View Full Version : Official Short-term Investments Thread
Sugarphreak
12-07-2015, 12:57 PM
...
roopi
12-07-2015, 01:10 PM
Originally posted by cloud7
Oil will go back up... Provided that you haven't bought HOU at a really high price, then you may not have to sit too long to break even. I got in on some positions at $7 and I am not worried. I knew that it is more of a longer term play when I bought it.
Originally posted by ercchry
Leveraged long term holds don't work... Even if oil goes up I doubt you'll break even
Listen to what ercchry said and read up about HOU or search this thread. It's been discussed in this thread and HOU cannot be held hoping for oil to recover. You will lose (like many people have learned the hard way).
max_boost
12-07-2015, 02:04 PM
lol come on Beyond we have been through this before on HOU/HOD etc.
Go use excel and watch it go to zero :rofl: Because even the smart ones will prefer to watch it go to zero than sell at a loss. It's amazing. :rofl:
jefferson2
12-07-2015, 02:05 PM
Love your Keurig?
Let it pay you one last time!
GMCR (Keurig Green Mountain) today announced that it has entered into a definitive merger agreement under which a JAB-led investor group will acquire Keurig Green Mountain for $92.00 per share in cash, or a total equity value of approximately $13.9 billion.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/JAB+Holding+to+Acquire+Keurig+Green+Mountain+%28GMCR%29+for+$92Share/11130683.html
What's the play?
Buy the stock now (currently trading at $89.xx), and get paid $92 in Q1 2016.
Quick easy way to get 3% return, or 12% on an annual basis.
Something safer than the oil bets we all love.
bjstare
12-07-2015, 04:07 PM
Originally posted by roopi
Listen to what ercchry said and read up about HOU or search this thread. It's been discussed in this thread and HOU cannot be held hoping for oil to recover. You will lose (like many people have learned the hard way).
Can't overstate this. And UWTI/DWTI value will deteriorate faster than HOU/HOD.
Max Boost made a good point a few pages back - if you're looking for a long term hold that moves (kind of) with the price of oil, get XEG (or if you want to do it in USD, get XLE). Alternatively, CCX could be an option for a longer hold, although it's a pretty young fund and trades at very low volume in comparison to the other two I mentioned, that's a bit of the reason I've stayed away from it.
max_boost
12-07-2015, 04:45 PM
Xeg is the energy index for the tsx and that has been killed as well (of course)
Try HUC. It's oil futures no leverage but for the next dec delivery. I don't get it. Why can't they just put out a non leverage HOU. They have it for the other commodities. :nut:
bjstare
12-07-2015, 05:18 PM
Originally posted by max_boost
Xeg is the energy index for the tsx and that has been killed as well (of course)
Try HUC. It's oil futures no leverage but for the next dec delivery. I don't get it. Why can't they just put out a non leverage HOU. They have it for the other commodities. :nut:
Unless I'm marthing, a non leverage HOU (or HOD) is CCX.
Smart investment people care to chime in?
cloud7
12-08-2015, 10:56 AM
Originally posted by roopi
Listen to what ercchry said and read up about HOU or search this thread. It's been discussed in this thread and HOU cannot be held hoping for oil to recover. You will lose (like many people have learned the hard way).
Originally posted by max_boost
lol come on Beyond we have been through this before on HOU/HOD etc.
Go use excel and watch it go to zero :rofl: Because even the smart ones will prefer to watch it go to zero than sell at a loss. It's amazing. :rofl:
I absolutely agree. I should have clarified myself a little better. I am not worried YET with my HOU since I have more HOD on hand. But I might take my gains today since $ in the pocket is always better than $ sitting in the market... given how volatile for the foreseeable future.
SilverRex
12-09-2015, 09:02 AM
while I am long gold/silver mining stocks I am going to take some gains off the table and reduce half my position in yri in anticipation that we have not seen a capitulation move down. If and when this happens I will load it right up and prosper in 2016
cloud7
12-09-2015, 09:37 AM
According to the EIA, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week (more than API's number). This is at least some news for WTI after a few days bad news.
quick_scar
12-09-2015, 09:58 AM
Originally posted by cjblair
I tripled down on POU yesterday haha, I was waiting for a steep drop like that. If they get dragged into the $5-7 range like they did in '08 I'll probably buy more, but if they hit $16-17 before then, I'm out.
