View Full Version : Official Short-term Investments Thread
Red@8
04-11-2012, 12:01 PM
Originally posted by bitteeinbit
Not sure why I chickened out. I was looking at 2 year charts but freaked out when it barely dipped below my buy price. I knew the longterm upside was huge.. Oh well. [/B]
You called this one for sure!
I traded it a couple of times for a moderate profit and have watched it for quite some time now. Its been a rock from the $7's not so long ago.
I always look at this one and its in the green and wish it was my oil play instead of CNQ, which has been on a steady slide. Although I think my complaining about CNQ will fall on deaf ears here as a lot of people on this board are in the red on that one.
davidI
04-11-2012, 12:54 PM
Originally posted by Red@8
I always look at this one and its in the green and wish it was my oil play instead of CNQ, which has been on a steady slide. Although I think my complaining about CNQ will fall on deaf ears here as a lot of people on this board are in the red on that one.
CNQ will come back with a vengeance at some point. Half my position got stopped out at a loss and I will be looking to get back in once the market is looking better.
Seasonality for E&Ps is ending, and I would not be surprised to see oil below $100 again soon.
Red@8
04-11-2012, 01:19 PM
Originally posted by davidI
CNQ will come back with a vengeance at some point. Half my position got stopped out at a loss and I will be looking to get back in once the market is looking better.
I have no doubt I'll be in the green at some point on it. Until then I'll patiently wait it out and occasionally avg down along the way.
Feruk
04-11-2012, 01:21 PM
Originally posted by borN
I cover these guys, so won't say much. But like many companies, TOL's reserves gone down predicated primarily on natural gas pricing. The oil reserves haven't increased much on a proved basis, but they now account for a lot more of the reserve base as a whole (and the prolific oil plays its in is the main growth story here). A lot of upside to come hopefully with the Dunvegan and Cardium ramping up...
The market was just trash today, so lets see what happens when the market rebounds!
You don't see any issues with them spending $30 million and not even being able to keep up with decline? Yes they may have gone from gas to oil exploration, but anyone should be able to keep up with declines when you spend $30MM and have a corporate production the size of one of your supposed Dunvegan IP's!
I have no doubt you're right about the gas write down, as the same appears true for every company. My other issue with their reserves is (it appears) on the oil, they are booking one PUD and two PA locations for every PDP location. I know many of the micro caps do it, but it prevents me from taking their reserves seriously.
997TT
04-12-2012, 10:21 AM
Actually up marginally on a few plays now and getting close to break even on others. Lol
Even at the risk of selling too soon I'm gonna move to a bigger cash positions.
davidI
04-12-2012, 10:59 AM
^You've got balls man. I really don't know what to think right now. I may play around with some trades and trailing stops.
I think earnings may provide positive upside, but Europe may fuck as all again hard.
I love the TSX Composite chart right now - so scattered and hectic compared to the S&P. Just don't know what to think!
997TT
04-12-2012, 11:04 AM
^ I'm just accustomed to losing $$$. Lol
Actually last 6 months have been good. Real good.
Past 4 weeks not so much. Made some bad decisions.
Going to be real selective going fwd as I've done some analysis and talked to a few brokers about the sell in may and go away saying. I think it has some merit personally based on my research.
ZenOps
04-25-2012, 06:30 AM
AAPL is up 10% in the pre-market (after being down more than 10% in the last two weeks)
Pretty impressive volatility. I think they now have more cash at hand than the US.
Get your powerball tickets - sorry I mean stock market slips.
davidI
04-25-2012, 06:57 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
Going to be real selective going fwd as I've done some analysis and talked to a few brokers about the sell in may and go away saying. I think it has some merit personally based on my research.
Worth a look:
S&P - 20 years
http://www.equityclock.com/charts/sp-500-index-gspc-seasonal-chart/
Analysis has revealed that with a buy date of March 9 and a sell date of June 4, investors have benefited from a total return of 85.05% over the last 10 years. This scenario has shown positive results in 7 of those periods.
