Official Short-term Investments Thread

[riander5]

DLTR going lower. It is approaching a major support line from the past 1-1.5 months it needs to bust through. Ascending wedge has been showing waning volume as it has progressed so im hoping for a move lower!

NKE still doing nothing for me. The only stock in my portfolio i didnt do analysis on and im getting punished for it! haha serves me right

[SilverRex]

some good buying in the last 15m in biotech, probably late technical buyers making sure it close the week above the key areas (as I mention earlier)

weekly chart didnt look damaged at all, looking good for next week. Have a great weekend folks


P/S

just throwing up a quick chart to grind your knuckles. I am not a fan wave person but look at how xbi did today. broke thru 3 fan waves all the while making higher lows.

how can you ignore the 55.09 support? looking forward to another good week for biotech on Monday.

http://i.imgur.com/y6Luwz7.png

[Vanish3d]

I hope you are right. I held on to my LABU.
I'm basically all in with 80% of my portfolio. Let's gamble !

[riander5]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I hope you are right. I held on to my LABU.
I'm basically all in with 80% of my portfolio. Let's gamble !

Time to get your f*cking yacht bro

http://s8.postimg.org/4qhyckrfp/Capture.jpg

[SilverRex]

For gold, if you look at the last chart I posted, price has been moving as expected. while it has not poke above 1244 (X), the expectation is to see price slightly breakout (false move I think) then headed down. with COT extremely bearish and the entire world loading up on miners, I expect the opposite will occur, while I am quite surprised at how strong the miners are moving lately (with Yamana and Kinross making new highs again) I am still waiting for a May Low before jumping back in for a medium term hold.

Another case for gold going bearish is the recent moves in the last 4-5 days looks very corrective as it continues to over lap the previous high, in a good solid uptrend, previous high should become support and should not be broken.

still looking for gold to retest price under 1200 and reset bullish sentiment back in to bearishness then it will be time to buy again.

http://i.imgur.com/7Ak8XPI.png

My current interpretation of gdx (gold miners)

http://i.imgur.com/MFQqsYz.png

[SilverRex]

For oil, how many was scared to buy oil when oil was at 35? while it went slightly lower than what I expected at 36, been waiting for a greater than 4+ dollar correction after it completed it's 5 waves up to 42. This was obviously a much needed correction. Energy stocks went side ways during this correction and was a sign that oil's move from 26-42 may be real and is our first leg up.

however much interpretation is required and key movements lies ahead next week. After oil broke out of the down channel follow by a retest which was text book, the latest move should be seen as 5 waves up.

Bullish case would be to see oil make a minor higher high than friday then begin a similar correction like wave 1 to 2 but price must remain above 38.28 in order for this count to be valid. once wave 4 correction finishes, I expect price to make yet another 5 waves higher bringing us back to 42.

However I am keeping an open mind in an alternative count which means the 42 to 35 correction could still only be seen as a larger degree wave A down and what we are seeing now is wave B counter trend. If that is the case, characteristics would be that 38.28 will be broken to the downside and we begin another 5 waves down to price lower than 35. (for those unfamiliar with EW and are lazy to study, wave ABC are often known as corrections and in a healthy bull market a typical pattern consist 5 waves up and 3 waves down hence ABC is 3 waves. There are many different patterns and wave counts if price only moves 3 waves up often that signals it is counter trend rally and lower price is expected..etc)

Obviously if oil has more downside in the short term, that might signal the stock market still has another week or two to grind sideways or lower before the next move up, may not bold well for us biotech holders because that means a longer correction is on the table before biotech makes a higher high.

http://i.imgur.com/7U1ks5i.png

[SilverRex]

Last chart on the DOW

so DOW could not break out from the neckline (circled) as a result biotech had no momentum to run to a higher high. At this time I am expecting two scenarios.

With a newly revised up channel just above the 200DMA, the bullish scenario is that we will breakout next week, and begin a 5 wave structure making a higher high.

Recent activity (similar to gold) looks corrective in nature. Meaning gold is rising but looks corrective which may dictate future price action about to turn back down and DOW is the opposite while it is heading lower and lower it is corrective in nature pointing to the possibility that eventually price will turn back up leading to new highs.

However considering oil took 2 weeks to correct, it is completely normal if the stock market will take another week to consolidate and even headed lower denoted in red ABC pattern and even test the 200 DMA right at 17400.

key is to watch how price react to the false break out high marked wave 1 (green), since if it breaks above this and only to turn back down, this may enable biotech to make a higher high to complete wave 3 then follow by a week long correctional wave 4 then everything will then go up together.

http://i.imgur.com/dJoqF8y.png

[SilverRex]

ok last chart.. really

looking at IBB which is really the same as XBI, not much change since the last count. As you can see we are currently in a small wave iv correction, once this is completed I suspect it will make another move to a higher high which again will be stopped by the upper rising channel and should enter a longer and steeper (from the new high) correction back down.

