Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Type_S1]

Originally posted by triplep
It seems like you guys know your shit, I am wondering what you think of PCLN??

Unless you have a ton of capital it isn't really worth it because you are risking everything on the success of one company.

Edit: I don't know my shit though, and don't look at companies like this...I only look at and invest in Energy companies

[Type_S1]

Anyone ever looked into RLE? I got in at ~.75

What a great company in my opinion. I wouldn't get in now as they have shot up here in the last month but definitely should throw it on your radar.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by triplep
It seems like you guys know your shit, I am wondering what you think of PCLN??
Looks like trading at 32X last year's earnings. Looks like 12.4X book value. Grossly overvalued in my opinion. Plus I question how much money they can really make in this business with so much better completition.

[triplep]

Originally posted by Feruk

Looks like trading at 32X last year's earnings. Looks like 12.4X book value. Grossly overvalued in my opinion. Plus I question how much money they can really make in this business with so much better completition.


Wouldn't buy or sell the stock.. more so towards options on this one... I was looking at their financials, and I have NO IDEA how they make what they claim they make.... that is why I was curious... also, they don't have as many shares outstanding as the other companies, so that is why their price might be so jacked.

[msommers]

If something doesn't look right or feel right, just move on, lots of companies out there.

[triplep]

Originally posted by msommers
If something doesn't look right or feel right, just move on, lots of companies out there.

I'm looking for a black swan :)

[Feruk]

Originally posted by triplep

Wouldn't buy or sell the stock.. more so towards options on this one... I was looking at their financials, and I have NO IDEA how they make what they claim they make.... that is why I was curious... also, they don't have as many shares outstanding as the other companies, so that is why their price might be so jacked.
I'm pretty inexperienced in options trading, so maybe someone else can speak to that. As for how they make what they claim to make, you'd have to go through the press release. Shares outstanding doesn't matter for book value or earnings multiple. Whether a company's got a million shares at $1 or 100K shares at $10 doesn't really matter as I'm looking at market cap. In my opinion, what you've found is a massively overvalued stock, not a black swan. There must be some upside I'm not seeing as for why it's trading so high, but I don't like to pay for upside when I buy a stock. I definitely wouldn't put my money long.

[canadian_hustla]

Originally posted by Type_S1
Looks like if you bought DSCO you did great for yourself if you got out early this morning.

:werd:

LOL well THAT was a piece of shit that I shouldn't have held... and still hold.. It was being absolutely raped by short sellers, and previous dilution. Look at todays volume! 24M in shares traded with a 100M cap?1?!? run like mad!

take my advice, don't buy that OVERPRICED pharma stock LOL

In fact, it went up 10% on an approval and would have gone down 90% on a decline.... it is not worth betting on the 1st place NHL team to win against the worst team, especially if you have vegas odds to win of 10:1

Let's just hope I can recoup my initial investment (and the other $3k that i invested in it at $4.36)



back to the general forums I go!!!

[davidI]

Originally posted by Type_S1
Anyone ever looked into RLE? I got in at ~.75

What a great company in my opinion. I wouldn't get in now as they have shot up here in the last month but definitely should throw it on your radar.

This was one of the O&GB recommendations...I expected it to be a bit of a pump and dump stock but with this latest news of their deal in the US it's definitely got growth potential. Nice work getting in at .75.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Feruk
Anyone own any of the American investment corp companies? They all seem to pay a pretty good dividend (some sustainable, some not). Any thoughts on these? I'm looking at PNNT on the Nasdaq, but other ones that popped up on my list are TCAP, ARCC, SLRC, VGR.
Anyone? Nobody's ever seen these names??

[997TT]

C'mon avl. Up $1500 and counting.

[davidI]

Haven't had much time for blog posts recently as I'm busy with my dissertation but I'm sitting in WSX, NVA, NVS & CNQ right now.

May look to pick up some RPT at 0.065 as a high risk speculative buy. Their CEO used to be my group's executive VP and he's a smart dude - worth rolling the dice on IMO.

Watching BWD closely as well. Their 'strategic review' sounds a lot like heading off bankruptcy to me, but it doesn't look like they're in too nasty of a bind yet so they may be able to make a lucrative deal. They have some pretty attractive assets for a bigger company looking to get into the AB Fairway IMO. Not buying at these levels...but could be another speculative buy at the righ price.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI
Haven't had much time for blog posts recently as I'm busy with my dissertation but I'm sitting in WSX, NVA, NVS & CNQ right now.

May look to pick up some RPT at 0.065 as a high risk speculative buy. Their CEO used to be my group's executive VP and he's a smart dude - worth rolling the dice on IMO.

Watching BWD closely as well. Their 'strategic review' sounds a lot like heading off bankruptcy to me, but it doesn't look like they're in too nasty of a bind yet so they may be able to make a lucrative deal. They have some pretty attractive assets for a bigger company looking to get into the AB Fairway IMO. Not buying at these levels...but could be another speculative buy at the righ price.

Have you looked into REL yet? You should do that when you get some spare time.

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


Have you looked into REL yet? You should do that when you get some spare time.

Had a quick look at the technicals. It's wedging out between the 50 & 200 day MA. May look to buy if it breaks out but need to review financials & operations first. CPG will continue looking to buy with shares while its stock is over-priced.

RSI is still high @ ~52.

