Official Short-term Investments Thread

[bspot]

Oh happy days.... (or another tease):

http://930e888ea91284a71b0e-62c980cafddf9881bf167fdfb702406c.r96.cf1.rackcdn.com/data/tvc_da16ad8eecf1a766d668201c2ae5e742.png

[SilverRex]

^
yes I am hoping it at least give us a 2-3 counter trend rally before heading lower. will be looking to exit if it can claw back to around 29-31.

[Manhattan]

Can't believe how much BTE has outperformed MEG this year.

[BavarianBeast]

Added to my Canacol position today. :thumbsup:

[bspot]

double post

[bspot]

If XBI breaks $50, down to $47.90? It feels stupid to go LABD this late in the move, but that's a decent gap until next support unless the floor falls out on open.

[SilverRex]

well NFP slightly negative news for the market, however I do not see this as being huge. market should begin to move as I feel many were on the sideline until report is out.

after oil unable to make a 2nd bullish technical close above 45.4, pretty much all gains were erased and back to being neutral. bottom side fallout remains near 42.5 and my own personal bias is still to see 51 oil as long as oil can remain above 42

[SilverRex]

as long as market can make a swing low that will be positive. I still think market is way oversold and require a 2-3 day rally regardless of overall direction

[bspot]

I had my stop set at $23.75 for LABU :banghead:

I need serious help learning to set my stops with this leveraged stuff. The intent was to stop out if XBI broke resistance at $50, but it barely touches $49, and boom, completely screw myself :banghead:

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by bspot
I had my stop set at $23.75 for LABU :banghead:

I need serious help learning to set my stops with this leveraged stuff. The intent was to stop out if XBI broke resistance at $50, but it barely touches $49, and boom, completely screw myself :banghead:

I only use tight stops for quick flips. If I buy at 24, I'll stop it at 23.5.
if I lose, it's not too much, and I'm not overly mad if it goes above 24 again because It's close enough for a chance to re-buy. I don't bother with $2+ stops. Either ride it out or dump it and move on.

It seems with LABU/LABD day-trading is any decision you make you'll have multiple chances to fill during the day. It fluctuates like crazy

[SilverRex]

oil is holding up well and is beginning to make technical breakouts, while miners as certainly rebounded, as long as gold does not break above 1303, this maybe a second chance for a good opportunity to short miners

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by SilverRex
oil is holding up well and is beginning to make technical breakouts, while miners as certainly rebounded, as long as gold does not break above 1303, this maybe a second chance for a good opportunity to short miners

I'll keep a close eye. I rode DUST from 1.4 to 1.65 and got out. Maybe I can do that again :)

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d


I'll keep a close eye. I rode DUST from 1.4 to 1.65 and got out. Maybe I can do that again :)

yup it looks as though the initial pop in US dollar weakness was a head fake and now has fully gone the other way, the dollar seems ready to make newer highs today which will no doubt crash gold imo

just waiting to see if dollar and break yesterday's high

[SilverRex]

if oil can close above 45.4 today, that would break the backs of oil bears and possibly open up a very nice week for oil next week. that may also mean SM should begin to recover.

also significantly strong volume on labu in the 24 area this two days. could also be an indication big money is starting to move back in for a counter trend rally

[el_fefes]

You guys still holding HGD? Bought a small position a couple days ago... this US job data is not helping lol

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by el_fefes
You guys still holding HGD? Bought a small position a couple days ago... this US job data is not helping lol

report was slightly positive towards the metals,

if one is to take a position, this is the area to do it, either gold breaks out or it will completely reverse back down and this becomes the second top that will set the bearish trend for the next few weeks.

[SilverRex]

possible oil triangle consolidation pattern developing that is if it does not breakout above wave b and holds above the neckline

http://i.imgur.com/CNsTvkZ.png

[Vanish3d]

gold about to breakout. Guess I picked the wrong side with DUST

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by Vanish3d
gold about to breakout. Guess I picked the wrong side with DUST

just set your stops and if your kicked out, wait and see how things go.

[ercchry]

Sold dgc yesterday :cry:

[el_fefes]

Yeah, got out of HGD at a loss... small position so not too painful.

[bball2]

LABU breakout finally?

