Official Short-term Investments Thread

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
SilverRex, what do you think of this analysis?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/buy-gold-play-for-a-massive-rally-technician.html

I dont disagree with it and if gold does move like in the late 70s without pulsing much then certainly it can happen in the right circumstance. However trying to be realistic here, I do not believe gold is in a parabolic panic buying state yet. Majority of investor usually catch the last train after significant moves. Therefore just like any market, it will correct at some point, with commercials COT piling up on the short side of late, it looks like the big money is ready to tear gold down.

Buying gold at a discount is as good as riding it up.

[bball2]

@SilverRex, nice sell of Meg at 6.49, pretty close to the peak today :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
@SilverRex, nice sell of Meg at 6.49, pretty close to the peak today :thumbsup:

yeah lucked out on that one considering I bought at 5.99 and 5.52 I figure I have to be happy to close out the week on the positive. I hate holding a position over the weekend as I cant stop thinking about it.

same with gold, I exited all my miners shortly after lunch. looking like another good decision. Anyways even if gold regains strength next week and makes yet another high I now have no desire to trade until I see this sector correct >20%

[digi355]

Originally posted by SilverRex


yeah lucked out on that one considering I bought at 5.99 and 5.52 I figure I have to be happy to close out the week on the positive. I hate holding a position over the weekend as I cant stop thinking about it.

same with gold, I exited all my miners shortly after lunch. looking like another good decision. Anyways even if gold regains strength next week and makes yet another high I now have no desire to trade until I see this sector correct >20%

I've been following your trades from the sidelines for the last few weeks. Looks like you've had a pretty sensational run...

Question for you though - if your analysis is showing a 20% gold correction, or at least that's what you're waiting for, why not buy something like HBD?

[birdman86]

Slightly relevant to the recent posts, if anyone's interested in this technical/day/swing trading stuff I can't recommend enough reading 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator'. Just a good read altogether but does a really good job at talking about market psychology, strategy, biases in practice (etc).

It's a biography not a textbook which is a breath of fresh air compared to most finance reads :thumbsup:

[riander5]

Originally posted by digi355


I've been following your trades from the sidelines for the last few weeks. Looks like you've had a pretty sensational run...

Question for you though - if your analysis is showing a 20% gold correction, or at least that's what you're waiting for, why not buy something like HBD?

I havent done any of his trades, but I agree he is on a tear and seems to be fully transparent in what trades he makes which is appreciated in here!

[JudasJimmy]

Bought both of these at 10am. march 3. Sucks I didn't buy more. I'll probable sell tomorrow.

http://www.ws6.ca/beyond/stock01.jpg

Just an update. I sold the next day, over night the stock was down as fast as it was up. Ended up with $2700 USD profit. Day trading is hit/miss. I'd like to be able to afford 100k investing instead of just 10k.

To answer riander5 question from other thread. I track my portfolio on Google. Even thought I don't use it to trade. I search for stock in the energy sector that has lost the most in the last year. Sort by % loss. watch the ones that might jump up.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by digi355


I've been following your trades from the sidelines for the last few weeks. Looks like you've had a pretty sensational run...

Question for you though - if your analysis is showing a 20% gold correction, or at least that's what you're waiting for, why not buy something like HBD?

I have been burn in the past trying to swing trade both directions. Going short on a market is different than going long. One's timing must be impeccable to achieve this and in this baby bull gold market, it moves up more than it will move down and so going against the trend usually results in either cutting into my profits or I actually lose money on the long haul.

after all, there is no way I can consistently nail the the right entry price. by waiting and only going along the up trend it gives me the flexibility to be able to cost average and scale in my position because I know it will eventually head back in the same direction and that is up. If I feel a market is topping or has topped why not move into another sector kinda the reason why at one point I exited miners and went into oil

[SilverRex]

with the Fed rate news this week, prepare for the market to move.

for gold, looking bearish this morning which is what I want, but until it can break or close below 1239, it still has a possibility to make another run towards 1307. (bought hgu for a short play and will exit if gold drops below 1240)

for oil, it just made into the 39-40 target and has falling down near it's up trend line near 37. This would be a good area for a bounce with a tight stop under 36.50, I would imagine if it closes below 36.50 it would induce a larger correction down to the 34 area. (bought some hou to see if it in facts rallies off 37 area. will exit if it drops below 36.50)

I was lucky enough to exited Meg last week and may be interested in jumping back in if it can fill the gap left last week at around 5.67-5.75 considering it does appear Meg only runs up when oil moves upward.

