Official Short-term Investments Thread

[davidI]

Originally posted by themack89
Interactive Brokers blows TD and Quest out of the water (those are the only three brokers I've ever used so I can't comment on any others).

I've used all 3. IB has the best charting software / interface and rates IMO. TD provides the best research access. QT sucks at everything.

[asp integra]

Originally posted by Manhattan
What's happening to Teck? :banghead:



Originally posted by themack89


Copper is getting hammered.

Actually, relative to the beginning of 2010, Copper is at a nice buy point.


Spring 09 I was doing one of my last projects of my Degree and I was doing a report on Teck. The price was right around $3/share. God damn do I regret not buying any stock, it was over $50 a share only a few months later :banghead:

[asp integra]

Fuck me, BB down 28% now

[davidI]

Originally posted by asp integra
Fuck me, BB down 28% now

And NKO up 23% yesterday.

I'm happy to just be watching from the sidelines!

[GQBalla]

bought in IMG at 4.23 yesterday

[GQBalla]

and im out for 5.5% gain

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by asp integra
Fuck me, BB down 28% now

TH needs to go

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Sugarphreak]

...

[themack89]

Ahhhhh the humanity...

Whats happening to the smart phone companies haha. Samsung, BB, AAPL all been hammered YTD.

Google seems to be doing okay though.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[themack89]

Wait a second... Were people actually investing in BB? When there was other options like apple goog samsung?

Least likely to fail??.... hmmm...

@Sugarphreak: I am praying for you and got my fingers crossed.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[sabad66]

I would say Nokia has a better chance of going up over bbry, but that's just my opinion. (And my hope since I have some shares :D)

[sabad66]

But good luck anyways... Definitely ballsy especially for $30k worth!

[Sugarphreak]

..

[rx7_turbo2]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


It is a very short play, stocks tend to bouce a little at the bottom

Hopefully it doesn't drop off the face of the earth tomororw, lol!!

You've got bigger balls than me;)

[Meback]

Sugarphreak.. Lol, I trade like you, but please exercise some caution, sometimes we can get caught with our pants down and it takes years too recover those loses. Best of luck. I hope you make a killing tomorrow.

[GQBalla]

I was debating only buying a thousand bb

Damn sugarphreaks got big ones

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ercchry]

where did you buy at yesterday? ...probably made a cool $100 off that $30k :rofl:

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by themack89
Wait a second... Were people actually investing in BB? When there was other options like apple goog samsung?

Least likely to fail??.... hmmm...

@Sugarphreak: I am praying for you and got my fingers crossed.

When they released a new OS it was a big risk reward play. It's easy to make a statement when things went south.

They didn't perform plain and simple. Everything was lined up and could have worked out to a huge return. On a stock that is 38% shorted, one win is a damn big one.

In the same way TSLA was a huge risk reward, but they performed last quarter and as a result look where they are at. They too were 35%+ shorted before their last earnings.

At the end of the day it's 3% of my portfolio so i'm not too concerned on my gamble. I'll hold another quarter and see what happens.

[themack89]

Originally posted by icky2unk


When they released a new OS it was a big risk reward play. It's easy to make a statement when things went south.

They didn't perform plain and simple. Everything was lined up and could have worked out to a huge return. On a stock that is 38% shorted, one win is a damn big one.

In the same way TSLA was a huge risk reward, but they performed last quarter and as a result look where they are at. They too were 35%+ shorted before their last earnings.

At the end of the day it's 3% of my portfolio so i'm not too concerned on my gamble. I'll hold another quarter and see what happens.

Disagree... BB Is competing against titans and has been losing for years. I think it is delusional to believe one "maybe" product release is going to scoop back all that lost market share, ESPECIALLY considering the nature of the products.

I remember arguing with my buddies good luck on BB haha during the 10 release. I'll admit I ate my words for a while on its run up to $17 but it seems now the dust settles.