Spikey volumes.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by davidI
Haven't had much time for blog posts recently as I'm busy with my dissertation but I'm sitting in WSX, NVA, NVS & CNQ right now.

May look to pick up some RPT at 0.065 as a high risk speculative buy. Their CEO used to be my group's executive VP and he's a smart dude - worth rolling the dice on IMO.

Watching BWD closely as well. Their 'strategic review' sounds a lot like heading off bankruptcy to me, but it doesn't look like they're in too nasty of a bind yet so they may be able to make a lucrative deal. They have some pretty attractive assets for a bigger company looking to get into the AB Fairway IMO. Not buying at these levels...but could be another speculative buy at the righ price.

I could see Murphy Oil coming in and buying them out. Consolidate their land assets and continue to work with the local group that both have partnerships with.

[Type_S1]

.

[davidI]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


I could see Murphy Oil coming in and buying them out. Consolidate their land assets and continue to work with the local group that both have partnerships with.

Question then becomes - how desperate is Bowood? Will the deal provide a return or just help dig them out of a hole?

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI
Haven't had much time for blog posts recently as I'm busy with my dissertation but I'm sitting in WSX, NVA, NVS & CNQ right now.

May look to pick up some RPT at 0.065 as a high risk speculative buy. Their CEO used to be my group's executive VP and he's a smart dude - worth rolling the dice on IMO.

Watching BWD closely as well. Their 'strategic review' sounds a lot like heading off bankruptcy to me, but it doesn't look like they're in too nasty of a bind yet so they may be able to make a lucrative deal. They have some pretty attractive assets for a bigger company looking to get into the AB Fairway IMO. Not buying at these levels...but could be another speculative buy at the righ price.

I'm also holding this right now... Any theories on why this is happening other than the Horizon issues? It seems like every morning I look at it down >0.50 and it dampens my day.

[Anergex]

Invicta Energy Corp (VCA) looks like it has some upside....

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


I'm also holding this right now... Any theories on why this is happening other than the Horizon issues? It seems like every morning I look at it down >0.50 and it dampens my day.

If you're in it for the short term, it's probably a bad trade. This time, next year, mark my words (unless a bear market sets in) you'll be a huge winner. I've got 700 shares into CNRL at these levels, which is a decent percentage of my portfolio. It's a good value buy. Trust me.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI


If you're in it for the short term, it's probably a bad trade. This time, next year, mark my words (unless a bear market sets in) you'll be a huge winner. I've got 700 shares into CNRL at these levels, which is a decent percentage of my portfolio. It's a good value buy. Trust me.

Yeah, long term. I got in at around 37 because I thought I was getting pretty good value too. Thanks

[anschutz_92]

The issue with CNQ, COS, SU, CVE, CPG ect ect is they are all selling into the midwest market and getting royally bent over in the process. Syncrude is only getting $92/bbl today for a superior product to WTI or Brent because of the market the product is locked into. There are not enough pipelines into the states in either volume or quantity and the NW doesn't have enough refining capacity to keep up with supply.

The Seaway pipeline is only going to debottle-neck 140k/day of supply in Q2 2012 (to put this in perspective, Syncrude has 1 coker down + CNRL down =~220k/day). In 2013 the seaway expansion is supposedly going to be ~400k/day but how much do you want to bet that this increase flow will only really effect the WTI price. The majority of the keystone XL will be built in 2015 at the absolute earliest and any significant pipeline to the west coast will probably take another ten years. This is likely not a short term problem and will probably put a ceiling on share prices for a while (aka many months if not years).

Not doom and gloom, just my thoughts. I'm getting railed just as hard as many of you. I'll agree they are all getting significantly oversold at current levels.

[Euro_Trash]

Originally posted by davidI


If you're in it for the short term, it's probably a bad trade. This time, next year, mark my words (unless a bear market sets in) you'll be a huge winner. I've got 700 shares into CNRL at these levels, which is a decent percentage of my portfolio. It's a good value buy. Trust me.

Are you picking any more up on the back up? Seems like 34 is a good support

[davidI]

Originally posted by Euro_Trash


Are you picking any more up on the back up? Seems like 34 is a good support

I don't see a lot of support at 34, but that could be the bounce point. The trend is uglier than I expected - though overall market sentiment hasn't been helping.

I'll wait until it's found bottom and then look to buy another 300-500 shares.

RSI is indicating it's oversold so hopefully we'll see a reversal soon.

[Feruk]

Bought HND (gas double bear ETF) for a quick week plus trade with expectation of gas heading to $2. Straight gambling.

Also picked up TCAP and PNNT last week in my TFSA. Both have a 10% dividend with a proven 5 year track record of maintaining it. Something worth looking into maybe? Only thing is they're American, so you pay a 15% witholding tax on dividend.

Rumors flying around that REL has completed their winter program and will announce news this week or next week. It should be noted however that I've heard these before only to see no news from REL.

[997TT]

What do you guys think of dgc or tou?

I've played dgc a feel times for 10% gains and it looks like it prime for that again

Tou, would be more of long term play (6 mths - 1 yr)

[cloud7]

SMF.TO dropped a lot during the past couple of days. Looks like a good buy at this point.

[997TT]

Just added 1k of dgc at $24.54 and 3k of smf at $5.22
See what happens.
Sold avl at 2.86.
Now in the red in npk. Lol. Pos stock. If it drops 5% or more, I will double my position.

