Official Short-term Investments Thread

[ercchry]

wish i held onto my BB contracts now... and my apple ones... and my ford ones :rofl:

[icky2unk]

And... oil just crashed

[GT.....O?]

75% of my portfolio is cash right now, going to be doing lots of buying in the next couple days..

[BavarianBeast]

:banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[GT.....O?]

Bavarian, did you end up selling your SLTD at the top?

[killramos]

Ridiculous. Nothing is based on even a modicum of reality.

Seems like now is just a poor time for trading. Holds and moving cash into other ventures is probably where to go right now. This really is a rabbit hole.

[ercchry]

i've still been doing okay on the small upswings that follow the bad days... timing is everything, but yeah way better luck in other sectors... dollarama q3 earnings soon!

[max_boost]

hod/hou anyone? Z_fan where you at? like old times buddy. :eek: :rofl: :cry:

[ercchry]

well that wasnt as bad of a day as i thought... portfolio, although heavy on oil was only down 1.5% on what i have invested... which is only about 50% of my money :dunno:

[woodywoodford]

bought back into PPY and RRX...we'll see how that feels tomorrow.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by GT.....O?
Bavarian, did you end up selling your SLTD at the top?

Still holding. I likely won't sell until 2016 or so. I strongly believe the company is going to have some huge growth.

[littledan]

I like how CIBC sent me an email with their proprietary software showing that TSX:BTE was bearish with a target price of 26-27 bucks whereas google finance article states that it is much oversold... I guess flip a coin? haha. I'm gonna hold my position for the dividend and just go long on it.

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by littledan
I like how CIBC sent me an email with their proprietary software showing that TSX:BTE was bearish with a target price of 26-27 bucks whereas google finance article states that it is much oversold... I guess flip a coin? haha. I'm gonna hold my position for the dividend and just go long on it.

I wouldn't get rid of BTE either. Next year will tell the story but at these prices im okay holding.

[themack89]

GOt out of my short Jun/Dec CL spread. Small profit just enough to pay for my options that I will hold until expiry.

Opened up a long Feb/Apr spread in Live Cattle. Supposed to be seasonal upward trend for this spread.

[ercchry]

i really should hold things longer... had 10 nov. 22nd call @ $27 for $0.90 for BAD.... got out at $1.40... its at almost $4 now :cry:

[themack89]

Originally posted by ercchry
i really should hold things longer... had 10 nov. 22nd call @ $27 for $0.90 for BAD.... got out at $1.40... its at almost $4 now :cry:

Shouldn't think like that, in hindsight anybody is a good trader.

One of the smartest things you can do is take a profit and let your greed subside.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89


Shouldn't think like that, in hindsight anybody is a good trader.

One of the smartest things you can do is take a profit and let your greed subside.

yeah thats been my new philosophy... its working.. BUT i have gotten out early on every single contract that i bought in the last month and they all have doubled or tripled :rofl:

[max_boost]

Anyone????

[ercchry]

well... first time holding anything while it splits, should hopefully go well. only thing i dont get though is how this can take up to a week in this day and age... you'd think it should be as simple as pressing a button on a computer somewhere :dunno:


Effective Tuesday, November 18, 2014, shares of Dollarama [DOL.TO] will undergo a 2 for 1 stock split through a share dividend. All open orders for DOL.TO will be cancelled. We recommend you review your orders after 9 a.m. ET Tuesday morning, and place any new orders as necessary. Your account will be updated to reflect the split, and you will see the new shares in your account within 5-7 business days. If you would like to sell your shares before this time, please contact our trade desk

[icky2unk]

So what is everyone doing up until Opec on the 27th.

I don't really foresee a cut so anyone doing anything to cover.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[e36bmw///]

nb

[themack89]

Originally posted by e36bmw///


So you do calendar spreads using futures?

Yes. You get way more bang for your buck using Futures spreads rather than penny stocks or regular stocks. Prices tend to be more stable as well.

You can basically look at them like penny stocks that have lots of liquidity and will consistently move 10-50% per day.