Either way I would never actually trade it haha

[supe]

themack, your argument is more a long investment argument, of which I do agree with you. This being a short term thread, these guys are more involved in the day to day swings.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[rx7_turbo2]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


a couple cents over 10

Yeah I was expecting more fireworks today... but is just fizzling along, which is code for "get the fuck out". Stock bounced about as well as a dead cat.

haha, I just sold my position now... couple hundred bucks, wooooooo... lol


You Sir have brass balls :bigpimp: Glad you came out on top, no matter how low the return was.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by themack89


Disagree... BB Is competing against titans and has been losing for years. I think it is delusional to believe one "maybe" product release is going to scoop back all that lost market share, ESPECIALLY considering the nature of the products.

I remember arguing with my buddies good luck on BB haha during the 10 release. I'll admit I ate my words for a while on its run up to $17 but it seems now the dust settles.

Either way I would never actually trade it haha

It wasn't about beating Apple or Google/Android it was about keping market share which they failed to do.

By your same logic no one should have ever invested in Apple. Now look where Apple is. Same could be said when Apple first launched the iPhone. It's easy to point out flaws in the company after the fact but like I said earlier it could have gone either way. Also BB10 has only been out just over 4-5 months. I don't quite think a brand new OS can be measured as success/failure in that time frame.

IOS didn't take off in 4-5 months, it took off after 2 years.

On topic of short term, there was a lot of upside to ride the stock a couple quarter and see what happens.

Risk reward right?

[themack89]

Originally posted by icky2unk


It wasn't about beating Apple or Google/Android it was about keping market share which they failed to do.

By your same logic no one should have ever invested in Apple. Now look where Apple is. Same could be said when Apple first launched the iPhone. It's easy to point out flaws in the company after the fact but like I said earlier it could have gone either way. Also BB10 has only been out just over 4-5 months. I don't quite think a brand new OS can be measured as success/failure in that time frame.

IOS didn't take off in 4-5 months, it took off after 2 years.

On topic of short term, there was a lot of upside to ride the stock a couple quarter and see what happens.

Risk reward right?

You kind of just said what I just said... about the market share. But yes they do affect eachother, if BB starts selling 4 million BB10's per month thats certainly cutting into the sales of iPhone's and Androids and Galaxy's.

I heavily disagree with the investing in Apple comment, although I'm not sure which product you're referring to? Because the nature of their relevant markets were vastly different at the onset of original product lines.

i.e. Blackberry, around 2000, released essentially a two way Radio and this was around the same time Apple released their first iPod. BB Makes a push into text messaging and emailing in 2003, four years later in 2007 Apple releases the first iPhone. In both cases both stocks trended pretty hard up for the following six months. In that sense, they seem similar...

But a "game changing" product release is much different than an "evolutionary" product release, or am I wrong? The first iPhone was a game changer, I fail to see how the BB10 was a game changer. So I think you're calling me out comparing apples to oranges.

Every consecutive release of the iPhone was not an attempt to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, but the impression goes around that BB10 was aiming to do so. Uphill battle for RIM =/= Business as usual for Apple.

I concede on the short term comment... Short term is different to everybody, I know some guys who think holding over an hour is an eternity and I know some guys who think a month is day trading. Its all relative.

I agree with you though, anybody is an expert in hindsight. For me, this wasn't hindsight. It was a guess that RIM wouldn't be saved by the BB10, and the "big picture" I used to defend my story is based off information available BEFORE the BB10 was actually released. Need evidence? Here's me saying exactly that in Dec 2012, when everyone was getting super stoked about BB10.

http://forums.beyond.ca/st2/official-short-term-investments-thread/showthread.php?s=&postid=4048135#post4048135

I was obviously wrong in the short term, but I'm not bullshitting lol.

[Ntense_SpecV]

I lost my shit with this play <RVX> but thought you guys would try to make it work short term. I have no choice but to keep long term and hope I can break even eventually.

http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?qm_symbol=RVX

[Sugarphreak]

...

[-relk-]

Its a little much to look through all the pages in this thread, and searching didnt turn up much so Ill just ask...

Im a rookie to the markets right now, my old man tells me what to look at and buy currently, and its been working out, but I want to learn some more. Anyone got any recommendations on books/sites to look at to get a good idea of playing the stock market and whatnot?