Still holding?
I think if they can pull off the asset sale they are looking at, it will fix their balance sheet quite a bit and allow them to ride this out. My guess is ~12 share price if the sales go through. thoughts?
JustinL
12-09-2015, 01:02 PM
You guys have balls buying into money losing companies during falling prices. It seems like lottery ticket stocks at this point, but I will be very impressed if you can catch this falling knife.
max_boost
12-09-2015, 01:50 PM
Originally posted by cloud7
I absolutely agree. I should have clarified myself a little better. I am not worried YET with my HOU since I have more HOD on hand. But I might take my gains today since $ in the pocket is always better than $ sitting in the market... given how volatile for the foreseeable future. Oh man good run for HOD haha $11 to $18 haha much guts required. :nut: :thumbsup:
bjstare
12-09-2015, 01:57 PM
Originally posted by quick_scar
Still holding?
I think if they can pull off the asset sale they are looking at, it will fix their balance sheet quite a bit and allow them to ride this out. My guess is ~12 share price if the sales go through. thoughts?
Yeah I'm either holding until I make money or it flatlines, it only represents a small % of my portfolio.
It kind of goes without saying that their ability to ride this out depends on just how long oil prices are depressed like this. I have faith they will, but who knows - it is a bit of a gamble, as previously mentioned. TBH I have no idea what to expect for a share price if they're able to unload some assets. I gotta think it will help, but doubling it from where we're at today? Not sure.
liquid1010
12-09-2015, 11:40 PM
Any thoughts on PennWest (PWT) or Painted Pony (PPY)?
SilverRex
12-10-2015, 08:49 AM
Originally posted by liquid1010
Any thoughts on PennWest (PWT) or Painted Pony (PPY)?
ive bought some pwt near 1.00 just for fun given there will be alot of whipsaw with oil trading under 40 (while it find's its low) there will be alot of swings in both directions. it is a pure short term play for me
technical wise on oil the current wave count target is at 35.89 then we should see another rally back to retest near the 40 range with a steeper downside target that could reach as low as 32 dollar unless it can invalidate the current resistance over 40.70 area
ive just exited all my mining stocks position in anticipation for a final drop in the metals sectors and will re-enter at a better price
Red@8
12-10-2015, 08:10 PM
Holy TBE getting killed.
Vanish3d
12-11-2015, 08:52 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
technical wise on oil the current wave count target is at 35.89 then we should see another rally back to retest near the 40 range with a steeper downside target that could reach as low as 32 dollar unless it can invalidate the current resistance over 40.70 area
So.... how about that rally right about now? ..... below 35.89....
SilverRex
12-11-2015, 09:03 AM
Originally posted by Vanish3d
So.... how about that rally right about now? ..... below 35.89....
yes possible bounce with larger target still to be fulfilled in the 32.xx area unless 40.70 is broken to the upside.
I sold my pwt yesterday with a 20% gain and looking to buy back so very tempting.
I have re-opened a small position in yri as gold rebounded strongly taking out an important resistance which now gave some life with a possibility of further strength. (over all technical picture still looks bearish) will conserve my ammo if a better opportunity/price presents itself
update: sold pwt for a mere 5% gain very little activity. dont want to hold this over the weekend with the potential of a gap down on monday. The big rate hike next week should bring back volumn
Feruk
12-11-2015, 11:22 AM
Any thoughts on TBE? They're down like 40% in a few days and seem financially significantly healthier than some of their competition.
max_boost
12-13-2015, 08:50 PM
Next stop 12500 TSX tomorrow? :cry:
Xtrema
12-14-2015, 10:56 AM
Originally posted by max_boost
Next stop 12500 TSX tomorrow? :cry:
Looks that way, the day isn't over yet. :cry:
I'm kinda glad I diverted some outside Canada but still hurts.
roopi
12-14-2015, 11:34 AM
Started buying TCK.B today. Will most likely add over the next few months as it bottoms out.
ickyflex
12-14-2015, 01:39 PM
Originally posted by Feruk
Any thoughts on TBE? They're down like 40% in a few days and seem financially significantly healthier than some of their competition.
