Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Do you trade for a living SilverRex?

nope but I did use to spend 90% studying, analyzing and also trade plenty before I got married. Then I had to put this on pulse a couple of years until my kids grew older. The market has regain my attention lately and I feel there are now opportunities.

if anyone was trading K (kinross gold) it went from the low of the day at 2.66 to 3.17 19%+

whats important is that this is a confirmation breakout with significant volume

also checkout the hui chart (bel0w) which compares the run with 2000 and 2008.

as you can see if this indeed a new bull market, then we should have a very nice predictable pattern in progress.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1454703684.php

[riander5]

So do you look at index's (like that hui - not even sure what that is) the commodity specifically, or individual stocks? What are your main technical indicators.. besides that you look for big volume when your breakout signals confirm?

[SilverRex]

oil has developed a head and shoulder pattern in the last couple of weeks and it broke the neckline this morning by falling under 30 dollars. while H&S pattern are about 60% accurate and usually is a bottoming reversal or topping scenario it can still be 'a' indicator. This would suggest a price target in around 25.00

it may or may not get there but with the right market news/panic we could, and if we do, hold on to your heads as this may present some great opportunities in the oil sector as Warren buffet famous buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy

gold after reaching a key resistance area at around 1191 and 1200. it has taking a slight breather. I am hoping this breather will translate into further weakness/retracement down to the 1170 area first stop follow by 1150 and ultimately a very strong support at 1120-1125.

those are the areas I will be looking to begin re-entering my position in the mining sector however i did pickup a small position to ride the wave


(obviously the longer price move sideways and refuse to drop further the more likely it still has more fuel to push higher into the next key resistance area between 1214-1231

[ickyflex]

Any thoughts on AQN?

I held at 8, sold at 9.50 and now am contemplating picking them up after this huge post acquisition

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil has developed a head and shoulder pattern in the last couple of weeks and it broke the neckline this morning by falling under 30 dollars. while H&S pattern are about 60% accurate and usually is a bottoming reversal or topping scenario it can still be 'a' indicator. This would suggest a price target in around 25.00

it may or may not get there but with the right market news/panic we could, and if we do, hold on to your heads as this may present some great opportunities in the oil sector as Warren buffet famous buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy

gold after reaching a key resistance area at around 1191 and 1200. it has taking a slight breather. I am hoping this breather will translate into further weakness/retracement down to the 1170 area first stop follow by 1150 and ultimately a very strong support at 1120-1125.

those are the areas I will be looking to begin re-entering my position in the mining sector however i did pickup a small position to ride the wave


(obviously the longer price move sideways and refuse to drop further the more likely it still has more fuel to push higher into the next key resistance area between 1214-1231

So... are you using trendlines for support, past lows/highs, fib retract, elliot wave?

[slcchyd]

last 12 months sell history at SPRINGBOROUGH, please.

thanks

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5


So... are you using trendlines for support, past lows/highs, fib retract, elliot wave?

yes I look at all aspects of technical analysis while one can certainly always find a indicator to support a bias view at least it gives me a bit more confidence to pull the trigger.

while gold has not retraced significantly (yet) some stock has hit its first fib entrancement area. I am loading up some position.

as for oil as mentioned a day ago, the H&S pattern is signaling 25 dollar oil and breakdown has begun.

here is an investing chart between the correlation of gold and the Yen, somehow it performs or has been a leading indicator of where gold may be headed.

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ihbJ-7d8QJ4/Vro6Gh7icsI/AAAAAAAAG-c/58IucHnpmfU/s1600/3.png

as you can see, gold lags but moves in similar fashion. This completely lines up with the current expectation that gold (even if it heads slightly lower) shoot still be pushing for a higher high then a more significant draw back occurs this would be another golden opportunity to load up on mining stocks

[roopi]

Originally posted by slcchyd
last 12 months sell history at SPRINGBOROUGH, please.

thanks

Try this thread:
http://forums.beyond.ca/st/246264/wanna-know-what-your-neighbours-house-sold-for/

[riander5]

Thats an interesting chart. Ill definitely follow that / trace it back further to see how long its been valid.

What are you guys thinking for oil / gas ETFs?

Im more confident in a floor for natty gas... Upside to gas is anywhere from 2-2.50, but could possibly go down to 1.70 again. Tight SL on UGAZ?

No idea what oil is going to do... always seems to find ways to sink, but a UWTI play now has big upside even if it heads back to 30. Buy now, leverage down to 25 and wait for a few weeks?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Thats an interesting chart. Ill definitely follow that / trace it back further to see how long its been valid.

What are you guys thinking for oil / gas ETFs?