Conversely, the best return over the maximum number of positive periods reveals a buy date of March 12 and a sell date of June 1, producing a total return over the same 10-year range of 79.65% with positive results in 9 of those periods.
**Results shown are compounded
Manhattan
04-25-2012, 03:43 PM
Which investments are good for shorting the Euro?
davidI
04-25-2012, 10:50 PM
Originally posted by Manhattan
Which investments are good for shorting the Euro?
http://internationalinvest.about.com/od/foreigncurrencies/a/How-To-Short-The-Euro.htm
You can straight up short the Euro, or look into some ETFs to do so.
CMW403
04-26-2012, 07:56 AM
Do I sell or hold GFS? Avg price 6.50.
Please. Someone. Help. :cry:
davidI
04-26-2012, 08:19 AM
Originally posted by CMW403
Do I sell or hold GFS? Avg price 6.50.
Please. Someone. Help. :cry:
I know nothing about the company so I'll just chime in from a technicals perspective.
RSI is showing oversold right now. Current price is around Sept. 2010 support. MACD is heading towards a cross-over to the upside. There is a gap between $6 & $6.20 that should fill.
We're also entering positive seasonality for E&S - usually April 14 to May 17th.
http://www.equityclock.com/seasonality/
I'm guessing something happened to cause the big price drop, but from a technical perspective I'd be looking for the price to get back to the $6 level before bailing.
troyl
04-28-2012, 07:10 PM
I had to pick up some GFS shares at 5.45. I might pick up a few more shares in the coming weeks. Like the technology and believe in their story.
I think in one years time we will be trading much higher. Maybe at these levels a major will come looking......
Akumaz
05-03-2012, 09:25 AM
any thoughts on CNQ Q1 tonight/tmr?
slick2404
05-03-2012, 09:40 AM
Please help. :cry:
Should I cut my loses or hold AVL. Averaged at 3.55, Currently 2.43
http://www.google.com/finance?q=TSE:AVL
troyl
05-03-2012, 07:29 PM
Bought a few more shares of GFS yesterday at 5.15 and today at 4.34 :cry:
Edit: That makes my average cost base 5.15
ZenOps
05-06-2012, 08:49 PM
Hang Seng down 500 points tonight (Sunday night)
Look for a brutal open monday for stocks.
Zewind
05-06-2012, 09:16 PM
Originally posted by ZenOps
Hang Seng down 500 points tonight (Sunday night)
Look for a brutal open monday for stocks.
Sounds to me like a sale!
davidI
05-06-2012, 10:00 PM
Excellent. I'm hoping for a massive sell-off.
davidI
05-06-2012, 10:07 PM
You've also got to remember a lot of tyhe HS drop is a response to North America's Friday.
The outcome of the France and Greece elections may weigh though, so I wouldn't be surprised if it's another negative day in North America as well.
Manhattan
05-07-2012, 09:19 AM
Seriously what are the Euros thinking...the worst possible financial situation and still refusing austerity measures?!? :banghead:
davidI
05-07-2012, 10:10 AM
Same thing as all those who voted NDP in Canada - More than you can afford, pal.
davidI
05-08-2012, 08:55 AM
Markets finally playing the way I want them to!
natejj
05-08-2012, 12:00 PM
I think Greece is absolutely F'd. How can I capitalize on this? Can I short some European ETF? Anyone got any ideas?
davidI
05-08-2012, 12:35 PM
Originally posted by natejj
Can I short some European ETF? Anyone got any ideas?
You can short European stocks or buy puts for sure.
I'm not big on shorts or puts. I'm just watching the Energy sector for lows on the TSX and plan to load up. Some gold plays too.
ABX, CNQ, SU, ARN, NVA, NVS all looking good these days.
Manhattan
05-08-2012, 02:19 PM
Originally posted by natejj
I think Greece is absolutely F'd. How can I capitalize on this? Can I short some European ETF? Anyone got any ideas?