[Feruk]

REL got bought today:
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=49398010&qm_symbol=REL

Crescent Point offering ~$0.362/share. Made an easy 30% from my average buy price, but I think it's worth $0.42/share ++, so I'm voting all my shares "no."

[Red@8]

Originally posted by Feruk
REL got bought today:
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=49398010&qm_symbol=REL

Crescent Point offering ~$0.362/share. Made an easy 30% from my average buy price, but I think it's worth $0.42/share ++, so I'm voting all my shares "no."

Nice! I was hesitating on buying for the last couple of weeks for no reason other than I dont like making money.

[997TT]

Vt halted. Even after they shot up I was thinking of buying in the $14s.
Be interesting to see what news comes out

[CMW403]

Originally posted by Feruk
REL got bought today:
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=49398010&qm_symbol=REL

Crescent Point offering ~$0.362/share. Made an easy 30% from my average buy price, but I think it's worth $0.42/share ++, so I'm voting all my shares "no."

I'll be voting no as well. This is bullshit.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by Feruk
REL got bought today:
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=49398010&qm_symbol=REL

Crescent Point offering ~$0.362/share. Made an easy 30% from my average buy price, but I think it's worth $0.42/share ++, so I'm voting all my shares "no."



Originally posted by CMW403


I'll be voting no as well. This is bullshit.

congrats on the buyout. :thumbsup:

but LOL at you guys thinking your vote means anything at the buyout. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[Feruk]

I think my vote means almost nothing, but they need 66.67% support and they've only got 23% on board thus far. Not gonna let me shares auto vote yes on this one. Lots of pissed off people posting on the Stockhouse boards, some of which have significantly bigger positions than I do. The offer is below 100,000/flowing (they are almost 100% LIGHT SWEET OIL) and ignores their 300 sections of land! While I don't expect it, I would not be shocked to see either Tundra or Fort Calgary Resources comes in with a counter-offer.

[in*10*se]

^so assume they already have the 23% on the board, and they only need another 10%. I'll bet you your holdings that the more than 10% is held by institutions that are more than ready to vote yes. Crescent easily could crush any counter offer by Tundra or Fort Calgary.

But who knows... stranger things have happened. :)

[CMW403]

Originally posted by in*10*se





congrats on the buyout. :thumbsup:

but LOL at you guys thinking your vote means anything at the buyout. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

Thanks bro LOLOLOLoLO

[davidI]

Nice work on REL boys!! Wish I'd found the time to look at it sooner.

CPG's definitely using their inflated share price to make acquisitions.

Anyone know of other shops they're likely after?

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI
Nice work on REL boys!! Wish I'd found the time to look at it sooner.

CPG's definitely using their inflated share price to make acquisitions.

Anyone know of other shops they're likely after?

No idea, but I'll be getting rid of my CPG as soon as WSX goes through and whenever the bidding war ends on REL:thumbsup:

[davidI]

Time to get in on RRX!

In accordance with the Arrangement, Wild Stream shareholders received, for each Wild Stream Share held, consideration consisting of: (i) 0.17 of a common share of Crescent Point; (B) 1 common share of Raging River ("Raging River Share"); and (C) 0.2 of a Raging River warrant, each whole warrant entitling the holder to purchase one Raging River Share at an exercise price of $1.61 per share until 4:30 p.m. (Calgary time) on April 16, 2012.

The Raging River Shares and Raging River Warrants have been conditionally approved for listing by the TSX Venture Exchange. Trading in respect of the Raging River Shares and Raging River Warrants is expected to commence on or about March 16, 2012, under the symbol "RRX" and "RRX.WT", respectively.

[in*10*se]

^already in.

how exactly do you exercise your warrants before April 16?

[GQBalla]

bought into JVA when it was 7.48 but sold at 12

oh well good chunk of change for a couple weeks not even of putting money somewhere

[Feruk]

Originally posted by in*10*se
^so assume they already have the 23% on the board, and they only need another 10%. I'll bet you your holdings that the more than 10% is held by institutions that are more than ready to vote yes. Crescent easily could crush any counter offer by Tundra or Fort Calgary.

They've got 23% between CPG interest and the board. Need another 43.67% to make it go through. Not sure where your 10% comes from? And yes, I'd totally encourage them crushing any competitor's bids with a higher bid. :) Either way, I doubt it'll happen.


Originally posted by davidI
CPG's definitely using their inflated share price to make acquisitions.

Anyone know of other shops they're likely after?
I don't "know", but I hear rumors and can make guesses. My best guess is Arcan Resources (ARN). They've got land in the Swan Hills play with Crescent Point offsetting. I own Arcan; great company. A more far fetched guess is Second Wave Petroleum (SCS). Same play, FAR crappier land position, looking at "strategic alternatives", but I think if they get bought out, it'll be someone else (Pengrowth maybe). I don't hold them right now and am not sure if I'll buy any. A takeover is priced in already IMO.

[in*10*se]

Originally posted by Feruk

They've got 23% between CPG interest and the board. Need another 43.67% to make it go through. Not sure where your 10% comes from? And yes, I'd totally encourage them crushing any competitor's bids with a higher bid. :) Either way, I doubt it'll happen.


