Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bjstare]

So are you setting your target partially based on the 200 period MA?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair
So are you setting your target partially based on the 200 period MA?

well a wave III generally moves more than wave I and since wave I is 44-55 approx that is 11, so a break above 55 + 11 = 66

it just happens to be close to the 200 moving average. more reason to be a good wave III target imo

[bjstare]

Gotcha.

[riander5]

XBI overbought on 15, 1h, and 4h intervals but doesnt seem to care. Daily has some room to run, and MACD just crossed on the daily chart as well which is a good sign.

XBI seems to follow technicals way more reliably on 1D chart than shorter time frames. I might look to dive in near the end of the day as XBI seems to spike in the morning and consolidate in the afternoon

The 15min chart is pretty interesting to look at

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5
XBI overbought on 15, 1h, and 4h intervals but doesnt seem to care. Daily has some room to run, and MACD just crossed on the daily chart as well which is a good sign.

XBI seems to follow technicals way more reliably on 1D chart than shorter time frames. I might look to dive in near the end of the day as XBI seems to spike in the morning and consolidate in the afternoon

The 15min chart is pretty interesting to look at

Agreed. MACD seems to work wonderfully on this fund if you find the right time frame to look at.

[Cos]

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[sabad66]

Originally posted by Cos
What in the hell is happening to Dirtt. :cry:
people taking profits?

i hope its nothing more... i wanted to take a position and i think this is my perfect entry point.

[bjstare]

This is probably an ok time to get into DRT. To be honest, I'm going to try and look for an exit haha. I'd rather put my money elsewhere I think, this stock just hasn't performed over the last couple quarters.

[SilverRex]

looks like it is just filling the gap left last week

[bjstare]

NKE :( so far.

[riander5]

NKE beat and then dropped lol ^

We will see what happens during the whole after hours period

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5
NKE beat and then dropped lol ^

We will see what happens during the whole after hours period

Well they beat earnings, but missed revenue by a decent amount. Their forecast is what's going to really determine what the shares do tomorrow, IMO

[riander5]

Shame for me, but iv made a good deal on past earnings so i forgive them. Hopefully it bounces back tomorrow a bit

[riander5]

Now its really getting pummeled haha

[SilverRex]

looks like commercial shorts are on the winning side and gold's attempt to breakout was a false move. once price re-entered the sloping down channel once again, it was all but clear that it was extremely bearish. to further the weakness it even broken the neckline for a new H&S pattern targeting 60 dollars lower from current level.

the recent move should be what I initially expected and have been waiting for a few weeks now. While an extreme panic sell could push gold down towards 1200-1210 area this morning. since RSI is heavily oversold, it would make sense to see price grind back up (once the swing low is in) and have price back test the neckline just under 1238 only to see price resume decline.

http://i.imgur.com/QRj4COJ.png

[SilverRex]

for oil, first good place for a swing trade may be the 40 dollar area. it would fill the gap left on Monday and remember the rule? when a resistance is broken, it becomes support.

The inventory report this morning would also play a big role. either it would fuel oil for another rally possibly above 42 or it can initiate a steeper correction. since we are still in an up trend channel, this will be your friend until it breaks so the bottom side risk should remains above 38

looks like gold is much weaker than i thought. thats a good thing ;)

[Vanish3d]

Looks like XBI is dropping.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Looks like XBI is dropping.

yup it cant go up everyday, and if this is a wave i of III then I expect a wave ii of III pull back of at least 38% off the recent low, and that points to around 50.50 which is very close to backtest the recent trendline break

[Disoblige]

So put $25k into HGU for quick trade? :rofl:

/newb

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
So put $25k into HGU for quick trade? :rofl:

/newb

it gets very difficult after a move like this as it can go both ways. Either price can grind all the way back up to retest or it can sell off further. the risk is much greater after it has already sold off significantly this morning.

[Sugarphreak]

...

[riander5]

Anyone interested in retail - although i got burnt on nike im still looking at it.

Go take a look at underarmors chart - forming a pretty nice ascending triangle.

