Official Short-term Investments Thread

[suntan]

Use UWTI and invest a 1/3 of what you wanted to.

[riander5]

Originally posted by suntan
Use UWTI and invest a 1/3 of what you wanted to.

Done

except i invested 3/3 of what i wanted. Holding till 2018

Will report back

[bjstare]

Originally posted by suntan
Use UWTI and invest a 1/3 of what you wanted to.

He wants a long hold, he's not looking for a trading instrument. Go back to reddit where you belong :rofl:


I kid, I kid. Anyhow, it's not canadian, but I'm holding XLE. It effectively tracks oil price, it's basically all the big oil companies. It's not quite as volatile as oil, but I think it has good potential.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by Manhattan
That's not what I'm looking for since I think O&G companies are overbought at current levels. Looking for something that tracks crude price only.

There is no such thing as a good long term hold commodity tracking ETF. You lose on month rolls

[SilverRex]

well not sure whos still holding LABU unless you bought at the very high you should at least be up no matter where you bought in the last few weeks.

just a quick update on XBI which is what LABU follows very closely. Friday was a very good breakout on strong volume.

looks like US stock market is indeed in a runaway market to break new highs in the coming weeks, all the short covering about to take place will only fuel the rally further.

dont forget the stock market rallied extremely hard despite weakening oil which means as soon as oil finds a bottom (finishes its daily cycle low), it will also add more fuel to the exiting rally.

looking at XBI, the count that I posted a few weeks back remains intact. Nothing has changed, yet with this breakout, one has to consider all possibility and personally I think the perfect zone regardless if this is a true bull market or bear rally it should hit 57.5 at a bare minimum. that will be roughly another 25% higher for LABU.

Then anything can happen from there. If prices loses momentum from that point on, this chart will look like a bear flag ready to hit to new lows.

Those holding this sector will need to just stick to your best exiting strategy based on your risk tolerance. Usually a safe bet would be to lock in half the profit and let the other half ride with a stop loss as long as the low for the day does not break below the previous low or previous two days low. thats just me

if this sector has started a bull run then similar to the miners last December, it may just keep going up without stopping and price will be consolidating between the 60-66 range if this happens it will first have to breakout above 57.5 therefore making this area the likely short term target.

http://i.imgur.com/dhOExtk.png

[SilverRex]

for oil

1 1/2 weeks ago I mention the possibility of oil ready to make a >4 dollar correction and that if price falls out of the rising channel it will be looking for at least a 38% fib correction down to the 36 area. looks like oil is doing exactly that, I know there are nay sayer about technical analysis, but how can you ignore the high frequency of how the market moves and explain in advance that price more often than not, moves in a technical manner? Yes fundamentals do matters, and at critical times fundamentals sets the stage for direction and trend and technical analysis simply shows us how to get from A to B. combine them, makes investing a little bit more easy to predict amid at an increased rate but not 100%. There are too many factors involved such as manipulation, stop loss hunting, mental and emotional basis and government intervention. Needless to say, as long as you are winning more than losing thats all it matters.

nothing new to write home about on oil except on the daily RSI 5, it has hit over sold territory, if this is a runaway oil bull market, then it should rise out of the oversold very quickly. 36 is a very good support given it is the 50 day moving average and 38% fib retracement. The key is to wait for a swing low and I imagine we will retest 42 again. The ultimate surprise will be to see oil break and hold above 42 which is the 200 dma. It would set off alot of debate and force many negative market analysis to turn bullish.

Remember I said earlier, if oil can close the month in around the 38 level technical it has opened up the 60 oil price target? i am unsure we will get there in the next month or not but certainly a very highly probability before year end.

personally again this is my own believes and studies, I do not think you will see low 20 oil again. The cartel and forces behind all the big money will do what they want and when they want. The world has already set in motion and revealed its hand that it does not want deflation. low oil prices will only hurt everyone as companies will go into default and that will drag down the banks. By allowing inflation to take hold and in full force, the world will print their way out of any recession via negative interest rates which is why Gold and Energy will be top performers in years to come. Gold even more so because this sector was beaten up so badly so it will be the best investment class imo. After the big 90% rise off the bottom, this sector is now in a seasonal weak and making it's cycle low. Once that is finished (hopefully end of this month and perhaps in May) will go long for another big move.