Overall this is my current view on the market, technically charts are bearish and everyone is calling it to fall to new lows, the EQ community are calling for one final drop. but lately I have been studying cycles and became more of a believer in cycles rather than price or even EW counts.

In that there is a 85% probability that the 7 year cycle low may have ended back in mid-Jan, and as such just when everyone is calling the market to crash I am incline to think the opposite will occur, with negative interest rate all around the world, money will flow away from bonds and into all asset class in the coming years and that includes the stock market.

One has to take a stand and if this is how it will play out, the one sector I am vastly interested in is also the biotech sector. IBB or XBI. If the market does run away and make new highs and perhaps even run into a bubble phase, then this sector will lead dramatically. There has been increase volume in this sector this year. I am also watching LABU which is a 3x ETF on this sector, I am hoping I can pick up a position under 6.00, and if this sectors bottoms out like it did with the miners, I will take the gains and move it into IBB/XBI for a longer term hold.

[ickyflex]

MS thinks this is Q2 2015 all over again for oil. What are your thoughts on that analysis?

[bball2]

Huge day for GWPH - looks like their phase 3 trials showed a significant reduction in seizures compared to the placebo for people suffering from Dravet syndrome

[SilverRex]

well exited my hgu due to gold becoming increasingly bearish this week. Will see how the fed rate change the market.

as for oil, while I am still holding hou, I need oil to recapture above 36.75 to regain upside momentum or it can fall towards 34

picked up a small position in LABU,

I am surprised how the miners are doing despite gold making lower lows this week. I have re-entered hgu with stops below today's low to see if there is any chance it can reverse the bearish tone. Obviously gold needs to get back above 1242 and especially 1250 to get bullish again.

[Vanish3d]

I'm getting killed with VRX....
Considering selling at a loss but hate selling at the bottom

[JudasJimmy]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I'm getting killed with VRX....
Considering selling at a loss but hate selling at the bottom
Oh thank god. I thought I was the only looser here. I hate VRX

[riander5]

Bought calls on XPO today while they were down ~3% - looking to hold for 1-2 days

aug expiry 29 strike

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
well exited my hgu due to gold becoming increasingly bearish this week. Will see how the fed rate change the market.

as for oil, while I am still holding hou, I need oil to recapture above 36.75 to regain upside momentum or it can fall towards 34

picked up a small position in LABU,

I am surprised how the miners are doing despite gold making lower lows this week. I have re-entered hgu with stops below today's low to see if there is any chance it can reverse the bearish tone. Obviously gold needs to get back above 1242 and especially 1250 to get bullish again.

LABU is a bull stock in a bear market (for pharma) which is just what you said you wouldnt try shorting gold in a mini bull market

you animal

[bball2]

Originally posted by JudasJimmy

Oh thank god. I thought I was the only looser here. I hate VRX
Reminds me of a quote someone once said, if you wouldn't buy more of the stock right now then get rid of it from your portfolio regardless of the loss. It's not worth holding on to junk.

[el_fefes]

Originally posted by riander5
Bought calls on XPO today while they were down ~3% - looking to hold for 1-2 days

aug expiry 29 strike

Do you do options frequently? How's the learning curve on that? Success rate?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5


LABU is a bull stock in a bear market (for pharma) which is just what you said you wouldnt try shorting gold in a mini bull market

you animal

well I am seeing the biotech sector like the miners except miners bottomed out first. Biotech needs the general stock market to break out of the bear market and into a new bull market then it will surge.

be reminded LABU is a 3x etf, so not for the faint of heart. That is why I am only investing no more than 10% of my portfolio in this

I am in the camp where negative interest rate will fuel all money to go into asset and equities thus producing a bubble phase.

technically we are still in bear market but we are getting close to a breakout on some major indexes.

[SilverRex]

still holding hou, my stop didnt trigger so I am still good. looking at the chart technically oil is not out of the woods until it breakout above 36.75.