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by bball2
LABU breakout finally?

will see if it is sustainable, eventually one of these rallies will be the real one would be very good to close above the 200DMA on the weekly chart for biotech above xbi 55.4 and ibb 254.85

[SilverRex]

feels like Meg is bottoming around 5.7 area nicely forming a good base here

[you&me]

Originally posted by you&me
Maybe it's because I just watched Billions, but...

I realize this is totally terrible to think about at a time like this, but I wanted a way to register a thought I had -

Does anyone think the camp supplier stocks could get a bump based on the situation in Ft Mac? I'm thinking Black Diamond, Horizon North, etc... all hammered stocks and all with a ton of under-utilized assets and a situation where the provincial gov't will likely be paying the bills in a relief effort...

Just curious. Flame suit on...

I actually ended up taking a small position in both HNL and BDI first thing the morning after I made this post. Pretty happy with the results so far!

Thoughts on holding longer, or should I cash out now?

[el_fefes]

^ Well played! Nothing wrong with taking profits... trying to time for max profit hasn't worked for me in the past...

[SilverRex]

here is biotech's seasonal chart for those that care (about 20 years of data)

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/S5BIOTX%20Index.PNG

[you&me]

Originally posted by SilverRex
here is biotech's seasonal chart for those that care (about 20 years of data)

http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/S5BIOTX%20Index.PNG

Am I interpreting correctly that it's a good time to start buying before things go on a run for the second half of the year?

[SilverRex]

looking for the stock market to bounce this week.

oil as suspected is now moving towards wave 'e' in a triangular consolidation pattern .

gold, also as expected, it did not break above 1303 hence the top remains and more weakness ahead. last friday was a perfect setup to go short

[SilverRex]

lets recap spx as general gauge to the stock market. the current count has wave 'a' completed and so I am expecting a 3 wave counter rally to begin follow by another 5 waves lower to mark a wave II correction.

however there is a chance that the latest 5 waves down could be viewed as still part of a sub iv (in red) and if that is the case, then the stock market could still make another 5 waves towards a higher high 2111+ and DOW would make an all time high in the next few weeks.

regardless which path the market takes, it still means a bounce in the short term is likely

http://i.imgur.com/fguvFp4.png

[bspot]

Solid open for LABU!

[SilverRex]

who thinks meg is ready for a bounce.

of course if the 5 pt wave triangle consolidation on oil happens to breakout to the upside then more than likely

http://i.imgur.com/lANdHvt.png

[bjstare]

Panama Papers names to be released later today. I was thinking of jumping back into LABU on a dip, but this has me second guessing. Potentially won't affect the markets at all, I just don't want to be caught if it does :dunno:

Edit: OR maybe I won't have the option to buy on a dip :rofl:

Edit edit: in at $26.35 LABU, too many bullish signs to ignore.

[ickyflex]

How does oil trade down on increased China demand and Canadian production offline lol.

[bspot]

Targeting ~$29.50 for some partial profit taking with LABU.

Sound strategy? I screwed up my exit badly last ride up.

[SilverRex]

looks like oil wants to test 42.5

[Vanish3d]

DUST making smile today and covering loses in energy.
I'll consider taking profits at 20% and looking for re-entry

[bspot]

^I timed my HGD exit last week magically.

I should let you guys know every time I cut my losses on something. It's basically a reliable "buy" tip.

[Vanish3d]

Originally posted by bspot
^I timed my HGD exit last week magically.

I should let you guys know every time I cut my losses on something. It's basically a reliable "buy" tip.

Lol ya that happens to me all the time. I cut my losses with LABU and moved the money in DUST. Now DUST is up much more than LABU so it was a good play so far.

[el_fefes]

Originally posted by bspot
^I timed my HGD exit last week magically.

I should let you guys know every time I cut my losses on something. It's basically a reliable "buy" tip.

I'm kicking myself for doing the same. lol

[SilverRex]

late last week gold was so close to the top set at 1303 that it was sort of a basic strategy to short with your mental stops above 1303. and miners didnt even break the previous top, so i was wondering why some of you exited or got stopped out. so long gold cant make a new high, one should view the rally as a counter trend bounce only to fall off the cliff once again. if miners can break the low set early last week, then more pain ahead for the sector which I welcome

[BavarianBeast]

Any thoughts or opinions on BXE? I've got an average of $2.50 on them right now, thinking about buying some more.

[Vanish3d]

Looks like a good time to spin the dice and get into LABD with tight stops

[bspot]

^I don't see any obvious resistance until $29.50+, so I'd be nervous to here.