Excuse my vagueness, as I am pretty new to this stuff and don't know much of the lingo. I have a basic understanding of how mutual funds/ETFs work, but am looking for some more information for the future. I would go pick up a book at chapters, but thought I should see if there are any recommendations out there first before I go and just randomly choose one that appeals to me. Thanks all!

[woodywoodford]

My first stop would be investopedia.com. The problem, especially with books, is that they all assume some base level of understanding.


Anybody have any thoughts on Pengrowth (PGF)?

[revelations]

All I know is the more time passes the less market "analysts" seem to know even a week ahead.

We were "supposed" to be in a market correction phase, only to make new highs now. Looking at the DJ30 monthly chart, I "predict" a level up to around 16,000 then back down.

Another worry, since 2009, the average # of trades per day has decreased to 1999 levels on the DOW/NYSE so something isnt right on a macro scale. In 40 years this has never happened.

Only players really left in the market are, the players (institutions).

[-relk-]

Originally posted by woodywoodford
My first stop would be investopedia.com. The problem, especially with books, is that they all assume some base level of understanding.
The site you mentioned is great, and what I was looking for!

[themack89]

Anybody wanna short AAPL

[roopi]

Originally posted by themack89
Anybody wanna short AAPL

Why?

[themack89]

Originally posted by roopi


Why?

Exit growth phase, enter maturity phase?

Looks like Angel of death pattern.

[davidI]

I don't know how anyonce can play the market these days when ol' Ben and the Fed basically control everything with QE and the potential for tapering!

[themack89]

Originally posted by davidI
I don't know how anyonce can play the market these days when ol' Ben and the Fed basically control everything with QE and the potential for tapering!

Close your eyes and keep pressing buy until your buying power runs out.

[davidI]

Originally posted by themack89


Close your eyes and keep pressing buy until your buying power runs out.

Until he decides to start tapering earlier than expected and you lose your shirt!

[icky2unk]

Picked up 5k More Shares of TBE Today.

Unfortunate mishaps this year but I expect recovery in the longer short term

[bmeier]

Originally posted by icky2unk
Picked up 5k More Shares of TBE Today.

Unfortunate mishaps this year but I expect recovery in the longer short term

what price did you pick them up at? i missed out on the 1.84... but have a limit order in waiting to see before i get more.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by bmeier


what price did you pick them up at? i missed out on the 1.84... but have a limit order in waiting to see before i get more.

I picked them up at 1.96. My average overall is close to 2.05 now.

I'd be extremely happy if I got in at 1.84 hah

[bmeier]

Originally posted by icky2unk


I picked them up at 1.96. My average overall is close to 2.05 now.

I'd be extremely happy if I got in at 1.84 hah

ya me too...

what do you have your stop loss set at? all my stops got triggered so i am going to buy back and set a lower stop.

[GQBalla]

picked up even more TBE as well today. Im at 2.04 overall.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by bmeier


ya me too...

what do you have your stop loss set at? all my stops got triggered so i am going to buy back and set a lower stop.

Personally I just kept it naked because I bought in 2011. It's more of a long term hold for me riding the dividend until 2015.

[bmeier]

makes sense, do you take the dividend as cash? or are you in the SRP? or drip?

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by bmeier
makes sense, do you take the dividend as cash? or are you in the SRP? or drip?

I usually wait till Dec move all the Dividends into my TSFA and reinvest into TBE at that time hah. That way I don't have to contribute my own cash.

[Feruk]

I bought TBE at $2.89... Based on how scattered their assets are, I think the market is over reacting a little here. Having said that though, I don't know how many locations they have on the books at Primate.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by Feruk
I bought TBE at $2.89... Based on how scattered their assets are, I think the market is over reacting a little here. Having said that though, I don't know how many locations they have on the books at Primate.

"Maintaining our Outperform; target reduced to $2.50 (from
$3.25). Overall a disappointing release as we believed the
issues at Primate were resolved and in the rearview mirror. At
this point the dividend is intact, supported by the strength in
underlying commodity prices. Management has reset
expectations (Primate <5% of corporate volumes by year end)
and execution over the next few quarters will be required to
regain market confidence."

