Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bball2]

SUNE is up huge today; +30% already

Although that's one I probably wouldn't buy someone else's money with how it's performed lately.

[SilverRex]

despite gold is up alittle the mining sector remains weak. could be a sign that it's exhausted and needs to retrace

uptrend line supporting 31 could easily bounce from here.rather see oil (actually I picked up some PWT/MEG for a short play and will see if a bullish scenario unfolds while gold crash for the next couple of days)

looking at GLD, the movement this morning until now looks very corrective. could be a bear rally. my take is that the gold mining complex could crash further

[SilverRex]

well didnt realize oil would suddenly surge shortly after picking up some shares in the energy sectors. I guess it is true, the trend is your friend until it bends (im referring to the rising trendline that is giving oil support right at 31 today and 30.50 yesterday.

[Manhattan]

Why is Shaw getting no love? Seems like the biggest bargain out of all the communications companies (and the highest dividend). Is it cuz they don't do wireless? :dunno:

[revelations]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Why is Shaw getting no love? Seems like the biggest bargain out of all the communications companies (and the highest dividend). Is it cuz they don't do wireless? :dunno:

Shaw bought WIND mobile.

[SilverRex]

oil is pushing higher this morning, and after breaking a nearterm downtrendline, it has some momentum to keep going. while the first resistance is at 34.80, I want to imagine there is a lot of short covering and shorts getting trapped and could push break this top. if oil indeed made a bottom at 26, I would like to see oil go as high as 37-37.75, oil is playing out similarly to when gold broke out few weeks back by taking out the previous tops so let see how high she goes

nothing to report on metals other than being on the sideline and expecting a metal correction to buy back mining shares at a much lower price.

[SilverRex]

im taking some profit of the table with oil testing the 34.8 resistance

[BavarianBeast]

Wish I would of bought some TBE at $.06 when I was contemplating it.

[SilverRex]

silver remains extremely weak and if gold does correct significantly say down to 1140 area then silver may even make a new low.

while the cycle low should be ending around the end of the first week in March, I have to keep an open mind that gold could put in a very small correction and temporary break below 1191 only to regain back above 1200 and complete the fib retracement.

this could mean gdx will only fall another 10% or 20% on hgu. my wish is to see what appears to be a crash in the mining sector and the world start saying this rally was fake so that I can buy into extreme weakness and load up on a steeper discount.

either way I will see where the market is at in about 7-8 days

[SilverRex]

well gold's decline has accelerated and is now testing the upper trend line that has been holding price up for the past 2 weeks. while short term players may pick off current area for a bounce, I may sit out on it simply because if it breaks below this price, hell will break loose

I noticed kinross had lost 7% a day ago while the sector was mostly flat. it turns out two banks are buying 80+ million shares at 3.00 as well as a downgrade. No matter what this tells me is that the banks see long term hold on them.

[Mibz]

Somebody write a script that will scrape this thread for SilverRex posts and automatically do what he says.

[birdman86]

Originally posted by Mibz
Somebody write a script that will scrape this thread for SilverRex posts and automatically do what he says.

CFA was apparently a waste of money, shoulda done technical analysis :rofl: :rofl:

[riander5]

Up 110% on NKE calls since 2 weeks ago. Will sell soon, hope for a pullback before earnings

[Manhattan]

Anyone read Buffett's letter to shareholders? Two things stuck out for me:

- Hardly any mention of an energy recovery (it is a small part of his business)
- WW3 is almost a certainty rather than a mere probability

[SilverRex]

after a few weeks of profits I have exited all my positions and now will watch the market for a couple of days to evaluate. as I have said last week, while I am expecting a correction for gold and my desire is to buy back miners at a better price. However while silver has crashed down, gold still has not. As resilient as it appears I am hesitant to buy. Although if anyone remains bullish short term it did produced another trendline breakout today and looks like it wants to make another run towards 1260.

if a bullish scenario unfolds then I recommend exiting when gold hits between 1260-1306 area.

