Official Short-term Investments Thread

[Sugarphreak]

....

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Well crap... I think I just lost my job due to cuts announced today :( Ah no sweat. You have a rainy day fund that will scare most people anyway. Plus now you have more time to post here and ya probably make more money on the market than your day job anyway. Win Win Win!:thumbsup:

[killramos]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Well crap... I think I just lost my job due to cuts announced today :(

Rough :thumbsdow

[Sugarphreak]

...

[killramos]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Yeah that is what Beyond needs... me doubling my post count :rofl:

Someone needs to put me in my place. Lok at what 55 dollar oil has done to me!

:banghead:

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Well crap... I think I just lost my job due to cuts announced today :(

good thing you only went with a FiST, and if the bread winner still has her job you'll be just fine... till taxes are due ;)

[Sugarphreak]

...

[max_boost]

Perfect. Do your day trading, take an early afternoon nap and then come do deliveries for me. :thumbsup: :burnout:

[themack89]

annnd this is why you don't trade size too big for your portfolio :rofl:

http://i.imgur.com/Uy1KJ5s.png

[Env-Consultant]

Dumping entire RRSP into O/G - have TFSA maxed completely in O/G stocks (heavy PWT and RRX - recent buys, no notable losses).

I'd rather lose it all than miss out on this. Honestly, I could live with myself if I went for it and lost it all..... but a year or two from now, if things go how I expect them to, I don't want to be sitting here going "oh man..I should've bought....". Did that in after 08, but I was in uni until 2010, so no coin at that time.

[kaput]

.

[Env-Consultant]

Originally posted by kaput
So one big day on the market and you are calling this the bottom?

I didn't say anything about the bottom. I bought PWT a bit early, but nothing major/disgusting - averaged down now; bought RRX at it's bottom (so far) ealier this month. Regardless of where they go over the next few months, I'm looking at 1.5-2 year plays. Might buy soon or wait until after the New Year - this year is atpyical in that a pile of people sold out of fear, opposed to using reason and regular tax loss purposes. Suspect institutional investors will be all over oversold O/G stocks in the first quarter.

On a related note, once the US and Saudi Arabia have punished Iran and Russia enough, oil will jump up again. Don't call me Arash for this.....but I would turn off the CNN/Fox/CBC and do some digging/try to see what's really going on here....

PRrwmrZ0sAQ

[killramos]

Big Insider buying for LRE yesterday:

Andrew, William E. 140,921 Shares @ 1.40

:dunno:

Can't be bad news? Everyone is averaging down.

[Sugarphreak]

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[killramos]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak

Oil is still slipping

Its up again this morning :dunno:

Lots of uncertainty sure but most companies have been fairly proactive hedging into this. With most 2015 hedges being priced above 95 dollars. You have to consider the the actual net-price the companies are seeing. Its not 50 bucks. I don't think there will be much red at Q1 at all actually. And 2014 numbers will be great as well.

By the time Q1 is reported it will be June and things could be back at 100 dollars.

[killramos]

Originally posted by killramos
Big Insider buying for LRE yesterday:

Andrew, William E. 140,921 Shares @ 1.40

:dunno:

Can't be bad news? Everyone is averaging down.

and opened 20% up! :nut:

[riander5]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Well crap... I think I just lost my job due to cuts announced today :(

That sucks - where did you work / what did you do out of curiosity ??

Oh on topic - Got into BNK and SGY yesterday when they were up around ~5%, up nearly 15% in each.. You guys think its a good idea to hold until tomorrow then sell anticipating a drop next week?

[phreezee]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I know we had a huge correction yesterday, but I am not convinced we are at the bottom.


Execs are planning for $38 oil.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[BigMass]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


Well crap... I think I just lost my job due to cuts announced today :(

now you can join the club :p

[ercchry]

well that rally didnt last long. pretty happy that the first thing i did this morning was to dump the rest of my RRX contracts, 60% yield... i'll take it

[icky2unk]

Anyone know much about Northern Blizzard or Cardinal?

