Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Feruk]

Originally posted by CMW403
What do you guys think of REL.V?
I recently picked this one up at $0.24 and quite a bit more at $0.305. The reason it's down is because (a) people had crazy expectations when I started watching it ~2 years ago and the stock traded at 3000,000/flowing boe, (b) management hasn't done a great job communicating to investors. I like the story quite a bit and fairly value it today at $0.42, making it 35% undervalued TODAY. You get ALL the upside for free with this stock.

Their debt/CF is good at 0.78, revenue and CF are alright, stock trading at 74,000/flowing boe which is CRAZY for a 100% oil company, and have a great land position in Manitoba. In the last year, the stock's fallen from ~0.45ish to $0.3 while they've TRIPLED production, further deliniated their Bakken light oil play, and started waterflooding. Only downsides are they're tiny, have not yet proven up the size of their play, and are wasting money on a small non-operated JV project in Montana looking for Bakken there.

This and WFE (Westfire) I think are the two most undervaled oil & gas juniors I've looked at in the last year or so, and I personally don't care for Westfire's assets or management. But what do I know? People keep buying MASSIVELY overvaled stocks like LEG and thus far leaving REL alone.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by msommers


I'd say that is a good estimate of the core drilling season.

What else are you looking at (industry/sectors)?

Safer stuff for the most part; I've got too many oil/gold juniors.

Been looking at Canadian banks; BNS to be specific and maybe one more. TD perhaps? I'm gonna see which I like the most as I'd rather have two of these with good yeilds than the shitty bank and insurance ETF which yeilds dick all. Any input here would be great.

Also looking at liquor and cigarette companies. Specifically Phillip Morris International (PM:US), waiting for pullback. These guys are just the international branch of Phillip Morris, so you get 3rd world exposure along with a product that's always in demand. I can't find a single cheap liquor stock though.

Also looking at commodities. Uranium for long term hold, specifically Cameco (CCO). It's been beat to shit, but in the long run uranium will do good I think. Water for medium/long term, specifically Claymore S&P Global Water ETF (CWW).

[themack89]

Originally posted by Feruk

Also looking at commodities. Uranium for long term hold, specifically Cameco (CCO). It's been beat to shit, but in the long run uranium will do good I think. Water for medium/long term, specifically Claymore S&P Global Water ETF (CWW).

If you would like a little more faith, Andrew Hall (Citigroups Ex-$100million trader) picked up a nice little basket of Uranium plays back in Nov 2011. I can't speak for his derivative positions though.

[Hi-Psi]

Most of the Uranium stocks I have or have been watching have done very nicely over the last few weeks.

[Feruk]

Yep, on news that India and China plans to increase the amount of reactors they're building. I've even heard on BNN an analyst talking about how Japan might build one or two more reactors. Long term there aren't really any alternatives.

[roopi]

TLM already bounced up 3 percent. Going to stick this out a bit longer though.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by Feruk

I recently picked this one up at $0.24 and quite a bit more at $0.305. The reason it's down is because (a) people had crazy expectations when I started watching it ~2 years ago and the stock traded at 3000,000/flowing boe, (b) management hasn't done a great job communicating to investors. I like the story quite a bit and fairly value it today at $0.42, making it 35% undervalued TODAY. You get ALL the upside for free with this stock.

Their debt/CF is good at 0.78, revenue and CF are alright, stock trading at 74,000/flowing boe which is CRAZY for a 100% oil company, and have a great land position in Manitoba. In the last year, the stock's fallen from ~0.45ish to $0.3 while they've TRIPLED production, further deliniated their Bakken light oil play, and started waterflooding. Only downsides are they're tiny, have not yet proven up the size of their play, and are wasting money on a small non-operated JV project in Montana looking for Bakken there.

This and WFE (Westfire) I think are the two most undervaled oil & gas juniors I've looked at in the last year or so, and I personally don't care for Westfire's assets or management. But what do I know? People keep buying MASSIVELY overvaled stocks like LEG and thus far leaving REL alone.

Thanks man

[CMW403]

Any opinions on PXX.TO? I have been wanting to get into this stock for awhile but I was acting like a pussy bitch and since then it's up about a dollar. Should I just bite the bullet now or wait?

And just to let everybody know, I'll be leeching off of your knowledge and contributing nothing to this thread in the next 6 months because I'm just starting out. By next years time I'll be throwing out quality tips and analysis, I promise.:thumbsup:

[msommers]

For you guys with Questrade, how long did it take for the money to arrive in your account? I made them a payee and transfered funds that way. Did that Friday and got an email today saying my application was complete and account is active. Able to log into the questraderWEB but I don't have any money yet!

Also, I've been keeping an eye on PGD.TO. I'm a little skeptical given how much they have slid though but I've saw a presentation by them during a mineral conference and at school and seemed to have their shit together.

[whiskas]

Depends on the account type. TFSA accounts are usually within 24-48 hours. RRSP accounts can take up to 5 business days.

[dawerks]

Got stopped on CMM/WTG long ago. Lesson learned; DON'T TRUST RUSSIANS or, there's no sure thing in the market except for Canadian bank stocks :)

The market has been on a tear lately. I have a bunch of TD that I bought in the 70's. I'm thinking of selling (it's not going to double), but now or wait??

