Official Short-term Investments Thread

[borN]

Originally posted by KappaSigma
I continue to add to my DonnyCreek position. Basically playing the Montney storm. They continue to add land and de-risk it.

Painted Pony jsut bought I believ 25 net sections of land with a tiny bit of production for $108MM; works our to about ~5K an acre...

Donnycreek has something like 160 net sections or ~100K net acres...

For them its all about derisking now; considering there market cap right now is below $100MM

However the knock on DonnyCreek is that its really all land right now. They've had quite the run up recently...but remember that wells in the Montney costs around ~$10MM, which is substantial for a company of that size.

If you like DonnyCreek, then I suggest you take a look at Yoho Resources. Smaller Montney position, but a large Duvernay asset base and its getting much better economics on its Duvernay wells.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by borN


However the knock on DonnyCreek is that its really all land right now. They've had quite the run up recently...but remember that wells in the Montney costs around ~$10MM, which is substantial for a company of that size.

If you like DonnyCreek, then I suggest you take a look at Yoho Resources. Smaller Montney position, but a large Duvernay asset base and its getting much better economics on its Duvernay wells.

$10MM is what most companies start at. Once they have efficienices the D/C/T is about $6MM or so. I dont see Donny as a 5 year growth story...they de-risk next year any maybe 2014 and then they are gone.

[borN]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


$10MM is what most companies start at. Once they have efficienices the D/C/T is about $6MM or so. I dont see Donny as a 5 year growth story...they de-risk next year any maybe 2014 and then they are gone.

Ok...but most companies don't start off in a resource play that requires horizontal multi-stage fracs costing $10MM to produce. Sure, the Company could take off more than it already has, but there's a lot of risk involved as well seeing as its grown from $0.45 7 months ago to the ~$1.70 its at today without any production.

I'm not saying it's a poor investment. The Company's latest Kakwa well is seeing IP rates of 900 boe/d net (we'll see what the decline is though). I believe there will be a jump once it starts getting production online, but at what pace will they continually add production considering well costs and their small capex budget? The upside could be huge, but be cognizant that the downside is large as well.

My main point is that from a comparative stand point, Yoho is probably the safer investment since its not in its delineation stages and is actually seeing its development plan roll through in an up and coming play with better economics.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by borN


Ok...but most companies don't start off in a resource play that requires horizontal multi-stage fracs costing $10MM to produce. Sure, the Company could take off more than it already has, but there's a lot of risk involved as well seeing as its grown from $0.45 7 months ago to the ~$1.70 its at today without any production.

I'm not saying it's a poor investment. The Company's latest Kakwa well is seeing IP rates of 900 boe/d net (we'll see what the decline is though). I believe there will be a jump once it starts getting production online, but at what pace will they continually add production considering well costs and their small capex budget? The upside could be huge, but be cognizant that the downside is large as well.

My main point is that from a comparative stand point, Yoho is probably the safer investment since its not in its delineation stages and is actually seeing its development plan roll through in an up and coming play with better economics.

I guess I have more appetite for risk. Plus the fact I work for large company in their exploration group....thats all I can say.

[borN]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


I guess I have more appetite for risk. Plus the fact I work for large company in their exploration group....thats all I can say.

Haha, well unfortunately the current market is more focused on production and cash flow. Honestly, I was looking to put a position into DCK myself. We'll see what production comes online at and what it's 2013 capital plans are...

[Red@8]

Any of the TGL guys starting to get curious? I'm looking for a little more downside before hopping back in.

[KappaSigma]

Originally posted by borN


Haha, well unfortunately the current market is more focused on production and cash flow. Honestly, I was looking to put a position into DCK myself. We'll see what production comes online at and what it's 2013 capital plans are...

So they recently announced the tying in of a well plus their 2nd in early January. Just spudded the 3rd well. And the perpetual/Torumaline land sale for $155M further confirmed land value in the strip....