Ill be waiting to see if it breaks out (should be in the next day or two)

http://postimg.org/image/s5eght9zx/

edit:sorry for lousy pic link but dont remember how to post proper pics nor do i feel like researching it right now

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Anybody still holding onto MEG these days?

If so, I applaud you for your stomach, you must handle carnival rides like a champ :rofl:

I'm holding.

Though I bought shares at $9, $7, $4...

Averaged around $6.50.

[ercchry]

me too... cause they were options and worth nothing right now :rofl:

[asp integra]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Anybody still holding onto MEG these days?

If so, I applaud you for your stomach, you must handle carnival rides like a champ :rofl:

I have a bit as well, bought some at 12, others at 6

[SilverRex]

those holding Meg long term, dont worry about it, oil will be back to 50-70 dollars before you know it.

[asp integra]

I don't mind holding, It wasn't meant to be a quick flip. Now its a long one haha

[ickyflex]

Closed under 40 :(.

Picked up more MEG today, WCP, VET. Should have waited till after lunch haha.

All in now :drama:

Holding AD/ALA/KEY/BTE/CJ/CPG/WCP/MEG/VET/TOU

Some mad energy weighting lol

[bball2]

Bought Meg at 5.75 and sold at 6.55, might look into opening a bigger position on it tomorrow for a longer term hold.

I'm estimating that the rig count will go up tomorrow with a slight decline or steady hold on crude oil commodity prices.

[avishal26]

Originally posted by asp integra
I don't mind holding, It wasn't meant to be a quick flip. Now its a long one haha

same here..

Although my average price is much higher than some of you. My last purchase was at $6. My average is just under $15.

Was this close to purchasing at $3.6 but decided not to add risk to the same stock that was already losing 75% for me. Now kinda wish I had. Would've dropped by average to ~$11

[Type_S1]

Originally posted by ickyflex
Closed under 40 :(.

Picked up more MEG today, WCP, VET. Should have waited till after lunch haha.

All in now :drama:

Holding AD/ALA/KEY/BTE/CJ/CPG/WCP/MEG/VET/TOU

Some mad energy weighting lol

I still think oil is going to test 30 by mid year...but I've been wrong before. By December we will be over 50 though so either way it's a good buy.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by Type_S1


I still think oil is going to test 30 by mid year...but I've been wrong before. By December we will be over 50 though so either way it's a good buy.

Oh absolutely! I think there is risk it could re-test 30 but I think longer term it won't stay in this price band so in case it has already bottomed and 30 is never coming back then i'm in. If it does re-test then it's a shame I could have gotten cheaper but at least i'm not missing out on the opportunity while it is here and rises.

Tough to catch the bottom but at these prices I'm comfortable taking a paper loss if I bought too early.

[SilverRex]

nothing has changed since my last comment.

oil if you recall my last chart, I thought it was going to refill the gap left near 40 before breaking into 42-43, instead it grinded higher first to complete a sub wave v which was the top of the trend channel then begin to fall for a bigger correction. At this time some say the channel has been broken to the down side, but i feel we are still in a up channel and price is currently right near the bottom which if we continue the same swings as the last 1 1/2 month, then oil should in theory bounce here. worse case would be slightly lower low towards 38.50

if oil is to continue its trend for another high, it needs to recapture above 40.

a more bearish tone or a even greater correction 4> that I was calling for would be in the cards if 38.40 fails it would quickly accelerate down to the 36 area

For gold, we are in a down trend, with a small divergence this morning would point to gold having some momentum. I feel it would tag the 1230 50MA then fall back down, a higher target could still hit 1242 200MA on the hourly as that would be the backtest I was referring too yesterday. Over all I am expecting gold to move two steps down one steps up for the next couple of weeks

[SilverRex]

anyone trading LABU dont freak out if you see share price at 24, since it did a reverse split 4:1

[Cos]

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[SilverRex]

i have two scenario for oil

a more bullish case is that oil will rally off the lower channel for another crack at 42 then begin to consolidate side ways until a breakout occurs opening up 44-45 oil.

a weaker path would be to see price continue to fall towards 36, backtest the channel line then fall even further.