Looking like 10% but closer to 5% of their volumes by year end.

[icky2unk]

Just dumped another 10k shares into TBE...1 hit wonder common

[asp integra]

Originally posted by icky2unk
Just dumped another 10k shares into TBE...1 hit wonder common

TBE is at 1.80 right now, a good buy?

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by asp integra


TBE is at 1.80 right now, a good buy?

Just depends on what risk you are willing to take. Jr's have been a shit show this year.

Mind you TBE has it's first mishap at primate at 2.60 and dropped to 2 bucks. Came back to 2.40 not long after and then tanked again because of primate issue number 2. Primate only accounts fo 10% of their production.

[bmeier]

Originally posted by icky2unk
Just dumped another 10k shares into TBE...1 hit wonder common

lol how many shares do you hold now?

[oogaboogie]

Make sure you do your own DD on TBE... All my senses tell me is there are other places to make money.

[themack89]

Yes, I am curious as to why so many here are jumping on TBE. Seems like they are biting off more than they can chew with their derivatives activities, offside $19 per boe (unrealized) lol.

And are they drilling vert or horizontal?

[mac_82]

Anyone else following Connacher (CLL)?

$0.07 to $0.185 in the last 2 days.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by themack89
Yes, I am curious as to why so many here are jumping on TBE. Seems like they are biting off more than they can chew with their derivatives activities, offside $19 per boe (unrealized) lol.

And are they drilling vert or horizontal?

Can you explain the derivative activities?

They drill both. Looks like the majority of their drills (~80-90%) are verticals which work well for the heavy oil pools they're in. You don't wanna drill a horizontal into some of that shit.

[AudiPWR]

Anybody else crazy about Canacol?

I have high hopes for this company. I got in at $2.76 and it is $3.70 now. Lots of speculation say $8.00 is likely by end of 2013

[AudiPWR]

Also, Tag Oil looks promising.

[themack89]

Originally posted by Feruk


Can you explain the derivative activities?

They drill both. Looks like the majority of their drills (~80-90%) are verticals which work well for the heavy oil pools they're in. You don't wanna drill a horizontal into some of that shit.

Doesn't look to me like 80-90% of their wells are vertical... Maybe like half. If you want the excel sheet for this send me a PM.

*Edit. It does seem strange how their Horizontal production is so low, but could possibly be wells that aren't online yet, or, as you said, maybe Horizontal drilling sucks cack for heavy oil. I don't know.

http://i.imgur.com/JtqlRF2.png

http://i.imgur.com/07R1UxT.png

http://i.imgur.com/YirU4zf.png

[oogaboogie]

Originally posted by AudiPWR
Also, Tag Oil looks promising.

Canacol looks good.
Tag Oil I wouldn't buy.

[AudiPWR]

What don't you like about Tag? They seem to be doing very well right now, nothing but positive news from them and they are getting great results with their drilling.

Just curious.

[Feruk]

I think you're classifying directional wells with horizontals where as they should be classified with verticals. I looked this morning and count 14 horizontals rig released since January 2012 vs 206 total wells, so 93% vertical in the last 18 months.

So the derivatives program is basically hedging, right?

[themack89]

Originally posted by Feruk
I think you're classifying directional wells with horizontals where as they should be classified with verticals. I looked this morning and count 14 horizontals rig released since January 2012 vs 206 total wells, so 93% vertical in the last 18 months.

So the derivatives program is basically hedging, right?

Ok lol, however you want to label it. I believe this data originates from the ERCB (now the AER)--I'm just the messenger, so I didn't classify anything. If you think they are labelling this stuff wrong then you should make sure they know, because they are a pretty big deal and a lot of people use this information.

And derivatives activities usually means hedging yes.

I'm not trying to shit on the company, but as someone else mentioned there are probably easier companies to invest your money in.

But seriously. Call the ERCB/AER and tell them they are wrong with how they are labelling these wellbores.

[oogaboogie]

Originally posted by AudiPWR
What don't you like about Tag? They seem to be doing very well right now, nothing but positive news from them and they are getting great results with their drilling.