Im more confident in a floor for natty gas... Upside to gas is anywhere from 2-2.50, but could possibly go down to 1.70 again. Tight SL on UGAZ?

No idea what oil is going to do... always seems to find ways to sink, but a UWTI play now has big upside even if it heads back to 30. Buy now, leverage down to 25 and wait for a few weeks?

i havent been looking at natgas but the last time I checked it apperas natgas has already put in a cyclical bottom while (oil is trying to do the same right now)

[SilverRex]

well so far everything moving according to plan, pickup a couple of position all in the green between 3-10%

now im hoping gold will at least break above 1200 for one more thrust to a newer high then I will take profit and wait for a bigger pull back

[SilverRex]

wow gold exploded over night and reached as high as 1242. glad I loaded up a couple positions yesterday.

not only did gold take out a previous intermediate high at 1191 now it punched thru 1232 like it was nothing. in all seriousness bear markets rarely do this and indicative of trend change. if 1232 doesnt hold the momentum next up is 1307 - the daily 200 moving average at 1257 may be the next area that can hold down this mad bull

fear is now in full scale and the world is on edge. anyone in equities other than gold/silver to caution

ill begin unwinding my mining position and start taking profit since what I have learn in my past experience is there will always be opportunity and I do expect a bigger pull back for gold once this 5 wave up off the bottom is in place

[SilverRex]

already sold one position at open, if gold can hit 1250-1257 I may unwind all my position once again and wait on the side line for re-entry

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


:thumbsup:

Thanks dude.

Decided to buy some B2GOLD and also some Yamana. Didn't have any metals stock in my portfolio..

Well this has been one of the best trades for me in the past year. Planning on holding both for several months though.

[SilverRex]

the gains in such a short period is sickening, k.to kinross gold has moved 114% in 3 weeks. while all my position is in yamana gold, I regret not switching over when I had the chance. I recall deciding to go after kinross during the latest pull back and went both feet in on Yamana instead. still I cant argue all the profits I made this year.

sold the rest of my 2 position in Yri.to will wait for a pull back. not liking the fact that gold pushed thru from 1249 to 1260 yet yri cannot break today's high

will now wait for a bigger pull back and a low in gold some time first week of March.

[birdman86]

Originally posted by SilverRex
the gains in such a short period is sickening, k.to kinross gold has moved 114% in 3 weeks. while all my position is in yamana gold, I regret not switching over when I had the chance. I recall deciding to go after kinross during the latest pull back and went both feet in on Yamana instead. still I cant argue all the profits I made this year.

sold the rest of my 2 position in Yri.to will wait for a pull back. not liking the fact that gold pushed thru from 1249 to 1260 yet yri cannot break today's high

will now wait for a bigger pull back and a low in gold some time first week of March.

Are your trades based mostly on technical patterns?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by birdman86


Are your trades based mostly on technical patterns?

yes I trade mostly on technical analysis, while no analysis is ever guaranteed however i do find it extremely useful and so far the technical analysis lately has been quite accurate

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
the gains in such a short period is sickening, k.to kinross gold has moved 114% in 3 weeks. while all my position is in yamana gold, I regret not switching over when I had the chance. I recall deciding to go after kinross during the latest pull back and went both feet in on Yamana instead. still I cant argue all the profits I made this year.

sold the rest of my 2 position in Yri.to will wait for a pull back. not liking the fact that gold pushed thru from 1249 to 1260 yet yri cannot break today's high

will now wait for a bigger pull back and a low in gold some time first week of March.

It sickens me that i didnt listen and throw some money in like BB and instead absorbed more oil losses

[max_boost]

Oh man perhaps that's the bottom for gold. I wonder how many out there refused to sell or buy and watched K drop from $20 to $2 haha same goes for any oil/gas stock as well.

One of my suppliers bought HGU at $100 and it's at $30 now. The bounce from $15 to $30 must have felt so good for him with 2000 shares.

[Khyron]

Originally posted by SilverRex
the gains in such a short period is sickening, k.to kinross gold has moved 114% in 3 weeks. while all my position is in yamana gold, I regret not switching over when I had the chance. I recall deciding to go after kinross during the latest pull back and went both feet in on Yamana instead. still I cant argue all the profits I made this year.

sold the rest of my 2 position in Yri.to will wait for a pull back. not liking the fact that gold pushed thru from 1249 to 1260 yet yri cannot break today's high

will now wait for a bigger pull back and a low in gold some time first week of March.