For example: here is the chart for Jan/Feb calendar spread 6 month daily bars. It looks volatile when the chart begins, because the contracts are new and ultra low liquidity. As they become more relevant, the prices stabilize really nicely. Take note of the price scale on the right hand side and you get a feel for the percentage movements.

http://i.imgur.com/5nSCIhB.png

[max_boost]

No one else read this? Probably fake? lol

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/how-a-trader-turned-1600-into-17-million-in-six-months/article21592425/

[ercchry]

Originally posted by max_boost
No one else read this? Probably fake? lol

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/how-a-trader-turned-1600-into-17-million-in-six-months/article21592425/

trading leverage gold futures day in and day out? yeah i could see it

[themack89]

Originally posted by ercchry


trading leverage gold futures day in and day out? yeah i could see it

He's swing trading

For the one success you hear about though, there are sooo many failures its ridiculous. When enough people try, eventually one will just hit home run after home run and make it seem easy.

Good for him though, its always impressive to see that and at least know its possible.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89


He's swing trading

For the one success you hear about though, there are sooo many failures its ridiculous. When enough people try, eventually one will just hit home run after home run and make it seem easy.

Good for him though, its always impressive to see that and at least know its possible.

yeah i gave up on it a long time ago... i did however try it one last time when oil hit 80... even at only 25x leverage i kicked myself for that one :rofl:

[max_boost]

sugarphreak who can forecast swings should do it.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


I've been begged by lots of my friends to trade full time for them


Doing some rough calculations, if I took no vacation time and worked continuously it would take my 3 years, 26 weeks to turn 1600$ into 1.70M

then start with $100k and it could be worth while :poosie:

mean while in real life... my 16 DOL contracts are now at $1.125 and today the stock is up $0.70 and they are worth $1.70... do i wait it out till their Q3 earnings announcement on the 4th, or do i cut and run?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


I’ve been on a pretty good role a few times… I turned 15K into 85K over a 30 month period, but my wife didn’t like that I was risking so much all the time. These days my operating rule is that I start with 20K, turn it into 50K over a two or three years by trading casually here and there, then pull out the extra to put in to a more stable investment and start all over with ~20K. Not very fun, but it limits my risk and provides good returns.

That said, I’ve been dragging my feet on trading lately… but I plan to make it up whenever the market tanks either this year or next.

just have to justify it as a percentage of net worth, how much was $15k as a percentage vs $100k today? ;)

[max_boost]

:rofl: then you can go back and update the millionaire thread.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[max_boost]

sugar you gotta show us some of these trades you are making and tip us off. your friends must be so jelly of u.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


^^ I keep telling you guys, and nobody ever pays attention, haha

I do one of two things; either I aim for a quick 4% gain using statistical indicators to identify break outs, or I buy into a stock that drops between 6% to 10% in a single day, and catch the rebound.


Admittedly I probably can't turn 1600$ into 1.7M :rofl: I was mostly just making light of the fact that even under the most idea of circumstances it would take a lot more than 6 months.

depends on what you are trading though... if you are actually good at catching the 6-10% one day'ers then instead of trading the stock... trade the option :bigpimp:

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
True enough

I usually just grab the stock before closing, then sell it the next morning before lunch... I've made ridiculous amount of cash doing that.

Recently I missed out on the SNC stock doing that on Nov 6th, kind of kicking myself because I just got too busy to grab some.

yeah i grabbed dgc for a 20% day... was damn close to grabbing the option instead... which would of been a... 300% day? :rofl:

[littledan]

what the heck is going on with BCE? how long till this upswing slows down??

[ercchry]

so has anyone gone through a stock split with questrade?

original order: DOL.TO 105 17JAN15 Call BTO 8 2.25 $1800

i woke up today to this:

DOL.TO 105 17JAN15 Call STC 8 1.00 $800
DOL.TO 52.5 17JAN15 Call BTO 16 $1.55 $2480

so i opened a chat with them (extremely painful btw) and was like, hey! that should be $1.125 per contract not $1.55... so they change it. but for the the life of me i cant figure out how to track a running total for transactions since my account balance moves around and i dont remember down to the dollar how much free cash i had yesterday... so am i square now or am i still out $1k?