I am going to stick to my own call and wait this out. the fact that silver crashed down to the 14.70 area may potentially point to a new low (if gold does plunge according to schedule) it has been a while since I last traded silver on the forex exchange. If silver gets near or even makes a newer low I may want to put in a position for a longer term hold starting in the 14.20 area and will buy on every swing dips until it bounces.

the general EW community is all pointing to the stock market expecting one more leg down to complete the correction. then the feeling is that everything will go up together

[SilverRex]

if gold can dive back below 1226 I would say it has invalidated the short term bullish breakout and would add further technical weakness

for oil, upside towards 37 will continues to be on the table unless it breaks below the 200ema slightly below 32

[SilverRex]

picked up some hou for short term play this morning to see if oil can rally further with mental SL below 32. also will add MEG to my position if it can fill the gap near 4.20

[SilverRex]

lol someone or fund picked up 5m+ shares of MEG in the last few minutes before market closed today. MEG.to has never had this much volume let alone buying it since maybe what like 5 years ago?

whats the deal here? insider trading ? either way my position kicked in a 4.21 so at least im not the only one riding this up or down

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


:thumbsup:

Thanks dude.

Decided to buy some B2GOLD and also some Yamana. Didn't have any metals stock in my portfolio..

Just sold these today. Managed to make 38% and 47% respectively. Largest gains in my portfolio since '14. Woohoo. Lol.

[avishal26]

Originally posted by SilverRex
lol someone or fund picked up 5m+ shares of MEG in the last few minutes before market closed today. MEG.to has never had this much volume let alone buying it since maybe what like 5 years ago?

whats the deal here? insider trading ? either way my position kicked in a 4.21 so at least im not the only one riding this up or down

potential hostile takeover?

I'm hoping with a potential oil drop back to under $30 in the next 2 weeks, I can average down on MEG by getting in around $3.8

[troyl]

Originally posted by SilverRex
lol someone or fund picked up 5m+ shares of MEG in the last few minutes before market closed today. MEG.to has never had this much volume let alone buying it since maybe what like 5 years ago?

whats the deal here? insider trading ? either way my position kicked in a 4.21 so at least im not the only one riding this up or down

Big volume indeed. After close there were ~6.7 million worth of Block trades as well. Maybe houses moving positions around at month end? Or maybe a deal in the works, maybe a buyer for their stake in access.

[revelations]

Originally posted by SilverRex
the general EW community is all pointing to the stock market expecting one more leg down to complete the correction. then the feeling is that everything will go up together

Going up, based on Fundamentals (like the Fed starting QE4) or Technicals somehow ? (all major signs point to a protracted downtrend).

[BavarianBeast]

Twin buttes gone 6 cents to 17 cents in 10 days.

Wow weee

[SilverRex]

this is a key week indeed with the dollar gaining strength of late it has the possibility to push upward to the extreme. Hopefully this is what will cause gold to crash hence leading the miners into a healthy correction.

if dollar does continue to gain strength then i have to be careful playing oil. exited hou for a small profit as it tracks the price of oil. Meg I will hold on a little longer until I need the funds to be re-invested into metals sector once I see prices reach a good entry level beginning with gdx at 17 follow by 15

[Manhattan]

Originally posted by SilverRex
if dollar does continue to gain strength then i have to be careful playing oil.

Oil leads to our dollar's strengthening. Not the other way around.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Manhattan


Oil leads to our dollar's strengthening. Not the other way around.

even better if that is the case

[sabad66]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Twin buttes gone 6 cents to 17 cents in 10 days.

Wow weee
Tell me about it... i had an order in for 6.5c last week when it was trading at 7c and it wouldn't hit. Next day it starting shooting up. So pissed i missed out just cuz i was being a cheap ass for half a penny lol

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by sabad66

Tell me about it... i had an order in for 6.5c last week when it was trading at 7c and it wouldn't hit. Next day it starting shooting up. So pissed i missed out just cuz i was being a cheap ass for half a penny lol

That's too bad man. I didn't buy any but a coworker was looking for a risky play a couple weeks ago and I mentioned TBE, he got in at $.065. Needless to say, he thinks I'm a hero now haha.