[borN]

Originally posted by KappaSigma


So they recently announced the tying in of a well plus their 2nd in early January. Just spudded the 3rd well. And the perpetual/Torumaline land sale for $155M further confirmed land value in the strip....

Yup - a pretty good ops update. On top of that, Yoho jumped ~20-25% on the news of the Encana Duvernay JV...

[dawerks]

RIM got thumped for making a smart move. Bought more :nut:

[kaput]

.

[themack89]

Originally posted by dawerks
RIM got thumped for making a smart move. Bought more :nut:

Look how hard RIM got "thumped" for making a lack of smart moves for an extended period of time lol.

There are easier and less risky trades out there.

[msommers]

What's your guys' impression of PennWest at the moment?

[themack89]

Originally posted by msommers
What's your guys' impression of PennWest at the moment?

Market and PWE is not in a great spot right now to be buying or selling. Should sit tight for a bit if you want it.

[KappaSigma]

What a stellar 2013 so far; my two juniors are up big time!

MGM and Donnycreek

[bigbadboss101]

Originally posted by msommers
What's your guys' impression of PennWest at the moment?

My friend at RBC said they dont recommend PennWest or Pengrowth.

[KappaSigma]

Lets go NWT Canol!

[woodywoodford]

I'm curious about your stock picking strategies... seems to be a lot of coverage in this thread.

Do you guys generally focus on one or two sectors for your picks, but rely on other peoples advice for anything that falls outside of those, or do you just follow the whole market? I generally keep up with oil as much as I can, and a few of the bigger names (ie RIM), but when it comes to things like gold I dont know sh*t.

[asp integra]

Go RIM! you guys think it will continue to climb till the bb10 lanuch? any ideas what will happen after?

[asp integra]

Go RIM! you guys think it will continue to climb till the bb10 lanuch? any ideas what will happen after?

[Pacman]

Originally posted by asp integra
Go RIM! you guys think it will continue to climb till the bb10 lanuch? any ideas what will happen after?

I hope so. I'm holding March $16 Rimm call options that I bought for 25 cents in late December

They were up 70% today :)

[Red@8]

Been picking up TGL the last couple of days. A little risky perhaps, but Ive typically done well on this stock numerous times in the past so I couldnt resist at this price.

[woodywoodford]

Just made a pleasant 17% in under 24 hours on 56 feb calls on ERX. Risky but I had a feeling it'd work out...

Kinda wish I didn't set that limit sell so low though haha

[icky2unk]

RIM is just a fire holy

[roopi]

Originally posted by icky2unk
RIM is just a fire holy

It has been a great run. Hopefully with see some more of this tomorrow since the US Markets are closed today.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by roopi


It has been a great run. Hopefully with see some more of this tomorrow since the US Markets are closed today.

Up from 8% to 16% now. hating my buddy who bought at 10 right now hah

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by icky2unk


Up from 8% to 16% now. hating my buddy who bought at 10 right now hah
Hating paperwork for stopping me from buying 12 calls for 2.40 a couple weeks ago... (at $7 currently).

Whatever, I'm a little late but decided to buy some march $18 calls anyway. Should hopefully be able to make a little money off the hype at least.

[themack89]

Holiday arbitrage, anybody?? Just make sure you are there at pre-market open (ie access to after hours trading!!!)

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by themack89
Holiday arbitrage, anybody?? Just make sure you are there at pre-market open (ie access to after hours trading!!!)
The real question is how the f do we get that? Does rbcdi offer it?

[roopi]

Originally posted by woodywoodford

The real question is how the f do we get that? Does rbcdi offer it?

You can trade afterhours/premarket with RBC. You just need to call your trade in. The only afterhours trading for RIM is on the NASDAQ though so you would have to be buying/selling RIMM in the US.

[dawerks]

Congrats on the near 3 bagger Roopi! I am still holding mine and I'm very very happy at buying on the dips.

As I said before there are very few good Canadian companies to buy and fundies are holding/buying this gem back up again. Would love to have a 10 bagger and this is a definite long term hold again.

I think this company will make another comeback (like they always do). Fun times!