I don't "know", but I hear rumors and can make guesses. My best guess is Arcan Resources (ARN). They've got land in the Swan Hills play with Crescent Point offsetting. I own Arcan; great company. A more far fetched guess is Second Wave Petroleum (SCS). Same play, FAR crappier land position, looking at "strategic alternatives", but I think if they get bought out, it'll be someone else (Pengrowth maybe). I don't hold them right now and am not sure if I'll buy any. A takeover is priced in already IMO.

damn. my math is terrible, i went for the 1/3 instead of the 2/3... hahahah fail. my bad.
none the less. pretty sure they'll take the offer.
no one wants to bid crescent up cause you'll be stirring up some pretty deep shit w/ such a large company.

anyways. someone wanna help me out on how to exercise that .2 warrant w/ rrx?

[Type_S1]

Originally posted by Feruk

They've got 23% between CPG interest and the board. Need another 43.67% to make it go through. Not sure where your 10% comes from? And yes, I'd totally encourage them crushing any competitor's bids with a higher bid. :) Either way, I doubt it'll happen.


I don't "know", but I hear rumors and can make guesses. My best guess is Arcan Resources (ARN). They've got land in the Swan Hills play with Crescent Point offsetting. I own Arcan; great company. A more far fetched guess is Second Wave Petroleum (SCS). Same play, FAR crappier land position, looking at "strategic alternatives", but I think if they get bought out, it'll be someone else (Pengrowth maybe). I don't hold them right now and am not sure if I'll buy any. A takeover is priced in already IMO.

Bought into second wave back at the start of january when takeover rumors were going crazy downtown...since then it has killed it and seems like an inflated stock. I still think a takeover is coming but I doubt at much of a premium.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by in*10*se


damn. my math is terrible, i went for the 1/3 instead of the 2/3... hahahah fail. my bad.
none the less. pretty sure they'll take the offer.
no one wants to bid crescent up cause you'll be stirring up some pretty deep shit w/ such a large company.

anyways. someone wanna help me out on how to exercise that .2 warrant w/ rrx?

Your math is pretty LOL.

Why on earth would you want to exercise your warrants today?

[in*10*se]

In accordance with the Arrangement, Wild Stream shareholders received, for each Wild Stream Share held, consideration consisting of:
(i) 0.17 of a common share of Crescent Point;
(B) 1 common share of Raging River ("Raging River Share");
(C) 0.2 of a Raging River warrant, each whole warrant entitling the holder to purchase one Raging River Share at an exercise price of $1.61 per share until 4:30 p.m. (Calgary time) on April 16, 2012.


I have a month to exercise.




As previously announced, on March 15, 2012 Raging River also completed a private placement of approximately $23 million of Raging River units ("Raging River Units") at an issuance price of $1.61 per Raging River Unit (the "Private Placement"), each Unit consisting of one Raging River Share and one Raging River common share purchase warrant ("Warrant"). Each Warrant entitles the holder thereof to acquire one Raging River Share at a price of $2.00 for a period of three years from the date of issuance.


no i don't have these warrants.

[davidI]

Originally posted by in*10*se


anyways. someone wanna help me out on how to exercise that .2 warrant w/ rrx?

You should have a position in RRX.WT & RRX.

Current market price of the warrants are $0.9, so with the $1.61 exercise price you're looking at $2.51 for a share of RRX in the event you exercise vs. the $2.54 it's trading at.

You can either just close your position on the warrants and lose that $0.03, or put an instruction in to your broker to exercise the warrants and collect the shares.

Made a tidy 11% on that trade in less than 2 months. Not bad. Not great. We'll see how RRX does over the next few years. It's going to be a long-term hold for me, though I have a feeling ththe stock price may decline a bit over the next few weeks, similar to how WSX first performed, prior to kicking its way up.

I'll try to do an analysis on CPG's charts in the next few days here to determine a solid exit point.

Just need CNRL to pick up its socks now!

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI




I'll try to do an analysis on CPG's charts in the next few days here to determine a solid exit point.

Just need CNRL to pick up its socks now!

That would be much appreciated as I plan to sell my CPG from both the WSX deal and the REL deal (which I heard is going to be accepted) :cry:

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


That would be much appreciated as I plan to sell my CPG from both the WSX deal and the REL deal (which I heard is going to be accepted) :cry:

Posted it. I think it will be possible to sell around $47 but we'll see what happens. http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-crescent-point-energy-corp-cpg-20120319/

The market is sort of freaking me out lately. I don't know why...just seems like the US Markets have been running a little too hard. I'm not looking to sell yet, but am going to focus on value buys and keep my eye on things - possibly set some mental stops.

http://www.wavaholic.com/search/label/SPX

Biggest thing for me is to keep some money in the market. I've missed too many gains waiting on the sidelines in the past.

[in*10*se]

Hm anyone look at CHX? charger energy.

Another recapped jr. Its working its way towards 42% oil+ngl for 2012 exit. should be ~4000boe/d.
Reserves 2P are 39% oil +ngls.

Management team is all former VP's of provident trust.

Something i think would be worth a 52 week hold as they work towards more liquids weighting.

[93mr2gt]

bought 12k shares of MAY.To today @ 1.15

Anyone else looking at this stock?

[Feruk]

Originally posted by in*10*se
Hm anyone look at CHX? charger energy.

Another recapped jr. Its working its way towards 42% oil+ngl for 2012 exit. should be ~4000boe/d.
Reserves 2P are 39% oil +ngls.

Management team is all former VP's of provident trust.