a bigger than >4 dollar oil correction is coming, the only thing is if it will be now or begin at a much higher price level.

obviously the higher oil goes, the chance of seeing 30 dollar oil will begin to disappear. imo, the lowest I think we will see is 32 oil as a correction. but if oil moves higher towards 45, then this level will also be higher.

http://i.imgur.com/KwaQXOb.png

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Cos
At what point, oil wise, do people stop worrying. I know $65-$70 is when a lot of projects may come back on, but where is the level where we can go :whew:, ok we're done and through it for now and just coast along like the early 2000's.

i stopped worrying when oil broke above 32.50 a long time ago as technically it has invalidated the bearish technical outlook.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
anyone trading LABU dont freak out if you see share price at 24, since it did a reverse split 4:1

lol, my portfolio still shows the old number of shares at the new price.... looked like I quadrippled profits - if only. Looks like it's going to open ~5% in the red

[Cos]

.

[digi355]

Originally posted by Cos


Don't stop posting in here, I leave this thread open and hit F5 a few times a day. Learning a lot. Thanks



SilverRex is my daily brief. Always has awesome insight - and lately has been more right than wrong!

[Type_S1]

Originally posted by Cos
At what point, oil wise, do people stop worrying. I know $65-$70 is when a lot of projects may come back on, but where is the level where we can go :whew:, ok we're done and through it for now and just coast along like the early 2000's.

Industries costs of business are being reset. I highly doubt we will ever see what we did during the 2000's through to 2014. Companies will now see $70 oil similar to $100 as costs of business should he down significantly going forward. A lot of people who lost their jobs on the corporate side may well never get back into oil and gas as companies will not allow so much dead weight to exist. On the field side companies aren't going to pay the ridiculous rates demanded in 2014 which means the day rates of field guys will never recover to the same level. This downturn was a game changer in my mind.

[Cos]

.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Type_S1


Industries costs of business are being reset. I highly doubt we will ever see what we did during the 2000's through to 2014. Companies will now see $70 oil similar to $100 as costs of business should he down significantly going forward. A lot of people who lost their jobs on the corporate side may well never get back into oil and gas as companies will not allow so much dead weight to exist. On the field side companies aren't going to pay the ridiculous rates demanded in 2014 which means the day rates of field guys will never recover to the same level. This downturn was a game changer in my mind.

Agree 100%. I wasn't working in 2000, but I was working during the 2008 one, and this is significantly different.

Everyone I know in the industry that has worked through all the recent ones (even back to the late 80s) is echoing what S1 posted. $40 is the new $65, $70 is the new $100.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
Bought Meg at 5.75 and sold at 6.55, might look into opening a bigger position on it tomorrow for a longer term hold.

I'm estimating that the rig count will go up tomorrow with a slight decline or steady hold on crude oil commodity prices.

congrads if you picked up MEG under 6 this morning, I was tempted but since I have opened a position in hou for swing trade. I have to pass

[Cos]

.

[SilverRex]

biotech sector had a huge sell off this morning and is now green and surging. I bet no one has the gut to get in when its selling off like that lol.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
biotech sector had a huge sell off this morning and is now green and surging. I bet no one has the gut to get in when its selling off like that lol.

so volatile !
I was close to selling at the bottom at -8% then someone came into my office and distracted me now it's up 5%.
That's a massive swing !

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


so volatile !
I was close to selling at the bottom at -8% then someone came into my office and distracted me now it's up 5%.
That's a massive swing !

if your trading LABU 3x etf its not for the faint of heart. I could be dead wrong, but my charting, count remains unchanged. this is a wave II sell off, and it could be as steep as 78%, guess what, it did just that. is this how big money like to shake all the weak hands off? I am not sure but so far it looks like a classic correction to the extreme before a big move upwards?

[SilverRex]

look at the chart I posted a few days ago

http://i.imgur.com/q6gP7fQ.png

I cant imagine it would play out to the tee with price wave i hitting 53 right at the line, then collapse to wave ii

[riander5]

especially for me who finally followed a silverrex call but got in 2 days ago to absorb a sweet loss on LABU.

