Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bspot]

Looking at XBI, I'm waiting to see if it finds support where it is.

Looking at IBB, it looks like it's already blown through support and makes me think I should already be dumping LABU as it should signal a lower low, and now I'm conflicted.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Looking at XBI, I'm waiting to see if it finds support where it is.

Looking at IBB, it looks like it's already blown through support and makes me think I should already be dumping LABU as it should signal a lower low, and now I'm conflicted.

i may reduce my position if it breaks below 53 xbi and 264 as that is the previous sub wave i which imo would be a bit damaging to the technical picture of the rise this year.

and we all come to know how biotech loves to move within inches of these key levels.

also it has been so long since biotech had 6 red days in a row. the oversold condition is extreme, it will be interesting to see what happens when price do come out of this, is it a sharp rise? its time to put these indicator to the test

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
we have a very nice reversal candle in biotech in the lower time frame. is this is turn?

It's happening again! Damn schizophrenic biotech..

[SilverRex]

looking for DOW to close above last week's swing low at 17855 to start bringing back the technical traders.

and oil above 45.25 would be all good signs that a short term low may be in place

[SilverRex]

lots of buying volume on biotech, seems it's bringing back alot of technical buyers.

look how close xbi came close to the sub wave i top just under 53. how many times have we seen biotech move to within pennies of a key area to reverse.

count remains in tact. we finally move out of oversold hopefully this markets a short term bottom as it tries to retest or recapture the 100DMA for a 5th wave up

http://i.imgur.com/HstOmEZ.png

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex
lots of buying volume on biotech, seems it's bringing back alot of technical buyers.

look how close xbi came close to the sub wave i top just under 53. how many times have we seen biotech move to within pennies of a key area to reverse.

count remains in tact. we finally move out of oversold hopefully this markets a short term bottom as it tries to retest or recapture the 100DMA for a 5th wave up

http://i.imgur.com/HstOmEZ.png

How can you count wave 1 when it didnt exceed that past high?

Did you have a 5 wave count before that? Impulse waves shouldnt overlap like that. I guess if you moved your i and ii counts over to the previous highs and lows it wouldnt affect your analysis much anyways. Your correction looks like it might pan out nicely though

[riander5]

PS oil going to zero

[bspot]

LABU looking good for a reversal.

MEG hanging not too far off the bottom of the channel. Maybe tomorrow will more indication of where it's headed.

[revelations]

Originally posted by riander5
PS oil going to zero

Yes, the world suddenly decided that no oil is needed for anything - from plastics and industrial use, to the elimination of all internal combustion engines.

[Jlude]

can the USD just go back up to 1.46 already... just for a couple days, PLEASE

[SilverRex]

with the swing low today. the US stock market may be ready to resume it's uptrend to test or break for a all time high. Current EW counts expects 1 more 5 wave move for a top. Alt count we can still move side ways. I was glad to see DOW closed above last week's swing low over 17855 which tells me a very good chance the recent weakness is corrective.

once we top out, this should be a wave 1 move follow by a steeper wave II correction thru summer. then the real fun begins towards year end when we begin a wave III.

again the idea is that yes the stock market will eventually crash but not at the current state but after it moves into a bubble phase for the next 2-3 years. everyone is so caught up that a 08 is to repeat, the exact opposite occurs. when sentiment goes into extreme towards one side, thats when trend change usually begins.

http://i.imgur.com/pEbYYci.png

[SilverRex]

it looks like the dollar index while has broken below the Aug low last year, it is still in a channel connected by the two previous lows. and has reached oversold, every time the index reached oversold it has always rallied so I expect dollar has found a short term bottom.

as for oil, it has dropped back below the previous breakout. it needs to recover back above 45 as soon as possible or risk is another test towards 42.50

[ickyflex]

What a shit show

[bspot]

I'm out of MEG. Eating my losses and looking for lower entry.

[riander5]

Told you guys oil going to zero. Well I wasnt actually serious like 'revelations' took it :rofl:

Lets just say my XOP puts are up big time

:bigpimp:

(I am bullish on oil overall, but this correction was overdue you cant be green forever boys come on)

[SilverRex]

reduced my meg position, but added labu just under 30

[riander5]

Quick in and out

http://s32.postimg.org/415766ap1/Capture.jpg

[quick_scar]

Originally posted by bspot
I'm out of MEG. Eating my losses and looking for lower entry.