EDIT: look at the graph for today's trading on DOL too.. i dont know what to make of this... so flat :rofl:

EDIT2: called a real life person, apparently thats all internal and not actually coming out of my account... so weird, nothing shows differently with it vs a regular execution

[themack89]

Traded in and out of a few CL calendars again.. A quick 4.5% on portfolio, 200% on trade.. I'll take it!

Still riding my cattle trade... its bouncing around where I bought in.

Still holding options offside (paid for), definitely just an expiry play now.

[GotRice?]

:clap: :clap: Got rid of my BBY and WMT call options today!
For a total gain of 55%
Dec 20 $35 = BBY +25%
Dec 20 $82.50 = WMT +85%

[riander5]

Originally posted by GotRice?
:clap: :clap: Got rid of my BBY and WMT call options today!
For a total gain of 55%
Dec 20 $35 = BBY +25%
Dec 20 $82.50 = WMT +85%

Explain to an options newb?

[ercchry]

Originally posted by riander5


Explain to an options newb?

he had calls at those prices he listed, purchased them for the percentage less than what they are at now and sold them at current amount for gains.

basically 1 contract is 100 shares and you pay the going rate for the contracts, not the share price. the going rate for the contract depends on a few variables, like the time till expiry and if the contracts are "covered" which means the current share price is greater than the contracts... think of it as leveraged short term stock trading

[GotRice?]

Originally posted by riander5


Explain to an options newb?

http://www.learn-stock-options-trading.com/

[riander5]

Originally posted by ercchry


he had calls at those prices he listed, purchased them for the percentage less than what they are at now and sold them at current amount for gains.

basically 1 contract is 100 shares and you pay the going rate for the contracts, not the share price. the going rate for the contract depends on a few variables, like the time till expiry and if the contracts are "covered" which means the current share price is greater than the contracts... think of it as leveraged short term stock trading

Thanks, i understand what options are just didnt understand exactly what he posted. Then he responded like a clown

[GotRice?]

Originally posted by riander5


Thanks, i understand what options are just didnt understand exactly what he posted. Then he responded like a clown

huh? :dunno: ercchry understood it fine. Clearly we didn't understand/misunderstood what you posted. I think you need to read that website.

[ercchry]

yeah the contract price and quantity was left out... but all that really matters is the percentage you made at the end of the day

[themack89]

Originally posted by ercchry
all that really matters is the percentage you made at the end of the day

You're joking right?

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89


You're joking right?

well... percentage over time of trade... but closing out trades for a profit is the entire point of trading, isnt it?

[GotRice?]

BBY.TO 35 20DEC14 Call 15 1.95 $2400
WMT.TO 82.50 20DEC14 Call 10 $1.71 $3150

I guess that makes sense. I I purchased these 1-2 weeks ago.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by GotRice?
BBY.TO 35 20DEC14 Call 15 1.95 $2400
WMT.TO 82.50 20DEC14 Call 10 $1.71 $3150

I guess that makes sense. I I purchased these 1-2 weeks ago.

so just for the hell of it, 55% on $5500 over 2 weeks... if you kept it up for a whole year(reinvesting your gains), that just shy of $500k, or an annual ROI of 9000% :rofl:

seems important enough to me :poosie:

[themack89]

Originally posted by ercchry


so just for the hell of it, 55% on $5500 over 2 weeks... if you kept it up for a whole year(reinvesting your gains), that just shy of $500k, or an annual ROI of 9000% :rofl:

seems important enough to me :poosie:

Well you go submit that strategy to a hedgefund.

Lemme know how far you get :)

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89


Well you go submit that strategy to a hedgefund.

Lemme know how far you get :)

haha, obviously it only scales so far

[themack89]

Originally posted by ercchry
all that really matters is the percentage you made at the end of the day


Originally posted by ercchry
haha, obviously it only scales so far

Oh I see. So percentage isn't the only thing that matters at the end of the day. :thumbsup:

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89




Oh I see. So percentage isn't the only thing that matters at the end of the day. :thumbsup:

it still kind of does though, thats how all these products are sold, on a good track record of xx% returns :dunno:

[themack89]

Originally posted by ercchry


it still kind of does though, thats how all these products are sold, on a good track record of xx% returns :dunno:

I'm sorry... what kind of selling are you talking about?

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89


I'm sorry... what kind of selling are you talking about?