I followed your advice and sold my Eldorado for 33% gain. Will wait along with you. :)

[max_boost]

The market has dropped 800pts so I'm in again. No technical, just gut analysis. I'm treating it like the casino, just wanna hit and run for 3-4% :rofl:

[revelations]

Originally posted by SilverRex


yes I trade mostly on technical analysis, while no analysis is ever guaranteed however i do find it extremely useful and so far the technical analysis lately has been quite accurate

I can also confirm this, support/resistance levels - combined with fundamentals (the Fed statements) - can make for some high percentage trading in this particular market cycle, when looked at a few days/week time frame.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Khyron


I followed your advice and sold my Eldorado for 33% gain. Will wait along with you. :)

certainly price can do what ever it wants but I feel the 1260 is a very good chance as a resistance to cap this wave 3 of 5 (first leg up gold bull) move, and hoping wave 4 correction will do a back test of the multi-year trend line break near 1191-1213 area then ride it from there to 1300+ to complete the 5 waves. then we will wait for a multi-week/month correction in the typical dull periods between april-june before readying the next major wave up

25 oil here it comes.. doh couldnt push thru bounced right backup

im eyeing pwt/meg for some short term play

update: rumor opec to cut production - if true oil would be pose for a bounce. picked up some MEG for a quick flip

[riander5]

http://s18.postimg.org/nwmtrldo9/Capture.jpg

Who will go DWTI and play this channel? Oil usually touches oversold on its RSI before rebounding, and its still got a little ways to go..

[revelations]

Playing with short term oil flux is one thing, but a fairly sure bet (few weeks time frame) is the Yuan devaluation. The Chinese are off this week on holidays mostly, but next week it the Yuan will take another dump and this ETF will continue to rise up on fundamentals.

[know1edge]

.

[riander5]

Originally posted by know1edge
im gonna load up on weekly puts

On?

[SilverRex]

oil not looking too bad. I may exit my short play on MEG if oil starts testing 29.5+ which I think is key if the final low is in place or further downside ahead.

gold holding well at it's first major support at 1232. I want this to break so I can re-enter my mining position in the low 1200. a couple of mining stocks like Yri, K all have gap to fill about 5-10% below

while dow has fend off from breaking down after retesting the 15500 floor for the 3rd time. I imagine price may move up slightly poke above 16500 for a bull trap before collapsing. I have read that when a support or resistance is tested at least 3 times, there is a high probability it will break sooner or later

[max_boost]

I took the 3% bounce and cashed out today. if it goes up next week, my rrsp's will thank it. fun fun fun.

[el_fefes]

SilverRex, do you ever consider buying HGU instead of the individual companies? It would probably be good to go back in when gold retraces to low 1200's?

[know1edge]

.

[SilverRex]

Very quiet with north american markets on holiday. but gold is now retracing heavily expected. the ideal scenario is to retest the 1191-1200 area our 38% fib entrancement before the next move higher.

I am hoping gold will remain low enough for a steep sell off comes Tuesday and I will begin re-entering the mining sector. as someone mention, HGU is good to play the gold market as well. I just love stocks because thats my preference where I have no problem holding it long term, not a true believer of ETF these days other than short term play

for oil looks like the opec rumor really lit the fuse under oil price, but will this last? another important and interesting week ahead

[RealJimmyJames]

Guesses on 14 day outlook for oil and related stocks? I have some USD denominated oil stock I plan to liquidate in the next little while. Suspect tuesday will open strong, but after that . . . more fear?

[cloud7]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Very quiet with north american markets on holiday. but gold is now retracing heavily expected. the ideal scenario is to retest the 1191-1200 area our 38% fib entrancement before the next move higher.

I am hoping gold will remain low enough for a steep sell off comes Tuesday and I will begin re-entering the mining sector. as someone mention, HGU is good to play the gold market as well. I just love stocks because thats my preference where I have no problem holding it long term, not a true believer of ETF these days other than short term play

for oil looks like the opec rumor really lit the fuse under oil price, but will this last? another important and interesting week ahead

I feel really good that I sold all my HGU on Friday afternoon just before the market closed. We'll see what happens to gold tomorrow...

[birdman86]

Well it's a start I guess

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/russia-saudis-tentatively-offer-to-freeze-oil-output-levels-1.2779632

[joegrang]

I'd like to get into the South Korean Stock market KOSPI. Is anyone in the market? if so what kind of trading firms/tools to buy and sell stock are you using? Thanks

[Sugarphreak]

...