The only issue is, despite gold's recently weakness, the miner refuse to crash. which is not good if one is waiting on the sideline, the miners in the next few weeks will be very erratic, still many panic buying on every dip as most people missed the rally and wanting to get in on any price. I may have to ease myself back into position over the course of the next few weeks.

http://i.imgur.com/5kuXUiq.png

[SilverRex]

oil has tested the 50 DMA this morning at 36.20 while it is just slightly off the 38% level at 36, it could be viewed as close enough, it will be interesting to see if it is ready to turn around. key area to watch is 37.25-37.50 once oil can over come this area I expect oil to begin a new trend towards 42 and even 44-45 in the coming weeks.

if oil shall fall before rising today, I expect 36 area to hold and be an extremely good buying area

http://i.imgur.com/04MKk1z.png

[SilverRex]

my LABU position is now up 33%, the most difficult part is holding this for further gains. and added more meg at 6.18 this morning to strengthen my oil position. also picked up 1k share pwt just for a fun low risk high reward for a bit of a longer term hold

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
my LABU position is now up 33%, the most difficult part is holding this for further gains.

I got back in after the initial brief drop last week after researching more based on your outlook, and thank god. Gains are ridiculous for a one week hold.

[SilverRex]

looks like oil is going after 36 one last time...

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
my LABU position is now up 33%, the most difficult part is holding this for further gains. and added more meg at 6.18 this morning to strengthen my oil position. also picked up 1k share pwt just for a fun low risk high reward for a bit of a longer term hold

Im in a similar boat. Cash in now and wait for a small drop or ride it out.
Daja Vu of last time - and right decision last time was cash out and wait.

[bjstare]

I'd be looking at the XBI MACD and 50 vs 200 EMA for a selling indicator on LABU. It's at this point I'd be thinking about purchasing LABD as well.

[SilverRex]

well oil has certainly fulfilled it's min requirement for this correction and fully tested 36 amid being slightly under. Now it is a wait and see if it is ready to reverse. otherwise next support will be in the 34-35 area for a 50% retracement for the 26-42 rally.

[SilverRex]

bullish oil catalyst?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-04/saudis-retaliate-oil-freeze-fallout-ban-transport-iranian-crude-territorial-waters

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by cjblair
I'd be looking at the XBI MACD and 50 vs 200 EMA for a selling indicator on LABU. It's at this point I'd be thinking about purchasing LABD as well.

I did just that. I sold my LABU at 33 and bought LABD 44 and now gonna cash out at 46.

for once, that worked out!

now debating if I should exit LABD and back into LABU with half the position

[bspot]

I dumped LABU at $32 and hopped on LABD at $44. Dumped at $46.70

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


I did just that. I sold my LABU at 33 and bought LABD 44 and now gonna cash out at 46.

for once, that worked out!

now debating if I should exit LABD and back into LABU with half the position

very bold, good job able to cash in like that.

XBI is in an uptrend channel with critical support at 53. this could be an excellent support failure to hold would give me some doubts on the recent bullish run

[Vanish3d]

^ it's only bold when it works out. Most of the time it's just a donkey move lol

I ended up buying 1/2 position in LABU just before close at 30.7 - now I wait and see

[SilverRex]

i am surprised oil could not bounce off 36 then again who am to think I can time every reversal considering oil remains in a short term down trend until we see a swing low or support to form.

remapping the channel is now a full channel telling us oil remains weak.

however daily is over sold, 1 hour is over sold, and it has also produced a 5 waves down from the 5 pt bearish wedge breakdown at wave 'e'

I expect a bounce regardless of which direction oil will go from here. Oil needs to retest 38 which is the 38% retrace for a reverse bearish move. Oil will attract technical buyers again if it can get back above 38, until then, it will be one's risk appetite that determines if buying at current level makes any sense at all.