EDIT: I guess around $28 from after the gap down as well.

[bspot]

Originally posted by SilverRex
late last week gold was so close to the top set at 1303 that it was sort of a basic strategy to short with your mental stops above 1303. and miners didnt even break the previous top, so i was wondering why some of you exited or got stopped out. so long gold cant make a new high, one should view the rally as a counter trend bounce only to fall off the cliff once again. if miners can break the low set early last week, then more pain ahead for the sector which I welcome

I bailed on HGD to load up on LABU.

I now am waiting for SPTGD to drop below 209-210, and then I will dive back in on HGD.

[SilverRex]

while oil has falling out of the triangle consolidation pattern it still looks to me it is looking for a bottom. the next support is just under 43 with a rising trendline. so the 42.5-43 area should provide a good support and can mark the bottom.

as for biotech, it appears we have made 2 waves up yesterday, and I expect we get one more minor wave higher today then move into a bigger correction. I will take this chance to scale down at the top and possibly re-add my position lower. Even if this is a bear rally, it should find a bottom once it finishes it's 5 waves up and make another 5 waves higher my target remains at about 54 xbi and 270 ibb for the short term

[bjstare]

Got out of LABU on the little pop a few mins ago. That trade didn't get me anything (or lose me anything) except my trading fees. I'll be keeping a close eye on it for another entry though.

[BavarianBeast]

.

[BavarianBeast]

SCTY is on sale for under $16 :thumbsup:

Should be back over $20 in 2 weeks imho.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
SCTY is on sale for under $16 :thumbsup:

Should be back over $20 in 2 weeks imho.

Based on...?

[SilverRex]

just trying to play my conspiracy hat. anyone compare how the miners were driven down 8 days back in December to a lower low only to completely rally strongly? partly because it was an over sold sector that was undervalued at the time.

I am trying to guess if buyers are now exhausted and a much needed correction is in progress, the big money will just flow into other under performing sectors (like biotech) considering how strong the stock market has rebounded and about to make new highs, this sector still under performs.

so we saw a 8-10 day price being driven down similar to the miners, the only key difference is that it didnt make a lower low. Reason might be it isnt a weak sector like the miners and trying to intimidate sellers is much harder to do.

what if, the big money is now ready to run up the biotech sectors? it is so hard to hold old turkey style especially after seeing so many red days.

however what I am going to do is follow the chart pattern on the miners. if I analyzed it correctly, during the run up, price never broke the two previous session low. And so I will use this as my exit strategy out of biotech if it does that. if it does not, I will continue to hold it as long as I can

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by cjblair


Based on...?

Any other decent stock that has a major overreaction to bad earnigns :dunno:

[SilverRex]

oil has been consolidating above 42.50 which was the previous top very well. the longer we hold above this area the higher the chance that once breakout occurs beyond the down trendline (red)

this will fuel energy stock for the next rally

http://i.imgur.com/ePhUCYE.png

[bspot]

I feel like a battered wife with LABU, but I've been forcing myself to hold the majority of my position. Lets see if this flag gives it another good run.

[s_havinga]

Whats the max time you guys would hang onto HOD/HOU? same day? a few days?

[dandia89]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


Any other decent stock that has a major overreaction to bad earnigns :dunno:
what about their poor earnings report time after time? seems like the stock price only gains value due to speculation with elon musk. fundamentally scty looks scary

[bspot]

SPTG looks like it could be flagging. I'm still not convinced enough to hit up HGD yet.

Due to a meeting, I will be holding LABU overnight again. After today's unconvincing move, I was hoping to dump it before close and pick it back up in early trading, so lets hope nothing crazy happens.