Then price will again make another 5 waves up to yet another high follow by yet another larger degree wave 4.

If this doesnt confuse you I do not know how to put it, yes we are about to entered into a series of wave iv so in a nut shell, every time biotech strucks a new high, it will likely continue to correct. That means there will be plenty of opportunity to trade the swings in the next few weeks.

Over all in order for the trend to remain pointed upwards, price (in IBB) must stay above previous wave 1 highs notably at 274 and especially more important 264.

as long as we are above these levels, I feel market remains in a strong up trending market.

http://i.imgur.com/toeVCKI.png

[SilverRex]

selling rest of my Meg. will wait for oil to correct.

DOW breaking out of the neckline as expected. now will see if this rally is sustainable or we get another week of consolidation and to grind lower from here.

[el_fefes]

Got out of MEG too.

How do you guys deal with the whole "sell in May go away" thing? Medium term holds? Is it actually something noticeable?

[SilverRex]

a quick look at the US dollar, I expect the dollar will soon be ready to make a reverse here as we are near critical support. For the coming months/years either dollar will be moving sideways or the worse case scenario is a collapse. Either way, the current sell off is what's fueling gold and preventing the gold sector from correcting lower, I feel once the dollar begins to counter move (backup) for the next 1-2 months, it should 'I hope' that the real correction will begin in the sector, especially many miners have struck new 52 week highs recently, a late investor could be trapped. I applaud the miner's resiliency and will only have to wait out until the typical low in May comes around to re-enter into this sector

http://i.imgur.com/9x5gSIZ.png

[SilverRex]

looks like biotech is moving into a larger degree wave 4 instead of making a higher high immediately. counter has been revised, while 55.09 has been breached, critical support is at 53. anything below 53 would question the recently run up and could be viewed as corrective. Hopefully not. so I am still expecting we are in a wave IV correction and once a bottom has been struct (possibly now) to see a new 5 waves towards the upper channel again.

http://i.imgur.com/rpV3CD8.png

[SilverRex]

on the lower time frame, price has been moving in a descending wedge, (which 'should' be bullish) but until it breaksout (preferably above 56) it cannot be confirmed. We are quite close to the all important 53 area. so we ought to be extremely close to a bottom if not already bottomed

http://i.imgur.com/4CP3dCe.png

[asp integra]

Crazy to UA move so much in the wrong direction. Spieth losing the masters really hurts

[bjstare]

Originally posted by asp integra
Crazy to UA move so much in the wrong direction. Spieth losing the masters really hurts

Not really, that's only a small factor IMO. That whole sector is off nearly 2% today, possibly attributed to weak sales for the second quarter in a row, all across the board? Additionally, you're probably aware they just split, which can have a negative affect on short term price of a stock. IMO, Spieth losing was just salt in the wound, I don't think it was a large contributor to the pullback we're seeing.

:dunno:

[riander5]

Originally posted by riander5
DLTR going lower. It is approaching a major support line from the past 1-1.5 months it needs to bust through. Ascending wedge has been showing waning volume as it has progressed so im hoping for a move lower!

NKE still doing nothing for me. The only stock in my portfolio i didnt do analysis on and im getting punished for it! haha serves me right

DLTR broke my big trendline - lets see a big drop!

Got some XPO august 31 calls today as well.

UA dragging my poor nike down hurt. My XPO / DLTR is just to make up for that bad nike call!

[SilverRex]

I am very impressed how the miners are performing despite gold unable to make a higher high. which was not expected but still at least what that is telling us is that the gold bull market is for real and it will be a very rewarding year for this sector. if buying at the previous level was already difficult, buying at the current level is even more dangerous. I will continue to be patient and wait for a low entry in May. (not to mention it appears the US dollar may have just put in a reversal signal hence I also expect this will hammer gold's advance)

oil has completed imo its 5 waves up and I am expecting a correction to soon take place but until it reverse it does and can have momentum to even retest 42 before it falls.

biotech, still waiting for the correction to end as we are near very important support 53 (XBI), it appears it is waiting for something to happen, most likely the stock market to make new highs as it is consolidating. I can only imagine once this consolidation or correction is finished everything will continue to move higher together lifting biotech to higher highs as well.