Still holding .... would have been nice to get in on that green with the rest of you first

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
especially for me who finally followed a silverrex call but got in 2 days ago to absorb a sweet loss on LABU.

Still holding .... would have been nice to get in on that green with the rest of you first

sorry to hear you got in late. I hope my call pans out for your sake. day trading is very gut wrenching at times. Sometimes I cant even be as confidence as I am. had I stuck to the chart without any emotions I should have sold my position for a 25% profit when XBI was at 53, then buyback low pretty much back to where I got in. Then I thought what if I miss the big move, and so that is how most trader lose money lol our own emotions get in the way pretty much every single time.

also you can never enter the right price. it is pure luck some times to be able to hit the right level. Hence for this sector I have purchased multiple positions during the entire last sell off (not the recent one) and so to maintain an average price under 6 (24 post split)

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5
especially for me who finally followed a silverrex call but got in 2 days ago to absorb a sweet loss on LABU.

Still holding .... would have been nice to get in on that green with the rest of you first

Always pays to do your own research as well. 2 days ago, 30m MACD was crossing into negative - scary time to go long on something, esp a leveraged fund.

[riander5]

Originally posted by cjblair


Always pays to do your own research as well. 2 days ago, 30m MACD was crossing into negative - scary time to go long on something, esp a leveraged fund.

I never follow technicals on the leveraged ETF's .. maybe thats a mistake maybe not.

They are always following a different fund or commodity so ill track that separately, and for what I saw on XBI the entry point wasnt all that bad.

But I was wrong haha

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5


I never follow technicals on the leveraged ETF's .. maybe thats a mistake maybe not.

They are always following a different fund or commodity so ill track that separately, and for what I saw on XBI the entry point wasnt all that bad.

But I was wrong haha

Agreed, I was actually talking about the XBI chart :rofl:

Don't get me wrong though, I'm not judging. I bought XBI around the same time, so I'm just looking at breakeven now. Having said that, I have a longer term play in mind, and will average into a position.

[bball2]

Back into ABX @ 18

[bball2]

Baker Hughes rig count went up; immediately got out of DWTI for a small profit (big increase overnight) but the news definitely didn't go the way I expected.

[cloud7]

Originally posted by bball2
Baker Hughes rig count went up; immediately got out of DWTI for a small profit (big increase overnight) but the news definitely didn't go the way I expected.

I am not sure if you mean rig count went down. It's down by 12 rigs in the US and 14 in Canada as compared to last week as far as I can see.

[bball2]

Originally posted by cloud7


I am not sure if you mean rig count went down. It's down by 12 rigs in the US and 14 in Canada as compared to last week as far as I can see.

Ooops my mistake, meant to say went down (was expecting it to go up based on recent oil prices)

[SilverRex]

US dollar finally broke down from a rising channel. While I expect a higher dollar still, it should provide a short term weakness.

With this I intended to swing trade yri to see if the near term US dollar weakness could translate to 20-30 higher gold price and backtest some key resistance before falling again.

also bought hou right at open as it did rally off 38.50 text book style, and cashing out after 5% - might regret this if oil does regain momentum, but that is fine since a stronger oil will no doubt help the biotech sector as well, using this small profit as stop loss to gamble on miners for a few days.

[SilverRex]

well kinda bored, so im throwing up some charts. So far biotech sector is forming a classic bottoming process. Yes no patterns or count ever is 100% I say 60-70% because all technical investor look and feed off the same charting and it does add reason to believe that this sector has a high probability to move higher in the coming weeks.