There's a hedge fund manager in NY, one of the biggest funds in the world, who's been criticized because he's put a big short on the Euro currency. Might work out well for him.
Originally posted by davidI ...
And I don't think we're even close to the bottom by the way.
bitteeinbit
05-08-2012, 07:33 PM
Sorros did it with the Pound, why shouldn't he?
Feruk
05-09-2012, 01:36 PM
Not sure how to capitalize on Greek failure as it's pretty much already written in. Also not bullish on oil & gas as of yet. If I was to buy any stock in oil & gas sector, it'd be Twin Butte Energy (TSX: TBE) prolly. Massively undervalued assuming they can get through the merger well. Also pays great dividend with room to move. They've got a good gas hedge but a crap oil hedge.
However, at the moment I'm playing in the technology sector instead. Bought MT (Miranda Technologies) again today. Bought originally at 11, dumped at 12.50. Now it's back to 11.55, and I plan to ride it up. Also looking at Lorex (TSXV: LOX). They make home security cameras that can be easily accessed wirelessly. Cheap, but I haven't bought yet.
davidI
05-09-2012, 02:27 PM
Originally posted by Feruk
Not sure how to capitalize on Greek failure as it's pretty much already written in.
That's the problem. Some analysts figure the Euro will get back 1.40/1.50 US should there be an orderly exit of the Greeks. I wouldn't short unless you're covering it. I'm sure it will take several months, but my bet would be on an exit. I'll put $100 that Greece is gone from the Euro by 2014 if anyone feels like taking the bet!*
* Tab likely paid in beers at strip club.
Feruk
05-09-2012, 03:16 PM
You'd have to give me some pretty steep odds to take that bet. :)
Take a look at TBE. They're by no means a "sexy resource play" company, but they're solid and pay well to wait.
roopi
05-11-2012, 12:51 PM
TLM getting killed again lately. Time for a trade again. In at $10.86 today.
CMW403
05-15-2012, 02:22 PM
Any opinions on CPG? I want to know what I should do with my newly acquired shares from the REL deal.
Euro_Trash
05-15-2012, 02:40 PM
Geez might almost be time to pick up some more CNQ shares. Almost at the 52 week low
roopi
05-15-2012, 07:14 PM
Picked up some TCK, TLM, COS, and SU today. Hoping for a quick bounce but defiantly willing to hod at these prices.
Red@8
05-15-2012, 08:31 PM
I picked up some SU and CNQ as well.
cloud7
05-15-2012, 10:44 PM
Was looking at SU and CNQ as well, but have not picked up any. Probably will pick up some SU before the weekend when it drops a bit more.
davidI
05-16-2012, 01:02 AM
Been watching SU and CNQ but still don't think they've bottomed.
Ran some long-term charts on Sunday to find previous support levels. I'll try to run 'em again this week. I have a feeling oil may keeping losing as well.
http://tsxtrader.com/may-13th-chart-round-up/
broken_legs
05-16-2012, 05:12 AM
Originally posted by davidI
Been watching SU and CNQ but still don't think they've bottomed.
Ran some long-term charts on Sunday to find previous support levels. I'll try to run 'em again this week. I have a feeling oil may keeping losing as well.
http://tsxtrader.com/may-13th-chart-round-up/
Whats the exposure of SU to natural gas in North America?
Whats the exposure of SU to the CAD/USD exchange rate?
Red@8
05-16-2012, 06:51 AM
Originally posted by davidI
Been watching SU and CNQ but still don't think they've bottomed.
Ran some long-term charts on Sunday to find previous support levels. I'll try to run 'em again this week. I have a feeling oil may keeping losing as well.
http://tsxtrader.com/may-13th-chart-round-up/
I agree there may be more downside. I didn't mind starting positions here and I've also got no issues holding on these two plays.
Euro_Trash
05-16-2012, 06:53 AM
Originally posted by davidI
Been watching SU and CNQ but still don't think they've bottomed.