again we have fully tested the 36 support level, next level is 34-34.8 follow by 32

the only encouraging sign is Meg seems to be holding well despite a 2 week oil weakness, and every time oil rallies a little Meg jumps, but sell off is limited.

http://i.imgur.com/kcldokd.png

[riander5]

All i know if Nike doesnt come back in the next 3 months im gonna be f*cking pissed :banghead:

[SilverRex]

future looks negative this morning with only gold being up.

gold is right back up the upper declining channel and if it breaks out then it will gain further momentum looks like 1240 is key resistance if it shall remain bearish this month.

oil I expect a bounce to start and so far it is holding just above 35, if it shall fall further I expect the lowest it should see and should hold is around 34.8

XBI produced an exhausting candle and obviously will open lower to start the day. there is a rising channel that gives support at 53 area and 52.50 is also can be the backtest area for the recent breakout.

I expect market to fully recover or reverse today. but anything can happen as the general market is quite overbought and may need to take a break to reset before making higher highs.

[SilverRex]

oil stock is holding very well against the recent oil price sell off. another indication that this drop is a correction

couple of big orders came in round Meg at 6.10, and jumped as soon as oil inched higher slightly. continue to hold Meg for 7+ exit

biotech xbi rallied off 53 perfectly will see if sell off is just another buying opportunity

[SilverRex]

as I mention yesterday, 53 was the bottom of the rising channel and would be a good entry. this morning it bounced off 53 text book style, chalk that up for technical analysis

http://i.imgur.com/vGqw609.png

[SilverRex]

watching euro/usd closely, it appears the USD is going to have a short term breakdown, I suspect this will push gold and everything up for a nice pop. in which I expect gold to be a head fake follow by another round of big sell off as the miners appears to be having a hard time moving higher. ABX still has not come close in making new highs which tells me this sector still needs to make a lower low before the next big move

i am hoping the weakness in USD will give xbi enough juice to test 60 so I can take my profit and wait for a better correction

[riander5]

Forgot to post 2 days ago bought PUTS on DLTR -

So far so good

[riander5]

http://s8.postimg.org/rfx3ksa1x/Capture.jpg

Hoping my boy Nike bounces back... oversold on 1h4h and 1d, and i drew some elliot waves in for fun to be like silver rex. Also a bullish reversal candlestick pattern forming

Crossing my fingers

[dirtsniffer]

What should I do to understand what the heck you and rex post about?

[riander5]

Originally posted by dirtsniffer
What should I do to understand what the heck you and rex post about?

I was in the same shoes as you, i read the following book

Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets - good intro and will teach you to understand most of what we type

Im now reading - Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (more advanced than above)

After that im reading - Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method

And after all that who knows if i even get my picks right - but some of my TA lately has been paying off... this DLTR short and my last one, as well as my last XPO call all were 50-150% gains.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by dirtsniffer
What should I do to understand what the heck you and rex post about?

If you don't want to jump right into a book, start with google. Investopedia has a shitpile of information on it. I've spent hours on that site and only scratched the surface, but it's been incredibly educational for me.

[Mibz]

Originally posted by cjblair
If you don't want to jump right into a book, start with google. Investopedia has a shitpile of information on it. I've spent hours on that site and only scratched the surface, but it's been incredibly educational for me. I've tried this approach twice and both times I've come out with only a mildly better understanding. There's just too much information out there. If you're new to this then I think you need guidance or else you'll drown. A good road map for learning TA doesn't exist for noobs. Or at least I haven't found it.

Books provide a logical flow of information and do a good job of reinforcing previously taught ideas so you don't read them once and then forget about them.