[ercchry]

I need to see $0.40 on tbe :cry:

Lre vote should be done? Stock price is finally reflecting the deal

[BavarianBeast]

LRE does look like a decent buy. I ended up dumping a good chunk of my cash into Bellatrix, I think it's a bargain below $3..

[bjstare]

Right now I'm trying to decide whether I should hold POU over earnings or not. I'm expecting to see potentially big swings either way depending on whether or not they beat expectations.

They've seen a bunch of positive movement lately, so I was considering unloading and waiting for the next drop in oil to get back in. Now I can't decide. :nut:

[BavarianBeast]

Don't be a poosy and hold that shit :poosie:

:rofl:

[SilverRex]

would be nice if there is a take over announcement for MEG by IMO or SU :) if so they better do it while this is probably the only period I am holding some shares for a couple of days.

[SilverRex]

nothing new under the sun. im still waiting for gold to pull back below 1200 and added hou this morning as I feel oil has a chance to retest 37. support now rose to just under 33. will continue to hold MEG as long as support holds and see how high it can run

[SilverRex]

MEG coming up a short term resistance near 4.90, selling half of my position

[asp integra]

Nice gain by TCK today.

[SilverRex]

sold all my Meg today. as long as oil continues to look bullish short term will buy back Meg on dips. I could regret this chart looks like it is poise to retest 6.00 and so oil needs to breakout and close above 34.80 for this to happen imo

still a 16% gain after 2 days, not shabby. not going to complain as my main focus is to go long on precious metals

there is currently an up trend channel pointing to about 5.40-5.50

Not going to chase this thing but if Meg consolidates early tomorrow between 4.7-4.9 I may re-open a small position to see if this channel plays out for another 10% higher

[riander5]

Originally posted by asp integra
Nice gain by TCK today.

lol what is up with this stock? Was watching it when you mentioned it before figured i missed the boat then

[SilverRex]

well gold has finally begin to breakout from the triangle consolidation pattern targeting between 1260-1307. or will it produce a fail breakout only to sell off significantly like silver did over a week ago.

Either way the swings may be violent, I am still waiting on the side lines for cheaper mining shares so will see how the price moves

while I have exited Meg (it popped further up today) the higher it goes the riskier it becomes. I am still holding hou for a chance to see 37 oil unless 33.5 area support gets taken out then will have to revise my take on this sectors

[ickyflex]

Bought MEG on your analysis yesterday haha.. looking good!

Bought BTE in the low 2's as well.

Rallly Rally

[SilverRex]

is it me or is everything going up together mirroring the 2009-2011.

inflation on high gear

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by ickyflex
Bought MEG on your analysis yesterday haha.. looking good!

Bought BTE in the low 2's as well.

Rallly Rally

for Meg, 6.00 area is a big resistance. you may want to take some profit off the table as it can easily consolidate in this area before shooting any higher.

opened up a small position in k.to for short play here to see if I can catch some momentum

[BavarianBeast]

meg will be $6.50 by eod. $6 will blow by no prob

[bjstare]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Don't be a poosy and hold that shit :poosie:

:rofl:

I've decided to hold over earnings, based on your analysis.

:rofl:

[SilverRex]

im done micromanaging my portfolio today. will see how the payroll numbers affect the market tomorrow. imo the news should turn certain markets around, my bet is on gold.

I am still believing a big shake out in gold is coming, although it hasnt happened 'yet' it doesnt meant it wont. My own feeling is that the mining sectors were very reluctant lately, even as gold is about to retest it's previous high at 1263, certain stocks like abx and k didnt even come close to doing the same. which means, equities in this sectors is dying for a correction. Feels like the big money is sitting on the sideline while the average investor will be caught holding the bag.

my schedule shows strength in gold beginning in the middle of next week which means it still has plenty of time to crash.

[SilverRex]

well gold finally poked above 1260 and produced a higher high. what I have been expecting 10 days ago, a bit late but still nice to see this happens. Now we will see just how powerful this breakout is,

so far abx and k still has yet to make a new high despite the breakout which would be concerning if anyone is still holding mining shares.