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Oil is still slipping, and when O&G starts putting out their quarterly reports I suspect the red is going to be even worse than expected

We're 2 months away from Q4 and FY 2014. Anyone still hedged will see little impact. I'd expect that future quarters are already priced in today based on forward oil strip forecasting.

I bought RRX several weeks ago at $6.25. Not even contemplating selling. You can trade and get lucky, but the daily movement of the stocks has recently made no sense. I'd rather just hold for 6 months and see where we go. Quality companies aren't going anywhere.

[riander5]

Originally posted by Feruk


We're 2 months away from Q4 and FY 2014. Anyone still hedged will see little impact. I'd expect that future quarters are already priced in today based on forward oil strip forecasting.

I bought RRX several weeks ago at $6.25. Not even contemplating selling. You can trade and get lucky, but the daily movement of the stocks has recently made no sense. I'd rather just hold for 6 months and see where we go. Quality companies aren't going anywhere.

RRX is trading insane volumes today :edit: so are most Canadian o&g I suppose

[themack89]

Took a big long on S&P 500 index futures options..

2200/2210 Bull Call Spread. Come onnnn baby! Risk-on is no longer risk-on! :D

[cidley69]

Anyone looking at betting big on HOU?

[themack89]

Originally posted by cidley69
Anyone looking at betting big on HOU?

Stay away from that

[ercchry]

blackberry earnings tomorrow... should be an interesting day with how volatile this stock is

[riander5]

Originally posted by themack89


Stay away from that

Everyone ragged on me for suggesting those :(

I would have been up 7% on HOD at one point today! haha

woulda coulda shoulda

[Sugarphreak]

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[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


I think their earnings will be up, but the stock will go down anyway

I plan to enter into a position for BB next week

as long as it bounces over $12 in the next couple weeks, im happy

[themack89]

Originally posted by riander5


Everyone ragged on me for suggesting those :(

I would have been up 7% on HOD at one point today! haha

woulda coulda shoulda

It's a loser in the long run... Intrinsic costs of roll over from month to month. And why thats bad is because you're always going to be fighting it.

[riander5]

Originally posted by themack89


It's a loser in the long run... Intrinsic costs of roll over from month to month. And why thats bad is because you're always going to be fighting it.

Agreed long term bad pick - like from 2009-pre 2014 collapse. But in a period of a fast oil price decline followed by a (predicted) sharp rise do you not think its a decent play?

[Feruk]

Your bet on sharp rise is incorrect IMO. If you look at what the oil sector is telling you through budget cuts, they see next year as being rough. HOU is NOT easy money. If you wanna make money in O&G IMO but some good companies that not only weather the storm but have forecast growth in 2015 at $60 oil, and you'll be way ahead in 1-2 years.

[riander5]

Originally posted by Feruk
Your bet on sharp rise is incorrect IMO. If you look at what the oil sector is telling you through budget cuts, they see next year as being rough. HOU is NOT easy money. If you wanna make money in O&G IMO but some good companies that not only weather the storm but have forecast growth in 2015 at $60 oil, and you'll be way ahead in 1-2 years.
RRX.. SGY.... BNK? BTE?
What about some service companies that have been hammered lately too.... cal frac and trican specifically...

Guess ill have to check netbacks of the above mentioned companies and see which ones have the best chance once companies contracts for 80-100$ oil end next year.

[Feruk]

Stay far away from service companies. They will get hit hard by not just the reductions in activities, but by having to reduce their prices on the work they do get.

I think RRX is cream of the crop, but it's not the only one. RMP is another one to look at. Stay far far from BTE IMO. Anyone who cannot grow at $60 oil or has a very high debt/CF is not worth looking at as anything but a gamble.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by Feruk
Stay far away from service companies. They will get hit hard by not just the reductions in activities, but by having to reduce their prices on the work they do get.

I think RRX is cream of the crop, but it's not the only one. RMP is another one to look at. Stay far far from BTE IMO. Anyone who cannot grow at $60 oil or has a very high debt/CF is not worth looking at as anything but a gamble.

I bought a service company the other day.

Enterprise Group - E.TO for $0.35 last week and sitting at $0.40 currently.