[roopi]

Originally posted by dawerks
Congrats on the near 3 bagger Roopi! I am still holding mine and I'm very very happy at buying on the dips.

As I said before there are very few good Canadian companies to buy and fundies are holding/buying this gem back up again. Would love to have a 10 bagger and this is a definite long term hold again.

I think this company will make another comeback (like they always do). Fun times!

Thx. It's getting to a point where RIM has become too big of a holding in my portfolio so time to sell some this week but I will definately keep a good chunk for a longer hold.

BB10 looks great but what I really like is the QNX that is being used over the other industries such as auto and health care. It doesn't generate a lot of revenue at he moment but over the next 2-3 years I think it will pay a huge role.

[davidI]

Woot woot! Passed my CFA Level 1 and got a new job offer today.

Unfortunately, I'll have to liquidate my Canadian Assets to go non-resident so between that and how busy I'll be with the new job, I doubt I'll have much time for trading or blog updates anymore. I would like to get back at it at some point though.

Hope everyone has had successful trades thus far in 2013!

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by davidI
Woot woot! Passed my CFA Level 1 and got a new job offer today.

Unfortunately, I'll have to liquidate my Canadian Assets to go non-resident so between that and how busy I'll be with the new job, I doubt I'll have much time for trading or blog updates anymore. I would like to get back at it at some point though.

Hope everyone has had successful trades thus far in 2013!

Still waiting on my results email... The anticipation is killing me. What time did yours come in?

Edit: Shit son, 3 minutes later and it shows up. Passed! >70% in all sections except corp. finance, fra and quant, which is more or less what I would have guessed as my weak spots. This guys getting drunk tonight!

[Pacman]

Originally posted by Pacman


I hope so. I'm holding March $16 Rimm call options that I bought for 25 cents in late December

They were up 70% today :)

Those RIMM options are now at $3!

Unfortunately, I sold at $1.45:banghead: :banghead:

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by Pacman


Those RIMM options are now at $3!

Unfortunately, I sold at $1.45:banghead: :banghead:

I bought march 18 call's last night for 2.40... just my luck the stock stalls out right after :banghead: :banghead:
But still, I think it was scotia has a $23 12 mo target, so should still make money.

[Pacman]

Originally posted by woodywoodford


I bought march 18's last night for 2.40... just my luck the stock stalls out right after :banghead: :banghead:
But still, I think it was scotia has a $23 12 mo target, so should still make money.

I'm looking at buying a put on the March $16 or $17's. Just going to watch it over the next day or so.

[93VR6]

Any opinions on Bonavista Energy (BNP on the TSX)?

Recently cut their dividend which was obviously unsustainable, and I don't see any reason for the stock to go too much lower. To me it looks like a lot of upside from here but I would like to hear if anyone else has some more information for me to digest.

[roopi]

Originally posted by davidI
Woot woot! Passed my CFA Level 1 and got a new job offer today.

Unfortunately, I'll have to liquidate my Canadian Assets to go non-resident so between that and how busy I'll be with the new job, I doubt I'll have much time for trading or blog updates anymore. I would like to get back at it at some point though.

Hope everyone has had successful trades thus far in 2013!



Originally posted by woodywoodford


Still waiting on my results email... The anticipation is killing me. What time did yours come in?

Edit: Shit son, 3 minutes later and it shows up. Passed! >70% in all sections except corp. finance, fra and quant, which is more or less what I would have guessed as my weak spots. This guys getting drunk tonight!

Congratulations to both of you. Not an easy exam too pass but well worth the work.

:thumbsup: :clap:

[davidI]

Originally posted by woodywoodford


Still waiting on my results email... The anticipation is killing me. What time did yours come in?

Edit: Shit son, 3 minutes later and it shows up. Passed! >70% in all sections except corp. finance, fra and quant, which is more or less what I would have guessed as my weak spots. This guys getting drunk tonight!

Congrats man!! I'm still amazed I passed. I really didn't put in that many study hours. I won't be tackling LII until 2014....