They are seeking strategic alternatives currently. Market doesn't seem to like it nor do they think anything will come out of it. Saunders has totally lost the faith of any investor so it's a gamble more than anything but I don't disagree they have a somewhat cleaner balance sheet than others in their range.
SilverRex
12-15-2015, 08:48 AM
well the short term oil counter rally is finally happening, pwt is rising as expected. unless the rally can close above 40.70 and also depending how the wave structure of the rise unfolds expectation is that it will be short lived as it still may fulfill the 32.xx area target. (worse case scenario pegs further downside into the 2x.xx as well as 13-16 dollar oil. Scary stuff. If anyone is playing oil right now, keep it short term and continue to buy back or look for better price entries
max_boost
12-16-2015, 04:31 PM
America raises rates .25, stocks rally. Continuous rally? I'm just trying to short term trade for 4-5% gains here. Another 200pts+ tmr and I'm likely to exit. :dunno:
SilverRex
12-21-2015, 08:26 AM
imo oil has put in a medium term bottom here, looking for a corrective rally back to at leas 37 possibly even back to the 39-40 area before another sell off begins towards a final low
ercchry
12-21-2015, 09:09 AM
LRE buyout at $0.52 :eek:
riander5
12-21-2015, 09:13 AM
Big buyout for LRE
DIS options are killing me here... fack
bjstare
12-21-2015, 09:22 AM
Originally posted by riander5
Big buyout for LRE
DIS options are killing me here... fack
Does anyone know why LRE is trading so far below 0.52 right now? Just curious.
And RE: DIS trading down, I was discussing that just a min ago with a buddy at work and we're both surprised. :(
jacky4566
12-21-2015, 09:28 AM
In Forex news. I just made a cool 50% on bitcoins. 410-> 620 These bubbles are getting really predicable.
riander5
12-21-2015, 09:35 AM
Originally posted by cjblair
Does anyone know why LRE is trading so far below 0.52 right now? Just curious.
And RE: DIS trading down, I was discussing that just a min ago with a buddy at work and we're both surprised. :(
Yea i caught the ride up last time and made good money, lost it all and more expecting star wars to keep the momentum going. One dipshit analyst mentions ESPN and they drop 5%.. fuck me
ercchry
12-21-2015, 10:01 AM
Originally posted by cjblair
Does anyone know why LRE is trading so far below 0.52 right now? Just curious.
http://boereport.com/2015/12/21/long-run-exploration-ltd-announces-plan-of-arrangement/
My guess would be speculation that they may have issues meeting conditions? :dunno:
max_boost
12-23-2015, 02:49 PM
Buy Buy Buy!
Everything higher cause OPEC says so! $95 oil baby!
:rofl:
SilverRex
12-24-2015, 08:47 AM
^ im pretty sure low oil prices are intentional. And EW suggest we are currently marking the final C wave low (it may have completed this if oil can move back above 40ish) which means it is all upside from here for the next decade.
if indeed higher oil prices im just glad it will bring stability back in Alberta
BavarianBeast
12-24-2015, 08:52 AM
Solar stocks are great right now.
SLTD
FSLR
TAN
CSIQ
bjstare
12-24-2015, 09:00 AM
Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Solar stocks are great right now.
SLTD
FSLR
TAN
CSIQ
I've been thinking of picking up TAN or CSIQ as of late. I think there's huge growth potential in that sector.
cloud7
12-24-2015, 11:40 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
^ im pretty sure low oil prices are intentional. And EW suggest we are currently marking the final C wave low (it may have completed this if oil can move back above 40ish) which means it is all upside from here for the next decade.
if indeed higher oil prices im just glad it will bring stability back in Alberta
Let's hope we have seen the bottom.
SilverRex
01-04-2016, 09:07 AM
as expected. currently riding pwt for oil to retest near 40 dollars. we will find out if the low is in place or not depending on how we react to this key resistance level.
mining stocks looking good to begin the year. Key area for gold needs to capture price above 1088 to create a new bullish pattern otherwise all technical analysis continues to favor the downside.