Just curious.

Just based on the technicals... East coast needs to do well in order for this to go up. I just think there are other companies that could make you more money.

I like CEU.TO, TOT.TO, WRG.TO

[msommers]

Originally posted by themack89
maybe Horizontal drilling sucks cack for heavy oil. I don't know.


Depends entirely how heavy it is and what formation it is - mainly what the perm is like. I'm on a project around Peace River drilling heavy oil HZs and some of the bigger companies like Shell and Baytex have some massive multi-lateral wells being very successful.

[sabad66]

Anyone else in NFK? They are a 45% partner in an exploration well in Tunisia. They've drilled it to TD, cased, installed production tubing, and now waiting for well tests. If all goes well, people are saying this could be a 10 bagger or even better.

Do your research of course, but this is a very rare opportunity for a possible 10-15x your money...

[bmeier]

Originally posted by sabad66
Anyone else in NFK? They are a 45% partner in an exploration well in Tunisia. They've drilled it to TD, cased, installed production tubing, and now waiting for well tests. If all goes well, people are saying this could be a 10 bagger or even better.

Do your research of course, but this is a very rare opportunity for a possible 10-15x your money...

funny you should bring this up. i have been following this stock for sometime. it literally went down to 3 cents last week and has been on fire since %50 a day. its an extremely risky play, not sure if this a pump and dump or if they actually may have something. time will tell.

i have a small amount of money in there for fun hopefully it skyrockets!

[sabad66]

Haha yep, definitely up there in riskiness. The way I see it, it's either lose all of your investment or get 10-15x your money.

I was in for $1500 at 9.5c, but avgd down by getting another $1500 worth at 4.5c last week when it dropped. Funny thing is there was no real reason for that big drop (besides ppl getting worried about the well instability)... My guess is just some big players manipulating it and triggering everyone's stops. I'm jealous of the people who had the balls to buy it at 2.5c.

Should find out within 2 weeks or less.... Good luck to us!

[bmeier]

ya it seems that way. i bought in a 5 cents.

if it goes nuts i will wish i had bought more if it goes to 0 i will be glad i didnt...

[themack89]

Originally posted by bmeier
if it goes nuts i will wish i had bought more if it goes to 0 i will be glad i didnt...

Hahahaha thats how it always goes

[Rat Fink]

.

[davidI]

Originally posted by sabad66
My guess is just some big players manipulating it and triggering everyone's stops. I'm jealous of the people who had the balls to buy it at 2.5c.

Players = Insiders

Likely a good indicator for you boys. I got stopped out of BIM before it was purchased for a 1600% premium. Lesson learned!

[oogaboogie]

Originally posted by Rat Fink


Sold way too early at around $2.50/share when it was teetering around that price range.

Today it hit $4.75 :nut:

Oh well, I still had a good run from ~0.75/share average

I'm still holding on to my V.ZEN but there's also other companies in the area which may bear fruit like V.CVN

[TomcoPDR]

Fuck. Should had took rage2 advice FB @ $18-20 hold for 1 year

[mac_82]

CCL up another 25% today. :D

Just out of curiousity, I'm trading in my "fun money" account, outside of my TFSA and RRSP. Basically swinging for the fences and trying to hit some home runs.

Just curious as to what other people do when you hit on something that has tripled/quadrupled. Do you:

a) sell all and laugh away to the bank

b) sell 1/2, and hope the other 1/2 goes up x7-x10

c) sell to get your initial investment back, and hold the rest

[oogaboogie]

Originally posted by mac_82
CCL up another 25% today. :D

Just out of curiousity, I'm trading in my &quot;fun money&quot; account, outside of my TFSA and RRSP. Basically swinging for the fences and trying to hit some home runs.

Just curious as to what other people do when you hit on something that has tripled/quadrupled. Do you:

a) sell all and laugh away to the bank

b) sell 1/2, and hope the other 1/2 goes up x7-x10

c) sell to get your initial investment back, and hold the rest

For me it depends on the company, what they do, whos running it, what the charts look like (support, short/medium/long term indicators, etc) and how the whole world is doing.