Looking like I might be in the same boat. fuck:banghead:

[Vanish3d]

Only thing working out for me is DUST right now

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bspot
I'm out of MEG. Eating my losses and looking for lower entry.

[el_fefes]

Isn't this a good buying opportunity for MEG?

[bjstare]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Isn't this a good buying opportunity for MEG?

Depends where you think oil will go from here :dunno:

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
Isn't this a good buying opportunity for MEG?

you could be right, it's just that Meg is technically broken until it finds support and so there is a good chance it can head lower. Obviously a good entry for someone waiting on the sideline

my bullish oil count pegs oil should hold in the 43.5 area with bottom side at 42.50 that should not be broken.

if it does that will be another story, but for now, I am expecting this oil correction to be just another mild one. you can see the pattern 2 steps up 1 step down. Still expecting oil to at least hit 50-51 before any significant correction takes hold. when I say significant correction I mean 4> dollars.

[riander5]

Heres a chart I made based on some trading strategies iv been practicing lately. Oil was very oversold when it dropped and if you look at the last correction it made this one was relatively predictable.

Ill come back to this page in a week or so and see if this turned out accurate at all. Of course this projection changes with time, but putting it out here now for fun :devil:

http://s32.postimg.org/4i560112d/Capture.jpg

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
Heres a chart I made based on some trading strategies iv been practicing lately. Oil was very oversold when it dropped and if you look at the last correction it made this one was relatively predictable.

Ill come back to this page in a week or so and see if this turned out accurate at all. Of course this projection changes with time, but putting it out here now for fun :devil:

http://s32.postimg.org/4i560112d/Capture.jpg

fib retracement at any level is always possible. however my counts are different since your wave 3 is less than wave 1 so I believe we either completed wave 3 and currently wave 4 in progress that should not break below wave 1 top.

[riander5]

My 3 wave rule is that it cant be the shortest in price of wave 1,3, and 5,

Yours is that it has to be the largest of the three?

My Fib retracement accuracy is limited until (I could also say IF) a wave A completes. But for this strategy a price retracement of the previous trend is most likely between 50 -61.8 %. For time I am shooting between 38.2 and 61.8% of previous trend.

Guess we will see how she plays out

I also noticed my retracement based on Fib price and time would happen to bounce perfectly off the proposed trendline you have (I have as well)

I say proposed trendline as it has only been touched twice and needs a third bounce to confirm... although one could argue it was confirmed on my wave 2 bounce i guess.

Lots of interpretation with all of this

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by riander5
My 3 wave rule is that it cant be the shortest in price of wave 1,3, and 5,

Yours is that it has to be the largest of the three?

My Fib retracement accuracy is limited until (I could also say IF) a wave A completes. But for this strategy a price retracement of the previous trend is most likely between 50 -61.8 %. For time I am shooting between 38.2 and 61.8% of previous trend.

Guess we will see how she plays out

I also noticed my retracement based on Fib price and time would happen to bounce perfectly off the proposed trendline you have (I have as well)

I say proposed trendline as it has only been touched twice and needs a third bounce to confirm... although one could argue it was confirmed on my wave 2 bounce i guess.

Lots of interpretation with all of this

yes the thing about wave count is that it is ever changing. yours might be right if oil breaks below 42.5 as it would imply we are into a larger degree correction.

[riander5]

Originally posted by SilverRex


yes the thing about wave count is that it is ever changing. yours might be right if oil breaks below 42.5 as it would imply we are into a larger degree correction.

Agreed. If crude breaks through that zone I circled I will switch from bullish to bearish. Either way im using all these dips to load up on BTE and WCP to try and completely fill my TFSA up with them, and switch to a regular investing account for commodity and leveraged trades.

Plan is to let BTE and WCP ride for a year or so with minimal intervention

[SilverRex]

IBB at 270 is quite important. would love to see a close above this

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by riander5


Agreed. If crude breaks through that zone I circled I will switch from bullish to bearish. Either way im using all these dips to load up on BTE and WCP to try and completely fill my TFSA up with them, and switch to a regular investing account for commodity and leveraged trades.

Plan is to let BTE and WCP ride for a year or so with minimal intervention

Surprised BTE is actually taking such a hit today, they had pretty decent earnings

[bspot]

I redeployed some of my MEG to LABU at $29.75.

Leaving the rest on the sidelines.