As you can see, a classic cup and handle, the recent sell off is a backtest of the trendline break which began its 4 day surge. As long as 46.66 holds, this chart will continue to be my guide with the expecation price will break above 55, backtest for support than move towards the target price of 66 and yes it can overshoot as the 200 moving average is near 68.

the alt count if a rise is not immediate next week would be to suggest a smaller abc correctional wave ii and a lower low can still be produced just under 48.29 but not breaking below 46.66

pretty tight stuff right? yes I know.

still beats throwing money in the casino with odds favorably against you.

http://i.imgur.com/lRGbzf7.png

[SilverRex]

Time to put on the thinking cap and go devils advocate here. Currently the sentiment on the market is extremely bearish. Everyone is calling the market to repeat 08 and even worse a deflationary 1930. Many are shorting the market at the current level, and we all have learn that when everyone is thinking one way, the opposite occurs, it has been my philosophy in life even in my own family and all the day to day things that happen.

It is possible price can finally break the down trendline that has given the shorts their reason to stay bear for so long. If this is the case, the ultimate buying opportunity will be when price backtest the breakout. Since Sept last year, I have moved all my investments to cash (beside the swing trades lately) i will begin paying closer attention to begin moving into a longer term hold such as the breakout and backtest for entry.

of course if I am wrong and the market turns around as usual and drops 5%, I will still move my position in. Simply put, in order to see 70 dollar oil, biotech breakout, the market has to have recovered and ready to challenge new highs. the 7 year cycle has come and gone, it had 2 opportunity to crash like 08 back in Sept 15 and also this year in Feb, yet the government found ways (aka plunge protection team) prevented the collapse, which tells me the US government is now wanting inflation as to inflate all asset. So if you cant bet against them then might as well join them.

we are in a similar situation as we did back in 09 when after the crash, all asset went up together. Oil, gold, stock market. That is how the government fights deflation, they will inflate the market in epic proportion .

I am specifically focusing on miners and biotech as the two sectors that will out perform the rest.

So the time is here again for a buy and hold strategy.

http://i.imgur.com/ZCKMNzW.png

[SilverRex]

Looking at the very long term, oil was trading in the range of 10-40 until it broke into a new range.

we have completed an ABC correction with wave C lower than wave A, so when price re closed above 40 it has signal the bottom is in. Which means, yes you will not see sub 20 oil price again.

looking at the next couple of years, I see oil slowly getting back above the 50 and 200 day moving average and will continue to stay above it 60+, if there is in deed a bubble phase happening in the stock market, then oil will even retest and a chance to break 110 in future. Not tomorrow but in the future.

I see energy stocks long play extremely attractive. as well

http://i.imgur.com/ZDxtmHp.png

[riander5]

I thought correction waves were supposed to be in groups of 3

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
I thought correction waves were supposed to be in groups of 3

are you talking about the oil chart? if so no not necessary. it could be a 3-3-5 or 5-3-5 and still be a correctional wave structure

[riander5]

Hmm i see. Waiting for my Elliot Wave book in the mail :D

[SilverRex]

looking at gold, it is still in a declining channel and I expect rallies will continue to be sold off this month. I expect the most likely resistance is the 1232 area and expect another wave lower, top side would be at 1246 and unless it can break above 1250 I do not see gold being bullish at this time.

sold my miners for a small profit.

as for oil, looks like 40 was the obvious resistance. good thing I took my profit. now that it has broken the rising channel, it appears to have moved into a steeper correction. 39.25 will now act as the key area and unless it can quickly recover above this today, it has opened up down to the 36-37 area which will be the 38% retrace as well as the 50 day moving average on the daily which will be a good entry if price was to test this level this week.

check the 5 day RSI on the daily, as soon as oil hits over sold, i expect it to reverse.

[riander5]

Thoughts on xbi?

[bball2]

Some technical analysis on SUNE :rofl:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/4cf3cu/ta_of_sune/

http://i.imgur.com/JcHzDsT.png


As you can see, we see a Clear trend towards the resistance line. A classic rainbow pattern. This trade is low risk, high reward. Definetly a STRONG BUY on SUNE, and price target at 40. 3000% Return. Almost guaranteed.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Thoughts on xbi?

look at my last chart on xbi, I was expecting a move down below 48.29 and it looks like it is doing that this morning.

yes it would be concerning if it breaks below the previous low at 46.66 does give a lot of room. if this area fails we could be looking at a lower low (below 44)

[SilverRex]

if oil consolidates side ways or even move higher >42 Meg has great potential at current level.

bought a small position this morning as it 'finally' filled the gap that was left many weeks ago in the low 5.60s

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
if oil consolidates side ways or even move higher >42 Meg has great potential at current level.

bought a small position this morning as it 'finally' filled the gap that was left many weeks ago in the low 5.60s

Yea im watching it. I focused too much on XBI's macd and didnt pay attention to its massive overbought status when I got in.