[bball2]

Originally posted by dirtsniffer
What should I do to understand what the heck you and rex post about?

reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets

Everything you need to know! :thumbsup:

(But seriously just in case you weren't sure that's sarcasm :nut: )

[SilverRex]

oil finally making a higher high today, hopefully this is the swing bulls are waiting for to start jumping back in.

once oil makes a counter move regardless of trend quite possibly back to 37+ area, I am incline to believe Meg should be able to get back to retesting 7-7.40 area

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Mibz

Books provide a logical flow of information and do a good job of reinforcing previously taught ideas so you don't read them once and then forget about them.

http://img1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20120928005800/adventuretimewithfinnandjake/images/7/76/Like_a_sir.png



Seriously though, I think it comes down to different strokes. The moral of the story is whether it's through book learnin, internet, or otherwise, there's no short cut to learning about investing/trading. Shitloads of reading and research is the best method, pick a media that works for you :dunno:

[cosmok]

Looking for the dollar to hold 1.3150 before the next wave up

[SilverRex]

oil just broke out from the 50MA and short term down trendline. This is the swing I am looking for, next up is to test and break above 37.50

http://i.imgur.com/urBSRit.png

[SilverRex]

as i posted yesterday, was expecting oil to rally and it did although it came mostly after hours but that is fine.

now oil is right up against the upper channel which would be another confirmation if it can break out.

even if oil drops, it doesnt matter, this is the swing off a support level just what I was looking for oil to resume it's up move targeting 42 follow by 44-45

Meg should reap well from this, may exit Meg if we get to 7+ area

http://i.imgur.com/cwHbcWv.png

for gold, its doing its thing and that is being weak for a few more weeks.

for biotech we will see if the up move in oil can spring life into this sector. I expect the current SM sell off is just another minor correction. once the correction is over, biotech...well everything will continue to march higher

[SilverRex]

failed to mention its Wednesday so the oil inventory report would make trading volatile but if oil drops I Think that is a buying opportunity, especially if oil breaks out of the channel and falls back to retest the channel,

[SilverRex]

labu has already broken this weeks high, hopefully those still playing this sector got back in at 53 xbi which would have been the perfect entry

[SilverRex]

positive oil report, inventory dropped 4.9M barrels, now let see if oil can break the down channel and create another up channel

[riander5]

Picked up SGY two days ago. Checked oils chart out and figured there was more upside than down right now. Hopefully she can run up to 40.

Still kicking myself for not getting into UGAZ 3 weeks ago. People should go take a look at NG's chart... when it bottoms around 1.60-1.80 its a safe play to get in for the bounce to 2-2.10 (safe being subjective). Massive gains to be had on UGAZ on that, and you can wait for daily MACD crossover plus RSI oversold to confirm the bounce. Wouldnt mind someone else looking at it and confirming. I missed both bounces over the last 3 months and I am still kicking myself. Even though we have lots of NG... I dont think 1.60 to 1.80 is a realistic price for it to ever hang around at.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Picked up SGY two days ago. Checked oils chart out and figured there was more upside than down right now. Hopefully she can run up to 40.

Still kicking myself for not getting into UGAZ 3 weeks ago. People should go take a look at NG's chart... when it bottoms around 1.60-1.80 its a safe play to get in for the bounce to 2-2.10 (safe being subjective). Massive gains to be had on UGAZ on that, and you can wait for daily MACD crossover plus RSI oversold to confirm the bounce. Wouldnt mind someone else looking at it and confirming. I missed both bounces over the last 3 months and I am still kicking myself. Even though we have lots of NG... I dont think 1.60 to 1.80 is a realistic price for it to ever hang around at.

yes natgas is another one that is in a bottoming process and could move. however my hands a full and I do not like focusing in on too many markets...thats just me.

[SilverRex]

oil confirmed breaking out of down channel. this should draw the bulls back in. Continuing to hold MEG for 7+

nearly took profit if the report was negative.

biotech looking great.

[riander5]

http://s24.postimg.org/uajyg40l1/Capture.jpg

Heres the chart.. note the two MACD crossovers after major oversold runs (MACD as confirmation of uptrend)

Son of a B

[bspot]

:love: LABU :love:

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bspot
:love: LABU :love:

Nice to see it try to break out again.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by cjblair


Nice to see it try to break out again.

damn it, I got out of LABU early at 34.5 and got into LABD for quick flip. That is not working out so far !