So far I am calling 39 as a completion to wave iii and the current correction matches wave i-ii, obviously the bearish case is that oil cannot break above 37 and the next support would be down to the 34-35 area. In which case if I am stopped out I will re-enter

http://i.imgur.com/BwEI39u.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by el_fefes


Do you do options frequently? How's the learning curve on that? Success rate?

Somewhat frequently 2-6 times a month maybe??

Learning curve is pretty quick, but i got lucky when i first started and did pretty well.. i started doing it last august right after the s&p crashed so good / lucky timing

I made a mistake I had XPO may options

Bought 15 contracts @ 2.00, sold 15 @ 2.15 just before market close.

Stock will probably go up more tomorrow but i was at the gym until 2 and didnt have time to asses the chart!

[JudasJimmy]

I was able to peg another good one (On an overall shitty stock day)

Bought this at 10am, I would have sold at the end of the day, but I was busy. I'll sell tomorrow morning. Hopefully it doesn't go down.


http://www.ws6.ca/beyond/cco.jpg

[SilverRex]

so far both my hgu and hou are up and I have moved my stops to zero. will just see how today plays out.

oil has broken above 36.75 which is now bullish and gold remains weak unless it can close above 1232 or further downside ahead

[bball2]

I don't think technical analysis works very well on penny stocks... :-P

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/4alvsx/just_throwing_it_out_there_but_skln_might_blow_up/

Down 17% this morning.

[oogaboogie]

DIRTT to Release 2015 Q4 and Year-End Results on March 16, 2016

Hopefully they talk about their pilot project with Best Buy... and surpass expectations!

[SilverRex]

nice so the fed announcement is helping across all sectors.

[bball2]

Originally posted by SilverRex
so far both my hgu and hou are up and I have moved my stops to zero. will just see how today plays out.

oil has broken above 36.75 which is now bullish and gold remains weak unless it can close above 1232 or further downside ahead
Broke past 38 pretty quick too :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

DOW is at it critical area, if it breaks above the 17425 area convincingly it could signal a bullish reversal that a higher high may be on the horizon. This would bold very well for the biotech sector considering it is in a bear market (like the miners) for quite a while.

looks like buying oil at 36 dollar was the right call. now it is moving up in it's final wave v of iii of 1.

gold in fact as I suspected when it was refusing to give out its floor hovering around 1232 a day ago acted strange and it was not selling off as it should considering how bearish it looked at the time. Now that it has taken out both 1242 and 1250 respectively, it has all the momentum in the world to make a new high and perhaps finally test the coveted 1307 resistance.

EW count on the miners is suggesting we have one more leg up and this may be it folks. Once it tops out, I suspect the next cycle low to get into the sector is in May. This thrust may create a top that will trap late comers so caution holding anything too long

both k and yri broke a significant trendline on big volume. looks like this sector should be strong for a couple of days

[bball2]

5% jump on ABX in the past hour

[Cos]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Cos
Holy hell almost $39, the chart on bloomberg looks like Mont Blanc

if this indeed a wave v it should break above 39 as a minimum. once this completes I expect a bit of a steeper correction >4 dollars

abx is very close to producing a new 52 week high

[BavarianBeast]

DIRTT earnings out at the bell.

I'm interested to see what they report.

[SilverRex]

i am holding onto HGU until I see gdx hit at least 22

http://i.imgur.com/Nf3FbwU.png

[Cos]

.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
DIRTT earnings out at the bell.

I'm interested to see what they report.

You found anything? I've looked around a bit and I can't see any info.

[BavarianBeast]

Nothing. I'm expecting solid results though.

I've been buying a fair amount in the $5.50-$6 range..

[bjstare]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Nothing. I'm expecting solid results though.

I've been buying a fair amount in the $5.50-$6 range..

I'm not expecting them to be too stellar this time. Still think they could be affected by the slowdown as a result of the oil fallout (I know they're well diversified outside of that sector, but still afraid haha).

[BavarianBeast]

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release/dirtt-announces-record-quarterly-annual-revenue-with-2015-q4-year-end-results-tsx-drt-2106708.htm

:clap:

[oogaboogie]

w00t! :clap:
A solid year for DIRTT... So happy I kept buying into this!