I don't think they are going to get hit any harder than they have been, but that's just my crystal ball at work.

[ercchry]

taking a page from sugarphreak's book i grabbed some Worthington Industries today after they slid 11% on "mixed earnings" ...we'll see how this goes i guess. hoping that its an exaggerated drop like everything seems to be these days

[Sugarphreak]

...

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
So everybody is being asked to pack a "personal box" today, I have a feeling this is going to mess with my online trading tomorrow.



I typically use caution with drops over about 8%, they do often rebound, but I find sometimes they are still on the way down.

My favorite type of stock to bounce is one that goes 5~8% down

yeah i read the report first and figured it was a little ridiculous, sales beat expectations but earnings per share were slightly off. less than 4% of portfolio in it, so im not too worried... plus its not O&G for once :rofl:

i also pulled the trigger after it stopped sliding, then it was basically flat all day

[themack89]

Added another post on the blog guys.

Take a look if you're bored

http://naturalfinancial.com/2014/12/18/zw-wheat-explodes/

[Feruk]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
I don't think they are going to get hit any harder than they have been, but that's just my crystal ball at work.
I have no doubt less activity is priced in, but I'm not sure how well you can price in lack of pricing power go forward. I plan to look at these guys more carefully when oil company stocks rebound, but who knows. Good luck.

[Env-Consultant]

Aside from the long term plays I've mentioned, I have a few other fun/TFSA ones on the go.

Petro-Victory (cve: vry) - about to release further results (possibly tonight - stated ~10 days from Dec 10) - if highly positive, I'm expecting a nice jump, sell, early Christmas present.

AlvoPetro (cve: alv) - discovery announced 3 days ago - missed out on major gains, but planning on holding this one long term. Management has a proven track record and I've heard nothing but good things.

[Env-Consultant]

Big support for PWT this morning - about to be trading at $2.90 off the hop - up from $2.61. Rally time yet?

[killramos]

Originally posted by Env-Consultant
Big support for PWT this morning - about the be trading at $2.90 off the hop - up from $2.61. Rally time yet?

I wouldn't want to be holding them if they get kicked off the index, which isn't unlikely at this point...

[Env-Consultant]

Originally posted by killramos


I wouldn't want to be holding them if they get kicked off the index, which isn't unlikely at this point...

So you're saying I should buy more? :rofl:

I'm averaged down to less than $3, so at this point, I'm rolling with it and riding it out.

[killramos]

Originally posted by Env-Consultant


So you're saying I should buy more? :rofl:



Not sure by what stretch you could interpret my statement that way but sure...

[Sugarphreak]

....

[killramos]

Originally posted by Env-Consultant
Big support for PWT this morning - about to be trading at $2.90 off the hop - up from $2.61. Rally time yet?

:rofl:

[Env-Consultant]

1.4M bid/ask of 2.9 yanked at the last second.

Oh well, time to buy more.

[BavarianBeast]

CNE baby!

Mackie raised target to 10.25.. Fingers crossed, I now have almost double the shares I did when it was at $8.50 6 months ago.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[themack89]

Originally posted by Env-Consultant
1.4M bid/ask of 2.9 yanked at the last second.

Oh well, time to buy more.

It's called spoofing

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Holy crap I am making a lot of money on BB this morning... took a huge risk and bought in heavy as soon as the market opened :rofl:

i averaged down too late :(

[riander5]

Originally posted by ercchry


i averaged down too late :(

How long you holding Worthington for?

[ercchry]

Originally posted by riander5


How long you holding Worthington for?

till it does something... or march 20th :rofl:

[ercchry]

holy crap, bb is about to break even on the day

[Sugarphreak]

..

[ercchry]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak


I sold.... man what a great day! I put every penny I had into it this morning, totally paid off!

Except for the fact I just got serviced a termination notice along with all of my coworkers, that part kind of sucks

well at least you covered a month or two of salary :rofl:

my damn options are not recovering very well though. they closed at $0.85 yesterday, but only back up to ~$0.50 right now

[Sugarphreak]

...

[BavarianBeast]

CNE - Making it rain today!

[themack89]

Nice to see someone trading something other than O&G haha. Nice trade Sugarphreak.