[SilverRex]

oil has hit over 37.7, if bears are to show up this is where they will try and fight. it is the 200 moving average on the 1 hour as well as the 38% retrace from the 42-35 sell off. It will be a test if bulls can over come this.. If unable to do so on first attempt, look for bulls to line up just under 37 as backtest of the breakout today.

FOMC minute coming out at noon, not sure if market will reverse or continue.

anyways after breaking key resistance, xbi at 55 and ibb at 274 should be the new support.

however the only problem is, is this wave 3 done? unless it gets extended, a wave 4 correction would bring price back down under 55/274 area but not under 53/264 or the wave count is begin to look corrective and in jeopardy. It will hinge on the stock market and possibly oil if it can make higher highs.

as long as 55/274 holds, I will continue to hold LABU until it hits my breakout target from the reverse head and shoulder pattern of around 60 xbi and 290 ibb

[bspot]

Called it a day on LABU at $36.

I'm a n00b at this stuff, so just using some play money while I try learn, but is there ever a reason to hold these leveraged ETFs for the medium term? Or should they really only be used for short term investing?

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bspot
Called it a day on LABU at $36.

I'm a n00b at this stuff, so just using some play money while I try learn, but is there ever a reason to hold these leveraged ETFs for the medium term? Or should they really only be used for short term investing?

It's been discussed a bunch in this thread. Short term only, the shares lose value over time, so unless you have a way of predicting things like the long term fall of oil (and held DWTI for like a year), you should stay away from leveraged funds for anything over a couple weeks IMO.

[SilverRex]

I am going to gamble considering another record volume in this sector that majority of the gains will hold up till close. and looking for a gap up tomorrow and I may exit LABU and start looking for pullback or scaling down my position.

I for one do not really like holding a 3x ETF for too long. Even if this sector has many more potential weeks of upside.

quite disappointing that oil stock is under performing despite a 5% run up in oil. Maybe this sector isnt convinced that oil has turned around and need another up day, anyways cant win them all.

[SilverRex]

so far biotech at a minimum has completed 5 waves up which in theory the run could end any day now and begin a wave 4 correction, however I am more incline to believe the waves are extended.. not too easy to count and may explain why the momentum is very strong at the moment.

if this is the case I expect a few more up days

http://i.imgur.com/walG7H4.png

[riander5]

I hope you are right silverex ^ good gains so far on LABU, no matter where the entry was last week! Good call

SGY having a big day for me today

[bspot]

:banghead:

Bought back into LABU.

Probably a very stupid day on my part, but the RSI is climbing like crazy, MACD trending up, if I miss a big gap-up I'll be sad, so back in I go lol

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bspot
:banghead:

Bought back into LABU.

Probably a very stupid day on my part, but the RSI is climbing like crazy, MACD trending up, if I miss a big gap-up I'll be sad, so back in I go lol

That's really ballsy. If I sold at $36, I'd be looking for a correction for re-entry. Especially with a 100 RSI at close.

[SilverRex]

remember I posted this count a while back.

I wish every trade was this easy.. apparently one can also be wrong, i am glad this traded worked out and to those who followed... I hope the run continues for everyone's sake regardless where you bought

http://i.imgur.com/lRGbzf7.png

[bspot]

Originally posted by cjblair


That's really ballsy.

You mean stupid ;)

Hopefully I get lucky and live to learn a lesson.

[SilverRex]

after a swing low and oil has broken out of the declining channel, it will be a test of support before we can go higher. recapturing above 37.77 was great first move as this is the 38% reverse retracement and where bears are trying to take a stand.

now that price is back below this area becoming resistance again, look for imo worse case scenario that price could very well retest the previous red breakout trendline in the 36.6-36.7 area. I do not expect price to head any lower than this.

bullish case would see price hover or hold above the 50/200 DMA on this chart which is around 37.3+ considering RSI 5 is oversold, I am looking for price to swing back up and make another move higher this week.

http://i.imgur.com/bzE9TJi.png

[SilverRex]

as for gold, still waiting for a bottom lower than 1207 to occur.

remember, due to the masses missing gold's run, there is still alot of panic buying even though the commercials area heavily shorting gold at the moment, which makes it a very erratic side way correction before the next big move --- up.

the current EW count suggest we are heading towards a wave B that should break above 1245 only to start selling off into wave C that should in theory take us below 1207.