Right now its looking like daily, 4h, and 1h charts will line up for an oversold position pretty soon, I might average down a bit in the next day or so if it drops a bit more

famous last words

edit - quoted wrong post meant the one above

[SilverRex]

I will be buying Meg on the way down from here, using oil price as reference the ideal scenario is to see oil hit the 38% retrace near 37 or any capitulation below. At this current time I do not see oil going under 35. And yes oil does not have to drop further as it has already made a lower low under 38.25

Either oil gets into a buy zone or wait until oil has the momentum to regain it's 50/200 moving average as well as breaking the current sloping trendline.

we will now wait and see which ever comes first

http://i.imgur.com/aMMjORI.png

[SilverRex]

looks like I wasnt the only one spotting XBI to hit exactly under 48.29 but not lower than 46.66, it touched 47.88 and LABU has since reversed 18% I bet everyone was sweating and couldnt pull the trigger lol

looks like the Fed added more bullish momentum to the stock market. I have moved my RRSP back into equities as it appears the market is beginning to runaway sort of speak. Every correction in the last couple of weeks has been extremely mild

oil is in no man's land, until it reveals its hand perhaps by tomorrow after the inventory report would set things moving. ( I heard if oil can close the month in March at the current level, it will technically open the price target to 62)

gold as expected, moved pass 1232 and very close to the last resistance area just under 1246, I do not expect gold to breakout yet. Looking for this sector to fully reverse towards a new low.

[riander5]

I followed your MEG play because I see oil also bottoming in the next few days. Made a good chunk - im now even on the labu buy lol

Good call :thumbsup:

Even my decimated nike calls went up a bit today. I have faith in that stock climbing back to and over 65 in a month.

[SilverRex]

LABU closing the day on record volume, very encouraging

[max_boost]

Can we change the thread to SilverRex's Technical Analysis haha :thumbsup:

[bspot]

Got in on MEG today (although later than I would have liked due to having a job and stuff). I wish I had more experience and balls, as this seems like a good time to be doing this sort of thing with much bigger positions than I am.

[Type_S1]

I truly don't think you should be following advice on oil pricing in this thread. Technicals do not have any bearing on how oil is moving and it is a very poor investing strategy to think so. There are much bigger items (fundamentals, geopolitical knowledge, reserves & production forecasts, Capex programs industry wide, etc.) institutional investors are looking to when moving $$ in and out of energy.

Also, what is everyone in this threads obsession with MEG? Serious question because I've looked at them multiple times and nothing is that attractive.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
LABU closing the day on record volume, very encouraging

The daily swings on it is nuts. If only we can catch it at the right times you can make some serious money day trading it.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by Type_S1
I truly don't think you should be following advice on oil pricing in this thread. Technicals do not have any bearing on how oil is moving and it is a very poor investing strategy to think so. There are much bigger items (fundamentals, geopolitical knowledge, reserves & production forecasts, Capex programs industry wide, etc.) institutional investors are looking to when moving $$ in and out of energy.

Also, what is everyone in this threads obsession with MEG? Serious question because I've looked at them multiple times and nothing is that attractive.

Who is to say one way of trading is superior to the other? There will always be a school of thought on Fundamental vs Technical vs Behavioral trading and no one has even proven one to be superior to the other.

Even when you talk about fundamentals there is always psychological resistance/support that comes into play as well when you talk to any commodity trader.

Let's talk fundamentals though, read every analyst report because they go on market fundamentals and they have all been wrong many many times over. They have been right before too, so again it begs the question who is to say one way is better than the other.

The fundamentals will tell you that it could go up or down... there is valid arguments in either direction.