[SilverRex]

as you can see until biotech breakout of the channel it will remain under selling pressure. I added my 2nd position in yesterday and because I had taken profit last week, holding this isnt that bad since my original position was labu at 24.29, and by buying back lower, that brings down my original position down to 20 which is the low back in mid march. So I can ride out this correction using my profits alone.

http://i.imgur.com/IjHo4wQ.png

[SilverRex]

finally buying volume started to pick up shortly after it got near support. hopefully the bottom has been struck

[SilverRex]

So let see if this breakout is for real..

http://i.imgur.com/C5uNLWo.png

[topazdude]

Do you guys use USD brokerage accounts for these cross boarder transactions or do you make these USD trades through your CAD accounts?

[SilverRex]

apparently I read some sort of new oil freeze rumor between russia and saudi is causing the oil strength

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
apparently I read some sort of new oil freeze rumor between russia and saudi is causing the oil strength

Russia and Saudi apparently have agreed to terms..but who actually knows lol.

On another note...

BTE :clap:

[bjstare]

Originally posted by topazdude
Do you guys use USD brokerage accounts for these cross boarder transactions or do you make these USD trades through your CAD accounts?

USD TFSA

I used to do it all in CAD, but it's stupid. Your margins automatically are reduced by a few percent off the get go, because you get hosed with exchange rate fees every time you trade.

And on another note.. POU :clap: haha

[sabad66]

Originally posted by topazdude
Do you guys use USD brokerage accounts for these cross boarder transactions or do you make these USD trades through your CAD accounts?
every trading brokerage in Canada gives you a USD and CAD "sub-account". Most people transfer CAD into the trading account, then convert some of it within the trading account into their USD account. Then you can buy USD stocks from the USD account. If you don't convert before, usually the brokerage will automatically convert for you.

Another option is to transfer USD directly into the USD account in the trading account. (if you already have USD ready to go in a USD chequing acct)

[bjstare]

Originally posted by SilverRex
So let see if this breakout is for real..

http://i.imgur.com/C5uNLWo.png

Well it's certainly trying.

I'm waiting for the 50/200 MA crossover to happen (and stick) before I believe it.

[realazy]

Originally posted by topazdude
Do you guys use USD brokerage accounts for these cross boarder transactions or do you make these USD trades through your CAD accounts?



Originally posted by sabad66

every trading brokerage in Canada gives you a USD and CAD "sub-account". Most people transfer CAD into the trading account, then convert some of it within the trading account into their USD account. Then you can buy USD stocks from the USD account. If you don't convert before, usually the brokerage will automatically convert for you.

Another option is to transfer USD directly into the USD account in the trading account. (if you already have USD ready to go in a USD chequing acct)

One more option is to buy the US stocks on margin and settle the money after whichever way you choose. (This is the default option in Questrade, Questrade has really shitty margin rates though.)

[topazdude]

Thanks for the replies guys, seems like the best route is to use USD brokerage.
Guess no better time than now to convert some CAD-USD with the dollar at almost a 1 year high.

[sabad66]

Originally posted by topazdude
Thanks for the replies guys, seems like the best route is to use USD brokerage.

i don't think you understood. I would not suggest opening an account with a US brokerage (i doubt they would even let you unless you're a US resident/citizen). YOu need to use a CA brokerage (like any bank's/questrade/qtrade) which has a USD account included.

[bball2]

I use interactive brokers; close to zero commissions for large forex conversions (was like $3 for converting $10k CAD to USD). :thumbsup:

I bought a bunch of US stocks in the past with my Canadian RRSP account, got pretty much dinged 5% after buying and selling with the conversions.

[BavarianBeast]

Curious - if you guys have/are doing pretty good in the market and you just recently purchased a house, would you;
a) buy the house with 100% cash and enjoy not paying interest on a mortgage?
b) Put 50% down, and keep 50% in the market to keep payments/interest down?
c) 20% down on the house and try and make as much money as possible in the market?

Not looking for advice as I've made my decision but just curious what others would do.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Curious - if you guys have/are doing pretty good in the market and you just recently purchased a house, would you;
a) buy the house with 100% cash and enjoy not paying interest on a mortgage?
b) Put 50% down, and keep 50% in the market to keep payments/interest down?
c) 20% down on the house and try and make as much money as possible in the market?

Not looking for advice as I've made my decision but just curious what others would do.

no advice, but based on my own situation I pick c

[bspot]

For me it would depend on how long that market success has been. If it's been a decade, I'm more confident and maybe go with C.

If it's a year, I'm going A for sure.

[Vanish3d]

d) Pay house cash - get HELOC - Use part (or all) of HELOC when I feel it would be a good return on investment.

[Rarasaurus]

e) 5% down. Pay CMHC. Double the additional 15% on the markets.

[bjstare]

If I was paying interest to a bank? a) for sure. I don't like the principle of giving them money if I don't have to.