Are we in the same period as everyone was so certain for gold above 2k only to see it completely collapsed? Everyone is calling for below 1000 gold, sort of makes me doubt it will ever happen.
other key prices to watch is ABX.to is ready to retest 11 dollars after many failed attempt, a close above this would be another reason to smile for gold bulls
SilverRex
01-06-2016, 08:40 AM
ABX broked a multi month resistance, gold captured above 1088, these are all bullish signals. Is the low in gold finally set? i welcome another decade of long gold/silver ;)
cloud7
01-06-2016, 12:58 PM
Oil down $2 today to about $34. It seems oil just wants to go lower... despite a >5 million barrel decrease in inventory last week.
I am glad to see gold coming back a little bit though.
SilverRex
01-06-2016, 01:51 PM
Originally posted by cloud7
Oil down $2 today to about $34. It seems oil just wants to go lower... despite a >5 million barrel decrease in inventory last week.
I am glad to see gold coming back a little bit though.
really thought it would retest near 40 before heading back down, but technically oil has and still trying to trace out a final low in the 32 area at the minimum so this was never surprising.
gold on the hand was in a similar situation but is beginning to look more bullish the longer it remains above 1088
max_boost
01-07-2016, 12:21 PM
What is this new years meltdown lol under 12500 now. gonna get in and hope for a bounce to 13k next week
BavarianBeast
01-07-2016, 12:31 PM
Why not hold til 15k :devil:
max_boost
01-07-2016, 12:36 PM
haha being the shit investor/trader I am
TFSA to short term trade the index. RRSP to hold and collect the 3% lol
Let's see which one wins in the long run. :nut:
cloud7
01-07-2016, 12:37 PM
Originally posted by max_boost
What is this new years meltdown lol under 12500 now. gonna get in and hope for a bounce to 13k next week
My brother, who trades for a living, has warned me that a correction will come in 2016 or early 2017. Maybe this is it.
max_boost
01-07-2016, 12:45 PM
but what's a correction? <10k TSX? haha
Well eff at $20 oil ya maybe hey.
Manhattan
01-07-2016, 01:13 PM
Everyone and their brother has been expecting a correction. Question is when. 10 to 25% and it'll probably affect US more given they are more overpriced than CAD markets.
revelations
01-07-2016, 01:19 PM
Thanks to the Feds walking away with QE3, along with an American interest rate hike, the markets are no longer being supported artificially.
"Short/inverse" is the new paradigm, at least in the intern. Expect the usual bounces along fib retrace and previous support levels.
max_boost
01-08-2016, 04:30 PM
Originally posted by Manhattan
Everyone and their brother has been expecting a correction. Question is when. 10 to 25% and it'll probably affect US more given they are more overpriced than CAD markets. CAD market already down 20% from its high. I've been caught on my last 3 positions on the index because it keeps dropping :banghead: :rofl: 13,500, 13,000 and 12,500, next purchase is set at 12,000. At some point I have to make some money right? Averaging down are the two words that always haunt me. In the mean time I supposed this is kinda fun? :dunno:
Vanish3d
01-11-2016, 11:41 AM
$20's oil here we come.....
Manhattan
01-11-2016, 11:43 AM
FWIW - BMO is expecting TSX to outperform US markets in 2016. Expects 15,300 TSX by end of year. Either way, patience is a virtue.
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/trading-desk/tsx-to-outperform-sp-500-in-2016-bmo
cidley69
01-12-2016, 01:36 PM
Originally posted by Vanish3d
$20's oil here we come.....
Anyone else all in on HOD?
max_boost
01-12-2016, 03:57 PM
Looking at oil futures and if this drop into the 20's is prolonged. HOD is gonna be :bigpimp: Stellar last two months lol
I dunno where 15,300 TSX is gonna come from without the help of oil but who knows! lol
revelations
01-12-2016, 04:04 PM
HOD.TO is not sustainable right now, expect a short term pullback.
Regardless, I wouldnt hang on to this stock for more than 1-2 months if long.
bjstare
01-12-2016, 05:02 PM
Originally posted by cidley69
Anyone else all in on HOD?
Fuck no, not after this drop. If I was in HOD right now, I would absolutely be taking profits at this point. All is has to do is trade sideways for 6 weeks and you can kiss your share value goodbye.