A prudent investor should take into consideration all the information that is available to them (technical/fundamental) and make their own rational decisions and due diligence before investing.

People love MEG because it's a play on Oil. Call it HOU 5x leverage because that's how it seems to trade.

I'm not saying anyone is wrong or right but I don't think it is as clear cut as your post seems to suggest.

[bspot]

Originally posted by Type_S1
I truly don't think you should be following advice on oil pricing in this thread. Technicals do not have any bearing on how oil is moving and it is a very poor investing strategy to think so. There are much bigger items (fundamentals, geopolitical knowledge, reserves & production forecasts, Capex programs industry wide, etc.) institutional investors are looking to when moving $$ in and out of energy.

Also, what is everyone in this threads obsession with MEG? Serious question because I've looked at them multiple times and nothing is that attractive.

It's the new BTE bro! :rofl:

I'm pretty plugged into fundamentals, and fundamentals all point to being below the equilibrium price.

Long term, I view entry into energy pretty low risk at this point. The time horizon for recovery to equilibrium or past equilibrium is something I don't feel comfortable predicting, so in the meantime riding some short term trends with a some spare money is kind of fun while leaving a bunch of other stuff locked in long term.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Type_S1
I truly don't think you should be following advice on oil pricing in this thread. Technicals do not have any bearing on how oil is moving and it is a very poor investing strategy to think so. There are much bigger items (fundamentals, geopolitical knowledge, reserves & production forecasts, Capex programs industry wide, etc.) institutional investors are looking to when moving $$ in and out of energy.

Also, what is everyone in this threads obsession with MEG? Serious question because I've looked at them multiple times and nothing is that attractive.

As previously mentioned, it's ridiculous to discount technicals and turn around and say fundamentals are more reliable.

They're both unreliable at times, so as mentioned, an investor/trader is hurting themselves by not using all the available information to make educated trades.

Also, good luck at trading oil on reserves info and geopolitical info. By the time any of this shit hits the media, the price has already been impacted.

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot


It's the new BTE bro! :rofl:

I'm pretty plugged into fundamentals, and fundamentals all point to being below the equilibrium price.

Long term, I view entry into energy pretty low risk at this point. The time horizon for recovery to equilibrium or past equilibrium is something I don't feel comfortable predicting, so in the meantime riding some short term trends with a some spare money is kind of fun while leaving a bunch of other stuff locked in long term.

Although I agree with most of you that fundamentals is a big driver of price action, there are some things i disagree with the fundamental view on.

What is the fundamental reasoning for oils climb from 27-40 dollars? That OPEC will freeze production, but Iran is working its hardest to flood the market with an extra couple MMbbls ?

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by riander5


Although I agree with most of you that fundamentals is a big driver of price action, there are some things i disagree with the fundamental view on.

What is the fundamental reasoning for oils climb from 27-40 dollars? That OPEC will freeze production, but Iran is working its hardest to flood the market with an extra couple MMbbls ?

Also, if fundamentals were so good the price of oil should not have crashed from $100 to $25 in less than 2 years. The data and information was there, no one just seemed to give a damn until they felt like it.

As much as people will tell you it's Supply/Demand, it really is not that simple.

[SilverRex]

oil has produced a buy signal and has broken above 39.25, next hurdle is back above 40.00 and trend has resumed imo targeting 44-45 if the new channel formed continues.

gold is unable to breakout the declining channel, lets see if it will have the ability to resume the current path and that is down

DOW has finally broken the downtrending neckline next target will be to test the high however there is a good chance it can backtest the breakout but either way more technical buy signal for this runaway move.

LABU looking good, initial pop stopped right at 52 which is bear's last defense before she pops. If this is the real run, it needs to move now break and hold above 52

[riander5]

One nice thing about XBI and therefore LABU is that the volume seems to quite consistently be higher on the up days, signalling a breakout to the upside.

Heres hoping

[SilverRex]

not sure if oil is trying to fill the gap and backtest the breakout. will pickup some hou with a tight stop below yesterday's low to see if this is a shake out or not.