[SilverRex]

so gold in fact bounced off the 1191 area support and completed it's backtest on the previous trend line break in the same area. sadly I am not enjoying the pull back in miners and will only start re-entering my position if it can drop another 5-10%

I suspect it can go two ways, either gold suddenly finds momentum and attempts to make a higher high 1260+ or it can still have a chance at retracement further down to the 1150+ area.

so therefore trade according to your risk appetite as we have enter a no mans land atm. oil did find some mojo due to the opec rumor late friday. and unless it can recapture above 32.5+ then we can entertain an overshooting rally and a chance to test 40 before we possibly enter a 30-40 trading range for a couple of months.

otherwise my expectation is to see stocks roll over and hit a new low this coming weeks so that it can propel gold/mining stocks higher

my view and desire is to see the gold sector continue to make higher highs and higher lows

Range trading would be ideal for both gold and oil

update: im entering a small position on the fact that looking at the Yen/gold correlation, gold is supposed to move higher for another week. and considering it did complete it's backtest I will see if I can ride it for some quick profit. I will keep the rest of my ammo for a larger degree discount

[Sugarphreak]

...

[riander5]

I like NFLX for being first to market, but they do have alot of competition coming up. Google and Amazon might be a bit less growth potential but there is nothing like google and amazon is WAY better than any other online shopper IMO

[RealJimmyJames]

if I'm pumping near the peak of my capacity, it's not a terribly impressive statement to say that I'm not going to pump any higher.

That's like a guy driving a three cylinder chevy sprint (non-turbo) at 124 km/h on the deerfoot and learning over to his date to whisper "I think I won't accelerate any more babe, for you babe."

[RealJimmyJames]

Also, thoughts on vermillion? VET? They are in the news today with a raise in dividend, which makes no sense to me.

[sabad66]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I was thinking about picking up some Amazon, Netflix or Google stock as a longer hold (3 to 9 months)... curious what people think about the longevity of those three at this time
Problem with these (or any US stocks for that matter) is our exchange rate. I feel like CAD->USD is at lowest point and that it can only get better from here, so any gains could potentially be eroded by the FX rate.

[SilverRex]

Yri filled it's cap at 3.41 I have reentered my first big position.

[SilverRex]

added a second position, however I may sell if gold dips below 1190 which is neckline in what appears to be a H&S pattern that can prelude to a fallout towards 1140-50 area

[riander5]

Looks like YRI is still really overbought, although the MACD is crossed over to confirm an uptrend it also is maxing out. Looking at its history an overbought produced a pretty reliable retracing until it is oversold.

I also like using DMI as an indicator, and it appears to be converging, signalling a downtrend.

I hope you get some gains on it but i personally will wait until the indicators trend back towards an entry point

[SilverRex]

if oil can recapture above 32.5 then we may have a bottom in oil (although breaking above 31.5 may also have the same effect and so I would start expecting price to test 40 range. might want to start thinking some long term play here. I see oil back to 50-70 in a year

as for gold I think we are in no mans land, those who sold at the top are waiting for a better entry and those who short it are waiting for a better exit. At this point it can really go either way but to me over all trend remains up so if it does dip lower I will pick up more shares in the metal sector

[Mack10]

Originally posted by SilverRex
Yri filled it's cap at 3.41 I have reentered my first big position.



Originally posted by riander5
Looks like YRI is still really overbought, although the MACD is crossed over to confirm an uptrend it also is maxing out. Looking at its history an overbought produced a pretty reliable retracing until it is oversold.

I also like using DMI as an indicator, and it appears to be converging, signalling a downtrend.

I hope you get some gains on it but i personally will wait until the indicators trend back towards an entry point


YRI releasing their earnings today at market close. Most are bullish on the results. Still trying to decide if I want to jump in before the release

[riander5]

Originally posted by Mack10






YRI releasing their earnings today at market close. Most are bullish on the results. Still trying to decide if I want to jump in before the release

Sounds like a coin flip to me - gold prices have trended down hard over the last quarter - I can imagine people being bullish on outlook but what about the last quarter results would be positive i wonder..

[max_boost]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
I was thinking about picking up some Amazon, Netflix or Google stock as a longer hold (3 to 9 months)... curious what people think about the longevity of those three at this time Ya i dig it except Netflix. What about FB or MSFT

[SilverRex]

couple of days ago when DOW bounced off what appears to be a 3rd time off the 15500 level I mention price may be trying to rally back and poke it's head above 16500 which it did this morning, I believe we are in a junction where this could be a headfake bull trap and we go down from here. or market finds momentum and the bullish tone comes all the way back and we climb higher so today marks a key point technically

for oil it did capture the 32.5 area and so for the medium term a bottom is in and while it can certainly crash and bring back all the negative sentiment however I somehow feel up side remains that we would have a chance to see the 40 area tested in the coming weeks or month.