Yes anything can happen and for all we know the bottom for gold could very well be in at 1207. if I wasnt playing the biotech sector and oil, I may have scaled back in a position. But that is how the market is, you cant win every trade. after all, if gold is starting a new bull market, then there will be plenty of opportunity.

http://i.imgur.com/7jgdsfN.png

[SilverRex]

as for biotech, it does appear it moves and gains the most strength when the entire stock market runs higher. Looking at DOW it nearly broke down from a rising channel only to re-capture back above it.

obviously dow needs to continue to move higher and even break the green neckline. The risk is to see price dive under 17550 and trigger a big sell off which imo could turn the biotech sector into significant correction.

http://i.imgur.com/1wXGPhH.png

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bspot


You mean stupid ;)

Hopefully I get lucky and live to learn a lesson.

Well, slow clap is due I suppose.

Although, I guess it depends on if/when you decide to sell. haha

[bspot]

Originally posted by cjblair


Well, slow clap is due I suppose.

Although, I guess it depends on if/when you decide to sell. haha

Saw RSI cross 70 and back out, then MACD start to head for a crossover and bailed at $38.50 :rofl:

So yeah, lesson still learned though. That could have sucked.

[SilverRex]

sold 80% of my labu to lock in profits. may buy back if it can correct 10% down

[bjstare]

I sold my XBI shortly after open today. I'll be looking for a correction as another entry point (possibly start a LABU/LABD strategy, but still don't know if I want to take on the risk).

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair
I sold my XBI shortly after open today. I'll be looking for a correction as another entry point (possibly start a LABU/LABD strategy, but still don't know if I want to take on the risk).

looking at the sweet spot xbi at 55 and ibb at 274

of course if biotech is indeed very bullish then it may turn around now, however saw big sell volume and also a reversal hammer on my 10 day chart. I pick the sweet spot

[riander5]

LABU profits locked in ;)

DLTR down again.. puts up!

[el_fefes]

Has anyone looked at silver? I've been reading that it might be set for a run up?

[SilverRex]

re added a small position at about 3 dollars lower than where I sold this morning in LABU. will save my other half if it heads lower

i also feel oil is close to finish the correction and 'should' begin a new wave up

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
re added a small position at about 3 dollars lower than where I sold this morning in LABU. will save my other half if it heads lower



Probably not a bad idea. I'm going to wait and see what XBI does if/when it hits the 200MA (5m) support.

[SilverRex]

looking at the nasdaq transportation, just another gauge of the stock market. it looks like the latest moves are corrective and once it breaks out (up) I expect biotech will make higher highs as well

http://i.imgur.com/p65UP4K.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
re added a small position at about 3 dollars lower than where I sold this morning in LABU. will save my other half if it heads lower

i also feel oil is close to finish the correction and 'should' begin a new wave up

Nice timing. Were you watching 15min chart? I cant see signs for anything that would have triggered my to buy back in other than 15min chart.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
re added a small position at about 3 dollars lower than where I sold this morning in LABU. will save my other half if it heads lower

i also feel oil is close to finish the correction and 'should' begin a new wave up

I've traded LABU/LABD 5 times today for small profits each time.
now i'm in labu with tight stops. Hoping it hits 40 today then I'll get out and wait.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by cjblair


Well, slow clap is due I suppose.

Although, I guess it depends on if/when you decide to sell. haha

remember, most indicator are usually lagging, I just have to go with the feel. If you look at the chart I posted yesterday, price was ready to swing a higher high then a small wave iv correction, then resume momentum.

so far it is playing out like the counts... so if things continue to play out, I expect a higher high follow by a bigger correction back down to 55.

im only 50/50 on this trade hence I kept some ammo for a lower entry


http://i.imgur.com/walG7H4.png

[SilverRex]

well the jobless claim seems to be good news for the market. at least there shouldnt be any downside surprise today. will see if oil and SM can reverse course. I still have my eyes on xbi 55 as it can produce an abc wave lower than today's low under 56.