I'm stoked on the new job more than the pass, but what a great day overall!

Enjoy the sauce!!

[davidI]

Originally posted by roopi


Congratulations to both of you. Not an easy exam too pass but well worth the work.

:thumbsup: :clap:

Gracias Hombre!

[bmeier]

RIM projections?

Stock down 2.5 % today but what realistic projections do you have ? I had bought a bunch around 10.00 but cant decide if i should hold buy or sell now.

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by bmeier
RIM projections?

Stock down 2.5 % today but what realistic projections do you have ? I had bought a bunch around 10.00 but cant decide if i should hold buy or sell now.

I'm thinking 20 dollars is attainable, but who knows, maybe all the hype has already swallowed the upside.

[ZenOps]

Someone just threw AAPL off a cliff.

Am I reading it right. Down 10.7% after hours? Ow.

[woodywoodford]

BNN just confirmed, down 9% in after hours. Tomorrow's gonna be an interesting day.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[dawerks]

Roopi; I won't sell till I have reason too. Are you getting a better return somewhere else that's tempting you to sell RIM? Please let us know!

[woodywoodford]

This rim stuff is killing me... down 4.5% at open, now 5% in positive territory. My heart can't handle all this movement!

[themack89]

Originally posted by e36bmw///


I'd say sell the stock, buy the put and call for a straddle.

Do not buy a straddle... Implied volatility is near a yearly high. Way too much downside risk, even if you are expecting the swings to continue you'd better have your finger on the trigger to liquidate that shit.

[woodywoodford]

^^ long straddle would do it

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictionary/terms/straddle.gif

[themack89]

Originally posted by woodywoodford
^^ long straddle would do it

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/dictionary/terms/straddle.gif

Do you understand how options are priced? A straddle is how you go long on volatility.

IE If you expect the massive swings to continue, then by all means. But you are not getting a good price for this play.

[supe]

I'm a holder of Netflix, I wouldn't mind any recommendations right now.

[dawerks]

Netflix PE of around 600. I think you should hold till it hit's Amazon's trailing PE of 3000. So 5 bagger right there!

I'm curious to know what factors lead you to buy it it in the first place?

APPL's PE (minus cash on hand) is 7. Who says Mr. Market is rational? :)

[supe]

I see their PE of 600, but me being a techy I am absolutely confident that streaming is the future and netflix is leading the way. Pretty much every one I know that is paying for netflix loves it and I don't see why anyone wouldn't pay for it at only $8 a month.

So I bought more on the merit of the service itself and not on any financial metrics. But, I do have some knowledge of the stock market.

There was also many rumors of netflix being sold, especially after ichan bought in. One of the rumors being Apple. It makes so much sense for Apple to buy netflix because it would almost guarantee the success of apple TV, but apple is apple and will probably try to build something themselves.

For now I put in a stop order.

[supe]

I thought you were joking about amazon, holy crap.

[dawerks]

If you saw the merit of buying it on your own terms, there's no need to put a stop order unless you're worried about something changing fundamentally.

Or if you need the money (ie can't afford to lose the gains). You only need one winner per lifetime of trading. That's the only good thing about the market, you can make millions of mistakes (I KNOW!) but one 7 bagger or 12 bagger makes it all right. :)

Selling too early is the biggest mistake most people make. They're happy with 10% gain then the stock turns into a 200 bagger... oops!!

[Inzane]

^ Re: Netflix. Take a look at that stock's 3+ year trend and then decide if you can handle that.

[icky2unk]

RIM :(

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by icky2unk
RIM :(

Jeeeesus... anybody know whats bringing it down? Those march calls are killing me :(

[icky2unk]

Yesterday was the Lenovo buyout rumor was turned down as being taken out of context, today I'm just assuming people are scared for tomorrow & selling off profits. I bought in today as an opportunity to see some big upside for tomorrows announcement.