for gold we have been range bounded for a couple of days which in a way bolds well if your long gold however while I am expecting a bigger pull back to fall some where in the 1140 area, with the current price holding up so well I am incline to think it wants to push or retest 1260. The ideal scenario is to see gold suddenly march higher as if the uptrend has resumed and everyone jumps in only to get trap as it makes a divergence and crash for 2 weeks after. This is what I am waiting for to take profit on my current position - exit near the top and wait for a even bigger discount

[riander5]

Originally posted by revelations
Playing with short term oil flux is one thing, but a fairly sure bet (few weeks time frame) is the Yuan devaluation. The Chinese are off this week on holidays mostly, but next week it the Yuan will take another dump and this ETF will continue to rise up on fundamentals.

that ETF has taken a shit since you posted. Which im sure was expected........... wasnt it? End of jan was the buying opp on that according to technicals. Approaching another buying opp soon i think

[birdman86]

Originally posted by max_boost
Ya i dig it except Netflix. What about FB or MSFT

Agreed things are only going to get tougher for netflix (shomi arguably has better movie selection already) so I'd stay away

Haven't done any homework on it (and haven't bought any) but I like FB, they remind me of google in the beginning. Trying to get into all sorts of stuff (ie occulus) rather than just attempt to cash in on ad revenue... maybe a good long term growth play?

[riander5]

Originally posted by birdman86


Agreed things are only going to get tougher for netflix (shomi arguably has better movie selection already) so I'd stay away

Haven't done any homework on it (and haven't bought any) but I like FB, they remind me of google in the beginning. Trying to get into all sorts of stuff (ie occulus) rather than just attempt to cash in on ad revenue... maybe a good long term growth play?

I think you are backwards here - everything facebook does is for revenue reasons. Occulus rift is to be the next big gaming system ($$), their free internet in poor countries has content selected by Fbook ($$). Cant think of much they have done without money as the main driver.

Google does some things for the good of mankind (unless i am missing some devious behind the scene plots). Google maps... free to everyone and is f*cking awesome. There are plenty of others too I just dont have the time to go through them all. Id invest in google from a moral standpoint because I really like the company

[birdman86]

Originally posted by riander5


I think you are backwards here - everything facebook does is for revenue reasons. Occulus rift is to be the next big gaming system ($$), their free internet in poor countries has content selected by Fbook ($$). Cant think of much they have done without money as the main driver.

Google does some things for the good of mankind (unless i am missing some devious behind the scene plots). Google maps... free to everyone and is f*cking awesome. There are plenty of others too I just dont have the time to go through them all. Id invest in google from a moral standpoint because I really like the company

Yeah I do like google more overall, I just meant for facebook that they're diversifying away from ad revenue (compared to say twitter). The rift is a big gaming development but also a VR/AR development so I can't help but think FB's got bigger ideas with that too.

Like I said I haven't followed them much though so this is all just spit balling but I seem to remember hearing their internet is having some troubles...red flag?

[revelations]

Originally posted by riander5


that ETF has taken a shit since you posted. Which im sure was expected........... wasnt it? End of jan was the buying opp on that according to technicals. Approaching another buying opp soon i think

Bear rallys are quick, short squeezing type - which affected this ETF.

[SilverRex]

gold is moving up nicely. I will now see if I have the courage to hold it a bit longer knowing a bigger pull back will be in the cards as soon as gold finds a top. I am hoping gdx can hit 20-21 from it's current level of around 18s. for another 20-25% move and Yri/K to make new highs.

I will watch it closely, and exit if things dont look right

[el_fefes]

SilverRex are you holding YRI or selling before they release their Q4/2015 results?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
SilverRex are you holding YRI or selling before they release their Q4/2015 results?

well I have been holding for a couple of days and since I am in the green I will hold because gold can still make another 30-60 dollars higher if the resistance at 1232 fails to hold.

well as expected kinross made new highs (gold hasnt even break 1260 yet) will just have to see how the result impact yri after close but from experience I see both Yamana and Kinross keep flip flopping and they would lead each other. hopefully this means Yamana has more room to move

[SilverRex]

seems Yamana was able to beat forecast, now it will be up to the performance of gold today to see if this sector has any more momentum left. My feel after all the technical is to see gold move higher than drop like a brick

[SilverRex]

gold looks like it is consolidating into cup and handle pattern with breakout above 1235, if this pattern succeed gold can rise 40+ and poke it's head slightly above 1260 to cause a much needed negative divergence.