[SilverRex]

not liking how xbi couldnt take off and regain momentum and actually closed lower while the market was green. if the entire market drags this sector down then watch 46.66, I may exit my LABU if this level breaks and look for a lower entry

oil is back at where we left off yesterday. looks like all eyes will now be on friday's NFP report. I am wondering if oil still wants to make a dash towards 36 for this correction. 5 day RSI is just a notch from oversold, thought the turn was today. Will keep my oil play intact unless oil breaks below 38 which probably signals 36 to be the next stop.

this is also month end and that could bring volatility as funds like to take profit to butter up their portfolio after all the market had a great run in years.

gold moved down as expected, will only buy if it can make a lower low under 1207

[SilverRex]

looks like the important NFP report tomorrow morning will be key to next week's direction.

for the time being,

looks like oil is in a sloping wedge, which is generally bullish. I expect once this correction completes oil will make another high 42+

short term bottom imo will be 36 shall oil suddenly collapse which will be a great entry. no pattern is solid, and we could very well have a breakdown from this pattern only to hit certain support levels then reverse.

http://i.imgur.com/87Xt7Hv.png

of course once oil takes off again, the general stock market will resume upwards.

[suntan]

Some of you might get a kick out of this article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-millennials-looking-to-get-rich-or-die-tryin-off-one-of-wall-streets-riskiest-oil-plays-2016-03-30?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link

[bspot]

SilverRex, any advice for how to time my except of LABU? Or just keep refreshing this page like normal and you'll let me know what you're seeing ;) haha

[bspot]

Took my 10% gains and ran. I get so twitchy with leveraged ETFs.

[SilverRex]

well the NFP and employment report are just tools for big money to either dump shares to retail investor ( if gap up on good news) or swoop up shares from weak hands if market is negative bias

look at a potential full reverse taking place.

after initial dip, I reduced my LABU by 25% looks like a mistake as LABU is now green. the biotech (appears to be trying to break out) I'll either ride it thru april or buy the lows if it still has trouble and decides to go for one more swing lower

I also read someone buy major call options for biotech sector in April. (didnt confirm this)

oil did breakdown from the wedge going after 36 as I was expecting. I was lucky enough to have bought at the low yesterday and exited my position mid day to buy lower.

oil has fulfilled the 5 day RSI, and if this bull market is real, oil should bounce, re-entered hou with a tight stop but will see how it goes as after a drop like this, it may retest or need to form some sort of bottoming pattern or divergence. meaning, oil could rise a little reverse going lower then rally

well gold, if you have been following my charts, it continues to look bearish. Thats all I have to say.

[riander5]

Originally posted by suntan
Some of you might get a kick out of this article:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-millennials-looking-to-get-rich-or-die-tryin-off-one-of-wall-streets-riskiest-oil-plays-2016-03-30?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link

Stumbled upon that subreddit the other day, some numbnuts was doing technical analysis in like an ultra micro cap (sub 1 million dollars) and said everything was primed for a bullish run.

Coles notes - TA doesnt work so well on low volume low market cap stocks and people were pissed :rofl:

[SilverRex]

just posting the DOW if this is in fact a runaway market

looks similar to gold shares when it first rose from the bottom in December. it made 5 waves then corrected very little then wave 3 hits....

do your own research

http://i.imgur.com/xRvCwcR.png

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex


do your own research



:werd:

Although, something tells me the people that would just follow your lead without doing their own research, aren't about to start researching haha. In any case, I like reading your posts. Keep it up :thumbsup:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair


:werd:

Although, something tells me the people that would just follow your lead without doing their own research, aren't about to start researching haha. In any case, I like reading your posts. Keep it up :thumbsup:

well nothing fancy about how I trade or look at the market, im pretty sure when things are going well, it feels like I hold the crystal ball , but when I am wrong thats another story lol

[Manhattan]

Is there a Canadian ETF that tracks oil price that's good for a longer hold?

[ickyflex]

You could buy an O&G weighted ETF from a bank like ZEO

[Manhattan]

That's not what I'm looking for since I think O&G companies are overbought at current levels. Looking for something that tracks crude price only.