Second choice would be option b) for similar reasons. Also, it's good to be diversified (between market investments/house)

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
d) Pay house cash - get HELOC - Use part (or all) of HELOC when I feel it would be a good return on investment.

+1

[Feruk]

Originally posted by SilverRex
no advice, but based on my own situation I pick c
+1


Originally posted by Rarasaurus
e) 5% down. Pay CMHC. Double the additional 15% on the markets.
You forgot to add "give up right to no-recourse mortgage because I will always be able to pay and never worry about exposing every other asset I own to liquidation by mortgage brokerage."

[Manhattan]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Curious - if you guys have/are doing pretty good in the market and you just recently purchased a house, would you;
a) buy the house with 100% cash and enjoy not paying interest on a mortgage?
b) Put 50% down, and keep 50% in the market to keep payments/interest down?
c) 20% down on the house and try and make as much money as possible in the market?

Not looking for advice as I've made my decision but just curious what others would do.

99% of people should go with A or B. C if you really know what you're doing and market is ripe/cheap i.e. post crash.

Choice between A or B would likely depend on stage in life. If you're young and working probably B to diversify and save up for a retirement portfolio or whatever you may want. A if you're close to retirement age when cashflow and managing risk is more important.

[BavarianBeast]

Thanks for the discussion. Good to hear what other people think of the situation.

[Feruk]

Originally posted by Manhattan
99% of people should go with A or B.
Um, what? That's terribly inaccurate. Most people can't afford A or B, and most definitely shouldn't go with A or B even if the could.

[BavarianBeast]

I guess I forgot to clarify. I meant to have the discussion with the impression that you could afford to pay for 100% of the house with cash.

[Manhattan]

It was quite clear. Why would you ask if you should pay for house with 100% cash if you didn't have the cash. :nut:

[max_boost]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Curious - if you guys have/are doing pretty good in the market and you just recently purchased a house, would you;
a) buy the house with 100% cash and enjoy not paying interest on a mortgage?
b) Put 50% down, and keep 50% in the market to keep payments/interest down?
c) 20% down on the house and try and make as much money as possible in the market?

Not looking for advice as I've made my decision but just curious what others would do.

I went with B because I came up about $60k short for option 1. I figured how hard could it be to beat the mortgage interest? Well I'm 10 months in and only break even. :nut: :dunno: That tells you how sloppy of an investor I am.

I'm just gonna save up some money and pay off the damn thing and live with option A.

Given how things are going, C isn't even an option haha

[ercchry]

Depends on what percentage of portfolio we are talking about to buy out house in cash, primary property paid out is always a good thing in a country where you can't write off interest on it... But not worth while erasing years of work building up a successful portfolio.... Since you're probably crushing it as a return vs savings on interest

[BavarianBeast]

For arguments sake, lets say the home you are buying is $800k.

You currently have $200k in cash, and another $800k invested into stocks which do not currently have any significant gain or loss..

[max_boost]

Props baller. Props. :bigpimp: :bigpimp: :bigpimp:

[bball2]

Based on the 5 year fixed rates available right now, would definitely look at minimizing the down payment on any new house purchase.

[Euro838]

Originally posted by max_boost


I went with B because I came up about $60k short for option 1. I figured how hard could it be to beat the mortgage interest? Well I'm 10 months in and only break even. :nut: :dunno: That tells you how sloppy of an investor I am.

I'm just gonna save up some money and pay off the damn thing and live with option A.

Given how things are going, C isn't even an option haha

@MaxBoost - LOL, you could only come up with $1,940,000? :bigpimp:

I would choose A whenever possible, there's just a level of comfort of not having monthly payments for un-serviced debt that is very satisfying. I have been taking money out of rentals and stuff just to pay off my own principal property.

[ercchry]

Yeah, probably do C) then... 20% down would leave you over $800k to invest and a $3k mortgage.... So what? Like 4% ROI covers mortgage vs the 20% you'd need to make on the $200k if you bought in cash to make the same amount

[dandia89]

interest rates are so low, even a long term index fund could probably cover it

[Manhattan]

Keep in mind you're asking this type of question:

1) On beyond where HELOC is the norm and encouraged
2) In a a short-term investment/day trading thread

The answers you get might be a bit biased ;)

[SilverRex]

quick thoughts on biotech today.

nice reversal day, after all I dont think ive seen biotech tank more than 4 straight days without a bounce.