I am waiting for this final runup and will then exit all my position as I am expecting a 2-3 week pull back after to find a much better entry.

however if the cup and handle fails and gold suddenly takes out 1200 I will exit all my position regardless of loss (though im up over 10% atm) and again wait for the same pull back and wont be re-entering until first week of March

clearly the Q4 results for Yamana was positive as it is out performing kinross today, something I have not seen for awhile.

[roopi]

Bought ECA today at 52 week low ($4.35). Will not be holding this into Wednesday's earnings. Gain/Loss this is being sold by Tuesday close at the latest.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by roopi
Bought ECA today at 832 week low ($4.35). Will not be holding this into Wednesday's earnings. Gain/Loss this is being sold by Tuesday close at the latest.

FTFY (yes that's the actual number)

[Manhattan]

Betting on the dead cat bounce haha

[roopi]

Originally posted by cjblair


FTFY (yes that's the actual number)

:rofl:


Originally posted by Manhattan
Betting on the dead cat bounce haha

Sure am. Win some lose some. We'll see how this plays out. Maybe a war will breakout over the weekend. :rofl:

[SilverRex]

well gold suddenly became weaker than I thought, it never triggered the breakout price above 1235 and hence shorts are out in full force.

adding to the weakness is both silver and gold appears to have broke down from a H&S neckline which may add to further weakness. While I did not expect gold to start tumbling down until mid to end of the week and so if the big pullback begins now, then all I have to say is for the next 2 weeks look for absolutely bottom entry in this sector.

Once gold/silver completes its retracement levels, it will launch to a higher high and this could also be a powerful wave 3. Yes for gold bears and those still calling for sub 1k gold price, it will still move higher before it can fall.

the slim hope that gold can still put in a higher high 1260+ before beginning the true pullback, it needs to quickly regain above 1220 and poise itself for a final chance to breakout similar to last friday.

personally I still have some faint hope that gold will still put in a higher high this week and so I will watch the market closely and may even add a position at the bottom if GDX hits below 17. Since it can still be called a wave 4 of 5 with wave 5 leg up.

oil is moving higher nicely as I have mentioned it has now opened up the 30-40 range

[SilverRex]

btw anyone know if there are any ETFs that covers the biotech sectors in a Canadian stock?

update:

bought a small position in HGU, going to be betting on gold that we are still in a wave iv of v leg up with potential to shoot higher still

update:

silver is invalidating it's bearish H&S pattern. a bullish reversal like this could set off a strong week in gold/silver

[riander5]

I see no technical indicators showing anything positive for gold on the daily - other than approaching oversold on stoich RSI

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
I see no technical indicators showing anything positive for gold on the daily - other than approaching oversold on stoich RSI

well you cant tell much on the daily as it is in a consolidation period but if you dial down to the 1 hour chart you can clearly see both silver and gold are in a wave 3 down, wave 3 up then wave 3 down again, a 3,3,3 is generally a counter trend retracement just waiting for a break out trigger to the upside.

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex


well you cant tell much on the daily as it is in a consolidation period but if you dial down to the 1 hour chart you can clearly see both silver and gold are in a wave 3 down, wave 3 up then wave 3 down again, a 3,3,3 is generally a counter trend retracement just waiting for a break out trigger to the upside.

Maybe, i dont have enough time or balls to day trade, so i settle for swing trades so the hourly charts dont apply quite as much. From a daily perspective i see gold coming down a bit in the next few days though.

Also if you go to weekly, MACD looks ok, but stoch RSI was oversold and has produced a pretty reliable signal if you look back over the past few months to sell

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5


Maybe, i dont have enough time or balls to day trade, so i settle for swing trades so the hourly charts dont apply quite as much. From a daily perspective i see gold coming down a bit in the next few days though.

Also if you go to weekly, MACD looks ok, but stoch RSI was oversold and has produced a pretty reliable signal if you look back over the past few months to sell

Yeah do whats best and according to your own trading needs. The one thing I learned recently was that if a new gold bull cycle has indeed started then indicators that was normally good to sell into the bear market will start producing false moves so one has to adapt change and begin looking for bull market clues/signals.

I could very well be overly naive and may become trapped if the move this year is another false one however if gold did struck the low back in December, then there are extreme gains to be had in the weeks ahead.

anyhow it sounds like you have a bit more patience than me so wait until gold bottoms out on the daily cycle and look for your next entry.