I like the divi, but something tells me the market is going to tank and TD goes back to 75 ish again.

Why shouldn't I just sell and repeat? Or do I hold for a bit longer?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[997TT]

You should see if quest will reimburse you. Anytime I transferred accounts I got reimbursed the fee. G

[s_havinga]

Originally posted by CMW403
Any opinions on PXX.TO? I have been wanting to get into this stock for awhile but I was acting like a pussy bitch and since then it's up about a dollar. Should I just bite the bullet now or wait?

And just to let everybody know, I'll be leeching off of your knowledge and contributing nothing to this thread in the next 6 months because I'm just starting out. By next years time I'll be throwing out quality tips and analysis, I promise.:thumbsup:

Personally I think PXX will probably dip again to under $5, I was just debating whether or not to sell when I saw it mentioned in this thread. Still not sure what I am going to do...

[Feruk]

Originally posted by CMW403
Any opinions on PXX.TO? I have been wanting to get into this stock for awhile but I was acting like a pussy bitch and since then it's up about a dollar. Should I just bite the bullet now or wait?


Too expensive. I'd look at them at $3.90, but if they ever went there, they'd drop below their $4.15ish support, which would make me wanna not buy them. I don't see an entry point where you don't overpay. Not saying that they'll go down but I like companies with free upside. For me, I'd look elsewhere.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by s_havinga


Personally I think PXX will probably dip again to under $5, I was just debating whether or not to sell when I saw it mentioned in this thread. Still not sure what I am going to do...



Originally posted by Feruk


Too expensive. I'd look at them at $3.90, but if they ever went there, they'd drop below their $4.15ish support, which would make me wanna not buy them. I don't see an entry point where you don't overpay. Not saying that they'll go down but I like companies with free upside. For me, I'd look elsewhere.

Thanks guys.

Any other Junior O&G companies you guys looking at?

What do you think of Aroway Energy??

[msommers]

Been looking at Zargon. 8% yield too.

[Feruk]

Haven't looked at Aroway since September/October. They don't have anything overly exciting IMO. Plus they're not an operator and sometimes pay up to 75% to earn 50%. I know some big oil & gas investors love them though.

I'm looking at lots, but don't think oil & gas juniors are the place to be right now so I'm shrinking my position there. I'm only holding Reliable Energy (REL.V), Arcan Energy (ARN.T), and Whitecap Energy (WCP.T) in the junior sector. The third being my big winner, but also close to fully valued.

[max_boost]

Nat gas finally turning the corner? 3 up days in a row haha

[Feruk]

Any thoughts on CWW? Clarymore S&P Global Water ETF in Canadian dollars? I'm loving the trend.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[dj_honda]

Originally posted by Feruk


I'm looking at lots, but don't think oil & gas juniors are the place to be right now so I'm shrinking my position there. I'm only holding Reliable Energy (REL.V), Arcan Energy (ARN.T), and Whitecap Energy (WCP.T) in the junior sector. The third being my big winner, but also close to fully valued.

It's Arcan Resources, ARN.V

I hold all three of these as well

[kaput]

.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by CMW403





Thanks guys.

Any other Junior O&G companies you guys looking at?

What do you think of Aroway Energy??

DTX.TO
WCP.TO
TOL.V
STO.TO

[Meback]

Oil has been hovering around 98-101... any predictions on which way it is going to go?

[msommers]

Originally posted by in*10*se


DTX.TO
WCP.TO
TOL.V
STO.TO

I like the look of Spartan's plays. Whitecap may have a lot of potential with their Cardium and Vikings plays but they've been on the up for awhile.

I've been looking at Second Wave Energy too. I did a lot of research on them when I did a summer project but I'm still not entirely convinced. Maybe if they take a big dip it would be worthwhile, but they have spent a considerable amount of money in Judy Creek.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by Meback
Oil has been hovering around 98-101... any predictions on which way it is going to go?

up up up!

[msommers]

What sites/analysts do you guys follow for research? Do you pay a subscription or one-time report fee?

[davidI]

Originally posted by msommers
What sites/analysts do you guys follow for research? Do you pay a subscription or one-time report fee?

timingthemarket.ca
equityclock.com
I've got access to CanAccord Genuity Research through a friend
Just signed up for a TDWater House account for their research and get a lot of the RBC stuff through a friend.

I'm actually working on launching a blog with my stock picks and analysis. Not a lot of content yet but http://TSXTrader.com

Nailed my first recommendation (WSX.V), a few days before the sale was announced) and hope to put more time into the site and my picks once I finish my MSc.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI


timingthemarket.ca
equityclock.com
I've got access to CanAccord Genuity Research through a friend
Just signed up for a TDWater House account for their research and get a lot of the RBC stuff through a friend.

I'm actually working on launching a blog with my stock picks and analysis. Not a lot of content yet but http://TSXTrader.com

Nailed my first recommendation (WSX.V), a few days before the sale was announced) and hope to put more time into the site and my picks once I finish my MSc.

Nice work, now when does crescent buy Reliable?

[Hi-Psi]

WTG slumping back now that buddy isn't buying...