ETFs, mutual funds, etc... any traded managed funds

[themack89]

Originally posted by ercchry
ETFs, mutual funds, etc... any traded managed funds

Ah, so you are telling me if you were a prospective investor in one of these mutual funds the only thing you would look at is % return? Or rather, the only thing that "sells"

Like, you wouldn't look at, say... drawdowns? Value at risk? Holdings composition? Sortino and Sharpe ratios?

Bill's Hedge Fund returned 12%
Jane's Hedge Fund returned 10%

You would buy Bill's Hedge Fund.

Bill's Hedge Fund returned 12%, was regularly offside -10% to -20%
Jane's Hedge Fund returned 10%, biggest drawdown was -2%

Still gonna buy Bill's Hedge Fund?

Just an example. :dunno: But then again, I don't know much I didn't go to Haskayne.

[ercchry]

your example is still based off a percentage, negative or positive its still a percentage... but anyways, instead of being a douchebag, why dont you just tell us your one most important factor in investing. im a structural designer at the end of the day not a fucking hedge fund manager. but for me seeing my money grow is pretty important :dunno:

[themack89]

Sorry if I offended you, I was just trying to have a constructive conversation because I didn't understand why you were saying percentage is the only thing that matters. I didn't have to phrase that example in percentage terms.

Again I apologize

I guess for me the most important thing is not seeing my money disappear. I'd care about growth after that.

[max_boost]

lol you might as well have gone to haskayne after that post. :rofl:

[themack89]

Originally posted by max_boost
lol you might as well have gone to haskayne after that post. :rofl:

hahaha. maybe. in my head it was a funny reference to 8baller8

[ercchry]

but seriously, i have a dilemma... sitting at a ~125% yield on DOL... do i sell? or do i keep riding this till earnings time?

[max_boost]

go big or go home ercchry :bigpimp:

[themack89]

Originally posted by max_boost
go big or go homeless ercchry :bigpimp:

Fixed :poosie:

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89


Fixed :poosie:

would be pretty hard to do since its only my TFSA... DOL has started to drop though, down to 100% yield... think i'll wait off a bit at least, they are jan17th contracts anyways

[themack89]

If your trading account isn't funded by a HELOC then you're doing it wrong.

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89
If your trading account isn't funded by a HELOC then you're doing it wrong.

i dont have one... i could have one... but i dont need one either, i guess if i paid off my mortgage i could just open one instead, but i want cash right now so i have more options... like taking a nice long vacation

[sabad66]

Originally posted by themack89

I guess for me the most important thing is not seeing my money disappear. I'd care about growth after that.
How is this any different than being concerned about percentages?

Money not disappearing = a positive percentage increase and not negative
Growth = a higher number (but still positive) percent increase

Yes there are other aspects like how much it swings, but at the end of the day when you are cashing out it's all about ROI. I'm with ercchry on this one percent gains is all that matters at the end of the day.

[themack89]

Originally posted by sabad66

How is this any different than being concerned about percentages?

Thanks for taking that out of context lmao. Maybe you didn't read my other post's or errchry's other posts.

In reference to errchry's comment about scalability, maybe you didn't understand what he meant:

I'll give you 50% return on your investment up to $500

or

I can only offer you 1% on investment of $501 up to $10mil

So you can invest option A and tell people you made 50%, or you can invest in option B and tell people you made a 'measly' 1% @ $10mil.

Another example as to why percentage doesn't matter: Positions with no "cost" value, just maintenance margin requirements.

Say I enter long a spread at $0.01 and it moves to $0.11, a gain of 1000%, or 10 cents. Say I short that same spread at $0.11 and it moves back to $0.01, now technically this is just a gain of 91% but it is still impacting my account by the same absolute dollar value. Exact same spread, exact same risk, exact same profit, but the % difference from "gain from entry" is by order of magnitude.

[BavarianBeast]

Any guesses what OPEC will tell us on Friday?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[BavarianBeast]

Funny you say that, I read this article earlier today..

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-price-predicted-to-fall-to-60-unless-opec-cuts-back-1.2847173

[Sugarphreak]

...