Ran some long-term charts on Sunday to find previous support levels. I'll try to run 'em again this week. I have a feeling oil may keeping losing as well.
http://tsxtrader.com/may-13th-chart-round-up/
Another CNQ chart would be much appreciated
roopi
05-16-2012, 07:39 AM
Originally posted by Red@8
I agree there may be more downside. I didn't mind starting positions here and I've also got no issues holding on these two plays.
I agree completely. It's impossible to time the market perfectly to buy on the absolute low and sell on the high. With solid companies like this there should be a good return holding on. :thumbsup:
davidI
05-16-2012, 07:42 AM
Originally posted by broken_legs
Whats the exposure of SU to natural gas in North America?
Whats the exposure of SU to the CAD/USD exchange rate?
90% oil weighted.
Few assets in the U.S. as far as I'm aware (they lump everything together as North America in their financials) but perhaps they have some refining capacity.
I think the exchange exposure is really just realized commodity prices. Decline in the CDN$ will off-set the decline in oil to an extent...but probably not enough to make much difference.
Hi-Psi
05-16-2012, 09:17 AM
Wow, I go away for a couple weeks and find a complete destruction of my portfolio...
What would you guys suggest I do with my WTG shares? I'm at about a cost of $1.20, should have sold during the run up a couple months back and didn't. Now I'm in at about a 90% loss...
Talk about delisting from the TSX and the possibility of Finsky buying out the rest of the shares while they're dirt cheap.
What a fuckin joke.
davidI
05-16-2012, 10:18 PM
Originally posted by Euro_Trash
Another CNQ chart would be much appreciated
I'm in Yemen and I can't get internet on my personal laptop right now so no charts until they get it fixed.
Unfortunately, if I plug my personal laptop into the corporate network alarms start ringing and I end up in shiznit, so no using the connection I'm on now. :(
davidI
05-17-2012, 06:51 AM
Was just looking at an insdier report and it shows someone at DTX picked up $1.6 MM in shares in the last 60 days. Unfortunately, my shit ass internet connection won't get me into SEDAR to see what it is. If anyone feels like looking up the cause (and timing), that would be sweet.
PPL had insider buying of $2 MM in the last 60 days so it owuld be interesting to look into it as well.
I remember someone on here asking about GFS recently. There was insider buying of $50k in it in the last 60 days.
davidI
05-17-2012, 06:57 AM
Nevermind, found the DTX stats on CanadianInsider.com (good site btw). It only accounts for $250k in pruchases though.
May 15/12 May 14/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 6,000 $4.03
May 15/12 May 14/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 2,000 $4.03
May 15/12 May 14/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Indirect Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 4,000 $4.05
Apr 24/12 Apr 24/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 20,000 $4.62
Apr 24/12 Apr 23/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 1,100 $4.51
Apr 24/12 Apr 23/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 900 $4.51
Apr 24/12 Apr 23/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 6,700 $4.53
Apr 24/12 Apr 23/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 1,500 $4.54
Apr 24/12 Apr 23/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 13,500 $4.54
Apr 24/12 Apr 23/12 Porter, Bradley Blair Direct Ownership Common Shares 10 - Acquisition in the public market 200 $4.55
Stats on Mr. Porter for those who are interested:
Bradley Porter, Independent Businessman
Since the sale of Dual Exploration Inc. in 2006, Bradley has been an independent businessman serving as a board member for a number of private corporations in both the service and producing sectors of the oil and gas industry. He has over 25 years of diverse oil and gas experience. Prior to founding DeeThree in January 2007, Bradley was Executive Vice President and Director of Dual Exploration Inc. from July 2005 to the sale of the company in December 2006. From 1996 to July 2005, he was Executive Vice President and Director of Devlan Exploration Inc.
Could be a stock worth watching.