Fuck I wish this company would just figure its shit out so I could get out of it haha.

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


Nice work, now when does crescent buy Reliable? I think CPG already bought an interest in some of their wells. I'll take a look if I have a chance in the next few days.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by davidI
I think CPG already bought an interest in some of their wells. I'll take a look if I have a chance in the next few days.
They have a minority interest in the wells, done financing for REL, and at one point even owned something like 20% of the company. If they can prove up a bunch more sections, it wouldn't be long. But I think the infilling is smart. That the stock is still at only $0.29 is a crime.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Feruk

They have a minority interest in the wells, done financing for REL, and at one point even owned something like 20% of the company. If they can prove up a bunch more sections, it wouldn't be long. But I think the infilling is smart. That the stock is still at only $0.29 is a crime.

I'd say it depends on how the wells do then. Let the Jr. develop the play taking on most of the risk while you get well information with your minority share and buy them out if it proves productive.

I haven't done much reading on REL - were they in the Shaunovan or Beaverhill Lake? Can't recall? If it's Beaverhill Lake then I think the play still needs some time / drilling before it's confirmed as economic.

[davidI]

^ CPG also bought several minority interests in Beaverhill Lake if I remember correctly so they have a few choices in that area.

I'm looking more at Dodsland Viking companies at the moment...looks like they may start downspacing to 16 wells/section soon without much communication / pressure loss between wells, which will effectively double well locations and recoverables. I need more time for this shit. Flying to Germany on Saturday. Can't wait until this damn MSc is over....

[Feruk]

Naw REL explores the Bakken/Three Forks play in Manitoba. Also a small WI partner on some drills in the Bakken in Montana, but these have not turned out. I think their value is 100% their Bakken/Three Forks Montana play. Kirkela is the name of the area I believe. They've got two townships pretty nicely proven up and exploring two more. They've seen some encouraging results waterflooding as well. You're 100% right about CPG waiting for them to prove up a wider area in my opinion though. That's always been their strategy. Spin something out or invest in a small company, buy it up when it's proven up but still has tonnes of drilling room. My only concern is HUGE cross trading in the last month.

I'm actually very familiar with the Dodsland Viking play. I made some pretty good money trading Novus before but had to dump after they missed a quarter. Problem with these juniors is nobody wants to lend them the type of money to allow them to grow at an accelerated pace. Cash flow constrained with relatively low IP wells compared to other formations. It's been about a year since I looked in Dodsland area though. Compass recently got bought for dirt cheap by WCP which I own, so I've limited my exposure to Dodsland through WCP. Feel free to share any interesting names though.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by davidI
^ CPG also bought several minority interests in Beaverhill Lake if I remember correctly so they have a few choices in that area.

Yep Arcan. Holding that one as well. :)

[davidI]

Just took a quick look at REL. Not sure where I'd seen their name before but anyways, yea, possibly a speculative buy. I'll want to put more time into it but I can see picking up some risk shares.

Huge potential net backs, though I expect OPEX is going to pick up in that area. Just checked out a quick presentation from 2011 and the thing that's definitely lacking is production data. They planned to drill 15 wells in 2011...so without doing too much research (and assuming this hasn't been released yet) I would expect them to get a bit of a pop if they're constantly flowing 50 bpd / well. Maybe be able to push that up with some EOR to 75-100 boed. I think they're still only allowed 1hz/LSD as well....not sure if this area can be down spaced or if the reservoir would accept higher drilling density.

CPG has a 25% non-op W.I. so you can definitely see them just waiting for the reservoir to be proven up, and if it is, REL is a good take-out candidate. Nice land position in the Bakken.

This is just my 10 minute review. I like putting 5-8 hours into a company before making an actual recommendation so will hopefully find some time.

Macro market is showing some over-bought signals so I'm not in a huge rush...will try to find some more time to take a look in Germany.

Saw a tear sheet on Novus recently as well. Not super familiar with that Bakken area but something I'm taking an interest in. I still like WSX as a solid way to get in on Neil's NewCo at NAV before it's independently trading.

[Feruk]

Yep I think the reason REL is lacking is lack of clarity from management. Since I'm looking to at least double my cash, I'm ok holding it a while, so not too worried about it.

Novus is Dodsland Viking.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI
Just took a quick look at REL. Not sure where I'd seen their name before but anyways, yea, possibly a speculative buy. I'll want to put more time into it but I can see picking up some risk shares.

Huge potential net backs, though I expect OPEX is going to pick up in that area. Just checked out a quick presentation from 2011 and the thing that's definitely lacking is production data. They planned to drill 15 wells in 2011...so without doing too much research (and assuming this hasn't been released yet) I would expect them to get a bit of a pop if they're constantly flowing 50 bpd / well. Maybe be able to push that up with some EOR to 75-100 boed. I think they're still only allowed 1hz/LSD as well....not sure if this area can be down spaced or if the reservoir would accept higher drilling density.

CPG has a 25% non-op W.I. so you can definitely see them just waiting for the reservoir to be proven up, and if it is, REL is a good take-out candidate. Nice land position in the Bakken.

This is just my 10 minute review. I like putting 5-8 hours into a company before making an actual recommendation so will hopefully find some time.