Also, these guys are using DIRTT solutions for Best Buy stores.
http://verto360.com/case-study/best-buy/

This was a pilot project but it reads like it was a success:
"The installations were completed in phases and after-hours, resulting in an expedited construction schedule and zero downtime for the Best Buy stores."

[SilverRex]

did oil shot up to 40.75? because if it is that is pretty significant. breaking above 40 would technically mean our 3 year cycle low has ended at 26

[Cos]

.

[bjstare]

DRT was a nice surprise. I didn't bother to read news after I left work last night. :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

once oil hits about 40 in the front month contract I will exit my hou and watch for a few days to see how it goes, it looks like it is about to finish its 5 waves on the 1 hr chart. I suspect 40 will be a very significant level for the coming weeks so perhaps the opportunity here would be a swing trade as oil consolidates before breaking and turning 40 into support.

Ideal scenario would be to see oil pull back for a fib correction which will be all buying opportunities.

with the next month contract (currently trading above 40) rolls over, I expect price will either move sideways or pull back.

gold looks like it has found a price level to consolidate. I expect at least one more thrust higher, hopefully this will mean gdx another 5% then I will lock in my gains.

added another position in labu to cost average down my position to under 6.00

the biotech sector sell off recently reminds me when I was cost averaging down on the miners, only to see it exploded upwards.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
once oil hits about 40 in the front month contract I will exit my hou and watch for a few days to see how it goes, it looks like it is about to finish its 5 waves on the 1 hr chart. I suspect 40 will be a very significant level for the coming weeks so perhaps the opportunity here would be a swing trade as oil consolidates before breaking and turning 40 into support.

Ideal scenario would be to see oil pull back for a fib correction which will be all buying opportunities.

with the next month contract (currently trading above 40) rolls over, I expect price will either move sideways or pull back.

gold looks like it has found a price level to consolidate. I expect at least one more thrust higher, hopefully this will mean gdx another 5% then I will lock in my gains.

added another position in labu to cost average down my position to under 6.00

the biotech sector sell off recently reminds me when I was cost averaging down on the miners, only to see it exploded upwards.

I've traded LABU a couple times, but only held it for 1 week at the most. Similarly with UWTI, only held for 3 weeks, inlcuding one avg down purchase.

How long do you usually end up holding these 3x funds for?

[ExtraSlow]

I'm buying lottomax tickets, that's pretty short term. Don't plan on holding past the weekend.

[Cos]

.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair


I've traded LABU a couple times, but only held it for 1 week at the most. Similarly with UWTI, only held for 3 weeks, inlcuding one avg down purchase.

How long do you usually end up holding these 3x funds for?

well labu is really a risk/reward play and I dont plan on holding it for ever, my idea is to (hopefully) catch a bottom and if it does rise sharply will sell and put the money into an unleveraged fund like ibb or xbi.

just sold my hou (13.8% gain), I think is close enough to 40.00 besides I do not like holding onto too many open positions, so i am locking in my profits for oil.

sold my hgu also (17% gain), while i still expect there should be some more upside, it feels like momentum is unwinding, locking in my gains now and may buy back with a smaller position if gold gets down near 1250

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex


well labu is really a risk/reward play and I dont plan on holding it for ever, my idea is to (hopefully) catch a bottom and if it does rise sharply will sell and put the money into an unleveraged fund like ibb or xbi.

just sold my hou, I think is close enough to 40.00 besides I do not like holding onto too many open positions, so i am locking in my profits for oil

That makes sense. I'm looking for an entry point into XBI as well, it did well for me the last time it ran up.

[Rarasaurus]

Dirrt seems undervalued at these levels. Do you guys plan to hold till it gets back over 7.5?

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Rarasaurus
Dirrt seems undervalued at these levels. Do you guys plan to hold till it gets back over 7.5?

Well, considering it's been above that in the last few months, yes absolutely. Not sure how long I'll hold it, but definitely through 7.5

[BavarianBeast]

DIRTT is worth $15 to me.

I'll sell when it gets there.

Not to be greedy, but honestly a little disappointed in the 10%~ spike. I truly thought they could of pushed 20-30% today with those earnings in this market. Oh well. Upgrades will come, it'll keep going up.