:nut:

[troyl]

Might get a sale on MEG tomorrow http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/meg-energy-reports-incident-at-christina-lake-sulphur-plant-tsx-meg-2102881.htm

[bball2]

Another strong opening for gold. SUNE is still a gong show, was up 25%+ on good news at opening, and now slipping back down

[SilverRex]

oil after a few days of consolidating in the 34-35 area, it has now produced what looks like a rising wedge pattern on the 1 hour chart. this could a sign it may not have the ability to breakout to the upside as this pattern usually is bearish.

if oil can close above 35.5 then a breakout will be ensured or a close below 34.20 then a breakdown will begin

[digi355]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil after a few days of consolidating in the 34-35 area, it has now produced what looks like a rising wedge pattern on the 1 hour chart. this could a sign it may not have the ability to breakout to the upside as this pattern usually is bearish.

You hanging on to HOU?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by digi355


You hanging on to HOU?

still holding my hou.

like I said unless it breaks down (support is 34.20) then I will continue to hold until it at least hits 37+

and so far breakout appears to be on the upside

and wow Meg.to is seriously moving, broke away from the 6.00 resistance which previously rejected it three times, breaking above this is quite bullish imo, this opens up the next area up to 7-7.33

[bball2]

Looks like they have resumed operations at the Christina Lake plant;

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2016/03/04/meg-energy-resumes-operations-at-christina-lake

[riander5]

Really wishing I had rolled the dice on BTE...

CKE, SGY, and CPG have still had decent returns over the past two weeks.

But doubling / tripling up would have been even nicer

:(

[riander5]

oh or SDRL lol

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by riander5
Really wishing I had rolled the dice on BTE...

CKE, SGY, and CPG have still had decent returns over the past two weeks.

But doubling / tripling up would have been even nicer

:(

I think you might be able to still get on some huge upside with Bellatrix.

..Hopefully :D

[riander5]

We have missed another 45% in gains since my last post in SDRL

WHo is gonna roll the dice??!!?!

[BavarianBeast]

Haha, fuck I was looking at SeaDrill since you posted. I was so close to pulling the trigger and said fuck it, it will probably correct back down.. HOLY FUCK!!!

[bball2]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Haha, fuck I was looking at SeaDrill since you posted. I was so close to pulling the trigger and that said fuck it, it will probably correct back down.. HOLY FUCK!!!

WOw I rode that from 3.85 to 4.50 and now it's approaching 6 :eek:

[riander5]

How much did you put in? I hope it was everything + the kitchen sink!!!

Im totally tied up and didnt want to trade anything or i would have tossed 2 grand in

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5
How much did you put in? I hope it was everything + the kitchen sink!!!

Im totally tied up and didnt want to trade anything or i would have tossed 2 grand in

Not much, just 200 shares worth :-P

[riander5]

Gains are Gains!

Go buy yourself a pair of kobes !!

[Marsh]

Energy service stocks are taking off today...no idea why

[SilverRex]

well it has been quite the week. normally I get surprised to the downside (meaning holding the bag or perhaps seeing red all over my portfolio but this week has been nothing but green and my only regret was not holding on to certain stocks longer.

I have exited my main Meg positions too early, but have since bought back a small position to see if it has any more legs to close in on 7.00, as long as oil remains bullish (above 35.5) I'll keep this target in play.

as for gold, i've learned another lesson. I should have kept all my miners and simply if I wanted to day trade this sector to open up additional positions. I have completely underestimated the rally.

and now can only hope that after gold breaching above 1263 (currently a hidden pivot at 1273) is stopping it) would take a much needed breather. the next FOMC meeting next week March 15-16 will be another key turning point. I am trying to predict (I dont have a crystal ball) while it has been a great run this year, I cant be right all the time) that gold needs to correct from now until the rate announcement.

Hopefully I can buy back on my longer term mining shares in various companies.

based on projection and how gold has consolidated, it is only a matter of time until it will reload, recharge and push above 1307. the 200 dollar run off the low in December, is pointing to another 200 dollar run that will most likely see gold retest the 1400 area.

buckle your seat-belts, this sector is just getting started.