Macro market is showing some over-bought signals so I'm not in a huge rush...will try to find some more time to take a look in Germany.

Saw a tear sheet on Novus recently as well. Not super familiar with that Bakken area but something I'm taking an interest in. I still like WSX as a solid way to get in on Neil's NewCo at NAV before it's independently trading.

I really appreciate the in-depth analysis, I'm learning a lot from your posts and your blog.

Do any of you own GEI.TO?

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


I really appreciate the in-depth analysis, I'm learning a lot from your posts and your blog.



Thanks. I'm trying to get more into trading again after a year of being too busy to do the necessary research and analysis. I always kept a journal of my charts / trades / logic etc. and figured I may as well start putting it online not only to track for myself, but share with others. Plus, a successful track-record should help support my opinions in the future.

I'm going to try and put up a quick post on CNQ later today. I've been watching it for a while, and these problems at Horizon have given it the hit I figure it needed for me to start accumulating a position.

[msommers]

Interesting release this morning:



WestJetters vote 91 per cent in favour of regional airline

Airline moves to aircraft selection as next step

CALGARY, Feb. 8, 2012 /CNW/ - WestJet today announced its employees have voted overwhelmingly - 91 per cent - in favour of the launch of a regional airline as a wholly owned subsidiary of WestJet.

"The opportunity presented to WestJetters has been very well received and I thank them for their input and consideration in this important matter," said Gregg Saretsky, WestJet President and CEO. "Clearly, WestJetters have recognized and embraced that the service we have provided for 16 years is in demand in even more communities across Canada. Bringing WestJet to these communities will benefit Canadians while providing increased shareholder value. We now look forward to planning the launch of this new airline as early as 2013."

"There are not many organizations that would put such a strategic decision in front of the employees for their input and approval," commented Antonio Faiola, WestJet Flight Attendant, Board Member and Chair of PACT, WestJet's employee association. "I am proud to work for a company that puts such tremendous importance on culture and the relationship with WestJetters."

With approval from the Board of Directors to proceed with implementation of a low-cost regional airline, WestJet will move to the next stage of planning by sending requests for proposals to two aircraft manufacturers: Bombardier for the Q400 NextGen and ATR for the ATR 72-600.

Caution regarding forward-looking statements
Certain information set forth in this news release, including information regarding the launch of a short-haul regional airline including timing for launching the airline and fleet type, our process for planning the launch of a short-haul regional airline, the goals relating to implementation of a short-haul regional airline and profitability thereof, the benefits to certain stakeholders from implementing a short-haul regional airline, and our strategy, contain forward-looking statements. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, some of which are beyond WestJet's control. These forward-looking statements are based on our current strategic plan, our analysis of the requirements for a short-haul regional airline including fleet type and size and network design, our experience in creating and growing a low-cost domestic airline, and currently available implementation plans, but may vary due to factors including, but not limited to, general economic conditions, the competitive environment for a short-haul regional airline, information obtained through stakeholder consultations, regulatory requirements, aircraft manufacturer information including aircraft supply proposals, and other factors and risks described in WestJet's public reports and filings. WestJet's public reports and filings are available on WestJet's profile at www.sedar.com. Readers are cautioned that undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements as actual results may vary materially from the forward-looking statements. WestJet does not undertake to update, correct or revise any forward-looking statements as a result of any new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable law.

About WestJet
WestJet is Canada's favourite airline, offering scheduled service throughout its 76-city North American and Caribbean network. Inducted into Canada's Most Admired Corporate Cultures Hall of Fame and named one of Canada's best employers, WestJet pioneered low-cost flying in Canada. WestJet offers increased legroom and leather seats on its modern fleet of 97 Boeing Next-Generation 737 aircraft. With future confirmed deliveries for an additional 38 aircraft through 2018, WestJet strives to be one of the five most successful international airlines in the world.

Connect with WestJet on Facebook at www.facebook.com/westjet
Follow WestJet on Twitter at www.twitter.com/westjet
Subscribe to WestJet on YouTube at www.youtube.com/westjet

For further information:

Media contact
Robert Palmer, Media Relations
Telephone: 1-888-WJ 4 NEWS (1-888-954-6397)
Email: [email protected].

[davidI]

I'd recommend you just stay the fuck away from investing in Airlines!!! Risky business....

http://buylikebuffett.com/buy-stocks-2/why-you-should-stay-away-from-airline-stocks/

[Akumaz]

anyone in or knows anything about BNP?
cant find a whole lot on them, but at 6% dividend!

[Sugarphreak]

...

[CMW403]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak




FAP has a higher dividend that pays monthly, super stable stock as well

Interesting, I am going to look into this company. Do you hold a position?

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Akumaz
anyone in or knows anything about BNP?
cant find a whole lot on them, but at 6% dividend!

Looks like:
62% gas - bad
netbacks at $23.18/boe - bad but expected for gas
$60,000/flowing boe - alright
2:1 debt to cash flow ratio - alright

Dividend looks sustainable. Better than most natural gas based stocks I've seen. It also adopted a DRIP (drividend re-investment plan) which some people like, but I personally think is just annoyingly dilutive. Overall... looks like a solid company just struggling with a high gas weighting. I think you can find better stuff out there though.