There's a lot of research you might have to do but once you do it for all the companies you have, at least you know how long you should hold that stock for and what kind of ROI you are comfortable with.

In the end, remember:

"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered is an old Wall Street saying that counsels against excessive greed and impatience."

[Rat Fink]

.

[oogaboogie]

Anyone following V.ZMS ($0.57)? I bought in @ $0.49 and most people are expecting to triple up in about 30 days.

Do your research but things look promising!

[Manhattan]

Russians effed up my potash :banghead:

[Meback]

Boy, am I glad I didn't buy potash corp a few days ago, was thinking of buying 1000 shares at 37.00. Not even sure if I wanna day trade it with prices like this. If theres another 2-3 percent sell off, I think I may start a small position in it.

[ZenOps]

I'd like Potash... If I had any idea what its actually worth.

Back in 2004, it was $120 per ton. Then it peaked out at $870 per ton in 2008. Now its back down to $350.

Its becoming increasingly difficult to peg any commodity to the dollar anymore. How does anyone guage what a dollar can buy on something as basic as fertilizer?

Pound for pound, it seems that Potash is about 3.5x to 10x more valuable than Iron, which is what I'm using as a baseline.

[fayzed]

fwiw i bought some T.POT yesterday for $30, i know it closed at 29.80 today but i'm hopeful it'll jump, I definitely feel it's oversold.

[AudiPWR]

Stoked on Canacol(CNE.TO) I have a good feeling this stock is going to hit $5 by september.

[PeterGTiR]

How do we feel about GRPN? I was thinking that Tuesday or Wednesday might be a good day to buy and hold for a few days.

[Meback]

Purchased 500 shares of POT. TO @ 29.80. Might just hang on to it and collect the dividends.

[Meback]

Sold my pot @31.34. Executed a perfect short time trade today. Need more of these to off set other losses. lol

[themack89]

Originally posted by Meback
Purchased 500 shares of POT. TO @ 29.80. Might just hang on to it and collect the dividends.

30 Hours later...


Originally posted by Meback
Sold my pot @31.34. Executed a perfect short time trade today.

:rofl:

Good trade anyways haha

[Meback]

lol, buy in again when it drops. I m indecisive like that. :poosie:

[AudiPWR]

Anyone playing GTE? I've heard a few rumors lately...

[-relk-]

Originally posted by AudiPWR
Anyone playing GTE? I've heard a few rumors lately...
Those rumours being...

[Feruk]

Whose still chasing NVS? Nice rally yesterday. Been day trading this one for a bit now but the last few days have been great on this volume.

[msommers]

Anyone heard much about CLQ.TO? A lot of analysts seem to like this one.

[Perceptionist]

Anyone else still in NFK or DXE and waiting on the test results from the first well? Just curious what expectations are if they hit and what if any stop losses people are putting on with the upcoming news release.

[roopi]

Originally posted by Feruk
Whose still chasing NVS? Nice rally yesterday. Been day trading this one for a bit now but the last few days have been great on this volume.

I'm still in. I've got a decent holding and then trade a bit here and there. There seems to be a lot of volume over the past week. Hopefully a good sign. I was hoping for a sale by now but I have no problem holding on without a sale. The company seems to be going in the right direction.

[realazy]

Originally posted by Perceptionist
Anyone else still in NFK or DXE and waiting on the test results from the first well? Just curious what expectations are if they hit and what if any stop losses people are putting on with the upcoming news release.

I'm in just for fun, I'm only in for 10,000 shares, so it's not much money. Even if it tanks, I'm only out a few hundred bucks.

I have been thinking about buying more though........ anyone else?

[quick_scar]

UBNT is up 27% today... My biggest score since I started trading a couple months ago.

[themack89]

Originally posted by quick_scar
UBNT is up 27% today... My biggest score since I started trading a couple months ago.

Damn. How did you know about UBNT? I wanted to buy so bad back 2012 but I was broke. :(

Fucking love the story of this company, ex-Apple wireless engineer breaks off to start UBNT and it becomes the only computer hardware company to be more profitable than Apple itself.