I might get back in to HOU/UWTI if we ever see low $20s, but I won't get into a leveraged stock when it's got the potential to move sideways for a while. Been there, done that.
max_boost
01-13-2016, 01:48 PM
Ugly day on the markets. Oil flat line but HOD +5%. Why? Must be the rollover. Contango baby. :rofl:
Such momentum. Are we dipping into the 11,XXX TSX this week? :cry:
bjstare
01-13-2016, 02:51 PM
I'm really struggling not to buy AMZN right now. They've seen so much red this week. I've been wanting to get back in for a couple months now, so this might be my shot.
Manhattan
01-13-2016, 02:55 PM
^
Am I reading this correctly that AMZN is trading at 840+ P/E ratio?
bjstare
01-13-2016, 02:58 PM
Originally posted by Manhattan
^
Am I reading this correctly that AMZN is trading at 840+ P/E ratio?
Yeah, their P/E has been out to lunch ever since I've traded them (2015 pretty much), possibly/likely before then as well.
know1edge
01-13-2016, 07:07 PM
.
avishal26
01-13-2016, 08:10 PM
Who is still holding MEG? :rofl:
$4.99 close today...
Vanish3d
01-14-2016, 08:51 AM
Originally posted by SilverRex
imo oil has put in a medium term bottom here, looking for a corrective rally back to at leas 37 possibly even back to the 39-40 area before another sell off begins towards a final low
SilverRex,
where is the next support level that would likely trigger mini rally?
Although, I think all technical analysis is out the window right now with this falling knife.
Sugarphreak
01-14-2016, 08:52 AM
...
phreezee
01-14-2016, 08:58 AM
Sold all my weed stocks, since Justin Turdeau can't keep promises.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/01/05/legalizing-marijuana-could-violate-global-treaties-trudeau-warned.html
phreezee
01-14-2016, 09:00 AM
Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I am...ffs, where is the buyout offer on them already
Any thoughts of averaging down?
Feruk
01-14-2016, 09:18 AM
Originally posted by phreezee
Sold all my weed stocks, since Justin Turdeau can't keep promises.
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/01/05/legalizing-marijuana-could-violate-global-treaties-trudeau-warned.html
My bigger concern is what happens to the price of pot when it's eventually legalized. Already seeing massive price drops in the US.
avishal26
01-14-2016, 09:38 PM
Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I am...ffs, where is the buyout offer on them already
If it makes you feel any better, I just averaged down at $6.8 last week thinking I got a great deal :rofl:
Sugarphreak
01-14-2016, 09:54 PM
...
max_boost
01-15-2016, 10:23 AM
Well next tsx entry is here lol 12000
phreezee
01-15-2016, 10:27 AM
Originally posted by avishal26
If it makes you feel any better, I just averaged down at $6.8 last week thinking I got a great deal :rofl:
Me too :rofl:
max_boost
01-15-2016, 10:28 AM
Another 10% day for HOD. Lol oh man.
Kloubek
01-15-2016, 10:38 AM
I've been absolutely trounced over the last couple of weeks as well. My GoPro stocks are going to be of the penny variety soon enough, and oil... well... we all know how those are doing.
Lost perhaps $2000 total. I really suck at this stock game.
SilverRex
01-15-2016, 10:53 AM
Originally posted by Vanish3d
SilverRex,
where is the next support level that would likely trigger mini rally?
Although, I think all technical analysis is out the window right now with this falling knife.
the 32 area target was a pretty significant one, I was just surprised how fast it broke thru this. looking at the current wave structure (regardless if a lower low is still to come or not) a short term bounce should be imminent.
to say we may have struck a long term bottom, we need to recapture above 32.19 , basically 32 is the new 40 area a key resistance.
the next key major support lies in the 15-17 area, but that is so bearish it would require an outright collapse or economy crash. personally I do not see this happening, I am expecting continue weakness in the equity market as all technical indicator has turned bearish. Yes we are officially in a bear market for stocks. I think it will drop to a point forcing the fed to release further QE. the next wave of QE will then reverse all equities into new highs. the next new cycle high will bring about an even greater collapse which will usher in a new monetary system.
you have extreme bearish deflationist who are calling a straight crash now and also inflationist who is calling new high in stocks now. but the greatest wreckage will come in between. The market has a tendency to prove everyone wrong and destroy everyone's confidence. just when everyone thought its over it reverses in strides and vice versa. Rinse and repeat until everyone gives up
bjstare
01-15-2016, 11:14 AM
Originally posted by Kloubek
I've been absolutely trounced over the last couple of weeks as well.