It'll prolly do OK, but I am bearish on gas and hate DRIP programs, so not for me. Better stuff out there IMO.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[davidI]

These high dividend stocks are super popular at the moment since people are so defensive. I think they are possibly a great investment if you can get in at the right price, but be ready to sell as soon as there is a hint that interest rates / fixed income investments will go up or you'll probably take a pretty nasty capital loss.

Look at companies like Enbridge and Crescent Point and though they're amazing companies, they're over-priced for what they are as people are using them as a defensive play. Same reason on market down days they seem to go up!

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by in*10*se


DTX.TO
WCP.TO
TOL.V
STO.TO

how is STO.TO doing today? :poosie:

[msommers]

How is LSG.TO doing today :bigpimp:

[Meback]

how is hnu/ hnd todaY!:nut:

[davidI]

Picked up some TLM at $12.48 as that's it's 50 day M/A and I think we may get a small pop. Don't like the company for long-term, but thinking there may be a jump this week. I'll likely ditch most of my position before Feb. 15th earnings though.

Picked up CNQ yesterday at $38 as well. My justification is here: http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-canadian-natural-resources-limited/

The SC spread is already narrowing so even though Horizon is down at the moment, I think it will support CNQ's price as soon as their production is back on while Syncrude is still down.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by davidI

Picked up CNQ yesterday at $38 as well. My justification is here: http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-canadian-natural-resources-limited/

The SC spread is already narrowing so even though Horizon is down at the moment, I think it will support CNQ's price as soon as their production is back on while Syncrude is still down.

I think CNQ is a good call - I picked up a chunk yesterday as well.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Stupid Indigo

News Yesterday: Beats forecasted Earnings!
Stock Yesterday and Today: Tanks over 3%

Bloody stock market sometimes :banghead:

Oh well, I will be holding it until Feb 24 so I can get my 11 cent dividend

Sometimes it goes beyond the numbers.


Net profit from continuing operations for the quarter was $23.7 million compared with a net profit from continuing operations of $27 million last year. The company said that was a result of increased promotional discounts to drive print sales and increased sales of low margin e-readers.

Indigo said the sale of Toronto-based e-reader maker Kobo Inc. to Japan's Rakuten Inc. for US$315 million recently closed. The acquisition by the Tokyo-based e-commerce company provides it with an opportunity to expand its footprint into new and expanding markets.

The company also said that Ted Marlow has stepped down from his role as president and is returning to the United States.


So basically, print sales are done, they've closed their sale of Kobo (probably priced in, but tied with increased sales of low margin e-readers could hurt overall prospects), their president has resigned, and Amazon has announced they're opening brick & mortar stores. Oh, and even though estimates were low, their q3 profit is still down. Lots of reasons for the price to go down despite beating expectations.

[msommers]

Any opinions Bowood Energy? I'm liking the AB Fairway play and these guys seem to have good land holds.

[davidI]

Originally posted by msommers
Any opinions Bowood Energy? I'm liking the AB Fairway play and these guys seem to have good land holds.

I golfed with their president a couple years back at a Landman function. Seems like an interesting play, but I really haven't heard much about the Exshaw being the next 'big thing'. These guys are still really small...if they're able to prove it up it could be huge, but I'd call that a big IF. To me, this is a play the bigger boys would be interested in more if was really prospective, but I haven't done much recent research on it so perhaps I'm missing something.

Their chart isn't great either.

I'll do more research if / when I have a chance. Headed to Belgium for some delicious beers tomorrow.

:D

[msommers]

Enjoy! Stop in Delerium in Brussels and grab a fresh Delerium Tremens

[CMW403]

Originally posted by msommers
Enjoy! Stop in Delerium in Brussels and grab a fresh Delerium Tremens

YES. That was my absolute favorite part of brussels.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by msommers
Any opinions Bowood Energy? I'm liking the AB Fairway play and these guys seem to have good land holds.

Way too high risk. Of operated wells, they've only got TWO nice ones in the whole company. One is all gas, the other is under MRL's. They spend way more than they make, and their big play, the Bakken, is operated by Legacy anyway. If you want to be in the play, buy Legacy. Having said that, Legacy's trading at a huge premium IMO (and usually has), so not a stock for me.

Why do you like the Alberta Fairway play? Seems to be shit for the most part so far.

[davidI]

^ Pretty much sums up what I gathered from the basic presentation I saw on their website. I also noticed that executive compensation is quite high (~$250k) and their option levels are quite low (~$750k) so to me, these guys really aren't risking that much if the company doesn't perform.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by in*10*se


DTX.TO
WCP.TO
TOL.V
STO.TO

WCP.TO

i'm pretty solid for 2012 so far....

[Euro_Trash]

What do you guys think about SEQ? Down 8% today for an equity offering. Apparently have 480 boe/d sitting behind pipe right now, with hz CLLK well being completed right now. Seems like their management has low interest in the company which is bit iffy.