[riander5]

SDRL 164% now :nut:

[Cos]

.

[bball2]

Originally posted by riander5
SDRL 164% now :nut:

Haha should've shorted it, it's falling back down now

[ExtraSlow]

Fuck yeah, sdrl was in my stock contest picks! Not in my real portfolio though. . . .

[BavarianBeast]

Golden stars for you!

I think ARIA might be prepping for an FDA release, could potentially send the stock soaring.

[bspot]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Golden stars for you!

I think ARIA might be prepping for an FDA release, could potentially send the stock soaring.

I'm still holding, because the last spike on the buyout offer was the day my daughter was born and I missed cashing out. It wasn't that much, so I decided to hold and see what happens. It has been largely ugly so far, but looking up again. Maybe I'll get lucky.

[SilverRex]

in case anyone did not noticed, there was an extreme volume being bought on friday on DUST, it's even more extreme then what we saw when MEG had a similar event a week ago. Big money is pouring into gold/silver mining shorts. a prelude for this weeks direction.

While it is plain obvious now gold is about to correct or have started. The question is for how much and for how long.

the near term support imo would be a backtest of the consolidation breakout near or at 1243 this is also the 200 EMA on the 1hr chart. For bears, you can short gold into this area. this area may also be a good first level entry to go long, However because of the insane volume on dust, and how the miners have not corrected more than 10% of late. I may want to stay on the sidelines until I see the miner give back at least 20%.

oil remains bullish targeting 37 area however there is a chance it can backtest the previous resistance at 34.8 as it has now became support. I like this area for a good rally since the up trend channel is slightly under it. so use your own strategy, sell and hold for a higher move and buy back low if it does backtest.

on the flip side if oil breaks down below 34, it will immediately turn oil to short term bearish and begin a larger degree correction.

update. exited my MEg position as it is close enough to 7.00

[birdman86]

wtf is going on with CFW these days? 24% on Friday, 21% already today, high volume on both days and no news. Layoffs/CFO were announced midweek last week so the Friday movement was either a day or two late or there's something else going on?

[quick_scar]

Originally posted by birdman86
wtf is going on with CFW these days? 24% on Friday, 21% already today, high volume on both days and no news. Layoffs/CFO were announced midweek last week so the Friday movement was either a day or two late or there's something else going on?

Optimism in the industry.

[Matty_10]

Now this is what I like to come back to from holidays. I've bet the farm on TBE and CRJ got a buyout.

[SilverRex]

oil has tested the 37.75 resistance and looks like it has more strength to pass higher.

current trend channel pointing to a short term top just under 39.

The longer we stay above 30.00, the longer it is looking like our 3 year cycle low on oil may be over.

[SilverRex]

looks like oil/stocks just had to correct at some point.

up trend channel intact, I think oil remains bullish and pull back could be a good entry. the key support with both up channel line, 200EMA on 1 hour as well as the previous breakout 34.8 is now the critical area to watch. as long as it doesnt crash, still looking like oil could test 39-40 area this month

will buy back Meg at the 6 dollar level to see if it can resume it's momentum, 5.94 is a 38% retracement from it's 4.18-7.03 move as well as a 50 day moving average.

let see if this could provide a good short term support.

not sure exactly whats the deal with gold unless it really wants to kiss 1307 now. either way price is to high to buy and too risky to short. I will continue to wait on the side line until I see miners correct at least 20%

[el_fefes]

Anyone picking up Crescent Point before tomorrow's earnings report?

[bball2]

@SilverRex, same, just opened a small position on MEG @ 5.7, big drop today

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Anyone picking up Crescent Point before tomorrow's earnings report?

I have been buying CPG lately.