[riander5]

SilverRex do you have a job or do you just trade?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
SilverRex do you have a job or do you just trade?

sadly I have job, this is just a side thing I do on my spare time as I pop in and out near my desk.

[bspot]

Going to have less time to stare at a screen for a while, so dumped my play money I was farting around with LABU/LABD into MEG for a medium term hold. Got in at $6.05.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Going to have less time to stare at a screen for a while, so dumped my play money I was farting around with LABU/LABD into MEG for a medium term hold. Got in at $6.05.

good pick up on Meg if oil remains above today's low. I am hoping now that oil has backtested the breakout trendline (see my oil chart today) it will now be ready to make a move towards 39-40 area.

[SilverRex]

oil is looking great to end the week. after making a swing low and as I expected, made a back test under 37 (retesting the red trendline) price has since rebounded nicely. As simple as this technical backtest is, for those that do not care or do not know, I personally love this kind of confirmation for a breakout simply because it offers a lower risk setup as often then not, breaks outs can fail and one can get trapped in higher prices rather than buying lower.

50/200 DMA moving average has crossed up so as it stands now, oil is back on the bullish table. Bear's last stand will be heavily fortified in and around 39-39.5, if oil cannot convincingly break above this area, price may head back down next week.

While oil should and can rise from here above 42+ however an alt count that oil is simply moving into a 'B' wave up and yet another 'C' wave down towards or lower than 35 will be at the back of my mind if this rally is unsustainable.

regardless I too added a 3rd position in Meg right at 6.02, hopefully Meg makes a good rally today and I can roll into the weekend on a high note.

http://i.imgur.com/ajiyFen.png

[bigbadboss101]

Looks good ^

[SilverRex]

the SM looks too to open up this morning, using the DOW for glues, in short I expect the latest up and down is a corrective move that once it is finished, it will make a higher high. Key would be to break the immediate neckline (red) I imagine if this happens today, biotech will be on steroids since this sector after making a big run this week had to consolidate into a flat correction (yesterday) I suspect it may have enough strength to make a new high on it's own, having a strong market surge will only ignite the buying

while I have re-entered a smaller position back in LABU yesterday I am saving cash on the side line and eye an even better support in the xbi/ibb 55/274 area (around 32.5-33 labu). Even if this sector makes higher, I am still happy to ride the wave and scaling back my position to lock in my gains (is a great risk management strategy). the position I sold yesterday netted me 58% :) I cant imagine those who bought lower if you were lucky to catch it has since ran up nearly 95%

http://i.imgur.com/oZSvhnv.png

[SilverRex]

a quick look at XBI as you can see, we are in a strong up channel. looks like it was wise to sell in the top of the channel and buy at the bottom. which was one reason why I had to sell yesterday and took a chance hoping to buy back lower. i expect this wave III will continue until this channel breaks then a wave IV correction will begin (quite possibly seeing the current level as support) in a few weeks.

http://i.imgur.com/xGwKJeG.png

[SilverRex]

after posting my oil chart and expecting price to break in to the 39s, it has already done this in pre-market trading. Since this is a critical resistance area, I am going to sell half of my MEG position if it opens up strong. After oil break the previous high 38.28, this should become our short term support. breaking this would hint a more bearish view or that alt count that I was talking about earlier

[Vanish3d]

I got caught in LABD at 39... pre market shows it at ~36.... stupid move !!

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I got caught in LABD at 39... pre market shows it at ~36.... stupid move !!

i dont have the guts do play both side, clearly labu is in an uptrend, and your best bet was to short at the top of the channel... as well it seems to surge earlier in the session then falling mid day.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I got caught in LABD at 39... pre market shows it at ~36.... stupid move !!

So, did you have a little patience? Back above $39 now haha.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by cjblair


So, did you have a little patience? Back above $39 now haha.

I can't believe I walked away with a small loss, sold it for 38.5 on it's way up. I could've made a little profit but i was happy with the small loss !