Is it all up from here? i personally hope so since this correction has been drawn out as far as it could and as long as it did, any more would be quite discouraging and painful (for anyone who jumped in late). It came so close to key support by hitting 53.42 (critical support is 53) now given biotech's track record it is not completely impossible for price to move up as only a counter trend rally and then back down and hit a slightly lower low under 53.42 (very similar to what happen in late March) so keep this in mind, I would only fret if I end up giving up all my gains which means LABU needs to break below 20.00, doesnt feel like it would do that unless the entire move is a giant counter correction and the SM is ready to roll over.

[BavarianBeast]

It's kind of why I asked the question here to be honest! I wanted to gather some opinions from those who may have a higher risk tolerance than the ones who would always choose option A (which is of course the most encouraged). Cheers.

[Disoblige]

Should have dumped it all into HGU and held lol.
Would have been up 30% :rofl:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Disoblige
Should have dumped it all into HGU and held lol.
Would have been up 30% :rofl:

hou was better 39% in 1 week

[riander5]

Originally posted by riander5


DLTR broke my big trendline - lets see a big drop!

Got some XPO august 31 calls today as well.

UA dragging my poor nike down hurt. My XPO / DLTR is just to make up for that bad nike call!

DLTR up 1.5% - hurts my calls a bit but still up 25% from original post (puts purchased April 4)

XPO massive day bouncing off its trendline aided by being overbought on 1d, 4h, 1h, RSI. Bigger volume on its upmoves than downmoves hopefully helps its uptrend. Calls purchased yesterday up around 20% taking average of bid/ask (not loads of OI on this stock like a bluechip or tech stocks)

[ercchry]

So as a huge gamble I bought a few options of the national bank of Greece last year (2 year expiry) ... It was like $200 worth or something, dunno now since they de-listed and it moved to the pink sheets.... Buuuutttt today I logged in and my usd was showing a $10k profit!! I almost pooped a little till I realized no one was buying... :rofl:

they eventually went from $10 to $0.04... Was pretty happy for a couple seconds though haha

[Sugarphreak]

...

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Any good lithium mining or supplier stocks out there?

LAC might be worth a look

[SilverRex]

looks like DOW breakout is for real and it rallied off the rising channel perfectly. this channel was seen many post ago and I expected once the correction ends, it will resume upward with a chance to test the all time highs.

hopefully this means well for biotech as I will be holding for a 5 wave target up towards 60-62 XBI

http://i.imgur.com/Bf0iw4u.png

[el_fefes]

Originally posted by Sugarphreak
Any good lithium mining or supplier stocks out there?

If you're a gambling man look at CRE.v on the venture. Not a producer but it's an exploration (rare earth metals lithium/tantalum) company with properties in Quebec.

[SilverRex]

for oil, not much has changed. for medium term we will have a high probability to hit 50 if not even 60 dollar oil in the coming weeks. but for the short term, it is looking for a top, depending on the oil inventory report (assuming news is to the upside) it can still produce yet another higher high. considering it has already broken the previous high at 41.9, technically it is ready to challenge even higher prices.

remember a while ago I said if and when oil can close the month of March at around 38, it would open up price in the 60s? well looks like it is happening.

the latest oil surge will only be an issue if price falls below 38, until then I am expecting it to top follow by a correction down to 40 or slightly under 40 to reset then charging higher.

http://i.imgur.com/G5DFjxT.png

[SilverRex]

lastly on gold, I am still expecting price to at a minimum hit below 1207 and preferably retest the 200 DMA. Yes if gold is indeed bullish, there is an alt count that could push price slightly above 1283 as a bull trap still, that is why in a baby bull market, I would not think about shorting.

http://i.imgur.com/jq63kUn.png

[bspot]

Prepare for n00b questions:

I'm super exposed to oil due to work, so I have a lot of long term holdings. In the meantime, I dumped my short term holdings with play money on Friday (MEG).

I'm looking to pick a good spot for re-entry.

I use virtual brokers, and while it does good enough for my charting needs for equities, I have no clue how I can chart the price of oil in a similar manner to try apply my rookie technical analysis too.

Any suggestions, both on a charting platform or for re-entry advice?

I've been learning tons here, so thanks to everyone for their posts.

[Marsh]

Originally posted by bspot
Prepare for n00b questions:

I'm super exposed to oil due to work, so I have a lot of long term holdings. In the meantime, I dumped my short term holdings with play money on Friday (MEG).

I'm looking to pick a good spot for re-entry.

I use virtual brokers, and while it does good enough for my charting needs for equities, I have no clue how I can chart the price of oil in a similar manner to try apply my rookie technical analysis too.

Any suggestions, both on a charting platform or for re-entry advice?

I've been learning tons here, so thanks to everyone for their posts.

Oil has been trending up for the last 6 weeks due to the proposed meeting between OPEC and Russia in Doha this weekend. These guys haven't been able to agree on shit for almost their entire existence, so im betting oil is going to tank next week once these guys announce that they have been unable to reach any agreement on supply cuts.