The XBI chart has the clearest setup to at least bounce around the channel right now.

I have no freaking idea what to expect with MEG right now. I'll give it a while and look for more obvious entry. $5.80 I guess could be support. Doesn't really look convincing. Otherwise maybe $5.65. My general cluelessness hear says I should get out and stay away.

[riander5]

^If oil drops expect MEG to drop. MEG follows oil up and down.

For ickyflex I agree, reason I got into BTE now is they are usually more resilient than MEG for drops... but after dropping 10% in two days I had to get in. Still have only put 25% of what im willing to drop into them... have the rest sitting on the sidelines.

I might play some more crude downside here... will wait and see what the chart tells me. If 15m and 1h line up in OB any time soon ill get in as 1D has a ways to go before I see the correction being over. If i make a trade ill post it and we will see whether im a winner or loser!

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5
^If oil drops expect MEG to drop. MEG follows oil up and down.


The crappy part is MEG didn't track up with oil last week. No idea why, but it threw my plans to sell a large part of my position and take profit out the window.

Do you guys have preferred inverse ETFs for following oil down? Depending on what resistance is broken I'm interested in trying to do something in my TFSA on the way down.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot


The crappy part is MEG didn't track up with oil last week. No idea why, but it threw my plans to sell a large part of my position and take profit out the window.

Do you guys have preferred inverse ETFs for following oil down? Depending on what resistance is broken I'm interested in trying to do something in my TFSA on the way down.

yes I was surprised as well, maybe insider dumping on sell news after the earnings came out. with oil currently correcting, it does not help one bit.

oil needs to find a footing in order Meg to base a base for the next run. after all they had a positive Q1, and for the last 2 months it has been trending in around about a 2 dollar range.

[SilverRex]

nice recovery on oil when it try to dip towards a lower low, hopefully an early indication a short term oil bottom is close

also looks like the US dollar has find support under 92 and is recovering pretty strongly. this should hurt gold for the coming weeks.

[el_fefes]

^ I was just going to ask about gold. If we're in a bearish turn, it would be wise to buy gold, right? Flight to safety and all...

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by el_fefes
^ I was just going to ask about gold. If we're in a bearish turn, it would be wise to buy gold, right? Flight to safety and all...

I'm doing the exact opposite. Shorting miners with DUST.

[bspot]

Me too. Opened a small HGD position this afternoon.

[bjstare]

I'm pretty happy to be watching XBI/LABU from the sidelines right now.

If when oil seems to hit a bit of a bottom, I'm going to get back into POU. Probably see POU in the $6 range at that point. Sub $6 would be ideal.

[bspot]

^I would be enjoying the sidelines today.

XBI testing the 50 day MA. Also at the bottom of the larger channel. $52.76 is the magic number. I'm so sad my stop of $28 for LABU is now very in range.

http://i.imgur.com/wf15VB1.jpg

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by cjblair
I'm pretty happy to be watching XBI/LABU from the sidelines right now.



I'm still holding onto a reduced position in LABU. I'm in this deep I might as well try and ride it out.

[Manhattan]

Be greedy when everyone else is fearful. Except biotech. Be fearful of biotech because it's still overvalued.

[you&me]

Maybe it's because I just watched Billions, but...

I realize this is totally terrible to think about at a time like this, but I wanted a way to register a thought I had -

Does anyone think the camp supplier stocks could get a bump based on the situation in Ft Mac? I'm thinking Black Diamond, Horizon North, etc... all hammered stocks and all with a ton of under-utilized assets and a situation where the provincial gov't will likely be paying the bills in a relief effort...

Just curious. Flame suit on...

[ercchry]

If it was the PCs still I could see that, depends how much of their business is the camps though... Alison went all out for the floods, I was at a company that supplied some things for that one and the money being spent on temporary relief was insane

[bspot]

Question on LABU. My stop was set way back at $28, figuring it would be around this resistance for XBI. Is that low enough, or am I in range of screwing myself if somehow things pop off the lower channel tomorrow?

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
I got out of my LABU at a small profit from today's ride and jumped into LABD. I am betting XBI will hit ~53 before moving higher.

If only I listened to myself :cry:

if LABU doesn't move higher above the resistance line in the first 30 min today then I'll get out and move the money into DUST.

EDIT: and I'm out. Looks like it's heading to the ~50 support line.

[bspot]

Left my stop at $28. Gonna see if I can make anything dipping in and out today.