997TT
05-17-2012, 08:43 AM
^ and now the stock is 3.60. Lol
Can't say my portfolio is doing any better. Haha
davidI
05-17-2012, 09:13 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
^ and now the stock is 3.60. Lol
Can't say my portfolio is doing any better. Haha
I guess he didn't predict a $14 drop in the price of oil this month either :dunno:
Of course, the purchases could also be due to some sort of expiring compensation plan - but I think Canadian Insider usually shows when it's an exercise option / warrant. Who knows, just thought that was a lot of insider purchasing in the last 2 months for a company with a market cap of <$250MM
CMW403
05-18-2012, 10:20 AM
Originally posted by davidI
Was just looking at an insdier report and it shows someone at DTX picked up $1.6 MM in shares in the last 60 days. Unfortunately, my shit ass internet connection won't get me into SEDAR to see what it is. If anyone feels like looking up the cause (and timing), that would be sweet.
PPL had insider buying of $2 MM in the last 60 days so it owuld be interesting to look into it as well.
I remember someone on here asking about GFS recently. There was insider buying of $50k in it in the last 60 days.
Yeah that was me, so should I hold? or buy buy buy
davidI
05-19-2012, 12:14 AM
Originally posted by CMW403
Yeah that was me, so should I hold? or buy buy buy
I don't know the company well enough to make a call. Just thought I'd point it out so you can do further research as to why the purchase was made.
dawerks
05-23-2012, 11:28 AM
Hi Guys, long time no update!
I am very happy with my now long term holding of CRUS. I posted about it moons ago when it was hanging around 16-18 and it's doing well :)
Also holding LLL (how can I sell you my lovely?!).
I also bought CWB, and LB.
I have been 'trading' other stocks but most of them for little gains or losses, nothing too exciting to report. For every 10 or 20 stocks I try out, I find maybe half a gem. But the gems make it worthwhile to keep on digging. LLL has been a home run, and I expect CRUS to be a multi multi bagger years from now :)
Also happily I stayed away from the FB hype as I was on vacation or I would've got caught in the hype and got bathed. I am older but still NOT wiser. Still get sucked into the market hype (sometimes it's good not to be on the computer!)
Good luck guys, and buy what's COLD not HOT.
93VR6
05-23-2012, 12:48 PM
What are your opinions on Calfrac right now (CFW on TSX)
Looking like there could be a bottom here and once the winter season arrives I assume it should be getting back up to those $30 levels...
davidI
05-23-2012, 02:31 PM
TCW also worth a watch.
Meback
05-25-2012, 04:18 PM
Hey, do you folks think there is any more upside to natural gas in the short term?
dawerks
05-25-2012, 05:22 PM
The problem with oil and gas (and yes all commodities) is that you have soo many strikes against you to make money. Trust me, I've tried. It's hard. REALLY hard.
Why? Well you have to find the company. Then you have to PREDICT which way the commodity will go (GOOD LUCK). And even if you get those 2 right, you can still lose money! What?
I have decided to keep the brain aneurysms to a minimum and not trade companies that are based on commodities (except maybe Potash/Uranium, but I am a doubter). Too many things have to be perfect to make long term cash.
I am more into easy money now. I like Canadian banks. They always make money, they always pay dividends and they're safe. Nothing pushes them around and the moves are eaasy and gentle. :)
I wish I would've bought and held Apple, but I didn't. I plan to hold CRUS until Apple makes a massive blunder. EASY money.
If anyone knows of any EASY trades, please let me know. I can't believe I was doing that inverse (double!) trading junk. Pure 100% gambling!
Meback
05-25-2012, 05:59 PM
I like to spend time at the horizon casino. I've done fairly well playing strictly commodities and other inverse etfs. I just dont have the money, to really make a good profit buying $30+ stocks. Lately I'm just nervous. No idea which way things are gonna go, but still placing bets. :nut: Sometimes it makes me sick to my stomach. Scared/ nervous/ concerned about losing big bucks.
e36bmw///
05-25-2012, 07:21 PM
nm
bitteeinbit
05-28-2012, 06:47 AM
Please elaborate.