Disclosure: I was long oil and a few energy stocks since Feb, have exited all long positions and am entering a few shorts this week in anticipation of oil dropping like a rock in the next few weeks.

Edit: So to answer your original question, next week or week after would be a good point to get back into energy stocks (assuming my above call is correct.)

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by Marsh


Oil has been trending up for the last 6 weeks due to the proposed meeting between OPEC and Russia in Doha this weekend. These guys haven't been able to agree on shit for almost their entire existence, so im betting oil is going to tank next week once these guys announce that they have been unable to reach any agreement on supply cuts.

Disclosure: I was long oil and a few energy stocks since Feb, have exited all long positions and am entering a few shorts this week in anticipation of oil dropping like a rock in the next few weeks.

Edit: So to answer your original question, next week or week after would be a good point to get back into energy stocks (assuming my above call is correct.)

They don't have to agree on anything IMO.

I don't think it's going to tank if nothing comes out of the meeting either.

I suspect nothing happens at the meeting, oil has a $2-5 correction next week and then continues to rise throughout the summer.

OPEC is just going to kick the can to keep prices here. The difference with this meeting vs previous ones is this is an "Emergency Meeting", which for the past year and a half has not happened yet. That in itself says something is bigger at play.

Just my thoughts

[SilverRex]

^

+1

any negative news or sudden price whipsaw will only mean opportunity for oil bulls...

[bjstare]

Bought a round of LABU this morning. Will probably hold into early next week (pending unforseen drops). I'll probably set a stop around $32.

[SilverRex]

as I was expecting, after oil made a higher high it corrected a bit, not as much as i hoped and certainly it can go higher from here. (however my ideal entry is around 39.5-40.00)

I probably wont jump in with both feet until after the weekend and see technically where we are at. but the trend is up folks.

gold, nothing to write about still waiting for it to go under 1207

stock market looks good to make a run higher and test the first mental barrier at 18k DOW

[SilverRex]

a quick chart up on Meg.

after breaking the previous high above 7.38, I expect the next round of target will be back to the 200DMA in the 9-10 dollar range.

of course oil needs to maintain a bullish trend getting back to first 44-45 follow by 50+

after the initial breakout, MEG has came back to retest the 7.00 area as support. obviously there are a couple of gaps under 7.00 namely at 6.75 and even as low as 6.40 which could happen if any negative oil news hits the market, but for the time being I see these are good buying opportunity. I will only be concern if price gets back below the 50DMA at 5.64,

opened a small position in the low 7s targeting 9-10. will buy more if it dips into the high or mid 6s

http://i.imgur.com/oePzErE.png

[SilverRex]

updated oil chart.

if oil breaks higher than sub wave i at 42.15 then wave V towards 44-45 will be underway.

the only alt count is if it comes back down making a lower low into the 40s which I prefer so that I can buy more meg.to

http://i.imgur.com/5YA4o7u.png

[SilverRex]

another chart I have been watching closely is the DOW transportation, if and when this chart is healthy it only means well for the rest of the equities market, as you can see we have been in correction mode a very text book ABC wave, ended and now breaking towards a new high. everything (except gold) should be moving higher for the next couple of weeks.

http://i.imgur.com/Uj9Nxe0.png

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
quick thoughts on biotech today.

nice reversal day, after all I dont think ive seen biotech tank more than 4 straight days without a bounce.

Is it all up from here? i personally hope so since this correction has been drawn out as far as it could and as long as it did, any more would be quite discouraging and painful (for anyone who jumped in late). It came so close to key support by hitting 53.42 (critical support is 53) now given biotech's track record it is not completely impossible for price to move up as only a counter trend rally and then back down and hit a slightly lower low under 53.42 (very similar to what happen in late March) so keep this in mind, I would only fret if I end up giving up all my gains which means LABU needs to break below 20.00, doesnt feel like it would do that unless the entire move is a giant counter correction and the SM is ready to roll over.

So, bounced pretty nicely off of $53.42, what are you looking for next? LABU has been making me smile the last few days.

Edit: Increased my MEG position at 6.91

[asp integra]

Jumped on more MEG today myself, will grab even more depending on the next few days.

[SilverRex]

oil could not break 42.15 yesterday to confirm continuation to move higher so the alt count with a lower low towards 39.50-40.00 was the real play here.

we are just a notch above the 38% retrace level under 40 as well as the 200DMA, and also at the bottom of the descending channel.

looking to pickup or add to my Meg, Meg would be nice to fill the gap near 6.75

http://i.imgur.com/Iulrsgv.png

[SilverRex]

oil tested the 200DMA right at 40, adding another position in Meg at 6.79

[BavarianBeast]

'Cmon ARIA. Lets go $12 so I can gtfo for once and for all.