Calgary's BB10 event was yesterday for cell phone carriers, my friend said if marketed and showcased properly with the right applications it would be worth switching to. So lets hope RIM hits a home run tomorrow and nails the superbowl commercial.

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by icky2unk
Yesterday was the Lenovo buyout rumor was turned down as being taken out of context, today I'm just assuming people are scared for tomorrow & selling off profits. I bought in today as an opportunity to see some big upside for tomorrows announcement.

Calgary's BB10 event was yesterday for cell phone carriers, my friend said if marketed and showcased properly with the right applications it would be worth switching to. So lets hope RIM hits a home run tomorrow and nails the superbowl commercial.

Damn. Let's hope its a good month.

Edit: good news! They're only down 6.2% currently...

[Red@8]

Anyone with thoughts on IMG or PGF both on tsx.

[woodywoodford]

Holy eff RIM... Up 6% in early trading, then down to negative 6, now down 3...

[dawerks]

RIM is no more. It's Blackberry. (Wonder if they will change their stock symbol?)

The 10 looks promising but I am not a techie (yup, I don't even have a cell phone). I'll leave it to the young people to tell me if it's good (or whatever the hip word is now)

I was planning on selling on news but I decided to hold as it would be really hard to buy back in again (the volatility is expected). Waiting and seeing.

[asp integra]

RIM down 12 % right now, noooooooo. hopefully everyone loves the bb10 and stock shoots up

[Akumaz]

whats everyones thoughts on RIM, i bought in a bit late, so todays huge drop killed me
its hard to tell right now, but i dont know to hold and wait to sell on news
or take a lose right now
to fellow RIM holders

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by Akumaz
whats everyones thoughts on RIM, i bought in a bit late, so todays huge drop killed me
its hard to tell right now, but i dont know to hold and wait to sell on news
or take a lose right now
to fellow RIM holders

Over Reaction in my opinion. The release date of March hurts BlackBerry but not by much. BB has a 5% market share in the states, I don't see the delayed release swaying over any new people anyways.

BB focused on the core countries that it has the potential to sell to current users & potentially new ones, which is a strategy I have to agree with. However, everyone seems to believe the USA is the way of the world and because they didn't focus the USA they are terrible. The only thing I agree with is why spend 4 million on a commercial for a product out in a month.

The stock is way too volitile right now but give or take a month when the device has had time to sell, that will be the real test of BB

[Sugarphreak]

...

[bmeier]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


I've been looking at these drops with dollar signs in my eyes, haha

I waited until it got under 13$ today and bought a few thousand shares. A bit of a risk, but I think it will pan out.

really glad i got out when i posed the question last week...

i might buy in if it drops to 12.50 but not sure yet.

[icky2unk]

TBE probably a good buy right now

[Feruk]

Originally posted by icky2unk
TBE probably a good buy right now
Yarr, I own them. Not a good start to the year. I still think they're worth over $3 though.

[Akumaz]

why such a big drop in TBE?
"Unaudited Q4 and full year 2012 corporate performance met or exceeded internal expectations and street consensus. "

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by Akumaz
why such a big drop in TBE?
"Unaudited Q4 and full year 2012 corporate performance met or exceeded internal expectations and street consensus. "

They had shut downs that were longer then expected so had to cut down their 2013 guidance.

Still an over-reaction in my opinion. Cut it down 1200bbls/d but I think they will still perform throughout the year.

Not too worried, just wish I had bought now instead of before :P

[Akumaz]

i took a loss on RIM, and called it a day
looks like it is leveling out after i took my loss =(

only in on CNQ now, but not much going on there, thats for the long hold
looking for a short term/mid term purchase
any one have suggestions?

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Akumaz
looking for a short term/mid term purchase
any one have suggestions?
I'm picking up some Magna next week for medium term hold. Car sector is a derivative of housing in the USA and this one's a supplier of parts for the auto industry. Plus unlike the car companies, these guys aren't on the edge of insolvency. Might go sideways or down for a bit, but I think it'll do well for capital appreciation in 2013. Plus there's a small dividend.