[Gadgetboy]

Anyone have any ideas as to what Greece defaulting will do to the markets? I'm an uneducated investor at best (most of my money I just put into company stock), but I'm wondering if this whole Greece thing goes down, whether I'm going to lose my savings and underwear if all my money is in the markets.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by Gadgetboy
Anyone have any ideas as to what Greece defaulting will do to the markets? I'm an uneducated investor at best (most of my money I just put into company stock), but I'm wondering if this whole Greece thing goes down, whether I'm going to lose my savings and underwear if all my money is in the markets.

yes. if greece goes to shit. italy will default next, and its all dominos after that.

since greece got their bail out. disaster should be averted... for now...

next hurdle will be the US debt ceiling...

These are the 2 major macro events that could pretty much fuck the world....

greece was the biggest threat imo. so i think 2012 should be a good year. but again, just my opinion.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by in*10*se


yes. if greece goes to shit. italy will default next, and its all dominos after that.

since greece got their bail out. disaster should be averted... for now...

next hurdle will be the US debt ceiling...

These are the 2 major macro events that could pretty much fuck the world....

greece was the biggest threat imo. so i think 2012 should be a good year. but again, just my opinion.

Lets say Greece did default, how much of an effect would have have on Canadian O&G juniors?

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


Lets say Greece did default, how much of an effect would have have on Canadian O&G juniors?

Understand Top-Down investing and you'll understand the effect.

Macro-economic fears will trickle down to individual sectors and individual sector performance will trickle down to individual stocks.

There are some signs that the market is getting overbought. When everyone is bullish, it's time to get fearful....

[davidI]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-hits-1350-again-200635263.html

[msommers]

Originally posted by Feruk
Why do you like the Alberta Fairway play? Seems to be shit for the most part so far.

The Exshaw is the source rock for a LOT of oil in Alberta. I'm a little curious how they got their TOC values but they could be promising. I saw a talk last year at the CSPG convention and started taking a look into it more recently.

http://www.cspg.org/documents/Conventions/Archives/Annual/2011/137-The_Alberta_Bakken.pdf

[davidI]

^ Interesting presentation for sure. Recoverability will be the wild card in my mind. It would also be interesting to see where the Ro=0.80 line is in relation to company's land positions. You seen anything showing that?


1) DST recoveries (Fig 2a) indicate that all live oil or gas recoveries occur at
or west of the Ro=0.80 line; and 2) a review of production (Fig 2a) indicates that no proven production
occurs east of the Ro=0.80 line.

[msommers]

Page 10/16 I believe of their pres. Ro has to do with vitrinite reflectance (for those who were not sure).

From a geological perspective (the one I best understand) the potential here is fantastic. I think a little more work should be done in the area as I fear there may be overmature zones but where exactly I do not know. The area I'm still quite questionable of their financial report i.e., if it's up to snuff.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by CMW403


Lets say Greece did default, how much of an effect would have have on Canadian O&G juniors?

Look at Oct 3. Greece shit the bed that day.

I've charted some midsize and some juniors, also included the major indices. notice the drop in juniors are much deeper than the midsizes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WCP.TO+Interactive#symbol=wcp.to;range=20110615,20111115;compare=cpg.to+dtx.to+tol.v+mel.to+^dji+^ixic+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

As a junior o&g... they'd get pummeled hard hard hard compared to a larger or midsize o&g.

[Feruk]

This is some really weird stuff. It's pretty rare you see what looks like water sitting over oil. I wonder how they drill these to stay out of the water leg and whether hitting the water will bring in the ocean like on some plays or be of little issue like others.

Too bad the actual well performance has been shit. Too early to tell what the economics are gonna be and these companies are all so overpriced that it's tough to even consider participating.

[in*10*se]

edit

[davidI]

Bad news out of CNQ again, but picked up 100 more shares. Going to continue picking up 100 share lots over coming weeks as they work through the Horizon issues. Still a great long-term buying opportunity in my mind....unless the greater market shits the bed soon.

[bitteeinbit]

Originally posted by davidI

There are some signs that the market is getting overbought. When everyone is bullish, it's time to get fearful....
Who the hell is bullish, lol? Well come to think of it a lot of analysts are saying there's a "rebound' etc. Still flimsy imo. Staying away from the market aside from my ORT investment. But that's long-term and I won't cashout no matter what happens before at east 1.5-2 years.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by in*10*se


Look at Oct 3. Greece shit the bed that day.

I've charted some midsize and some juniors, also included the major indices. notice the drop in juniors are much deeper than the midsizes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WCP.TO+Interactive#symbol=wcp.to;range=20110615,20111115;compare=cpg.to+dtx.to+tol.v+mel.to+^dji+^ixic+^gspc;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

As a junior o&g... they'd get pummeled hard hard hard compared to a larger or midsize o&g.

Interesting, thanks!

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI
Bad news out of CNQ again, but picked up 100 more shares. Going to continue picking up 100 share lots over coming weeks as they work through the Horizon issues. Still a great long-term buying opportunity in my mind....unless the greater market shits the bed soon.

How low do you see it going in these weeks while they are working through the issues at horizon? Or was that massive drop this morning directly related to the announcement and it could possibly build itself back up to around 37-38 until the plant is fixed?

I know i'm a noob but just play along:rofl:

[davidI]

Originally posted by bitteeinbit

Who the hell is bullish, lol? Well come to think of it a lot of analysts are saying there's a "rebound' etc. Still flimsy imo. Staying away from the market aside from my ORT investment. But that's long-term and I won't cashout no matter what happens before at east 1.5-2 years.