[SilverRex]

quick chart on DOW, as I was noting the last few post on this that it was indeed a correctional move this month and we have since broken out. as long as we remain in this rising channel, based on counts I expect we are taking a mild breather correctional abc wave follow by a strong sub wave 3 of 5 that should in theory take us to test if not break the all time high.

I am going to gamble and say that if and when this happens, biotech will too make new highs, still holding LABU towards 40-42 short term target XBI 60+ IBB 290+

http://i.imgur.com/yy4V5ve.png

[bspot]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
'Cmon ARIA. Lets go $12 so I can gtfo for once and for all.

I'm still holding too.. haha. Almost back even!

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by bspot


I'm still holding too.. haha. Almost back even!

Haha, fingers crossed! I think there is a fair bit of momentum right now, although I always think that and the stock goes into a lull for a few months. Frustrating, I've held and acquired more shares over 2 years thinking this thing would be bought out. I'm beginning to get very impatient, but I know the minute I sell, the company will sell for a 200% premium or something. :banghead:

[riander5]

Originally posted by riander5


DLTR up 1.5% - hurts my calls a bit but still up 25% from original post (puts purchased April 4)

XPO massive day bouncing off its trendline aided by being overbought on 1d, 4h, 1h, RSI. Bigger volume on its upmoves than downmoves hopefully helps its uptrend. Calls purchased yesterday up around 20% taking average of bid/ask (not loads of OI on this stock like a bluechip or tech stocks)

Anybody paying attention to this? Iv had 0 responses on my last 3 posts......

Let me put it this way - 50% gains in 1 week

Sell or hold for more profit? You tell me

http://s9.postimg.org/4i0o36f2n/Capture.jpg

[riander5]

Originally posted by riander5


Anybody paying attention to this? Iv had 0 responses on my last 3 posts......

Let me put it this way - 50% gains in 1 week

Sell or hold for more profit? You tell me

http://s9.postimg.org/4i0o36f2n/Capture.jpg

Here is the corresponding chart. Who wants to trade based off a proven range, trendlines, and a stock that follows RSI and MACD like clockwork!

http://s23.postimg.org/b4ohk66kr/Capture.jpg

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5


Anybody paying attention to this? Iv had 0 responses on my last 3 posts......




You're not SilverRex, your opinions are worthless :rofl: :rofl:


Seriously though, good work.

[jacky4566]

Long time lurker. Too busy investing in MEG and LABU :P Keep posting though.

[riander5]

Originally posted by cjblair


You're not SilverRex, your opinions are worthless :rofl: :rofl:


Seriously though, good work.

Haha i dont necessarily want people acting on my investments like silverrex... id feel terrible if people lost money on my calls. But i think if others take a look at a few of these stocks (DLTR, XPO) they can maybe add to the discussion. Both of those companies have had good charts with nice indicators thus far!!

Id mostly just want people to re assure me im not out to lunch! lol

[SilverRex]

while oil has and did bounce off the 40.00 area as well as the 200DMA on the lower time frame, it remains in a descending channel that needs to be broken to the upside. initially i thought it was going to be a mild sub wave 4 correction and we may still get one more wave higher but now I have revised that we have completed 5 waves off the bottom of 35.2 as this matches the rise when oil first struck a bottom in Feb.

Will the news out of the OPEC meeting this weekend do the trick? or would it be negative and causes oil price to fall further?

in an ideal scenario, lets look at the higher time frame. there is similarities between oil price from 26-33 (7 dollar advance off the bottom) and the current rise from 35-42 also about 7 dollar advance.

oil was first stopped by the 50DMA, corrected then breakout and we are now stopped by the 200DMA, corrected and hopefully follow by a breakout.

as a good simple price projection, the 26-42 rise is 16 dollars, that would bring us into above 51.00.

so let just see if technical analysis continues to receive favor from lady luck next week.

the only concern I have that oil could still head lower is the fact that it has not fully tested the 38% retracement level slightly under 40.00, it is entirely possible that any panic sell off could be completely reversed next week.

http://i.imgur.com/whXs79m.png

[SilverRex]

Lets look at biotech XBI. wave count remains intact, no changes made. however lets look at moving averages today. typically I only use 50 and 200DMA but here we will have 50, 100 and 200.

as you can see 50DMA (blue) provided much of the resistance and top (as the sector was in a bear market) but every since it broke and closed above it, it went to the 100DMA and again price has since came back down and actually or nearly retested the 50DMA.