You haven't lost (or made) any money until you actually sell, important to remember in times like this.
Chances are everyone is looking at red after the last few weeks. Only exceptions are people that are successful/lucky with day trading - I have a buddy whos made some ok money with HXD.
Right now I'm happy to be in a place where I don't have to sell anything in the forseeable future, and I have a bit of excess cash for when things go on sale. :dunno: All about how you look at it.
BavarianBeast
01-15-2016, 11:16 AM
6 figures in the red now.
fack me
BigMass
01-15-2016, 11:32 AM
anyone keeping an eye on the downtown highrises?
http://i.imgur.com/J3PKqZy.gif
http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mam486apAY1rdid2ao1_400.gif
http://gifrific.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Jumping-Out-of-Window.gif
Khyron
01-15-2016, 12:06 PM
Originally posted by phreezee
Any thoughts of averaging down?
Bought some more BTE. It went down again. :P
Short term became long term - 18-24 months I think I'll be happy.
max_boost
01-15-2016, 12:30 PM
I wish I had balls to buy HOD.
SilverRex
01-15-2016, 02:16 PM
Originally posted by max_boost
I wish I had balls to buy HOD.
dont worry, missing out on opportunities is far better than holding the bag deep in the red.
I am sure everyone knows by now that cash is a position
max_boost
01-15-2016, 02:22 PM
I have friends willing to hold HOU till it hits zero. Refuse to look at. Refuse to sell. Refuse to do anything but keep it here. :nut:
max_boost
01-15-2016, 02:25 PM
I took another position in XIU at 17.73, I'm up to 7000 shares across the portfolios. I need a bounce here. :nut:
Manhattan
01-15-2016, 02:44 PM
Originally posted by max_boost
I have friends willing to hold HOU till it hits zero. Refuse to look at. Refuse to sell. Refuse to do anything but keep it here. :nut:
If you believe in value investing that's exactly what you should do.
bjstare
01-15-2016, 03:07 PM
Originally posted by Manhattan
If you believe in value investing that's exactly what you should do.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but that doesn't hold true with leveraged stocks (i.e. HOU), since their intrinsic value deteriorates over time. HOU @ $29WTI today will be worth more than HOU @ $29WTI in 2 weeks. Holding HOU only works if you get that bounce in the near term.
Manhattan
01-15-2016, 03:27 PM
Why would intrinsic value decrease? It's rebalanced daily to ensure proper leverage so I'd imagine there's some inaccuracies there. But you'd think it would be minimal. :dunno:
riander5
01-15-2016, 03:35 PM
Originally posted by Khyron
Bought some more BTE. It went down again. :P
Short term became long term - 18-24 months I think I'll be happy.
BTE are you fackin crazy
They are getting pummelled for a reason.
max_boost
01-15-2016, 03:51 PM
Definitely doesn't work for 2X leverage unless linear growth. However who am I to explain to these Haskayne grads. I went to SAIT. :D
ickyflex
01-15-2016, 04:05 PM
Originally posted by riander5
BTE are you fackin crazy
They are getting pummelled for a reason.
It's not that crazy of a gamble...
Lets look at the picture.
2016 - Like every producer, they are outside their debt covenants (Biggest Current Risk if you believe they will not renegotiate this successfully).
2020 - Some of their long term debt begins to mature
2021 - 1.6 Billion of Long Term Debt Matures
Currently Borrowing $200MM of their $1 Billion credit facility.
Conclusion:
If you are an oil bull...hell of a gamble for an easy 5-10x return if oil can make a rebound to $60 by year end.
If you are neutral...great gamble if you believe oil will make a slow recovery to maybe $45 and they are able to renegotiate their covenants.
Bearish..don't touch it if you don't see any recovery in oil and you don't see them being able to renegotiate their covenants.
End of the day is if they can survive this year then they will be okay
roopi
01-15-2016, 04:11 PM
Originally posted by max_boost
I have friends willing to hold HOU till it hits zero. Refuse to look at. Refuse to sell. Refuse to do anything but keep it here. :nut:
I hope you at least attempted to explain to them that it will go to zero.