Something i think would be worth a 52 week hold as they work towards more liquids weighting.
Any idea what their total cash flow was for 2011? They have a lot of debt... Beyond that, it looks really interesting. They've got the money in their credit facility to cover their entire capital program, have a good land base, and a decent play they can drill for cheap. My second issue is how much of their current 3,500boe/d is gas. As for reserves, any idea what the PDP or 1P oil/gas split is? Don't care about 2P with juniors.

They're trading at $40.000/flowing which tells me they are either (a) super gas weighted, (b) carrying a heavy debt/cf ratio, or (c) the market doesn't understand the combination yet and there may be a good opportunity.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by 93mr2gt
bought 12k shares of MAY.To today @ 1.15

Anyone else looking at this stock?
In my opinion, market cap's getting high and results are not stellar. By itself, 1.62g/T to 3.93g/T over wide intervals greater than 56m seems pretty good, but factor in that it's ~300m underground, and I start to worry about economics. Love the concentrations, love the size of intervals, but the depth scares me.

In the gold space, I'm seriously looking at SOV.V and not too seriously considering AZ.V. But what do I know? I own AVR who took a 10% hit due to a military coup in Mail today.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Getting absolutely killed on my Imperial Oil stock :banghead:
Until you have a military coup break out in the country where your stock is mining, I think you're sitting alright. :rofl:

[Manhattan]

Every oil stock is getting killed right now. It'll bounce back so it's good chance to load up some more. IMP is not down more than 10% this year anyway.

[dimi]

I'll jump into a CNQ/SU mix, see what happens.

[msommers]

Yeah my Bowood investment, thankfully not that much, is getting destroyed. Bought in at 0.155/share. Would be a fantastic time to put more in but I'm more skeptical than ever!

[davidI]

^ I still think they're seeking a disposition just to stay solvent.

CNQ and SU are both looking good on the charts. The Energy sector really hasn't been showing the returns of other sectors lately though. I'm going to need to start branching out with my investments a bit more soon. Could be some nice opportunities on this pullback though.

[dimi]

Maybe I jumped too soon, but I still think 33.7X/32.2X for CNQ/SU is pretty decent. We'll wait and see.

[Perceptionist]

Originally posted by msommers
Yeah my Bowood investment, thankfully not that much, is getting destroyed. Bought in at 0.155/share. Would be a fantastic time to put more in but I'm more skeptical than ever!

Well if it makes you feel any better, I bought in at $0.46 and have ridden it into the ground. I made a decent return from BWD during the first run up in 2010, but foolishly bought back in last summer.

It's frustrating the way they've released their results on two AB Bakken wells. I still think they've got some real value in their land position, but the economics on the wells just aren't good, especially for a micro-cap like Bowood.

[msommers]

Ouchy! I agree, a big reason I went into them was because I evaluated the geology and the reservoir to have very high potential - I still need to work on my economics side of things. Maybe a lesson learned but we'll see how it goes if they make until next drilling season.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Feruk

I don't "know", but I hear rumors and can make guesses. My best guess is Arcan Resources (ARN). They've got land in the Swan Hills play with Crescent Point offsetting. I own Arcan; great company. A more far fetched guess is Second Wave Petroleum (SCS). Same play, FAR crappier land position, looking at "strategic alternatives", but I think if they get bought out, it'll be someone else (Pengrowth maybe). I don't hold them right now and am not sure if I'll buy any. A takeover is priced in already IMO.

Still haven't had a chance to look at Arcan but it's starting to look good on the charts.

Barrick Gold too.

I'm taking a stomping on CNQ right now but have faith it's going to come up. Wish I'd took my loss and then got back in lower, but I honestly expected it to bottom already...oh well, it was a long-term hold. Hopefully Q2 earnings breath some life back into it the company!

[msommers]

Any particular reason for the recent price drop in ARN?

I personally did some geological research for a neigboring O&G on SCS' Swan Hills play and it's not bad. I think their numbers are pretty inflated but overall still not terrible by any means. Paying for 3D seismic is a pretty strong indicator of their confidence levels in the play too.

[Mattloaf]

Looking for peoples thoughts on PBX.V. I've been watching them for a while now after I heard they were looking to position themselves for a sale. They seem to be pretty confident in their finds, but I'd like to get some other opinions. They've taken a plunge over the last 12 months and i'm thinking they may have finally found support at the .13-.14 mark. If they dip below that it could be lights out though...

Thoughts?

[Feruk]

Originally posted by msommers
Any particular reason for the recent price drop in ARN?
My guess (and it's just that) is one of their potential buyers just got eliminated. Pengrowth bought out NAL instead of Arcan. I'm looking to increase my position as I think they're worth ~$6 today.

* Update, decided to add 50% more shares. We'll see how she rides.

[997TT]

In PD at $9.78 (half position).
I've played this stock 4-5x in the past 6 months.
always been able to get 10-15% returrn.
Will fill the rest of my position if it continues to drop.

[davidI]

Damn - hop on an airplane for 2 days of travel and lose $5k as the markets tumble. F*ck!!

Oh well, I'm still mostly in a cash position and there should be some nice buying opportunities ahead.

[Manhattan]

Keep thinking it's a good opportunity to buy and I just end up deeper in the hole. LOL

[davidI]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Keep thinking it's a good opportunity to buy and I just end up deeper in the hole. LOL

Don't try to pick the bottom. Wait until you see the trend reverse and the charts give a few days of up-trend (easier said than done)!