[riander5]

Originally posted by riander5
Bought calls on XPO today while they were down ~3% - looking to hold for 1-2 days

aug expiry 29 strike

Bids now at 4.4 $ for this strike. When I posted my buy the other day got in for 2.00. Anyone make a quick ~120% or were you too busy reading silverexs novels?

No offence to SR - I read and appreciate all your posts :thumbsup:

[Rarasaurus]

I agree I thought DIRTT would have jumped more than 10%. Perhaps similar to last year end and we will see steady gains well into April. Good volume at least.

[birdman86]

And there's $40..what direction will it go!!

[SilverRex]

huge recovery on the biotech sector, hope it close green to put out a very nice bottoming signal.

Re-entering hgu with a tight stop, also added yri with stops under 4.00, using some of my gains to cover these trades.

hoping the dollar index has enough weakness to at least drop further down to the critical 94 support to give gold one last push

[GQBalla]

Rode Baytex 4.73 to 5.23

The company itself scares me

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by GQBalla
Rode Baytex 4.73 to 5.23

The company itself scares me

I think there is a lot of misconception about Baytex debt situation. Their bank loans are tied to assets, so if they do "default" it would result in assets being taken vs bankruptcy. Also, their debt doesn't mature until 2020/2021 is when the first bits roll off. While in breach of their covenants currently I think the market is pushing a lot more pressure on the company than is warranted IMO.

[riander5]

Originally posted by riander5


Bids now at 4.4 $ for this strike. When I posted my buy the other day got in for 2.00. Anyone make a quick ~120% or were you too busy reading silverexs novels?

No offence to SR - I read and appreciate all your posts :thumbsup:

XPO options finished the day at 4.8.... 2.00 -> 4.8 in 3 days

Y'all do the math aight

[riander5]

Originally posted by GQBalla
Rode Baytex 4.73 to 5.23

The company itself scares me

PWT or LTS are scarier :eek:

[ickyflex]

Big TRP purchase

[bjstare]

POU dropped down to mid $7 range before trading halt at the tail end of the day. Posted a $450M loss for Q4 2015. It was looking so good at +10% on the day as well haha.

They've initiated a big sale to Pembina ($550M) slated to close in Q2 2016, proceeds to pay down debt. I'm looking at picking up more POU shares this week. Gambling that they'll make it through this alive.

[quick_scar]

Originally posted by cjblair
POU dropped down to mid $7 range before trading halt at the tail end of the day. Posted a $450M loss for Q4 2015. It was looking so good at +10% on the day as well haha.

They've initiated a big sale to Pembina ($550M) slated to close in Q2 2016, proceeds to pay down debt. I'm looking at picking up more POU shares this week. Gambling that they'll make it through this alive.

Well fuck.....

[bjstare]

Originally posted by quick_scar


Well fuck.....

I've been waiting for this moment for a couple weeks now. I didn't want to buy in the middle of a big rally, but it's looking like it'll be a decent correction this time around (which will be amplified if oil drops in the next week) and will be a good buying opportunity. If I was going to sell this stock, I would have sold it buy now. And since I'm holding, buying in dips is going to be the play.

[Cos]

.

[SilverRex]

gold made the much needed correction but now needs to start climbing or if it takes under 1237 it could indicate the latest surge is a head fake.

if 1307 remains on the table, then this is a good place to jump in as it is on the 200day moving average off the hourly chart. I already got in late yesterday afraid of it with a gap open this morning but will adjust my stops to see if I can hang on .

looking at the gdx, technically it did achieve a higher high so wave count wise it has fulfilled the requirement and the multi week decline could be beginning. This just means that gold does not have to make a higher high. but will trade this carefully and caution myself as it is close to topping out in it's intermediate cycle

since oil already hit my 40.00 target, i am staying out, the next resistance zone is slightly above 42 which is the 200 ema on the daily, perhaps it is trying to tag this before consolidation or a profit taking events begins.

biotech sectors looks good to open the market. for those that love looking at charts, biotech has tagged twice the 200MA on the weekly. Now history may or may not repeat itself, but the last time a market tagged the 200MA after a substantial decline it went into a bubble phase in oil and also in the Nasdaq.

again do your own research but my believe is that stock market will head into a bubble phase and biotech will lead.