I know what you're saying, but I think given how bearish things have been the last few years, people are taking a more bullish position lately after the January rally. I guess I was also talking more about the S&P500 as well....as the TSX has been a bit more volatile. Of course, if the S&P500 shits the bed, we're going to be dragged down with it.

Dow 15,000? http://www.cnbc.com/id/46383712

S&P 1350? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-hits-1350-again-200635263.html



"Investors are positioned for a continuation of the recent risk rally," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note. "Investors' assessment of their own risk levels also suggests that there is more room for further risk rally."

In a technical analysis, the firm considered a successful test of 1336 to be significant and believes there is a clear path to 1370 or 1375.

The most recent BofA Global Investment Survey indicates 20 percent with risk "full on" in their portfolios, while 55 percent say they are at "average" levels. Just 20 percent are "below average."

That's cause for concern, though, on two levels: Such inflated optimism often precedes market downturns, and the enthusiasm isn't shared on the corporate level. Insiders have sold $2.3 billion in shares for February, more than 15 times the $145 million they've bought, according to market research firm TrimTabs.

That trend also has been reflected in share buybacks, which have dropped off as well to $1.7 billion a day, the lowest level in a year and a half.

"The bulls do not seem to have noticed that U.S. companies are committing less of their own money to buy shares," TrimTabs CEO Charles Biderman said. "The slowdown in buybacks is worrisome because our research shows buyback volume is highly correlated with stock prices."

Also, the S&P500 is probably more 'bullish' than the TSX.

Percentage of S&P500 stocks over 150 day MA is now 87%.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA150R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p65603516023

On the S&P/TSX it's under 60%

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSXA150R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p69816553990

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


How low do you see it going in these weeks while they are working through the issues at horizon? Or was that massive drop this morning directly related to the announcement and it could possibly build itself back up to around 37-38 until the plant is fixed?

I know i'm a noob but just play along:rofl:

I think this latest sell-off was pretty knee jerk. I think it's a great time to accumulate more shares. I wouldn't buy your entire position now....but maybe 30-50% and then continue to accumulate over coming weeks as more news comes out and we get more direction from the overall market.

The way I see it, the CNRL lost over $3 billion for what will probably be a $300 million problem. You can see my calculations and my more detailed thoughts here http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-canadian-natural-resources-limited-cnq-20120215/

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI


I think this latest sell-off was pretty knee jerk. I think it's a great time to accumulate more shares. I wouldn't buy your entire position now....but maybe 30-50% and then continue to accumulate over coming weeks as more news comes out and we get more direction from the overall market.

The way I see it, the CNRL lost over $3 billion for what will probably be a $300 million problem. You can see my calculations and my more detailed thoughts here http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-canadian-natural-resources-limited-cnq-20120215/

Again, thanks a lot. I'm continuing to learn a hell of a lot from you in terms of evaluation. Keep the blog posts coming!!

[Feruk]

Anyone here follow Armistice Resources Corp (TSX.V: AZ)? They're a gold company preparing to go into full blow mining phase. They've deliniated their play, have pretty nice intercepts, and plan to mine 25,000 oz of gold this year. Estimating average earnings of $500/oz, that's $12.5MM on a market cap of $52.7MM. They're in Ontario. They've got a second field with decent results they're trying to prove up as well. Seems like a pretty good story with maybe the exception of the President/CEO on who there is little to no info. Thoughts? I haven't thrown in yet but am curious if anyone has shares or thoughts in/on this one.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[davidI]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
With Iran threatening to cut off oil, I am thinking about dropping into some oil stocks to catch the upswing to 150$ per barrel.

I am leaning towards Suncor, any opinions on what is the best bet?

I like CPG, SU, and COS, but feel they are fully priced right now. I'd look at picking up CNQ while it's oversold. Check out the blog post I linked to higher...

[Akumaz]

whats with the big sell off on CPG?

[cidley69]

Is anyone using VectorVest? If so would you recommend it?

If not, do you know of any similiar software?

[davidI]

Originally posted by Akumaz
whats with the big sell off on CPG?

Crescent Point is selling stock to raise money for a big PetroBakken buy-out. It's another indication that the stock is over-priced in my mind.

http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-crescent-point-energy-corp-cpg-20120217/

[Akumaz]

Originally posted by davidI


Crescent Point is selling stock to raise money for a big PetroBakken buy-out. It's another indication that the stock is over-priced in my mind.

http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-crescent-point-energy-corp-cpg-20120217/

Thanks! can you explain to me why it would be beneficial to buy share through wild stream? as i dont really understand. 1 share of wild stream is currently 9.7, and CPG is at 45.45. 1 share of WSX becomes 0.17 of a share of CPG. Making it worth roughly 7.73$
add 1.66 of the Newco share, that is still only 9.4. Does that mean the share is over valued? Sorry if this is a noob question as i am a very new at this.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[davidI]

Originally posted by Akumaz


Thanks! can you explain to me why it would be beneficial to buy share through wild stream? as i dont really understand. 1 share of wild stream is currently 9.7, and CPG is at 45.45. 1 share of WSX becomes 0.17 of a share of CPG. Making it worth roughly 7.73$
add 1.66 of the Newco share, that is still only 9.4. Does that mean the share is over valued? Sorry if this is a noob question as i am a very new at this.