[SilverRex]

something is fishy.

while Gold's performance is very lackluster today yet the mining stocks are gaining strength, not only did it fully recovered from today's low some stocks even made new highs (abx)

Something has to give, either it is a leading indicator that gold is about to breakout upwards

or this is a divergence and manufactured by the big players to sell high before the crash

the next 24 hours will be very interesting.

if GDX can take out last thursday's high around 18.91, then it will trigger a surge of buying and we 'should' see 20-21 area that would be another 10% higherfor yri/k and 20% for hgu, and I will be looking to start unloading all my position in anticipation of the two week drop that follows

[Khyron]

What's up with TCK.B - up 100%, debating selling...

[asp integra]

Originally posted by Khyron
What's up with TCK.B - up 100%, debating selling...

I have been watching Teck for quite a few years. Hard to say what will happen right now, but both .A and .B have been on a great run the last month or so. I wish I would have bought at the beginning of the year.

[dirtsniffer]

I just hope they go up so I can go work for them again ha

[RealJimmyJames]

Originally posted by RealJimmyJames
Guesses on 14 day outlook for oil and related stocks? I have some USD denominated oil stock I plan to liquidate in the next little while. Suspect tuesday will open strong, but after that . . . more fear? My waffling has been paying off so far. Still waffling.

[roopi]

Originally posted by Khyron
What's up with TCK.B - up 100%, debating selling...

- Small profit in last results was a surprise.
- Commodity price increase
- Costs decrease
- Strength of USD

Started buying this in December and was hoping to add each month but it started moving pretty quickly after Jan.

[SilverRex]

while gold hasnt broken out from the bullish flag and needs to close above 1228-1232 however stocks are pushing higher with yri breaking new highs today.

im shooting for gdx to hit 20-21 would be my ideal take profit area,

would really need gold to make a push this week otherwise I may have to abandon my position as there will be a cycle low coming up which could be significant heading into early March.

I am watching the 15m chart and clearly bears are defending the 1226 area and is the last stand from preventing it from triggering a breakout. if gold gets pushed back down, then it may delay the breakout and change the 3 point bullish flag pattern into a 5 point flag instead. a bearish case would be to break down below 1200 and open up the 1120-1140 area very quickly.

I am still cheering for the breakout to occur this week, if not it will be time sit on the side line and wait for another opporunity

[Manhattan]

Anyone care to share a good resource to learn about the base metals industry? I'm eyeing XBM as the industry recovers. But have very little knowledge of the industry.

[BavarianBeast]

Just listen to SilverRex, I'm up over 45% on YRI in less than 3 weeks. Lol.

[riander5]

Originally posted by roopi


- Small profit in last results was a surprise.
- Commodity price increase
- Costs decrease
- Strength of USD

Started buying this in December and was hoping to add each month but it started moving pretty quickly after Jan.

Fuck thats a ballsy trade. Catching the falling knife at its best. Congrats on the profit but id take em while you can... coal industry isnt a bright spot for growth these days, just look at how many coal plants are shutting down in the US this year or converting to NG

[Mack10]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Just listen to SilverRex, I'm up over 45% on YRI in less than 3 weeks. Lol.


^^ agreed. Although I'm not in any metals I do enjoy reading SilverRex 's morning commentary and watching it all unfold

[Khyron]

Originally posted by Mack10
^^ agreed. Although I'm not in any metals I do enjoy reading SilverRex 's morning commentary and watching it all unfold

I keep waiting for a good point to jumping back in. Soooooon.

[roopi]

Originally posted by riander5


Fuck thats a ballsy trade. Catching the falling knife at its best. Congrats on the profit but id take em while you can... coal industry isnt a bright spot for growth these days, just look at how many coal plants are shutting down in the US this year or converting to NG

I wouldn't call it ballsy at all. I've followed/traded this company since before the Fording purchase. They are more then a coal company. Directly linked to many commodities which has caused the pain and will be producing oil next year (with the majority of expenses paid for or cash on had to pay for). Plenty of cash and credit available and debt looks manageable to me.

Cyclical industry and the best time to buy is when they are hurting. I'm in for the long run on this one.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Just listen to SilverRex, I'm up over 45% on YRI in less than 3 weeks. Lol.

thanks for the vote of confidence, I have my wrong moments as well and just try to gauge the market from past experience and my own set of technical analysis. it is indeed fun to make some calls and watch the market unfold.

I'm glad that you guys are up in profit, it is much easier to maneuver and manage your portfolio when you have some gains. Makes a lot of decisions easier to execute.

regardless of the outcome of gold this week, the next pullback entry for me will be more medium-long term hold meaning I will have position that will sit for months/years and also a few position to day trade at a much reduced % to cut my risk.

because I have to prepare for the mentality that anything could go wrong and if there is a mass market panic and liquidity issue like 08, gold can suddenly crash 30% and I must have ammo aside to add

[SilverRex]

extremely huge volume just came thru 15ms ago on gdx. Is gold's breakout imminent? the next couple of hours will be interesting to watch

much of the rally of late I believe was happening during the Asian market so we will see if the breakout is to occur during this period.