[GoChris]

Blasted TBE, I bought in weeks ago. Maybe I'll get more but if they might only be a $3 stock I won't really invest enough to make more than a few bucks off them. I have very small amounts to play with.

[bmeier]

TBE looking decent right now. Going to watch monday morning and see if it sinks further or recovers before i buy. 17 % is a pretty big drop, and with lower production i wonder if they will be able to keep the dame dividend or if it will be reduced.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[bmeier]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


RIM is up 6% this morning, mwaahahaha! I couldn't have played that any better if I tried. I love it when a plan comes together!

Normally I would sell as soon as I get 4%, but I think I am going to let this ride. Rumors are that Bell is completely sold out of Z10's, which means anticipated market share was underestimated, which typically reflects in the stock in a big way.

If they increase their market share in any kind of substantial way it could mean a good 10$ or even 20$ gain in the stock price within two or three months.

10.8% and counting...

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Inzane]

I take it you guys talking about BB are playing the Nasdaq and not the TSX? The price is more or less the same on both, but the % gain is higher on the nasdaq so far.

Does no one trade on the TSX?

[roopi]

Originally posted by Inzane
I take it you guys talking about BB are playing the Nasdaq and not the TSX? The price is more or less the same on both, but the % gain is higher on the nasdaq so far.

Does no one trade on the TSX?

The gain is pretty much the same. :dunno:

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by bmeier
TBE looking decent right now. Going to watch monday morning and see if it sinks further or recovers before i buy. 17 % is a pretty big drop, and with lower production i wonder if they will be able to keep the dame dividend or if it will be reduced.

I foresee it not being a big issue at all. The dividend was sustainable before they made an acquisition and long before that.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I'm out for 11%... haha

Holy crap, that little play just net me more than I make in a month working

I will go back in after the inevitable correction after this unsustainable lurch

You'll be back in before you know it hah.

I think BB is going to surprise a lot of people

[Sugarphreak]

...

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Just look at Netflix when investors realized their market share had increased substantially... BB will probably go the same way

I think people were surprised market share increased in general lol.

I just want to see RIM back in green in my portfolio hah

[dawerks]

Nice day for BB. Was getting a little worried about market reaction, but today's move was a powerful signal that the stock should race to last big resistance of 18ish.

Not planning on selling anytime soon. The 'big worry' period is over. Time to forget about the stock and look for a new idea to worry about!

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Inzane]

Originally posted by roopi
The gain is pretty much the same. :dunno:

When I looked this morning, the iphone stock app (what I checked first) showed BBRY at + 12.xx% and BB.TO at +4.xx%.

When I look now, it says BBRY +15.0%, and BB.TO at +9.4%.

So, not the same.

However the stock PRICE is identical, +/- a cent or two.

:dunno:

[icky2unk]

Go BB Go!

[EG STyLeZ]

where can you find the daily short positions on a TSX stock?

[roopi]

Originally posted by EG STyLeZ
where can you find the daily short positions on a TSX stock?

I've never seen a daily report before. I can't see te benefit of a report like this either since a lot of short interest is used for hedging.

http://www.tmx.com/en/news_events/exchange_bulletins/short_positions_2013.html

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Rat Fink]

.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[woodywoodford]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
dropped into 3 new stocks today; Fortis, Enbridge and Alimentation Couche Tard... whatever the fuck that is

What made you pick a stock you don't know anything about?


Originally posted by Sugarphreak


....and SOLD! for a 4% gain

(and for a quick gain no less)

Technical analysis?

[themack89]

Originally posted by woodywoodford


What made you pick a stock you don't know anything about?

(and for a quick gain no less)

Technical analysis?

Whats the same reason you pick any stock? You think you can make money!

[dawerks]

You only need 18 correct 4% trades to double your money! :rofl:

[roopi]

Originally posted by dawerks
You only need 18 correct 4% trades to double your money! :rofl:

Sounds so simple. :)

What's on the watch list these days? Have some cash siting around and looking for some ideas.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Sugarphreak]

...