[SilverRex]

as mention this morning, biotech needed to make 5 waves up, the sharp higher high this morning may be the 5th wave and so price is heading down in wave B correction. might explain the movement today is very weak and of low volume. what timing, XON appears down after hours on earnings report.

biotech could be driven to a lower low under today's low tomorrow before bottoming and making another 5 waves up towards 54 xbi and 270

[SilverRex]

oil 50SMA and 200 SMA has crossed over. another indicator suggesting the 3 year cycle low at 26 dollar is behind us. again we are not going to see 10 dollar oil. Market oftens moves in anticipation of future events like lowest rig counts and energy companies going bankrupt and such that a tight supply squeeze could be in the horizon towards end of the year

price continues to remain above 42.5 which is very encouraging. waiting for a neckline breakout to start targeting 50 dollar oil

http://i.imgur.com/5W635NK.png

[SilverRex]

DOW rose strongly right up against the down trendline. currently only 2 waves up. expecting a sub wave 4 pull back before breaking this. and yes potentially it can hurt biotech and drag that sector down towards a lower low than yesterday.

http://i.imgur.com/x3wH2IX.png

[SilverRex]

gold bounced up again, then again, it could offer yet another good reason to short it with smaller risk knowing 1303 is the previous top.

no one says gold has to go down straight, considering how many people missed the rally off the bottom, it will be a slow and painful grind. silver looks like it is forming a H&S top that could target the low 16 again.

ive read some analyst is calling gold is in it's final 5th wave up (if true) it can break 1303 to form a final top so keep this in mind and watch price action

[el_fefes]

I've been watching Canadian Solar and would have bought if I had funds available... CSIQ. Nice pop on the stock so far after earnings.

[BavarianBeast]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast
SCTY is on sale for under $16 :thumbsup:

Should be back over $20 in 2 weeks imho.

Looks like that might only take 2 days :rofl:

[SilverRex]

61% retrace of the entire 3.46-7.84 run for meg is around 5.13 (adding another position here)

also picked up pwt for a small play

[SilverRex]

huge oil draw down on inventory. guess I lucked out lol no, buying purely on technical grounds here

[troyl]

HSE has raised a load of cash from asset sales. Close to $2.5B in the past weeks, maybe they are looking at MEG.....

[SilverRex]

Originally posted by troyl
HSE has raised a load of cash from asset sales. Close to $2.5B in the past weeks, maybe they are looking at MEG.....

it will too funny if Meg suddenly starts getting buy out rumors, one can only hope lol

[phreezee]

I doubt HSE would spend a big chunk of that cash to buy more debt lol.

[Manhattan]

Don't think anyone would buy MEG at this point but there was something on BNN about a MEG & Cenovus merger that would make sense.

[SilverRex]

looks like a breakout to me

if sustainable and does not break below 43 which would be significantly bearish, then the low is in place and we 'should' from a technical view to begin a new leg up towards 50 oil

http://i.imgur.com/mdr6WYI.png

[SilverRex]

if meg closes green it would look fantastic chart wise with a nice reversal candle to attract fund buying

[s_havinga]

GO OIL GO

[riander5]

Oil going to the moon

Completing wave C of correction

[Manhattan]

Originally posted by BavarianBeast


Looks like that might only take 2 days :rofl:

Just one day haha

[ickyflex]

damn MEG lol

Short interest was up quite a bit I heard. I can't find the numbers though

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot
I feel like a battered wife with LABU, but I've been forcing myself to hold the majority of my position. Lets see if this flag gives it another good run.

Hope you arent still holding

[bjstare]

Originally posted by riander5


Hope you arent still holding
:eek:

Am I ever happy I got out of that yesterday.

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5


Hope you arent still holding

I did the worst thing.

Stopped out at 26.5, my plan being if it broke support above that, I'd watch it down and look for a good entrance opportunity.

When XBI poked it's head above the $52.43 resistance on the 15 min chart, all the way up to $52.57, I thought that resistance was broken, and it was going to make a new high.

Jumped back in :cry:

As soon as wave C on the 15 minute chart started to look stupid monsterous, I bailed.

Would have been really, really happy just staying stopped out at $26.5. Need to learn to stick with the plan from the night before and just sit out if things don't go as expected.

I now decided I need a break from biotech and increased my MEG position at the end of the day hoping for a further breakout in oil while I wait for biotech to sort it's shit out and make sense again.

So.... look for a big gap up in LABU tomorrow morning :rofl:

Edit: I should mention I got in at $23.9. So didn't lose, but pissed away a lot of profit (again)

[el_fefes]

What's going on with MEG? Oil goes up, MEG goes down even though they posted a profit?

[riander5]

That blows. At least you can admit your mistakes and hopefully learn from them.

Personally I would have played it a bit more cautious... XBI 1h and 4h being overbought. Also im not sure what pattern this is in now.... the wave A of the correction smashed down far below wave 4 of the previous trend... signalling at the very least it isnt a simple correction anymore.