Euro_Trash
05-28-2012, 07:29 AM
I am also curious - how does the 5.7% translate to 9.34?
davidI
05-28-2012, 08:44 AM
The highest tax rate payable in Alberta is 39%.
If you were to make 9.34% in interest you'd in theory pay 39% tax on that (leaving you with an after-tax gain of approximately 5.7%). Of course, his math doesn't account for the fact that you can shelter your investments through RRSPs and TFSAs or that capital gains are only taxed at 50% and Dividends at 25% or that inflation can make deferring mortgage payments a smart move (assuming you're investing in something that is inflation defensive) etc. etc. etc.
e36bmw///
05-28-2012, 01:18 PM
nm
roopi
05-28-2012, 02:34 PM
Originally posted by e36bmw///
However, that 9.34% is essentially risk free.
How is this risk free?
e36bmw///
05-28-2012, 11:53 PM
nm
e36bmw///
05-29-2012, 02:16 PM
nm
Meback
05-30-2012, 09:41 AM
Major dip in everything, best buying opportunity, might still be some great deals floating around. What is everyone getting into?
Feruk
05-30-2012, 03:03 PM
Waiting for a bottom in oil; not touching anything in that sector.
I've loaded up on:
Lorex Technologies (LOX): Video cameras for security that allow owner to monitor through Skype. Great idea; I could see a lot of interest in their products.
Armistice Gold (AZ): Getting ready for first gold sales. Hoping to get a pop for re-valuation from explorer to producer then dump.
JP Morgan (JPM:US): Recent dip is massively over the top. For $2 billion loss (with still a $5 billion profit that quarter), company's value has declined nearly $50 BILLION since March. I think it's a one time occurrence and people panic sold. Same reason I'm riding SNC Lavalin.
Shorting Dollarama (DOL): Stock's gotten way ahead of itself.
dawerks
05-30-2012, 03:16 PM
The markets are weak but CRUS is lighting it up with 52 week highs.
I am telling you guys, anything linked to Apple is going 45 degrees. It took a while but CRUS is finally getting recognized and it's an easy 2 bagger from here.
All stocks have problems, do you own DD.
cloud7
05-30-2012, 05:52 PM
Originally posted by Feruk
Waiting for a bottom in oil; not touching anything in that sector.
I am the same... not touching oil at least until mid-June.
dawerks
05-30-2012, 07:00 PM
I want to buy NVDA tomorrow, but semi conductors just die in the summer time. I should let it sit and wait, but can I have patience?
bitteeinbit
05-31-2012, 12:10 AM
Haha I was in on DOL between 22$ onwards. Traded it a bit until it got to 26$, then it stagnated a bit over the summer of 2011 and I dumped it just before the massive rally, lol. As the economy improves it'll go down but so long as people are scared it might just stay high. It was such a great little stock to trade. Along with ENB is was predictable, just like clockwork. Now it's a bit crazy...
ZenOps
05-31-2012, 08:58 AM
Its not every year that is a "sell in may and stay away", but its pretty obvious now that this is one of those years.
The bear is out in full force, and I don't fight bears.
Enjoy the summer and forget the market.
z24_wheels
05-31-2012, 01:41 PM
PYN taking a beating.
bigbadboss101
06-01-2012, 08:56 AM
Anyone seen Silverex?
Red@8
06-01-2012, 11:44 AM
Sold some of my gold positions today for healthy gains. I dont mind sitting on some cash.
I couldnt help myself from picking up UUU today.
ZenOps
06-01-2012, 12:48 PM
Gold and silver the only thing holding up today.
Oil is tanking, markets are tanking.
But in general, silver will follow a market crash (if the market is crashing) so the telling tale might be monday.
Gold can sometimes defy the market by either maintaining or gaining, which seems to be happening today. But in general, it may also follow the market down, albeit much less than silver does.
dawerks
06-01-2012, 07:25 PM
Bought some NVDA below $12, couldn't help myself.