Originally posted by Manhattan
If you believe in value investing that's exactly what you should do.
Doesn't work with leveraged stocks.
Originally posted by cjblair
Correct me if I'm wrong, but that doesn't hold true with leveraged stocks (i.e. HOU), since their intrinsic value deteriorates over time. HOU @ $29WTI today will be worth more than HOU @ $29WTI in 2 weeks. Holding HOU only works if you get that bounce in the near term.
You are basically correct.
Originally posted by Manhattan
Why would intrinsic value decrease? It's rebalanced daily to ensure proper leverage so I'd imagine there's some inaccuracies there. But you'd think it would be minimal. :dunno:
It's been covered in this thread multiple times. It doesn't work holding on to leveraged stocks. Use them short term and that's it.
max_boost
01-18-2016, 02:21 PM
Sell off continues. :zzz:
BavarianBeast
01-18-2016, 02:35 PM
Any thoughts on BR.TO?
Thinking about taking a big position in them...
roopi
01-18-2016, 02:57 PM
Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Any thoughts on BR.TO?
Thinking about taking a big position in them...
I first became interested in buying some about 5 years ago. Did a bunch of research and decided there was better places to invest. Every year I would go back and look at it but would never buy it. No real reason why other then the growth potential wasn't there.
Why are you considering taking a position in this?
riander5
01-18-2016, 03:01 PM
br.to looks like trying to catch a falling knife to me... I was actually looking at them when they took a massive drop ~1 year ago. They are getting pummeled by microbreweries but you'd think the upside now is greater than potential downside?
phreezee
01-18-2016, 03:09 PM
Beer consumption in general is trending down with this generation. BR is not hipster.
BavarianBeast
01-18-2016, 03:26 PM
I was considering them because of the severe beating they have taken over the past 4 years and I see some upside in them. I think Bob Sartor is finally figuring the business out and I think they are ready to climb into the double digits again. I guess at 4 bucks a share, I just feel it's worth a drop in the bucket.. I also drink a boat-load of Grasshopper/Traditional, so I may as well support my go-to beer company!
roopi
01-18-2016, 03:52 PM
Originally posted by BavarianBeast
I also drink a boat-load of Grasshopper/Traditional, so I may as well support my go-to beer company!
:rofl: This was why I first looked at the company as well. After reading there latest earnings it didn't look too bad since volume is increasing but the profit just doesn't seem to be there yet.
At current levels I think the risk is low. I don't like the fact that there has been insider sales at these levels though. Mostly Clayton Riddell which doesn't mean much IMO but I still don't like it.
Good luck if you decide too.
riander5
01-18-2016, 04:06 PM
Originally posted by BavarianBeast
I was considering them because of the severe beating they have taken over the past 4 years and I see some upside in them. I think Bob Sartor is finally figuring the business out and I think they are ready to climb into the double digits again. I guess at 4 bucks a share, I just feel it's worth a drop in the bucket.. I also drink a boat-load of Grasshopper/Traditional, so I may as well support my go-to beer company!
I was going to say my grass / trad consumption has dropped significantly in the past few years due to drinking more micro brews - didnt want to sound like a hipster though :D
Khyron
01-18-2016, 05:41 PM
Originally posted by BavarianBeast
I was considering them because of the severe beating they have taken over the past 4 years and I see some upside in them. I think Bob Sartor is finally figuring the business out and I think they are ready to climb into the double digits again. I guess at 4 bucks a share, I just feel it's worth a drop in the bucket.. I also drink a boat-load of Grasshopper/Traditional, so I may as well support my go-to beer company!
The expansion into BC went well. The huge drop was because the dividend was cut (to pay for expansion/growth). Product line is innovative and the core Grass/Trad are still great. AB is just a crowded, unrestricted marketplace. NDP have fixed the huge tax mistake the PC's rammed through near the end. I bought a ton at 7$, will buy more, eventually. I think oil companies have a greater reward possibility in the next 6-12 months though...
oz388
01-18-2016, 10:47 PM
if any of you thinking oil price will rebound soon; just go look at nature gas price and you will realize how long you will have to wait on this one...oil has done its run for the passed 10 years and its the time to hibernate for the next 10.
dirtsniffer
01-18-2016, 11:35 PM
Oh really why do you say that?
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