Ill be keeping my eye on XBI for the 1d 4h and 1h to line up for another buy

Ill also be watching NUGT for some bullish trades in the next few days as well

[bspot]

Originally posted by riander5

Personally I would have played it a bit more cautious... XBI 1h and 4h being overbought.

Just curious how you're seeing that? RSI(14) peaked at about 62 on the 1h chart, but yes, did poke just above 70 on the 4h chart.

Do you normally take profit as soon as you see overbought? What about when a strong uptrend forms and it dips into overbought several times over?

[Manhattan]

Originally posted by el_fefes
What's going on with MEG? Oil goes up, MEG goes down even though they posted a profit?

Everyone wondering the same thing lol. Short answer is too much debt but who knows. In another forum people are convinced it's being manipulated with shorts til a merger comes through to make the premium look substantial.

[bjstare]

Originally posted by bspot


Just curious how you're seeing that? RSI(14) peaked at about 62 on the 1h chart, but yes, did poke just above 70 on the 4h chart.

Do you normally take profit as soon as you see overbought? What about when a strong uptrend forms and it dips into overbought several times over?

RSI (10,2m) got to around 98 near lunchtime..

[suntan]

MEG has serious amounts of debt. Like they have no way out kind of debt unless oil goes back up to $100 tomorrow.

[riander5]

Originally posted by bspot


Just curious how you're seeing that? RSI(14) peaked at about 62 on the 1h chart, but yes, did poke just above 70 on the 4h chart.

Do you normally take profit as soon as you see overbought? What about when a strong uptrend forms and it dips into overbought several times over?

I dont like regular RSI

I use a 3,3,14,14 Stoch RSI - for me the fast line crossed slow signalling a sell on 1H when it opened today. It was hanging around 80 then.

For the 4h it was overbought as well this morning and momentum was dying off and it crossed over in a bearish way today as well.

I definitely wouldnt have had a pre defined sell point, as they say let the trend take you out. Since i didnt do the trade today i cant tell you exactly what i would have done but i imagine after you were up 5-6% from the other day maybe move your stop up?

I havent done alot of these XBI / LABU swings so i dont know how tight my stops would be.. all I know is I am watching NUGT for some swings

edit: one other thing.. if you are trading 15m, the 1h trend is pretty bearish. Iv been making a point of trying to trade the trend. AKA 1h is bearish, so look for a shorting opp in 15m. Or if 1D is bullish, look for bullish buying opp on 1H

I missed a huge trade on Nat Gas last friday cause i was in victoria for a wedding, but 1h, 4h, and 1d all lined up for a big jump (which it did) on my stoch rsi

[riander5]

I was looking at NUGT today when it was up 1-2% considering a buy... never got around to it and it finished up 8%. Easier lamenting not doing the trade than actually pulling trigger though.

[Manhattan]

Originally posted by suntan
MEG has serious amounts of debt. Like they have no way out kind of debt unless oil goes back up to $100 tomorrow.

They have valuable assets also. If they shed some of that they'd be where everyone else is at.

[suntan]

So sell everything, if they're lucky, so they have zero assets and therefore zero cash flow and therefore go bankrupt?

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by suntan
So sell everything, if they're lucky, so they have zero assets and therefore zero cash flow and therefore go bankrupt?

If you were as smart as you think don't you think the market would trade them as if they were going bankrupt. Maybe get the facts correct before you start posting stupid shit.

I'm not saying this because I have capital invested in them, I'm saying this because far too many uneducated people spew information about various companies that is incorrect whether bearish or bullish news.

[suntan]

Originally posted by ickyflex


If you were as smart as you think don't you think the market would trade them as if they were going bankrupt. Maybe get the facts correct before you start posting stupid shit.

I'm not saying this because I have capital invested in them, I'm saying this because far too many uneducated people spew information about various companies that is incorrect whether bearish or bullish news. Have you looked at their one year graph? :rofl:

Their market cap is barely above a billion now on "PV" reserves of $20B. :rofl:

They're one of my clients, believe me they know they're in deep, deep shit.

[ickyflex]

Originally posted by suntan
Have you looked at their one year graph? :rofl:

Have you looked at their financials :dunno:

By that same logic I should have suspected CPG/BTE should have gone bankrupt in 2008...oh wait they made higher highs in a few years.

Your logic is flawed if you look at it that way.