Hopefully somber minds come to the market on Monday but not too worried. I want to buy a little splash more of CRUS!
troyl
06-03-2012, 07:51 PM
Does anyone trade US treasuries on RBC Direct Investing??? I am looking for a 30 year, but cannot find any US paper that I can trade.
Thinking I might short it...
ZenOps
06-03-2012, 09:18 PM
Nikkei index is now at a 28 year low.
Those Japanese sure know how to take pain. I'd be raving mad if I had an investment that made nothing in the last 28 years (and on top of that - probably had to pay someone for the priveledge of being in the market)
Manhattan
06-04-2012, 09:25 AM
Originally posted by ZenOps
Nikkei index is now at a 28 year low.
Those Japanese sure know how to take pain. I'd be raving mad if I had an investment that made nothing in the last 28 years (and on top of that - probably had to pay someone for the priveledge of being in the market)
This is offset by the highest rate of savings of any country in the world - around 25%.
dawerks
06-04-2012, 02:52 PM
Originally posted by troyl
Does anyone trade US treasuries on RBC Direct Investing??? I am looking for a 30 year, but cannot find any US paper that I can trade.
Thinking I might short it...
I don't understand. You want to short the 30 year bill? Why? It's probably the lowest its' ever been and you're betting it will go lower?
Where's the upside in that trade? Actually with the exchange rate fees, there's no way you will make money.
I'm missing something about your post...
Criticull
06-04-2012, 03:32 PM
Originally posted by dawerks
I don't understand. You want to short the 30 year bill? Why? It's probably the lowest its' ever been and you're betting it will go lower?
Where's the upside in that trade? Actually with the exchange rate fees, there's no way you will make money.
I'm missing something about your post...
By shorting it you're saying that it will go lower in terms of its price, not in terms of its yield. The price and yield are inversely related. Getting the timing right on the treasury trade is tough - just like Japanese government bonds, the US bonds are eventually doomed. Until then, however, one would expect them to remain a flight to "quality", whatever the hell that means nowadays.
Check out Kyle Bass' latest interviews on J-bonds - especially the hardline one where he defends shorting housing - dude is crazy s-m-r-t.
troyl
06-04-2012, 06:19 PM
Originally posted by dawerks
I don't understand. You want to short the 30 year bill? Why? It's probably the lowest its' ever been and you're betting it will go lower?
Where's the upside in that trade? Actually with the exchange rate fees, there's no way you will make money.
I'm missing something about your post...
Yields are the lowest they have been since Jan 09, if memory serves me correctly. Prices at all time highs....I short the bonds here (sell high) then in a couple months if yields rise (prices fall) I buy the bonds back.
TMV is a 3X short US Long Treasury ETF, which i have used in the past.
I Want to start trading the actual treasuries.
troyl
06-04-2012, 06:19 PM
Originally posted by dawerks
I don't understand. You want to short the 30 year bill? Why? It's probably the lowest its' ever been and you're betting it will go lower?
Where's the upside in that trade? Actually with the exchange rate fees, there's no way you will make money.
I'm missing something about your post...
Yields are the lowest they have been since Jan 09, if memory serves me correctly. Prices at all time highs....I short the bonds here (sell high) then in a couple months if yields rise (prices fall) I buy the bonds back.
TMV is a 3X short US Long Treasury ETF, which i have used in the past.
I Want to start trading the actual treasuries.
Type_S1
06-04-2012, 06:27 PM
PTV - Check it out!
Sugarphreak
06-04-2012, 06:47 PM
...
Type_S1
06-04-2012, 07:09 PM
Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Down 5.33% today with a sickly looking graph? :dunno:
I made a nice little grab at Aberdeen Pacific (FAP) while it was down today... it did a little nose dive and I cough it just before it perked up again. 8.6% yield with monthly payout too, nice place to park funds while the market pitches and yaws a bit.