[bball2]

Pretty glad that I held onto Barrick (ABX) the last few weeks, got in at 14 after it had already gone up 20% in a short time. Up another 30%

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
Pretty glad that I held onto Barrick (ABX) the last few weeks, got in at 14 after it had already gone up 20% in a short time. Up another 30%

im very surprised at how well ABX has performed, ever since it broke out of the multi month 11.00 resistance (abx.to) it never looked back and now poised to hit 20

abx.to is trying to make a new high near closing. possible gap up tomorrow?

[Jlude]

I'm a newb, but 50K on Penn West? I like to gamble. Been watching it and a few others for a while, almost pulled the trigger when it was around 70 cents.

[roopi]

Originally posted by Jlude
I'm a newb, but 50K on Penn West? I like to gamble. Been watching it and a few others for a while, almost pulled the trigger when it was around 70 cents.

I'd rather go to a baccarat table then invest in Pennwest.

[SilverRex]

well im very glad the patterns are unfolding as seen with the 3 point bullish flag breakout and both silver and gold are now moving higher, it even cleared the 1232 hurdle which imo isnt as big of a deal as breaking the down trendline that was near 1226 yesterday.

now there should be nothing holding gold back from retest 1260 and possibly overshooting above it.

while the next major resistance lies at 1307, price can turn around at any time especially if it can poke above 1260. But ideal scenario is to see gold make a false move above 1260 then crash. Simply because I am following the YEN and it dictates that there is a big sell off/correction coming after this week is over and the next leg up will not begin until we get into 2nd week of March.

So i will be looking to start unloading all my positions with gold's move up.

for the record gold is entering the final wave v of 1 and within this 5 waves we are in a wave .iii of v,

there is an up channel line currently capped at about 1286 which would give gold a break if it surges up and if this isnt the target then 1306 will be next. while these are my ideal target, nothing says it couldnt suddenly go parabolic and even move much higher than that simply the consolidation of late has been quite long and so the breakout could equally be strong. That is why we will count the wave structure for possible extensions and try to maximize the run

for oil, if you believe the 26 dollar are was 'the bottom' then you want to buy oil between 29-30. 30 is a good short term play since it filled the gap left by from month to month contract rolling over and also a 50% retrace from the recent run from 26-33. On top of this, its also a retest of the trendline break making it quite the support level in the short term. if I have fully exited all my gold position I may play off pwt/meg for a short play/bounce there.

looking at Meg, if feels like it needs to close below 3.46 for one final capitulation. if I see Meg fall to or under this level I may pick some up for longer term hold

[SilverRex]

all miners making new highs, feels great to be on the winning side...constantly

[riander5]

Too bad i was too afraid to pull trigger! congrads on the solid gains

[SilverRex]

im taking 1/3 of my position off the table to book profits. watching gdx closely as we should be hitting some pretty good resistance starting at 20 follow by 21

[bjstare]

Wow ECA today on earnings.

[riander5]

Originally posted by roopi
Bought ECA today at 52 week low ($4.35). Will not be holding this into Wednesday's earnings. Gain/Loss this is being sold by Tuesday close at the latest.

You hold?

[bball2]

Was hoping to get back into some oil stocks at the low prices right now but not seeing any signs of lowering production or increase in demand.

Will hold onto CXR, ABX, T, and WJA for now :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

very interesting that gold turn around without having to retest 1260 area. I still have two positions left and so if gold breaks below 1232 (a key support -im revising this level to 1226) I will unload it and if gold breaks below 1202 I will exit my last position as this would indicate a long awaited decline has begun. I will have to wait for a better entry.

update

im unloading 2/3 of my position. after second thought, the turn is about to happen and may have already happen. will still try to ride out my last position if gold still makes a last attempt towards 1260.

keeping a mental SL on 1226

will now wait for gold to retest the 50/200 daily ema near 1130-1140

[max_boost]

What a rebound today. If only I pulled the trigger early would have made a nice day trade.

On another note 3x in the past month it has hit 129XX but it can't break through 13k.

[SilverRex]

silver is looking extremely weak and the last two week has been moving in a declining channel with bottom targeting 14.8 over all it still looks bullish once it breaks out but in the short term if the YEN/GOLD correlation continues to unfold then gold will be about to break below 1200 and breaking below this will open a panic selling.

Any rally for the next few days in this market should be viewed as an opportunity to take profit and will look for re-entry when gold price is below 1180