[dimi]

Originally posted by dimi
Maybe I jumped too soon, but I still think 33.7X/32.2X for CNQ/SU is pretty decent. We'll wait and see.

:facepalm:

Well I'm holding on, that's for sure.

[997TT]

nice rebound day for SMF, DGC and PD. I hope this lasts into beginning of next week.

NPK not doing so good. Oh well.

[msommers]

LSG is shitting the bed lately and I can't figure out why. Although Barrick has been slipping too.

[davidI]

CNQ will probably get a nice bump tomorrow. Markin resigned.

[Manhattan]

What's the story behind Markin? It's down like everything else today.

[CMW403]

Originally posted by davidI


Posted it. I think it will be possible to sell around $47 but we'll see what happens. http://tsxtrader.com/the-daily-trade-crescent-point-energy-corp-cpg-20120319/

The market is sort of freaking me out lately. I don't know why...just seems like the US Markets have been running a little too hard. I'm not looking to sell yet, but am going to focus on value buys and keep my eye on things - possibly set some mental stops.

http://www.wavaholic.com/search/label/SPX

Biggest thing for me is to keep some money in the market. I've missed too many gains waiting on the sidelines in the past.

Did you get out last week? I held and I'm regretting it.

[davidI]

Originally posted by CMW403


Did you get out last week? I held and I'm regretting it.

60-70% of my portfolio is cash. Sitting on CNQ, CPG, NVA, NVS, RRX, and RPT right now. Not the best positions given what's happening with energy but they're all long-term 'value' and 'growth' holds (except CPG, which I do plan to exit) so I expected some bumps.

I've been so swamped with my dissertation I really haven't had a time to run my usual charts and adjust stops, so I'm just along for the ride at the moment. I should have this beast of a mother fucking paper in next week (page 93 now!) and will get back to updating my blog with charts and updates. The next week is going to be interesting. $TSX and $SPX have not trended together at all. $SPX closed below 1400 and beneath its 5 month trendline - both nasty technical indicators.

People have been buying on the dips though, so we'll see what tomorrow brings.

[davidI]

Originally posted by Manhattan
What's the story behind Markin? It's down like everything else today.

Looked market neutral. Obviously the market didn't hate him as much as they hated Marvin (Nexen's former CEO - NXY got a 10% bump when he was canned).

CNQ still looks oversold. RSI is still low. Hopefully it's found a bottom around $32. Looks like there will be a death cross on the 50 day / 200 day MA. I'm already sitting on 700 shares so I probably won't be looking to pick up more until there is a better macro picture - plus the old adage 'sell in may and go away' may hold true this year so I want to limit my positions if there is a sell-off. A lot of people may look to profit-take after this great 6-month run.

[ragu]

Originally posted by davidI


60-70% of my portfolio is cash. Sitting on CNQ, CPG, NVA, NVS, RRX, and RPT right now. Not the best positions given what's happening with energy but they're all long-term 'value' and 'growth' holds (except CPG, which I do plan to exit) so I expected some bumps.

I've been so swamped with my dissertation I really haven't had a time to run my usual charts and adjust stops, so I'm just along for the ride at the moment. I should have this beast of a mother fucking paper in next week (page 93 now!) and will get back to updating my blog with charts and updates. The next week is going to be interesting. $TSX and $SPX have not trended together at all. $SPX closed below 1400 and beneath its 5 month trendline - both nasty technical indicators.

People have been buying on the dips though, so we'll see what tomorrow brings.

Why go with CPG when PWT offers similar dividend rate? Since you went with growth route, what's your quick say on PWT vs. CPG or other og growth companies?

[Euro_Trash]

What do you guys think of ARX?

[davidI]

Originally posted by ragu


Why go with CPG when PWT offers similar dividend rate? Since you went with growth route, what's your quick say on PWT vs. CPG or other og growth companies?

My CPG stock came out of the sale of WSX. I like CPG's charts but have felt it's overvalued so never chose to buy directly. I was actually looking to sell it but we didn't reach my exit target before this recent market drop. It tends to be relatively defensive and is a dividend payer (which will be a bad thing once governments start raising rates) but is a good hold during this period.

I haven't looked at PWT for a few years. Their balance sheet was pretty gnarly for a while. I think it's improved, but I'm honestly not seeking high-dividend stocks right now. I don't really like chasing the bigger companies for growth either. I make value buys in shops like CNQ and SU for their long-term predictability, and chase growth through juniors who are looking to develop and sell.

There are a lot of 'growth opportunities' priced into CPG and such, and the larger the companies become, the harder it is to be a growth shop.

I have no fucking idea what to do at the moment. Wait and see I guess. This could be a minor correction or the sign of a bigger thing. Europe has really made it tough to be a stock picker...the markets have really moved in tandem this last year and these large scale buying days and sell-offs are the product of the bigger trading firms...fucking us little guys.

Euro_trash, I like ARX. I'd wait until it finds bottom though. It has broken some key supports. I'm watching it too. Once my dissertation is done I'll be looking at it further.

[Feruk]

I would NOT be buying ARX right now. Look at their financial statements. They pay more out in distributions than they make! This can only go two ways:
1) They cut dividend - stock drops
2) They don't cut dividend - rack on debt, devalue company

Their only out is higher gas prices. I've see predictions of $1/mcf by summer, so the exact opposite. They have good assets, but any company that pays out more than they make is a terrible investment in my opinion.