[SilverRex]

these panic sells off are hard to watch and stomach and I agree. my own personally bias remains the same. this is the market cooling off after one of the strongest rallies out of a bottom. recalling my dow chart posted on april 16, after the breakout it looks like it wants to backtest that line and it is unfortunate that biotech is getting dragged down during this cycle low.

I suspect while oil should not break below 42.50, it is already making a break out swing higher which could mean it is ready to resume it's uptrend. hopefully this means the stock market should find a bottom soon this week.

[SilverRex]

how much does oil need to rise before energy stocks would regain momentum? I could use Meg to pop a 10% day just so I can sell some of my holdings and add to my biotech lol

a week ago people were more eager to buy any stock near it's high, and after a sell off like we have had, I bet everyone is just eager to sell at the bottom thinking it is about to give.

thats just how the average investor are. :nut: me included.

[SilverRex]

as i have suspected oil has bounced off the 53.x area and revising a bit of the channeling in the daily chart reveals it backtested the breakout line which means uptrend remains intact. my target of 50-51 in this rising channel remains. hence I am not going to sell my Meg considering it is trading near the bottom of the range and if I remember correctly anything under 6.00 for Meg seems to be a good play anyways.

http://i.imgur.com/CkKcPDD.png

[SilverRex]

yamana gold has already shed 14% off the high. will be interesting to see how the correction unfolds. can one believe that since the miners were pushed so high so soon would equally snap back strongly? I will begin to start scaling if miners begin to correct over 20% a 50 or even a 61% off the rise this year is not completely out of the question.

[riander5]

Might be getting back into XPO after earnings - try to duplicate the 100% returns from 2 weeks ago

[SilverRex]

Stock market looking for some positive news to lift, sadly the negative oil and adp report continues to add stress to the market. then again there are key retracement levels just under all sectors. just coincident? and big money all want in on key levels? we shall see

[civicHB]

trying to get into Under Armour (UA)- any insight rex?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by civicHB
trying to get into Under Armour (UA)- any insight rex?

not sure why you like this company and I havent done any research but if your trying to get in the simplest approach is to wait until a swing low is formed. a Definition of a swing low is when price breaks the closing high of the previous trading session.

right now the market is a bloodbath with shorts, panic sellers, and bad news scaring alot of people. its best to wait until the dust settles and see how the market reacts.

[civicHB]

ok, looks like it has some long term upside and want to park some US funds for mid to long term time period

[Manhattan]

^

Under Armour is way overpriced at current levels. Selling at double the price/book value of Nike. P/E is ridiculously high too. It's a growing company especially in Asia but still doesn't justify the high price. UA stock is going to get killed in a market correction.

If you want to park US funds for the long term look at US financials - Bank of America, Citigroup, Capital One are all selling at big discounts.

[riander5]

Originally posted by riander5
Might be getting back into XPO after earnings - try to duplicate the 100% returns from 2 weeks ago

XPO went from up 4% on the day to down 8% - Sitting on the sidelines for now lol

[riander5]

Park your US funds in XOP - A US oil producer tracking ETF

I shorted it the other day but for a set it and forget it type stock should see 20-30% gains over the next year id imagine

[bspot]

Any input on a good ETF to chart for HGD analysis? Being it's a leveraged ETF, I'd prefer to find the LABU/LABD-> XBI equivalent.

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot
Any input on a good ETF to chart for HGD analysis? Being it's a leveraged ETF, I'd prefer to find the LABU/LABD-> XBI equivalent.

Um.. gold?

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5


Um.. gold?

Hasn't worked that great. Miners have been out of whack with gold price moves on many occasions. If there is an ETF that is holding fundamentally the same set of miners, I would much prefer that.

Edit: Using $SPTGD

If that's dumb, feel free to let me know :)

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot


Hasn't worked that great. Miners have been out of whack with gold price moves on many occasions. If there is an ETF that is holding fundamentally the same set of miners, I would much prefer that.