[Vanish3d]

I picked up some HOD for a short term play... looks like that was a bad play...

[digi355]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I picked up some HOD for a short term play... looks like that was a bad play...

I've had a good run on HOU, but I'm staying put on HOD... Unless Oil hits $44. Then I'm jumping in on HOD.

[SilverRex]

huge volume buy just came thru yamana gold and kinross

[bball2]

MEG just broke $7, got rid of it a bit too early at $6.60 yesterday, still a nice little profit :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
MEG just broke $7, got rid of it a bit too early at $6.60 yesterday, still a nice little profit :thumbsup:

yeah this is a wave v which suppose to break above the previous wave iii top at 7.03, my focus is back on metals so I didnt take the plunge. my 5.75 buy order never triggered as it got close to 5.86 :/ oh well you cant win every trade

[Cos]

.

[BavarianBeast]

Shoulda Coulda Woulda

Hindsight 20/20

[bjstare]

So far, POU not getting hurt as much as I expected. So far, only given up yesterday's gains pretty much. :drama:

[Khyron]

Originally posted by cjblair
So far, POU not getting hurt as much as I expected. So far, only given up yesterday's gains pretty much. :drama:

I bailed - was still up a few hundred.

My question is if a 1B company has ~1B in shares, and sells half its assets so now it's a 500M company - how can the shares hold their value?

[quick_scar]

Originally posted by cjblair
So far, POU not getting hurt as much as I expected. So far, only given up yesterday's gains pretty much. :drama:

I took the loss on what I had and will wait for another drop and try and ride the wave back up. Been holding that one for too long.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Khyron


I bailed - was still up a few hundred.

My question is if a 1B company has ~1B in shares, and sells half its assets so now it's a 500M company - how can the shares hold their value?

Market cap isn't necessarily directly related to the balance sheet.

[bball2]

Originally posted by Khyron


I bailed - was still up a few hundred.

My question is if a 1B company has ~1B in shares, and sells half its assets so now it's a 500M company - how can the shares hold their value?

Well it's not really a 500M company, it's a company with 500M in physical assets and 500M in cash from selling half it's physical assets. Like cjblair said, all about the balance sheet; but even then the actual market cap of the company will be affected by so many other factors; current market conditions, commodity pricing, future expectations, and etc. You can compare the price / earnings ratio of a lot of companies but a company like Tesla or Netflix where people see higher future potential will not be valued anywhere close to a company like Ford based on price to earnings ratio.

That's one of the things that Warren Buffet does really well, he looks at the companies balance sheet and determines what he thinks is a fair value of the company / according stock price. If it's really undervalued it's an indication that it's a good investment opportunity.

[SilverRex]

biotech is flirting with the previous support now turned into resistance for XBI at 49 and LABU at 6.00

if price can get above this level and stay above it for a couple of days then this means the recent massive sell off is nothing but corrective. I imagine the next move up will be a powerful wave 3 as it will then play catch up to the general stock market.

of course this has to be built on the backs and assumption that the stock market is ready to challenge new highs and change everyone's bearish view into a bullish one. technically bulls and bears are now at a crossroads and market will have to show it's hand in the next couple of trading days.

[Vanish3d]

come on oil, crash!

I sold and took a massive loss on VRX, piece of shit !
now I need oil to crash to try and recoup a portion of the losses.

[bball2]

LABU just skyrocketed past $6

[quick_scar]

Cut my losses and walked from everything.

I need to find a better strategy as I have just been bleeding money lately.

[Khyron]

Originally posted by bball2


Well it's not really a 500M company, it's a company with 500M in physical assets and 500M in cash from selling half it's physical assets. Like cjblair said, all about the balance sheet; but even then the actual market cap of the company will be affected by so many other factors; current market conditions, commodity pricing, future expectations, and etc. You can compare the price / earnings ratio of a lot of companies but a company like Tesla or Netflix where people see higher future potential will not be valued anywhere close to a company like Ford based on price to earnings ratio.

That's one of the things that Warren Buffet does really well, he looks at the companies balance sheet and determines what he thinks is a fair value of the company / according stock price. If it's really undervalued it's an indication that it's a good investment opportunity.

But they didn't just sell equipment or some land, they sold half their wells - which means they sold half their revenue potential regardless of what commodity prices do.