[quick_scar]

I don't know how you guys do it. I have taken a shit kicking in pretty much everything I invested in this year. Has not been good.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by quick_scar
I don't know how you guys do it. I have taken a shit kicking in pretty much everything I invested in this year. Has not been good.

Balls made of diamonds man. I would of been absolutely fucked still if I didn't spend pretty much every spare dime I had averaging everything down when it was taking a shit kicking. I was down over 60% on my portfolio 2 weeks ago and here I am sitting at a nice 10% gain overall on it. I'd still be down a good 40-50% if I hadn't made the choice to go all or nothing.

[kaput]

.

[asp integra]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
CNE - Making it rain today!

I was going to buy earlier this week when it was at 1.68 but never pulled the trigger :banghead: :banghead: :banghead: :banghead:

[icky2unk]

Originally posted by kaput


This sounds more like gambling than investing to me. I say this constructively - perhaps you should take a step back and reconsider what you are doing. My opinion only of course.

Pretty quick to assume it's gambling. Isn't investing the same thing as gambling. By the same definition all the insiders of any O&G Company would have been gambling when they were averaging down in Sept/Oct.

Nothing wrong with averaging down if you have reasoning behind it. Also, it doesn't sound like he took out debt to do it either so i'd say he is probably doing okay and probably just has more risk tolerance than other individuals.

[themack89]

Originally posted by icky2unk


Pretty quick to assume it's gambling. Isn't investing the same thing as gambling. By the same definition all the insiders of any O&G Company would have been gambling when they were averaging down in Sept/Oct.

Nothing wrong with averaging down if you have reasoning behind it. Also, it doesn't sound like he took out debt to do it either so i'd say he is probably doing okay and probably just has more risk tolerance than other individuals.

You're saying gambling for one man can be investing for the other? I think this has truth to it.

Investor's and Gamblers essentially do the same thing... they assume risk in an environment of uncertainty in hopes of financial gain. It's the ethics behind the risk assumption, I think, which separates investor's and gamblers. I.e. The essence of gambling is viewed as "bad" and the essence of investing is viewed as "good." ... Which can change when viewed in the context of the personal situation of the gambler and/or investor.

i.e. John is a millionaire, he occasionally 'invests' $1000 on the roulette table. Versus... Bill is near homeless with a family; he is planning on 'investing' $1000 on the roulette table instead of feeding his children.

Pretty much it's like pornography vs nudity. You know it when you see it.

[BavarianBeast]

I think it would of been a gamble if I was hedging on it to pop as much as it did before Christmas to sell so I could buy food and gifts for the family. I wasn't, it was just a nice surprise.

I was *investing* in hopes that 2-48 months from now the share price is higher, which through my research and findings, it very well should be.

[themack89]

Hi guys.

Just throwing it out there I made another post on my blog for anyone who is interested in commodities trading. It's relatively non-technical stuff.

http://naturalfinancial.com

[e36bmw///]

nm

[themack89]

The volume will be on the quarterly contracts... March June sept dec. that's also how I choose strikes now for options trades. Always look where the volume and open interest is.

[e36bmw///]

nm

[themack89]

Originally posted by e36bmw///
Looks like Interactive Brokers now has TFSA and RRSP accounts! Woo

OMFG. You just made my year. In the last several hours. :clap:

Couldn't find the eligible securities to trade, soooo I opened a chat room:
Marisa G: I work in our US office and at this time there are no available representatives in our Canadian office.
Marisa G: You are NOT able to trade the following products in a TFSA account:
Marisa G: Leveraged FX (LEVFX).
Futures.
Future options.
Long put equity options that are not fully covered with position on a qualified underlying stock.

Something doesn't sound right about not being able to buy puts without owning the stock to cover them though. Anyone else experience this with differen't TFSAs?

[ExtraSlow]

Not sure if this is a "long" or "short" term question, but this thread seems to have more activity, so I'll dump it here.

As we know, energy has been hammered for several months. If anyone has been following that 2014 stock thread, you'll know I lost a pile.
The good news is that I have a couple investments that have not gone down much.