I see... Not quite sure then :dunno:

I know of ones for oil but not gold. Although im considering starting to watch gold / silver and set up some practice trades see how things go

[SilverRex]

a quick post on miners. im using gdx for this sector.

with gold finally started heading down into an intermediate cycle low targeting the June time frame. the expectation is for price to continue to grind lower and lower over the next couple of weeks. and yes once a wave A bottom is stuck it will rally like everything is about to go back up again. the most painful phase will be wave 'c' when that will shake off the average investor (sort of like what we are seeing in biotech)

if this correction pans out I will be heavily scaling back in the buy zone. and yes any fall below this buy zone box will be god's gift. I want to see a 50-62% retracement of this baby bull leg up then the party begins with wave III taking us even further ahead

P.S just want to mention even if the rise from 20-26 is already the start of wave i of III, the correctional wave ii will still bring price down to 21. which means, either scenario we should begin loading up on miners when gdx hits 21 or below. The only thing stopping anyone from buying the miners is if you believe gold's rise to 1300 this year is a bear market rally.

http://i.imgur.com/MtaYr00.png

[Vanish3d]

Where do you see DUST to top in the next couple of weeks?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
Where do you see DUST to top in the next couple of weeks?

just use the chart I just posted on gdx as your guide. there could be a short term bounce right here on gdx considering it is sitting on an uptrend line. dont forget this sector just came off a very bullish sentiment and so there are still many investors wanting to jump in with both feet. the initial drop/decline grind lower could be very erratic, which means it wont keep dropping like a brick until we hit wave 'c' which is the emotional sell off.

while personally I dont like going counter trend in a bull market. the lesson I did learn over and over again is to always find away to take profit off the table because the moment it reverses, you can get back in again.

example look how many times one could have profit from the 6-7 dollar range. and gdx from 19-21. My strategy would be to have at least two position. one as core and one to trade the range

[SilverRex]

here was a dow chart I posted back on Apri-16

and see where we are now? on a grand scheme of things, it would appear that is exactly what is happening. DOW has nearly hit its 5 day RSI oversold, I expect bottom will be in this week and market will reverse in full

http://i.imgur.com/R8j0AAb.png

[Manhattan]

Title for this thread should really be changed to 'Stock Trading Thread'. The term 'investment' isn't really applicable to what's happen in here which is mostly speculation and short-term trading (nothing wrong with it). People who are looking to park their money for a while can easily get the wrong idea and take on a lot more risk than they realize.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by Manhattan
Title for this thread should really be changed to 'Stock Trading Thread'. The term 'investment' isn't really applicable to what's happen in here which is mostly speculation and short-term trading (nothing wrong with it). People who are looking to park their money for a while can easily get the wrong idea and take on a lot more risk than they realize.


Short-term investments thread is a perfect title for this thread (which is not-so-ironically centered around short term investments). If someone looking to park money for a while is basing their decision off "short term" investment discussion, maybe it's time for them to learn a bit about reading comprehension? :rofl:


Surely, you're aware there is a long-term investments thread...

[BavarianBeast]

Idk, for me...

Short term = 5 years or less
Long term 5 years+

[civicHB]

thanks for the US $ suggestions!

[Mibz]

There is an equivalent long-term investments thread for anybody looking for help there.

[ExtraSlow]

Long term thread is much better for folks who don't want to melt their brains.

[bspot]

Looking for oil to climb tomorrow AM on lowered production news.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
Idk, for me...

Short term = 5 years or less
Long term 5 years+


for me
Short term = 1 month max
Long term = 1+ months

I don't think I've held any of these 'short term' plays for longer than a couple of weeks. usually it's less than 3 days.

[rx7_turbo2]

Originally posted by bspot
Looking for oil to climb tomorrow AM on lowered production news.

Well played.

[SilverRex]

im surprise the fort mcmurray had such an impact to over all oil prices. Coincident? no matter my target for 51 oil still stands :nut:

[bspot]

LABU gaps up. Congrats to anyone that had the balls to jump in at the end of yesterday.

EDIT: Back down like a rock :rofl: First sign of upward pressure though, I'm going to keep a close eye for re-entry within the next couple days.

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
im surprise the fort mcmurray had such an impact to over all oil prices. Coincident? no matter my target for 51 oil still stands :nut:

That has had a slight effect on the WCS/WTI gap, but the biggest price factor is US production at an 18 month low (IMO).

[SilverRex]

regn had good earnings, hopefully this will keep biotech flat until the non-farm payroll comes and goes tomorrow which no doubt will push the market one way or the other

reduced my meg position by 1/3 this morning and bought another tranche of labu

[Vanish3d]

XBI just touched the support line.
Got in at LABU 24 - do or die now

[SilverRex]

as expected miners rebounded, however if the high is in and remains unbroken, then the logical move is that it will be about to turn back down, although i suspect it may require tomorrow's NFP numbers before it really starts to drop.