Ie if a restaurant chain with 100 stores sells 50 of them to a competitor, they have half of what they had before going forward. They have shrunk in size by 50% assuming all the stores were more or less equal. Sure they have the cash from the sale but that gets gobbled up by debt repayment (or they wouldn't have sold in the first place).

I really don't get it - I'm obviously missing something or over simplifying...

[SilverRex]

again please do your own research,

this is what I am thinking the biotech sector is playing out , hence I was accumulating when labu was under 6.00 so far so good. now we just need price to breakout above the sloping trendline

http://i.imgur.com/6ZX2JGo.png

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Khyron


But they didn't just sell equipment or some land, they sold half their wells - which means they sold half their revenue potential regardless of what commodity prices do.

Ie if a restaurant chain with 100 stores sells 50 of them to a competitor, they have half of what they had before going forward. They have shrunk in size by 50% assuming all the stores were more or less equal. Sure they have the cash from the sale but that gets gobbled up by debt repayment (or they wouldn't have sold in the first place).

I really don't get it - I'm obviously missing something or over simplifying...

I don't think you're missing it, but I think you are oversimplifying.

Now, put the restaurant up for sale. See what offers come in (what value the market places on it). Sure, they've lost 50 stores, but with a bunch less debt, they've got the financial ability to reshape the business and grow bigger and better in the future. People might be willing to pay more for the restaurant than it's current revenue and balance sheet indicates, because they're willing to bet on future growth.

[BavarianBeast]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-oil-rally-won-t-last-and-we-could-see-panic-selling-to--32-barrel--strategist-162358558.html

I feel like this is accurate..

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-oil-rally-won-t-last-and-we-could-see-panic-selling-to--32-barrel--strategist-162358558.html

I feel like this is accurate..

it is entirely possible and what that means is that it will be a great buying opportunity when everyone is bearish.

if 41 is a top then 32 would be the 61% retrace which is fantastic if you ask me

[Cos]

.

[SilverRex]

gold has been very boring all morning. still holding my miners. just double down with a very tight stop. yes a gamble indeed

was interested in jumping back into hou as it is near its 50 day moving average just under 39.7, but will focus on metals instead

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Cos


I see where you're going with this:

- Have 1Bn in debt
- Own $3Bn in stuff
- Net is 2Bn.

Now sell half of your stuff.

You now have $1.5Bn in dollars, $1.5 Bn in assets, and $1Bn in debt. You can get out of debt, saving interest, and keep $500,000,000 to reshape or keep all $1.5 to reshape.

Kind of where I was going... but not really haha. Try to just get away from the balance sheet for a sec.

Try and think of it this way: Market cap basically = share price. If I own 15% of the total shares in a company and I try to sell them all at once, share price (market cap) is going to drop substantially (see: supply vs demand curve), and that's got absolutely nothing to do with the balance sheet.

Anyhow, lets get back to the regular scheduled programming (i.e. everyone ogling at silverrex's charting skillz, myself included)

[bball2]

Originally posted by SilverRex
gold has been very boring all morning. still holding my miners. just double down with a very tight stop. yes a gamble indeed

was interested in jumping back into hou as it is near its 50 day moving average just under 39.7, but will focus on metals instead

Do you do specific companies or straight commodities?

I've been trading gold on and off for the past few months and have been sticking to mostly ABX (Barrick Gold) on the TSE

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2


Do you do specific companies or straight commodities?

I've been trading gold on and off for the past few months and have been sticking to mostly ABX (Barrick Gold) on the TSE

for short term I have been playing hgu, would prefer gdx but that is a USD fund, for longer term hold I will be looking at abx, k, yri, g and slw

my strategy for the next bottom is to load up on the medium size company and when I feel it is hitting an intermediate top, I will sell and move the same position into larger cap companies. Then rinse and repeat.

[riander5]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-oil-rally-won-t-last-and-we-could-see-panic-selling-to--32-barrel--strategist-162358558.html

I feel like this is accurate..