So, seems to me, it's time to double-down on something that's been hit hard.

what do people have that has seen big losses, and is in a halfway decent position to weather the storm and possibly post some gains?

I'm most familiar with Energy stocks, but I'm open to suggestions in any sectors. Not looking to day-trade this, but I'm comfortable shortening up my time horizon is required.

[ExtraSlow]

I guess I'll start. I do like Bankers (BNK). They are producing oil in Albania, which to me seems slightly more stable than some other options, although Greece is right next door .. .
Down 57% in the last 6 months.

[riander5]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
I guess I'll start. I do like Bankers (BNK). They are producing oil in Albania, which to me seems slightly more stable than some other options, although Greece is right next door .. .
Down 57% in the last 6 months.

I bought into them.. well... 10% ago haha. Was even till the drop today. Confident they will power through once oil comes back as they have great netbacks (and increased over 2013 as well)

Also they are good at continually growing production.

Todays 10% drop sucks though, oh well im at least a 1-2 years for this puppy

[Feruk]

I would be buying nothing at all in O&G right now. Looks like oil price might go through $50 this week. If that happens, you can buy whatever you want cheaper at that point.

Only thing I've bought is RRX at $6.25, so I'm still up on that. If I was to add another name, it'd likely be RMP. But I think it's way too early to be adding another name.

[themack89]

My advice is to learn different ways to trade, and look at different markets to trade. When you look at buy/long only, you are literally missing out on at least half of the opportunities out there.

[riander5]

Originally posted by themack89
My advice is to learn different ways to trade, and look at different markets to trade. When you look at buy/long only, you are literally missing out on at least half of the opportunities out there.

So you are advising finding targets to short?? I'd rather eat a bit of losses right now in o&g under the assumption they will go up in two years than gamble with the last ~5$ oil has to go down.

If I had more time to research and do it though it would be nice. Or just get back into HOD... hehehe

[themack89]

Originally posted by riander5
So you are advising finding targets to short?? I'd rather eat a bit of losses right now in o&g under the assumption they will go up in two years than gamble with the last ~5$ oil has to go down.

That's not what I said, I said what I said. You can take from it what you want.

[TomcoPDR]

Anyone making trades today?

[themack89]

Originally posted by TomcoPDR
Anyone making trades today?

Opened up a Corn spread and reversed an S&P spread, biased towards down side now.

[themack89]

I'd expect this thread to be bustling with activity today :rofl:

Anyways guys, I made another post on the blog:

http://naturalfinancial.com

Just a snippet from the latest:


Oil Breaks Into $48 Range
January 6, 2015/Positions Trades /No Comments
It looks like the markets decided to kick off 2015 by continuing the sell-off of Oil, forcing it to break into sub $50 trading levels (as I write this, February oil is $49.22).

It appears I was a little premature on closing my short on CL Crude Oil via bear put spread 51/50, but I’m not a big fan of ‘shoulda, woulda, coulda.’ After going back and re-considering how I managed that trade, I still came to the same conclusion that I made the right decision. I am aggressively trying to keep (what I perceive to be) dead trades out of the portfolio, and the CL short fit that criteria at the time.

A general overview of what has been happening for my positions has been a flatline of PnL for the last several weeks. The CL Crude Oil calendar -Jun/+Dec has been the main driver for my upside along with BBRY Blackberry a little bit, while all other positions have kind of been bogging down the book. Need some volatility pretty soon!!! In the right direction, of course.

[TomcoPDR]

Originally posted by themack89
I'd expect this thread to be bustling with activity today :rofl:

Anyways guys, I made another post on the blog:

http://naturalfinancial.com

Just a snippet from the latest:




Back to xmas week sell off level :cry:

[icky2unk]

I'm just sitting and watching.