[cloud7]

Originally posted by SilverRex
looks like oil/stocks just had to correct at some point.

up trend channel intact, I think oil remains bullish and pull back could be a good entry. the key support with both up channel line, 200EMA on 1 hour as well as the previous breakout 34.8 is now the critical area to watch. as long as it doesnt crash, still looking like oil could test 39-40 area this month


Exactly. Many believe that this rally in oil will be short-lived and will drop back below $30. Is what we are seeing today a start to a larger pull back? Time will tell.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cloud7


Exactly. Many believe that this rally in oil will be short-lived and will drop back below $30. Is what we are seeing today a start to a larger pull back? Time will tell.

anything is possible but I am a bit more optimistic and to trade like oil has already struck its 3 year cycle low at 26 dollars. hence, the current move up is a wave 3. once this is completed (or may have completed) we get a consolidation then another move higher.

oil remains bullish above 35 and i would buy back on any type of correction at the 38%-50% fib levels

[SilverRex]

for those that dont do any technical analysis, this is sort of what I am thinking oil is at and is entirely possible oil still has not completed wave iii, either way if it pulls back to the 35-36 area, it would be a good pickup

http://i.imgur.com/eXDo2sJ.png

[SilverRex]

well oil has reversed today. will see if this means it is still trying to completed sub wave iii or a larger degree wave iv pointing down to 35 would begin. (over all as long as 35 holds, continue to expect oil is trying to retest 39-40 area)

as for gold, I think the reason for the recent struggle and uncertain price direction is the result of big money moving into shorts and all the late investors are still jumping on board thinking it will head higher.

it has started the day on the negative note by breaking a short term up trend line under 1255 and the 1 hour 200 EMA is holding it up.
gold needs to quickly recapture above 1261 if it wishes to regain upside momentum.

Next support if it shall continue to sell off would be near the 1240 area which imo would create the last buying opportunity (if gold is to test 1307 in the next couple of days) keep in mind the previous triangle consolidation channel has now converged to a critical 1232 area. which means if gold breaks below this, it would create a big sell off panic.

im actually rooting for this to happen because unless gold suddenly tanks 100+ dollars, it will be hard for the miners to correct more than 20%. A quick desirable first entry of the 38% fib level would be 3.5-3.6 for yri and k and about low 15s for Abx

[Type_S1]

Originally posted by SilverRex
for those that dont do any technical analysis, this is sort of what I am thinking oil is at and is entirely possible oil still has not completed wave iii, either way if it pulls back to the 35-36 area, it would be a good pickup

http://i.imgur.com/eXDo2sJ.png

Things are likely going lower then $35. There is no fundamentals supportong this rally other then a poitibe sentimant for refineries Q3 demands. Technical tracking does have value but oil is a different beast right now and understanding the macro environment is much more important then any chart is going to tell you.

Prediction: oil drops down to the 20's through Q2 then rallies to end the year at 50 as analysts are severely underestimating the impacts of natural declines without replacement this year and drastically overstating the "wells sitting completed and waiting to turn on all through the US" which for the most part is BS.

[Manhattan]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Anyone picking up Crescent Point before tomorrow's earnings report?

Just announced 70% dividend cut. Surprised there hasn't been a bigger sell off.

[ExtraSlow]

With the smaller and less liquid names, dividend cuts have been treated very favorably by the market. CPG has been such a golden goose though, I suspect some investors were caught off guard that it could happen to them as well. In terms of the health of the business, it's hard to see any way that the dividend cut was anything but positive.

[SilverRex]

can you imagine if the US and north korean war heats up what it could do to oil? you can throw away any technical analysis or fundamentals

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-nuclear-kim-idUSKCN0WA2QM

[roopi]

Originally posted by Manhattan


Just announced 70% dividend cut. Surprised there hasn't been a bigger sell off.

Dividend cuts have already been priced into this sector.

[SilverRex]

come on gold... crash already ;)

[Feruk]

LRE is trading at 0.445. Offer on the table for $0.52 already shareholder approved and sale approved by Alberta court. I realize because the buyer is Chinese, the feds still have to approve, but there's an almost 17% spread here... Any idea why? It can't be lack of federal approval alone.