I sold all my oil stocks except for CKE at 38/39 $ UWTI the other day. A bit chapped that I missed the mini rally over the last few days but i feel from a technical AND fundamental standpoint things will drop back down. I just timed it a bit wrong. As well as selling my XPO options. F*ck

Coulda been up 15-20% on my tfsa from the last 3 days! arggg

[SilverRex]

my oil chart has rolled over to the next contract and as you can see a gap has been left between the 40-40.5 area. my bet is to see this gap filled for a final move higher towards 42-43 area.

however i want to caution since we are near a completion of a wave III, oil will be due for a bigger correction/consolidation soon that could drive price back down to 38 just to start.

the more bullish case would be to see oil extend it's fifth wave structure, but given how many still thinks we could see 10 dollar oil, i do not think it would have any more upside momentum left to push higher without first consolidating at a lower level. so the more realistic approach would be to see consolidation swing patterns in the coming weeks between 4-5 dollars. if oil corrects more than that say completely breaks down to 32 then i would say this would be an extremely great buying opportunity as it would force a final sell off in this sectors especially producers and one needs to or can start thinking longer term, buy and hold for a few years as we move back to 70 dollar oil

http://i.imgur.com/Vt7I6Px.png

[SilverRex]

for gold, my main expectation remains bearish until the next cycle low in May. however short term while it looked very bullish last week after the fed announcement, price is again starting to look weak once again. it feels like big money is selling down while the late band wagon jumpers are getting caught emotionally.

the consolidation pattern lately has made counts extremely difficult and complex because of two camps of people as demand has risen significantly and so those people who missed the initially rally are on panic mode buying up every dip.

this could be a very stretched out correction for the next 1-2 months. We may not see an outright collapse in gold price, it will be more of a side ways grind making lower lows.

looking at the lower time frame, gold is now in a sloping declining channel. if this channel holds we should not see gold dip below 1238 or risk a panic sell off. It will be a lot of work if we want to see gold test 1307 still as it needs to again take control of price back above 1255 this week.

in summary gold has more downside risk than up, especially now that the dollar index is near a strong support under 95 and could at any time now bounce very hard for the next couple of weeks which should be great because I am still waiting for a good re-entry into the miners

until such a time arrives, i will just be swing trading.

[SilverRex]

looks like a trendline breakout on biotech xbi. labu looking great this week. I will be quite happy just to ride this sector until gold corrects into May low

exiting my miners with a slight profit. sector is just too weak for me to take on risk at this time.

[riander5]

Getting in nike today for earnings

Wanted to get in way earlier but when it began going up at 58 it was in the middle of the trend i saw.

[SilverRex]

interesting development in Europe this morning, does this mean it can help gold for the short term? lets see

gold has broken above the sloping down trend channel that has been forming in the last couple of days.

however it now has a one more chance to make a new high if it can break above 1263 which would now be a perfect setup for the reverse head and shoulder pattern. this would target 1280-1300 once again.

failure to breakout imo would cause a sell off and if it gets back into the sloping down channel, it would mean this is a false breakout and lower lows will be tested

http://i.imgur.com/LRix1r6.png

[Vanish3d]

Way to go SilverRex on LABU !
can we see some technical analysis on it?
I got in at 6 with a medium size buy, and considering adding.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Way to go SilverRex on LABU !
can we see some technical analysis on it?
I got in at 6 with a medium size buy, and considering adding.

well my own count/outlook hasnt changed since the last time I posted a chart on this. since LABU is a 3x etf, it tracks closely to XBI so I look at the XBI chart instead.

again do your own research, even as bullish as I am on biotech, i could be dead wrong since charting only gives you guidance and it can always show what ever you want it to be.

If the bullish case pans out, and that will depending heavily on the fact that the 7 year cycle low in the stock market is in and that we are now moving into a bubble inflationary phase, then I expect biotech to start moving up strongly. similar to when the miners suddenly surged this year.

I believe we have completed a wave II correction and are now moving into a wave III pattern. with a chance for a small wave ii pull back that could back test 50 or slightly under. projection once it breaks the neckline around 53, it would fuel the next surge. current target to hit between 65-68. that is about 30% which is a double for LABU

http://i.imgur.com/q6gP7fQ.png

[SilverRex]

keep in mind if biotech is not ready to breakout, then an alt count could be an 3-3-3 structure with a chance price could still retest the low near 46.66, i will get excited once it breaks above 55