lastly, I want to short AC.B. It's been down for a while, since gas prices rose up last year. Now it's broken the 200ma and just keeps falling. Airlines always do bad in bad economic times so i think it's a safe bet. I might want to wait a bit before jumping in though as it's fallen quite a bit in the past few trading days. But I keep kicking myself for not shorting it earlier. I thought about it early this year and it crossed my mind several times since, including last Friday!

I'm just posting this to see how things will turn out. I'm too chicken to actually trade right now so I'll just "paper trading" on beyond for a little while :burnout:

[bitteeinbit]

Man it's pissing me off... As I write this DOL keeps going higher. This morning it was up just a tad now it's up over 2%. Momentum traders must be jumping in on this one.

[ZenOps]

Check out the extreme optimism and selflessness of this Eurozone market trader interviewed on the BBC.

aC19fEqR5bA

Yes, armageddon is a traders wet dream.

[dawerks]

Made out great on YRI, not so good on GLD. Not selling yet as the gold stock correction was a little overdone. Eaasy money.

[997TT]

sold my 500 SU for a tad over $1500 gain
thank god for this spike...haha. gonna try and reduce a few more positions.

[Zewind]

Did he just say invest in the US dollar? :facepalm:

[SilverRex]

Lets look at silver today.

Right now since my last chart on silver silver has come down 5 waves, counter corrected to 44 also in 5 waves, and now I expect another 5 wave completion with a sub wave .v down that should attampt to retest the low under 30 if now briefly breaking below 26

an obvious declining channel could now be seen. Having tested the price of 50 dollars which is really a 30+ year double top. if silver was to break the green line, it could set up an ultimate bullish signal and begin to push silver towards 75-100 dollar simply based on the depth of the cup.

until then one can only watch and see if silver does form a bottom around 26. Even if silver does head lower, the rise from 8 to 50 dollar, the 61% fibo support lies right at 21 dollars. I do not believe silver should ever break below 21 dollars. This would mean any price between 21-28 offers quite the opportunity of a second life time (imo)

GSR ratio topped around 60, which is getting very close invalidating a wave .v down possibility. I give GSR at best to around 61.58, if broken to the upside. could seriously increase the deflationary pressure and may even match what we saw in 2008 as a double dip recession.

http://i278.photobucket.com/albums/kk118/genmaster/silver092711.jpg

[dawerks]

All I can say is, WOOT WOOT.

Wall of worry, shattered. For now. :)

[SilverRex]

also dollar index while appears bullish breaking above 77, stoch has a hint of negative divergence and if dollar falls back below 76.36 watch out, it could ignite a world wide market rebound