For oil producers with the bulk of production in Canada: I'm bearish on every one until I see a reversal in trends. I'm only holding WCP and doubled down on ARN too early (~$4.75 level). The only oil company I'm even considering right now in BNK, but think it'll go lower. Monday might be the news that reverses the trend on BNK, but I don't chase stocks on the way down.

[davidI]

Haha, shit, when I saw ARX I was thinking Barrick Gold (ABX).I don't know anything about ARX. This thesis is blinding me. On page 96 now though!

Barrick had significant support at $42 which it blew through, thus my comment on the technicals. Its RSI is also below 30, an oversold sign. I haven't had time to read much on Barrick's fundamentals though.

[ZenOps]

Vanilla beans anyone?

http://www.foodanddrinkdigital.com/production/vanilla-shortage-to-cause-rising-prices-this-summer

"It is understood that around 40 per cent of the world supply of black vanilla – around 1,000 tonnes – was recently shipped out of Madagascar following a sudden jump in orders.

In just two months the global price of vanilla has risen from around 25 dollars per kilo to between 35 and 40 dollars."

So some weenietard just bought up 40% of the worlds supply in one shipment. Hunt Brothers got nothing on this guy.

[Euro_Trash]

Yeah I saw the EPS was less than the annual dividend - unfortunate as I think it is a well ran company. I expect we will see them take on more debt to fund the dividend.

As for gas prices, I am as bearish as you. I wouldn't be surprised to see <$1 unless something extreme happens.

[Feruk]

I once owned shares of a trust that paid more than they made. True Energy Trust. They did not cut the dividend and used debt to fund it. Over a few years, stock went from $22 to $1. Never again for me. When you're paying out more than you make, I think the concept of "well run" no longer applies. They're betting gas prices will turn around before they have to cut (as they don't have to for a long time), but I'd just rather have my money in a more sustainable company.

[ragu]

What are thoughts on TransAlta? Dividend growth seems to be really stagnant over past few years but financials are okay.

What are some safe, solid dividend (5%+) stocks?

[msommers]

Enerplus

[buh_buh]

Enbridge is probably the best safe stock you can buy.
Something like 13% gain per year for the last decade.

[borN]

Originally posted by Feruk
I would NOT be buying ARX right now. Look at their financial statements. They pay more out in distributions than they make! This can only go two ways:
1) They cut dividend - stock drops
2) They don't cut dividend - rack on debt, devalue company

Their only out is higher gas prices. I've see predictions of $1/mcf by summer, so the exact opposite. They have good assets, but any company that pays out more than they make is a terrible investment in my opinion.

For oil producers with the bulk of production in Canada: I'm bearish on every one until I see a reversal in trends. I'm only holding WCP and doubled down on ARN too early (~$4.75 level). The only oil company I'm even considering right now in BNK, but think it'll go lower. Monday might be the news that reverses the trend on BNK, but I don't chase stocks on the way down.

I'm not sure I agree with you on ARX. From the looks of it, you're basing your opinion off Q4 and net income, which is meaningless in the O&G industry. ARX has some amazing plays coming up and they've hedged some great netbacks as well (both in oil and gas production). Along with the capex budget they threw out for 2012, I can see a lot of upside coming out of the company.

I'd respectively disagree with the oil producers in Canada comment as well. In the short term, SCO is hugely discounted to WTI, but this is expected to be corrected shortly. Many analysts in the industry expect the differential between light oil produced here and WTI to shrink rapidly in coming months (I believe May contracts are more in line than today...but I'd have to double check that). Hopefully that'll mean an upside to many oil producers in the next few months...

I like your thinking on BNK though...maybe look at Niko as well if you're into internationals!

[Feruk]

Originally posted by borN
I'm not sure I agree with you on ARX. From the looks of it, you're basing your opinion off Q4 and net income, which is meaningless in the O&amp;G industry. ARX has some amazing plays coming up and they've hedged some great netbacks as well (both in oil and gas production). Along with the capex budget they threw out for 2012, I can see a lot of upside coming out of the company.

I'd respectively disagree with the oil producers in Canada comment as well. In the short term, SCO is hugely discounted to WTI, but this is expected to be corrected shortly. Many analysts in the industry expect the differential between light oil produced here and WTI to shrink rapidly in coming months (I believe May contracts are more in line than today...but I'd have to double check that). Hopefully that'll mean an upside to many oil producers in the next few months...

I like your thinking on BNK though...maybe look at Niko as well if you're into internationals!
I totally agree that net income means nothing, and it's not what I'm basing my analysis on. In Q4 FFO was $226.6MM, capital spending and dividend payments was $281.7MM. They spent more than they made racking on debt. Same is true for full year 2011. Without such a high dividend, they would've likely broke even.

I talked to a trader buddy and he's agreeing with you on the price spreads to decrease in the coming months. I'll have to look at some Canadian names this week.

I've looked at NKO back around the $100 mark a couple years ago and haven't looked back since. Might take a look...

[davidI]

Originally posted by borN


I'd respectively disagree with the oil producers in Canada comment as well. In the short term, SCO is hugely discounted to WTI, but this is expected to be corrected shortly. Many analysts in the industry expect the differential between light oil produced here and WTI to shrink rapidly in coming months (I believe May contracts are more in line than today...but I'd have to double check that). Hopefully that'll mean an upside to many oil producers in the next few months...