[BavarianBeast]

Haha. I liked this comment:

What Canadians are mostly unaware of is the fact that our energy prices are subsidized prices.

IE When we pay $50 at the gas pump, the gas we got is actually worth more than $50. Why?
Because the government financially subsidizes the energy we use.
Even though: this practice has been taking place for years, most people don’t realize the energy prices we consumers pay are below market levels.

At first I thought: This is great! The government is paying for part of my gas!

But when you trace it backward?
Where does the government get their money to subsidize your gas?
Government revenues.
Where does the government get their revenues?
Mostly our tax dollars

[themack89]

Everybody is predicting that oil prices will drop. And as we know from historical track records, the masses are excellent at predicting prices more than 12 seconds into the future. :burnout:

[icky2unk]

What's the best way to hedge oil crashing. Is there a bear oil futures I can buy, never really look into this but don't want to sell everything but woudn't mind a little hedge.

[BavarianBeast]

Take up a short position in any of the big oil producing companies.

[ercchry]

or grab some option puts for whatever you already own

[max_boost]

Originally posted by icky2unk
What's the best way to hedge oil crashing. Is there a bear oil futures I can buy, never really look into this but don't want to sell everything but woudn't mind a little hedge. HOD 2x leverage oil down haha +50% in the last 6 weeks haha

HED 2x leverage TSX Energy index down. haha

Just have apple go up $1/day and I will be very happy lol all apples in one basket :rofl:

[themack89]

I'd go with errchry on this one. Puts are the simplest way.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[Type_S1]

Cashed out all energy yesterday for gains. Market should get hit pretty hard this week and rebuy Monday or Tuesday morning.

As for $60 oil, I don't forsee it happening. Should level off at the $70 at the least.

[themack89]

That's two different predictions sugarphreak.

Which one are you going to pick?

[Sugarphreak]

...

[themack89]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Nope, they are one in the same ;)

I am going to keep my eye on Suncor, Enbridge and Cenovus stocks on Thursday... they should start to sink a bit this week

??? What

You said "OPEC Increase production and export to US"

in second one you said "OPEC Cut production 500k"

[ercchry]

Originally posted by themack89


??? What

You said "OPEC Increase production and export to US"

in second one you said "OPEC Cut production 500k"

probably watched the news last night or something :rofl:

[themack89]

I'll make a prediction just so I can be wrong about something:

No decision. Talks extended. :burnout:

[Sugarphreak]

...

[themack89]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


They are calling for OPEC to cut production by 1 to 1.5M... there is speculation they may cut by 500K to show they are complying as a measure of good faith and so it doesn't look like they are intentionally trying to hurt the economy... it doesn't matter if they increase production or cut by 500K or less, same intent, same result

Fantastic. But the original question was "Any guesses what OPEC will tell us Friday?" from Bavarian Beast ... To which you had two different responses. He wasn't asking price action, or intent, or result. Just saying. :D

[Sugarphreak]

...

[themack89]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


So no matter what happens I will be right.... ;)

The classic "Heads I win Tails you lose" :)

[Sugarphreak]

...

[themack89]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak

Not entirely

If they cut by 500K or increase, the exact same market response will occur... this is my prediction ( local producer stocks will spike for one day... then decline steadily after)

If they cut by 1M or more, a different market reaction will occur (oddly, local producer stocks will tumble for one day... then climb steadily after)... I don't expect to see this


Originally posted by themack89
Fantastic. But the original question was "Any guesses what OPEC will tell us Friday?" from BavarianBeast ... To which you had two different responses. He wasn't asking price action, or intent, or result. Just saying. :D

[LUCKYSTRIKE]

*grabs popcorn*

[CompletelyNumb]

I predict OPEC will have no solid response by friday. I also predict some other celebrity scandal to cover it up.

I also predict that sugarphreak will be right in the long run. Production will likely be cut a little. Or increase a little. Or stay the same.

[troyl]

I think OPEC makes no change... Will be interesting to see the volatility in trading on Friday, with US Thanksgiving Thursday and early close on Friday. Liquidity should be pretty thin, easier to move markets.

Maybe enter a long straddle on CL or a producer?

[icky2unk]

RRX at 7.. I just can't resist at that price to average down on stuff I bought earlier in the year.