Also hoping for XRB to do a little hop for in the next week or two.
Look at PTV (Petrovista) over the last 2 weeks. Volumes and prices...I got in a .03...something big is coming with this company...get in well there is still room for profits haha.
Good pickup on FAP...It looks to be correcting nicely.
I am stuck 88% in O&G juniors right now with a few big payoffs but a couple fair losses...I am really thinking of realizing all my gains and sitting on the losers this year haha.
Sugarphreak
06-04-2012, 07:34 PM
...
Type_S1
06-04-2012, 08:08 PM
Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Just to clarify....
not this stock then, lol
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=UK%3APVT&insttype=Stock
http://www.marketwatch.com/search/?value=ptv
dawerks
06-04-2012, 10:09 PM
Thanks for the clarification troy, I knew I missed something!
Good luck on the trade!
I am get a little bit whipped by NVDA but I am going to ride it out.
997TT
06-05-2012, 08:29 AM
I think MT got posted a within the last 2 weeks. Slid with the rest of the mkt but got a fat payoff today. haha.
Anybody buy when it got posted?
Feruk
06-05-2012, 08:58 AM
Originally posted by 997TT
I think MT got posted a within the last 2 weeks. Slid with the rest of the mkt but got a fat payoff today. haha.
Anybody buy when it got posted?
I posted it back in April. Bought under 10, got stopped out at ~12.50. Re-bought in May at ~11.30 and decided to hold and see the results of their "strategic alternatives." Good start to the day. :)
Red@8
06-05-2012, 09:14 AM
^ nicely done!
Criticull
06-05-2012, 05:38 PM
Originally posted by troyl
Yields are the lowest they have been since Jan 09, if memory serves me correctly. Prices at all time highs....I short the bonds here (sell high) then in a couple months if yields rise (prices fall) I buy the bonds back.
TMV is a 3X short US Long Treasury ETF, which i have used in the past.
I Want to start trading the actual treasuries.
Call your broker or sign up for a service like interactive brokers. The direct investing platforms run by big banks are not really made for that kind of specialization. Meanwhile, interactive brokers is one of the cheapest and most versatile solutions out there...so say my friends and colleagues.
broken_legs
06-06-2012, 01:38 PM
Originally posted by troyl
Yields are the lowest they have been since Jan 09, if memory serves me correctly. Prices at all time highs....I short the bonds here (sell high) then in a couple months if yields rise (prices fall) I buy the bonds back.
TMV is a 3X short US Long Treasury ETF, which i have used in the past.
I Want to start trading the actual treasuries.
Assuming that the world is about to fall into another serious financial crisis (like it did every year on cue since 2008) wouldn't yields drop further as money managers pile into treasuries for safety?
What's the thesis on what will drive rates in your investment?
Red@8
06-07-2012, 12:51 PM
Originally posted by Red@8
I couldnt help myself from picking up UUU today.
Sold out of UUU today.
CMW403
06-09-2012, 09:59 AM
Originally posted by Criticull
Call your broker or sign up for a service like interactive brokers. The direct investing platforms run by big banks are not really made for that kind of specialization. Meanwhile, interactive brokers is one of the cheapest and most versatile solutions out there...so say my friends and colleagues.
I've been using the Questrade IQ platform since they came out with the beta version and I think its awesome. Its an actual program now not just a website. I can switch between my TFSA and Margin accounts with on click and its EXTREMELY versatile. You can literally create specific tabs and have different things like order entry, watch lists and charts wherever you want. AND its only $4.95 fee.
Type_S1
06-11-2012, 03:23 PM
Anyone hit up the SEPAC showcase today?
ExtraSlow
06-12-2012, 08:53 AM
What are the thoughts on the Junior Oilsands sector?
ATH vs PXX vs STP?
Is that stuff suitable for a < 1 year timeframe in your opinion?
Meback
06-12-2012, 10:42 AM
in CNQ at 27.70. Wishing for the best... this might even belong in the long term investment trend.
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