[SilverRex]

not sure if biotech is just waiting for the entire SM to breakout technically, so far it appears DOW is about ready to breakout and if so biotech should follow

exited 75% of MEG to lock in my gains as I gambled and jumped in with both feet yesterday lol too fearful to be all loaded up...

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex

exited 75% of MEG to lock in my gains as I gambled and jumped in with both feet yesterday lol too fearful to be all loaded up...

I bought a bunch of POU early this week. Nice to see it jump a bit. I'm looking to hold until it pops up towards $10 again (or buy more if it drops to $4).

I just can't help but think that XBI is running out of steam - I don't think it's going to stay in this channel much longer, and don't want to get caught with my pants down. 30m MACD is looking like we might see it drop a bit (and is relatively reliable indicator). I'm going to wait for a bit of a pullback before getting back in.

[el_fefes]

SilverRex, did you end up selling MEG? I'm holding UWTI right now... not sure if I should sell with this pop...

[riander5]

Originally posted by el_fefes
SilverRex, did you end up selling MEG? I'm holding UWTI right now... not sure if I should sell with this pop...

When did you get in? Id sell some profits... although UWTI and DWTI are volatile, getting 15-20% in the right direction is rare

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
SilverRex, did you end up selling MEG? I'm holding UWTI right now... not sure if I should sell with this pop...

i sold 75% of my position, something that I Should have done this week and I could have caught the swings... but thats how it goes as soon as I sell I bet it will hit 7.00 (my average price was 6.12)

anyways I made more with my biotech this week, happily enjoying a great weekend with no stress im back to 80% cash

[SilverRex]

DOW having a difficult time to breakout, its on the cusp, perhaps its not ready to do so until next week, which may explain why biotech is struggling. oil also made some big moves and could use a minor correction. this may give us some space to reload next week

[el_fefes]

Originally posted by riander5


When did you get in? Id sell some profits... although UWTI and DWTI are volatile, getting 15-20% in the right direction is rare

Got in at 18.85

Decided to sell - got out at 23.18 ~20% in one day is pretty good.

Still holding some MEG. My avg price is 6.19.

[SilverRex]

well xbi is right at the bottom of the channel. IF there is any bullish charges left, this should be the most likely area to rally towards a wave 5 finish towards 60 otherwise I expect we have entered a big wave 4 correction that will take us down to 55 and possibly even to 53

http://i.imgur.com/DOU3caq.png

[Vanish3d]

Just broke the downward channel.
Smart time to get out of LABU and risk it bounce back?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Just broke the downward channel.
Smart time to get out of LABU and risk it bounce back?

well we are at our first major support 55/274

I am will try add another position here with a tight stop to see if there is life here

biotech needs to recapture the channel quickly so we will see if this is a shake out false move or not.

[Vanish3d]

I guess losing on this trade was inevitable. I managed to get out of LABD at a small loss and get into LABU and now i'm down!

I get what you mean by 'gut's to trade both.... timing needs to be perfect or you get double screwed !! It worked all last week so i guess I got cocky. Lesson learned

[SilverRex]

talk about the skin of ones teeth, xbi swung down to 55.10 and the previous peak is 55.09. In EW terms, if this run is to remain in a wave 3, price needs to hold above 55.09, looks like im not the only one taking a chance at the current level. This is quite the test of will must I say

[SilverRex]

focusing on the lower time frame can be very noisy and complicated. looking at the bigger picture everything in an uptrend looks intact. while the current wave 3 isnt being as extended or bullish as I first thought, it remains in a bigger rising channel and as long as 55 holds I expect one more quick wave v of 3 hitting the rounded 60 target to take place before a bigger correction which should imo give up at least 38% of the recent run up.

the entire trend must remain above 52.50 to keep the momentum technically and trend to remain valid.

http://i.imgur.com/LoFTXUo.png

[bjstare]

I'm expecting XBI to continue to pull back if it closes lower today. MA(50,5) just crossed below MA(200,5), again a historically pretty reliable indicator for this fund. Having said that, I'm not about to go buy LABD, given the extended upward trend we're in (as sen in all of SRex's posts)