We are now on a 2nd attempt towards breaking the 100DMA. the next leg up should take us up to 60-61 then I expect price to top and correct just like it did between the 50 and 100 DMA. the 100 DMA may be our next support once we make a higher high.

an alt count for price to slightly break lower than 53.42 can still be on the table. so keep this in mind.

http://i.imgur.com/RuZUOFY.png

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5


Haha i dont necessarily want people acting on my investments like silverrex... id feel terrible if people lost money on my calls.

Id mostly just want people to re assure me im not out to lunch! lol

Really? I think if someone is stupid enough to invest solely based on some internet strangers advice and they lose money, they deserve it for being an idiot :rofl:


Agreed, it's nice to see a second opinion/gut check. This thread is great for that.

[SilverRex]

quick check on DOW, ever since we broke above the bearish neckline holding price down for the last 6-8 months and backtested now moved higher high. the expectation is that we should have enough momentum make to produce an all time high.

However we clearly have two over head resistance and I do not expect it go go thru this area on first try. Perhaps the sell in May and go away for the summer is very possible. Either way we are going to go higher before going down for another correction.

another positive sign is the bullish cross over for the 50 and 200 DMA. Any significant set back the 50/200 DMA should be a very nice support

http://i.imgur.com/6hFNFut.png

[suntan]

Any way to take advantage of the drop in oil before trading?

[riander5]

Originally posted by suntan
Any way to take advantage of the drop in oil before trading?

No

Wonder how much those greasy Saudi fucks short oil every Friday before they say shit like this

[ExtraSlow]

You guys didn't think they were going to cut did you? They've been really clear that they wouldn't cut unless Iran and others like Russia agree to cut. Iran has no intention of cutting and will grow production "at any price".

It's amazing how many people still assume OPEC is going to save the day again. Guys, that's not happening this week, this month or this year. My guess is that they'll never meaningfully curtail production again. We'll have to finally deal with the ramifications of supply and demand.

The good news is that supply and demand DOES WORK. Since this low price is increasing demand, and that delays the switch away from petroleum to more expensive options.

[suntan]

They have to break eventually. They're burning their foreign reserves like mad.

[SilverRex]

Here is a good way to look at oil if one is to believe in higher prices

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Report-Suggests-Massive-Oil-Price-Rebound.html

I say anything drop in oil price is a good buying opportunity

[ExtraSlow]

A version of that has been what I've been selling too. However, I'm an unabashed long term Oil and Gas bull.

As for the Saudis "breaking," clearly they believe that this is a worthwhile investment in future profits, which also strongly implies they believe that the supply will fall, price will increase, and they'll be able to replenish those those dollars on a 2:1 ratio.

[SilverRex]

didnt expect oil to drop this far after the news considering most do not believe anything positive would ever come out from these meetings.

any drop in oil price will simply be a good shake out.

highly likely Meg will be able to fill the 2nd gap left around 6.4 today.

oil's drop to 38 is the 61% retrace which if it is to remain bullish in the short term, it needs to recover back above 40 quickly or risk a more side way extension of the previous drop from 42-35 as only a wave A correction, the slight break above 42 was wave B and we go for another wave C towards 35 again.

[SilverRex]

quick post on meg.to

looks like a very strong recovery, sadly I didnt add more Meg at the low, as it filled the gap and now has jumped back to friday's trading range.

as you can see meg is now fully in a slightly rising channel which imo is bullish waiting for a breakout to the upside that targets 10 dollars.

best strategy is to have two position. one for range trading this channel while holding another position for the take off.

http://i.imgur.com/w3Oqd6M.png

[Type_S1]

Since I don't believe in technical analysis on oil at the moment my opinion means absolutely nothing, however:

Oil rallied from 33ish to well over 40 since the OPEC/Russia freeze talks began. It is safe to assume the majority of this rally was based on hope something positive would shake out, however, fundamentals have gotten a lot stronger as the market is finally starting to realize over the last month the producers have been highly understating their expected declines and overstating their "behind pipe" production. Rig counts are also recording lows not seen since the 90's. As I assumed oil was going to take a sharp fall after the meeting and I expect it to trace back to sub-35 and then a steady increase the remainder of the year.

One positive here is that while oil is rebounding so is gas. A lot of people I chat to have ignored, or are ignorant, to the fact that gas plays a major role on the Canadian energy business. There is so much talk surrounding oil when gas has been equally beaten up and we all know Canada is a gas basin. The whole market at the moment appears to be bullish on gas by year end and fundamentals support it.

[SilverRex]

looks like the oil news forcing the market to open low only as a buying opportunity and the market is now ready to make a run.

biotech looks like a breakout....so stand by

http://i.imgur.com/ZbrgAmq.png