You're also getting 0.2 purchase warrants on the NewCo. NewCo should have a NAV of $1.61 if I remember correctly, and I imagine it will start trading with a significant "management premium" given the success of Neil's team in the past.

[Akumaz]

oh, the 1.61 is the NAV and not initial trading value?
what does this 0.2 purchase warrant mean? lets say i was given 1000 shares of of Newco, i can purchase 200 shares at any given time before the expiration date, for the NAV of 1.61?

[davidI]

Copied from research:

It is expected that once trading, the Newco will have no debt, as the assumed warrant
exercise will generate $23.1 million, and a private placement of up to 14.375 million
units of Newco will be done at $1.61 per unit to employees of Newco (and their directors,
relatives, and business associates). Each unit will consist of 1 common share of Newco
and 1 share purchase warrant with an exercise price of $2.00 for a period of three years
from the date of issuance (leaving an approximate $3 million cash position if fully
subscribed).

So in essence, the "IPO" of the NewCo is being done at $1.61, and I expect a pop when it becomes trading.

The warrants will have an exercise price of $2 for 3 years. Given that Neil's last 4 companies have gained over 100% and sold in 2-3 years, there's a good likelihood that the NewCo will eventually be worth $3+, meaning that the warrants should hopefully add at least another $0.20 per share in value a couple years from now. The big thing I'm expecting is a 10-20% pop in the share price when it starts trading as the "management premium".

[KappaSigma]

Went to a session last week on M&A actovity for NG, and they said to expect some large foreign purchases for WC gas companies (reserves and porudction) over the next 1-2 years to secure energy reserves...

Interetsing to see the Encana deal today...

[Type_S1]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
Went to a session last week on M&A actovity for NG, and they said to expect some large foreign purchases for WC gas companies (reserves and porudction) over the next 1-2 years to secure energy reserves...

Interetsing to see the Encana deal today...

Mitsubishi may want to rename the play Evo-XXX

There should be some massive asian investment in NG. Right now they are just bottom fishing for properties.

[Manhattan]

What's the deal with PBN.TO? Wild price changes.

Is it safe to buy RIM now?

[davidI]

Originally posted by Manhattan
What's the deal with PBN.TO? Wild price changes.

Is it safe to buy RIM now?

CPG is buying PBN assets.

http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-crescent-point-energy-corp-cpg-20120217/

RIM? Why? Losers buy Losers.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Manhattan
What's the deal with PBN.TO? Wild price changes.

Is it safe to buy RIM now?

CPG is buying PBN assets.

http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-crescent-point-energy-corp-cpg-20120217/

RIM? Why? Losers buy Losers.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by davidI
Copied from research:

It is expected that once trading, the Newco will have no debt, as the assumed warrant
exercise will generate $23.1 million, and a private placement of up to 14.375 million
units of Newco will be done at $1.61 per unit to employees of Newco (and their directors,
relatives, and business associates). Each unit will consist of 1 common share of Newco
and 1 share purchase warrant with an exercise price of $2.00 for a period of three years
from the date of issuance (leaving an approximate $3 million cash position if fully
subscribed).

So in essence, the "IPO" of the NewCo is being done at $1.61, and I expect a pop when it becomes trading.

The warrants will have an exercise price of $2 for 3 years. Given that Neil's last 4 companies have gained over 100% and sold in 2-3 years, there's a good likelihood that the NewCo will eventually be worth $3+, meaning that the warrants should hopefully add at least another $0.20 per share in value a couple years from now. The big thing I'm expecting is a 10-20% pop in the share price when it starts trading as the "management premium".

I believe warrant exercise price is $1.61 as per quote from PR: "Each whole Newco Warrant will entitle the holder to acquire one common share of Newco at an exercise price equal to its defined net asset value of $1.61 per share at any time on or before the close of business on thirtieth (30th) day following the closing of the Arrangement

I've been wrong on Crescent Point many times, but I'm still steering clear of this one. I think they're overvalued, hate DRIP, and don't wanna own this future junior ("Newco") or CPG stock. Wild Stream was exciting due to their Shaunovan play (albeit I never owned it). Their Dodsland stuff is second rate and unexciting at best. They've got some land in the core, but they're mostly drilling the fringe and getting worse results than their peers. I see why this deal is amazing for CPG; take the good stuff and have the Newco prove up their Dodsland position before buying them out. I still think there is way better companies to own at cheaper metrics. Rumor is REL is press releasing something next week; way more interested in that one.

[davidI]

Shit, you're right. I read the analyst report too quickly. What I posted was about the subscription for the NewCo. I had thought the Warrants were for $1.61 and was surprised when I saw the $2. Thanks for catching that.

Even better if the Warrants are at $1.61. Neil's team have successfully flipped 4 companies now and I think it would be great to get in on the ground floor of this one.

I'll likely sell my CPG stock once the deal goes through.

REL is definitely of interest to me, but I haven't had the time to do the due diligence on it.