[SilverRex]

do or die biotech

http://i.imgur.com/PJdg7gg.png

[bspot]

got in at 23.9, trying to add more but waiting for buying power to come back from another trade :rofl:

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by bspot


That has had a slight effect on the WCS/WTI gap, but the biggest price factor is US production at an 18 month low (IMO).

Blurb from Peters

"I wanted to pass along a quick update as to the latest intel we have with regards to the forest fire impact on both pipeline flows and oilsands projects.

· In summary, IPL has shut down its Corridor line which is bi-directional servicing the Shell/Chevron/Marathon AOSP project and hence the project is currently not operating. The northern portion of Polaris delivers condensate to IMO/XOM Kearl, HSE/BP Sunrise and small portions of SU’s operations has also been shut down based on our most recent conversations and as evident by the HSE and SU press releases. The reduced rates they quote are likely be backed by Diluent inventory that is kept on site at the various projects. In speaking with CNQ, there is no impact to production at either Horizon (synthetic) or Kirby (diluent) as this is south of where Polaris has shut in diluent transport.

· In terms of total potential production impact? When I tally up the blended production that could be potentially impacted it equates to some ~1.3 mmbbl/d… this would include SU operations ~400 mbbl/d, Syncrude – 300 mbbl/d , Kearl 250 mbbl/d, Sunrise 40 mbbl/d, Surmont ~100 mbbl/d, and AOSP 250 mbbl/d. Again this is potential impact as the various projects are running at reduced rates, etc.

· The map below highlights the oilsands projects of focus along with the impacted pipelines carrying diluent into the region being Corridor and Polaris.

· What will be the effect on respective oil pricing? In speaking with various traders today, the differentials tightened across the board (~$1/bbl over the day) which would be expected given the impact to production. When looking back to last year’s fires which caused the shut in of MEG Christina Lake and COP/CVE Foster Creek operations (~300 mbbl/d) the differential narrowed by just over ~$3/bbl for a short period of time. The production shut in lasted approx. ~5-10 days. Given the magnitude of the potential production impact this go around and an unknown timeline as to how long the various P/L’s will be shut down and projects operating at restricted rates or shut down, the impact on differentials will be tough to predict, but directionally will tighten.

· Stock Impacts? Who may benefit? (it is hard to even ponder this given the terrible situation) but that is the nature of this business. Those with no prod. impact currently - CVE and MEG insitu volumes from the Christina Lake projects and Foster Creek are not impacted currently which will benefit from the contracted differentials. As mentioned above CNQ continues to have no operational impact out of both Horizon and Kirby. Also think too the various light oil producers in the WCSB which will also receive the pricing uptick.

· As additional information becomes available I will pass it along.


Details of what we know based on company conversations/press releases, etc….

Suncor

Suncor has conducted an orderly shutdown of its base plant operations. In addition, with the reduced availability of diluent in the region, our in situ facility operations are running at reduced rates. Syncrude facilities are also operating at reduced rates. All of Suncor's operations in the RMWB region remain in safe condition.

Husky

We are updating our earlier comments with respect to operations at Sunrise as a result of the fires in the Fort McMurray area.

· At the Sunrise site we continue to support families who have been evacuated from the Fort McMurray area.
· The pipeline operator providing diluent to a few operations, including Sunrise, has advised that they have shut down their pipeline.
· As a result, Husky will be reducing production at Sunrise to about 10,000 bbls/day (gross).
· Our focus continues to be on the safety and wellbeing of our employees and the families who have been evacuated.
· We are working with regional emergency authorities to help coordinate evacuation efforts.

Shell

Shell has shut down its AOSP Marathon project as a result of the corridor line from IPL being reportedly shut down which is a bi-directional line

Athabasca
“At this time there has been no impact to the Company's operations at Hangingstone. Our first priority is the protection of our employees and we will ensure the safety of both our staff and contractors. The fire front is approximately 15 kilometers north of the project. The situation is being closely monitored, a response plan is in place and Athabasca is in communication with the appropriate government agencies. The Company has taken proactive measures to truck diluent to site as Inter Pipelines' Polaris diluent line has been temporarily shut-in. “