Have capital gains still in TOU so just letting it ride...
TBE no point in selling at 77 cents lol, will increase position if it goes to the 60s
RRX averaged at about 8.25, will increase position if it touches 5.5s
AD up about 25%, may increase position a bit today as it's 0% oil related and got swatted close to 10% today.
WCP i'm pretty flat on so will just ride it out and may increase position if it touches 9.5s
CJ i'm watching pretty closely right now. May initiate a position in the lower 10s
Also looking to reenter my pipelines of which I sold close to their highs.. ALA in the 38-39 range hoping to get in, IPL in the 30-31, VSN in the 15-15.75 range. Would have liked to have gotten back in KEY but blacked out right now.
Also seeing if CPG touches back down to the lower 20s and i'll probably get back in there and I'll touch back into BTE if it hits lower teens (12-13).

Have about 30% of my capital in HOD as I wait things out for the dust to settle with oil. It's just all speculators driving the price down and Saudi doing the same thing it has done for the past 3 months.

[ExtraSlow]

Getting out of a couple of my better performing energy stocks, and looking to move that money into something more volatile.

May not buy today, but am selling right now. Look to buy possibly tomorrow or Thursday.

[ExtraSlow]

Put in some stink bids on BNK and SGY. If we have another bad morning tomorrow, they'll get filled. I'm pretty comfortable holding those even through a longer downturn.

Keeping some powder dry, waiting on possible further news through the week.

[ercchry]

anyone know why BAD is hitting new 52-week lows today? seems like it could be in anticipation for shitty news once they release their year end numbers? Q3 was decent though... so im not sure?

[BigMass]

Janet is back from vacation today.

[ExtraSlow]

So my stink bids on SGY and BNK didn't trigger last week. SGY has sunken even below my previous bids. I may pick some up, even though I realize that SGY can't really be considered a blue chip stock by any means.

New week, more news, what do the gurus of beyond think this week?

[themack89]

Originally posted by ExtraSlow
New week, more news, what do the gurus of beyond think this week?

I don't think there are any gurus here man, lol.

[CompletelyNumb]

They've certainly all been quiet lately.

[ExtraSlow]

The good news for the fine folks of beyond.ca is that opinionated and informed are nearly impossible to tell apart.

Really, I just like to hear opinions. I feel like I learn lots from people who look at things differently than I do.

[ercchry]

Just got a bunch of info emailed to me from a guru... gonna look through it today and see if i can form it into an uneducated opinion :thumbsup:

[themack89]

Well, why dont you look at trading the widening contango?

With demand for storage rising, traders are looking to turn to book up tankers and use them for storage. When storage starts to become relatively scarce there should be even more downward pressure on the front months pushing contango further out than it already is.

At least I think. Like you said, it's an opinion. Full disclosure I am short June Oil long December Oil @ 4.00, currently 4.37.

*Edit. And then this comment will largely be ignored because it doesn't fall under the umbrella of "Long only a TSX listed O&G stock/ETF" :rofl:

[woodywoodford]

I noticed that at least one guru has subtly extended his "12-18 month time frame" line to "12-18 or more months time"

But I'm starting to have second thoughts that this will blow over in a year or two. It's completely different (supply driven) than anything we've seen since the 80's, where that oil glut held prices down for 6 years. Really it depends entirely on how long Saudi plays hardball, and they can afford to do this for a long time. We might pull back to $60 oil in 12-18 months which will allow for some modest stability with the better companies but even that depends on Saudi's game plan.

A month or two ago many of the research guys were mildly bullish thinking we'll shake this off in a year or even less, but now we're three+ months into it and the sentiment is getting more and more bearish with every research note that I read. So instead I'm stashing cash, waiting for the housing crash to pick up momentum and buy in (just check out these (http://www.creb.com/Buyer_Resources/Housing_Statistics/) stats).

In other words, the only energy I'm buying right now is through my employers matching program.

[BavarianBeast]

Anybody else playing the JP Morgan health conference? I've loaded up my biotech goody bag, ready to ride it out until Thursday/Friday.

[themack89]

Woody, of all guys on this forum you'd be one of the last I'd expect to see pointing fingers at Saudi.

[woodywoodford]

Oh my inner conspiracy theorist is still going nuts and probably isn't too far from the truth, I'm just getting worn down by the way these sentiments are going. Maybe another way of putting it is the day Putin disappears I buy every oil stock I can find :burnout:

The question then is how long can he hold out...