A lot of SCO producers have also been hammered because of all the recent upgrader fires and such. Suncor, CNRL, COS, AOSC are all worth watching IMO.

Just gotta figure out the bigger picture and how far this pullback will be.

[Manhattan]

What worries me is the bigger picture and the external shock that results from a potential Euro collapse. And it's not looking too good over there. I prefer to be optimistic about it but it seems like things will get a lot worse before it gets better in Europe.

[davidI]

Spain is going to fuck us. Hope everyone is enjoying solid cash positions at the moment.

I feel bad I haven't been doing many Blog updates, but there isn't really anything I'm prepared to recommend at the moment and I really can't pick any solid supports. I don't feel bad though, reading http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/ I can tell Don doesn't want to pick any bottoms either.

I took a few capital gains and a couple losses on my larger holds on the pullback and am just waiting for bottom now. Sort of hoping for a crash! Sitting on a few of my juniors and planning to add to those positions - they're less predictable than the large caps.

I think earnings are going to provide a bit of support, but we'll see what comes out of Europe.

Starting to think an MBA a a European school would be fun. The Euro has been hammered.

My thesis should be done this week, so those of you who enjoyed my blog posts can expect them to start-up again soon.

[davidI]

Originally posted by davidI

Barrick had significant support at $42 which it blew through, thus my comment on the technicals. Its RSI is also below 30, an oversold sign. I haven't had time to read much on Barrick's fundamentals though.

May have found support. Up 2%+ today, gold is only up <1%. I'm still not buying, though.

[Feruk]

I've sold about 5 stocks in the last week and have not picked up anything new. I'm mostly back in cash and am gonna stay there for a while. Only positions I still have for short term are ARN (Arcan), Miranda Technologies (MT) which has a tight stop loss on it, and Avion Gold (AVR) that's just turned into a disaster cuz of a bunch of stupid rebels in Mali. The rest are dividend payers which I'll likely hold for years anyway.

[msommers]

TOL.V with a huge drop today. Not happy about Q4 results?

[Feruk]

Originally posted by msommers
TOL.V with a huge drop today. Not happy about Q4 results?
I almost invested in these guys last month, but their numbers didn't add up thankfully. Look at their Q4 again. It all sounds nice and rosy until you skip all the written fluff and get down to the numbers.
(1) Reserves: total proved and 2P both DOWN (they tell you Cardium reserves are up 41%, but don't bother to mention they have less actual reserves on the books than last year)
(2) Production: Q3 2010 avg = 1,552boe/d, Q4 2011 avg = 1,408boe/d. They spent $30 million in capital last year... to not even cover decline quarter over quarter.
(3) They want to spend $100 million to get from 2,100boe/d to 3,500boe/d. Let's throw on 35% decline to be fair, ignore that we're 3 months in, and they have to find ~2,130boe/d to meet their target. If you need $100 million for that, you've got a serious spending craze (or your wells suck compared to what you press released as even your lowest IP90 is 2X higher then expectations). This is what kept me out of the stock before (well H1 data previously released). They stated a $40MM capital budget but I could only get to $32.4MM (adding up their theoretical drilling costs times planned drills). Just my opinion though.

[borN]

Originally posted by Feruk

I almost invested in these guys last month, but their numbers didn't add up thankfully. Look at their Q4 again. It all sounds nice and rosy until you skip all the written fluff and get down to the numbers.
(1) Reserves: total proved and 2P both DOWN (they tell you Cardium reserves are up 41%, but don't bother to mention they have less actual reserves on the books than last year)
(2) Production: Q3 2010 avg = 1,552boe/d, Q4 2011 avg = 1,408boe/d. They spent $30 million in capital last year... to not even cover decline quarter over quarter.
(3) They want to spend $100 million to get from 2,100boe/d to 3,500boe/d. Let's throw on 35% decline to be fair, ignore that we're 3 months in, and they have to find ~2,130boe/d to meet their target. If you need $100 million for that, you've got a serious spending craze (or your wells suck compared to what you press released as even your lowest IP90 is 2X higher then expectations). This is what kept me out of the stock before (well H1 data previously released). They stated a $40MM capital budget but I could only get to $32.4MM (adding up their theoretical drilling costs times planned drills). Just my opinion though.

I cover these guys, so won't say much. But like many companies, TOL's reserves gone down predicated primarily on natural gas pricing. The oil reserves haven't increased much on a proved basis, but they now account for a lot more of the reserve base as a whole (and the prolific oil plays its in is the main growth story here). A lot of upside to come hopefully with the Dunvegan and Cardium ramping up...

The market was just trash today, so lets see what happens when the market rebounds!

[bitteeinbit]

From Dec 9th 2011:

Originally posted by bitteeinbit
I added to TGL yesterday as I didn't sell during the short rally last week. Hopefully it pays off. I'm confident but if it dips below 7.5$ I'm packing my bags. I think the upside is huge though. I almost managed to scrape the bottom yesterday but I'm still not in the money.

From Dec 22nd:

Originally posted by bitteeinbit

No, I got out of both COS and TGL. Took a loss on TGL (which would have been a sizable gain) and took a slight gain on COS, which could have been much higher. I'm kicking myself now obviously... Good on you for holding through!


Now:
http://img714.imageshack.us/img714/2622/54883682.png


Not sure why I chickened out. I was looking at 2 year charts but freaked out when it barely dipped below my buy price. I knew the longterm upside was huge.. Oh well.