Inter Pipeline

Below are some details from speaking with them
- Have evacuated in region staff. Just a proactive measure – physical assets they own have not actually been impacted
- Confirmed they have shut down / been restricting Polaris (just the northern portion) and the Corridor pipelines
o The northern portion of Polaris delivers condensate to IMO/XOM Kearl, HSE/BP Sunrise, and small portions to Suncor’s operations.
o Corridor is a bi-directional line for the Shell/Chevron/Marathon AOSP project
- They could not give a clear answer when asked the question of whether the pipelines were completely shut-down or still flowing some volumes at a restricted rate (i.e. is Corridor moving any volumes or not) given that everything is changing so quickly
- IPL pointed out there would be no financial impact to it as a result of its contract structures


Enbridge

Saying no impact at this point. Its Athabasca pipeline system essentially moves through the city of Ft. McMurray, so if issues were to be encountered here it would be problematic for upstream producers (Suncor being the largest volumes on this system)

Most of the other large pipelines run approx. 10-15km outside the city


Other chatter

· Surmont production has been slowed down/halted as a result of not being able to get synthetic. Recall Surmont gets Synthetic from the Syncrude project... On a blended basis this would represent some 100 mb/d of blended capacity.
· Takeaway capacity out of the greater Fort McMurray area via P/L is still happening at a reduced rate, the majority of the P/L concern is around bringing diluent up.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/Bullboard/t.meg/meg-energy-corp#WocK97T04IoRg8Mz.99"

[SilverRex]

i wonder if this means local gas prices will shoot up as well

[SilverRex]

to cancel oil shorts, need another hourly close above 45.4 and bring in further longs

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by SilverRex
i wonder if this means local gas prices will shoot up as well


I think out of bad press they won't. How bad would that look hah

[SilverRex]

just an added caution I am now reading a few EW analyst calling that the stock market is officially moving into a wave 2 correction for the next couple of weeks. while my own count suggest I want to see one more leg higher to at least test or break a new record high, one has to keep this in mind.

if indeed we are in a wave 2 correction, then one needs to scale back or pay attention to the next rally as it could simply be a counter trend 3 wave up.

after biotech has dropped significantly for 7-8 days, I expect a rally to retrace at least 38% for IBB from the 289-256 drop is back to around 271. so we will see where labu lies when IBB retest 271 which will be the magic resistance. I may reduce or exit completely around this area and evaluate before jumping back in

after all spx/dji clearly looks like it has already made a 5 waves down, so at the very least I expect a counter trend 3 waves back up if this bearish wave 2 unfolds perfectly

[SilverRex]

just to post what I have just said about the wave II correction if that is what's being unfolding.

http://i.imgur.com/zBJTPNs.png

[bspot]

LABU looks ready to break out of the coil.

[bspot]

I almost forgot what it looked like to see LABU green...

[bball2]

Originally posted by bspot
I almost forgot what it looked like to see LABU green...

That didn't last long :banghead:

[bspot]

Originally posted by bball2


That didn't last long :banghead:

Higher lows... barely. It's forming resistance near 24. My stop is set at $23.75. If it breaks below today's previous low, back to the sidelines for me.

[ickyflex]

How does oil go from +$2 to 30 cents lol. Nothing even changed

[bspot]

Dang, still playing in the channel. Break! Break damn you!

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_3128fc0bd090507f93266ced7191a3a9.png

[bspot]

Well, if you were looking at jumping back into MEG, the time would be soon.

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bspot
Well, if you were looking at jumping back into MEG, the time would be soon.

i have been scaling out slowly on each pop at open and moved into labu instead. ever since Meg broke down from the rising channel, technically it was just damaged and require to find a bottom somewhere.

it looks as though Meg has moved into a wave 2 correction with 3.46 to 7.84 as wave 1 and so retracement levels to watch would be 6.15, 5.65 and 5.13

[bspot]

^Thanks! I did not see that count at all, I'm half out currently and will look to manage the rest of my position based on that retracment fib.

[SilverRex]

here is a quick recount on meg. despite oil being up 2 dollar, Meg unable to jump which tells me it was still looking for a bottom.

even if oil makes a new high say 47+, Meg may only get back to just under 7.00 and potentially linger or consolidate for are couple of weeks for a lower 'c' wave.

however it is possible that wave 2 correction could end (assuming oil hits 50+) and begin to lift energy stocks into wave 3, confirmation would require price to break wave 'b' at 7.50 to re-open higher target prices

http://i.imgur.com/xecAKPM.png