I have nothing else to comment as I can see this is not going to get anywhere with you.

To each their own, I was only suggesting to at least make educated posts because there are people who make decisions based on posts here. Most people genuinely put in good input to their thought processes so I was just advising you do the same.

However, just to add information to support your bearish comments. Here is some backup from First Energy

"Investment Recommendation
With nothing to suggest material changes to our estimates from the 1Q16 release, we are leaving
our target price at $6.00/share with an Underperform ranking, which implies an EV/DACF multiple
of 11.2x for 2017e (20.7x at the futures strip). Our RENAV 10% Atax is now $15.98/share (-$9.01/
share at the futures strip). We believe a sale of MEG’s ownership stake in the Access Pipeline is
more likely to disappoint than surprise to the upside, as history strongly suggests that when compa
-
nies are forced to sell assets, deal terms more often than not disappoint relative to expectations.
At US$70/bbl WTI (USD/CAD 0.90) we compute a Core NAV of $13.30/share, while at US$60/bbl
WTI (USD/CAD 0.85) we compute a Core NAV of $2.35/share. The stock looks to be trading at a
DACF multiple of 7.4x on our 2018e estimates, which employ a US$66.25/bbl WTI forecast (USD/
CAD 0.89). Considering these metrics, we believe the stock is currently being valued based on WTI
prices in the low-mid US$60s/bbl. If one is confident that the Company will effectively manage its
liquidity and per share equity value until we return to those prices, our Underperform ranking may
be wrong. However, with so much of the enterprise value being spoken for by its debt, we consider
this a very high risk equity investment. Selling the pipeline would help reduce debt, but effectively it
is the same thing as taking out an off-balance sheet mortgage."

[oster]

Anyone holding positions in Toro Oil and Gas: TOO ?

Large reserves with little debt... Seems as though they are holding production until the right price point.

[SilverRex]

as expected. biotech indeed fell and broke below the previous day low, while IBB chart has clearer counts, xbi has the same structure and so after it had a failed 5th wave which marked wave A, we should now have printed wave B yesterday.

I am now expecting another 5 wave rally to get back above 53-54. the target is slightly lower given the sell off overshot to the low side. IBB would be around 269

right now this is a bearish case scenario, I have already reduced half of my biotech position and moved into energy as it looks like oil has momentum and energy stocks are oversold.

will be looking to exit all my biotech on next rally and focusing on other sectors until biotech can show some strength and sustainable technical strength

P.S of course if biotech makes a new low, than this path is off the table and it would then appear this sector wants to make an under cut low like what the miners did back in December)

http://i.imgur.com/kZgY8j7.png

[bspot]

I did the same (although a much less graceful biotech exit).

Nice little pop on MEG to open.

If XBI shows support over $51 I'll consider bio again.

[SilverRex]

again after oil holding above 42.5 for 2 weeks it was a matter of time until it broke higher. now that it has, next target should be in the 48s follow by 50

http://i.imgur.com/GZvFZvy.png

[SilverRex]

im tired of Meg giving up all of it's gains, after every pop so I am cashing out 1/3 to start range trading if it falls back 5-7%

[bspot]

I must be learning something! I did the same. Dumped 25% at $5.73.

And it already seems hilarious that I mentioned "Support over $51 for XBI". What a train wreck.

There will be some pretty good opportunities for low entry into LABU. Could be hitting an all time low at this rate :rofl:

[Vanish3d]

shit. Gold just spiked and miners with it. My DUST is looking dusty now
I'll try to hang on to see if it crosses previous high

[SilverRex]

if you recall on the last chart I posted on spx, it was could not break above the down trend line, while the pullback of the suppose sub wave iv was expected. the fact that we have two paths remains unclear.

if an intermediate top is in place, then this recent rally will be viewed as a dead cat bounce or counter trend corrective rally then for the next couple of weeks we will be seeing another 5 wave leg down possible to the 38% retrace level. the idea is that this will be the wave II correction which means a great buying opportunity for the coming wave III rally

however EW count keeps changing and so if the market wants to break higher before falling, then we need to see a good 5 wave structure and also breaking above the trendline.

so keep this two scenario in mind.

http://i.imgur.com/O5K5WwW.png

[bspot]

God dammit.

Added a small position of LABU. :rofl:

$23.15.

Stop set, and I'm going to try not look at this for a week and see what happens.