[roopi]

Originally posted by Feruk
LRE is trading at 0.445. Offer on the table for $0.52 already shareholder approved and sale approved by Alberta court. I realize because the buyer is Chinese, the feds still have to approve, but there's an almost 17% spread here... Any idea why? It can't be lack of federal approval alone.

Like you said the risk of approval. Upside potential 17 percent. Downside potential back to $0.16 (I don't want to calculate the percentage loss).

You holding?

[max_boost]

Gains are a beautiful thing. feels so good.
Originally posted by riander5
Gains are Gains!

Go buy yourself a pair of kobes !!

[SilverRex]

after ECB announced their 80 billion a month stimulus, gold is starting to react. while gold initially sank, it has been recovering immediately after testing the all important trendline from the previous triangle consolidation.

as you can see if gold holds and moves above its 50 EMA, I suspect it will want to make a final run towards 1307, but if it breaks below 1232 then it would force many technical traders to sell their position and sell off could be dramatic.

for my own personal bias, I want gold to collapse so that miners can offer a good discount.

http://i.imgur.com/07SpLbP.png

[SilverRex]

as for oil the last 2 dollar correction looks like it was a sub wave iv correction (see circles) which I think means that we are still trying to complete a larger degree wave III. while expectation is to see oil finally crack 38.5 targeting the upper trend channel currently at 40.23

once this sub wave v completes, I expect oil to begin a correction/consolidation of 4-5 dollars similar the drop in wave I to II. underlying support to keep oil bullish has risen to about 36

if oil is unable to break above 38.5 today and started heading back down, then an alt count would mean the larger correction IV back down to 36 support will be in play. Will continue to expect oil to tread higher unless it convincingly closes below 36

http://i.imgur.com/sTgwk1U.png

[SilverRex]

bought a small position in HGU to see if it does have legs towards 1307

also added to my Meg position. though very small but I can cost average at will

[riander5]

Originally posted by Type_S1


Things are likely going lower then $35. There is no fundamentals supportong this rally other then a poitibe sentimant for refineries Q3 demands. Technical tracking does have value but oil is a different beast right now and understanding the macro environment is much more important then any chart is going to tell you.

Prediction: oil drops down to the 20's through Q2 then rallies to end the year at 50 as analysts are severely underestimating the impacts of natural declines without replacement this year and drastically overstating the "wells sitting completed and waiting to turn on all through the US" which for the most part is BS.

Declines have already been hitting the US oil production super hard. Only thing propping up storage numbers is record US oil imports.

Maybe this pricing is factoring that in.... assuming a 'perfect' market has already priced all available knowledge in.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25292

That chart is nearly 3 months behind... I imagine we have dropped off even more so since then... rigs are also lower than 2009 levels.

[SilverRex]

nothing to comment today either then oil looking at 40, somehow this may be a very significant resistance on first test.

gold is moving along, looking at it for test towards 1307 then I will be exiting all my positions

[riander5]

Natural gas has the legs technically to go up a bit

Daily chart MACD crossed over... I should have bought a day ago when it first did actually

Might initiate a UGAZ position for 3-5 days with a SL corresponding to around 1.74-1.75 NYMEX gas

[SilverRex]

sold half of my Meg position. will sell the rest if it can hit 6.49+

for gold while it looks short term bullish but on the medium term we could be looking at a big correction on the horizon as gold now appears to be developing some sort of rising wedge pattern.

of course based on the previous triangle the 70 dollar could be a projection for gold to hit 1307. I will still target this area unless the rising line breaks then sell off will begin immediately

http://i.imgur.com/Hq5Bgim.png

[SilverRex]

one thing I have been noticing of late is that the miners no longer move as great as gold does and is beginning to diverge. What this means is that even if gold makes another new high, the miners will only rise a bit but if gold drops the miners will get hit twice as hard.

I suggest limit your exposure to the miners until we see a significant pull back before scaling back in and or building up your position for the next rally.

exited my last Meg position as I got my 6.49 target. not holding anything over the weekend. May exit my miners as well

[el_fefes]

SilverRex, what do you think of this analysis?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/buy-gold-play-for-a-massive-rally-technician.html